Match Thread: Wales V Ireland, Millenium Stadium, Sat 12 March 2.30pm, RTE/BBC

Teferi

Wales V Ireland

Date: Saturday, 14 March 2015 - 14.30
Location: Millenium Stadium
Referee: Wayne Barnes

Ireland|Wales
1. Jack McGrath|1. Gethin Jenkins
2. Rory Best|2. Scott Baldwin
3. Mike Ross|3. Samson Lee
4. Devin Toner|4. Luke Charteris
5. Paul O’Connell (C)|5. Alun-Wyn Jones
6. Peter O’Mahoney|6. Dan Lydiate
7. Sean O’Brien|7. Sam Warburton (C)
8. Jamie Heaslip|8. Toby Faletau
9. Conor Murray|9. Rhys Webb
10. Johnny Sexton|10. Dan Biggar
11. Simon Zebo|11. Liam Williams
12. Robbie Henshaw|12. Jamie Roberts
13. Jared Payne|13. Jonathan Davies
14. Tommy Bowe|14. George North
15. Rob Kearney|15. Leigh Halfpenny
Replacements|Replacements
16. Sean Cronin|16. Richard Hibbard
17. Cian Healy|17. Rob Evans
18. Marty Moore|18. Aaron Jarvis
19. Iain Henderson|19. Jake Ball
20. Jordi Murphy|20. Justin Tipuric
21. Eoin Reddan|21. Mike Phillips
22. Ian Madigan|22. Rhys Priestland
23. Felix Jones|23. Scott Williams

This fixture has become increasingly heated over the last few years and Saturday’s showdown will be no different. It’s easy to see why Gatland dislikes us, after all he was unceremoniously dumped early into his term as head coach of Ireland but when exactly the Irish attitude became more frosty towards the Welsh is hard to pinpoint. The Mike Phillips cheating incident, the uncertain loyalties of the Welsh Regions towards the Pro 12, the BOD dropping, there are really any number of sins we could point to. In any case, the teams have been named, the roof will stay open and battle will commence come Saturday afternoon.

Selections

There is actually very little to say that hasn’t been said about the selections this week. Gatland’s team is unchanged after an almost traditional shaky start to the Championship while Joe has made a single change with Heaslip coming back in and Murphy moves to the bench. Tommy O’Donnell is unlucky to be dropped after a magnificent performance against England but such was the heroic showing from Murphy on the same day that he is retained ahead of the young Munster man. McGrath is rightly retained ahead of Healy who was perhaps a little overeager against England leading to a little bit of sloppiness among his usual highlights.

The most glaring issue probably lies in the bench selections which was perhaps shown up slightly in the last 20 minutes of the English game when players were forced to take on unfamiliar roles due to the injuries mounting up. A Fitzgerald or Earls swap for Jones in the 23 jersey would add some welcome variety but Jones suits Schmidts gameplan and as we know he doesn’t seem to make a huge amount of changes in winning teams.

Key Battles

I expect to see Joe continue with the same kicking plan that he has employed throughout this tournament. There is certainly plenty of space to exploit in the Welsh defensive system and Sexton’s kicks will have to be executed inch perfect if we are to thrive, after all the Welsh back three are certainly no slouches under the high ball but neither are the English side that faced us in the Aviva just two weeks ago. The trouble I can see here is the same thing that troubled us in the English game - in a broken field of play the English made plenty of yards and giving someone like North any amount of space to get up to speed is a terrifying prospect so our chase will have to be quick and error free.

The forwards will also play their part in this game and we have an excellent battle between two magnificent sets of back rows but I would like to highlight the lineout here. In this same fixture last year the lineout almost single-handedly won this game for Ireland but it hasn't been as effective this year. Charteris and Jones are no slouches in this aspect of the game so Toner and O'Connell will be looking to put down a marker from the start. If we can't get our maul moving like we did last year we may struggle against the Welsh who love a physical batte.

The centre partnerships come to the fore again with the experienced Roberts/Davies facing off against the fresh faces of Henshaw/Payne. Arguably this will be the Irish pairs biggest test as Roberts and the pack look to send plenty of runners down their channel.

Implications

An Ireland win this weekend all but assures a back-to-back Championship (and dare I say a Grand Slam) so England will be praying for a Welsh victory this weekend. With 3 teams still in the running a loss for Ireland here could make the last weekend of the tournament very interesting indeed.

And look, if this preview hasn't gotten you fired up just remember...

Prediction: The Welsh would love to ruin the party here and I think they’ll give it their best shot. They have home town advantage and I think that will make it close but our lads have the tools to take them apart. Ireland by 5.

Every other nation will be rooting against us...

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Every other nation will be rooting against us...

Ah well, at least now we know what it's like to be England.

phog

News to me but it might been mentioned earlier


Keatley to travel to Wales; Schmidt still to decide on Sexton

Joe Schmidt has said that Ian Keatley is on standby in case Jonathan Sexton cannot play in the Wales clash on Saturday.

The Ireland coach also admitted that they have still "got to make the decision" on whether Sexton is able to take part in the crucial Six Nations Test.

I expected Keatley to travel but thought Sexton was certain to start, now I'm not so sure.

gosplan

Woo! First page.

Hopefully, I'll be trying to relive it all by reading back through this thread in a few days.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

My loins are quivering in anticipation.

Tox56

Deleted User wrote: »

Every other nation will be rooting against us...

Would the Scottish/French/Italians really prefer England win the championship over us..?

.ak

phog wrote: »

News to me but it might been mentioned earlier


Keatley to travel to Wales; Schmidt still to decide on Sexton

I expected Keatley to travel but thought Sexton was certain to start, now I'm not so sure.

That doesn't help my nerves at all.

P_1

.ak wrote: »

That doesn't help my nerves at all.

Yup, quivering wreck mode is fairly engaged now

molloyjh

So Johnny has been named more in hope than expectation possibly? Oh God that is not good. Me nurves. Me bleedin' nurves!

total former

Consensus seems to be that the roof is open because we wouldn't agree to close it; but Howley claims it was their choice.

Given that our game plan is so heavily dependent on precision kicking from our half backs, I'm inclined to believe him.

armchaircoach

If Johnny isn't 100% it makes picking Jones am even weirder call. If Johnny has to come off early then we're relying on Felix to cover a lot of positions that he has little experience in.

The last 1/4 of the England game was very nervy with lots of missed tackles, wouldn't like to see that for any length of time against the Welsh backs.

Celly Smunt

I have a feeling Sexton is in fine form but the attitude is over cautious. After all,Joe isn't going to put himself in the position where he has to come out with the bomb shell that sexton is dropped on match day, its all about preparing a soft landing for the absolute worst, if the absolute worst happens.

Celly Smunt

total former wrote: »

Consensus seems to be that the roof is open because we wouldn't agree to close it; but Howley claims it was their choice.

Given that our game plan is so heavily dependent on precision kicking from our half backs, I'm inclined to believe him.

After being in The millenium stadium a few times I think their plan would bite then in the arse. The wind factor would be minimal and if anything it would be better for them to catch garryowens and the likes with the roof closed (sun etc)

vienne86

Celly Smunt wrote: »

I have a feeling Sexton is in fine form but the attitude is over cautious. After all,Joe isn't going to put himself in the position where he has to come out with the bomb shell that sexton is dropped on match day, its all about preparing a soft landing for the absolute worst, if the absolute worst happens.

I'm inclined to agree with you. And I hope you're right. If Sexton isn't OK for Saturday, that is big trouble for us.

molloyjh

phog wrote: »

News to me but it might been mentioned earlier


Keatley to travel to Wales; Schmidt still to decide on Sexton



I expected Keatley to travel but thought Sexton was certain to start, now I'm not so sure.

Having read that there now and seeing the quotes it sounds like there's no real concern, they are just being prudent.

Wang King

Very nice write up, well done. Hope to be lepping about like a lunatic came 4.30 on Saturday..

CatInABox

Wang King wrote: »

Very nice write up, well done. Hope to be lepping about like a lunatic came 4.30 on Saturday..

Bit of a weird request, but as I've ended up in Paris for the weekend, does anyone know of a good pub that'll have the match on?

Sangre

http://www.kittyosheas.com/paris.asp

Like most Paris pubs - not cheap!

irishbucsfan

total former wrote: »

Consensus seems to be that the roof is open because we wouldn't agree to close it; but Howley claims it was their choice.

Given that our game plan is so heavily dependent on precision kicking from our half backs, I'm inclined to believe him.

The roof open suits our kicking game more than it being class though. A closed roof would certainly have suited the Welsh more than an open one imo

Webbs

Celly Smunt wrote: »

After being in The millenium stadium a few times I think their plan would bite then in the arse. The wind factor would be minimal and if anything it would be better for them to catch garryowens and the likes with the roof closed (sun etc)

But its not really their plan, seems they just wanted to make the decision early, and not wait for Ireland to make their call, which would more than likely be to keep the roof open in anycase

total former

irishbucsfan wrote: »

The roof open suits our kicking game more than it being class though. A closed roof would certainly have suited the Welsh more than an open one imo

But why? Being exposed to the elements surely makes kicking less accurate and catching them more of a lottery? And when your game plan is so reliant on the precision of your kick and chase, as ours is, anything that makes those kicks less precise and recovering possession less likely is a bad thing, no?

irishbucsfan

total former wrote: »

But why? Being exposed to the elements surely makes kicking less accurate and catching them more of a lottery? And when your game plan is so reliant on the precision of your kick and chase, as ours is, anything that makes those kicks less precise and recovering possession less likely is a bad thing, no?

Our kicking game isn't as dependent on us recovering possession from our kicking as much as it is dependent on ensuring that the opposition's first phase is as disrupted as possible, that's where the value comes from. Recovering possession from a kick is great obviously, but winning a penalty from forcing an error directly after a reception grants even more value a lot of the time. So the less comfortable receiving kicks is, the better for us.

.ak

Also the roof being closed makes the place a sweatbox, slippy ball etc

irishbucsfan

.ak wrote: »

Also the roof being closed makes the place a sweatbox, slippy ball etc

I have never noticed that myself in there, I must say. Does closing the roof really affect the humidity?

Celly Smunt

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I have never noticed that myself in there, I must say. Does closing the roof really affect the humidity?

It's always been fairly cold when i've been there and never noticed the humidity. Maybe it's different when your chasing a ball for 80 minutes instead of drinking though.

Tox56

Tox56 wrote: »

Would the Scottish/French/Italians really prefer England win the championship over us..?

If I'm not mistaken a Welsh victory means France, England and Wales can win the championship

I am mistaken, France are pretty much out of the running

total former

Technically Italy can still win the championship too.

shuffol

They have to open the roof to stop the ball bouncing off it every time we have possession.

aimee1

total former wrote: »

But why? Being exposed to the elements surely makes kicking less accurate and catching them more of a lottery? And when your game plan is so reliant on the precision of your kick and chase, as ours is, anything that makes those kicks less precise and recovering possession less likely is a bad thing, no?

our kicking game worked well against france and england and we dont have a roof on the aviva.

.ak

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I have never noticed that myself in there, I must say. Does closing the roof really affect the humidity?

I've actually never played there so I couldn't tell you.

But apparently that's the gas. It's living grass, moist soil, big lights, etc. Supposed to make the ball a tad greasy. Doubt you'd notice it in the stands tho.

thomond2006

IF...IF Keatley had to start, I don't think Ireland would play in the same fashion that they did against England and France under Sexton.

total former

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Our kicking game isn't as dependent on us recovering possession from our kicking as much as it is dependent on ensuring that the opposition's first phase is as disrupted as possible, that's where the value comes from. Recovering possession from a kick is great obviously, but winning a penalty from forcing an error directly after a reception grants even more value a lot of the time. So the less comfortable receiving kicks is, the better for us.

Hmmm, fair enough, but I just think if you're trying to land the ball in a specific spot on the pitch, as we do, then the absence of wind would make that easier.

Anyhoo, given the fact that the Welsh backs, particularly their back three, will be vastly more comfortable under the high ball than either the French or English, and their back row will do a much better job of clearing out rucks and securing possession too, so I would hope we see a more varied game plan tomorrow.

Micky Dolenz

Enjoyed the write up Teferi. Good work.

This is the game I was always most anxious of after weekend 1. I always believed we could turn England and France over at home. Things are going to get hairy tomorrow but I think we have enough to see off the welsh.

I really hope so, have a few Welsh mates heading over for the Italy game. Could be a very interesting weekend depending on tomorrow's results.

Might have to avoid this thread until tomorrow. The bloody anxiety.

I must have heard it from 20 different people this week "I'm nervous about this game".

On the Sexton thing. It would be bad. BUT. I'd rather test our mettle now against a good team without Sexton and see how we fair, than have to do it during the World Cup if forced to by injury.

19543261

No anxiety here. We'll win convincingly.

thomond2006

Deleted User wrote: »

Might have to avoid this thread until tomorrow. The bloody anxiety.

I must have heard it from 20 different people this week "I'm nervous about this game".

On the Sexton thing. It would be bad. BUT. I'd rather test our mettle now against a good team without Sexton and see how we fair, than have to do it during the World Cup if forced to by injury.

Tbh I cannot think about the World Cup.

All I'm thinking about now is Gatland, Rowley, Edwards and Delon Williams. Let's smash 'em.

.ak

Deleted User wrote: »

Might have to avoid this thread until tomorrow. The bloody anxiety.

I must have heard it from 20 different people this week "I'm nervous about this game".

On the Sexton thing. It would be bad. BUT. I'd rather test our mettle now against a good team without Sexton and see how we fair, than have to do it during the World Cup if forced to by injury.

I don't think there'll ever be a time when either Keatley or Madigan are dumped into the deep end like this and turn out with the goods. I think they could possible push themselves to do a good job, but they'll never get the team moving around the park like Sexton does - there's no point in dropping them into it now or during the WC. The experience will help, yes, but I just don't think they can get that extra level. In short, if we're without Sexton or Jackson I can't see us playing to our potential.

I think Jackson coming back from injury is crucial. He's actually a bit of a winner in this whole situation...

Akrasia

.ak wrote: »

I don't think there'll ever be a time when either Keatley or Madigan are dumped into the deep end like this and turn out with the goods. I think they could possible push themselves to do a good job, but they'll never get the team moving around the park like Sexton does - there's no point in dropping them into it now or during the WC. The experience will help, yes, but I just don't think they can get that extra level. In short, if we're without Sexton or Jackson I can't see us playing to our potential.

I think Jackson coming back from injury is crucial. He's actually a bit of a winner in this whole situation...

Yeah. Keatley and Madigan are not international class number 10s, nowhere near consistent enough and they lack crucial skills

I think JJ Hanrahan will be grow as a player at Northampton and in a few years and he will push Jackson for his place as second choice number 10

.ak

19543261 wrote: »

No anxiety here. We'll win convincingly.

That's why I'm anxious.

I think it's probably because Wales are pretty much on par with us, often the over-achievers and often looked as weaker celtic sides but capable of going toe to toe with the best when called for. They're a very, very good team and we shouldn't take them lightly. They won't fall for the same tricks we threw at them last year; they'll deal with our maul, and they won't blitz us allowing space behind again. If they do they deserve to lose, but Edwards is far too good to let that happen.

The biggest thing that sticks out in my mind is the RWC. They have a habit of upsetting our run when we can see the finish line. We need to appreciate how capable they are at turning us over. It feels like a proper derby, we know each other so well, be it through the league or the Lions.

I really can't see anything being convincing. I'm more nervous about this game than I was England or France, mostly because they're at home, and mostly because I feel they probably think they owe us. This feels more like a grudge match than the 'old enemy' that is England. They also will be thinking of 2013 when they lost to us at home on the 1st round but won the tournament anyway. They've mentioned it a few times, they have massive belief that they can win this championship and winning away to France in such a dominant display of power probably vindicates that feeling a little bit.

This will be harder than the other games for another reason, against France and England we had the luxury of dealing with some relatively raw backs. Spedding, Thomas, JJ, Burrell, Nowell, Watson etc. even Goode who had a decent game wouldn't be considered a veteran. A massive amount of our gameplan is targeting the backs and sending some big aerial competition down their throat and force the pack to move around the park.

With Williams (who's in massively good form despite his low caps), Halfpenny and North we just won't have that luxury. They also have two big tall lads just like we do in their midfield. So we won't be applying much pressure there.

The pack may be even but I have their backs as an advantage. In the other thread we were discussing adding something else to our arsenal, and SaveOurLyric was making the point that why change it if it's working. Well, to point I would agree, but I think a good coach knows when to change his tactics and have a different gameplan to implement. My biggest criticism of the last management was that they didn't know when to adjust the gameplan. Declan Kidney admitted as much in a post match interview, saying that very little of the prep work concentrated on the opposition and that they mostly worked on their own game plan. As we know Schmidt is very different in that regard, most of his work is done in the video room and they'll be studying Wales for any chink in the armour. I think we did an excellent job in identifying those chinks last year, so I'm hoping we do that again - and if it calls for a change in tactics so be it.

Interestingly Gatland has come out and said something similar to DK - that they don't pay attention to what Ireland are doing and are concentrating on their own house. Now as he said this prior to the game then I would say it's a bit of hot wind for mind games. I'd say they're very much aware of what we want to do and are working on how to stop it and counter it. The fact we've named a practically unchanged XV will give them a bit of hope they're right.

This game for me will be absolutely fascinating.

Micky Dolenz

.ak wrote: »

That's why I'm anxious.

I think it's probably because Wales are pretty much on par with us, often the over-achievers and often looked as weaker celtic sides but capable of going toe to toe with the best when called for. They're a very, very good team and we shouldn't take them lightly. They won't fall for the same tricks we threw at them last year; they'll deal with our maul, and they won't blitz us allowing space behind again. If they do they deserve to lose, but Edwards is far too good to let that happen.

The biggest thing that sticks out in my mind is the RWC. They have a habit of upsetting our run when we can see the finish line. We need to appreciate how capable they are at turning us over. It feels like a proper derby, we know each other so well, be it through the league or the Lions.

I really can't see anything being convincing. I'm more nervous about this game than I was England or France, mostly because they're at home, and mostly because I feel they probably think they owe us. This feels more like a grudge match than the 'old enemy' that is England. They also will be thinking of 2013 when they lost to us at home on the 1st round but won the tournament anyway. They've mentioned it a few times, they have massive belief that they can win this championship and winning away to France in such a dominant display of power probably vindicates that feeling a little bit.

This will be harder than the other games for another reason, against France and England we had the luxury of dealing with some relatively raw backs. Spedding, Thomas, JJ, Burrell, Nowell, Watson etc. even Goode who had a decent game wouldn't be considered a veteran. A massive amount of our gameplan is targeting the backs and sending some big aerial competition down their throat and force the pack to move around the park.

With Williams (who's in massively good form despite his low caps), Halfpenny and North we just won't have that luxury. They also have two big tall lads just like we do in their midfield. So we won't be applying much pressure there.

The pack may be even but I have their backs as an advantage. In the other thread we were discussing adding something else to our arsenal, and SaveOurLyric was making the point that why change it if it's working. Well, to point I would agree, but I think a good coach knows when to change his tactics and have a different gameplan to implement. My biggest criticism of the last management was that they didn't know when to adjust the gameplan. Declan Kidney admitted as much in a post match interview, saying that very little of the prep work concentrated on the opposition and that they mostly worked on their own game plan. As we know Schmidt is very different in that regard, most of his work is done in the video room and they'll be studying Wales for any chink in the armour. I think we did an excellent job in identifying those chinks last year, so I'm hoping we do that again - and if it calls for a change in tactics so be it.

Interestingly Gatland has come out and said something similar to DK - that they don't pay attention to what Ireland are doing and are concentrating on their own house. Now as he said this prior to the game then I would say it's a bit of hot wind for mind games. I'd say they're very much aware of what we want to do and are working on how to stop it and counter it. The fact we've named a practically unchanged XV will give them a bit of hope they're right.

This game for me will be absolutely fascinating.

You're dead right and this fixture has become a huge derby over the years. I've always been a big fan of Welsh rugby and beating them is sweet, it's got to te stage it's nearly as sweet as beating the English.

.ak

Akrasia wrote: »

Yeah. Keatley and Madigan are not international class number 10s, nowhere near consistent enough and they lack crucial skills

I think JJ Hanrahan will be grow as a player at Northampton and in a few years and he will push Jackson for his place as second choice number 10

It'll be interesting. I think JJ will thrive in the premiership, I just hope he gets game time there.

But for me I think someone like Byrne is far more equipped for international rugby, especially the way the game is going. The modern 10 needs to be big, directional, not play the gain line every 2nd phase, and be able to slow the game down a bit and evaluate the options.

The days of Carlos Spencers are gone. It's something I see a lot of SH fans finding hard to understand - a lot of them don't rate Sexton because he isn't a silky runner with a vicious step. I reckon in 10 years time they'll be looking back at Sexton as the one who pioneered the modern 10; a big unit who can attack the line but more importantly knows how to put the ball around the park through the hands and feet in a method that eliminates threat from the opposition. You can already see it in emerging players like Pollard and Byrne. I think Pollard in particular is going to be a bit special. He's so comfortable and relaxed behind the pack even when people get into his face, because he's comfortable his physicality.

In short, I think guys like JJ, Madigan and Cruden will fall away from the international stage and guys like Byrne and Pollard with flourish.

.ak

thomond2006 wrote: »

IF...IF Keatley had to start, I don't think Ireland would play in the same fashion that they did against England and France under Sexton.

I very much doubt the pack would give the ball to anyone other than Murray until the Welsh tired.

BoardsMember

As the scousers would say .ak, calm down calm down lad!!

While they might have better outside backs on balance, I'd say our half backs are without question better than theirs and that's key. I'd also slightly favour our tight five, our scrum and our lineout. The backrow could go either way, but there is likely to be turnovers and penalties on both sides, considering Barnes has the whistle.

Ok, so I am bricking it too, but I am very hopeful.

.ak

.ak wrote: »

It'll be interesting. I think JJ will thrive in the premiership, I just hope he gets game time there.

But for me I think someone like Byrne is far more equipped for international rugby, especially the way the game is going. The modern 10 needs to be big, directional, not play the gain line every 2nd phase, and be able to slow the game down a bit and evaluate the options.

The days of Carlos Spencers are gone. It's something I see a lot of SH fans finding hard to understand - a lot of them don't rate Sexton because he isn't a silky runner with a vicious step. I reckon in 10 years time they'll be looking back at Sexton as the one who pioneered the modern 10; a big unit who can attack the line but more importantly knows how to put the ball around the park through the hands and feet in a method that eliminates threat from the opposition. You can already see it in emerging players like Pollard and Byrne. I think Pollard in particular is going to be a bit special. He's so comfortable and relaxed behind the pack even when people get into his face, because he's comfortable his physicality.

In short, I think guys like JJ, Madigan and Cruden will fall away from the international stage and guys like Byrne and Pollard with flourish.

while i agree to an extent i think there will always be a place for a out half like them at the very least having a guy like that coming off the bench with 20 mins left can be disastrous for the opposition and given the right backline they can definetly start guys like michalak and contepomi will always be a nightmare for the oppostion if you put an exiting backline around them.

the ability to manage the game will always be important but theres no reason that both styles of oh can manage the game to the same level

Swiwi.

thomond2006 wrote: »

IF...IF Keatley had to start, I don't think Ireland would play in the same fashion that they did against England and France under Sexton.

...could...

IK just doesn't have the same kicking quality as Sexton.

.ak

BoardsMember wrote: »

As the scousers would say .ak, calm down calm down lad!!

While they might have better outside backs on balance, I'd say our half backs are without question better than theirs and that's key. I'd also slightly favour our tight five, our scrum and our lineout. The backrow could go either way, but there is likely to be turnovers and penalties on both sides, considering Barnes has the whistle.

Ok, so I am bricking it too, but I am very hopeful.

Oh yeah, I don't think they have an advantage over us or anything, but I do think their outside backs are better than ours. We have Kearney and Henshaw in super form so it's not a total advantage but Bowe has been misfiring and Zebo's work rate has been great but he's not on the same par as Williams right now.

My point is our kick and apply pressure game will not come off as well against these guys. Any errors and we could concede a try. I'm hoping we can change it up a bit if necessary - well, I KNOW we can, because we haven't been playing the same game plan over the last 10 wins, so it'll be interesting to see how it goes.

Swiwi.

.ak wrote: »

That's why I'm anxious.

I think it's probably because Wales are pretty much on par with us, often the over-achievers and often looked as weaker celtic sides but capable of going toe to toe with the best when called for. They're a very, very good team and we shouldn't take them lightly. They won't fall for the same tricks we threw at them last year; they'll deal with our maul, and they won't blitz us allowing space behind again. If they do they deserve to lose, but Edwards is far too good to let that happen.

The biggest thing that sticks out in my mind is the RWC. They have a habit of upsetting our run when we can see the finish line. We need to appreciate how capable they are at turning us over. It feels like a proper derby, we know each other so well, be it through the league or the Lions.

I really can't see anything being convincing. I'm more nervous about this game than I was England or France, mostly because they're at home, and mostly because I feel they probably think they owe us. This feels more like a grudge match than the 'old enemy' that is England. They also will be thinking of 2013 when they lost to us at home on the 1st round but won the tournament anyway. They've mentioned it a few times, they have massive belief that they can win this championship and winning away to France in such a dominant display of power probably vindicates that feeling a little bit.

This will be harder than the other games for another reason, against France and England we had the luxury of dealing with some relatively raw backs. Spedding, Thomas, JJ, Burrell, Nowell, Watson etc. even Goode who had a decent game wouldn't be considered a veteran. A massive amount of our gameplan is targeting the backs and sending some big aerial competition down their throat and force the pack to move around the park.

With Williams (who's in massively good form despite his low caps), Halfpenny and North we just won't have that luxury. They also have two big tall lads just like we do in their midfield. So we won't be applying much pressure there.

The pack may be even but I have their backs as an advantage. In the other thread we were discussing adding something else to our arsenal, and SaveOurLyric was making the point that why change it if it's working. Well, to point I would agree, but I think a good coach knows when to change his tactics and have a different gameplan to implement. My biggest criticism of the last management was that they didn't know when to adjust the gameplan. Declan Kidney admitted as much in a post match interview, saying that very little of the prep work concentrated on the opposition and that they mostly worked on their own game plan. As we know Schmidt is very different in that regard, most of his work is done in the video room and they'll be studying Wales for any chink in the armour. I think we did an excellent job in identifying those chinks last year, so I'm hoping we do that again - and if it calls for a change in tactics so be it.

Interestingly Gatland has come out and said something similar to DK - that they don't pay attention to what Ireland are doing and are concentrating on their own house. Now as he said this prior to the game then I would say it's a bit of hot wind for mind games. I'd say they're very much aware of what we want to do and are working on how to stop it and counter it. The fact we've named a practically unchanged XV will give them a bit of hope they're right.

This game for me will be absolutely fascinating.

Could u please put a table of contents, chapter headings and an index. Thanks.

.ak

Swiwi. wrote: »

Could u please put a table of contents, chapter headings and an index. Thanks.

tl;dr: me nurves!

BoardsMember

.ak wrote: »

Oh yeah, I don't think they have an advantage over us or anything, but I do think their outside backs are better than ours. We have Kearney and Henshaw in super form so it's not a total advantage but Bowe has been misfiring and Zebo's work rate has been great but he's not on the same par as Williams right now.

My point is our kick and apply pressure game will not come off as well against these guys. Any errors and we could concede a try. I'm hoping we can change it up a bit if necessary - well, I KNOW we can, because we haven't been playing the same game plan over the last 10 wins, so it'll be interesting to see how it goes.

Yeah, the Wales kicking game, or rather their response to someone kicking the ball to them, is often very good. They have guys who can thump it very long, then if we counter with an up and under we have net field position loss where penalties or loss of ball can cause serious problems. I actually think we will play ball in hand a good bit more this time out.

Agreed re Bowe, doesn't look to be playing with a huge amount of confidence, he's been steady more than anything.

I think Zebo's last game was his best in a green shirt, so hopefully more of that to come tomorrow, I sort of have a feeling that he's taken to Schmidt's approach, the guy clearly has buckets of natural ability, being around young lads like Henshaw who have bought into this approach and work their socks off probably is great for him.

Podge_irl

.ak wrote: »

The biggest thing that sticks out in my mind is the RWC. They have a habit of upsetting our run when we can see the finish line

That was an Irish team with a bad halfback pairing and a useless game plan. It's just not relevant.

I'm anxious insomuch as I am before any game, but I just don't think Wales have looked all that good this championship.