Who from First Day Big Four Favs Will be Beaten?

jimjamcos

They're obviously not all going to win but I am really struggling to see Un De Sceaux, Annie Power and Faugheen beaten. In one word, which of the Mullins hotpots will let the multi-backers down. For me its definitely,

Douvan.

handsfree2

jimjamcos wrote: »

They're obviously not all going to win but I am really struggling to see Un De Sceaux, Annie Power and Faugheen beaten. In one word, which of the Mullins hotpots will let the multi-backers down. For me its definitely,

Douvan.

I think douvan is the most likely then faugheen.

Moon Dice

Douvan and Faugheen most vulnerable

posturingpat

Agree with you all lads. Un De sceaux the only one i'd be totally shocked if he gets beat(barring accidents/pulling up lame)

BumperD

Douvan

JAORTA

Why cant they all win?Look at each horse/race on its own merits,If you are finding it so hard
to find which one loses back them in an accumulator...I have.

andyman

Douvan for me as well.

Faugheen is vulnerable too.

ShaneU

None (hopefully)

DylanAFC

Douvan and especially Faugheen.

When push comes to shove I'm not sure about Faugheen climbing that hill come winning time.

Huntley

Douvan is the biggest price. Faugheen the next biggest. People will just follow the betting as is evident in however many have posted already.

If I knew something was going to get at UDS from the off I'd happily take him on. Could envisage him bulldozing one if he was being harried. Annie Power is going to be pulling for the rafters, she'll likely fluff a few hurdles as well along the way. Probably nothing to beat her in the mares but she'd do well to place in a World Hurdle if they had went there first time up.

BumperD

Douvan is the least experienced, and up against the most opposition, in terms of numbers. Thats why I chose him, no other reason.

The op asked for one word. That's what I gave. No intrigue or mystery, as evidenced above. Real simple.

Shemale

Huntley wrote: »

Douvan is the biggest price. Faugheen the next biggest. People will just follow the betting as is evident in however many have posted already.

If I knew something was going to get at UDS from the off I'd happily take him on. Could envisage him bulldozing one if he was being harried. Annie Power is going to be pulling for the rafters, she'll likely fluff a few hurdles as well along the way. Probably nothing to beat her in the mares but she'd do well to place in a World Hurdle if they had went there first time up.

I am not backing Faugheen or Douvan.

UDS has everything in his race covered on all known form and will take a serious horse to try harry him up front.
Annie Power has the easiest race
Douvan has only been seen on soft and his action has me concerned he is at his best on slower ground at the price
Faugheen has improved a lot but if Jezki can reproduce his run last year, Faugheen is going to have to be awesome. Last year Faugheen pulled out a gap impressively turning in and at the line the gap was about the same. It's hard to know if Faugheen can find more if something comes to him.

jimjamcos

Shemale wrote: »

I am not backing Faugheen or Douvan.

UDS has everything in his race covered on all known form and will take a serious horse to try harry him up front.
Annie Power has the easiest race
Douvan has only been seen on soft and his action has me concerned he is at his best on slower ground at the price
Faugheen has improved a lot but if Jezki can reproduce his run last year, Faugheen is going to have to be awesome. Last year Faugheen pulled out a gap impressively turning in and at the line the gap was about the same. It's hard to know if Faugheen can find more if something comes to him.

He can.

Shemale

jimjamcos wrote: »

He can.

The Candyman?

He hasn't had a Jezki near him yet.

Harry Angstrom

Un De Sceaux's jumping is a slight worry. It's not that he's a bad jumper but he's a buzzy type and he'll most probably go arse over tit a few times in his steeplechasing career. Combining Boyle and Paddy Power money back specials (as free bets) for the Arkle should lock in a profit of sorts, whether he stays on his feet or not.


Annie Power looks bombproof, even though I'm not a fan of the mares' race.

Trouble in P

They'll all win.
Douvan - Unbeaten, Willie Mullins rates very very highly.
Un De Sceaux - Only thing that can beat him is himself.
Faugheen - Unbeaten, competitive (3 horse) race, Ruby chooses him over Hurricane Fly, thats nearly always informative.
Annie Power - Easy race the mare is a machine. It'll be something else if the "Willie Mullins Hotpot Accum" comes boiling down to this race.

posturingpat

Seriously lads,without meaning to sound like an old fogey but people are so naiive with regards punting. No matter how many sure things get turned over people keep getting caught up in the hype and doing ridiculous accumulators, I'd say any impotent bookies don't need any Viagra this week with the horn they're getting thinking of these hotpot accumulators that never come up.

zpehtsfd

posturingpat wrote: »

Seriously lads,without meaning to sound like an old fogey but people are so naiive with regards punting. No matter how many sure things get turned over people keep getting caught up in the hype and doing ridiculous accumulators, I'd say any impotent bookies don't need any Viagra this week with the horn they're getting thinking of these hotpot accumulators that never come up.

If you told most of these punters that the chance of getting the 4 up was less then 10% they would not believe you. They'd probably tell you that, well Annie Power & UDS are certainties, Douvan is the best WPM as ever had going to Cheltenham and Faugheen is a machine, so no chance it is that low. The odds are secondary to most of these bettors and while it is a bit of fun and harmless this is a zero-sum game and the bookies are banking.

zpehtsfd

Trouble in P wrote: »

Annie Power - Easy race the mare is a machine. It'll be something else if the "Willie Mullins Hotpot Accum" comes boiling down to this race.

Of all the 4 she'd definitely be the one i'd want to fill the acc. Don't think i could watch UDS running if it was all riding on him. He's a firecracker. :eek:

CheltenhamJ

Douvan unproven and half the price of vautour last year , poor value but doesn't mean that he doesn't win !!! Intringuing but think another Mullins entry might do douvan in first and other three will win

mdwexford

All 4 have question marks against them and all 4 are woefully short.

jimjamcos

Lads, the topic is, in one word, simply who you think will lose, not a discussion on how they're too shirt or the flaws of backing such shorties.

Denman2008

I think Douvan will get beat. Hype horse

Gregk961

jimjamcos wrote: »

Lads, the topic is, in one word, simply who you think will lose, not a discussion on how they're too shirt or the flaws of backing such shorties.

Its a redundant question if there is not debate, nobody can dispute its

Douvan

handsfree2

Huntley wrote: »

Douvan is the biggest price. Faugheen the next biggest. People will just follow the betting as is evident in however many have posted already.

You've got it the wrong way around, the price follows sentiment rather than the other way around.

The decision to place a bet happens before the money required to drive the price is wagered.

It's funny that you thought people just looked at the prices and made their decision.

Huntley

handsfree2 wrote: »

You've got it the wrong way around, the price follows sentiment rather than the other way around.

The decision to place a bet happens before the money required to drive the price is wagered.

It's funny that you thought people just looked at the prices and made their decision.

Who is the most vulnerable of the 7/4, 5/4 or 8/13 shots. A significant majority will pick the 7/4 shot. People might have more qualms about him but that's factored in to the price.

It's good to think outside the box. If you find yourself agreeing with the monotonous, majority viewpoints it probably means you struggle to find an angle to make this pay consistently. That isn't so funny, as you may or may not be aware of.

This isn't what the thread is about so I'll say no more.

The jock

Annie Power wont win.
Glens Melody will.

fuzzydunlop85

For anyone doing this accum in the Armagh/Monaghan area the local bookie in Keady is going 20/1.

handsfree2

Huntley wrote: »

Who is the most vulnerable of the 7/4, 5/4 or 8/13 shots. A significant majority will pick the 7/4 shot. People might have more qualms about him but that's factored in to the price.

It's good to think outside the box. If you find yourself agreeing with the monotonous, majority viewpoints it probably means you struggle to find an angle to make this pay consistently. That isn't so funny, as you may or may not be aware of.

This isn't what the thread is about so I'll say no more.

What you said here is waffle.

I enjoyed your thread last year so Iets leave it at that.

DylanAFC

What do ye think the SPs of the 4 will be?

mr.jingle

DylanAFC wrote: »

What do ye think the SPs of the 4 will be?

Really think it all depends on how Douvan does. If he wins UDS will drop under 1/2 i think, if UDS wins Faugheen will go off 4/6 and if he goes in AP will go 1/2 aswell as I think there are so many multiples and the bookies will be rightly sh!tt!ng themselves.

If Douvan loses I can see them taking on UDS and 4/5 may be available, Faugheen around evs but AP will stay around 4/6 imo

shamdrog63

Annie Power hasn,t run all season UDS has fallen & faugheen has beaten nothing so for me Douvan is the 1 that has the least questionmarks.

The Mig

DylanAFC wrote: »

Douvan and especially Faugheen.

When push comes to shove I'm not sure about Faugheen climbing that hill come winning time.

Didn't bother him last year :P

andyman

Faugheen getting up the hill isn't what worries me, it's getting over the flights and getting as far as the hill.

Shemale

andyman wrote: »

Faugheen getting up the hill isn't what worries me, it's getting over the flights and getting as far as the hill.

Plenty being made of last year, he made his move an quickened well but then flattened out, wont get away with that tomorrow.

andyman

I'm backing Jezki either way

JP Liz V1

Faugheen

Harry Angstrom

The jock wrote: »

Annie Power wont win.
Glens Melody will.

7/4 Glens without Annie Power is the better bet, IMO.

DylanAFC

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

7/4 Glens without Annie Power is the better bet, IMO.

Paddy Power laying 6/1 about Glens Melody and Douvan @ 2/1 now.

barney4001

having read all the comments made about horses and form from latest runnings,i think tomorrow will be a very big day for favourite backers and i can easily envisage all 7 of the market leaders going in,has it ever been done before on the opening day before, or on any day of this meeting

Harry Angstrom

barney4001 wrote: »

having read all the comments made about horses and form from latest runnings,i think tomorrow will be a very big day for favourite backers and i can easily envisage all 7 of the market leaders going in,has it ever been done before on the opening day before, or on any day of this meeting

You can easily envisage all 7 favs winning?? Good luck with that!

andyman

Lads, this is slowly turning into a Day 1 general discussion.

All Day 1 discussion in its relevant thread that has been opened please. If the day 1 discussion continues in here I'll close the thread

saywhatyousee

Wonder what price you would get for all sp favorites to place ?

barney4001

sorry about that post in wrong thread barney

JP Liz V1

Did anyone pick Annie Power

JAORTA

no!!!

jimjamcos

There was always going to be one. Never thought it would be Annie though and it cost me.

The jock

The jock wrote: »

Annie Power wont win.
Glens Melody will.

Boom!!!

jimjamcos

The jock wrote: »

Boom!!!

Fairplay but Jesus, you got a chunk of luck!

The jock

jimjamcos wrote: »

Fairplay but Jesus, you got a chunk of luck!

Sure did ha.

Managed to get the tri-cast in the race.

Would of won nothing if Annie stood up.

jimjamcos

That time of year again. Who from Mullins four big day 1 favs will be beaten? I'm actually more confident than last time round.

Min: Henderson's two are being talked up but Min's form just looks better and better and he couldn't have won his starts so far any easier with stronger pace of Supreme sure to suit. Winner IMO

Douvan: Was originally a bit worried about his jumping but he's some beast and looks sure to scare aware most of opposition. Winner

Annie Power: I see a lot of people are crabbing her given her prep and lack of recent 2m runs but she's definitely the most likely winner IMO. Identity Thief's form in just beating Top Notch and losing to Nichols Canyon when having every chances makes him hard to fancy. Don't see why he'll improve that much for better ground given he's travelled so well on soft. NC rates the biggest danger for me but his standout form in open company was against a fat Faugheen (Wicklow Brave close up that day shows that form of race untrustworthy) and I'm not sure he's made for Cheltenham undulations. Also, if Willie and Ruby really believed he was a bonified CH winner, they wouldn't ask connections of AP to fork out 20k with other races for her taking. The New One still doesn't look right while MTOY has it all to prove, regardless of previous class. Think Ruby will give Annie a carbon copy of Faugheen ride last year and lead from start to finish. Can't see anything finishing stronger than her.

Vroum Vroum Mag: Will face plenty of the mares she beat easily lto, ground shouldn't be an issue and coming back to 2m4 should be a positive if anything. Wins.


4/4 for me.