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Who from First Day Big Four Favs Will be Beaten?

  • 07-03-2015 5:24pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,224
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    They're obviously not all going to win but I am really struggling to see Un De Sceaux, Annie Power and Faugheen beaten. In one word, which of the Mullins hotpots will let the multi-backers down. For me its definitely,

    Douvan.


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 298 handsfree2
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    jimjamcos wrote: »
    They're obviously not all going to win but I am really struggling to see Un De Sceaux, Annie Power and Faugheen beaten. In one word, which of the Mullins hotpots will let the multi-backers down. For me its definitely,

    Douvan.

    I think douvan is the most likely then faugheen.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 191 Moon Dice
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    Douvan and Faugheen most vulnerable


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,722 posturingpat
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    Agree with you all lads. Un De sceaux the only one i'd be totally shocked if he gets beat(barring accidents/pulling up lame)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,681 BumperD
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    Douvan


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33 JAORTA


    Why cant they all win?Look at each horse/race on its own merits,If you are finding it so hard
    to find which one loses back them in an accumulator...I have.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,641 andyman
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    Douvan for me as well.

    Faugheen is vulnerable too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,024 ShaneU
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    None (hopefully)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 406 DylanAFC
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    Douvan and especially Faugheen.

    When push comes to shove I'm not sure about Faugheen climbing that hill come winning time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 Huntley
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    Douvan is the biggest price. Faugheen the next biggest. People will just follow the betting as is evident in however many have posted already.

    If I knew something was going to get at UDS from the off I'd happily take him on. Could envisage him bulldozing one if he was being harried. Annie Power is going to be pulling for the rafters, she'll likely fluff a few hurdles as well along the way. Probably nothing to beat her in the mares but she'd do well to place in a World Hurdle if they had went there first time up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,681 BumperD
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    Douvan is the least experienced, and up against the most opposition, in terms of numbers. Thats why I chose him, no other reason.

    The op asked for one word. That's what I gave. No intrigue or mystery, as evidenced above. Real simple.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 Shemale
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    Huntley wrote: »
    Douvan is the biggest price. Faugheen the next biggest. People will just follow the betting as is evident in however many have posted already.

    If I knew something was going to get at UDS from the off I'd happily take him on. Could envisage him bulldozing one if he was being harried. Annie Power is going to be pulling for the rafters, she'll likely fluff a few hurdles as well along the way. Probably nothing to beat her in the mares but she'd do well to place in a World Hurdle if they had went there first time up.

    I am not backing Faugheen or Douvan.

    UDS has everything in his race covered on all known form and will take a serious horse to try harry him up front.
    Annie Power has the easiest race
    Douvan has only been seen on soft and his action has me concerned he is at his best on slower ground at the price
    Faugheen has improved a lot but if Jezki can reproduce his run last year, Faugheen is going to have to be awesome. Last year Faugheen pulled out a gap impressively turning in and at the line the gap was about the same. It's hard to know if Faugheen can find more if something comes to him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,224 jimjamcos
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    Shemale wrote: »
    I am not backing Faugheen or Douvan.

    UDS has everything in his race covered on all known form and will take a serious horse to try harry him up front.
    Annie Power has the easiest race
    Douvan has only been seen on soft and his action has me concerned he is at his best on slower ground at the price
    Faugheen has improved a lot but if Jezki can reproduce his run last year, Faugheen is going to have to be awesome. Last year Faugheen pulled out a gap impressively turning in and at the line the gap was about the same. It's hard to know if Faugheen can find more if something comes to him.

    He can.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 Shemale
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    jimjamcos wrote: »
    He can.

    The Candyman?

    He hasn't had a Jezki near him yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 Harry Angstrom
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    Un De Sceaux's jumping is a slight worry. It's not that he's a bad jumper but he's a buzzy type and he'll most probably go arse over tit a few times in his steeplechasing career. Combining Boyle and Paddy Power money back specials (as free bets) for the Arkle should lock in a profit of sorts, whether he stays on his feet or not.


    Annie Power looks bombproof, even though I'm not a fan of the mares' race.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 100 Trouble in P
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    They'll all win.
    Douvan - Unbeaten, Willie Mullins rates very very highly.
    Un De Sceaux - Only thing that can beat him is himself.
    Faugheen - Unbeaten, competitive (3 horse) race, Ruby chooses him over Hurricane Fly, thats nearly always informative.
    Annie Power - Easy race the mare is a machine. It'll be something else if the "Willie Mullins Hotpot Accum" comes boiling down to this race.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,722 posturingpat
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    Seriously lads,without meaning to sound like an old fogey but people are so naiive with regards punting. No matter how many sure things get turned over people keep getting caught up in the hype and doing ridiculous accumulators, I'd say any impotent bookies don't need any Viagra this week with the horn they're getting thinking of these hotpot accumulators that never come up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 627 zpehtsfd
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    Seriously lads,without meaning to sound like an old fogey but people are so naiive with regards punting. No matter how many sure things get turned over people keep getting caught up in the hype and doing ridiculous accumulators, I'd say any impotent bookies don't need any Viagra this week with the horn they're getting thinking of these hotpot accumulators that never come up.

    If you told most of these punters that the chance of getting the 4 up was less then 10% they would not believe you. They'd probably tell you that, well Annie Power & UDS are certainties, Douvan is the best WPM as ever had going to Cheltenham and Faugheen is a machine, so no chance it is that low. The odds are secondary to most of these bettors and while it is a bit of fun and harmless this is a zero-sum game and the bookies are banking.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 627 zpehtsfd
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    Annie Power - Easy race the mare is a machine. It'll be something else if the "Willie Mullins Hotpot Accum" comes boiling down to this race.

    Of all the 4 she'd definitely be the one i'd want to fill the acc. Don't think i could watch UDS running if it was all riding on him. He's a firecracker. :eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 393 CheltenhamJ
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    Douvan unproven and half the price of vautour last year , poor value but doesn't mean that he doesn't win !!! Intringuing but think another Mullins entry might do douvan in first and other three will win


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,286 mdwexford
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    All 4 have question marks against them and all 4 are woefully short.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,224 jimjamcos
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    Lads, the topic is, in one word, simply who you think will lose, not a discussion on how they're too shirt or the flaws of backing such shorties.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Denman2008


    I think Douvan will get beat. Hype horse


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,135 Gregk961
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    jimjamcos wrote: »
    Lads, the topic is, in one word, simply who you think will lose, not a discussion on how they're too shirt or the flaws of backing such shorties.
    Its a redundant question if there is not debate, nobody can dispute its

    Douvan


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 298 handsfree2
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    Huntley wrote: »
    Douvan is the biggest price. Faugheen the next biggest. People will just follow the betting as is evident in however many have posted already.

    You've got it the wrong way around, the price follows sentiment rather than the other way around.

    The decision to place a bet happens before the money required to drive the price is wagered.

    It's funny that you thought people just looked at the prices and made their decision.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 Huntley
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    handsfree2 wrote: »
    You've got it the wrong way around, the price follows sentiment rather than the other way around.

    The decision to place a bet happens before the money required to drive the price is wagered.

    It's funny that you thought people just looked at the prices and made their decision.

    Who is the most vulnerable of the 7/4, 5/4 or 8/13 shots. A significant majority will pick the 7/4 shot. People might have more qualms about him but that's factored in to the price.

    It's good to think outside the box. If you find yourself agreeing with the monotonous, majority viewpoints it probably means you struggle to find an angle to make this pay consistently. That isn't so funny, as you may or may not be aware of.

    This isn't what the thread is about so I'll say no more.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 573 The jock
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    Annie Power wont win.
    Glens Melody will.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,861 fuzzydunlop85
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    For anyone doing this accum in the Armagh/Monaghan area the local bookie in Keady is going 20/1.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 298 handsfree2
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    Huntley wrote: »
    Who is the most vulnerable of the 7/4, 5/4 or 8/13 shots. A significant majority will pick the 7/4 shot. People might have more qualms about him but that's factored in to the price.

    It's good to think outside the box. If you find yourself agreeing with the monotonous, majority viewpoints it probably means you struggle to find an angle to make this pay consistently. That isn't so funny, as you may or may not be aware of.

    This isn't what the thread is about so I'll say no more.

    What you said here is waffle.

    I enjoyed your thread last year so Iets leave it at that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 406 DylanAFC
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    What do ye think the SPs of the 4 will be?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 mr.jingle
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    DylanAFC wrote: »
    What do ye think the SPs of the 4 will be?

    Really think it all depends on how Douvan does. If he wins UDS will drop under 1/2 i think, if UDS wins Faugheen will go off 4/6 and if he goes in AP will go 1/2 aswell as I think there are so many multiples and the bookies will be rightly sh!tt!ng themselves.

    If Douvan loses I can see them taking on UDS and 4/5 may be available, Faugheen around evs but AP will stay around 4/6 imo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 219 shamdrog63
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    Annie Power hasn,t run all season UDS has fallen & faugheen has beaten nothing so for me Douvan is the 1 that has the least questionmarks.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,036 The Mig
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    DylanAFC wrote: »
    Douvan and especially Faugheen.

    When push comes to shove I'm not sure about Faugheen climbing that hill come winning time.
    Didn't bother him last year :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,641 andyman
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    Faugheen getting up the hill isn't what worries me, it's getting over the flights and getting as far as the hill.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 Shemale
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    andyman wrote: »
    Faugheen getting up the hill isn't what worries me, it's getting over the flights and getting as far as the hill.

    Plenty being made of last year, he made his move an quickened well but then flattened out, wont get away with that tomorrow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,641 andyman
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    I'm backing Jezki either way


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 89,020 JP Liz V1
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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 Harry Angstrom
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    The jock wrote: »
    Annie Power wont win.
    Glens Melody will.

    7/4 Glens without Annie Power is the better bet, IMO.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 406 DylanAFC
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    7/4 Glens without Annie Power is the better bet, IMO.

    Paddy Power laying 6/1 about Glens Melody and Douvan @ 2/1 now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,447 barney4001
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    having read all the comments made about horses and form from latest runnings,i think tomorrow will be a very big day for favourite backers and i can easily envisage all 7 of the market leaders going in,has it ever been done before on the opening day before, or on any day of this meeting


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,351 Harry Angstrom
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    barney4001 wrote: »
    having read all the comments made about horses and form from latest runnings,i think tomorrow will be a very big day for favourite backers and i can easily envisage all 7 of the market leaders going in,has it ever been done before on the opening day before, or on any day of this meeting

    You can easily envisage all 7 favs winning?? Good luck with that! ;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,641 andyman
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    Lads, this is slowly turning into a Day 1 general discussion.

    All Day 1 discussion in its relevant thread that has been opened please. If the day 1 discussion continues in here I'll close the thread


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,511 saywhatyousee
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    Wonder what price you would get for all sp favorites to place ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,447 barney4001
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    sorry about that post in wrong thread barney


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 89,020 JP Liz V1
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    Did anyone pick Annie Power


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33 JAORTA


    no!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,224 jimjamcos
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    There was always going to be one. Never thought it would be Annie though and it cost me.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 573 The jock
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    The jock wrote: »
    Annie Power wont win.
    Glens Melody will.


    Boom!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,224 jimjamcos
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    The jock wrote: »
    Boom!!!

    Fairplay but Jesus, you got a chunk of luck!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 573 The jock
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    jimjamcos wrote: »
    Fairplay but Jesus, you got a chunk of luck!

    Sure did ha.

    Managed to get the tri-cast in the race.

    Would of won nothing if Annie stood up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,224 jimjamcos
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    That time of year again. Who from Mullins four big day 1 favs will be beaten? I'm actually more confident than last time round.

    Min: Henderson's two are being talked up but Min's form just looks better and better and he couldn't have won his starts so far any easier with stronger pace of Supreme sure to suit. Winner IMO

    Douvan: Was originally a bit worried about his jumping but he's some beast and looks sure to scare aware most of opposition. Winner

    Annie Power: I see a lot of people are crabbing her given her prep and lack of recent 2m runs but she's definitely the most likely winner IMO. Identity Thief's form in just beating Top Notch and losing to Nichols Canyon when having every chances makes him hard to fancy. Don't see why he'll improve that much for better ground given he's travelled so well on soft. NC rates the biggest danger for me but his standout form in open company was against a fat Faugheen (Wicklow Brave close up that day shows that form of race untrustworthy) and I'm not sure he's made for Cheltenham undulations. Also, if Willie and Ruby really believed he was a bonified CH winner, they wouldn't ask connections of AP to fork out 20k with other races for her taking. The New One still doesn't look right while MTOY has it all to prove, regardless of previous class. Think Ruby will give Annie a carbon copy of Faugheen ride last year and lead from start to finish. Can't see anything finishing stronger than her.

    Vroum Vroum Mag: Will face plenty of the mares she beat easily lto, ground shouldn't be an issue and coming back to 2m4 should be a positive if anything. Wins.


    4/4 for me.


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