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Match Thread: France v Wales, Stade de France, Saturday 28th February, Kick Off 17:00
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27-02-2015 10:55pm#1|
01: Eddie Ben Arous |01: Gethin Jenkins
02: Guilhem Guirado |02: Scott Baldwin
03: Rabah Slimani |03: Samson Lee
04: Romain Taofifenua|04: Luke Charteris
05: Yoann Maestri|05: Alun-Wyn Jones
06: Thierry Dusautoir |06: Dan Lydiate
07: Bernard Le Roux |07: Sam Warburton
08: Damien Chouly |08: Toby Faletau
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09: Morgan Parra |09: Rhys Webb
10: Camille Lopez |10: Dan Biggar
11: Sofiane Guitoune |11: Liam Williams
12: Wesley Fofana |12: Jamie Roberts
13: Remy Lamerat |13: Jonathan Davies
14:Yoann Huget |14: George North
15: Brice Dulin |15: Leigh Halfpenny
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16: Benjamin Kayser |16: Richard Hibbard
17: Uini Atonio |17: Paul James
18: Vincent Debaty |18: Aaron Jarvis
19: Jocelino Suta |19: Bradley Davies
20: Loan Goujon |20: Justin Tipuric
21: Sebastien Tillous-Borde |21: Mike Phillips
22: Remi Tales |22: Rhys Priestland
23: Mathieu Bastareaud |23: Scott Williams
Referee: Jaco Peyper (SARU)
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? The question would be even more curious if we substitute in Phillipe Saint André’s ineptitude and Warren Gatland’s stubbornness for the variables. Something man was not meant to know, surely. However the question will be answered tomorrow evening in a match that many will watch with a morbid fascination.
Phillipe Saint André has tinkered with his team to an extent that I don’t think any of us are too sure as to what his aim is. The combinations and tactics have been bewildering leading to disjointed performances and vague game plans being loosely attempted. However, the broken clock rule may well apply to him on this occasion as he appears to have finally stumbled onto what resembles his strongest back division aside from the omission of the incredibly effective Matthieu Bastareaud.
Whilst Bastareaud has not been at his impressive best in the tournament, to date, he has still been a threat both in attack and defence where he is close to immovable once he clamps on over ruck ball. His impact in attack has not been assisted by static, inaccurate halfback play which has stunted France overall.
Notwithstanding, he has still managed to make an impression going forward. In the single try scored in Dublin, whilst not actually touching the ball, the mere presence of Bastareaud had a huge effect on the try. The threat of him carrying ball not only drew Paul O’Connell’s attention but the necessity of a double tackle should he receive possession ensured Rob Kearney too came up to meet the 19 stone centre.
This in turn forces Jared Payne to step in leaving a huge overlap which Robbie Henshaw could only attempt a very unlikely stop on his own which was defeated.
Bastareaud picks a great decoy line
Saint André has elected to discard his big gun for a slightly smaller one in Remy Lamerat who tips the scales at a paltry 105kg. Aside from Lamerat though, the French back line is far closer to the nimble footed exponents of back-play not seen for some time in France. The majority of the back line are lightweight by test standards but all possess superb skill levels and, if they gel, could finally show what we’ve been missing. The lumbering Scott Spedding has been jettisoned in favour of the far more threatening Brice Dulin. Yoann Huget is potentially the best winger in the northern hemisphere. If the skills of his halfbacks and Wesley Fofana can get him the ball in space, he can do the damage required.
Central to this improvement will be their halfback pairing where we can only assume that in a moment of startling brilliance Saint André identified Camille Lopez and Morgan Parra may actually be the most effective partnership. How he has ignored the pairing who share a field for Clermont until this point raises significant questions as to his sanity.
Kockott is a fine player but he is not in the same league as the general from the Massif Central. Multiple opportunities were scorned as Kockott failed to supply his team with quick, accurate ball nor did he move his pack with any particular authority. The improvement from the introduction of Parra was immediate against Ireland. It was no coincidence that a period of real dominance came with his arrival resulting in points on the board.
Gatland, for his part, has stubbornly remained true to his gameplan throughout. If France have reverted to the rapier, Gatland has steadfastly stuck to his canons and sought to play his battering ram division.
France will be looking to expose this area on Saturday. As good as the likes of Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies are at going into contact and picking excellent lines, they are vulnerable in defence. Davies, in particular, can be beaten on the outside and struggles with taking his man down. Stuart Hogg found this out to his delight in Murrayfield as he scorched past the hapless Davies who had scored a fine try only minutes beforehand.
In his pack, Gatland has recalled some heavyweights in Samson Lee and Luke Charteris to add ballast to his forwards who were hardly lacking in that department previously. His front five should be able to maintain parity for the most part at the set piece but it is the introduction of the French juggernauts after an hour that will have Gatland concerned.
It will take a huge physical effort from the Welsh forwards but in their flankers they have two tireless workers who will be willing to go through the pain barrier for the side. The Scottish game suggested they’re close to their previous form and will make life extremely difficult on the French back row which has looked rusty thus far. Sam Warburton was back to his tireless self at the rucks as his partner Lydiate took anything that moved down to the deck.
The clash between Dusautoir and Warburton is surely one which will attract attention but, unless the Toulouse man can wind the clock back, he will be relying on his team mates to man handle the Welsh breakdown threat.
Tactically, I expect the Welsh to try and pressure the French through the centre, crashing up and hoisting up and unders for their chasers to attack. France execute a narrow, drift defence which should alleviate the Welsh carrying threat but they must put their man down; they do not possess the scramble defence to save a clean break.
France employ a tightly packed midfield defence, drifting as required
With Parra in situ, the French will hope to bring much more pace to the game than previously, getting their carriers around the corner and over the gain line, generating the quick ball their backs will thrive on.
Absolutely key to the game will be the match-up between the respective scrum halves. Each will be key to the game plan that each side tries to implement and whichever adjusts more quickly and enjoys cleaner ball, should be able to steer their side home. Rhys Webb has become a crucial player to Wales, supplementing their attack with his open play threat and kicking game, offering a threat that Wales haven't enjoyed for some time.
With their general in place behind the scrum and a powerhouse bench to come onto the field, I would expect this French side to have a fraction too much pride to wave the white flag.
There’s a first time for everything, then.
Prediction: France 20-13 Wales29
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