March 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 6.9 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the maximum temperature at any station reporting on the met.ie website for the 17th, and its location.

TEMPLATE to use for your entry

IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ max-17, loc

---

Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Sunday 1st of March, to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Monday 2nd. After that, it's five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500 and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days.

As I think our forms-guy has gone sailing around the world possibly, we will need to enter the old school way, thanks for using the above template or something similar, the closer you get to that, the less editing old MTC has to do with the table of entries. Here's a better idea yet, copy my forecast and change the numbers substantially to give yourself a fighting chance:

M.T. Cranium _________ 5.5 _ 17.5 _ -5.7 _ 105 _ 108 _ 13.3 Shannon

Good luck !!

200motels

200motels___________5.9 _ 18 _ -6.1 _ 112 _ 104 _ 16.2 Shannon

Rikand

Rikand ......... 6.5 _ 19.0 _ -3.5 _ 90 _ 120 _ 15.0 Valentia

dasa29

Dasa29 _________ 6.2 _ 15 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 110 _ 14.5 Cork Airport

Bsal

6.6 _ 16.1 _ -3.0 _ 101 _ 125 _ 12.5, Phoenix Park

pauldry

6.1_ 17 _ -4. _ 105 _ 108_ 10.5, valen

John mac

John mac_________ 6.4 _ 18.2 _ -3.7 _ 102 _ 98 _ 12.6 Sherkin

mrskinner

mrskinner____6.3___16.3___-5.3___93___113___13.3 Valentia

jd

jd____6.2___16. 9___-5.9___91___108___15.1 Valentia

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _________7.3_ 16.5_ -4.8_ 95_ 110_ 13.2 Shannon

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________ 7.2 _ 18.2 _ -3.2 _ 90 _ 110 _ 14.2 Casement

kindredspirit

Kindredspirit _________ 7.0 _ 18.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 110 _ 12.0 Valentia.

mickger844posts

mickger844posts _________ 5.2 _ 17.5 _ -3.7 _ 90 _ 118 _ 14.3 Valentia

Joe Public

Joe Public _________ 5.9 _ 16.9 _ -5.9 _ 80 _ 140 _ 9.9 Valentia

sunflower3

sunflower3 _________ 5.4 _ 16.5 _ -2.9 _ 95 _ 111 _ 14.9 Oak Park

sunflower3

sunflower3 _________ 6.4 _ 16.5 _ -2.9 _ 95 _ 111 _ 14.9 Oak Park

lostinashford

Lostinashford _________ 7.5 _ 17.5 _ -4.1 _ 103 _ 114 _ 15.6 Oak Park

waterways

waterways _________ 6.7 _ 20.8 _ -4.5 _ 94 _ 118 _ 14.0 Casement

omicron

omicron _________ 7.3 _ 18.0 _ -3.0 _ 95 _ 105 _ 14.5 Valentia

Lumi

6.4 _ 18.2 _ -3.9 _ 100 _ 105 _ 13.7, VAL

Tae laidir

Tae laidir__________7.3_16.8_-2.7_128_90_12.0 Valentia

delw

delw...........6.3.......16.5......-3.4.....95.....14.9....valenita

dacogawa

Dacogawa _________ 6.5 _ 17.7 _ -4.0 _ 115 _ 90 _ 12.9 Valentia

Schadenfreudia

March came around quicker than I expected....

MT _ 6.5
MAX _ 17.5
MIN _ - 3.5
PRC _ 110%
SUN _ 105%
max-17; 10.1C
loc Shannon

rameire

Rameire _________ 6.3 _ 19.2 _ -3.2 _ 101 _ 110 _ 12.1 Casement

Tae laidir

delw wrote: »

delw...........6.3.......16.5......-3.4.....95.....14.9....valenita

I think you have omitted an entry!

Harps

Sorry, been very busy of late

Harps _________ 7.6 _ 17.5 _ -3.9 _ 95 _ 115 _ 12.8 Oak Park

Rikand

Harps wrote: »

Sorry, been very busy of late

Harps _________ 7.6 _ 17.5 _ -3.9 _ 95 _ 115 _ 12.8 Oak Park

Giving the rest of us a chance

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for the entries, I will work up a table later. If delw doesn't post an update, will assume 95 for both precip and sunshine.

Scoring is finished for February. Mickger844posts had the top score at 90. Well done Mick. I have also finished provisional scoring of the winter seasonal contest.

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts for March 2015


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max 17th

Harps ____ (-20) _______ 7.6 _ 17.5 _ -3.9 _ 095 _ 115 _ 12.8 Oak Park
Lostinashford __________ 7.5 _ 17.5 _ -4.1 _ 103 _ 114 _ 15.6 Oak Park
omicron ______________ 7.3 _ 18.0 _ -3.0 _ 095 _ 105 _ 14.5 Valentia
Tae laidir______________ 7.3 _ 16.8 _ -2.7 _ 128 _ 090 _ 12.0 Valentia
Jpmarn _______________ 7.3 _ 16.5 _ -4.8 _ 095 _ 110 _ 13.2 Shannon
DOCARCH _____________7.2 _ 18.2 _ -3.2 _ 090 _ 110 _ 14.2 Casement
Kindredspirit ___________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 110 _ 12.0 Valentia
waterways ____________ 6.7 _ 20.8 _ -4.5 _ 094 _ 118 _ 14.0 Casement
Bsal __________________6.6 _ 16.1 _ -3.0 _ 101 _ 125 _ 12.5, Phoenix Park
Rikand _______________ 6.5 _ 19.0 _ -3.5 _ 090 _ 120 _ 15.0 Valentia
Dacogawa _____________6.5 _ 17.7 _ -4.0 _ 115 _ 090 _ 12.9 Valentia
Schadenfreudia _ (-5) ___ 6.5 _ 17.5 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 105 _ 10.1 Shannon
John mac _____________ 6.4 _ 18.2 _ -3.7 _ 102 _ 098 _ 12.6 Sherkin

Con Sensus ___________ 6.4 _ 17.5 _ -3.7 _ 095 _ 110 _ 13.3 Valentia

Lumi _________________6.4 _ 18.2 _ -3.9 _ 100 _ 105 _ 13.7 Valentia
sunflower3 ____________ 6.4 _ 16.5 _ -2.9 _ 095 _ 111 _ 14.9 Oak Park
Rameire _____ (-5) _____ 6.3 _ 19.2 _ -3.2 _ 101 _ 110 _ 12.1 Casement
delw _________________ 6.3 _ 16.5 _ -3.4 _ 095 _ 095 _ 14.9 Valentia
mrskinner_____________ 6.3 _ 16.3 _ -5.3 _ 093 _ 113 _ 13.3 Valentia
jd ___________________ 6.2 _ 16.9 _ -5.9 _ 091 _ 108 _ 15.1 Valentia
Dasa29 _______________6.2 _ 15.0 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 110 _ 14.5 Cork Airport
pauldry _______________6.1 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 105 _ 108 _ 10.5 Valentia
Joe Public _____________ 5.9 _ 16.9 _ -5.9 _ 080 _ 140 __ 9.9 Valentia
200motels_____________ 5.9 _ 18.0 _ -6.1 _ 112 _ 104 _ 16.2 Shannon
M.T. Cranium __________ 5.5 _ 17.5 _ -5.7 _ 105 _ 108 _ 13.3 Shannon
mickger844posts ________5.2 _ 17.5 _ -3.7 _ 090 _ 118 _ 14.3 Valentia
______________________________________________________

The general consensus seems to be pointing towards a near normal month in temperatures overall, with perhaps a bit more sunshine than average. For the 17th, about half (12/25) favour Valentia to be the warmest location, 4 picked Shannon, 3 chose Oak Park, 3 also for Casement, and 1 each for Sherkin, Phoenix Park and Cork.

Expect one bonus point for selecting the correct location and one super-bonus for combining that with a top three temperature (scoring this month will go in groups of three from 10 down to 4 then two at 3 and one each at 2 and 1. That's if we stay at the current 25 entries, otherwise I may score more at 3 then at 2 points etc.

Good luck, charts are looking mild for a while after this very cold start.

Tae laidir

Cork/Knock Airports -1.8 yesterday may hold as minimum for some time!

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 14.8 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir wrote: »

Cork/Knock Airports -1.8 yesterday may hold as minimum for some time!

Mullingar -2.6 yesterday

M.T. Cranium

Well, a bit late reporting on how March is going so far, these are somewhat estimated through the 11th ...

IMT is about 6.4 C

PRC is near normal or slightly above (it was slightly below going into Wednesday)

SUN is probably about 20% above normal.

John mac

-4.1 Markree Castle yesterday

pauldry

-4.6c mullingar

John mac

Mullingar is showing -3.3
Athenry is also -4.1


although 8km east of Mullingar .....

John mac

Mullingar has -4.6 for yesterday..

M.T. Cranium

The IMT has fallen off to 5.9 C with these colder days and will fall about 0.1 each day that the mean is in the 4-5 range, probably closer to 0.2 if the means are closer to 4 than 5.

pauldry

Max temp around 13c today. Maybe valent the station.

ThOught I was set as met eireann forecast 7 to 10c last night then changed it to 8 to 11c this morning then changed it again to 10 to 13c this afternoon.

Tae laidir

OGIMET showing 12.8 for both Belmullet & Valentia.
If correct, Bullseye for Harps
But Double Tops for Con :mad:

M.T. Cranium

Okay then, just to confirm 12.8 at Valentia and Belmullet for the bonus question, but as nobody selected Belmullet, will score as if Valentia was "it" alone.

Three closest humans were Harps (no error), Dacogawa (0.1 out) and Johnmac (0.2 out). Of those, Dacogawa scoops two extra points for the right location combined with a top score, so he wins the bonus round with 12 total points.

Next three to receive nine points would be Bsal (0.3 out), JPmarn (0.4 out) and a tie among MTC, Mrskinner, and Con Sensus who would not have counted to determine contestant scoring if alone at that mark (0.5 out). Of those, Mrskinner and Con Sensus got a bonus point for Valentia, so they also get ten points on the bonus.

Then it would be eight points for Tae laidir and kindredspirit (0.8 out), and Lumi (0.9 out) all of whom get the extra point for Valentia, so nine in total for those three.

From there on it would be groups of three and as nobody was way off the mark I will allow that to terminate wherever it reaches rather than forcing it down to a couple of zeroes. It may make lowest score 2 or so. Think that's fair because sometimes we see bonus guesses that are closer to extreme values than anyone ventured in this case so everyone had at least some skill in their forecast (guess).

M.T. Cranium

Noting IMT now about 5.6 (5.7 after 17th) and already Casement -5.1 at some point yesterday, that could be eclipsed by later data.

I'm in with a shout for a change. But will probably get the door slammed on my bony fingers (excellent).

M.T. Cranium

So the IMT now on 5.6, the PRC has fallen off to 70% (approx) and SUN remains well above normal around 125%. Has anyone seen a temperature above 15 C yet?

That -5.1 at Casement appears to be the min so far.

Enjoy the hour of semi-twilight, if somebody has a reliable car thermometer, record values every 10 mins from 0900 to 1020 just for fun and also at 1100 and 1200, for calibration (do it somewhere close to a reporting station) and try to make them at one location only). If your instrument appears well calibrated then the record of temperature variation will be interesting. I've seen data in the past that show as much as a 2-3 C drop in temperature during eclipses. The 95% factor won't change this much, totality would only reduce incoming solar radiation slightly. I realize it may be mostly cloudy and this is why I find it interesting to get a record.

Schadenfreudia

Temp here was rising in overcast conditions from a dawn figure of 6.7C to 8.7C at 8.45 - between 8.45 and 9.30 it dropped back to 8.4C.

Then, ironically the 8% of the sun started to break through the overcast and the temp held at 8.4 until 9.40 and is now up to 9.2C.

Not much, but more noticeable than the light change! Amazing you can lose 92% of the sun and hardly notice the change in light.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, there were some other temperature recordings on the eclipse thread too. In general, at a time of day when temperatures would normally rise 1 or 2 deg, they fell about 1 deg, so basically a cooling factor of 2-3 deg at maximum.

The perception of daylight is one thing, but the satellite loop posted over on the eclipse thread shows how much change in sunlight was created by the 80-90% coverage of the Sun. It looks like quite a change as far south as northern France on that loop. But I know what you mean about the slight reduction, that was my perception too on a much brighter day (May 94 if memory serves) in Ontario with about 90% coverage. It just seemed to be more like a partly overcast day for a few minutes.

rameire

I am having to place my April entry here early.

Rameire _________ 9.6 _ 20.2 _ -2.0 _ 91 _ 105 _ 6 Cork

as I dont know what the bonus is I am placing a random 6 in.
hope it is ok to do this, just wont have tinternet access for a few weeks.

Thank you MT Cranium, Appreciate it.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, thanks and I will pick a bonus question where 6 could be an answer. Maybe we will go with hours of sunshine on Easter Sunday (5th April) averaged for the six primary stations used in our contest. Bonus for location of maximum sunshine (if you see this before you go off the grid, Rameire, feel free to amend the number and name the station from these six -- Cork, Valentia, Belmullet, Shannon, Dublin and Casement.

pauldry

You cud say what temperature will it be every day in april

Its bloody freezing since january on the day it was 16c. Even the arctic sea ice has started renewing itself again

M.T. Cranium

We're having a below normal day here, so unusual that loudspeaker vans are touring the city warning people to stay indoors until it passes.

M.T. Cranium

Final values confirmed as 6.1 for IMT (just squeaked in from 6.06) and precip appears to be 109% (will confirm from MS). Have lost track of sunshine but expect it will be above normal slightly. Max may need some mercy rule scoring, I can't recall anything much warmer than the 14.4 C at Moorepark on 30th.

Will do some scoring when I first encounter the Monthly Summary tomorrow (afternoon your time).