FT: TV’s lost generation streams away

Elmo

Vic_08 wrote: »

Some broadcasters have tried to closely follow US air dates, particularly with popular shows but it generally hasn't been well received. SKY did it with ER at the height of it's popularity for example.

A secondary reason why broadcasters hold off is because of the propensity of US broadcasters to cancel shows mid-series. There will usually be clauses in the contracts that the overseas broadcaster will not have to buy a series if it does not get a complete run or they will be sold at a much reduced rate as a time filler (RTE used to buy bucketloads of these and run them out in the early hours). No broadcaster wants to waste resources in promoting the next big thing out of the US only to have it disappear after a handful of episodes. Waiting until Jan/Feb they will usually know if the US network has committed to a full series or not.

Back in the day RTÉ would at the very earliest start ER in December with a break at Christmas. This allowed for RTÉ to only have a few breaks. 24 was one show that changed the US main method of many breaks. With the success of it this side of the Atlantic due to a complete 20 week run (Double Episodes) on BBC and RTÉ. Binge watching on BBC2 every month!

AFAIK most broadcasters make an agreement to get another series should it not get past the 13 week point. Though the 22 week TV serial is slowly disappearing.

JTMan

More bad news for cable TV subscription numbers, more good news for steaming ...

http://uk.businessinsider.com/cisco-visual-networking-index-report-2015-5?r=US

In the US, subscriptions to pay TV providers — companies like Comcast, Time Warner Cable, and DirecTV — are declining. The pay TV industry in the U.S. lost 31,000 subscribers last quarter, which is usually a strong period for subscriber growth, according to the media research firm MoffettNathanson.

At the same time, streaming video is surging.

According to Cisco, mobile video will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.2%, while online video, which the company defines as any video watched on a device connected to a fixed network, like a home or office WiFi connection, will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.1%.

Elmo

JTMan wrote: »

More bad news for cable TV subscription numbers, more good news for steaming ...

http://uk.businessinsider.com/cisco-visual-networking-index-report-2015-5?r=US

Don't really understand why Discovery Networks etc doesn't just start streaming on Cable networks/online. I wonder if Cable Broadband figures have seen an increase?

STB.

Vic_08 wrote: »

None of that has anything to do with the delay in international broadcasts.

New US tv series are mainly sold before they begin airing. They are sold individually or as part of package deals.

Overseas broadcasters traditionally would start showing US series in Jan-Feb where they would have started in Sep.

The main reason for this is that US networks do not air new episodes weekly, a 22 episode series will be aired over 35-40 weeks with old episodes or other programmes airing in the timeslot every few weeks. This has never been popular here where people expect new episodes every week. It is becoming more commonplace now because of the effect of illegal downloads.

Some broadcasters have tried to closely follow US air dates, particularly with popular shows but it generally hasn't been well received. SKY did it with ER at the height of it's popularity for example.

A secondary reason why broadcasters hold off is because of the propensity of US broadcasters to cancel shows mid-series. There will usually be clauses in the contracts that the overseas broadcaster will not have to buy a series if it does not get a complete run or they will be sold at a much reduced rate as a time filler (RTE used to buy bucketloads of these and run them out in the early hours). No broadcaster wants to waste resources in promoting the next big thing out of the US only to have it disappear after a handful of episodes. Waiting until Jan/Feb they will usually know if the US network has committed to a full series or not.

It has everything to do with the ability of buying rights for the Irish market.

The international distribution rights are handled by the 6 majors. There are screenings every year in LA. The wait and see that it wont be cancelled attitude you are referring to is VERY rare. The clamber for first run exclusive rights say as much. The UK broadcasters get first go at anything that is being "offered" via international rights distribution. The UK rights market and the exclusive element is driven by potenital viewership, and invariably the costs involved rule out the potential of small broadcasters like RTE to compete, so they must wait until the offers for smaller markets to come around.

That is not to say that bargains cant be had when the UK majors pass.

JTMan

Only half of young people's viewing is traditional scheduled TV

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jul/02/young-people-live-tv-bbc-iplayer-youtube-netflix

Young people are shunning live TV and watching their favourite shows online, Ofcom revealed yesterday.

The broadcasting regulator said just half of all viewing among 16- to 24-year-olds is now through traditional scheduled TV.

The rest of the time, they prefer to stream shows via online services such as Netflix and Amazon, watch short video clips on YouTube or use catchup services such as the BBC iPlayer and All 4.

JTMan

JTMan

The growing unease about the state of the linear pay-television ecosystem has been on display, as linear TV media stocks have gotten battered this month ...

Cord-Cutting Weighs on Pay TV. Stocks of media firms with cable channels are hit on subscriber losses.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/cord-cutters-weights-on-pay-tv-1438820384

The latest round of earnings from major media companies is stoking fears that as more consumers drop their traditional pay-TV services, the long-term health of the industry’s biggest players will be threatened.

The share price of programming behemoth Time Warner Inc., which posted only modest 2% cable subscription fee growth in the second quarter, has fallen 10% this week through the close Thursday. Class B shares of Discovery Communications Inc. have plunged nearly 15%, even as the company highlighted its efforts to secure higher fees in what it called a U.S. TV market that remains “challenged.”

Meanwhile, shares of 21st Century Fox and Viacom Inc. are down 13% and 23%, respectively.

Elmo

JTMan wrote: »

The growing unease about the state of the linear pay-television ecosystem has been on display, as linear TV media stocks have gotten battered this month ...

Cord-Cutting Weighs on Pay TV. Stocks of media firms with cable channels are hit on subscriber losses.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/cord-cutters-weights-on-pay-tv-1438820384

I am surprised that Viacom haven't entered the on-demand pay TV arena considering most of their channels are stripped and supposedly niche.

How is discovery doing considering they have on-demand services?

JTMan

Elmo wrote: »

I am surprised that Viacom haven't entered the on-demand pay TV arena considering most of their channels are stripped and supposedly niche.

How is discovery doing considering they have on-demand services?

Are you referring to Discovery's CuriosityStream streaming service? it has been a failure thus far.

It is very difficult for the big linear TV providers to complete with the big 5 streaming content providers, NetFlix, Amazon Prime, YouTube, Hulu and Apple TV.

Elmo

JTMan wrote: »

Are you referring to Discovery's CuriosityStream streaming service? it has been a failure thus far.

It is very difficult for the big linear TV providers to complete with the big 5 streaming content providers, NetFlix, Amazon Prime, YouTube, Hulu and Apple TV.

I think as time changes Discovery's stand alone ondemand services will pic up, I would say alot of Discovery users are still with cable companies.

How much is a basic cable package? I'd say many would be willing to pay 7 euro per month for Discovery content online and drop cable.

17 euro per month for Netflix and Discover and your free on-demand services.

CuriosityStream is a not a good name, just with Discovery it is still a major brand.

JTMan

Elmo wrote: »

I'd say many would be willing to pay 7 euro per month for Discovery content online and drop cable.

A minority. The vast majority will choose one of the bigger streaming solutions.

Discoveries best bet is selling content to the larger streaming providers rather than going stand alone.

Elmo

JTMan wrote: »

A minority. The vast majority will choose one of the bigger streaming solutions.

Discoveries best bet is selling content to the larger streaming providers rather than going stand alone.

Perhaps but your really just back to Cable TV, just on-demand.

Do they provide the content to all providers? Does this limited their "Exclusivity"?

Will Sports services start appearing on Netflix? GAA Go with a Netflix sub?

icdg

It's not really Netflix's thing and it would be a substantial change in their model, which is unlimited video on demand for a relatively cheap price. They've not done anything live before and buying premium sports rights, in Europe at least, would necessitate a huge hike in subscription fees.

As for Discovery, their issue is that the content they have - almost entirely factual stuff - is for most people a "nice to have" at best, it would be a very limited number that it would drive subscriptions for.

Elmo

icdg wrote: »

It's not really Netflix's thing and it would be a substantial change in their model, which is unlimited video on demand for a relatively cheap price. They've not done anything live before and buying premium sports rights, in Europe at least, would necessitate a huge hike in subscription fees.

So will it be a case of having Netflix or Another general entertainment On Demand service, and separate Sports packages from BT, Sky etc.

To me it really only they stripped schedule general entertainment channels that are under fire, such as Comedy Central and Sky 1.

JTMan

The just finalised July 2015 TV ratings out of the US are truly shocking. Linear TV is dying on its feet quickly.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/summer-tv-watchers-abandon-cable-shows-1439838550

• TNT, the most-watched cable channel in prime time for the month experienced a 22% drop YoY.
• Walt Disney Co.’s Disney Channel lost 19% of its audience YoY.
• Comcast Corp.’s Bravo was down 23% YoY.
• Viacom Inc.’s MTV fell 24% YoY.

I have watched the US TV market for years and never seen anything like this. Linear TV ratings are in freefall.

Elmo

JTMan wrote: »

I have watched the US TV market for years and never seen anything like this. Linear TV ratings are in freefall.

They don't help themselves with so many adverts.

How are the "Big 4" holding up FOX, ABC, CBS and ABC ... The CW.

Would have thought MTV would have died in the 2000s, is this MTV music or MTV no music?

ftakeith

I think 'now tv' from sky should shake up the way people in apartments watch TV as could be 15euros per month for the basic Entertainment package

icdg

Elmo wrote: »

Would have thought MTV would have died in the 2000s, is this MTV music or MTV no music?

The main MTV channel has very successfully reinvented itself as a reality TV channel aimed primarily at young women. MTV still does operate pop video channels though.

JTMan

Back a few years ago that was true. The challenge Viacom faces now is adopting to the streaming revolution and right now they are failing badly, 24% YoY drop in MTV ratings is a disaster for Viacom.

MTV will probably be one of the most damaged brands by streaming, its youth audience is the most adoptable to streaming. MTV as a linear TV brand is declining rapidly in significance.

icdg

An interesting one on this

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/aug/20/sky-adds-features-to-movies-service-to-keep-up-with-netflix

Sky making the point that for events where millions of homes will be viewing the same event at the same time, streaming still isn't able to cope.

JTMan

That was one inferred aspect of the article and it purely related to the simulcast of live sporting events via streaming. It also inferred that technology is only a while away from addressing this.

The other aspect focuses on how satellite dishes might become redundant as streaming takes hold. Streaming might kill satellite TV ...

However, the march of greater bandwidth and internet connectivity points towards a time when the satellite is no longer needed.

Sky is not married to the technology that gave the company its name, according to Van Rooyen: “If it becomes more efficient and effective to deliver content over broadband connections our business will evolve that way, as our objective is to make sure it gets to the customers as easily, in as high a quality and at as low cost as is available.”

Capt'n Midnight

icdg wrote: »

An interesting one on this

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/aug/20/sky-adds-features-to-movies-service-to-keep-up-with-netflix

Sky making the point that for events where millions of homes will be viewing the same event at the same time, streaming still isn't able to cope.

Back in 2012 Deutsche Telekom was able to transmit 400Gb/s over 734 kilometers on existing fibre.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/03/07/deutsche_telekom_data_record/

This new technology, they say, would enable a standard 48-channel, 100GHz optical-fiber transmission/reception setup to achieve a total throughput of 24.6 terabits per second.

So that one link would provide nearly 5Mb/s for everyone in this country.

Then again they'd be using multicasting so the bottleneck would be far closer to the last mile.

Even a live event would only be a few GB so you could cache in memory so any faf about slow drives is just faf. And there are new memory technolgies waiting in the wings

It's just a matter of time. But don't hold your breath for 4K.

JTMan

Bloomberg Greenfield: TV is in structural decline.

Interesting Bloomberg TV discussion on the massive, and mostly recent, structural shift in viewing habits, the effect for the advertising market and ongoing cord cutting.

bk

Very interesting thread.

I see radical changes happening in the TV distribution market, with all sorts of disruptive technologies emerging, with some big players falling and some new ones arising.

I think we are going to see Google/Youtube, Apple, Netflix and Amazon become the big players in video distribution in the new generation.

I think we will largely see ad-supported broadcast TV become a free option when bundled with broadband, but even with that it won't stop it's decline, just slow it at best.

Certainly this will have a big impact on the more niche channels like Viacom, etc. as they will no longer have the umbrella protection of being bundled with lots of more popular channels.

I also see very tough times ahead for Sky. They have already lost their grip on movies. Their are losing their grip on high quality US dramas to Netflix and Amazon and if HBO Go was to launch in the UK, they would be completely stuffed.

Even Skys grasp of sports is looking shaky. A big reason why Sky had such a hold on sports was because until recently, the only way to distribute sports was largely by satellite and Sky totally controlled that platform. That made it very difficult for other companies to even think about bidding on and then distributing sports.

But with the rise of IPTV and over the top video, it makes it much easier for companies to bypass Sky and deliver sports direct to customers. That is how we have seen the rise of BT sports to challenge Sky. BT are such a big challenger because they can deliver their channels directly to people over their own broadband network and bundle them with broadband.

I think we will see more challengers like BT sports come to the market like ESPN and MLB to challenge Sky's sports crown.

All of that isn't to say Sky will disappear. But I do believe we will see their almost monopolistic control of the UK TV market slip badly over the next few years until they are basically just another video distributor.

They need to turn themselves it a Netflix, packing various content and using their brand name to deliver an easy to use video on demand service to the UK market. But for the moment, it doesn't really look like they have the engineering talent and leadership to do that. Their lack of ownership of any broadband infrastructure makes them look weak in the future delivery of video services.

BTW MLB (Major League Baseball) is an interesting one, that many people here in Ireland may not have heard of. Many are calling them the Netflix of sport in the US. They have built a very capable internet streaming service and architecture as good as Netflix and have done very well streaming MLB matches. So good in fact, that they have now won the rights to also stream NHL matches in the US.

This quiet disproves the point that you can't distribute sport by streaming.

BTW if you are wondering how Netflix streaming works so well, it is because they put their own content and caching servers right in the ISP's own local networks. That means right in INEX, directly connected to UPC, Eircom, etc. local networks.

At a level above that they use Amazons Cloud service. That is right Netflix doesn't have any datacenters of their own!! Amazon has datacenters around the world, including right here in Ireland. So that is how Netflix streaming works so well, most of it is local in Ireland. It isn't coming from the US.

For live sports broadcasting, you can look at IP multicasting for IPTV services to help out.

For RTE, this is all likely to have less of an impact, due to their strong local content. But they still need to be careful as they too could be effected by falling TV ad rates and maybe lose young viewers to Netflix and Youtube. RTE needs to focus on improving their RTE Player, improving picture quality, UI and making it available on more devices.

They also need to look to packaging their services in with other companies.

That is one thing I think we are currently missing. I think there are many if not most people who don't want to have to subscribe to a half a dozen different services, with different interfaces and different devices. Just too much hassle.

I think there is room in the market for distribution companies who package everything together into an easy to use service. Maybe Sky, UPC and similar could do this.

Imagine something like Sky's Now TV box, that gives you all the broadcast channels for free (RTE, BBC, etc.) with optional subscriptions to access Netflix, HBO GO, Sky Sports and pay to watch, add free on demand TV shows and movies, all in a nice and easy to use interface.

Either way, very interesting times ahead.