Match Thread: IRELAND vs France, Aviva Stadium, Sat. 14th Feb, KO 17:00

Tox56 · 12-02-2015 5:02pm #1

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“It depends which French team turns up” – Every pundit ever

Front row
J McGrath, R Best, M Ross vs E Ben Arous, G Guirado, R Slimani

There are a few things I’d like to know about Ben Arous, such as who he is, and why does he have two surnames. Google informs me he is a coastal town in North-Eastern Tunisia, so I expect he will have the full attention of Mike Ross at scrum time. Although at 74 square kilometres in size Ben Arous will likely be giving up a few kgs to Big Mike.

Personnel = Advantage France, Everything else = Advantage Ireland

Likelihood of French implosion = Low

Second Row
D Toner, P O’Connell vs P Pape, Y Maestri

If you said a year ago that Devin Toner would be a regular starter for Ireland… there would have been unanimous agreement, because he already was.

If you’d said that FOUR years ago however, most of us would have laughed in your face. He has been proving the doubters wrong every day since, and he is now surely one of the first names on the team sheet.

In the long term, while we know replacing Paul O’Connell is going to be a tall order (is this thing on?), the list of possible replacements is now as long as Toner’s arm, and we have a number of genuine options in that position, all waiting for the chance to take POC’s jersey post-World Cup (…ok, it will probably be Henderson).

Anyway, regardless of which player ultimately takes the Number 5 jersey from the great man (it will be Henderson), Toner’s consistent presence in the side over the last number of years will undoubtedly smooth the transitional period for POC’s successor, whoever that may be (Henderson).

Advantage = Ireland

Likelihood of French implosion = Moderate

Backrow
P O’Mahony, S O’Brien, J Heaslip vs T Dusautoir, B Le Roux, D Chouly

Sean O’Brien is playing.

Advantage = SOB

Half backs
J Sexton, C Murray vs C Lopez, R Kockott

Kockott and Lopez are very good rugby players, but they’re French halfbacks (kind of), so we are obliged to call them “mercurial” and say they “blow hot and cold”. Anyway, we have the best halfback pairing in the world so I don’t really care.

Advantage = Ireland

Likelihood of French implosion = Off the charts

Centres
J Payne, R Henshaw vs M Bastareaud, W Fofana

In the world of known unknowns and unknown knowns and known knowns and unknown unknowns, Ireland’s centre pairing is right up there in one of those categories. As a pair they’ve had two games, two wins, and good defence. But despite individually possessing natural attacking talent, we have seen little more than occasional glimpses of what they can do offensively.

I expect Schmidt is giving them a proper chance to get a run of games together, but we’re at the stage where if they play against England, they’re going to be our centre pairing for the World Cup, like it or not.

Advantage = France. Or if not, Ireland

Likelihood of French implosion = Surprisingly low

Back Three
R Kearney; T Bowe, S Zebo vs S Spedding; Y Huget, T Thomas

Going through the motions now and I doubt anyone has read this far so Zebo = Overrated.

A single tear could be seen to roll down the check of tabloid headline writers around the country when PSA decided not to bring Dulin to Dublin.

Fitzgerald = Better than Zebo

Prediction: Ireland by 10. I’m surprisingly confident, bring it France. In the words of Omar Little, if you come at the king, you best not miss

andymx11 · 12-02-2015 5:03pm

That's one fine table!

total former · 12-02-2015 5:05pm

A great laugh to get me through my 5pm slump, nice one.

Clearlier · 12-02-2015 5:14pm

non satis Latin

total former · 12-02-2015 5:14pm

Since Tox56 bailed out before discussing the benches;

Debaty is the sub loosehead (can also play TH) and is a monster, but he's absolutely dwarfed by Uini Atonio who was quoted in the French press during the week as being delighted he'd got his weight down to a svelte 144kg. There was a doubt about Kayser during the week so Szarzewski is on standby and will be looking to take on Madigan and Jordi Murphy in the fabulous hair stakes.

Romain Taofifenua is another enormous lump and while I don't know anything about Loann Goujon, I'm trying frantically to come up with some sort of chicken goujon-based pun. I'll get there.

Tales and Lamerat are both good attacking options off the bench and Parra really should be starting, so overall a strong French bench if perhaps a bit lacking in international experience.

phog · 12-02-2015 5:24pm

Gutted for TOD and Keatley losing out after their performances last week.

Delighted to see Sexton, SOB and Heaslip back, they're a huge addition to the team.

If we can get through the 6Ns without losing them again the I think we could manage the Grand Slam.

matthew8 · 12-02-2015 5:26pm

If you forget about the history of the 2 sides and look at the form with Ireland as Team A and France as Team B, you could only see an Irish victory and probably with a bit to spare. There has been at most 1 or 2
performances under PSA that says they'll win in Ireland. That said, it is Ireland-France and it feels a bit different but I think the 2 coaches more than make up for that. France looked to have an awful attitude last Summer and away in last year's 6 nations, while Ireland have looked like quite a confident team. Ireland by 15.

pc7 · 12-02-2015 5:34pm

Great write up, enjoyed it. On paper great reading our 15, just worried some of them are being tested a bit too soon injury wise. Think this one is ours once bastareaud doesn't plough right into them, he's a strange one, looks so unfit and fat and yet is like a Duracell bunny and keeps going.

Hagz · 12-02-2015 5:50pm

It's like Schmidt said, they're no more at risk of picking up an injury than the other 20 players. The only risk is that they might be off the pace required, but given their reputation I'd be surprised.

Do You Even Squat · 12-02-2015 5:52pm

Imagine this:
Sexton gets concussed and Madigan comes on after a poor outing against the Saxons who has played limited time at 10.
Any of the other 5 back line players, bar Murray, gets injured and Jones comes on.

We better pray Jones gets injured before Saturday, Fitzy gets drafted in and everyone else stays injury free.

phog · 12-02-2015 5:54pm

Do You Even Squat wrote: »

Imagine this:
Sexton gets concussed and Madigan comes on after a poor outing against the Saxons who has played limited time at 10.
Any of the other 5 back line players, bar Murray, gets injured and Jones comes on.

We better pray Jones gets injured before Saturday, Fitzy gets drafted in and everyone else stays injury free.

I'd like to think you're on your own with that.

vienne86 · 12-02-2015 5:57pm

On paper you have to fancy Ireland. Just wish Sexton wasn't playing his first match in 12 weeks and SOB had had more than 50 minutes in over a year. Great to have Heaslip back. That's three BIG players we didn't have last week - I just hope they are sharp enough.

total former · 12-02-2015 5:59pm

Do You Even Squat wrote: »

Imagine this:
Sexton gets concussed and Madigan comes on after a poor outing against the Saxons who has played limited time at 10.
Any of the other 5 back line players, bar Murray, gets injured and Jones comes on.

and we get a look at Jones as a utility sub, improving our knowledge of the depth of the squad. Sounds good.

awec · 12-02-2015 6:05pm

Mod note: Tox56 will be doing a lot more match thread write ups in future.

ionadnapokot · 12-02-2015 6:08pm

Really enjoyed that write up got me through the slump.

redmca2 · 12-02-2015 6:49pm

Do You Even Squat wrote: »

We better pray Jones gets injured before Saturday, Fitzy gets drafted in and everyone else stays injury free.

I am surprised and disappointed that the moderator doesn't ban this contributor.

Praying for someone to get injured -- even an opponent -- to me is totally unacceptable

andymx11 · 12-02-2015 6:58pm

redmca2 wrote: »

I am surprised and disappointed that the moderator doesn't ban this contributor.

Praying for someone to get injured -- even an opponent -- to me is totally unacceptable

You were definitely "that" kid in school! Completely agree but I'm sure the mods will pick up on it all by themselves!

thebaz · 12-02-2015 6:58pm

stick Healy in for McGrath and that probably our starting XV for the WC.

Not sure how fit Sexton and SOB will be , but Joe would know much better than me

In Joe we trust

Do You Even Squat · 12-02-2015 6:59pm

redmca2 wrote: »

I am surprised and disappointed that the moderator doesn't ban this contributor.

Praying for someone to get injured -- even an opponent -- to me is totally unacceptable

Sarcasm.

vienne86 · 12-02-2015 7:07pm

redmca2 wrote: »

I am surprised and disappointed that the moderator doesn't ban this contributor.

Praying for someone to get injured -- even an opponent -- to me is totally unacceptable

Maybe just use the ignore button.

Rightwing · 12-02-2015 7:22pm

You never know with France, but I'd be expecting us to win this at a canter, upwards of 15 points to spare

Swiwi. · 12-02-2015 7:44pm

Pudsy33 wrote: »

It's mainly about how Joe has Leinster bias by dropping Keatley and TOD. Avoid

I always find such posts bemusing: they take those Irish political characteristics we all know and love (nepotism, regionalism, look-after-my-own-patch-come-hell-or-high-water-ism) and project them onto a Kiwi born and bred coach.

It's been discussed before, but in NZ all rugby roads lead to All Black land (sometimes at the expense of the provinces) and the public expects and demands that the best players are chosen, not the ones that live next door to the coach.

It's not even really considered that provincialism has entered a coach's thinking - if the man from Otago or Canterbury makes the ABs, it's because Steve and the other selectors think he's the best, not because Steve hails from Otago or played for Canterbury.

Most people on this forum know that Schmidt would select along these lines, and that his former stint at Leinster doesn't really come into it, but there are of course some who explain the non-selection of their local lads as being due to Schmidt's Bay of Plenty, Auckland Blues, Clermont-Ferrand Leinster bias.

SaveOurLyric · 12-02-2015 7:58pm

Swiwi. wrote: »

It's not even really considered that provincialism has entered a coach's thinking - if the man from Otago or Canterbury makes the ABs, it's because Steve and the other selectors think he's the best, not because Steve hails from Otago or played for Canterbury.

Most people on this forum know that Schmidt would select along these lines, and that his former stint at Leinster doesn't really come into it

But can it not nevertheless be that Schmidt can reason that Leinster player X is the best choice to pick, because he, Joe, coached him for 3 years and considers him the best placed to implement is plan, and not Other Province player Y, that he has not coached?
This is not bias. It is pragmatism. Yet results in Leinster players having a greater likelyhood of being picked than not Leinster players.

sydthebeat · 12-02-2015 8:05pm

At this stage Schmidt is in the Ireland job almost 1 1/2 years. .... time to let this provincial sh!te drop and accept that he chooses the best players to do the job as he sees fit.

Swiwi. · 12-02-2015 8:05pm

SaveOurLyric wrote: »

But can it not nevertheless be that Schmidt can reason that Leinster player X is the best choice to pick, because he, Joe, coached him for 3 years and considers him the best placed to implement is plan, and not Other Province player Y, that he has not coached?
This is not bias. It is pragmatism. Yet results in Leinster players having a greater likelyhood of being picked than not Leinster players.

I didn't say otherwise. However, Schmidt's time with Leinster is getting a bit distant now. I really think last weekend's selection completely put the Leinster-bias theory to bed: Keatley at 10, no room for Fitzgerald, not to mention POC as captain.

Anyway, I most definitely do not want to see the thread degenerate into a discussion about provincial bias, my main point is that Schmidt grew up in the NZ rugby system, and that you therefore can't automatically project the way things might be done in Ireland onto his selection methods.

thebaz · 12-02-2015 8:10pm

Swiwi. wrote: »

I always find such posts bemusing: they take those Irish political characteristics we all know and love (nepotism, regionalism, look-after-my-own-patch-come-hell-or-high-water-ism) and project them onto a Kiwi born and bred coach.

It's been discussed before, but in NZ all rugby roads lead to All Black land (sometimes at the expense of the provinces) and the public expects and demands that the best players are chosen, not the ones that live next door to the coach.

It's not even really considered that provincialism has entered a coach's thinking - if the man from Otago or Canterbury makes the ABs, it's because Steve and the other selectors think he's the best, not because Steve hails from Otago or played for Canterbury.

Most people on this forum know that Schmidt would select along these lines, and that his former stint at Leinster doesn't really come into it, but there are of course some who explain the non-selection of their local lads as being due to Schmidt's Bay of Plenty, Auckland Blues, Clermont-Ferrand Leinster bias.

Well said SiWi - personally i would like SOB rested , but how anyone could suggest Keatley and TOD are better than Sexton and SOB , and were dropped due to provincial bias is beyond me. I couldn't give a rats where a player was born in Ireland or who he plays for , just pick the best team to win. The fact that leinster have been the best performing province over the past few season, means he is obviously going to pick a lot of leinster. But who cares , keep winning and just pick the best.

fintans71 · 12-02-2015 8:15pm

Schmidt is picking o'brien and sexton because they are better than any other player on this island in there position. He doesn't just pick players from leinster just because he used to be the coach there. People who say that he only picks leinster players really annoy me.

Swiwi. · 12-02-2015 8:18pm

thebaz wrote: »

Well said SiWi - personally i would like SOB rested , but how anyone could suggest Keatley and TOD are better than Sexton and SOB , and were dropped due to provincial bias is beyond me. I couldn't give a rats where a player was born in Ireland or who he plays for , just pick the best team to win. The fact that leinster have been the best performing province over the past few season, means he is obviously going to pick a lot of leinster. But who cares , keep winning and just pick the best.

I'm not even remotely shocked about these selections: SOB is world class, and Jordi Murphy offers better cover across all the 3 back-row positions, so that is why TOD missed out; and while debate might exist about Madigan's ability to start a game at 10, he has consistently shown excellent impact from the bench during Schmidt's tenure, and that is why Keatley missed out.

He has also clearly decided that Felix Jones offers wing and FB cover, with Madigan covering 12, and Henshaw covering 13, and that is why Luke Fitzgerald and Keith Earls have missed out.

Obviously, the fact Isaac Boss has made the bench while Nathan White has missed out is because Schmidt has a thing about people born in Taranaki. Fairplay to him, those Taranaki lads are weird.

Rightwing · 12-02-2015 8:20pm

fintans71 wrote: »

Schmidt is picking o'brien and sexton because they are better than any other player on this island in there position. He doesn't just pick players from leinster just because he used to be the coach there. People who say that he only picks leinster players really annoy me.

There's a risk now playing O Brien, he mightn't last 5 minutes. First tackle and he could crumble.

Quint2010 · 12-02-2015 8:28pm

Great write up. Ireland playing with confidence, home advantage, all the big guns back and a coach who knows what he is doing to win by 15 points.

Montroseee · 12-02-2015 8:32pm

Been a long time since I was this confident of a win against the French, should be very comfortable IMO.

total former · 12-02-2015 8:34pm

Rightwing wrote: »

There's a risk now playing O Brien, he mightn't last 5 minutes. First tackle and he could crumble.

And he could spend 80 minutes skittling Frenchies. He's so good that the rewards are worth the risk.

.ak · 12-02-2015 8:40pm

Hehe... That is a cracking write up. Got some odd looks giggling at my phone...

Quint2010 · 12-02-2015 8:48pm

Rightwing wrote: »

There's a risk now playing O Brien, he mightn't last 5 minutes. First tackle and he could crumble.

Don't think it will be that bad but the French will target him physically if they have any sense. Which they don't.

vienne86 · 12-02-2015 8:53pm

Quint2010 wrote: »

Don't think it will be that bad but the French will target him physically if they have any sense. Which they don't.

They don't. And if they do target him they'd be stupid!

twinytwo · 12-02-2015 9:13pm

Rightwing wrote: »

There's a risk now playing O Brien, he mightn't last 5 minutes. First tackle and he could crumble.

ooooorrrrrrr..... he might introduce Krockott to the old tullow side step:pac:

ionadnapokot · 12-02-2015 9:21pm

forecast is for a dry day on Sat. forecast for game: Ireland scoring 2 tries. Heaslip and Bowe. Sexton to convert both. 2 from 4 pens. France to score a try off an inside pass from Fofana to Spedding, who will step off his left foot leaving RK grasping at thin air. Lopez to convert and kick 2 from 3. 20 v 13:pac:

Coburger · 12-02-2015 9:22pm

Rightwing wrote: »

You never know with France, but I'd be expecting us to win this at a canter, upwards of 15 points to spare

I think it'll be closer than that. I'm going for an Ireland win but maybe a 3 pointer. Having said that I thought the Italian game was going to be close as ewll.

JoeTheMuss · 12-02-2015 9:23pm

All those Taranaki boys are cow cockies anyway eh Swiwi.

Eugene Norman · 12-02-2015 9:37pm

thebaz wrote: »

stick Healy in for McGrath and that probably our starting XV for the WC.

Not sure how fit Sexton and SOB will be , but Joe would know much better than me

In Joe we trust

Our starting XV for the French game which comes last, barring injuries maybe, Not for Italy and others.

We have an easy group and it builds up to the hardest game which is the team we are playing this weekend.

JoeTheMuss · 12-02-2015 9:45pm

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Our starting XV for the French game which comes last, barring injuries maybe, Not for Italy and others.

We have an easy group and it builds up to the hardest game which is the team we are playing this weekend.

Dont think Payne will be our starting 13 for world cup, hopefully Fitzgerald or one of the young Ulster centres along side Henshaw would be a more dynamic partnership.

Zzippy · 12-02-2015 9:51pm

Folks, as in the buildup thread

Please see the zero tolerance policy sticky, particularly this bit

SPECIAL SECTION - Leinster/Munster

On this forum there is a fair bit of natural tribalism. We are not against that, it's very good and part of the game. Unfortunately, some people don't know how to handle it. constant arguing, bickering, bitching etc will result in bans. If a thread is pulled off topic by this behaviour all participants will be banned. Instead of getting involved and getting banned, report the posts.

Consider this final warning - if the thread is derailed by inter-provincial bickering bans will be handed out, no cards, just straight bans. Neither Munster nor Leinster are playing in the Aviva this weekend. Let's stop the BS and get behind the Irish team

leakyboots · 12-02-2015 10:54pm

A bit baffled by the TOD dropping, up the top of the tackle stakes and a fine try last weekend.

Not sure I want Madigan leading the charge if Sexton goes off after 10 mins.

I'd have stuck with the two fellas who played well last week and put Fitz on bench instead of Felix. Ah well, 'tis done now, time to row in behind 'em.

Going to this (and the England game!), first time in the new Landsdowne, looking forward to it!

vienne86 · 12-02-2015 10:57pm

The 23 shirt going to Jones still puzzles me, but if that's what Joe wants....that's OK with me.

Neil3030 · 12-02-2015 11:03pm

Has it not been already mentioned that Joe wants all players 12-15 to offer a kick chase and Jones offers better cover for the back three in this regard?

LorMal · 12-02-2015 11:05pm

Bound. To lose
1. Everyone thinks we will win (never a good omen)
2. Everyone thinks France will be ****e (never a good omen)
3. Basteraud and Fonana v Payne and Henshaw
4. We were poor against Italy but no one really wants to admit it
5. Banking too much on players returning from long spells injured
6 We kick too much - okay v Italy - dangerous v France.
Hope I am wrong (as usual).

leakyboots · 12-02-2015 11:05pm

Joe makes baffling decisions... but keeps winning. Long may it continue I guess!

Tox56 · 12-02-2015 11:12pm

leakyboots wrote: »

A bit baffled by the TOD dropping, up the top of the tackle stakes and a fine try last weekend.

Not sure I want Madigan leading the charge if Sexton goes off after 10 mins.

I'd have stuck with the two fellas who played well last week and put Fitz on bench instead of Felix. Ah well, 'tis done now, time to row in behind 'em.

Going to this (and the England game!), first time in the new Landsdowne, looking forward to it!

Baffled? There was barely anything between TOD and Murphy last week, Murphy, playing 8, made the most carries, and TOD, playing 7, made a lot of tackles. They were both good

Madigan has always been a reliable bench option under Schmidt and he's regularly made an impact from there. I don't think either selection is in any way surprising, much less 'baffling'

Podge_irl · 12-02-2015 11:13pm

France are ****. Their one decent performance in the last year was at home to us and we still won.

Ireland are simply a better team and if we lose it will be an upset.

duckysauce · 12-02-2015 11:23pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

France are ****. Their one decent performance in the last year was at home to us and we still won.

Ireland are simply a better team and if we lose it will be an upset.

did pretty well against England too

12-02-2015 11:26pm

Tox56 wrote: »

Baffled? There was barely anything between TOD and Murphy last week, Murphy, playing 8, made the most carries, and TOD, playing 7, made a lot of tackles. They were both good

Madigan has always been a reliable bench option under Schmidt and he's regularly made an impact from there. I don't think either selection is in any way surprising, much less 'baffling'

Murray Kinsella did his ruck marks thing for the game and TOD had a lot of contributions at the ruck too, he'd a good game. 13 tackles in a game where we'd an large amount of possession is also very impressive. I don't think Murphy covers the whole backrow to the very highest standard but he does cover the whole backrow, combine this with the fact he also had a good game last weekend and I'd imagine that's what got him the spot.

Match Thread: IRELAND vs France, Aviva Stadium, Sat. 14th Feb, KO 17:00

Who wins? 204 votes

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