Tornado Season 2015

Simon Gruber Says

We'll start with a less common area this year. Slight risk today is North Central California. Few small tornadoes possible if things get going.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2015

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MOSTLY OVER NRN CENTRAL VALLEY
OF CA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE OVER MUCH OF NRN AND
CENTRAL CA...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME INTENSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST THROUGH PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING BOTH WEAK MEAN RIDGING OVER WRN STATES AND
WEAK MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN CONUS. LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM IA TO CENTRAL/ERN KS -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AROUND 18Z AND UPPER OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. NEXT PERTURBATION -- NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN MEAN RIDGE OVER
NRN ROCKIES -- IS FCST TO TURN SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...REACHING PORTIONS NEB/KS/OK BY 00Z AND MID SOUTH AND LOWER
MS VALLEY BY 12Z. PRECEDING PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MEAGER
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEPTH FOR A LTG STRIKE OR TWO
DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD...OVER TN VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR GENERAL-TSTM LINE ATTM.

STG PAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
APCHG 130W...BETWEEN 30N-40N. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
ENEWD...CROSSING NRN CA AND ORE COAST BETWEEN 06-12Z. SFC COLD
FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY AS OF 12Z WITH FINE LINE AND OCNL
DEEPER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ROUGHLY FROM 36N128W-32N128W-28N131W-
24N137W. FRONTAL BAND WILL PRECEDE MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING
ASHORE AND INLAND NRN CA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. STRONGEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY BEHIND LOW-LEVEL FRONT LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EVENING.

...NRN-CENTRAL CA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL
CHARACTERIZE PASSAGE OF MAIN PRECIP BAND ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT
TODAY. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVENING. ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS...MRGL-SVR HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
MOST SUSTAINED/INTENSE CELLS...WHETHER IN BAROCLINIC BAND OR IN ZONE
OF COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT BEHIND IT.

OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED BACKING OF SFC WINDS BENEATH STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL YIELD STG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE ANTECEDENT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE IN
21-02Z TIME FRAME...SHIFTING W-E ACROSS NRN PARTS OF CENTRAL VALLEY.
POTENTIAL FOR SUCH DESTABILIZATION LOOKS SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN IN
PREVIOUS FCST CYCLES GIVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL TIMING. FOR A
COUPLE HOURS IN ANY GIVEN LOCALE...PATCHY CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW WEAK
SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION JUXTAPOSED WITH ONSET OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COOLING ALOFT...WHILE HODOGRAPHS STILL ARE FAVORABLY LARGE. THEN
VEERING POSTFRONTAL SFC WINDS WILL SHRINK HODOGRAPHS AND REDUCE
STORM-RELATIVE NEAR-SFC FLOW...WHILE LOSS OF SUNSHINE STARTS TO
STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER. MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE WITH JUST
2-3 DEG F SFC HEATING BEHIND INITIAL PRECIP PLUME...KEEPING LCL LOW
WITH SFC DEW POINTS MAINLY MID-UPPER 50S F. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AMIDST 250-350 J/KG 0-1-KM
SRH...BASED ON FCST RANGE OF ENEWD-NEWD CELL MOTIONS.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 02/08/2015

Simon Gruber Says

It's been quiet so far, with only two reported tornadoes in February and none in March this far, which isn't a bad thing but, the peak of the season is still a bit off and there will probably be an increase in activity come April. There's a slight risk for tomorrow and Wednesday in the central states, with the latter looking the better of the two days for supercell development if things get organised.

Detailed info can be found here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Simon Gruber Says

Upgrade to a Moderate risk today. The picture in the OP automatically updates to the current Day One Convective Outlook. Also can be seen is the new "enhanced risk" that the SPC are using this year, that falls between slight and moderate risk of severe thunderstorms.

SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER WY/CO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KS/OK THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OZARKS/MID-MS VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. TWO
WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES OVER WRN NM AND W TX WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVENING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS/OZARKS TUESDAY WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WILL RESULT IN UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 DEW
POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL/ERN OK...AR...EWD TO WRN PORTIONS OF
TN/KY.

...SRN PLNS/OZARKS TO LWR OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL BECOME BETTER FOCUSED
BY MID/LATE AFTN ACROSS SWRN/W-CENTRAL OK...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
MO/IL. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF N TX. LATER THIS EVENING...THE STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
OVERTAKE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SURFACE
FEATURE.

STG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN KS AIDED BY
LOW-LEVEL WAA. REF MCD 138 FOR THE LATEST SHORT-TERM DETAILS IN THIS
AREA. BY MID-AFTN...STRENGTHENING LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELDS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAPID
SURFACE-BASED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN MO/NRN AR WWD TO
NRN/CENTRAL OK. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND MODEST LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMBINE TO REDUCE CINH ACROSS NRN OK EWD TO
SRN MO/AR. INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS WILL POSE A LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK...WITH A TORNADO POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE
HAIL...IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ORIENTATION OF SHEAR VECTORS
RELATIVE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGESTS EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO
SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS IS LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE DOMINANT
RISK EWD THROUGH THE OH RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.

ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN OK...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NCEP HRRR ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING
UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE...LARGE SFC TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS AND RESULTANT HIGH
LCL HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OK.

FARTHER SOUTH...MORE ISOLD SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS PSBL SWD ALONG
THE DRYLINE INTO PORTIONS OF N TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KTS
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. LATER TONIGHT...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT INTO N TX.

...CAROLINAS...
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE AND WITHIN A MOIST
/PW AOA ONE INCH/ AIR MASS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.
WHILE A WEAKLY ROTATING STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE OVERALL SVR RISK IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE
SVR PROBS WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

..BUNTING/MEAD/COHEN.. 03/25/2015


Also to note is that TVN, Reed Timmers team, have released a mobile app that allows you to watch the chaser streams on iOS and Android. There's plenty of chasers watching the developing storms at the moment and will be streaming throughout the evening.

Iancar29

Be sure to click the satellite overlay , looks great!
http://www.chasertv.com/


Live streams here.
https://tvnweather.com/live

Simon Gruber Says

Confirmed tornado on the ground, heading toward Tulsa Oklahoma at the moment.

Iancar29

Tulsa Nado...


El Reno could reproduce again too now ...

Simon Gruber Says

Yeah, I'm watching SinnerStorm's feed, looks amazing. He's on the same roads where the Twistex team lost their lives in 2013.

Iancar29

Exactly , not good

Simon Gruber Says

Tornado in Moore, Oklahoma....again

V_Moth

Simon Gruber Says wrote: »

Tornado in Moore, Oklahoma....again

1 killed unfortunately - http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/tornado-flash-flood-warnings-issued-oklahoma-article-1.2162548

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=0ae_1427338835

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DeWES97jfg

Bsal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAzT5yz_36w

Simon Gruber Says

Slight risk of seeing severe thunderstorms in various parts of the South and Midwest US for today until Friday. Might see some upgrades to that later in the week.

Simon Gruber Says

Great footage of a developing tornado on TVNweather at the moment

Simon Gruber Says

Three storms in a line with hook echoes, coming very close to Joplin.

maquiladora

Moderate Risk today.

Iancar29

First decent surface storm cell going up south of Woodward
https://tvnweather.com/live

monster1

very large tornado streaming now on tvnweather

maquiladora

Moderate Risk in Texas tonight.

Bsal

Some good chases going on right now

https://tvnweather.com/live

Oneiric 3

Kevin Saunders stream looking good. Nice wall cloud with strong inflow evident.

El Horseboxo

Been fairly quiet for me so far. Some impressive lightning storms. But not many watches in my part of Oklahoma. I'm almost sadistic in wishing for something.

maquiladora

Live local news here http://www.fox4news.com/category/264130/stream-1

Super-Rush

maquiladora wrote: »

Live local news here http://www.fox4news.com/category/264130/stream-1

Dublin is in the firing line :eek:

maquiladora

Mile wide F4 wedge tornado. Live coverage.

http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NEWCASTLE WEST TO BRIDGE CREEK AND AREAS SOUTH
OF THE H.E. BAILEY TURNPIKE. TAKE COVER NOW. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.

Iancar29

Was just gonna post ... El Reno part II

Simon Gruber Says

Heading for Moore/OKC....again

maquiladora

Looks like it weakened quite a bit.

Simon Gruber Says

Now Norman is in the firing line of the new circulation

Simon Gruber Says

If I ever go storm chasing in Oklahoma, I'm going to set up camp at that Warren theatre in Moore. Everything seems to pass right by it in the past couple of years.

Supercell

Been watching the coverage for the last half hour or so, looks like Moore is having a rough time of it again with massive flooding and two supercells on route right now.

Simon Gruber Says

Worth keeping an eye on the same area tonight and tomorrow. Moderate risk for both days, with Saturday looking to be the more active of the two with "a substantial severe weather event" possible.