Wales vs England; Friday 6th Feb.

Losty Dublin

Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff Date: Friday, 6 February Kick-off: 20:05 GMT



Live TV on RTE 2/HD BBC 1/HD, Red Button, Radio 5 live, BBC Radio Wales, Radio Cymru, the BBC Sport website, S4C online and via the BBC iPlayer and the RTE Player.



15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Luther Burrell, 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs; 1 Joe Marler, 2 Dylan Hartley, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Dave Attwood, 5 George Kruis, 6 James Haskell, 7 Chris Robshaw, 8 Billy B Vunipola.

Replacements: 16 Tom Youngs, 17 Mako Vunipola, 18 Kieran Brookes, 19 Tom Croft, 20 Nick Easter, 21 Richard Wigglesworth, 22 Danny Cipriani, 23 Billy Twelvetrees.



15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North; 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb; 1 Gethin Jenkins, 2 Richard Hibbard, 3 Samson Lee; 4 Jake Ball, 5 Alun Wyn Jones; 6 Dan Lydiate, 7 Sam Warburton (c), 8 Taulupe Faletau.

Replacements: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Paul James, 18 Aaron Jarvis, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Mike Phillips, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 Liam Williams.

Preview.


Ahhhh, England versus Wales. The rugby match that is so good that a song was written about it.

This year Cardiff hosts a game between two teams who once upon a time were dominant forces in Six Nations Rugby. This time round could not be further from those days; Wales have been poor since their back to back wins in 2012/3 while England are searching for their first wins since 2011 and, bizarrely, 2003. Indeed, the novelty of a Friday International is almost overshadowing the game rugby itself, something utterly unthinkable to the RFU and WRU even a few seasons ago.


So how do two once dominant nations square off in a game between possible has beens? 


In England’s case, a lot of the blame is down to the local structures of the game. Clubs are eager for silver wear and they can ill afford to wait for the next Wade Dooley or Jeremy Guscott when they can buy one in for next Sunday in the Stoop at the expense of new talent. Of course it doesn't help that the team management have been less that stellar but one can argue that the players aren’t there like they once here (Last Friday’s A game was arguably the worst England tight 5 in years; their out halves were poor as well.).

In the case of Wales, there’s a bit more going on. Gatland (Below, checking if the roof has been opened.) has lost his ability to get the best out of his players and his best players have lost the ability to get the best out of themselves as well. Selections have come and gone only to be replaced with players who end up playing equally mediocre rugby at times and yet capable of big results at times. Add to it a slump in the general fortunes of the local clubs in the Pro 12 and Champions Cup and an exodus to England and and it gives a dour outlook to 2015.





Head to Head

Much of this game depends in England’s somewhat make shift pack can fit the ball up their tight new jumpers and if their equally makeshift back line can get the ball out of said shirts and make some use of it in the back line. Lancaster’s team has been hindered by injuries across the field. Tuilagi, Farrell, Wilson, Launchbury, Lawes, Wood and Morgan are all out; Dylan Hartley returns to the front row after yet another red card while Saracens' George Kruis (Below) makes his first start in second row. On the bench Danny Cipriani is back due to an injury risk on Stephen Nyler while Harlequin’s Nick Easter is recalled to the bench for the first time since RWC 2011.





In spite of everything that went wrong for them in in 2014, Wales pick a similar team to that which beat the Springboks 12-6 in November. George North returns to the back line at the expense of Liam Williams while Richard Hibbert is preferred to Scott Baldwin as hooker. This should stand to Wales’s benefit provided that their pack don’t get tied up in slow rucks, if they use and retain their line out and if they activate their more potent back line. England for their benefit will not be bullied in the tight but their discipline will be tested and tested hard. If players fall then England will fall as well.


Verdict

This game will go two ways and it’s up to the home team to decide how it goes. Either Wales will be too mobile and organised for England they and run amok or England will turn the screw and count down the clock, kick by kick. England have been slowly improving game by game but bad and all as Wales have been, they generally lift it up in early Spring for a few games. Let’s hope that it’s this one Gatland works his magic on. I saw Wales to win something like about 20 points to 14 but doubtless I will be exceptionally wrong as usual :pac:





And as for that song.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0RDadPheNQ

durkadurka

I favour Wales by 8-10

Swiwi.

So how do two once dominant nations square off in a game between possible has beens?


That is a big call Losty, and one that could leave Welsh or English egg on Irish face later in the tournament.

Although I think Gatland's novelty factor has long since worn off, I expect his team to probably lift this season with the RWC in mind, and the Welsh team is generally better than the sum of it's disparate and at times desperate clubs.

England are currently hamstrung with a Leinster- than Ulster-like injury list, but with the exception of Kruis and one-trick pony Vunipola (whose one-trick was very good v Munster it must be said), that English pack is solid enough, although the backs are rather light on international experience, I am told they are pretty much to a man in good Aviva Premiership form.

I expect Wales to win this reasonably comfortably, and possibly run riot (the other option I could see is narrow English victory)

Waering my NZ hat, I might be a tad blase about Wales, but I would never ever write an English team off.

Fairplay and cheers for whipping out the preview anyway!

S12b

The Millennium Stadium on a Friday night with the roof closed and 85,000 Welsh passionately hating all things England......is there anything better??

.ak

Gonna call England here. Think ford, Burrell and JJ to click and cause havoc. Burrell moves to 13 later in the game and 12x3s comes on to steady the ship and turn the screw.

duckysauce

S12b wrote: »

The Millennium Stadium on a Friday night with the roof closed and 85,000 Welsh passionately hating all things England......is there anything better??

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/rugby-union/31138532

Roof is open England for me that welsh pack is nothing special.

jdbarry

Yeah I'm leaning towards the English also, I know Wales gave them a good battering the last time around in Cardiff but can't see England being bullied to the same extent. Certainly don't think it will be a comfortable win for Wales. Can't wait for it!

Fireball07

I just think England, even with their injuries, are a better side these days.


But the Welsh backline does look good. If Scott Williams was there, it might look even better.

irishbucsfan

I think it Webb/Biggar play well then Wales will win. I think the Welsh have the better pack, so I'd just be concerned that they use the ball well, I'm sure they'll have enough of it to win the game.

English Lurker

I'm backing Wales.

Partly because seemingly everytime I go against England here, they win.

But mainly because Wales simply have a more experienced, more cohesive team. Take the centres, for instance. I feel it is near inevitable that at some point, Burrell-Joseph will make a mistake because they're not sure where the other one is and they take a half-second too long to decide as a result. That's far less likely to happen to Roberts-Davies. All over the team, the Welsh have that level of understanding. Webb might be a greenhorn, but he's next to his club team mate. Elsewise, there's a bit of rawness in the tight five, but that's it. It's a well honed unit and I'm very surprised at how much Losty seems to be down on the Welsh. There's only been one 6N since those back-to-back wins and they've just beaten SA, but they're on a dour outlook? Doesn't make sense to me.`

I'll be the first to say Gatlandball looks a dead end for Wales against the SANZAR mob, but it's proven itself in terms of beating up 6N teams, and I feel really wary about saying that spell's definitely broken. It would not be the first time they have plumbed the depths for a season or two before coming back and winning it. Since 2008, Wales have gone 1st-4th-4th-4th-1st-1st-3rd. Consistency is not part of the DNA. Hopefully they'll be stinking for a bit further but I have my doubts. Last year they had issues with tighthead and half-back. This year they have new players there in Lee, Webb and Biggar - if they hold, I feel anyone doubting Wales might be eating their words. It's a nasty thing to say, but one of the best things that could happen for England would be if Lee wasn't really fit and had to come off. If Lee goes off, then I think Marler could munch Jarvis, and from there things happen.

It looks 60-40 in favour of Wales to me, give or take.

As for England - well, I've got a dissertation I could write on player development and Losty's comments but feel this isn't the moment; we are low on experience, we are low on cohesion and we are low on match winners. Everyone there belongs in the international arena (save maybe Wigglesworth and Easter...) but it's all a bit stout yeomen and a few players need to step forwards and say "I can do it". We could get an edge on them at the set-piece, which would be huge. Marler, Attwood and Ford will be our key players. Big weakness will be midfield defence, where Burrell has been repeatedly exposed in the AP - in fact, I'll disagree with Swiwi's source and say that Burrell is not in good form.

wittycynic

Very nice write up, good job!

At full strength this is not a vintage England team, and so it doesn't help them that their injury list holds the names of the majority to their top quality players. With both teams at full complement I might have given this to England. With the teams that have been named, it's hard to look past Wales.

There are few teams that could comfortably operate while missing the likes of Farrell, Parling, Launchbury, Lawes, and Tuilagi, to name but a few. England won't be an exception to that.

Wales by seven to ten points.

molloyjh

Yeah possible has beens is pushing it. England were the only team to beat Ireland all last year and were within points difference (and a forward pass) of winning the trophy last time out. And Wales won it the time before that. One off season (was it even an off season, they comfortably beat France and trounced Scotland) does not a dour outlook make. They've been consistently bad vs SANZAR for years but are more than capable of beating any and all 6 Nations opposition.

Wales have to be favourites here purely based on the fact that they are at home with a more settled and experienced squad. Lancaster for all his qualities as a coach (and I admire the guy a lot) doesn't seem to have the tactical nous to out think the opposition. For me their best performance last year was against us and that was a superb defensive effort with an opportunist try to get the win. They'll need more than that in Cardiff tomorrow and I'm not sure he can provide it. Add to that the injuries to the squad and I'm not sure I can see where or how England can win this one. Maybe of Ford steps up and takes control, but is he there yet?

freyners

Wales for me, not a repeat of the 30-3 we saw last time round but by more than a score imo.

razorblunt

.ak wrote: »

Gonna call England here. Think ford, Burrell and JJ to click and cause havoc. Burrell moves to 13 later in the game and 12x3s comes on to steady the ship and turn the screw.

Yep, I think so too, it's almost too close to call, but I can see England frustrating the Welsh both players and crowd.

total former

Reckon Wales will edge it, that England team is too unsettled, too many new combinations. It might well click and blow Wales away, they definitely have the personnel to do it, but it's a long shot.

I think Wales have finally got a decent half-back partnership going too which should help get the best out of their backline.

There are reasons why both teams could win, there are reasons why both teams could lose.

I'm calling it evens but with home advantage I think Wales are slight favourites.

Either way - I can. not. wait.

funtime93

How the hell does Scott Williams not even make the bench?!! Gatland is so set in his ways. He persists with big name players no matter how poorly they're playing. Same thing with tipuric who has to be one of the most underrated players around yet can never get in ahead of lydiate who has done literally nothing for the past 3 years.

ionadnapokot

Yea same reason that I'm going for Wales. Much more settled side and at home. Wales by 5

thomond2006

I really like the idea of Friday night games. Something to look forward to while at work on Friday!

funtime93

thomond2006 wrote: »

I really like the idea of Friday night games. Something to look forward to while at work on Friday!

Have Ireland ever played on a Friday??

Webbs

thomond2006 wrote: »

I really like the idea of Friday night games. Something to look forward to while at work on Friday!

Wait until Ireland have a Friday night game and you want to go to the match! Very different atmosphere around Cardiff on a Fri night game as opposed to Saturday.

As for the match, if reports are to be believed Gatland has been beasting the Wales Team with weight and fitness training and not so much tactical/skills training with the RWC in mind.
I think that this was evident over the Autumn and ironically the Welsh may not last 80. Normally I would say Wales by 7 with the teams picked but I think it may be a hell of a lot tighter and could be down to a mistake from either team in last few minutes

exiledelbows

funtime93 wrote: »

Have Ireland ever played on a Friday??

No, but we will in Cardiff in 2017. Also, if you mean ever ever, I think we played a RWC game on a Friday in 1999, USA or Romania?

Del.Monte

Wales to run riot - hopefully.

aimee1

funtime93 wrote: »

Have Ireland ever played on a Friday??

France In 2007 wc in paris

thomond2006

funtime93 wrote: »

How the hell does Scott Williams not even make the bench?!! Gatland is so set in his ways. He persists with big name players no matter how poorly they're playing. Same thing with tipuric who has to be one of the most underrated players around yet can never get in ahead of lydiate who has done literally nothing for the past 3 years.

Gatland has shown he doesn't care if his untouchables are undercooked. He selected Gethin Jenkins for the Lions despite being 2nd/3rd choice LH at Toulon, he selected Lydiate who barely played for Racing for 18 months and he continues to select Roberts who is second choice behind Alexandre Dumoulin.

I'd say Williams will be off out of Wales if he continues to be ignored. I'd pay for his flight over to Munster!

ShriekingSheet

A headline on the front of the Daily Telegraph Sport tomorrow (on Broadsheet now) says something about "dirty tricks" and "illegal tactics" by the English ahead of the game. Anyone any idea what that is?

It's just a headline, so could easily be pure hype.

irishbucsfan

ShriekingSheet wrote: »

A headline on the front of the Daily Telegraph Sport tomorrow (on Broadsheet now) says something about "dirty tricks" and "illegal tactics" by the English ahead of the game. Anyone any idea what that is?

It's just a headline, so could easily be pure hype.

Maybe a sensationalised interpretation of this interview:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/wales/11392684/Wales-v-England-Shaun-Edwards-warns-of-English-dirty-tricks-ahead-of-Six-Nations-opener.html

Losty Dublin

ShriekingSheet wrote: »

A headline on the front of the Daily Telegraph Sport tomorrow (on Broadsheet now) says something about "dirty tricks" and "illegal tactics" by the English ahead of the game. Anyone any idea what that is?

It's just a headline, so could easily be pure hype.

It's just vintage Gatland bollocks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/11394270/Six-Nations-2015-England-hit-back-at-Wales-accusations-of-dirty-tricks.html

CatFromHue

I think the English illegal tactic is that they're going to scrum properly on Gethin Jenkins!

sydthebeat

I think Wales will win this despite of gatland rather than because of.

I think north is going to pop up in midfield a lot more than usual and will make hay from It.

I'm going Wales by 6

Cleared the fire place last night, stacked coal and turf ready to go, have TV rights booked for the evening and two bottles of Torpedo in the fridge.

Wales V England let's be having ye!

funtime93

funtime93 wrote: »

How the hell does Scott Williams not even make the bench?...

It's taken Biggar 4 years too. Williams would start @ 12 for Ireland tomorrow (Payne to bench).
Don't think I'll ever forget the Leinster v Scarlets game where we obliterated them and Williams was my MoTM with two try saving tackles. That's the kind of player you want on your side imo.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to this game for the unpredictability. If that English backline clicks it could be Globetrotter-esque. Equally, as English Lurker mentioned above, the Green-ness of them will undoubtedly see errors happen.

We've had 10 years or so of England "bully boy" packs beating their way forward to feed the backline to finish off. Is this the era of England's champagne rugby? Ford over Farrell, JJ over Barrit etc.

This could easily be a spectacle!

Buer

Hmmmm, can anyone tell me is there any case in history where both teams lost and can it be repeated today?

If I had to go for a winner, I'd say Wales will do it but I would rather England win because:

1. F*ck Wales and
2. We've to go to Wales. If they win tonight, they'll be thinking that beating us in Cardiff will be the key game to their championship.

irishbucsfan

Scott Williams has been a liability in the tight throughout his career and it infuriates his coaches. To what degree that is still true I'm not sure, but if it's at all still the case then that will be the reason for his omission.

thomond2006

Buer wrote: »

Hmmmm, can anyone tell me is there any case in history where both teams lost and can it be repeated today?

A draw is as bad as a loss really!

irishbucsfan

funtime93 wrote: »

How the hell does Scott Williams not even make the bench?!! Gatland is so set in his ways. He persists with big name players no matter how poorly they're playing. Same thing with tipuric who has to be one of the most underrated players around yet can never get in ahead of lydiate who has done literally nothing for the past 3 years.

Again this whole Tipuric thing comes up... Gatland has been vindicated in his selection of packs throughout his career but people forget that every time his teams approach a new series of games!

As if Dan Lydiate and Justin Tipuric were competing for the same role in the team... They bring entirely seperate skill sets to the game, there's hardly any overlap at all in the areas they excel in. Warburton is the player in that team that Tipuric needs to beat out, and Warburton is better than him in almost all facets of the game (aside from link play I'd say).

Clearlier

This is a difficult one to call. It doesn't pay to underestimate the incentive that the English players have to play well. They have a year of consistent high level performances to look back on now. Even with their injury list I just can't see them being blown away. I lean towards England in the end but mostly because I don't like splinters up my backside.

.ak

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Scott Williams has been a liability in the tight throughout his career and it infuriates his coaches. To what degree that is still true I'm not sure, but if it's at all still the case then that will be the reason for his omission.

In what sense? Anytime I've watched him he's very effective at the breakdown. For my money he's the best 12 in the British Isles right now.

Buer

funtime93 wrote: »

How the hell does Scott Williams not even make the bench?!! Gatland is so set in his ways. He persists with big name players no matter how poorly they're playing. Same thing with tipuric who has to be one of the most underrated players around yet can never get in ahead of lydiate who has done literally nothing for the past 3 years.

Tipuric does not possess the physicality to cope with larger packs. He has been shown up a number of times. He is a great talent but has been chewed up and spat out of rucks on a number of occasions. Sam Warburton is head and shoulders above him, to my mind. Moving Warburton over to be a less effective blindside to accommodate Tipuric would weaken the side overall.

.ak

Problem with Tips as well is he always tries something mad in terms of getting the ball away. At club level that's fine, but those sort of mistakes at international level can be the difference between winning a 6n and coming 3rd. He's outrageously talanted but is also a bit light in terms of his frame and gets blown out of the ruck easily. One of my memories of him was when Leinster played Ospreys in Swansea in the HEC and Gopperth blew him out of a ruck, twice.

I have a sneaky feeling that England by a score to win

irishbucsfan

.ak wrote: »

In what sense? Anytime I've watched him he's very effective at the breakdown. For my money he's the best 12 in the British Isles right now.

He constantly gets blown out. Eoin Reddan knocked him off the ball once in the red zone while he was playing for Scarlets, which is a single example but still a pretty bad one. It's always been a weakness of his and it's a cardinal sin in this setup.

irishbucsfan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

He constantly gets blown out. Eoin Reddan knocked him off the ball once in the red zone while he was playing for Scarlets, which is a single example but still a pretty bad one. It's always been a weakness of his and it's a cardinal sin in this setup.

Tomás O'Leary decimated Healy once.

.ak

I dunno, must be watching the wrong games, but in the last few months I've been watching him pretty closely and he has great body position over the ruck and seems very strong. He's had a good few turn overs this season too, and not just on isolated backs. Although really, a 12 just needs to be able to secure his own ball if the midfield crash it up, he doesn't need to be a breakdown specialist, just decent at clearing.

.ak

Deleted User wrote: »

Tomás O'Leary decimated Healy once.

So if I understand you - and I believe that I do - is you're saying... TOL and Reddan Ireland's new 12/13 combo?

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Tomás O'Leary decimated Healy once.

At a ruck? My recollection of that is it was a high shot that knocked Healy out.

Shaun Poor Checkbook

Shaun Poor Checkbook wrote: »

At a ruck? My recollection of that is it was a high shot that knocked Healy out.

Correct, I was being facetious (a common enough trend in my posting tbh!).

.ak wrote: »

So if I understand you - and I believe that I do - is you're saying... TOL and Reddan Ireland's new 12/13 combo?

The real bash brothers.

Anyway! Back on topic. RUGBY, 6Nations, England, Wales, Cardiff, Stephen Jones, The Other Stephen Jones, All the rest of the Joneses, A few Rhyses and a Thomas or two.

irishbucsfan

.ak wrote: »

I dunno, must be watching the wrong games, but in the last few months I've been watching him pretty closely and he has great body position over the ruck and seems very strong. He's had a good few turn overs this season too, and not just on isolated backs. Although really, a 12 just needs to be able to secure his own ball if the midfield crash it up, he doesn't need to be a breakdown specialist, just decent at clearing.

Defensive breakdown work is far less relevant to this team.

His problem was always the amount he got turned over himself and his inability to make any sort of impact in the tight off the ball. I'd say he's far better at it now than he was a few years ago though, when it was obvious, I can't say it's stood out as a weakness too much to me this season.

penybont exile

Fabulous day here in South Wales.

Let's hope the game lives up to the endless column inches.

Heading into Cardiff in soon ........ Reasonably confident of victory but sport can be unpredictable ............

bilston

I would usually be cheering on our Celtic cousins in this particular game but thinking selfishly Welsh momentum is often an irresistable force and I just worry that if they win tonight they will be unbeatable by the time we turn up in Cardiff in Rd4. For that reason alone I'm supporting England tonight. We have them at home and I fancy our chances against anyone on Dublin no matter what sort of form they are in.

vienne86

I don't know who to root for here because I don't want either team to win. Both coaches need a win. I really hope Wales are not too good, because their tails will be up when we have to go to Cardiff. But I just can't bring myself to root for England, I just can't do it! Draw would be mighty!