FTSE 100

For ever odd

As there seems to be alot of interest in the FTSE 100,(thanks to Arrowloopboy LIVE TRADE thread) here is a thread to give your opinions on fundamentals, technical levels, geopolitical, seasonality, fx, sectors, dividends and individual stocks.

It could be interesting to see the effects of the above and how each influence the direction of the FTSE as they unfold.

For ever odd

Forgot governor carney, any more please add.

arrowloopboy

Q1 and Q4 are statistically by far the best 1/4s giving about 3% on average with Q2 and Q3 usually little better than flat,bear this in mind:D,.

ulinbac

FTSE gives on average 5.5% historic return.

Think we could see more this year though, but anything can happen.

With the small % return, better off spreadbetting it

ixus

I think the first 6 months are going to be volatile.

For ever odd

Some basic levels to keep an eye on. (SUPPORT PIVOT RESISTANCE)

weekly S3 6509 S2 6538 S1 6575 P 6604 R1 6641 R2 6670 R3 6706 (light trading last week so next weeks will be more apt.)


Monthly S3 5518 S2 5821 S1 6157 P 6460 R1 6796 R2 7098 R3 7434

4 week high 6762
4 week low 6124

I will post levels weekly but if anyone wants to post daily levels, feel free to do so.

I will try and post economic data events (time permitting). PMI construction on Monday 9.30
58.5 expected.

Outside of UK, data to be watched this week are FED minutes on Wednesday 7.00pm and non farm payrolls on Friday 1.30pm

For ever odd

Sorry just spotted my mistake. Amended hi/lo/close.

Week 1 levels

R3 6903
R2 6734
R1 6638
P 6565
S1 6469
S2 6396
S3 6227

Month 1 levels
R3 7738
R2 7099
R1 6796
P 6460
S1 6157
S2 5821
S3 5182

4 Week high 6762
4 Week low 6124

For ever odd

shares.telegraph.co.uk/sectors/

Good site, gives a good bit of information through all the links.

For ever odd

With record money being pulled out of hedge funds, possible Greek default, low oil prices, and Ukraine/Russia still in the mix, I find it hard to make a case to buy the FTSE at the moment.

For ever odd

Monetary statement and interest rate at 12.00 no surprises expected.
Equities rallied yesterday and this morning on fed. No interest hike till after April at earliest.
Currently around 6510

eeepaulo

Might find this useful, its stock quote by bishinews for android, i use it to track my portfolio plus news on shares on my mobile but it also has an economic calendar

Screenshot_2015-01-08-12-01-26.png

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

hi/lo/close.

Week 1 levels

R3 6903
R2 6734
R1 6638
P 6565
S1 6469
S2 6396
S3 6227

Month 1 levels
R3 7738
R2 7099
R1 6796
P 6460
S1 6157
S2 5821
S3 5182

4 Week high 6762
4 Week low 6124

Week 2 levels
R3 6978
R2 6722
R1 6604
P 6466
S1 6348
S2 6210
S3 5953

For ever odd

Best 3 sectors
Food and drug +8.89%
Mobile telecommunications +4.33%
Non life insurance +3.78%

Worst 3
Electricity -1.31%
Oil equipment, services and distribution -0.92%
Household goods and construction -0.07%

For ever odd

Tuesday 9.30 raft of news. Consumer price index is going to dominate this week.

lucky john

The ECJ preliminary judgement on the legality of ecb bond buying is due on Wednesday.

For ever odd

lucky john wrote: »

The ECJ preliminary judgement on the legality of ecb bond buying is due on Wednesday.

How do you think the FTSE would react to a legal/illegal ruling?

lucky john

For ever odd wrote: »

How do you think the FTSE would react to a legal/illegal ruling?

this action was as a result of a German case against the ecb buying bonds. If the preliminary ruling agrees with them then it is possible any qe will be held up either permanently at worst or temporally at best. Either way a headache for Draghi. It would inevitably be a negative for Europe and the ftse.

However, market opinion seems to be that bond buying is not against the rules and this will be another step on the road to certain qe. It should boost the markets in the run up to January 22nd.

ftse100

For ever odd wrote: »

Week 2 levels
R3 6978
R2 6722
R1 6604
P 6466
S1 6348
S2 6210
S3 5953

Hey For Ever Odd, Could you explain the above Figures to me as I'm very new to the technical side of the market and would love to learn more

For ever odd

The advocate general will give his opinion/ assessment on Wednesday, I think the final ruling is later in the year.

I think the ecb has come up with a new way around this, that will appease Germany. It looks like the ecb will announce some measure,but it won't be what the markets are barking for.
With the Greek elections three days after, which in turn could lead to a possible exit from the EZ and maybe a Default( are the good people of Ireland going to look for a haircut).
The uncertainty is what will keep investors out for now.

For ever odd

ftse100 wrote: »

Hey For Ever Odd, Could you explain the above Figures to me as I'm very new to the technical side of the market and would love to learn more

Investopedia.com/ask/answers/forex/forex-pivot-pionts.asp

I am a K.I.S.S man

For ever odd

ixus wrote: »

I think the first 6 months are going to be volatile.

Sure will, If the first two weeks are anything to go by.
In and out seems to be the way to go.

For ever odd

lucky john wrote: »

However, market opinion seems to be that bond buying is not against the rules and this will be another step on the road to certain qe. It should boost the markets in the run up to January 22nd.

Market opinion seems to agree with you lucky john, speculators are moving in.

Consumer price index came in lower, so it looks like there will be no interest rate hike this year. The markets will count this as one less uncertainty. What effect it will have at the moment I'm not so sure.

Logically speaking companies exporting to the U.S should have good final year profits, with sterling falling dramatically against the dollar in the last few months. Companies exporting to Europe (UK biggest export market)have seen sterling rise against the Euro, but will cheaper oil offset this for some companies when it comes to years earning.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Week 3 levels

R3 7081
R2 6786
R1 6686
P 6491
S1 6391
S2 6196
S3 5901

Month 1 levels
R3 7738
R2 7099
R1 6796
P 6460
S1 6157
S2 5821
S3 5182

4 Week high 6658
4 Week low 6296

9.30 Wednesday bank of England minutes, average earnings.
1.30 Thursday ECB statement.
9.30 Friday retail sales

lucky john

For ever odd wrote: »

9.30 Wednesday bank of England minutes, average earnings.
1.30 Thursday ECB statement.
9.30 Friday retail sales

Sunday. Greek elections. The story is going to be all about default, contagion, bankruptcy and the end of the euro. Bit of a bumpy week on the way. ( the euro will survive and Greece will remain imo )

Bateman

Colm McCarthy made the point on Prime Time last night that Syriza aren’t by any means the looney left, and have a number of “serious people” that are former members of PASOK. If that is true and they win the election amid northern Europe being much more afraid of them than they need be, it may be that an “unfavourable” result in the Greek elections will barely register on the markets. The EUR will remain, the Greeks will remain, the can will be kicked another time, and we soldier on…

lucky john

Bateman wrote: »

Colm McCarthy made the point on Prime Time last night that Syriza aren’t by any means the looney left, and have a number of “serious people” that are former members of PASOK. If that is true and they win the election amid northern Europe being much more afraid of them than they need be, it may be that an “unfavourable” result in the Greek elections will barely register on the markets. The EUR will remain, the Greeks will remain, the can will be kicked another time, and we soldier on…

I believe the same. The media have done a good job of painting syriza as mad and bad. They are not and have no interest in leaving the euro. All they want is the eu boot lifted off them for a while to let them breath and recover. Ireland could do well to watch the negotiations that will follow Sundays election. I think it's possible some good come from it for all of Europe.

world_weary

Bateman wrote: »

Colm McCarthy made the point on Prime Time last night that Syriza aren’t by any means the looney left, and have a number of “serious people” that are former members of PASOK. If that is true and they win the election amid northern Europe being much more afraid of them than they need be, it may be that an “unfavourable” result in the Greek elections will barely register on the markets. The EUR will remain, the Greeks will remain, the can will be kicked another time, and we soldier on…

markets will react even its only for a very short time , the big guys use events like this election to short the market

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Week 4 levels

R3 7335
R2 7034
R1 6920
P 6733
S1 6619
S2 6432
S3 6131

Month 1 levels
R3 7738
R2 7099
R1 6796
P 6460
S1 6157
S2 5821
S3 5182

4 Week high 6848
4 Week low 6296

Tuesday 9.30 mortgage approvals
Tuesday 9.30 GDP
Thursday 11.00 distributive trades
Friday 12.05 am consumer confidence

Alot of data/news this week outside of UK, ECB monthly report, Fed policy statement, US GDP among others to keep an eye on.
Syriza might get an overall majority which the markets were not expecting, its going to be a mad week ahead.

Edit. Syriza fell just short with 149 seats, needing 151 for overall majority. Coalition formed this morning with 162 seats. Markets went down last night and rebounded this morning.

For ever odd

ftse100 wrote: »

Hey For Ever Odd, Could you explain the above Figures to me as I'm very new to the technical side of the market and would love to learn more

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/forex/forex-pivot-points.asp

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

With record money being pulled out of hedge funds, possible Greek default, low oil prices, and Ukraine/Russia still in the mix, I find it hard to make a case to buy the FTSE at the moment.

Well I called that one wrong!
The FTSE is up 3% for January, the issues above are still valid so what was the reasons for the rise?

How do you guys think the FTSE will perform in February?

lucky john

For ever odd wrote: »

Well I called that one wrong!
The FTSE is up 3% for January, the issues above are still valid so what was the reasons for the rise?

How do you guys think the FTSE will perform in February?

EU QE ? Equities are by far the biggest benefices of qe. Chances are they will continue to be now in Europe and probably the UK. Bearing in mind ireland borrowed 6 month money at 0% this week there isn't alot of competition for any investors looking for yeild.

For ever odd

The FTSE hit all time highs this week as with indices in Europe and USA. With all the money that has been printed over the last few years and still to printed, are these levels the new norm?

For ever odd

Ascending triangle formed on the daily chart capped at 6960 with 6916 being today's bottom, expecting a breakout in the next few days

FURET

For ever odd wrote: »

The FTSE hit all time highs this week as with indices in Europe and USA. With all the money that has been printed over the last few years and still to printed, are these levels the new norm?

It is perfectly normal for markets to hit new highs every so often. Nothing strange about it at all. Your earlier post listing all of the political and economic problems as reasons why it might be a bad time to invest is a classic. Those who invest when the majority are fearful always make the most return. My European ETF is up approx 14% YTD.

For ever odd

I love fear and actively seek it out, after all scared money is fast money. I don't invest I trade and at the time was short the FTSE at 6630( which I posted on another thread)for 300 pionts and got another 300 points on when it went through that level. If you check my posts you will know what way I traded gold and the dow.

14% of what amount?

FURET

For ever odd wrote: »

14% of what amount?

I have a healthy six-figure sum invested in a low-cost ETF that tracks the FTSE Developed Europe index (approx 520 large businesses). I also hold an S&P 500 ETF and two bond ETFs.

For ever odd

That's great! I love hearing people making money.

FURET

For ever odd wrote: »

That's great! I love hearing people making money.

Good luck to yourself as well :-)

arrowloopboy

FURET wrote: »

I have a healthy six-figure sum invested in a low-cost ETF that tracks the FTSE Developed Europe index (approx 520 large businesses). I also hold an S&P 500 ETF and two bond ETFs.

Are they Vanguard ?

ftse100

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Are they Vanguard ?

I was looking at some Vanguard ETFs today. Still debating on what ETF to purchase at the moment. Hoping QE has a good impact on European Equities. Massive amount of inflows into European funds last week.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Ascending triangle formed on the daily chart capped at 6960 with 6916 being today's bottom, expecting a breakout in the next few days

Broke to the downside today, 7 trading days it tried to and failed to close above 6960. Divergence on the rsi macd and stoch on the daily chart(and on a few other indices).

FURET

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Are they Vanguard ?

Yes I use Vanguard (I buy VEUR and VUSD). They pay dividends so if I were resident in Ireland I would probably use an iShares accumulating equivalent to mitigate tax liability.

For ever odd

Trying to break the 7000 barrier now

For ever odd

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/78982/ftse-100-has-underperformed-for-over-a-decade-78982.html

Anyone have any ideas on which way the ftse is going to go?