2015 Predictions

Preset No.3

Now that we have gotten over the whole Christmas thing, attention now turns to the New Year and indeed going forward with 2015. So predictions, what are yours? Not totally outlandish predictions, but something that you could actully see.

Reduction in services by EK/EY
Announcement of another 1-2 routes by EI to USA
Another American carrier launch flights to DUB
Direct routes to Asia
Expansion of services by EIR
The WX brand will disappear
EI to join some form of alliance

Khuitlio

I agree that EIR is likely to continue to announce more routes.

I would love to see EI expand their network to include Halifax, a destination in Florida, Las Vegas and/or Texas, however I'm not sure how likely this will be.

I think we may finally get an Asian route this year also.

I think we could see some Ryanair expansion to Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Athens, St. Petersburg.

mayotom

Preset No.3 wrote: »

Now that we have gotten over the whole Christmas thing, attention now turns to the New Year and indeed going forward with 2015. So predictions, what are yours? Not totally outlandish predictions, but something that you could actully see.

Reduction in services by EK/EY
I would go with an increase actually, A330´s to be phased out on the routes and replaced completely with B777/787
Announcement of another 1-2 routes by EI to USA
They don´t have the aircraft to do that, but possibly Swap an existing route for a new Canadian Route
Another American carrier launch flights to DUB
Apart from what has already been anounced, there simply is not enough of a market for the US, Their economy will soon take a major hit and route reductions will follow
Direct routes to Asia
Most definately, This is the one of the growth areas, expect significant interest here
Expansion of services by EIR
As new aircraft are delivered and transfered from Shannon This may happen, but they could also be dispatched on Flybe Routes
The WX brand will disappear
This probably will happen but not for a few years
EI to join some form of alliance
Most likely to become part of IAG and hence "Oneworld"

Given that everything aviation based in Ireland is not just Dublin

*Knock, Cork & Kerry to see major reduction in Routes
*Shannon to see increase of up to routes mainly from Ryanair due to minimal Airport fees
*Ryanair to order 200 more aircraft for post 2020 delivery for expansion in to Russia, the Caucasus, Levante and North Africa
*Ryanair to take over Cyprus Airlines and begin a major expansion to the east, possibly with a new brand

Preset No.3

But Dublin is where its happening!!!! :P

man98

I'd say
-WestJet will announce an expansion if services for 2016,
-WOW air will up theirs too 4/5 weekly,
-we'll see an Aer Lingus A320NEO order,
-CityJet CS100 order,
-perhaps an expansion for Waterford (not sure where)
-and a JetBlue A321NEO-LR order (and perhaps Cork - New York).
-Wouldn't be overly surprised if Shannon/ Knock - Amsterdam flights were announced with Ryanair, probably Dublin too.
-Helsinki flights might be increased.
-CityJet may increase their presence in Ireland,
-maybe there'll be a Belfast TATL service, more likely if APD is reduced or abolished.

Jack1985

man98 wrote: »

I'd say WestJet will announce an expansion if services for 2016, WOW air will up theirs too 4/5 weekly, we'll see an Aer Lingus A320NEO order, CityJet CS100 order, perhaps an expansion for Waterford (not sure where) and a JetBlue A321NEO-LR order (and perhaps Cork - New York). Wouldn't be overly surprised if Shannon/ Knock - Amsterdam flights were announced with Ryanair, probably Dublin too. Helsinki flights might be increased. CityJet may increase their presence in Ireland, maybe there'll be a Belfast TATL service, more likely if APD is reduced or abolished.

Is this just real life or is it fantasy?

smurfjed

Direct routes to Asia

The ME carriers offer a great hub and spoke network for just about everywhere east and south of the red sea. Which Asian airline do you think would be able to compete against them?

mayotom

Jack1985 wrote: »

Is this just real life or is it fantasy?

Absolutly, Westjet hasn´t exactly been a roaring success, 737´s were never built for TA, A cityjet order for CS100 would mean delivery in 2019 at the earliest, making the RJ´s more than 20 years old, so an increase in service in Ireland is a long way off unless its using VLM or Stobart.
Cork to JFK, no hope, to easy to access Shannon with its low operating costs for airlines,.
Waterford does not have a market for commercial operations, it will only have a future for GA and SAR unfortunately.
Ryanair Launched Amsterdam for its business travellers with higher than normal fares, I cant see them getting many of these passengers in the west of Ireland.
JetBlue already have an order for 60 A320/1neo, not really going to be coming to an airport near you

L1011

mayotom wrote: »

Absolutly, Westjet hasn´t exactly been a roaring success, 737´s were never built for TA, A cityjet order for CS100 would mean delivery in 2019 at the earliest, making the RJ´s more than 20 years old, so an increase in service in Ireland is a long way off unless its using VLM or Stobart.
Cork to JFK, no hope, to easy to access Shannon with its low operating costs for airlines,.
Waterford does not have a market for commercial operations, it will only have a future for GA and SAR unfortunately.
Ryanair Launched Amsterdam for its business travellers with higher than normal fares, I cant see them getting many of these passengers in the west of Ireland.
JetBlue already have an order for 60 A320/1neo, not really going to be coming to an airport near you

Westjet came back for a second year (with an increased season, from memory); JetBlue have previously mentioned JFK/BOS-Cork as a potential although I too think that the pre-clearance at SNN would ensure this doesn't happen.

In better economic times Waterford had flights and there were AMS flights to regions - if the economy keeps on track neither are entirely out of the equation but I'd go for 2016+ for either.

Cityjet are unlikely to get first-gen EJets with the E2 imminent and they likely don't want a "small" RJ (CRJ is the only realistic choice as the ERJs are uneconomic) so I could see them holding out for the E2, CS100 or even doing what their former subsidary VLM has just done and go for the PIP'ed SSJ.

mayotom

smurfjed wrote: »

The ME carriers offer a great hub and spoke network for just about everywhere east and south of the red sea. Which Asian airline do you think would be able to compete against them?

They have proven that there is a large market to the east, but clearly not enough for an A-B service, so most likely another Carrier with the same Principle, like Qatar or Air China

highlydebased

mayotom wrote: »

Ryanair Launched Amsterdam for its business travellers with higher than normal fares, I cant see them getting many of these passengers in the west of Ireland.
JetBlue already have an order for 60 A320/1neo, not really going to be coming to an airport near you

They have not launched Amsterdam at all yet but said they would fly to main airports a lá Amsterdam and have higher than usual fares to make up for it. I could certainly see them flying SNN-AMS no doubt targeting current ORK-AMS pax.

man98

I'll make it clear, my predictions were based on announcements during 2015. WestJet based on the 6 extra weeks of services for 2015. WOW based on flights in peak seasons already being sold out, JetBlue have stated an interest in the Cork route, among others, so I wouldn't be surprised if, provided the LR is ordered, the route was announced. I've heard plenty about Waterford services, so watch that space. Ryanair is well known to be moving into Amsterdam anyway, and Aer Lingus have 348 seats a day on Cork - Amsterdam. Given that FR play ORK, SNN and NOC against each other, one of them will be getting a service to AMS.

Cityjet to order 2 SSJ100s.

Aer Lingus to announce they are sticking with 9 A350s.

Qatar Airways to announce Doha.

2nd half Aer Lingus to announce 1-2 new US routes.

Ryanair to increase Dublin routes by 10%.

Etihad to reduce to A330s on both flights.

Cork to get their finger out and put in major fee reductions to save the airport.

smurfjed

Etihad to reduce to A330s on both flights.

May I ask why? Whenever i have looked, their fares are always cheaper than EK.

Chris_5339762

Reductions at Cork, Kerry and Knock. Especially Cork.

New TATL routes from Aer Lingus ex Dublin.

More new Ryanair announcements [I'm hoping Nuremburg, that would be great]

Possibly a Doha service, and an expansion in Dubai and maybe Abu Dhabi.

Reduction in London City flights, with one of the three operators pulling out (probably Flybe).

smurfjed

smurfjed wrote: »

May I ask why? Whenever i have looked, their fares are always cheaper than EK.

Just a gut feeling, A330 more often than not from what I can see on the AM run and haven't increased capacity or suggested an increase in capacity on the evening run. If/when QTR come in it will squeeze them more than UAE.

kub

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Reductions at Cork, Kerry and Knock. Especially Cork.

New TATL routes from Aer Lingus ex Dublin.

More new Ryanair announcements [I'm hoping Nuremburg, that would be great]

Possibly a Doha service, and an expansion in Dubai and maybe Abu Dhabi.

Reduction in London City flights, with one of the three operators pulling out (probably Flybe).

They might as well close Cork altogether, just have a Citylink bus terminus there to move passengers to Dublin Airport.

murphaph

Airport closures are a side effect of the vastly improved road network that we could say are to be expected.

As the M18 is completed and the M17 bypasses and eventually the M20 is completed (this road should have had higher priority all along to be honest, the N20 is diabolical) then either Cork or Shannon or Knock could be expected to close to commercial aviation.

All 3 will likely fight it out however and nothing much will become of any of them and people will just go to Dublin instead which isn't s huge distance from any of them really.

Preset No.3

Deleted User wrote: »

Just a gut feeling, A330 more often than not from what I can see on the AM run and haven't increased capacity or suggested an increase in capacity on the evening run. If/when QTR come in it will squeeze them more than UAE.

I thought the EK/EY flights were overdone. That's a lot of seats every week and as the economy improves less are down under bound. Although, what is cargo like on that route?

man98

The Middle Eastern routes make their money off cargo I thought. Load factors tend to be quite low, I'm sure a lot of the money comes from onward connections, which is why I think AUB and DXB are safe.

JCX BXC

*If an Airport is to be closed, it will be Knock. Shannon and cork wont be allowed to close.
*Snn/Ork-Ams will be announced with Ryanair.
*Either the closure of Waterford or new routes to Waterford will be announced.
*More speculation on a Cork T/A service but nothing will materialise.
*Aer Lingus will be bought by IAG.
*Dublin will get massive expansion.
*Shannon will see further expansion, with some or all of these: Ryanair, Turkish Airlines or a T/A airline
*Cork will either stop losing routes, or have more uproar about its loss of routes.
*Kerry will have a bad year.
*Belfast will get t/a expansion.
*Dublin will get a route to asia or further expansion with EX/EY
*Expect Atlanta to lose its status as the biggest Airport in the world (in terms of pax) within the next few years.


Thats what I think will happen. I will probably be wrong in one or more of these areas.

Jack1985

mayotom wrote: »

Absolutly, Westjet hasn´t exactly been a roaring success, 737´s were never built for TA, A cityjet order for CS100 would mean delivery in 2019 at the earliest, making the RJ´s more than 20 years old, so an increase in service in Ireland is a long way off unless its using VLM or Stobart.
Cork to JFK, no hope, to easy to access Shannon with its low operating costs for airlines,.
Waterford does not have a market for commercial operations, it will only have a future for GA and SAR unfortunately.
Ryanair Launched Amsterdam for its business travellers with higher than normal fares, I cant see them getting many of these passengers in the west of Ireland.
JetBlue already have an order for 60 A320/1neo, not really going to be coming to an airport near you

Agree with everything! Bar FR at AMS. Too much at stake, basically the whole Transavia operation and me thinks the Dutch authorities won't be saying goodbye anytime soon.

JCX BXC

Jack1985 wrote: »

Agree with everything! Bar FR at AMS. Too much at stake, basically the whole Transavia operation and me thinks the Dutch authorities won't be saying goodbye anytime soon.

Considering Easyjey are already at AMS, I cannot see the Dutch authorities denying Ryanair.

mayotom

Carnacalla wrote: »

*If an Airport is to be closed, it will be Knock. Shannon and cork wont be allowed to close.
*Snn/Ork-Ams will be announced with Ryanair.
*Either the closure of Waterford or new routes to Waterford will be announced.
*More speculation on a Cork T/A service but nothing will materialise.
*Aer Lingus will be bought by IAG.
*Dublin will get massive expansion.
*Shannon will see further expansion, with some or all of these: Ryanair, Turkish Airlines or a T/A airline
*Cork will either stop losing routes, or have more uproar about its loss of routes.
*Kerry will have a bad year.
*Belfast will get t/a expansion.
*Dublin will get a route to asia or further expansion with EX/EY
*Expect Atlanta to lose its status as the biggest Airport in the world (in terms of pax) within the next few years.


Thats what I think will happen. I will probably be wrong in one or more of these areas.

Probably wrong in most of those areas as usual.

Cork/Shannon/Knock will not see closure in 2015, to think otherwise is just deluded. Possibly in the near future Waterford may go followed by Kerry within five years, Then Due to Road transport improvements Cork will slowly decline over the next decade, Cork- Shannon by road will reduce to a little more than an hour and with Shannon´s extra income streams they will Grow. Knock is simply too far from Cork to have any influence on this, however they will survive, although with little growth

Dublin will probably get a long-haul route to the east, yes for capacity increase on the UAE carriers, As for "EX" No idea what airline that is????

Belfast is well overdue some TA expansion, they have the market for it.

Atlanta is still quiet a few years of been passed out by the Chinese

JCX BXC

mayotom wrote: »

Probably wrong in most of those areas as usual.

Cork/Shannon/Knock will not see closure in 2015, to think otherwise is just deluded. Possibly in the near future Waterford may go followed by Kerry within five years, Then Due to Road transport improvements Cork will slowly decline over the next decade, Cork- Shannon by road will reduce to a little more than an hour and with Shannon´s extra income streams they will Grow. Knock is simply too far from Cork to have any influence on this, however they will survive, although with little growth

Dublin will probably get a long-haul route to the east, yes for capacity increase on the UAE carriers, As for "EX" No idea what airline that is????

Belfast is well overdue some TA expansion, they have the market for it.

Atlanta is still quiet a few years of been passed out by the Chinese

No airport will be closed in the next 3 years at least, (except possibly Waterford).

Cork and Knock do not impact each other to that much of an extent. I never disagreed with that.

I accidentally typed EX instead of EK, I got mixed up with my airline codes.

Considering Atlanta was 11millions passengers ahead of Beijing last year, it will take around 5 years or maybe more for another airport takes the top space, but it's not far away. The american flight market is not growing anywhere near the speed of the Chinese or Arabian markets.

(As usual? So where am I usually wrong?)

braddun

there will me more airline buyouts


less flights on most routes


orderbooks of planes are full

mayotom

Carnacalla wrote: »

Considering Atlanta was 11millions passengers ahead of Beijing last year, it will take around 5 years or maybe more for another airport takes the top space, but it's not far away. The american flight market is not growing anywhere near the speed of the Chinese or Arabian markets.

(As usual? So where am I usually wrong?)

The Name of the Thread is "2015 Predictions"

Re Atlanta, yes its inevitable, I´m sure Beijing will take top spot by 2020 with a combination of Atlanta loosing passenger numbers and Beijing gaining.
I would also see major changes in the Top 10 been dominated by Aisian Airports but this will be a 5-10 year process, The US is going to see a major slowdown. The Dollar is in Trouble, Debt is at an all time high, Defence Spending is through the roof, Spending at home is minimal, The people will get tired of it, It may all come crashing down.

basill

EI will announce A350s and A321neos plus be the launch customer and undertake ETOPS approval with Airbus on the latter.

The 321s will enable a whole host of new routes to the East coast of Canada and the US and increased frequency on the major NY/BOS routes. 757s will be offloaded once the 321s are online.

cgill

In terms of the west, I imagine Sligo and Galway will remain as they are now despite the rumours. Donegal might see a passenger increase because of EIR. Knock have had decline announced this year so apart from lower passenger numbers, I can't see much more decline in 2015. I expect they may have some route announcements nearing the end of 2015 as a replacement for routes lost this year - especially Birmingham.
Shannon will continue to grow at the expense of ORK, KIR and NOC but none of them will close. I hope Waterford get some passenger traffic again as they have a market there. Dublin will expand to new markets and be very successful next year. I dont think Cork will lay down and let Shannon take over, I hope they will have some more route announcements later on in the year, I expect czech airlines will only be the start.

donvito99

EI shorthaul order anyone?

mayotom

donvito99 wrote: »

EI shorthaul order anyone?

basill wrote: »

EI will announce A350s and A321neos plus be the launch customer and undertake ETOPS approval with Airbus on the latter.

The 321s will enable a whole host of new routes to the East coast of Canada and the US and increased frequency on the major NY/BOS routes. 757s will be offloaded once the 321s are online.

Aer Lingus have 9 A350s on order since 2008, Deliveries Slated for 2018.
Qatar as Launch customer of the type has just taken deliver in the past week of the first aircraft.
A321neo already has almost 600 orders so Aer Lingus as Launch customer simply wont happen, the neo is the next logical order for Aer Lingus, but with the current order book been quiet full and Aer Lingus commitment to A350 deliveries in 2018 will mean financially they will not be in a position to take delivery of new Shorthaul aircraft for at least 10 years

One possibility is that Aer Lingus may try to Swap A350 orders to A330neo or A321neo, but most likely to the 330

smurfjed

may try to Swap A350 orders to A330neo

What advantage do you see in this?

mayotom

smurfjed wrote: »

What advantage do you see in this?

Lower Price
Lower Capacity
More efficient
Easier to bring crews up to Speed on a 330 upgrade

Aer Lingus have already shown interest in Smaller Long Haul aircraft by bringing in the 757s

L1011

mayotom wrote: »

Easier to bring crews up to Speed on a 330 upgrade

330neo and 350 are meant to have the same TR, so there'll be the same conversion course regardless.

mayotom wrote: »

A321neo already has almost 600 orders so Aer Lingus as Launch customer simply wont happen

The -LR derivative has no firm orders, and also a later introduction date; EI have history of assisting Airbus in capability proving on TATL (albeit ancient history at this stage). Things can be arranged.

smurfjed

Lower Price
OK A330-900NEO is listed as 20 million less than the A350-900, but this could be even cheaper if Airbus are enthusiastic about the sale

Lower Capacity
Depends on the configuration, but i have used 315/310 seats for the fuel comparison

More efficient
The A350 has a slightly lower fuel cost per seat.

Easier to bring crews up to Speed on a 330 upgrade
Common type rating.

I can see why Airbus might be slow with trying to sell the A330-900 NEO, it appears to be a much cheaper competitor to the A350!

basill

330NEOs are off the table lads according to an internal memo. Lead engineers already down starting to train up on A350 enjoying some fine vino.

Preset No.3

Annnnnnnnnnd back to the predictions, the reason I started this thread in the first place.

JCX BXC

Preset No.3 wrote: »

Annnnnnnnnnd back to the predictions, the reason I started this thread in the first place.

They didn't wonder far off the topic to be fair, they are predicting to what EI may do with their orders in 2015.

I also expect Heathrow to be approved a Third Runway.

Bo91

Etihad and Emirates to go back to a330 , but continue double daily .
Ryanair to open more new routes , Verona ? Which would be nice considering aer lingus only run the route from march to September .
Las Vegas , Houston Miami for translantic routes .
Possibly Qatar to Doha
Aeroflot or s7 to increase the Moscow route .
Would be great to see a caribbean flight.

Preset No.3

Several members here to buy bigger anoraks! :O

Tenger

mayotom wrote: »

Aer Lingus have 9 A350s on order since 2008, Deliveries Slated for 2018.
Qatar as Launch customer of the type has just taken deliver in the past week of the first aircraft.
A321neo already has almost 600 orders so Aer Lingus as Launch customer simply wont happen, the neo is the next logical order for Aer Lingus, but with the current order book been quiet full and Aer Lingus commitment to A350 deliveries in 2018 will mean financially they will not be in a position to take delivery of new Shorthaul aircraft for at least 10 years

One possibility is that Aer Lingus may try to Swap A350 orders to A330neo or A321neo, but most likely to the 330

EI have approx 480million euro in net cash. They are in a good financial positon. They already worked with Airbus on gaining ETOPS cetification for the A330 so could do a deal with them over the A321neo-LR. Remember the EI deferral of the A350 helped Airbus out with more eager customers.

mayotom wrote: »

Lower Price
Lower Capacity
More efficient
Easier to bring crews up to Speed on a 330 upgrade

Aer Lingus have already shown interest in Smaller Long Haul aircraft by bringing in the 757s

Might want to think again.

A330neo will mean not real capcity increase in over 20 years.
A350 will have same rating as A330neo...so no difference in training.
A330neo is not 'more efficient', A350 is more efficient. A330neo is a generational upgrade of the existing very efficient A330 model. A330neo will still need to be superseded 5-10 years later.

As for smaller longhaul...looks at the last results from EI.....they are hinting at A321neo.

EDIT: However EI are hinting that smaller types will be used as route provers (Toronto) or to add additional frequency to an existing route (early EI-103 DUB-JFK this Summer)

mayotom

Tenger wrote: »

As for smaller longhaul...looks at the last results from EI.....they are hinting at A321neo

Exactly, hinting at Smaller aircraft, Routes from Ireland to the US have been dominated by 757´s in recent years, thankfully now Larger aircraft(767) are been used by some of the US carriers, but is there really enough room for all of them to operate with 767/A330/350 size aircraft?

JCX BXC

mayotom wrote: »

Exactly, hinting at Smaller aircraft, Routes from Ireland to the US have been dominated by 757´s in recent years, thankfully now Larger aircraft(767) are been used by some of the US carriers, but is there really enough room for all of them to operate with 767/A330/350 size aircraft?

A 767 will be used by EI next year too!

Tenger

basill wrote: »

330NEOs are off the table lads according to an internal memo. Lead engineers already down starting to train up on A350 enjoying some fine vino.

I think using info from work might be cheating a bit on the predictions front!!

Preset No.3

Oh so EI, AA, US, and UA all got it wrong by using 757's on thinner routes?

JCX BXC

Preset No.3 wrote: »

Oh so EI, AA, US, and UA all got it wrong by using 757's on thinner routes?

And DL, BA (Open skies)

mayotom

Preset No.3 wrote: »

Oh so EI, AA, US, and UA all got it wrong by using 757's on thinner routes?

No Not at all, The point is that, these are exactly that, Thin Routes. Therefore the Smaller capacity aircraft are better suited to Aer Lingus in the Future for US routes

bigar

highlydebased wrote: »

They have not launched Amsterdam at all yet but said they would fly to main airports a lá Amsterdam and have higher than usual fares to make up for it. I could certainly see them flying SNN-AMS no doubt targeting current ORK-AMS pax.

Not sure there would be an increase in fares. In 2014 Ryanair has moved from local airports to major airports in some European countries without noticable price increases. For Instance, they started flying to Brussels International in addition to the regional Charleroi. I often fly to Belgium and Eindhoven (close to Belgium) and could not see any increase in fares. If anything, they have gone down.

Tenger

mayotom wrote: »

No Not at all, The point is that, these are exactly that, Thin Routes. Therefore the Smaller capacity aircraft are better suited to Aer Lingus in the Future for US routes

Well EI have already indicated that their planned fleet for longhaul in 2020 is 9 A350 and 6 narrowbody

mayotom

Tenger wrote: »

Well EI have already indicated that their planned fleet for longhaul in 2020 is 9 A350 and 6 narrowbody

Ah I didn´t realise that, can they realistically have 6 narrowbody Long haul in the fleet by 2020 or would it be Leased like the current arrangement with ACL

Tenger

mayotom wrote: »

Ah I didn´t realise that, can they realistically have 6 narrowbody Long haul in the fleet by 2020 or would it be Leased like the current arrangement with ACL

Wasn't indicated. I believe that the ACL agreement is for 3 years. So EI need a solution in place for 2017-2018. There are very few suitable B752's out there at the moment, and they are getting older all the time. (I was wrong, its 5 narroebody planned for 2020)
Cant find the link, it was in the Sept analyst's presentation.Plan indicated is A330/A350/B757 or similar- 2015 8/0/3, 2016 8/0/4, 2017 8/0/4, 2018 6/3/4, 2019 3/6/5, 2020 0/9/5.