General Election 2016

Fr Tod Umptious

Looks like the date has been set (providing nothing happens between now and then)
April 9th 2016, a Saturday

So no quips about not giving the people the opportunity to vote cos they are at college etc.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/1218/667698-election-politics/

Fine Gael TDs have been told the Government intends holding the next general election on Saturday 9 April 2016.

One TD confirmed that the Taoiseach informed the Parliamentary Party of this some time ago.

"He said put that date in your diary," the TD said.

The Government will have to run its full term for the election to be held on that date and would see the Coalition remain in office during the 1916 Centenary celebrations.

The Government has to call an election within 25 days of the fifth anniversary of the first sitting of the 31st Dáil on 9 March 2011.

This excludes St Patrick's Day, bank holidays and Sundays.

Easter Sunday in 2016 will fall on 27 March, the day the Government intends to commemorate the 1916 Rising.

skooterblue2

Cant believe the Government will last that length

ejabrod

I'd be shocked if they were still in power by then....but then again, this is Ireland - the land of apathy

marienbad

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Cant believe the Government will last that length

Why wouldn't they ? What is the alternative ?

Phoebas

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Cant believe the Government will last that length

Can't see why they'd want to go earlier, and they do still have a large majority, so the ball is in their court.

seamus

Should make the Easter rising celebrations interesting. Everyone will be trying to jostle for position in the "Ireland's got nationalism" competition.

Obviously FG want to be the party to lead the celebrations, but I wonder if SF will capitalise best on the nationalist sentiment that will be left over.

skooterblue2

marienbad wrote: »

Why wouldn't they ? What is the alternative ?

Good Question. Anything can happen. I believe there is a Scandal on the way from the past , the last government. Something to do with a previous minister not in Dublin. I believe the story will come to the fore in the next month I am told.

This will discredit an alternative governmet to the current one. It is designed to stop anyone forming a government with Sinn Fein. That would br the right time to call an election. Six weeks from then.

I didnt say I wanted it or liked it ....its just the way it could happen.

Lets remember the old addage, A week is long time in politics

Godge

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Cant believe the Government will last that length

There is no reason for them not to stay together, the polls won't get any worse, they have every chance of getting better as the economy picks up next year.

Blue Magic

One thing that is certain is we'll have a hung dail after next year's election. Furthermore, by current look of polls, FF & FG - the only natural looking coalition - will most likely not have the numbers...

I can see 1 of three governments:

1) FF/FG/Independents (I.e. likes of Shane Ross, Mattie McGrath, Stephen Donnelly,etc. - Not Mick Wallace!!!);

2) SF/Labour/ULA + independents (if needed) Couldn't see this last half a term though so least likely;

3) FF/SF/Independents. Slightly signs from time to time of solidarity in opposition, e.g. with whole Sean Barrett debacle... Would be a huge for SF into future though considering their core electorate so can't see them being inclined to opt for it...

To me, the next dail won't last full term barring a substantial growth of both FF & FG support in polls...

* As a footnote, I haven't really considered the Greens or Lucinda's party (whatever they'll be called). Between them they may collect 3/4/5 seats...

Tedddy

Isn't it more likely the election will be held on the Friday?

I wonder how many "peaceful" protesters will step up to the plate and let the people decide who is right or wrong?

skooterblue2

Tedddy wrote: »

Isn't it more likely the election will be held on the Friday?

Not necessarily. In the past the Government wanted a conservative vote they wanted to exclude the students at college and the country workers in the cities they held it Mid Week.

I am imagining they will want an older Anti Sinn Fein vote so it maybe held mid week. To be honest looking at my elderly parents at home, if it was held on Christmas day in the middle of a Blizzard they would want to get out and vote to get any other party in but the current ones.

lanos

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647


Paddy Power reckons on a FG/FF coalition
and so do i

skooterblue2

lanos wrote: »

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647


Paddy Power reckons on a FG/FF coalition
and so do i

I remember Ivan Yates (Bookie/Fmr Minister of Agriculture/Junior Minister of Finance) on Late night TV years ago. Bertie was facing a minority government... Ivan Yates siad any future Government would be a coalition of Labour with either FF/FG. That was fine and common sense and we all rushed to the bookies. Bertie was asked for too much by labour. So He went with the cheaper shopping list of Green Party with all the independents except one or two.

I would be looking at Fianna Fail with many many independets but not lead by Michael Martin. I see the FG vote being taken by FF and independents and the Labour Vote being taken by SF and independents... People are so disillusioned with Politics that the whole system will be completely unpredictable.

Fr Tod Umptious

skooterblue2 wrote: »

I remember Ivan Yates (Bookie/Fmr Minister of Agriculture/Junior Minister of Finance) on Late night TV years ago. Bertie was facing a minority government... Ivan Yates siad any future Government would be a coalition of Labour with either FF/FG. That was fine and common sense and we all rushed to the bookies. Bertie was asked for too much by labour. So He went with the cheaper shopping list of Green Party with all the independents except one or two.

I would be looking at Fianna Fail with many many independets but not lead by Michael Martin. I see the FG vote being taken by FF and independents and the Labour Vote being taken by SF and independents... People are so disillusioned with Politics that the whole system will be completely unpredictable.

Yes that was in 07.
In the run up to the election I remember hearing Yeats on a radio show that one of the shortest priced bets about the election was that Pat Rabbite (then Lab. leader) would be Tainaiste (sp).

The assumption being that either FF or FG would look to Labour to form a govt.

Of course Bertie did not and went with the Greens/PDs etc.

expectationlost

Deleted User wrote: »

I wonder how many "peaceful" protesters will step up to the plate and let the people decide who is right or wrong?

theres no requirement on protestors to stand for election to prove themselves nor connection between votes and being right

Godge

expectationlost wrote: »

theres no requirement on protestors to stand for election to prove themselves nor connection between votes and being right

The voters are always right. This is a democracy.

In this country, the only group who have consistently maintained an opposing view that the voters are wrong is SF/IRA from the last 1960s onwards.

skooterblue2

At the risk of being told I am dragging the thread off course.
Every Main political party (FG,FF,Lab, SF) even Sinn Fein from the leadership support implementing a watercharge.
The Grassroots are telling the leaderships that it is not acceptable. It is easy for Sinn Fein to say they have watercharges up north. Part of the last deal done by Ian Paisley was that they had unconditiona free water. Down here they say it will cost too much to revert it back to the Corporation/County Councils. I am guessing at the next election we are going to see Independents where we never saw them before.

I wouldnt say the voters are always right but I would say they have the right to choose who represent them. Remember a lot of negative opinions on the plastic bag sales tax and on the smoking Ban?

I am politically ambivalent but I can see across the spectrum these water charges wont fly

marienbad

skooterblue2 wrote: »

At the risk of being told I am dragging the thread off course.
Every Main political party (FG,FF,Lab, SF) even Sinn Fein from the leadership support implementing a watercharge.
The Grassroots are telling the leaderships that it is not acceptable. It is easy for Sinn Fein to say they have watercharges up north. Part of the last deal done by Ian Paisley was that they had unconditiona free water. Down here they say it will cost too much to revert it back to the Corporation/County Councils. I am guessing at the next election we are going to see Independents where we never saw them before.

I wouldnt say the voters are always right but I would say they have the right to choose who represent them. Remember a lot of negative opinions on the plastic bag sales tax and on the smoking Ban?

I am politically ambivalent but I can see across the spectrum these water charges wont fly

They have already been accepted just like the property tax and the smoking ban. Remember the smoking ban ? We were told there would be massive disobedience making it impossible to enforce , not a bit of it .

skooterblue2

marienbad wrote: »

They have already been accepted just like the property tax and the smoking ban. Remember the smoking ban ? We were told there would be massive disobedience making it impossible to enforce , not a bit of it .

not the same thing at all. The property tax is a tax deducted at source. There is no choice. The Smoking ban was not a tax or Utility and we are all agreed it was done for our health. This is a utility bill, which we are being forced to pay. The Water charges are going to be sold to private interests.

marienbad

skooterblue2 wrote: »

not the same thing at all. The property tax is a tax deducted at source. There is no choice. The Smoking ban was not a tax or Utility and we are all agreed it was done for our health. This is a utility bill, which we are being forced to pay. The Water charges are going to be sold to private interests.

I understand the differences ,thank you , the point is that each of those measures we were told would never be accepted and they were.

What evidence is there that it will be sold to private interests ?

Godge

skooterblue2 wrote: »

not the same thing at all. The property tax is a tax deducted at source. There is no choice. The Smoking ban was not a tax or Utility and we are all agreed it was done for our health. This is a utility bill, which we are being forced to pay. The Water charges are going to be sold to private interests.

The bit in bold is made up

skooterblue2

Godge wrote: »

The bit in bold is made up

Tell me why it couldnt happen? Those boys at Nestle are eyeing it up. go check their global record on it

marienbad

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Tell me why it couldnt happen? Those boys at Nestle are eyeing it up. go check their global record on it

How can you disprove a future event ?

skooterblue2

marienbad wrote: »

How can you disprove a future event ?

I cant but why take a risk. If this Government sold the rights to wind, sea weed and gold, what makes you think they wouldnt sell Irish water? Hey we are using Irish water to pay the Anglo Irish Bond holders

marienbad

skooterblue2 wrote: »

I cant but why take a risk. If this Government sold the rights to wind, sea weed and gold, what makes you think they wouldnt sell Irish water? Hey we are using Irish water to pay the Anglo Irish Bond holders

So you have no evidence then ? Thought so .

No we are using the revenue to pay social welfare and public sector wages

skooterblue2

marienbad wrote: »

So you have no evidence then ? Thought so .

No we are using the revenue to pay social welfare and public sector wages

No we are not ... other way around the tax payer is subsiddising Irish water it was on prime time the other night

marienbad

skooterblue2 wrote: »

No we are not ... other way around the tax payer is subsiddising Irish water it was on prime time the other night

Of course ,that is until they get a revenue stream, everyone understands this even if they don't agree with it, then it will become one less burden on the state to enable us to continue our high PS wages and SW bill.

And thus reduce the billions we are still borrowing to make ends meet.

skooterblue2

marienbad wrote: »

Of course ,that is until they get a revenue stream, everyone understands this even if they don't agree with it, then it will become one less burden on the state to enable us to continue our high PS wages and SW bill.

And thus reduce the billions we are still borrowing to make ends meet.

Gimme a call when that revenue stream comes in. My elderly parents never missed a mortgage payment in their lives, never dodged tax or complained how taxpayers money was wasted, never blinked an eye at the property tax or the TV lisences..... but they have said enough is enough. This is a sign of the times. how about we put a 2% on corporate tax and tax the upper 3%.

marienbad

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Gimme a call when that revenue stream comes in. My elderly parents never missed a mortgage payment in their lives, never dodged tax or complained how taxpayers money was wasted, never blinked an eye at the property tax or the TV lisences..... but they have said enough is enough. This is a sign of the times. how about we put a 2% on corporate tax and tax the upper 3%.

We are already paying for water , this just means that the more you use the more you pay, just like electricity, internet, gas etc .

I paid all those charges also and I have no problem with it, we need more taxes like this , that is the best way to the upper 3% and also broaden the tax base .

By the way the upper 3 % already pay the lions share of tax

skooterblue2

marienbad wrote: »

We are already paying for water

Exactly so if you are paying for it 4 times over (Corporation tax, motor tax, USC, VAT hike) why would you pay for it the 5th time?

marienbad

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Exactly so if you are paying for it 4 times over (Corporation tax, motor tax, USC, VAT hike) why would you pay for it the 5th time?

Just because it comes from multiple sources does not mean we are paying for it 4 times over. It costs what is costs. This way hopefully it will become self sufficient and disappear from general taxation .

skooterblue2

marienbad wrote: »

Just because it comes from multiple sources does not mean we are paying for it 4 times over. It costs what is costs. This way hopefully it will become self sufficient and disappear from general taxation .

like the charge they put on minerals to fund the Boer War? My great grand father never got insulted by a Boer, or met a Boer for that matter. Then why am I still paying a tax to pay for a war that had nothing to do with the Irish state. Taxes go on but dont come off. We are getting fleeced and that time is being called by the voters. First thing .... the Irish taxpayers will not pay the Water Rates, then Irish Water will not meet the EU stress tests. It will be shut down within the life time of the Government.

sheesh

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Good Question. Anything can happen. I believe there is a Scandal on the way from the past , the last government. Something to do with a previous minister not in Dublin. I believe the story will come to the fore in the next month I am told.

This will discredit an alternative governmet to the current one. It is designed to stop anyone forming a government with Sinn Fein. That would br the right time to call an election. Six weeks from then.

I didnt say I wanted it or liked it ....its just the way it could happen.

Lets remember the old addage, A week is long time in politics

did this happen?

skooterblue2

regretfully not, Irish media the best you can buy

marienbad

skooterblue2 wrote: »

like the charge they put on minerals to fund the Boer War? My great grand father never got insulted by a Boer, or met a Boer for that matter. Then why am I still paying a tax to pay for a war that had nothing to do with the Irish state. Taxes go on but dont come off. We are getting fleeced and that time is being called by the voters. First thing .... the Irish taxpayers will not pay the Water Rates, then Irish Water will not meet the EU stress tests. It will be shut down within the life time of the Government.

The Boer war !! I have heard it all now .

The problem is we are not getting fleeced in an overall tax basis compared to other grown up countries . The real issue is that we have too narrow a tax base that is susceptible to massive fluctuation .

So if we are to continue paying those inflated PS wage bills and inflated SW bills, and borrowing is no longer an option, we need to broaden the tax base and water charges and property taxes are the best and fairest way to do so .

Any self-respecting Socialist should be all for them

expectationlost

Godge wrote: »

The voters are always right. This is a democracy.

right about what? whether we should charge for water I don't think voting about it means the right decision has been made.

saying "this is democracy" isn't an arguement.

mrbrianj

its going to be one hard year!

I don't see any reason the Government wont last. Labour are trying to use hard work to create a positive notion, expect lots of gay rights and abortion for the next 6 months. If this fails they may pull the plug, I think its unlikely though.

Fine Gael will try to stay blunder free for the remainder and get some distance for the Cronyism/ Med cards/ Water/ Shatter gate etc. etc.. I think this will work for them. Come election time they are the conservative bet for the middle class voters

Shinners are going to be attacked from all sides, its going to be dirty! But they will emerge, and will look much more presentable thanks to the "Looney Lefties" taking over the extremist mantle.

Fianna Fail, are like a ship becalmed in the doldrums, the pirates may have abandoned ship but the crew still stink of rum. The people that did not vote FF last time around still remember. next, next time around maybe

Left and independents, I think people will get feed up of the more militant water protesters with Sinn Fein picking up the pieces. A few more indos next time but not that many more.

So, you will have FG and SF courting Lab. Its the Joan Show

eire4

Latest poll puts Fine Gael at 27% followed by Sinn Fein on 19% and Fianna Fail on 18% with Labour on 9%.

eire4

marienbad wrote: »

We are already paying for water , this just means that the more you use the more you pay, just like electricity, internet, gas etc .

I paid all those charges also and I have no problem with it, we need more taxes like this , that is the best way to the upper 3% and also broaden the tax base .

By the way the upper 3 % already pay the lions share of tax

The top 3% do indeed pay more income tax. However overall they pay less of a share of their income in tax when both direct and indirect tax is taken into account compared with those on the lower end of the income scale.

marienbad

eire4 wrote: »

The top 3% do indeed pay more income tax. However overall they pay less of a share of their income in tax when both direct and indirect tax is taken into account compared with those on the lower end of the income scale.

Could you expand on that a bit please , the lower income sector will pay no water charges,property tax ,no income tax and have medical cards etc.Effectively paying just vat.

KingBrian2

We pretty much know where all the parties stand. SF is anti water tax, property tax and so on. FG and Labour support Austerity. FF and Independents a whole bunch of them are all for burning the bondholders so it might yet become a hung Dail.

eire4

marienbad wrote: »

Could you expand on that a bit please , the lower income sector will pay no water charges,property tax ,no income tax and have medical cards etc.Effectively paying just vat.

The key is the percentage of their income that they pay in taxes. Because those in the bottom 10% have to spend most of their income they end up paying VAT on most of their income and thus end up paying overall a higher percentage of their income in tax then those in the high wealth bracket.

marienbad

eire4 wrote: »

The key is the percentage of their income that they pay in taxes. Because those in the bottom 10% have to spend most of their income they end up paying VAT on most of their income and thus end up paying overall a higher percentage of their income in tax then those in the high wealth bracket.

Do you have any links for your stats , The zero rate applies to most food and childrens clothes and the lower rate to coal oil gas esb.

eire4

marienbad wrote: »

Do you have any links for your stats , The zero rate applies to most food and childrens clothes and the lower rate to coal oil gas esb.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/poorer-people-in-ireland-pay-out-more-of-their-income-in-tax-1.1910725

marienbad

eire4 wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/poorer-people-in-ireland-pay-out-more-of-their-income-in-tax-1.1910725

OK thanks, very interesting reading .

Godge

eire4 wrote: »

The key is the percentage of their income that they pay in taxes. Because those in the bottom 10% have to spend most of their income they end up paying VAT on most of their income and thus end up paying overall a higher percentage of their income in tax then those in the high wealth bracket.

There is no VAT on essential goods.

http://www.revenue.ie/en/tax/vat/guide/vat-rates.html#section4

"The goods and services which are exempt from VAT are listed in pdfExempted Activities (PDF, 130KB). Exempt goods and services consist principally of financial, medical* and educational activities as well as admissions to, and promotion of, certain live theatrical and musical performances."


"Goods and services which attract the zero rate of VAT are listed in pdfZero Rated Activities (PDF, 191KB) and include exports, intra-Community supplies of goods to VAT-registered persons in other EU Member States, certain food and drink, oral medicine, certain books and booklets, certain animal feeding stuffs, certain fertilisers, seeds and plants used to produce food, clothing and footwear appropriate to children under 11 years of age and supplies to VAT-registered persons authorised by Revenue under the zero-rating scheme for qualifying businesse"


http://www.revenue.ie/en/tax/vat/leaflets/food-and-drink.html

"The Zero rate of VAT applies to the supply of most foodstuffs, such as bread, butter, cheese, cereals, condiments, flour, fruit, herbs, meat, milk, pasta, pastes, sauces, soup, spices, sugar, and vegetables (fresh or frozen). This list is by no means exhaustive."


If you are saying that poorer people buy bigger televisions and have more Sky Sports subscriptions, drink more alcohol and smoke more cigarettes, then it is possible your statement is true. Because if they eat basic foods, clothe their children, buy medicines etc., then they are not paying VAT.

Godge

eire4 wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/poorer-people-in-ireland-pay-out-more-of-their-income-in-tax-1.1910725

That is research carried out by the Nevin Institute. There isn't a serious economist in the country who credits their research.

eire4

marienbad wrote: »

OK thanks, very interesting reading .

Your welcome. I thought it was an interesting read also.

marienbad

eire4 wrote: »

Your welcome. I thought it was an interesting read also.

Now the you mention it ,I think the ESRI did a similar exercise after the last budget and it said the same thing.

Maybe the flat screen tv per room is too much ?:)

Jim2007

Godge wrote: »

That is research carried out by the Nevin Institute. There isn't a serious economist in the country who credits their research.

Well you don't need to be an economist to figure this one out! It is painfully obvious that if you earn half as much as your friend and you both buy the same vat able item, you'll have spent a larger portion of you income on paying down the vat on it - where is the wonder in that?

This is exactly how vat is expected to work and why essentials carry little or no vat. You decide to pay the tax by choosing discretionary items. Now you may make a case for some discretionary items being essential, but that is a different argument.