Is there a danger of a revolution in Ireland?

Hitchens

Could it happen?

There seems to be hardening of peoples attitude towards 'politics as usual' in recent days.

The IW protests seem to be a culmination of the realization that the country is being run for the benefit of an elite.

So where does the revolution clock stand right now - 20 minutes to midnight?

fryup

we're too laid back a race

Kevin McCloud

Your some man for the threads today.

DoYouEvenLift

It's only 20 past 11 though?

Hitchens

Kevin McCloud wrote: »

Your some man for the threads today.

I'm trying to cut down

Streetwalker

We are witnessing the start of a class war.

Insect Overlord

That song "Age of Revolution" by the Duckworth Lewis Method nearly caught us after the popular cricket World Cup a few years back.

harney

I'm putting a sneaky tenner on FF in power within the next 6 years.

aaakev

Jasus I hope so

jungle_hostage

i think eventually when the silent hard working squeezed middle ( who pay for everything ) have had enough of the loony political left or the bleeding heart liberal media

a revolution will happen but it will be a reagan type revolution

im hoping that leo varadkar takes over from enda to bring it about

Hitchens

aaakev wrote: »

Jasus I hope so

would it bring prosperity and happiness?

TiMe2PaRtYYYYY

There will never be a revolution in This Ireland as there are too many protesters with no vision and no decent leaders with vision

harney

jungle_hostage wrote: »

a revolution will happen but it will be a reagan type revolution

im hoping that leo varadkar takes over from enda to bring it about

Ah, to quote that fantastic movie "Never go full retard"

El_Duderino 09

What would we even do if we had a revolution?

Who would organise it?

Its ridiculous and it won't happen.

jungle_hostage

most irish people are an idealogical black hole , we are terminally centrist who love to engage in hand ringing but have little interest in any kind of radical direction , beit it left or right

The Moldy Gowl

It's only 25 to 12 ffs.

Hitchens

TiMe2PaRtYYYYY wrote: »

There will never be a revolution in This Ireland as there are too many protesters with no vision and no decent leaders with vision

a leader with vision might arise though, certainly no leaders with vision in the current regime?

foxy farmer

Any protest is usually hijacked by rent a mob types bent on rioting and destruction. They haven't a clue what people are protesting about. That said those who believe that a change in political party will bring about changes are sadly deluded. It's as bad as believing in religion.

kowloon

harney wrote: »

I'm putting a sneaky tenner on FF in power within the next 6 years.

I've accepted that to such a degree that your speedtest result is the thing that pisses me off most in this thread.

foxy farmer wrote: »

That said those who believe that a change in political party will bring about changes are sadly deluded. It's as bad as believing in religion.

No system will voluntarily reform itself from the inside if it doesn't benefit the players. The Dail has all the power with nothing to offset it.

DeadHand

Hitchens wrote: »

Could it happen?

No. No, it couldn't.

Some morons shaking a car isn't exactly on a par with the storming of the Winter Palace.

The next election will be interesting and will make for novel new bedfellows, but civil unrest will never get beyond frequent street marches.

The popular appetite, unity of purpose or military capability within the anti-establishment movements doesn't exist for the violence necessary to overthrow the democratically elected government.

TiMe2PaRtYYYYY

foxy farmer wrote: »

Any protest is usually hijacked by rent a mob types bent on rioting and destruction. They haven't a clue what people are protesting about. That said those who believe that a change in political party will bring about changes are sadly deluded. It's as bad as believing in religion.

no disrespect op but you should stick to the farming

Dravokivich

Why volute again and again?

the_syco

Hitchens wrote: »

Could it happen?

Cut the dole to 25% of the current amount. No more need for IW, and plenty of money for other things. Also, instant riot.

Hitchens wrote: »

would it bring prosperity and happiness?

Depends who got in, but most likely no. When the smoke cleared, the new government would quickly cop on that more taxes are needed, but the old government will be blamed, and just like in Animal Farm, the new government will be like the old one.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

What would we even do if we had a revolution?

Get rid of the government, scare away all external based companies, and raise the taxes to stupid amounts to try to keep afloat, before bending over for Germany's fifth Reich to pop over.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Who would organise it?

The power hungry sort that wants power at any cost, and f**k everyone else. The sort that make FF look good!

bnt

You could replace the government entirely and it would not change people's financial circumstances. All those "underwater" / "negative equity" mortgages on overpriced badly-built houses aren't going away. Housing would not get any more affordable. To say the government "controls" the economy is like saying that a rat in a maze chooses its own path from A to B. So, want to replace the banks with something more "social"?

thebaz

harney wrote: »

I'm putting a sneaky tenner on FF in power within the next 6 years.

then there should be a revolution - all these austerity measures are a result of the reign of greed from Aherne & Cowen , which caused the IMF to bail us out - the IMF obviously imposed certain , undisclosed restrictions , such as more taxes , more austerity - and labour & Fine Gael are having to govern within these constraints. Irish politics

The_Valeyard

As I said on a previous thread. This country is a tinderbox at the moment waiting to explode.

All sides need to be careful. There is a real sense of mischief in the air.

As for the far left, I think they have misread the situation. There is also a large grouping , anti water charges but very much on the right Wing spectrum.

TiMe2PaRtYYYYY

thebaz wrote: »

then there should be a revolution - all these austerity measures are a result of the reign of greed from Aherne & Cowen , which caused the IMF to bail us out - the IMF obviously imposed certain , undisclosed restrictions , such as more taxes , more austerity - and labour & Fine Gael are having to govern within these constraints. Irish politics

The thing is we are were we are .... WHAT IS THE SOLUTION ??? soz for caps as am not annoyed... but i can see the bigger picture

costadeldole

The water charge protests are just the start of it.
Just like the Civil Rights marches in the North were the start of the Troubles.
The protests are going to escalate until 2016; the centenary of the Easter Rising, which also coincides with the year the general election is called.
What we are seeing now, is the previously apathetic sheep, turn into highly political animals.
They are hungry for change, and it wont come from the ballot boxes; they have learned through solidarity an ounce of resistance is worth a pound of votes.
Fine Gael and Labour are finished now due to the Irish Water debacle, so its likely Varadkar will replace Kenny when he loses the general election and stands down.
I think realistically it will be a FF/Sinn Fein coalition in the next government.

Jake Rugby Walrus666

The students are revolting

the_syco

costadeldole wrote: »

I think realistically it will be a FF/Sinn Fein coalition in the next government.

FF have run a government into the ground, and SF have run a government that is artificially supported by the UK and RoI. It'll be like FG and Labour now; two total opposites in the same government, and nothing gets done.

costadeldole

The protests haven't reached their tipping point yet, and that is what is needed to turn a protest into a revolt or rising.
The day a Garda strikes a protester with a baton, or a protester strikes a minister; that is the tipping point, and the protest quickly escalates to something very different.

omega man

costadeldole wrote: »

The water charge protests are just the start of it.
Just like the Civil Rights marches in the North were the start of the Troubles.
The protests are going to escalate until 2016; the centenary of the Easter Rising, which also coincides with the year the general election is called.
What we are seeing now, is the previously apathetic sheep, turn into highly political animals.
They are hungry for change, and it wont come from the ballot boxes; they have learned through solidarity an ounce of resistance is worth a pound of votes.
Fine Gael and Labour are finished now due to the Irish Water debacle, so its likely Varadkar will replace Kenny when he loses the general election and stands down.
I think realistically it will be a FF/Sinn Fein coalition in the next government.

So basically the "revolution" is just an election with 2 new parties in government facing the exact same issues with the exact same budgetary constraints? You did say it won't come from the ballot box though, I'm confused......

shedweller

costadeldole wrote: »

The protests haven't reached their tipping point yet, and that is what is needed to turn a protest into a revolt or rising.
The day a Garda strikes a protester with a baton, or a protester strikes a minister; that is the tipping point, and the protest quickly escalates to something very different.

Some young wans face met a cast iron bollard at the hands of a few of them and i dont see any revolutions. Maybe they didnt see it happen? The people that is. Too busy with xfactor nonsense or what have you to care.

TiMe2PaRtYYYYY

Jake Rugby Walrus666 wrote: »

The students are revolting

No dis-respect op but the young students today but some are like young calves been let out into an open field ...they will run in all directions ... it comes back to my point ...there is no leadership or vision in this country even with the students...

costadeldole

omega man wrote: »

So basically the "revolution" is just an election with 2 new parties in government facing the exact same issues with the exact same budgetary constraints? You did say it won't come from the ballot box though, I'm confused......

Well there are 2 possible outcomes by 2016;
political change from the general election.
Or a rising when the protests have reached their tipping point.
One cannot underestimate the additional Republican influence around the time of the centenary. They may well get involved with the protests, adding military direction and organisation to the mix.
I expect a surge in support for both FF and Sinn Fein, if only as protest votes against the austerity, cuts, and taxation of the FG/Labour.
People are hungry for change, and they will get it one way or another rising/election. If the election isn't to their satisfaction; then that leaves the other option.

El_Duderino 09

costadeldole wrote: »

The water charge protests are just the start of it.
Just like the Civil Rights marches in the North were the start of the Troubles.
The protests are going to escalate until 2016; the centenary of the Easter Rising, which also coincides with the year the general election is called.
What we are seeing now, is the previously apathetic sheep, turn into highly political animals.
They are hungry for change, and it wont come from the ballot boxes; they have learned through solidarity an ounce of resistance is worth a pound of votes.

If there was some major institutional inequality at play and the government introduce internment or begin shooting protesters it could turn out like the troubles. Unless that happens the protest will fizzle out

The idea that holding up a slogan and throws things at a minister's car makes someone a 'Political Animal' makes me wonder what you think politics even is.

People are hungry for change but by 2016 they will all be paying water charges on direct debit at 20 quid a month.

Can't argue with the rest of it though. SF/FF looks likely, Leo replacing Enda etc

DeadHand

costadeldole wrote: »

The protests haven't reached their tipping point yet, and that is what is needed to turn a protest into a revolt or rising.
The day a Garda strikes a protester with a baton, or a protester strikes a minister; that is the tipping point, and the protest quickly escalates to something very different.

Where will the things that revolts are made of (guns, organisation, leadership and soldiers) come from?

Someone getting smacked with a baton or Simon Coveney getting a punched in the head will spark off a popular uprising? You seriously believe that?

What will this "rising" entail? Richard Boyd Barret occupying the GPO? Ruth Coppinger heading the garrison at the Four Courts?

Loads of fantastical nonsense being spouted in this thread.

El_Duderino 09

costadeldole wrote: »

Well there are 2 possible outcomes by 2016;
political change from the general election.
Or a rising when the protests have reached their tipping point.
One cannot underestimate the additional Republican influence around the time of the centenary. They may well get involved with the protests, adding military direction and organisation to the mix.
I expect a surge in support for both FF and Sinn Fein, if only as protest votes against the austerity, cuts, and taxation of the FG/Labour.
People are hungry for change, and they will get it one way or another rising/election. If the election isn't to their satisfaction; then that leaves the other option.

Option 3: They can go on the internet and whinge about the government like we are doing right now. This is far more likely than any kind or revolution.

Seriously, What would be the goal of a revolution. Boil it down to 3 principals

DeadHand

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Seriously, What would be the goal of a revolution. Boil it down to 3 principals

Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.


Or something...

costadeldole

DeadHand wrote: »

Where will the things that revolts are made of (guns, organisation, leadership and soldiers) come from?

Someone getting smacked with a baton or Simon Coveney getting a punched in the head will spark off a popular uprising? You seriously believe that?

What will this "rising" entail? Richard Boyd Barret occupying the GPO? Ruth Coppinger heading the garrison at the Four Courts?

Loads of fantastical nonsense being spouted in this thread.

To answer your questions:
The IRA.
It would take more than a punch, maybe a bullet fired.
The Dáil being stormed.
Say armed Garda were sent in to put down protesters with rubber bullets, tear gas, water cannons, etc. That could be the tipping point where things escalate.

El_Duderino 09

DeadHand wrote: »

Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.


Or something...

Maybe

Solidarity, Fairness, Prosperity

Or

Profitability, Efficency, Free Water (Pay for Electricity and Sky though)

costadeldole

DeadHand wrote: »

Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.


Or something...

That is Freemasonry.
Freemasons are bound to keep the peace, and abide by the laws and constitution of the country in which they live.
Revolution is something different.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

costadeldole wrote: »

Well there are 2 possible outcomes by 2016;
political change from the general election.
Or a rising when the protests have reached their tipping point.
One cannot underestimate the additional Republican influence around the time of the centenary. They may well get involved with the protests, adding military direction and organisation to the mix.
I expect a surge in support for both FF and Sinn Fein, if only as protest votes against the austerity, cuts, and taxation of the FG/Labour.
People are hungry for change, and they will get it one way or another rising/election. If the election isn't to their satisfaction; then that leaves the other option.

Neither of those two possible outcomes will happen.

Revolution is completely off the table unless something drastic happens like prohibition of alochol.

Political change is ven further off the table because people are not hungry for change. People are terrified of change. Politcal change would be switch to a far right or centrist left government.

The 3rd possible outvcome is the one that will happen 2016: nothing changes. Either the current government get relected and carry on or FF get back in and continue where they left off.

El_Duderino 09

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

The 3rd possible outvcome is the one that will happen 2016: nothing changes. Either FG get relected or FF get back in and continue the same ****.

There will be no change.

I disagree that nothing will change. Change will happen slowly as it always does. The economy is recovering slowly and will continue to recover. It won't make peoples massive mortgages go away but more and more people are at least getting jobs.

In 2 years Unemployment will be further down, wages will be up a bit and most people won't give tuppence about government.

costadeldole

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

Neither of those two possible outcomes will happen.

Revolution is completely off the table unless something drastic happens like prohibition of alochol.

Political change is ven further off the table because people are not hungry for change. People are terrified of change. Politcal change would be switch to a far right or centrist left government.

The 3rd possible outvcome is the one that will happen 2016: nothing changes. Either the current government get relected and carry on or FF get back in and continue where they left off.

Perhaps you are right.
The Republicans may just let off a few fireworks to mark the centenary of the Easter Rising, then go home nice and quietly for some jelly and ice cream.

TiMe2PaRtYYYYY

My prediction is that there will be change but only if the people really want it,,,, politics in its current form has ruined this country for the worst...

El_Duderino 09

costadeldole wrote: »

Perhaps you are right.
The Republicans may just let off a few fireworks to mark the centenary of the Easter Rising, then go home nice and quietly for some jelly and ice cream.

You seem optimistic about the idea of republicans becoming violent. Do you think they would do a good job of running the country? How would foreign governments and investors react of the republicans did take over?

DeadHand

costadeldole wrote: »

To answer your questions:
The IRA.
It would take more than a punch, maybe a bullet fired.
The Dáil being stormed.
Say armed Garda were sent in to put down protesters with rubber bullets, tear gas, water cannons, etc. That could be the tipping point where things escalate.

Oh dear...

The IRA lacks the widespread public support necessary to orchestrate a popular, fullscale revolt.

So it's gone from a baton or a punch to a bullet being fired. You can see the Gardai blasting into crowds indiscriminantly? Seriously?

Storming the Dail, rubber bullets, tear gas, water cannons...

Aren't you getting just a little overexcited?

costadeldole

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You seem optimistic about the idea of republicans becoming violent. Do you think they would do a good job of running the country? How would foreign governments and investors react of the republicans did take over?

I wouldn't say I was optimistic. If you read through my other threads you will see I have previously stated I have no desire to see another 30 years of the Troubles, and 3000 lives lost.
No, I don't think Republicans would do a good job of running our country.
React badly I would think, and most likely impose sanctions to bring things back under EU control.
In any case, my opinion counts for very little; what I think either way wont make a difference to whether a rising occurs or not. I see it as more likely that many people think though. It takes very little to reach a tipping point.
The Civil Rights marches in the North began peacefully, yet they led to the Troubles.
I don't for one minute thing the water charge protesters intend for things to escalate to a rising, but sometimes things can happen and quickly get out of hand.

El_Duderino 09

That's enough for me. If costadeldole is any indication of the seriousness of revolution, then we have nothing to worry about.

Your, messages could be summarised as ... Protesters...The ghost of 1916... Solidarity... Revolution... Haven't thought Past this point.

So in response to the OP, there a good chance of change of government and very little danger of revolution

TiMe2PaRtYYYYY

ALL the current political parties have failed the people ... they play a vote catching game when they are in opposition and when they get in power ... guess what... they fail... no useful solution + bad leadership = fail and always fail for the people, but not for the elected servants who when elected and then think we the people are their servants... coz whatever happens they will still draw a massive pension for a job not well done.....