if the government falls, then what??

Dickie10

ok im just wondering is there any real wish to see this government fail among the ordinary voters, the plain people of ireland if u like. im not politically invoved witha party, but would be centre right in my outlook mostly through fear because i am a self made person.

anyway if the government did fall like so many u here spouting about getting rid of them and all this, Who will be voted in ? this is the most simple question of all but i can see there not really being a simple answer.

Personally i would leave them where they are i think FG prob deserve another term because of the way they dealt with the economy and the crap we were in before this, labour to have stood up and shown some balls i never thought they had, they have clamped down well on welfare and lifers on dole too.

realistically though i think labour are gone for a while perhaps the same way as the greens, i would imaginee when and if voters voted in the morning we would have a FG/FF and some independents as the first 3 home. i dont buy that the good people of ireland would ever vote in Sinn Fein to office. the others i cant see getting enough votes like socalists etc.

So at the end of the day would people be happy with FG/FF coalition if it occured? i genuinely believe this is what we will see, perhaps FF/FG/SF, i think ff would in with FG before SF with the few parish pump indos thrown in

Godge

If the government is to fall, it will be in October 2015 over the 2016 budget.

It will be the last chance for one or other of the two parties to take a stance over an important issue.

For Labour, social welfare increases or public sector pay increases could be the issue. For FG, tax cuts before either of the above could be the issue.

Before then, they have too much to lose by breaking up.

Skrynesaver

while I'd like to see the current govt. reminded that they serve the country rather than the reverse and youLabour are going to get a severe kicking at the next election and you're probably right in saying that a FF/FG coalition will result however I can't see FG or Labour losing sufficient numbers to force a GE any time soon.

Godge

Skrynesaver wrote: »

while I'd like to see the current govt. reminded that they serve the country rather than the reverse and youLabour are going to get a severe kicking at the next election and you're probably right in saying that a FF/FG coalition will result however I can't see FG or Labour losing sufficient numbers to force a GE any time soon.

It is much too early to call the next general election.

In particular, a change in leadership in FF could alter things dramaticially. Cuiv would go into coalition with SF before he would with FG, he would see it as a natural reunification of republicanism.

FG will not go into coalition with SF.

If FG/Lab do not have the numbers, I think that there will be a second election before the end of 2016 as the magic money tree won't be able to deliver for SF and the socialists.

maccored

Godge wrote: »

In particular, a change in leadership in FF could alter things dramaticially. Cuiv would go into coalition with SF before he would with FG, he would see it as a natural reunification of republicanism.

the only way any from FF is going to end up in government with SF will be if they leave FF and join the shinners - who probably wouldnt have them anyway.

Godge

maccored wrote: »

the only way any from FF is going to end up in government with SF will be if they leave FF and join the shinners - who probably wouldnt have them anyway.

Eamon Cuiv doesn't think so, he would bring the two together in an instant.


http://www.midwestradio.ie/index.php/news/8323-eamon-ocuiv-calls-for-fianna-fail-and-sinn-fein-to-join-forces


"Eamon O'Cuiv is calling for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin to join forces - in a bid to reunite the party that his grandfather Eamon de Valera split.
In an interview with the Irish Daily Mail, the Galway Deputy said out of all the parties Sinn Féin is the most compatible match to Fianna Fáil because they are both republican."

nuac

Godge wrote: »

Eamon Cuiv doesn't think so, he would bring the two together in an instant.


http://www.midwestradio.ie/index.php/news/8323-eamon-ocuiv-calls-for-fianna-fail-and-sinn-fein-to-join-forces


"Eamon O'Cuiv is calling for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin to join forces - in a bid to reunite the party that his grandfather Eamon de Valera split.
In an interview with the Irish Daily Mail, the Galway Deputy said out of all the parties Sinn Féin is the most compatible match to Fianna Fáil because they are both republican."

Are there any Irish politicians or parties who are not republican?

meglome

I would dearly love if some new political parties came up but that's not looking good. And I mean ones that don't just spout whatever is populist at the time. Looks like I'll be voting the same people again whenever the next election is.

Phoebas

nuac wrote: »

Are there any Irish politicians or parties who are not republican?

All of the other 'west brit' parties. :eek:

alastair

nuac wrote: »

Are there any Irish politicians or parties who are not republican?

There's only SF with any heritage as a monarchist party - the rest are actual republican parties from inception. Which would make SF the least republican choice of the bunch.

bcmf

If FF/FG were to somehow make up the numbers the question I would ask is would FF be able to sit in govt being the minor party.
Knowing that they would be playing little brother to the old enemy may just be too unbearable for the FF ego's to bear.
I believe many years of unstable governments awaits us.

Dickie10

if FF and FG went into government which they probarbly should because there both centre parties, it could end up being a dictatorship because there are that many cute hoors in both parties that i think if they went in to government they would both realise how alike they are and you wouldnt get them out for 20 years, i mean who is going to gt more votes than either of them? sinn fein/labour and socalist party and few indos? good lord what a motley crew that would be! there actually would be the seed of real leftist revolution then, perhaps that is why ff an fg make sure one is out when the other is in?

Godge

Going in with FG would be too much for the Eamon Cuivs and Timmy Dooleys of this world, they would much rather SF. After the next election, this DeValera wing of the party will have control of the party.

Sierra Oscar

Interesting to hear Vincent Browne declare tonight that he believes we are in store for a FG/SF coalition after the next election. It certainly will be tempting for SF to be in power for 2016, and FG are desperate to make history by entering into a second term.

Muahahaha

Dickie10 wrote: »

if FF and FG went into government which they probarbly should because there both centre parties, it could end up being a dictatorship because there are that many cute hoors in both parties that i think if they went in to government they would both realise how alike they are and you wouldnt get them out for 20 years, i mean who is going to gt more votes than either of them? sinn fein/labour and socalist party and few indos? good lord what a motley crew that would be! there actually would be the seed of real leftist revolution then, perhaps that is why ff an fg make sure one is out when the other is in?

The one thing I took out of yesterdays opinion poll was that the numbers for the three establishment parties of FF/FG/Lab collectively added up to a total 49%. As far as I am aware this is the first time ever that 51% of the Irish public do not intend voting for FF, FG or Labour. I think that is significant in itself and is perhaps reflective of the anger that is out there over Irish Water plus all the other cock ups this government has stumbled through. Whilst the left and independents could never form a stable government I think it still shows that things are changing here.

touts

Dickie10 wrote: »

if FF and FG went into government which they probarbly should because there both centre parties, it could end up being a dictatorship because there are that many cute hoors in both parties that i think if they went in to government they would both realise how alike they are and you wouldnt get them out for 20 years, i mean who is going to gt more votes than either of them? sinn fein/labour and socalist party and few indos? good lord what a motley crew that would be! there actually would be the seed of real leftist revolution then, perhaps that is why ff an fg make sure one is out when the other is in?

So you would object to a FG & FF government being re-elected by the people for over 20 years because that would be a "dictatorship" and would advocate a "leftist revolution" as an alternative?

Next time you are in a restaurant/shop being served by someone from the former Soviet Union or the current Chinese communist state ask them would they prefer to live in a "dictatorship" of elected governments or a state run by "leftist" revolutionaries.

As to what would happen if the government collapsed I fully expect the next couple of elections to return very unstable short lived governments (think Italy in the 90s). BUT I think we will see a new center-right party emerge and become a counterweight to Sinn Fein. Then we will settle into a period of alternating Right/Left governments with the major party in government supported by like minded independents and small parties.

Banjo String

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Interesting to hear Vincent Browne declare tonight that he believes we are in store for a FG/SF coalition after the next election. It certainly will be tempting for SF to be in power for 2016, and FG are desperate to make history by entering into a second term.

If that happens, and unless it's as a SF led Govt, expect SF to lose a lot of its core supporters.

Phoebas

Banjo String wrote: »

If that happens, and unless it's as a SF led Govt, expect SF to lose a lot of its core supporters.

Likewise with FG. It isn't on the cards at all. VB must be loosing the plot altogether.

nesf

Banjo String wrote: »

If that happens, and unless it's as a SF led Govt, expect SF to lose a lot of its core supporters.

SF would have to be insane to be a minority partner to FG. Having to govern is bad enough but compromising with FG on policy? They'd get destroyed.

Rubberchikken

the present govt, lets not kid ourselves, has done nothing for this country.
irish voters have the shortest memories known to man when it comes to election time.

plus no matter who is voted in, the suits in the civil service who effectively run this country, are still there, invisible and looking after the interests of those that matter to them.

i have gone past having any faith in any political party in ireland and feel that it'll be the same old story forever. nothing will change.

Zubeneschamali

I think the Don't Know numbers are interesting.

If the last 3 years has left you saying Don't Know instead of SF, FF or Independent, what are you going to do on election day? Stay home, maybe, but I think there are a lot of FG/Labour voters in there who simply cannot and will not vote for SF or FF.

What percentage will sigh and vote FG/Labour again to keep SF out?

Godge

FG/SF is not an option, it just won't happen.

FF are the interesting one, they have gone into coalition with everyone over the years bar SF and FG. They have been a minority government supported by independents and have coalesced with the PDs, Labour and the Greens. They also had Workers Party support from outside the government in the 1980s. If the current polls are anyway accurate, FF will be the kingmakers, making either FG or SF their partners in government. Is this what people really want?

Idbatterim

If ever there was motivation or the chance to get a new party off the ground, this is it. What are they waiting for? FG by simply ditching Kenny should get a decent bump in support, so many voters here vote for personalities and not policy. My mother who is self employed voted Labour in the last GE for god sake!

Zubeneschamali

Godge wrote: »

FF will be the kingmakers, making either FG or SF their partners in government. Is this what people really want?

Since many people joined FF as a kind of reflex, they were the main party of government for most of our history, it's possible that getting into a coalition government would actually boost their support, rather than hurt it.

Zubeneschamali

Idbatterim wrote: »

If ever there was motivation or the chance to get a new party off the ground, this is it. What are they waiting for?

For a new party to get traction, it needs to stand for something, and "We're new!" isn't enough.

Then, there are years of setting up grassroots: members, committees, fundraising, candidates in every constituency. Even SF aren't there yet after many years. A new party has no chance.

First Up

Rubberchikken wrote: »

the present govt, lets not kid ourselves, has done nothing for this country.
irish voters have the shortest memories known to man when it comes to election time.

plus no matter who is voted in, the suits in the civil service who effectively run this country, are still there, invisible and looking after the interests of those that matter to them.

i have gone past having any faith in any political party in ireland and feel that it'll be the same old story forever. nothing will change.

The present government has pulled the country out of the mire and your remark about the invisible civil service is just plain ridiculous.

BoJack Horseman

Rubberchikken wrote: »

the present govt, lets not kid ourselves, has done nothing for this country

With the primary budget back in surplus & continent leading economic & employment growth, I wish all governments would do the same "nothing".

Can you imagine if they did 'something'!

mrbrianj

FG/FF, if they formed a government, what happens in the following election?

when it goes back to consistuencies, the options would be vote the strongest FF/FGer's leaving room for alternative candidates. SF could get a real boost in seats from this.

Kind of opposite of divide and conquer.

Dickie10

well i wasnt advocating a leftist revolution i would fear that immensley, just though there would be no sane people to put manners on FF /FG in opposition only looney lefts. i really thin that people will vote in a fg/ff coalition government, there are an awful lot of FF people still around they just have the head down and when the next election comes up i genuinley belive they will get a big vote second to FG.

if labour came out and supported the farmers in the beef crisis or found a niche to support small farmers and rural sustainability they could well rescue themselves, the dublin media and media in general tend to forget that ireland is probabrly the most agrarian, rural nation in western europe, i mean our capital only has 1.5 million population, and is still predominantly relying on agriculture for its blue collar work, ie guinness, meat processsing, dublin port, food processing. there are no really big steel plants, car manufacturing, ship buiding.

I think reform alliance could have a big impact if they became a party with a centre right outlook, again much as the dublin media would like us to belive were all liberal scandinavians or dutch, ireland is still very conservative and religion still has a huge grip on the country take for example national schools still held in power by church both catholic and protestant and mass attendences are still very high compared to catholic areas in New York or Chicago

mrbrianj

I think the "most" likely option will be FF/FG.

FG will get a kick for Enda's antics, Irish water and so on. FF will get some more support from people that suffering from amnesia, fed up with lab and wont vote SF.

But the pressure is on after that. The landscape will have changed radically - RA or SF will be a strong opposition, for better or worse. We will have a right, left and centre. Expect eurosceptics and proEU to replace civil war politics.

keno-daytrader

SF/FF next govt is a possibility, but the real scary thought for me is the possibility of "Taoiseach Gerry Adams".

I've had no faith in Bertie, Brian or Enda as leaders, but Gerry Adams as leader of the Govt would be a new low in Irish politics in my eyes. :mad:

Zubeneschamali

mrbrianj wrote: »

I think the "most" likely option will be FF/FG.
:
The landscape will have changed radically - RA or SF will be a strong opposition, for better or worse. We will have a right, left and centre. Expect eurosceptics and proEU to replace civil war politics.

I'd like to see a realignment around left-right, but the left would lose election after election, and end up in the middle like Labour today, and we'd be back with a smidge left of centre vs. a smidge right of centre.

Just like FF vs. FG/Labour coalition.

Dannyboy83

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think the Don't Know numbers are interesting.

If the last 3 years has left you saying Don't Know instead of SF, FF or Independent, what are you going to do on election day? Stay home, maybe, but I think there are a lot of FG/Labour voters in there who simply cannot and will not vote for SF or FF.

What percentage will sigh and vote FG/Labour again to keep SF out?

A lot less than 4 years ago; Labour are counting on it (as are FG & FF), but Labour will be maimed in any case.
I think it's quite unusual that people are not expecting to see a reactionary vote.

After the destruction of FF, in order to kill Civil War politics and finally bring about normal Left/Right politics, I think there are one of two things (or maybe both) left that need to happen:
A) FG/FF coalition
SF in office as the large coalition partner

If FF/FG will grow up and agree to go into government together, I'll vote for FG again.
If not, then I will vote for SF as a protest vote.
Whatever is most reactionary, that's the route I'll take.

An FF/FG government would be less painful, but we will learn more from an SF government.

Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things.

First Up

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

A lot less than 4 years ago; Labour are counting on it (as are FG & FF), but Labour will be maimed in any case.
I think it's quite unusual that people are not expecting to see a reactionary vote.

After the destruction of FF, in order to kill Civil War politics and finally bring about normal Left/Right politics, I think there are one of two things (or maybe both) left that need to happen:
A) FG/FF coalition
SF in office as the large coalition partner

If FF/FG will grow up and agree to go into government together, I'll vote for FG again.
If not, then I will vote for SF as a protest vote.
Whatever is most reactionary, that's the route I'll take.

An FF/FG government would be less painful, but we will learn more from an SF government.

Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things.

And a protest vote for SF is about as constructive as cutting off your leg because you sprained your ankle.

crusher000

For me party politics in Ieland doesn't mean squat, doesn't matter what party any particular politician is with it's all about the rich in Ireland holding onto the status quo keeping the old brigade in place and ensuring the rich of this country hold onto their wealth and the rest of the country paying a larger percentage of their earnings/welfare in taxes etc. They're is a huge void and in balance in Irish politics ( but it's the same across Europe ) where the people at the lower end of the wealth table are dragged further and further down. Then the net is widened to darg more people in. The current Government have bled and bled people dry they don't know where to stop, and am afraid won't stop until they have taken all our wages. A lot of people have nothing left at the end of the week for themselves, having to make choices on what bill to pay next, going without so their children will have dinner. Private sector wages have stood still for the last 5/6 years, yet demands on the wages have increased.

It's not a change in government we need but a change in the type of politician that we have.

ardmacha

crusher000 wrote: »

For me party politics in Ieland doesn't mean squat, doesn't matter what party any particular politician is with it's all about the rich in Ireland holding onto the status quo keeping the old brigade in place and ensuring the rich of this country hold onto their wealth and the rest of the country paying a larger percentage of their earnings/welfare in taxes etc. They're is a huge void and in balance in Irish politics ( but it's the same across Europe ) where the people at the lower end of the wealth table are dragged further and further down. Then the net is widened to darg more people in. The current Government have bled and bled people dry they don't know where to stop, and am afraid won't stop until they have taken all our wages. A lot of people have nothing left at the end of the week for themselves, having to make choices on what bill to pay next, going without so their children will have dinner. Private sector wages have stood still for the last 5/6 years, yet demands on the wages have increased.

It's not a change in government we need but a change in the type of politician that we have.

Which country is this? Not Ireland with one of the most progressive income tax regimes in the world, I presume.

crusher000

ardmacha wrote: »

Which country is this? Not Ireland with one of the most progressive income tax regimes in the world, I presume.

For me party politics in Ieland

For Reals

Godge wrote: »

Eamon Cuiv doesn't think so, he would bring the two together in an instant.


http://www.midwestradio.ie/index.php/news/8323-eamon-ocuiv-calls-for-fianna-fail-and-sinn-fein-to-join-forces


"Eamon O'Cuiv is calling for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin to join forces - in a bid to reunite the party that his grandfather Eamon de Valera split.
In an interview with the Irish Daily Mail, the Galway Deputy said out of all the parties Sinn Féin is the most compatible match to Fianna Fáil because they are both republican."

We've many shysters and greasy conmen in politics, but O'Cuiv is the biggest danger to Ireland of them all.
He's old school church and state. Was up to his neck in Fianna Fail, but backed off into the shadows pre demolishing of the country.

First Up

ardmacha wrote: »

Which country is this? Not Ireland with one of the most progressive income tax regimes in the world, I presume.

That plain and simple fact has been pointed out a thousand times but the Crushers of this world will not be denied their delusions.

triple nipple

nuac wrote:

Are there any Irish politicians or parties who are not republican?

fg, labour

crusher000

First Up wrote: »

That plain and simple fact has been pointed out a thousand times but the Crushers of this world will not be denied their delusions.

Yes low income tax is great, USC, Paye, Pension levy and PRSI. Und mie ist the delusion one.

Godge

crusher000 wrote: »

Yes low income tax is great, USC, Paye, Pension levy and PRSI. Und mie ist the delusion one.

http://www.publicpolicy.ie/progressi...x-system-2013/

"Ireland has the most progressive income tax system (including employee social insurance contributions) in the EU and the wider OECD. The tax paid by a single person on half average earnings is the second lowest in the OECD and is less than one-thirteenth that in Denmark while the tax paid by a single person on two and a half times average earnings is the 9th highest in the OECD. At average income levels we are the 27th highest in OECD."


The 2015 budget increased progressivity in the income tax system. We are actually at the point where the only option for improving public services is to impose more income tax on the average and lower-than average earnings worker. Politically impossible in the current climate but that is the reality.

This is one of the more stark conclusions:

"If the average single worker in Ireland on an income of about €36,000 paid tax at the rates applicable in Denmark, they would pay over €7,600 more in income tax and social insurance contributions."

Why do I keep having to point out the facts time and again to people? We have the most progressive tax system in the world according to the OECD.

crusher000

Godge wrote: »

http://www.publicpolicy.ie/progressi...x-system-2013/

"Ireland has the most progressive income tax system (including employee social insurance contributions) in the EU and the wider OECD. The tax paid by a single person on half average earnings is the second lowest in the OECD and is less than one-thirteenth that in Denmark while the tax paid by a single person on two and a half times average earnings is the 9th highest in the OECD. At average income levels we are the 27th highest in OECD."


The 2015 budget increased progressivity in the income tax system. We are actually at the point where the only option for improving public services is to impose more income tax on the average and lower-than average earnings worker. Politically impossible in the current climate but that is the reality.

This is one of the more stark conclusions:

"If the average single worker in Ireland on an income of about €36,000 paid tax at the rates applicable in Denmark, they would pay over €7,600 more in income tax and social insurance contributions."

Why do I keep having to point out the facts time and again to people? We have the most progressive tax system in the world according to the OECD.

My point is :

Poorer people in Ireland pay out more of their income in tax

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/poorer-people-in-ireland-pay-out-more-of-their-income-in-tax-1.1910725

crusher000

Another call out.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/poorer-people-in-ireland-pay-out-more-of-their-income-in-tax-1.1910725

Specifically, the research showed the poorest 10 per cent of the population shelled out 16 per cent of their income on VAT while the top 10 per cent of earners paid out just 4 per cent.

Note figures 16% and 4%

Riskymove

crusher000 wrote: »

Note figures 16% and 4%

seriously?


4% of the highest income is a lot more than 16% of the lowest income

lower income groups spend more of their disposable income on things like food, booze, fags etc....hardly a surprise

crusher000

Riskymove wrote: »

seriously?


4% of the highest income is a lot more than 16% of the lowest income

lower income groups spend more of their disposable income on things like food, booze, fags etc....hardly a surprise

Those with the least disposable income pay more preportional in taxes than those in the higher band.

Zubeneschamali

crusher000 wrote: »

My point is :

Poorer people in Ireland pay out more of their income in tax

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/poorer-people-in-ireland-pay-out-more-of-their-income-in-tax-1.1910725

I heard that report discussed on the radio: if you exclude the very bottom rung, you get the standard picture: a progressive tax system.

It's an unrefereed work in progress, original here at NERI. The guys on the radio couldn't figure out who that bottom decile were, exactly, that throw off the curve. They are apparently on much less than the lowest levels of social welfare. The original paper doesn't make it easy to tell, I only see an income breakdown into deciles for 1987.

Dannyboy83

First Up wrote: »

And a protest vote for SF is about as constructive as cutting off your leg because you sprained your ankle.

as opposed to ?

trying the same thing and expecting a different result?

crusher000

Godge wrote: »

http://www.publicpolicy.ie/progressi...x-system-2013/

"Ireland has the most progressive income tax system (including employee social insurance contributions) in the EU and the wider OECD. The tax paid by a single person on half average earnings is the second lowest in the OECD and is less than one-thirteenth that in Denmark while the tax paid by a single person on two and a half times average earnings is the 9th highest in the OECD. At average income levels we are the 27th highest in OECD."


The 2015 budget increased progressivity in the income tax system. We are actually at the point where the only option for improving public services is to impose more income tax on the average and lower-than average earnings worker. Politically impossible in the current climate but that is the reality.

This is one of the more stark conclusions:

"If the average single worker in Ireland on an income of about €36,000 paid tax at the rates applicable in Denmark, they would pay over €7,600 more in income tax and social insurance contributions."

Why do I keep having to point out the facts time and again to people? We have the most progressive tax system in the world according to the OECD.

Maybe because you don't understand the point so you use the same argument to back up the point you are trying to make.

First Up

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

as opposed to ?

trying the same thing and expecting a different result?

if you propose to tear something down, you ought to be able to describe what you will build in its place. "Something else" is not a strategy.

Godge

crusher000 wrote: »

My point is :

Poorer people in Ireland pay out more of their income in tax

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/poorer-people-in-ireland-pay-out-more-of-their-income-in-tax-1.1910725

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I heard that report discussed on the radio: if you exclude the very bottom rung, you get the standard picture: a progressive tax system.

It's an unrefereed work in progress, original here at NERI. The guys on the radio couldn't figure out who that bottom decile were, exactly, that throw off the curve. They are apparently on much less than the lowest levels of social welfare. The original paper doesn't make it easy to tell, I only see an income breakdown into deciles for 1987.

That report is a load of rubbish carried out by an organisation with an agenda.

Zubeneschamali is correct, it doesn't make sense. Who are the people who earn less than social welfare rates? Well, they are people who are living in households with significantly higher other income to make them ineligible for social welfare (students with small part-time jobs, stay-at-home spouses with part-time jobs etc.). Once you exclude them, the system is still progressive.

The OECD study is the only independent definitive study that measures the relative progressivity of income tax in various countries. We are the most progressive.