Central Bank to limit amount banks lend for home purchase

RecordStraight

Barely Hedged wrote: »

On my home.ie 50% of the properties for sale in Dublin are <= 300k.

Are prices in Dublin too high - no.

Are these 50% of the properties suitable for a couple, both earning, who might have or want a family?

Barely Hedged

RecordStraight wrote: »

Are these 50% of the properties suitable for a couple, both earning, who might have or want a family?

That criteria I.e. 3 bed reduces it to 30% of the market below 300k.

I dont see how 30% of the market share makes that market unaffordable

RecordStraight

Barely Hedged wrote: »

That criteria I.e. 3 bed reduces it to 30% of the market below 300k.

I dont see how 30% of the market share makes that market unaffordable

That's probably because included in those properties are plenty of falling-down dumps in rag-order, requiring tens or hundreds of thousands of euro to make them habitable, and plenty of others that are in extremely bad areas.

Right now there are SIX properties that meet your criteria in ALL of SCD (admittedly, one of the pricier quarters of the city). But only SIX!

In all of Dublin 3, there are TEN. All with BERs of E2 and G, all old dumps requiring a ton of extra money.

Without going through every postal district, the point is that reasonable homes in reasonable areas that you can actually live in cost a lot closer to 500k than 300k - which I think does make them overpriced.

Unless there is a swathe of reasonably pleasant properties in reasonable areas that I haven't considered...perhaps you can cite some examples? (not being argumentative, just looking to see if we are comparing like with like )

Barely Hedged

Bob24 wrote: »

Looking at asking prices for available properties is not enough though. What type of property you can get for these prices also matters. A high proportion of what is on sale in Dublin is crap that no one wants to buy even though it is cheaper, and these properties are lowering the average a lot as they are never getting off the market. In my opinion, for our country to be sustainable in the long term a couple who is on the average industrial wage should be able to afford a decently build house in a decently maintained neighbourhood. Whether or not it is the case is the real question (which is difficult to answer objectively as some people may say "yeah this is decent" about a rubbish place they would never live in themselves and others might have unreasonably high expectations about what a decent property is).

The question is : are prices too high in Dublin? No they're not. The above proves this beyond reasonable doubt. There is not a large proportion of "crap" to significantly affect the population of houses were looking at.

It's nothing more than unrealistic expectations bordering on snobbery.

There are plenty of decent houses in decent areas for that price. People need to get over their delusions of grandeur if they think not.

RecordStraight

Barely Hedged wrote: »

There are plenty of decent houses in decent areas for that price. People need to get over their delusions of grandeur if they think not.

Is this a decent house?

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/61-clanmaurice-road-donnycarney-dublin-5/3153204

or this:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/69-carrickmount-avenue-churchtown-dublin-14/3160230

Barely Hedged

RecordStraight wrote: »

Is this a decent house?

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/61-clanmaurice-road-donnycarney-dublin-5/3153204

Can you tell me what's not decent about it as you obviously think it's not.

The fact that you started your last post by analysing houses in a desireable area in SCD doesn't bode well for convincing you otherwise.

RecordStraight

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Can you tell me what's not decent about it as you obviously think it's not.

The fact that you started your last post by analysing houses in a desireable area in SCD doesn't bode well for convincing you otherwise.

'A desirable area in SCD'? I was talking about ALL OF SCD - about a quarter of Dublin!

I think you are just looking for a row, so I'm going to quit addressing you. You've made no sort of intelligent argument anyway.

Greyian

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Can you tell me what's not decent about it as you obviously think it's not.

The fact that you started your last post by analysing houses in a desireable area in SCD doesn't bode well for convincing you otherwise.

It's classed as a 3-bed for one, when it's really a 2 bed (and a reasonably cramped looking one at that).
Under the latest building requirements, isn't the minimum size for a one-bed 55sqm, and the minimum size for a 2 bed 85 sqm? So, if this property was being built now, it wouldn't even be a 2 bed.

Look at photo 11, aka "the kitchen". Is that really a decent quality kitchen?

Barely Hedged

RecordStraight wrote: »

'A desirable area in SCD'? I was talking about ALL OF SCD - about a quarter of Dublin!

I think you are just looking for a row, so I'm going to quit addressing you. You've made no sort of intelligent argument anyway.

There's about 360 houses in the even postcodes in Dublin for sale. You've been very selective with your analysis but it suits your narrative ie the first area an average industrial wage earning couple looking for a 3 bed house you searched for was "one of the priced areas of the city". How does that make sense?

Then you searched Dublin 3 and said houses had a crap ber and were a dump. It's one of the oldest parts of Dublin. Old houses have crap bers! North inner city Dublin has a lot of social issues also.

Barely Hedged

Greyian wrote: »

It's classed as a 3-bed for one, when it's really a 2 bed (and a reasonably cramped looking one at that).
Under the latest building requirements, isn't the minimum size for a one-bed 55sqm, and the minimum size for a 2 bed 85 sqm? So, if this property was being built now, it wouldn't even be a 2 bed.

Look at photo 11, aka "the kitchen". Is that really a decent quality kitchen?

A 1940s built house doesn't meet modern building standard sizes. Hardly a shock?

I'd say it's an average house but we are talking about a below average earning couple. A couple earning 30k each with a 30k deposit if they got it for 10k below asking could afford it? What do you expect on 30k a year?

RecordStraight

Barely Hedged wrote: »

There's about 360 houses in the even postcodes in Dublin for sale. You've been very selective with your analysis but it suits your narrative ie the first area an average industrial wage earning couple looking for a 3 bed house you searched for was "one of the priced areas of the city". How does that make sense?

Then you searched Dublin 3 and said houses had a crap ber and were a dump. It's one of the oldest parts of Dublin. Old houses have crap bers! North inner city Dublin has a lot of social issues also.

Right, so old houses aren't good. And houses in all of SCD are out too.

Where are all these liveable, reasonably-priced houses you keep on about?

RecordStraight

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I'd say it's an average house but we are talking about a below average earning couple. A couple earning 30k each with a 30k deposit if they got it for 10k below asking could afford it? What do you expect on 30k a year?

Somewhere to live?

You have the question backwards: you should be asking why a couple each earning 30k a year can't afford a reasonable house in a reasonable area. It's as if you can't countenance that the problem is the price of property.

dr.fuzzenstein

RecordStraight wrote: »

Somewhere to live?

You have the question backwards: you should be asking why a couple each earning 30k a year can't afford a reasonable house in a reasonable area. It's as if you can't countenance that the problem is the price of property.

I think the reasoning is something like that:
"Yay! High property prices! This is good, because recovery! Last time we had high property prices, we where doing great! Ergo high property prices and annual double digit property price inflation=Brilliant!" (dances out of room to "Celebration" by Kool and the Gang)

I honestly don't think* a lot of Irish economists are capable of thinking beyond the above. If you look at any "proper" countries (except the UK) in Europe, you will see a relatively flat and stable property market. Only the Irish have this sickness in their heads that a runaway housing market is a great thing.
I am saving my money so I can exploit the next crash and make it back thrice in the next boom after that. Boom Banga Bang, Baby! That should be the Irish national anthem.

*seriously, where did most of these guys go to clown college?

TheDriver

But there are other factors- I live in a big town yet there are zero houses on daft to rent. So not only do people factor in increased rents when bidding on houses, they also factor in the possibility of not being able to live in the town unless they win the bidding war.

Villa05

Barely Hedged wrote:

A 1940s built house doesn't meet modern building standard sizes. Hardly a shock?

Barely Hedged wrote:

I'd say it's an average house but we are talking about a below average earning couple. A couple earning 30k each with a 30k deposit if they got it for 10k below asking could afford it? What do you expect on 30k a year?

Is that house a former corporation house and if so how has it come to stage that a household earning 60k can only expect housing of this standard considering all the advancements in technology in that intervening period.

Bob24

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Can you tell me what's not decent about it as you obviously think it's not.

The fact that you started your last post by analysing houses in a desireable area in SCD doesn't bode well for convincing you otherwise.

Would you feed your kids in that kitchen or feel happy about moving your family in a 50-55 sqm living space on a very long term basis? (ad says 65 but once you count the staircase and the typical way EAs inflate actual sizes this is probably what you have left)

Also - no picture of the bathroom while they have plenty of other pictures - meaning it is so-so at best and completely rubbish at worst.

Greyian

Bob24 wrote: »

Would you feed your kids in that kitchen or feel happy about moving your family in a 50-55 sqm living space? (ad says 65 but once you count the staircase and the typical way EAs inflate actual sizes this is probably what you have left)

Also - no picture of the bathroom while they have plenty of other pictures - meaning it is so-so at best and completely rubbish at worst.

The more I look at it, the more I feel that calling it a "kitchen" is a very generous compliment. It looks like a seriously dodgy extension

MouseTail

Villa05 wrote: »

Is that house a former corporation house and if so how has it come to stage that a household earning 60k can only expect housing of this standard considering all the advancements in technology in that intervening period.

You need to look at the housing stock and history of housebuilding in the capital if you want to answer that question. There was always such a small middle class in Ireland, that housing was either State provided, initially for the slum clearances, and then during the inter and post war periods, or built privately for the affluent. For the most part the stock is actually very well built.
It was only after the introduction of free second level, and the opening up of the economy that a large middle class emerged, and by that time land use was such that Dublin needed to sprawl. With another surge after the introduction of free third level and a push for FDI.

If someone on the AIW discounts the large former corporation housing stock, they will find it difficult to find something else in the Capital.

Barely Hedged

RecordStraight wrote: »

Right, so old houses aren't good. And houses in all of SCD are out too.

Where are all these liveable, reasonably-priced houses you keep on about?

Theres places in decent/average areas such as Swords, Lucan, Santry, good parts of Tallaght and Clondalkin.

The reason I pick these is that they're average areas. We're talking about the average national industrial wage. Also, were talking about Dublin which has more higher income earners which would skew this 41k number upwards.

Barely Hedged

RecordStraight wrote: »

Somewhere to live?

You have the question backwards: you should be asking why a couple each earning 30k a year can't afford a reasonable house in a reasonable area. It's as if you can't countenance that the problem is the price of property.

More like a couple earning that should be asking themselves if I want an above average house maybe I should start doing something to move my income into the above average income bracket.

Applies to a lot of things in life. I don't know how the Dublin property market should be any different.

Barely Hedged

Villa05 wrote: »

Is that house a former corporation house and if so how has it come to stage that a household earning 60k can only expect housing of this standard considering all the advancements in technology in that intervening period.

What's the relevance of it being former corporation house? What about a former corporation house built in the same design off Stephen's Green or in Dalkey? Would you say the same about that?

It's an average house for a below average income. I can't dilute my point any more than that.

How have advancements in technology over the past 20/30 years enabled below average income earning people to buy above average houses????

RecordStraight

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Theres places in decent/average areas such as Swords, Lucan, Santry, good parts of Tallaght and Clondalkin.

Thanks for the specifics. It seems odd to me though that about 80% of Dublin (the areas you omit) is above average or extremely rough. I'd expect a more even split.

Barely Hedged

RecordStraight wrote: »

Is this a decent house?

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/61-clanmaurice-road-donnycarney-dublin-5/3153204

or this:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/69-carrickmount-avenue-churchtown-dublin-14/3160230

Also, the last sale price for Clanmaurice road was at the end of 2013 and was 180k. Even considering the house price inflation that's happened since then there's no way you'd get near the 250k asking price, suggesting that the house has a woefully inflated asking price. So, it's not really a great example that you've picked out.

Was it chosen for that reason?

Barely Hedged

RecordStraight wrote: »

Thanks for the specifics. It seems odd to me though that about 80% of Dublin (the areas you omit) is above average or extremely rough. I'd expect a more even split.

The list is not exhaustive and most of the areas above are bloody huge.

Also were talking about a very specific part of the property market. City and metropolitan 3 bed houses. You won't find them in 100% of the areas

Barely Hedged

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

I think the reasoning is something like that:
"Yay! High property prices! This is good, because recovery! Last time we had high property prices, we where doing great! Ergo high property prices and annual double digit property price inflation=Brilliant!" (dances out of room to "Celebration" by Kool and the Gang)

I honestly don't think* a lot of Irish economists are capable of thinking beyond the above. If you look at any "proper" countries (except the UK) in Europe, you will see a relatively flat and stable property market. Only the Irish have this sickness in their heads that a runaway housing market is a great thing.
I am saving my money so I can exploit the next crash and make it back thrice in the next boom after that. Boom Banga Bang, Baby! That should be the Irish national anthem.

*seriously, where did most of these guys go to clown college?

This reads like something out of the Ann and Barry book on Economics.

My reasoning was not that high property prices are great. I was questioning the point that there is nowhere affordable in Dublin

Barely Hedged

Bob24 wrote: »

Would you feed your kids in that kitchen or feel happy about moving your family in a 50-55 sqm living space on a very long term basis? (ad says 65 but once you count the staircase and the typical way EAs inflate actual sizes this is probably what you have left)

Also - no picture of the bathroom while they have plenty of other pictures - meaning it is so-so at best and completely rubbish at worst.

Come on - you can go down to B&Q and get a modern kitchen designed for every budget. I was never suggesting that the kitchen was suitable in this day and age.

There's also a seperate dining room and sitting room from the kitchen. That's a good aspect.
I don't think the bathroom is going to be a deal breaker for this house or many unless it was on the ground floor

Mongfinder General

Villa05 wrote: »

One of those "penny drops moment" quotes.

Do you think that these lending restrictions which are based on international best practice and introduced by a widely respected central banker are the problem or could it be that prices in Dublin are just simply too high?

Neither are the problem. It's unrealistic expectations from deluded buyers. That's the problem.

xper

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

I think the reasoning is something like that:
"Yay! High property prices! This is good, because recovery! Last time we had high property prices, we where doing great! Ergo high property prices and annual double digit property price inflation=Brilliant!" (dances out of room to "Celebration" by Kool and the Gang)

I honestly don't think* a lot of Irish economists are capable of thinking beyond the above. If you look at any "proper" countries (except the UK) in Europe, you will see a relatively flat and stable property market. Only the Irish have this sickness in their heads that a runaway housing market is a great thing.
I am saving my money so I can exploit the next crash and make it back thrice in the next boom after that. Boom Banga Bang, Baby! That should be the Irish national anthem.

*seriously, where did most of these guys go to clown college?

You lament the Irish attitude to a fluctuating property market and yet are actively planning to contribute to those fluctuations?

dr.fuzzenstein

Mongfinder General wrote: »

Neither are the problem. It's unrealistic expectations from deluded buyers. That's the problem.

I think that a combined income of €60k should be enough for someone to buy a reasonable home, I don't see what's deluded about that.

dr.fuzzenstein

xper wrote: »

You lament the Irish attitude to a fluctuating property market and yet are actively planning to contribute to those fluctuations?

Oh of course I forgot, how selfish of me. Hang on, I'll just go and pull that huge lever in the corner of my room that says "stop property market fluctuations" on it. All done, I fixed the property market, all by myself. Happy?