MATCH THREAD : Fri Oct 3rd 19:35 Connacht vs Blues SportsGround, TG4

connachta

Preview:

This match is one of the most important of the season...

It would be tighter than expected, Cardiff has had 2 correct away matches

the Key for them : targetting Carty, a liability in defence, 1/4 of his tackles missed last week
the Key for us : targetting the scrum (40% of their own put-ins lost last week)

Above 10% missed tackles for a player, yeah it's a problem if we want to be top 6/7
Carty was above for 3 of the 4 matches
And don't forget Patchell or Davies are both running fly-half, they didn't hesitate to go for the clean breaks until now...
So yeah, Ronaldson to counter that, and even O'Leary option on the bench is conceivable

on the fitness front

Healy uncertain
green light for Porter

Then, I'd go with

15. Darragh Leader
14. Niyi Adeolokun
13. Robbie Henshaw
12. Dave McSharry
11. Danie Poolman
10. Craig Ronaldson
9. Kieran Marmion

1. Denis Buckley
2. Dave Heffernan
3. Nathan White
4. Aly Muldowney
5. Mick Kearney
6. John Muldoon ©
7. Willie Faloon
8. Eoin McKeon

Replacements:

16. Shane Delahunt (JHW due to be back, but no rush "a la Heenan")
17. Ronan Loughney
18. Rodney Ah You
19. Quinn Roux
20. George Naoupu
21. Ian Porter
22. Shane O'Leary (cover 10 12 13)
23. Shane Layden (cover 11 14 15)

stephen_n

Should definitely be a win for Connacht, hopefully a bonus point too!

its_phil

Anything >90% of tackles completed is not a bad statistic. Relax

connachta

At Sportsground, 7.35pm. Live on TG4
Referee: Neil Paterson (SRU, 62nd competition game)
Assistant Referees: Andy Brace, John Carvill (both IRFU)
Citing Commissioner: John Cole (IRFU)
TMO: Dermot Moloney (IRFU)

vienne86

The way Cardiff played in the RDS last weekend, I think Connacht should be able to put them away in the Sportsground. Not sure about a bonus point, but I would definitely back Connacht.

cityman 18

Lets not get ahead of ourselves here with talk of bonus points wins etc. Yes it is a winnable game for Connacht, and in truth this is the first really big test this season, in that we were real outsiders against Leinster and Glasgow. But we are rightly expected to win this one. Scrum is now a big weapon, and from what iv'e seen of Cardiff this season, their scrum is not that hectic and can be got at. After a relatively quite start to the season in attack for Henshaw, it would be nice to see him open up on Friday. Connacht +8 for me.

S12b

Bonus point me arse, we're not a bonus point kind of team just yet......a win, solid performance and good defence would have me delighted!!!

stephen_n

The underdog attitude of the Irish, I would fancy Connacht to win and wouldn't imagine it will be a low scoring game, I would imagine Connacht easily have a four try performance in them, by no means a given but well capeable against a team as poor as Cardiff.

connemara man

S12b wrote: »

Bonus point me arse, we're not a bonus point kind of team just yet......a win, solid performance and good defence would have me delighted!!!

thats a bit harsh even though I agree with the sentiment but denying a loosing bonus point should be expected IMO

S12b

connemara man wrote: »

thats a bit harsh even though I agree with the sentiment but denying a loosing bonus point should be expected IMO

I suppose I should say it was the expectation of a bonus point win I was dismissing, of course we're capable of scoring four tries against Cardiff, I just wouldn't say we should expect it.

What I do expect is a dominant set piece and hopefully solid defence which should set us up for a win.....if the backs can string a few moves together or the big lads can shove over for a few tries all the better!!

galwaylad14

I'm defintley urging caution here, how many times have they let us down before when expected to win?

This is a real test though, a game we're expected to win at home. But it's never easy to win games without a goal kicker and let's be fair, we don't really have one if Porter isn't on the pitch.

Hopefully we do the business but talk of bonus points and denying them bonuses etc is premature. Any kind of a win and I'd be delighted.

molloyjh

galwaylad14 wrote: »

I'm defintley urging caution here, how many times have they let us down before when expected to win?

This is a real test though, a game we're expected to win at home. But it's never easy to win games without a goal kicker and let's be fair, we don't really have one if Porter isn't on the pitch.

Hopefully we do the business but talk of bonus points and denying them bonuses etc is premature. Any kind of a win and I'd be delighted.

Any kind of a win is really all you need at this point. That keeps you in the top half of the table with a cushion over the bottom half. Cardiff are a tough team defensively and slow ball down really well, but they don't seem to be able to create a huge amount. Shut them out of the game and take your opportunities the way you did against us and you should see it through. Go chasing the TBP and you could open the game up a bit for them. And as we saw last week they can be dangerous on loose turnover ball.

Denying them a LBP would be every bit as good as getting the TBP yourselves as it would put you at least 11 points clear of them. Looking at the fixtures over the next few rounds you should be looking to win 3 of the next 4 which should keep you in the top 5.

In all honesty the big game for you guys in the first half of the season is the home game against Scarlets at the end of November. You must win that one.

Fortress SportsGround

connemara man

from the Pro 12 preview

Connacht lost their 100% Guinness PRO12 winning record with their defeat at Glasgow on Friday evening. Connacht have won their last two matches at the Sportsground but have not won three in a row at the venue in the PRO12 since early 2013.

Cardiff Blues only victory in their last five PRO12 encounters came in Parma against Zebre in round 1 this season. Blues have won three of their last five away games, but have lost both of their encounters with Irish provinces this season.

Connacht have won just one of their last nine fixtures against the Blues: 26-22 at the Arms Park in February 2013. The Blues have lost just once in their last eight visits to the Galway Sportsground, in September 2009.

the head to heads over the years really show this as a big game we don't have the best record against the Blues hopefully current form will go for us and not the historic form

Robbo

galwaylad14 wrote: »

I'm defintley urging caution here, how many times have they let us down before when expected to win?

This is a real test though, a game we're expected to win at home. But it's never easy to win games without a goal kicker and let's be fair, we don't really have one if Porter isn't on the pitch.

Hopefully we do the business but talk of bonus points and denying them bonuses etc is premature. Any kind of a win and I'd be delighted.

I'm always uneasy with Connacht being favourites, weird results in strange European locations have instilled this in me.

I'd gladly settle for a 3-4 point dirty win.

Weather wise, we're looking at rain and a W/SW breeze. Simple gameplan, win the toss, play towards Bohermore first half and Leader to kick the leather off the ball from FB. Let the forwards build it nice and patiently, we should have it in the pack.

Start Kearney and Muldowney in the second row, release Swifty if things are getting a bit tasty in the second half.

Is Amorosino available for Cardiff since he signed this week? If I recall correctly, his pace makes him dangerous on the attack but his fielding isn't great.

connachta

Robbo wrote: »

Start Kearney and Muldowney in the second row, release Swifty if things are getting a bit tasty in the second half.

Like a watchdog out of his cage?:D

Robbo

connachta wrote: »

Like a watchdog out of his cage?:D

Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.

connachta

Connacht line-up v Cardiff Blues

15. Darragh Leader
14. Niyi Adeolokun
13. Robbie Henshaw
12. Craig Ronaldson
11. Danie Poolman
10. Jack Carty
9. Kieran Marmion

1. Ronan Loughney
2. Dave Heffernan
3. Nathan White
4. Mick Kearney
5. Quinn Roux
6. John Muldoon ©
7. Willie Faloon
8. George Naoupu

Replacements:

16. Shane Delahunt
17. Denis Buckley
18. Rodney Ah You
19. Aly Muldowney
20. Eoin McKeon
21. Ian Porter
22. Fionn Carr
23. Shane Layden

connachta

Cardiff Blues: 15 Adam Thomas, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Cory Allen, 12 Gavin Evans, 11 Dan Fish, 10 Rhys Patchell, 9 Lewis Jones; 1 Gethin Jenkins, 2 Matthew Rees (c), 3 Taufa’ao Filise, 4 Jarrad Hoeata, 5 Filo Paulo, 6 Macauley Cook, 7 Sam Warburton, 8 Manoa Vosawai

Replacements: 16 Kristian Dacey, 17 Sam Hobbs, 18 Scott Andrews, 19 Josh Turnbull, 20 Josh Navidi, 21Tavis Knoyle, 22 Gareth Davies, 23 Geraint Walsh

connachta

Ronaldson at a 12 for such a crucial match... big ask for him

I was right about Layden on the bench
Carr at 22??? who's the cover for centre??

EDIT : leader and poolman, my apologies

ssaye2

Best of Luck Connacht.

Testing but Cardiff are very beatable. Their stars dont perform as well as in Red.

Leinster lucky Patchell played out of position last week, he is very good at 10

.ak

What's the story with McSharry?

molloyjh

That's a fairly strong Cardiff side. They'll be looking to make amends for last week and start climbing the table again. If they don't start to turn things around they won't make Europe next season. I'd expect a bit more from them than maybe others here are. It's still one Connacht should win, but I suppose that's one of the reasons that its their biggest test this season.

b.gud

.ak wrote: »

What's the story with McSharry?

Rested from the sounds of the statement

“With Dave (McSharry) taking on a huge physical workload in the last four games, we’re going to manage him this week. It’s great to give an opportunity to young Craig (Ronaldson) at 12 who has done well for us coming off the bench and will also offer us added kicking options.

connachta

apparently the cardiff coach confirm he sees it as a transition match "A win would certainly build confidence, there is no doubt about that, but we are looking at the big picture here and taking another step forward as a team at Connacht.” BUT intox does exist and Warburton is on the teamsheet whereas he is limited to 16 games this season...
So I'm preplex kind of match I won't bet on. Could be a 20-point-margin win as well as a losing effort or a tight victory...

CatFromHue

I don't know what to make of Cardiff.

I watched the Cardiff Glasgow game and it reminded me of Connacht of old in that on play there wasn't a huge amount between the teams, well Glasgow were a bit ahead, but Cardiff shipped two easy easy tries. One was an intercept and the other Cardiff were attacking and had the ball ripped off one of their guys and Lamont ran it in from halfway. That's 14 points gone when Cardiff were in possession of the ball.

I didn't see the Ulster game but they did OK against Leinster last week but were never going to be in that game much.

Patchell is back to out half too and he looked a bit out of place at 15.

So CatFromHue's prediction for the game: Dunno lol

b.gud

I'm feeling confident about tonights game. There just seems to be a bit of confidence, but not cockiness, amongst the team in their ability and they believe, rightly so, that they are capable of competing with, and beating any team in the league.

molloyjh

b.gud wrote: »

I'm feeling confident about tonights game. There just seems to be a bit of confidence, but not cockiness, amongst the team in their ability and they believe, rightly so, that they are capable of competing with, and beating any team in the league.

That is something Lam has to take huge credit for. He shipped a lot of flak last season but you can see the impact he's having now.

Zzippy

Drying up nicely here now, maybe a few passing showers but should be a grand evening. Almost no wind at the moment, hopefully that holds...

.ak

Is it on the telly?

b.gud

.ak wrote: »

Is it on the telly?

Yup on TG4 at 19:10

b.gud

molloyjh wrote: »

That is something Lam has to take huge credit for. He shipped a lot of flak last season but you can see the impact he's having now.

Agreed he has been huge for the mentality of the team.

Robbo

Zzippy wrote: »

Drying up nicely here now, maybe a few passing showers but should be a grand evening. Almost no wind at the moment, hopefully that holds...

****ing good. I've been drenched and dried out on three separate occasions today in Dublin.

Still think that the key to this will be through the forwards and in particular the front row. Buckley's going to score a 60 yard breakaway on 55 minutes. Place your bets now.

Also, I recall nearly a year ago the unexpected starting of Ronaldson at 12 against Saracens and he did pretty well then. Was it him with the cross kick for Poolman?

Zzippy

Right, the missus can't go, so her season ticket is available - if anyone wants to go and hasn't bought a ticket yet PM me before 6.40 with your phone number, I can meet at the gate and get you in. I'm planning to be there about 7ish...

thomond2006

C'mon Connacht, let's get the weekend started on a good note!

vienne86

Connacht really up for this. Very impressed with this start. And they have a deserved lead. 3-0. Nice looking night for rugby too.

b.gud

Impressive from connacht so far.
3-0 up thanks to Ronaldson penalty

thomond2006

Ah try blown by Cardiff

b.gud

thomond2006 wrote: »

Ah try blown by Cardiff

Poor protection around the ruck allowed that chance to happen

vienne86

Cardiff are slippery. Connacht can't afford to live that dangerously.

thomond2006

Connacht lineout struggling

Luckily Rees gives away a very obvious penalty for holding Muldoon

thomond2006

If Connacht don't like get their lineout sorted they haven't a hope.

b.gud

thomond2006 wrote: »

Connacht lineout struggling

Luckily Rees gives away a very obvious penalty for holding Muldoon

The Lineout seriously needs to get sorted

Tox56

That was very naive execution in the 22 there, unnecessarily picking and going several times, and now they're facing a 5m scrum on their own line. Thats the stuff Connacht have to lose from their game

thomond2006

brilliant pass by Jones

b.gud

Try Cardiff

vienne86

Connacht need to concentrate. Cardiff are really in their faces and have stepped it up.

ssaye2

Unlucky

b.gud

Pressure for Heff on this lineout

b.gud

Try Henshaw?

ssaye2

Henshaw