October 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Through the 15th then ...

IMT at 9.9 C

PRC now around 140% of normal as 57% hit during the past week.

SUN boosted to 135% by the 149% received last week.

M.T. Cranium

Max gust of 53 knots on Saturday (18th) would give Rameire four points if that date holds up as (tied) second, and would be worth 3 pts if edged out (although Gonzalo may claim two different dates by arriving at midnight). Predictions of 19th would get one fewer point than Rameire's eventual value for this event.

At this stage, only three forecasters could gain points from a stronger gust in the coming days (one more is above the current value but at the max already).

M.T. Cranium

Using data from 16-22 Oct and monthly data ...

IMT is up to 10.7 (could be 10.8 after today)

PRC sits at 115% after a week that was very close to normal (estimated one station)

SUN now about 118% as the past week only managed 89% of normal.

The daily data were a bit different from hourlies on the recent wind event, but in any case the 21st is now the second highest at 59 kt (Malin, was 62 kts on an hourly) and the 20th was barely third at 54 kt. This means anyone with guesses in the range of 18 to 25 Oct has picked up a point or more, Mickger844posts would have four from his guess of the 21st, if no higher gusts now occur.

Tae laidir

Mullingar -1.0 on 29th may be minimum.

Joe Public

Today, the 31st, may have the maximum temp.

M.T. Cranium

Think so with those 19C hourly readings I am seeing at Dublin and PP, it might round off to 20 somewhere. Had a look at the data and estimate IMT has reached about 11.0 but may finish 11.2 with today's boost. Rainfall will finish near 125% and sunshine near 105%. Nothing new recently on the wind bonus. As we will be waiting for the 3rd of NOV to see any final data, I may estimate and revise a table.

Not sure how it would work out for Ireland but over on Net-weather I posted some data from the 242-year data set known as the CET, showing that 2014 may tie with 2005 or even move ahead as the warmest second half of October (16th-31st) in all of those years. Today's record in that series was set in 1772, the first year they kept track of daily temperatures (monthly data go even further back to 1659).

Perhaps Met-E will issue some comparable data. The month however is not as exceptional (in the CET and I would guess also in Ireland) as the first half was fairly average. It may be something like 20th warmest out of 243 cases after this warm ending. About two weeks ago it was sitting more like 120th.

Tae laidir

Not exceptionally warm after all yesterday. Rain kept temps down in most of country.
Max Dublin Airport 18.9, Baldonnel 18.2. Knock Airport only 14.5, and the Cork Stations struggled to get over 15.
Daily mins high though.

Joe Public

18.9 is perfect

M.T. Cranium

However, Phoenix Park on daily data showing 19.4 C, will see if that is confirmed in the MS. The IMT estimate turned out too high as Mullingar (which had been missing when I estimated) must have been lower, the final number itself was 11.0 C.

Will post a scoring table with various estimated values as well as confirmed ones, then will finalize that on the 3rd, but on the estimates I have so far, high score would appear to be 76 for mickger844posts, with Bsal close behind at 75.

One other minor revision, the daily data now show equal wind gusts on 5th (Roches Point) and 21st (Malin Head) at 63 kts. As far as I can see, no other windy days would have helped anyone score higher from values of 3,2 or 1 points as they were either next to the two peaks (thus no mathematical difference) or outside the range of guesses (1st Oct only worth 1 pt for 5th). Have scored on that basis but will check the minor peaks to see if it would help anyone's score. Provisional scores listed in order of forecast table, will re-order them when final.

Provisional scoring for October 2014

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__kts_date _______ TOTALS

___ estimated or final __11.0_19.4_-1.0_120_105_ 63_5,21

pauldry______________14 _ 04 _ 00 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 05 __ 04_ 01 ___ 45
sunflower3 ___________23 _ 19 _ 05 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 02 __01 _______ 67
M.T. Cranium _________25 _ 12 _ 00 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 03 __00 _______ 59
Jpmarn ______________24 _ 19 _ 15 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 04 __05 _ 01 ___ 10
mickger844posts ______23 _ 12 _ 17 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 03 __05 ________76
Bsal ________________23 _ 13 _ 15 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 02 __ 03 _______ 75
TheZohan ___________ 23 _ 06 _ 10 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 05 __ 01 _______ 61
waterways ___________22 _ 09 _ 00 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 02 __ 03 _______ 48
kindredspirit _________ 22 _ 19 _ 05 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 05 __02 ________ 71
DOCARCH ___________ 21 _ 03 _ 07 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 04 __03 ________ 56
rameire ______ (-10) __21 _ 17 _ 10 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 05 __02 __ 74-10=64
johnmac ____________ 20 _ 00 _ 16 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 01 __03 ________ 50

Con Sensus __________ 20 _ 16 _ 10 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 04 __03 _______ 74

rikand ______________ 20 _ 14 _ 10 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 05 __ 03 _______ 66
omicron ______ (-5) __ 20 _ 06 _ 10 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 02 __ 05 __ 68-5 =63
dacogawa ___________ 19 _ 15 _ 16 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 04 __ 03 _______ 69
200motels ___________19 _ 18 _ 20 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 00 __ 03 _______ 70
okla _________ (-5) ___19 _ 12 _ 07 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 01 __ 01__ 60-5 =55
Tae laidir ____________18 _ 10 _ 00 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 01 __ 02 _______ 54
jd __________ (-10) __ 17 _ 13 _ 12 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 00 __ 00 __59-10=49
dasa29 _____________ 15 _ 14 _ 10 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 02 __ 03 _______ 64
Harps _______________14 _ 08 _ 07 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 03__ 00 _______ 48
Joe Public____ (-5) ____14 _ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 01 __00 __ 49-5 =44
lostinashford _________ 13 _ 14 _ 07 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 02 __02 _______ 58
delw ________________08 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 05 __03 _______ 35

will have these adjusted on Monday, if the MS appears.

M.T. Cranium

Note: some errors in the above table, most notably Jpmarn's total is obviously way off, Johnmac was out by ten also. One or two scores in the table were off by 1-2 on checking, e.g. waterways MAX was boosted, and then as you'll read below the sunshine estimates themselves were off slightly so most sunshine scores are adjusted up or down one point.

Final values are posted, to confirm, the IMT was 11.0, the MAX was 19.4 (Phoenix Park 31st), the MIN was -1.0 (Mullingar 29th), the PRC was 120% as estimated, the SUN was 99% down a bit from my estimate, and the max gusts were 63 kts on both 5th and 21st. Third highest on 20th, fourth on 6th and fifth highest on 1st. None of those actually generated any points.

For the rainfall, ten stations of the usual eleven had 121% and Ballyhaise was reported as missing but the daily data showed all but two days (22-23) and those were not very wet at Dunsany or Finner, so I went with 110% for Ballyhaise as the data reported made for 105%. These scores have been checked one last time against the table of entries although only the sunshine values required any adjustments usually by one point up or down. Found a few minor errors in the process, all of them helpful to scores.

Final scoring for October 2014

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__kts_date _______ TOTALS


mickger844posts ______23 _ 12 _ 17 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 03 __05 ________77
Jpmarn ______________24 _ 19 _ 15 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 04 __05 _ 01 ___ 76
Bsal ________________23 _ 13 _ 15 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 02 __ 03 _______ 76

Con Sensus __________ 20 _ 16 _ 10 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 04 __03 _______ 75

kindredspirit _________ 22 _ 19 _ 05 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 05 __ 02 _______ 72
dacogawa ___________ 19 _ 15 _ 16 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 04 __ 03 _______ 72
200motels ___________19 _ 18 _ 20 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 00 __ 03 _______ 71
sunflower3 ___________23 _ 19 _ 05 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 02 __00 _______ 67
rameire ____ (-10) ____21 _ 17 _ 10 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 05 __02 __75-10=65
dasa29 _____________ 15 _ 14 _ 10 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 02 __ 03 _______ 65
rikand ______________ 20 _ 14 _ 10 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 05 __ 03 _______ 65
omicron ____ (-5) ____ 20 _ 06 _ 10 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 02 __ 05 __67-5 =62
johnmac ____________ 20 _ 00 _ 16 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 01 __03 ________62
TheZohan ___________ 23 _ 06 _ 10 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 05 __ 01 _______ 62
M.T. Cranium _________25 _ 12 _ 00 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 __00 _______ 60
lostinashford _________ 13 _ 14 _ 07 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 02 __03 _______ 59
DOCARCH ___________ 21 _ 03 _ 07 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 04 __ 03 _______ 57
okla _______ (-5) _____19 _ 12 _ 07 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 01 __ 01__ 61-5 =56
jd ________ (-10) ____ 17 _ 13 _ 12 _ 09 _ 10 ___ 00 __ 00 __61-10=51
waterways ___________22 _ 11 _ 00 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 02 __ 02 _______ 50
Harps _______________14 _ 08 _ 07 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 03__ 00 _______ 49
pauldry______________14 _ 04 _ 00 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 05 __ 04 _ 01 ___ 47
Tae laidir ____________18 _ 10 _ 00 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 01 __ 03 _______ 46
Joe Public___ (-5) _____14 _ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 01 __00 __ 50-5 =45
delw ________________08 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 05 __02 _______ 35
______________________________________________________

Congratulations to mickger844posts, Jpmarn and Bsal for managing to edge out our nemesis Con Sensus and well done to field for a fairly high scoring month in general.

Annual updates to follow hopefully within the next hour.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update through October 2014


Rank _ Forecaster ____ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O ___ TOTAL __ Best 8/10 (rank)

01 _Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 _ 46 _ 73 _ 75 __ 698 ____ 594 (1)

01 _rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 _ 51 _ 55 _ 65 __ 661 ____ 559 (1)
02 _Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 _ 60 _ 26 _ 76 __ 599 ____ 539 (2)
05 _harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 _ 68 _ --- _ 49 __ 585 ____ 528 (3)
03 _kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 _ 47 _ 38 _ 72 __ 591 ____ 506 (4)
06 _jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 _ 34 _ 68 _ 76 __ 580 ____ 503 (5)

08 _omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 _ 30 _ 71 _ 62 __ 572 ____ 502 (6)
09 _mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 _ 25 _ 69 _ 77 __ 568____ 502 (6)
07 _pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 _ 66 _ 58 _ 47 __ 579 ____ 492 (8)
04 _John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 _ 52 _ 69 _ 62 __ 588____ 488 (9)
10 _Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 _ 57 _ 36 _ 46 __ 560 ____ 486 (10)

14 _waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 30 _ 63 _ 50 __ 537 ____ 470 (11)
11 _DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 _ 43 _ 51 _ 57 __ 550 ____ 469 (12)
20 _jd _____________ 60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 _ 31 _ 69 _ 51 __ 466 ____ 466 (13)
12 _dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 _ 39 _ 49 _ 65 __ 542 ____ 463 (14)
18 _lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 _ 36 _ 57 _ 59 __ 499 ____ 463 (14)

13 _rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 _ 45 _ 62 _ 65 __ 541 ____ 455 (16)
17 _okla ___________ 59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 56 _ 57 _ 56 __ 504 ____ 455 (16)
15 _200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 _ 33 _ 59 _ 71 __ 521 ____ 450 (18)
16 _dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 _ 55 _ 35 _ 72 __ 517 ____ 450 (18)
19 _M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 _ 32 _ 30 _ 60 __ 480 ____ 424 (20)

21 _Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 _ 45 _ 58 _ 45 __ 464 ____ 412 (21)
25 _delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 35 __ 262 ____ 262 (22)
22 _Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 375
23 _traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 351
24 _The Zohan ______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 _ 42 _ 42 _ 82 _ 62 __ 288

26 _talkabout _______59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 255
27 _nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 236
28 _sunflower3______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ 24 _ 65 _ 67 __ 196
29 _homolumo ______ 58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 163
30 _Robxxx7 ________--- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- __ 136

31 _seafields ________40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- __ 123
32 _melanoma ______ 39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 104
33 _yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ --_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 94
34 _downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 64
35 _dexter647 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 55

36 _octo __________ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 47
37 _rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 46
38 _drdidlittle ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 40
39 _billcarson ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 39
40 _aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- ___ 28
________________________________________________________

The chase pack was quite active, but Rikand has a fairly comfortable lead over Bsal in both contests. Harps, Kindred Spirit and Jpmarn round out the top five in the main contest, while John mac has moved into fourth in the MTC totals. Mickger844posts is now pretty much level with omicron after leading October. The table remains ordered by the best 8/10 scores for the eventual 10/12 results (Boards.ie award) and the ranks for the MTC (all months) division are the numbers before the names.

Rikand

I wouldnt call 20 points comfortable lol

Still all to play for in the 10/12

M.T. Cranium

Yeah, I am thinking of upgrading my cranium to half-full, this empty one seems to be doing odd things. Still wondering how that total of 10 points came into existence, in particular because I always check my additions once before hitting the post button. Must have been off in a daydream at that point. Your 20 points can't be obliterated though, since your November forecasts (you and Bsal or Harps who are closest) are fairly similar and I estimate that you can't be much more than 20-25 points different in any outcome. In fact there's probably no forecast in the table that could mathematically gain more than 40 on yours in any outcome (except maybe delw).

Also where you have an advantage in the 10/12 is that your two low scores are 51, so if you score lower than 51 this month, November adds 51 to your total. If you score 51 or higher, then same applies in December. This is quite a bit better than the situation for most of the chasers, they are stuck with lower scores than you in the last two months.