Biggest Stake in a Shop

A_Sober_Paddy

Hey all,

Just a quick one for ye guys, whats the biggest stake a shop will take for a league two game for example, as its a small market? As i assume once the bet is taken it must be honored?

better call saul

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

Hey all,

Just a quick one for ye guys, whats the biggest stake a shop will take for a league two game for example, as its a small market? As i assume once the bet is taken it must be honored?

Do you know something

A_Sober_Paddy

better call saul wrote: »

Do you know something

just looking at patterns, and result sequences i have my eye on a draw bet in league 2 this weekend...looking at €150 bet

ft9

You'll have no problem getting 150 on

A_Sober_Paddy

ft9 wrote: »

You'll have no problem getting 150 on

Would you get away getting throwing down 500€

Kharrell

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

Would you get away getting throwing down 500€

Yeah, there's shouldn't be much of an issue with it, so long as there isn't a lot of irregular money on the game coming in from many other punters.

ft9

which game?

A_Sober_Paddy

ft9 wrote: »

which game?

Mansfield Stevenage

kryogen

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

Mansfield Stevenage

Mansfield are due a draw I suppose

A_Sober_Paddy

kryogen wrote: »

Mansfield are due a draw I suppose

The longest strike they had last year without a draw was 6, on average they drew a game for every 3 games they play...They've gone 9 games thus far this season...Lets hope they draw tomorrow, so i can bag 500€...I put 160€ on them to draw...fingers crossed

Warper

Whats stopping you from going into numerous shops?

whiteshorts

Whats stopping you from going into numerous shops?

For €160 you should be fine even though it is League 2.
If you were backing anything but a draw, you might had a slight problem.
Draws are the easiest thing to back in a W/D/W market.

kryogen

So what will the plan be then? Just keep backing the draw heavily till it comes in?

A_Sober_Paddy

kryogen wrote: »

So what will the plan be then? Just keep backing the draw heavily till it comes in?

Yeah i think so, i have about 1,500€ left in my betting kittie, but the way the odds are on the draw market i could reduce the bets a bit just in order to break even if it gets too ridiculous

Their next game is against Acc. Stanley who have drawn only once...surely that game has draw written all over it...

kryogen

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

Yeah i think so, i have about 1,500€ left in my betting kittie, but the way the odds are on the draw market i could reduce the bets a bit just in order to break even if it gets too ridiculous

The popular betting theory is that you need to increase your stake each time now to get ahead, do you take the opposition into the equation I forgot to ask you? Or is it just keep backing them to draw regardless?

Didn't see the game but checked the score, dunno if I can say unlucky to you considering the winning margin, but tough luck! I hope if you do go in hard again it comes off for you

A_Sober_Paddy

kryogen wrote: »

The popular betting theory is that you need to increase your stake each time now to get ahead, do you take the opposition into the equation I forgot to ask you? Or is it just keep backing them to draw regardless?

Didn't see the game but checked the score, dunno if I can say unlucky to you considering the winning margin, but tough luck! I hope if you do go in hard again it comes off for you

Well so far its been doubling the stake, but I could back the side again at 160 and if they draw at 23/10 i'd still be up I'll upload my excel tracker of the bets its easier to uunderstand...

whiteshorts

Just keep backing the draw heavily till it comes in?

Possibly the best way to go bust.
They may draw or may be due a draw but it doesn't mean it will happen or happen at any time soon.
I would compare it to something like a roulette wheel where red has come up 14 times in a row.
You might be expecting black to come in soon but it's still the same odds red or black and if you keep backing black and it doesn't come out, your wedge will soon be a small wedge.
They will draw at some stage but don't go chasing it.

Peintre Celebre

This is a dangerous way of betting and you're setting yourself up for a fall. This is called the gambler's fallacy. Just because they haven't drawn in a while and you think one is due. Each match is a separate event, the fact that a draw hasn't come up in a while by no means makes it more likely.


Kind of like a roulette table, each spin is 50/50 (assuming it's just red and black). The fact that 4 reds have come up in a row by no means means that black is more likely than 50/50 to come up the next time, though it may appear that way to an illogical bettor

A_Sober_Paddy

whiteshorts wrote: »

Possibly the best way to go bust.
They may draw or may be due a draw but it doesn't mean it will happen or happen at any time soon.
I would compare it to something like a roulette wheel where red has come up 14 times in a row.
You might be expecting black to come in soon but it's still the same odds red or black and if you keep backing black and it doesn't come out, your wedge will soon be a small wedge.
They will draw at some stage but don't go chasing it.

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

This is a dangerous way of betting and you're setting yourself up for a fall. This is called the gambler's fallacy. Just because they haven't drawn in a while and you think one is due. Each match is a separate event, the fact that a draw hasn't come up in a while by no means makes it more likely.


Kind of like a roulette table, each spin is 50/50 (assuming it's just red and black). The fact that 4 reds have come up in a row by no means means that black is more likely than 50/50 to come up the next time, though it may appear that way to an illogical bettor

Hey guys cheers for the replies, i understand were both of ye are coming from, i'm in the consolidation phase. If a team goes beyond a set number of games without a draw, i start structuring my bets just to break even. The thing with Mansfield, they aren't a team who are losing all round them or winning, they are the only team in the English league system yet to draw.

So this would suggest that a draw should be around the corner, i was chatting to a mate about this last night, he has been running a similar betting strategy for a number of years and his up quiet a bit in his time, i had a team go 11 games without a draw last year but stuck with them, but said he shouldn't have and was lucky. I am only 7 bets in, i wait until a few teams went a number of games without a draw, i'm also running Dagenham and Reds and M'Boro

I'm up 70€ and Dag and Reds and 24€ on M'Boro so 110€ profit off and investment of 103€ ...

So this weekend i'll be doing Mansfield €150 which should return 510€ and would leave my overall profit at 50€ ish, not were i'd like it to be, but its about reducing my losses at this stage and getting my bankroll back up a bit...So i'll have all my money back, while still being up 150€ not going to make me rich but its still a profit no matter how small

Bateman

I have tried to play that "system" before in the PL - you go by "teams" rather than games, so you might be doubled to €50 on Team A but €10 on Team B so you have 60 on the draw. You start from the first day of the season and the cycle for each team stops in February ie if a team draws the last week in January, your are finished with them for the season.

I soon ran out of money. The market can stay irrational for longer than...

If you have infinite funds it's a goer, otherwise the gamblers fallacy does indeed apply.

A_Sober_Paddy

Bateman wrote: »

I have tried to play that "system" before in the PL - you go by "teams" rather than games, so you might be doubled to €50 on Team A but €10 on Team B so you have 60 on the draw. You start from the first day of the season and the cycle for each team stops in February ie if a team draws the last week in January, your are finished with them for the season.

I soon ran out of money. The market can stay irrational for longer than...

If you have infinite funds it's a goer, otherwise the gamblers fallacy does indeed apply.

Well at the minute i'm at a consolidate phase, so i'm just trying to recoup my money on mansfield at the minute, as i said i 've roughly 1,400 left in my bankroll

JONJO THE MISER

Going to put a small bet for the draw tomorrow, there playing Portsmouth.

JONJO THE MISER

Portsmouth 1 Mansfield 1.

Get in, thanks to this tread i throw 50 Eur on at 3.83:D