"Cooking the books"

Crusades

How accurate are Government reporting systems?

Should we accept Government figures are Gospel? It seems to me that anything but the raw data is made available - sound-bites, press releases and asking for news articles from the various "establishment" media outlets seems to be the way we hear about the fiscal situation.

I am quite worried that politicians facing into re-election (and a SF government) are putting huge pressure on the various state agencies to "cook the books" and are putting pressure on organisations (newspapers, universities, quangos, ESRI, etc.) to put positive spin on the most modest of gains. The Irish government's manual accounting systems need to be upgraded so that the Dept. Finance and the EU can get an accurate real-time view of what's going on in the country.

Last week the OECD were warning about multinationals gaming the global tax system. The spin machine went into overdrive about how this was actually a good thing for Ireland. It's like living in East Germany the way information is fed to the RTE-watching, Irish Times-reading populace.

The wishful thinking Government desperate to keep Sinn Fein out gloss over the fact that:
- fewer people are employed by FDI companies in 2014 than in 2000
- just 40 foreign companies account for 2/3rds of all Irish exports
- indigenous exporters account for just 10% of all Irish exports
- the reputation of the IFSC is on the floor (finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028210.shtml)
- emigration is still high, yet the population is increasing (for various unpopular reasons)
- government spending is not decreasing
- Noonan got laughed at when he went cap in hand looking for a "write-down". Nothing said in media.
- etc.

Godge

Crusades wrote: »

How accurate are Government reporting systems?

Should we accept Government figures are Gospel? It seems to me that anything but the raw data is made available - sound-bites, press releases and asking for news articles from the various "establishment" media outlets seems to be the way we hear about the fiscal situation.

I am quite worried that politicians facing into re-election (and a SF government) are putting huge pressure on the various state agencies to "cook the books" and are putting pressure on organisations (newspapers, universities, quangos, ESRI, etc.) to put positive spin on the most modest of gains. The Irish government's manual accounting systems need to be upgraded so that the Dept. Finance and the EU can get an accurate real-time view of what's going on in the country.

Last week the OECD were warning about multinationals gaming the global tax system. The spin machine went into overdrive about how this was actually a good thing for Ireland. It's like living in East Germany the way information is fed to the RTE-watching, Irish Times-reading populace.

The wishful thinking Government desperate to keep Sinn Fein out gloss over the fact that:
- fewer people are employed by FDI companies in 2014 than in 2000
- just 40 foreign companies account for 2/3rds of all Irish exports
- indigenous exporters account for just 10% of all Irish exports
- the reputation of the IFSC is on the floor (finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028210.shtml)
- emigration is still high, yet the population is increasing (for various unpopular reasons)
- government spending is not decreasing
- Noonan got laughed at when he went cap in hand looking for a "write-down". Nothing said in media.
- etc.

Here are the raw statistics, tell us what is wrong with them. Otherwise this is a tinfoil-hat topic.

http://www.cso.ie/en/index.html

http://www.finance.gov.ie/what-we-do/public-finances

http://www.centralbank.ie/POLSTATS/STATS/Pages/default.aspx

Crusades

Godge wrote: »

Here are the raw statistics, tell us what is wrong with them. Otherwise this is a tinfoil-hat topic.

cso.ie/en/index.html

finance.gov.ie/what-we-do/public-finances

centralbank.ie/POLSTATS/STATS/Pages/default.aspx

Ah yes, when the spin is questioned, you're a "conspiracy theorist".

Here's a good analysis on Government sponsored news articles:

finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028192.shtml

BoJack Horseman

There is also the office of the Comptroller & auditor to run the rule over the numbers.

The EU has mechanisms to verify member states accounts (so as not to allow another Greece to occur).

So spin aside, data is data.

For Reals

Cooking the books would be too easily spotted these days.
It's the release dates and spin on them you need watch for. You'll have the current bunch singing their own praises as regards getting the finances back towards the black and not going too severe on tax increases...yet they won't draw a comparison with any of the newer charges to subsidise the tax take.

Wasn't there one some years ago were they renamed prefabs so people couldn't claim their kids had prefabs instead bricks and mortar classrooms, (pre modular I think)?

Crusades

For Reals wrote: »

Cooking the books would be too easily spotted these days.

You mean like Tesco?

BoJack Horseman

Crusades wrote: »

You mean like Tesco?

That was spotted though & doesn't appear to be fraudulent conspiracy.

If there is any aspect of Dept of Revenue/Jobs data which appears erroneous, for discussion sake I'd like to hear it.

Crusades

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That was spotted though & doesn't appear to be fraudulent conspiracy.

If there is any aspect of Dept of Revenue/Jobs data which appears erroneous, for discussion sake I'd like to hear it.

I'm not the one skewing reality. Watching Noonan spinning things in the run up to the budget is pathetic.

The EU will take a very dim view of the economic distortion that's currently underway by the Irish government and the establishment media.

The country needs to trump party politics.

BoJack Horseman

Crusades wrote: »

I'm not the one skewing reality. Watching Noonan spinning things in the run up to the budget is pathetic.

The EU will take a very dim view of the economic distortion that's currently underway by the Irish government and the establishment media.

The country needs to trump party politics.

Examples of erroneous reports/data?

Crusades

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Examples of erroneous reports/data?

Using terminology like "taking off like a rocket" to describe Ireland's economy.

Shows poor judgement and an irresponsible use of words (especially for a finance minister).

Say I have a €10k credit card debt.

The minimum payment is €400. My monthly expenses are €2,000. My monthly income is €2,000.

I get a pay rise. My monthly income goes up 4% to €2080. My expenditure goes up 2% to €2040.

So I pay €440 to VISA.

I'm "taking off like a rocket".

I think I'll go off to Europe cap in hand to see if I can get a 6 month 0% balance transfer so I can pay for the overrun in the HSE.

have2flushtwice

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Examples of erroneous reports/data?

heres an example for you BoJack,
a relative works for a leading survey company who reports into the govt.
one of the questions asked is:
do you work more than 1 hour per week?

if the answer is yes, then you are deemed to be not unemployed.
A lot of the individuals being surveyed do answer yes, but follow up with comments such id be better off by x on full social but need something to get out of the house, or
its minimum wage, if I don't do it I might loose my partial social welfare.

so working for less than what they would get on social welfare.
the survey reports will show that there is more people working, YEAH!!! due to the fear of having nothing from the social welfare. boooo. so our employment percentages are skewed. correct, but simulated by social welfare rules.
and its not just my relative who has spotted this fact. it has been raised at their team meetings, and the response is " that's the list given to us by the govt to ask. the underlying questions not answered are:
do you work greater than 15 hours a week - majority is no.
are you better working or on social welfare - no, but if the job goes I will have social welfare. I earn less this way but have security.

there you go.
if you want it backed up with fact, PM me and I will send you the name of the survey company - not putting it here.

BoJack Horseman

So, is your issue with the data or the rules by which the data is tallied?

One is not the other.

The unemployment rate is what it is based on the criteria as set down.
Sure its skewed by government schemes, but it is not false.

You can dislike the parameters, that does not make the statistics false.

Numbers are what they are, governments will always skew the narrative.
Example....
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/qnhs/quarterlynationalhouseholdsurveyquarter22014/#.VCFMYstwYm8

Those in employment up.... Great.
Labour force participation is down.... Silence.

The stat is accurate, the narrative may not be.

As I understand it most government accounting is cash rather than accruals based.

If they used accruals they could fiddle with the assumptions at the end of the year.

Cash can be fiddled with a bit by sitting on an invoice or holding off on payment.

I think that they should move to an accruals basis - for example reflecting the cost of future pensions as they are incurred and adding a pension liability to the national balance sheet.

BoJack Horseman

[Deleted User] wrote: »

or example reflecting the cost of future pensions as they are incurred and adding a pension liability to the national balance sheet.

Agreed, but no country does that.

Can you imagine if the states current pension liability (approx €400bn was added to national debt!)
Carnage.

Godge

Crusades wrote: »

Ah yes, when the spin is questioned, you're a "conspiracy theorist".

Here's a good analysis on Government sponsored news articles:

finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028192.shtml

That only questions the interpretation of the statistics, you questioned the statistics. I am still waiting for you to show us one example of the books are being cooked.

Crusades wrote: »

I'm not the one skewing reality. Watching Noonan spinning things in the run up to the budget is pathetic.

The EU will take a very dim view of the economic distortion that's currently underway by the Irish government and the establishment media.

The country needs to trump party politics.

What economic distortion? The statistics show that the economy is growing and that people are getting back to work. The tax returns also show this. Clearly and unmistakeably, this is happening.

Anyone who argues otherwise is skewing reality and should back up what they say with actual statistics.

Crusades wrote: »

Using terminology like "taking off like a rocket" to describe Ireland's economy.

Shows poor judgement and an irresponsible use of words (especially for a finance minister).

Say I have a €10k credit card debt.

The minimum payment is €400. My monthly expenses are €2,000. My monthly income is €2,000.

I get a pay rise. My monthly income goes up 4% to €2080. My expenditure goes up 2% to €2040.

So I pay €440 to VISA.

I'm "taking off like a rocket".

I think I'll go off to Europe cap in hand to see if I can get a 6 month 0% balance transfer so I can pay for the overrun in the HSE.

If you are using your example as a proxy for Ireland, your figures are way off.

have2flushtwice wrote: »

heres an example for you BoJack,
a relative works for a leading survey company who reports into the govt.
one of the questions asked is:
do you work more than 1 hour per week?

if the answer is yes, then you are deemed to be not unemployed.
A lot of the individuals being surveyed do answer yes, but follow up with comments such id be better off by x on full social but need something to get out of the house, or
its minimum wage, if I don't do it I might loose my partial social welfare.

so working for less than what they would get on social welfare.
the survey reports will show that there is more people working, YEAH!!! due to the fear of having nothing from the social welfare. boooo. so our employment percentages are skewed. correct, but simulated by social welfare rules.
and its not just my relative who has spotted this fact. it has been raised at their team meetings, and the response is " that's the list given to us by the govt to ask. the underlying questions not answered are:
do you work greater than 15 hours a week - majority is no.
are you better working or on social welfare - no, but if the job goes I will have social welfare. I earn less this way but have security.

there you go.
if you want it backed up with fact, PM me and I will send you the name of the survey company - not putting it here.

The Central Statistics Office carries out the Household Budget Survey. If it isn't them, they are not working for the government so the rest of your post doesn't matter.

If it is them, then it only matters if they have changed the methodology. If the questions are the same as three years ago when they measured unemployment at 13% and now when it is much less, then the downward trend in unemployment is accurate.

Crusades

Godge wrote: »

That only questions the interpretation of the statistics, you questioned the statistics. I am still waiting for you to show us one example of the books are being cooked.

No, I'm questioning the self-congratulatory spin. "taking off like a rocket" is a ridiculous thing for a Minister for Finance to say. Also, the sight of him off begging in Europe is pathetic. He makes up for his bumbling bluster and insecurities by demanding the Irish media tell everyone he's a great guy.

Godge wrote: »

What economic distortion? The statistics show that the economy is growing and that people are getting back to work. The tax returns also show this. Clearly and unmistakeably, this is happening.

Anyone who argues otherwise is skewing reality and should back up what they say with actual statistics.

The absolute number of jobs is going down. And the quality of jobs is going down much further (JobBridge, internships, temporary contracts, poor pensions, longer hours, etc.). Also, the numbers (and proportions) of jobs in the "good" sectors (wealth-generating, exporting sectors) are going down. Workers who are in corporate servitude (i.e. the working poor) is the fastest growing sector of the labour force. (this is also known as an increase in competitiveness)

Godge wrote: »

If you are using your example as a proxy for Ireland, your figures are way off.

2k a month is an income of 24k. Our debt is (roughly) 125% of our income, so actually, that credit card debt is more like 32k (not 10k as I originally surmised).

Godge wrote: »

The Central Statistics Office carries out the Household Budget Survey. If it isn't them, they are not working for the government so the rest of your post doesn't matter.

You think the CSO don't work for government? lol.

Godge wrote: »

If it is them, then it only matters if they have changed the methodology. If the questions are the same as three years ago when they measured unemployment at 13% and now when it is much less, then the downward trend in unemployment is accurate.

Comparing unemployment of 13% a few years ago to today is not a fair comparison. We now have jobbridge, more people than ever on disability (more money on disability) and lots more people working part-time to top up their dole to the €120 per week mark.

We are living in a Welfare State run by cronies that destined for economic failure. Long term, the best we can hope for is to re-join the Commonwealth.

Alan_P

Crusades wrote: »

No, I'm questioning the self-congratulatory spin. "taking off like a rocket" is a ridiculous thing for a Minister for Finance to say. Also, the sight of him off begging in Europe is pathetic. He makes up for his bumbling bluster and insecurities by demanding the Irish media tell everyone he's a great guy.





The absolute number of jobs is going down. And the quality of jobs is going down much further (JobBridge, internships, temporary contracts, poor pensions, longer hours, etc.). Also, the numbers (and proportions) of jobs in the "good" sectors (wealth-generating, exporting sectors) are going down. Workers who are in corporate servitude (i.e. the working poor) is the fastest growing sector of the labour force. (this is also known as an increase in competitiveness)






2k a month is an income of 24k. Our debt is (roughly) 125% of our income, so actually, that credit card debt is more like 32k (not 10k as I originally surmised).





You think the CSO don't work for government? lol.

Please cite examples of CSO statistics that are fraudulent or incorrect, and explain why they are fraudulent or incorrect.

And if the CSO works for the government, why didn't it fake all the disastrous, catastrophic figures it produced at the height of the recession and save some FF seats at the last election ?

Godge

Crusades wrote: »

No, I'm questioning the self-congratulatory spin. "taking off like a rocket" is a ridiculous thing for a Minister for Finance to say. Also, the sight of him off begging in Europe is pathetic. He makes up for his bumbling bluster and insecurities by demanding the Irish media tell everyone he's a great guy.

The absolute number of jobs is going down. And the quality of jobs is going down much further (JobBridge, internships, temporary contracts, poor pensions, longer hours, etc.). Also, the numbers (and proportions) of jobs in the "good" sectors (wealth-generating, exporting sectors) are going down. Workers who are in corporate servitude (i.e. the working poor) is the fastest growing sector of the labour force. (this is also known as an increase in competitiveness)

You think the CSO don't work for government? lol.

How rubbish like the bit in bold is allowed pass for comment is ridiculous.

http://www.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=qnq03

Absolute employment is going up. Where you get your ridiculous ideas from, I don't know.

Crusades wrote: »

Comparing unemployment of 13% a few years ago to today is not a fair comparison. We now have jobbridge, more people than ever on disability (more money on disability) and lots more people working part-time to top up their dole to the €120 per week mark.

"lots more people working part-time to top up their dole to the €120 per week mark."


Are you saying you have a problem with people on the dole having to work?????? Seriously????

BoJack Horseman

What is the point of this thread then?

OP, is your issue with government data bring erroneous or that you dislike spin?

If its the latter, the thread title is wrong.

Crusades

Godge wrote: »

How rubbish like the bit in bold is allowed pass for comment is ridiculous.

cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=qnq03

Absolute employment is going up. Where you get your ridiculous ideas from, I don't know.

Wrong.

From your own source (the CSO):

2.243 million employed in 2007. 1.254 not working in 2007.

1.901 milliion employed in Q2 2014 (down from Q1 2014). There are much greater numbers (and proportions) not working in 2014. This, despite mass emigration.

All these people are newly employed people are working in the wrong sectors and have sh*t terms & conditions.

The most important labour sectors (i.e. wealth creating and exporting sectors) are dwindling away.

Godge

Crusades wrote: »

Wrong.

From your own source (the CSO):

2.243 million employed in 2007. 1.254 not working in 2007.

1.901 milliion employed in Q2 2014 (down from Q1 2014). There are much greater numbers (and proportions) not working in 2014. This, despite mass emigration.

All these people are newly employed people are working in the wrong sectors and have sh*t terms & conditions.

The most important labour sectors (i.e. wealth creating and exporting sectors) are dwindling away.

LOL. You are criticising the current government because there are less people employed in 2014 than in 2007. Well, a little bit of history for you. FF ruined the country in 2008 and we were in bits until we got rid of them in early 2011.

Since the new government came in, there has been a steady, albeit small, increase in the number of jobs. We are not back to 2007 yet, but we are on the way there.

As for Q2 2014 being less than Q1 2014, we are looking at the unadjusted numbers. The best comparison for Q2 2014 is with Q2 2013.

Crusades

Godge wrote: »

LOL. You are criticising the current government because there are less people employed in 2014 than in 2007. Well, a little bit of history for you. FF ruined the country in 2008 and we were in bits until we got rid of them in early 2011.

Since the new government came in, there has been a steady, albeit small, increase in the number of jobs. We are not back to 2007 yet, but we are on the way there.

As for Q2 2014 being less than Q1 2014, we are looking at the unadjusted numbers. The best comparison for Q2 2014 is with Q2 2013.

Fewer.

As for criticising the government - how dare I.

Do the CSO have the capability to measure the affect of JobBridge and other jobs initiatives that rely on government support? Why are these positions bunged in with real jobs?

Do the CSO have the capability to measure deteriorating job quality? They just stick to what they've always done, yeah?

Godge

Crusades wrote: »

Fewer.

As for criticising the government - how dare I.

Do the CSO have the capability to measure the affect of JobBridge and other jobs initiatives that rely on government support? Why are these positions bunged in with real jobs?

Do the CSO have the capability to measure deteriorating job quality? They just stick to what they've always done, yeah?

What is "deteriorating job quality"? Haw can anyone measure it?

Average earnings per hour are going up (these figures would include jobbridge jobs) so how can you argue that jobs are getting worse?

Chips Lovell

Saying you think the economy will "take off like a rocket" isn't cooking the books. It's expressing an opinion. It may not be an opinion that you or I agree with, but it's an opinion nonetheless.

You've presented no evidence to suggest that the government is forcing the CSO or any other agency to publish false statistics. If it were capable of forcing the CSO to do so, why didn't it do it when all of the economic data being published was so dismal?

Nor have you presented any evidence that the government is forcing the media to present a positive opinion on economic data? How do you think this works? Does Michael Noonan ring the editor of the Irish Times with instructions on how to spin the latest GDP figures? Additionally, how come the international media takes similar lines to the Irish media on economic data? Surely the reach of the Irish government doesn't extend that far?

And, if we were really living in a regime like East Germany, how come dissenting opinions, like the piece on Finfacts you linked to, are allowed to be published? Indeed, why are you, an ordinary Irish citizen, allowed take to the internet to express your own disagreement?

The CSO publishes figures with the Live Register stats on the number of people in employment activation schemes, including JobBridge. The most recent figures are from the end of July. There were 6,333 on Jobbridge then, up from 5,488 a year earlier. This suggests that of the approximately 31,600 additional people in employment this year, 900 of them were accounted for by Jobbridge.

Crusades

Right so, Noonan and the experts at the CSO are right. Noonan's public statements are not reflective of the CSO figures you are quoting. The CSO is only one statistical indicator - there are many more that the public are not privvy to.

I guess the country's finances are safe and we've nothing to worry about. Trust our betters that everything is fine and dandy.

I've a feeling external entities will be holding the state to account over fiscal dishonesty over the coming months.

alastair

Crusades wrote: »

Right so, Noonan and the experts at the CSO are right. Noonan's public statements are not reflective of the CSO figures you are quoting. The CSO is only one statistical indicator - there are many more that the public are not privvy to.

I guess the country's finances are safe and we've nothing to worry about. Trust our betters that everything is fine and dandy.

I've a feeling external entities will be holding the state to account over fiscal dishonesty over the coming months.

Somehow I can't find it in my heart to put much faith in the the dire warnings of someone who can't acknowledge that growth in the number of jobs, is actual growth because it is lower than a figure at the height of a boom seven years ago. By the same logic, my hair isn't growing, because it's yet to equal the fringetastic excesses of Madchester 1989.

Godge

Crusades wrote: »

Right so, Noonan and the experts at the CSO are right. Noonan's public statements are not reflective of the CSO figures you are quoting. The CSO is only one statistical indicator - there are many more that the public are not privvy to.

I guess the country's finances are safe and we've nothing to worry about. Trust our betters that everything is fine and dandy.

I've a feeling external entities will be holding the state to account over fiscal dishonesty over the coming months.

Care to set a deadline for Noonan to be found out?

Remember Shane Ross and David McWilliams predicting the country would go bankrupt at the end of the week. Well, the end of the week was always another week away.

So shall we agree that if the IMF and the ECB haven't come back in and taken over by the end of the year then you were wrong?

Crusades

Godge wrote: »

Care to set a deadline for Noonan to be found out?

Remember Shane Ross and David McWilliams predicting the country would go bankrupt at the end of the week. Well, the end of the week was always another week away.

So shall we agree that if the IMF and the ECB haven't come back in and taken over by the end of the year then you were wrong?

The biggest risk facing this country is 2016.

Godge

Crusades wrote: »

The biggest risk facing this country is 2016.

care to elaborate?

Crusades

Godge wrote: »

care to elaborate?

1. The national identity crisis has been with us for over 100 years. A State-sponsored programme for historical revisionism with every organ of the State singing off the same hymn sheet isn't going to change this. We can't control our own borders, we have no military capability, we don't have our own currency and we don't make our own laws (most come from the EU nowadays). That's not a sovereign country anymore. 2016 is a national distraction and I'd say FG will steer well clear of this giant head ache by having an early election.
2. New US administration in 2016 could be very problematic for Ireland
3. Sinn Fein in government is a very real possibility

Crusades

Godge wrote: »

Anyone who argues otherwise is skewing reality and should back up what they say with actual statistics.

Can we please move beyond the dinosaurs working in the CSO reporting their survey findings as fact.

The CSO are just one of many government mouthpieces (ESRI, etc.) They know who butters their bread.

Here's what the IMF has to say...

Source: finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028148.shtml

The IMF in a report in July 2013 said that the government "prepares two sets of annual accounts which are audited and published within nine months of year-end, but neither provides a comprehensive overview of the central government finances or follows international accounting standards though they do conform with domestic legal requirements."

Monthly Exchequer returns only include part of revenues and spending; the charts of accounts for central government departments, extra-budgetary funds and other non-market agencies, local governments, and public corporations are not able to automatically generate summary fiscal data in line with international reporting standards; there is no permanent official or unit in the Irish administration responsible for setting and enforcing financial reporting standards across the public sector. As a result, there is no uniform set of accounting rule and procedures applying to government departments, extra-budgetary funds, semi-state bodies, local governments, and public corporations. "This makes consolidating government-wide financial information and promoting system-wide improvements in financial reporting practices very costly and time consuming."

Cross-departmental data with the exception of pay and pensions are not published.

How can public spending be properly monitored with this half-arsed system?

For example if the Taoiseach wished to know what the public sector (including local government) spends on information technology hardware, software and maintenance contracts, it would likely take weeks to pull the information together.

At the MacGill Summer School in July 2009, Enda Kenny, then leader of the Opposition, asked why do we have a budgetary system in place that is unfit to run a corner-shop, let alone a nation of 4m people?

Kenny has been in a position to do something about it since March 2011 and the population is now 4.6m.

Ouch.

Exports: Ministers commonly conflate exports by foreign firms into global supply chains with indigenous exports to customers that have to be won, to gloss up the narrative but this posturing from Dublin makes the hard slog of developing export markets seem relatively easy.

We estimate that almost half the €92bn in 2013 services exports were tax-related or fake. However, the official position is that rising computer services exports reflect improved "competitiveness."

Irish Economy: Ireland's ephemeral services export boom (the CSO made some slight adjustments to the 2013 data in late June)

Forty American firms account for two-thirds of Irish exports

Last February the Government issued a report [pdf] on trade. However, it was more a work of fiction than real world facts:

The report says "Ireland is a strong performer in services exports, which grew by 11% in 2012 and account for 50% of total Irish exports. This reflects the growth in ICT and e-business sectors with a number of Irish services companies and large foreign-owned multinationals operating and exporting from Ireland. Ireland is also home to the service operations of many manufacturing firms as well as financial services, leasing and computer services firms. Some important services sectors within the Irish economy include:

Ouch.

BoJack Horseman

You still haven't shown any stats that are false.

You still can't seem to distinguish data from spin.

Crusades

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

You still haven't shown any stats that are false.

You still can't seem to distinguish data from spin.

Of course you know better than the IMF.

We're almost at the next GE and Enda is still using the pen & paper ledger he inherited.

alastair

Crusades wrote: »

Of course you know better than the IMF.

We're almost at the next GE and Enda is still using the pen & paper ledger he inherited.

This would be the IMF that also said in the same report:

Ireland is approaching best practice in fiscal reporting and forecasting

Crusades

Would that be along the lines of:

A lot done. More to do?

irishelectionliterature.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/aldmtd1.jpg

alastair

Crusades wrote: »

Would that be along the lines of:

A lot done. More to do?

irishelectionliterature.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/aldmtd1.jpg

It would be more along the lines of the IMF not actually supporting this notion that the govt are falsifying any economic data, as you claim.

Crusades

alastair wrote: »

It would be more along the lines of the IMF not actually supporting this notion that the govt are falsifying any economic data, as you claim.

I'm sorry, but statements from the IMF like Ireland's (audited and published) accounts not providing "a comprehensive overview of the central government finances or follows international accounting standards though they do conform with domestic legal requirements." raises serious questions.

BoJack Horseman

Crusades wrote: »

Of course you know better than the IMF.

What I do know, if I make a claim, I at least try to back it up.

Many posts later, you have yet to do so.

Please, again..... Show us the book that is being cooked?

Crusades

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What I do know, if I make a claim, I at least try to back it up.

Many posts later, you have yet to do so.

Please, again..... Show us the book that is being cooked?

Are you a FG shill?

If you want to ignore the finfacts.ie article I linked to above, I can't help you any further.

All you have are statistics compiled by people on the public payroll. I would have to question the methodology of these CSO compulsory questionairres.

alastair

Crusades wrote: »

I'm sorry, but statements from the IMF like Ireland's (audited and published) accounts not providing "a comprehensive overview of the central government finances or follows international accounting standards though they do conform with domestic legal requirements." raises serious questions.

So much so, that the IMF, went on to conclude:

Despite the fragmentation and different basis of the source data, Ireland’s general government fiscal data are generally reliable. The Central Statistical Office (CSO) and Comptroller and Auditor General (C&AG) are independent and follow relevant EU and international standards. Summary fiscal data are subject to two of three key internal consistency checks and revisions to historical data are disclosed and relatively modest on average.

Fiscal forecasts and budgets provide a credible, detailed, and policy-oriented overview of fiscal prospects, but could provide a more comprehensive account of extra- budgetary activity, changes between forecasts, and longer-term trends.

Crusades

"generally reliable"

Phew.

I look forward to the publication of the "extra- budgetary activity". lol.

BoJack Horseman

Crusades wrote: »

Are you a FG shill?

Good start.
Yes.... The sexiest one in the land.

If you want to ignore the finfacts.ie article I linked to above, I can't help you any further.

A statement is not evidence of falsified data.....
Which again we call of you to give example of.

All you have are statistics compiled by people on the public payroll. I would have to question the methodology of these CSO compulsory questionairres.

You can question all you like.
You are saying the books are cooked, but you won't provide example of same.

Spoofer.

alastair

Crusades wrote: »

"generally reliable"

Phew.

I look forward to the publication of the "extra- budgetary activity". lol.

I note that the IMF also failed to mention any evidence of falsified accounting, cooking of books, or any of the claims that you implied they confirmed. Eh, lol.

alastair

Crusades wrote: »

All you have are statistics compiled by people on the public payroll. I would have to question the methodology of these CSO compulsory questionairres.

What's that Skippy? The IMF say what?

The Central Statistical Office (CSO) and Comptroller and Auditor General (C&AG) are independent and follow relevant EU and international standards.

Of course, you know better than the IMF. Eh, lol.

Crusades

Enda and Noonan are the biggest spoofers going. Both of them on the retirement home straight. Just have to keep it up for another couple of months.

Even if we are to believe the economic data published by the Irish government, the "improvement" is so marginal, it's nothing to be celebrating about. The establishment response to the most marginal of gains has been wildly disproportionate. Ministers making public statements about "rockets" only adds fuel to this disproportional exuberance.

Crusades

Two FG shills unquestioningly defending their betters.

Let's see how things work out for FG this time next year, shall we?

MOD: Carded earlier.

alastair

Crusades wrote: »

Two FG shills unquestioningly defending their betters.

Let's see how things work out for FG this time next year, shall we?

Your insight into posters is about as accurate as your insight into falsified govt economic data then. At least you're consistently away with the fairies!

Crusades

alastair wrote: »

Your insight into posters is about as accurate as your insight into falsified govt economic data then. At least you're consistently away with the fairies!

You keep believing in "rocket" man Noonan.

I hope he has a spare jet pack in his office. He might need it to get out of Leinster House some day.

alastair

Crusades wrote: »

You keep believing in "rocket" man Noonan.

There's only one spacer in this thread.

MOD: Carded earlier.

Victor

Deleted User wrote: »

As I understand it most government accounting is cash rather than accruals based.

If they used accruals they could fiddle with the assumptions at the end of the year.

You can only ever do that once, as you have to pay the invoices anyway.

Cash can be fiddled with a bit by sitting on an invoice or holding off on payment.

But then the matter of prompt payments kicks in - you would see from the departmental / agency accounts where this is happening.

I think that they should move to an accruals basis - for example reflecting the cost of future pensions as they are incurred and adding a pension liability to the national balance sheet.

You need to look at the different accounting standards, e.g. General Government Debt.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Agreed, but no country does that.

Actually, I think France does. As I understand it, government employee pension funds are held separate to government funds. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caisse_des_d%C3%A9p%C3%B4ts_et_consignations

Crusades wrote: »

You think the CSO don't work for government? lol.

They do, but they need to follow Eurostat's rules.

We now have jobbridge,

Are you saying these people aren't working?

We are living in a Welfare State run by cronies that destined for economic failure. Long term, the best we can hope for is to re-join the Commonwealth.

And have an overheated economy like Australia or a basket case like Nigeria?

Monthly Exchequer returns only include part of revenues and spending; the charts of accounts for central government departments, extra-budgetary funds and other non-market agencies, local governments, and public corporations are not able to automatically generate summary fiscal data in line with international reporting standards; there is no permanent official or unit in the Irish administration responsible for setting and enforcing financial reporting standards across the public sector. As a result, there is no uniform set of accounting rule and procedures applying to government departments, extra-budgetary funds, semi-state bodies, local governments, and public corporations. "This makes consolidating government-wide financial information and promoting system-wide improvements in financial reporting practices very costly and time consuming."

I'm not sure that other countries do this either.

Importantly:
* central government departments - monthly summary accounts published.
* extra-budgetary funds (constitutional office holders and the central fund, i.e. the national debt) - monthly summary accounts published.
* other non-market agencies - generally comply with their budgets, i.e. no big over or under spend within the year. Non-compliance is usually flagged once a trend is in place.
* local governments - generally comply with their budgets, i.e. no big over or under spend within the year.
* public corporations - invariably limited companies that have no real effect on the budgetary arithmetic within the year.

All the organisations publish annual accounts.

For example if the Taoiseach wished to know what the public sector (including local government) spends on information technology hardware, software and maintenance contracts, it would likely take weeks to pull the information together.

I'm not sure if Enda Kenny needs to know how much is spent on IT every month. If he needs to, there is a relatively simple dendritic procedure in place. If he really needed to know, I would expect it to be days, not weeks.

However, IT is a line item in departmental spending and all local authorities use the same accounting procedures, so annual spend is relatively clear. I don't know why anyone would want to specifically know what the monthly numbers are, as they are unlikely to be representative of the whole year anyway.

Crusades

alastair wrote: »

There's only one spacer in this thread.

There'll be a space for you at Noonan's retirement party.