Article: Crowds fail to materialise for launch of Millers Glen, Swords

The_Conductor

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/crowds-fail-to-materialise-at-launch-of-swords-development-1.1920564

Apparently the developer had a coffee and nibbles vendor organised, and expected to be swamped, on the strength of the people who camped out since Wednesday to get their chosen houses. In the end 22 people attended the launch. There are 60 homes on offer. Not so good news for the developer........

Article here:



Homes in a new housing development in north Dublin which has potential buyers queuing up since last Tuesday have gone on sale.

Some 60 houses in Millers Glen, Swords, are on offer in what is the first major housing development to go on sale in north Dublin since the property crash seven years ago.

The estate on the Glen Ellan road, has two-,three- and four-bed homes priced between €240,000 and €400,000 for sale. It is being developed by Gannon Homes as part of a major new scheme in the area.

The developers and the estate agent Sherry Fitzgerald set up portaloos, a coffee cart and security for the expected crowds, but by the time it opened just about two dozen people were in the queue to buy the houses.

The showhomes were opened early for prospective buyers and more arrived by the time the 2pm deadline for the start of sale occured. The houses are being sold on a first-come, first-served basis.

First in line Megan O’Shaughnessy said it was worth queuing since last Tuesday for one of the three bed semi-detached houses which are on sale for €289,000. She and her fiancée Rob Delaney are getting married in February.

“We were originally going for the three-bed end of terrace and there was only four of those at €279,000,” she explained.

“After that it is the three bed semi-detached which are an extra €10,000 but we decided for the future that we would go for the three bedroom semi-detached and there are only eight of them. There are a lot of people looking for the three bedroom semi-detached. I think we’ve done the right thing,” she said.

Shantelle Farrell and her boyfriend Andy Beveridge also queued from Tuesday for their first home. They are looking to buy a two bedroom house for €240,000. She did not regret queuing either. “There are a few people behind us looking for the two beds. The two beds are almost gone,” she said.

Gannon Homes has permission for up to 1,500 new homes to be built in gradual phases in the area. Millers Glen is part of phase one.

jellybear

Was there today at the launch and there were far more than 22 there. Maybe 22 per room, per house at any one time is more like it Maybe you mean only 22 purchasers? The area to put a deposit down was in one of the showhouses and there was a very long queue for deposits for the hour or so I was there so I'd imagine they did very well.

jellybear

jellybear wrote: »

.. Maybe you mean only 22 purchasers? ....

It was Ronan McGreevy who penned the article

jellybear

Don't think he wrote the op's opening part before 'article here....' and can't see any mention of 22 people in the article.

.......but by the time it opened just about two dozen people were in the queue to buy the houses.

jellybear

24, so not 22 and yes, I am being pedantic but I just don't understand the negative spin being put on a positive news story. It's a pity the reporter didn't wait around to see the crowds of people I saw at 2:05pm looks like some people just prefer a 'failure' story

Mongfinder General

Your wan pictured queueing in pyjama bottoms last Wednesday was enough to put me off having any interest.

Infoanon

jellybear wrote: »

24, so not 22. Just don't understand the negative spin being put on a positive news story. It's a pity the reporter didn't wait around to see the crowds of people I saw at 2:05pm looks like some people just prefer a 'failure' story

How can people queuing for houses be a positive story??

Has nothing been learned from the collapse ?

Mongfinder General

Infoanon wrote: »

How can people queuing for houses be a positive story??

Has nothing been learned from the collapse ?

It's very positive if you've got a vested interest, like a buy to let owner in negative equity just waiting to dump his/her load on the open market as soon as prices rise enough to get themselves out of the mess they're in.

Also the old saying of he who laughs last, laughs best. All those people who scoffed at those who bought a ppr in the boom times and rubbed it in by spouting crap like "I'm glad I waited and didn't buy" and "Property is still overvalued". Looks like they'll be renting for a long time to come.

PlanIT Computing

The_Conductor wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/crowds-fail-to-materialise-at-launch-of-swords-development-1.1920564

Apparently the developer had a coffee and nibbles vendor organised, and expected to be swamped, on the strength of the people who camped out since Wednesday to get their chosen houses. In the end 22 people attended the launch. There are 60 homes on offer. Not so good news for the developer........

Peter File

Mongfinder General wrote: »

It's very positive if you've got a vested interest, like a buy to let owner in negative equity just waiting to dump his/her load on the open market as soon as prices rise enough to get themselves out of the mess they're in.

Also the old saying of he who laughs last, laughs best. All those people who scoffed at those who bought a ppr in the boom times and rubbed it in by spouting crap like "I'm glad I waited and didn't buy" and "Property is still overvalued". Looks like they'll be renting for a long time to come.

Considering that there will be 1,500 houses in this development if it is completed, I can't imagine many buyers being too happy living in an estate that big. The houses do appear to be quality, but are overpriced. high prices for houses are of course very bad news for the economy, but of course the cheerleaders for this "recovery" conveniently ignore that fact

If I wanted to buy one of the properties I would quite likely have been very worried about the reports earlier in the week, given that only 24 (ish) were there at opening time surely there must have been little enough interest.

Now little enough interest might well be enough to sell the majority of the 60 homes.

hmmm

Mongfinder General wrote: »

All those people who scoffed at those who bought a ppr in the boom times and rubbed it in by spouting crap like "I'm glad I waited and didn't buy" and "Property is still overvalued". Looks like they'll be renting for a long time to come.

Wow, it didn't take long for the arrogance of the property owners to reassert itself. The last few years has been all about looking for the "people's NAMA" and how you had all been suckered into buying, now it's back to gloating at those who couldn't or wouldn't buy?

Mongfinder General

Mongfinder General wrote: »

..... Looks like they'll be renting for a long time to come.

Maybe not
I don't think 2015 will bring about a significant rise in property prices.

faceman

Infoanon wrote: »

How can people queuing for houses be a positive story??

Has nothing been learned from the collapse ?

What's the lesson from the crash?

Mongfinder General

hmmm wrote: »

Wow, it didn't take long for the arrogance of the property owners to reassert itself. The last few years has been all about looking for the "people's NAMA" and how you had all been suckered into buying, now it's back to gloating at those who couldn't or wouldn't buy?

Oh we're still looking for the keys to the kingdom of Nama Land. The next upheaval is pencilled in for 2017 when the mortgage interest relief gravy train splutters to stop. Who is going to subvent my mortgage then. It is an outrage that a struggling mortgage holder like me and thousands of others cannot claim this relief anymore. Oh poor me, and tens of thousands like me, whoever should we vote for...

Around about the same time, Germany and France should be getting up off their arses and started to motor again. What about the poor tracker mortgage holders struggling to deal with a 2% rise in interest rate. Shock, horror, they can't afford 8 nights out a week and 8 vacations a year anymore. The Banks will have loosened credit policy enough by then to have a strong home fire burning, they won't want that being peed on again.

Don't kid yourself, there's many a person caught up in this, much more than you think. And as for those who wouldn't buy but revelled in the schadenfreude of watching others suffer, well you should be shot with a ball of your own sh1t.

ted1

Sounds like they over hyped it and quite possibly scared off potential investors / buyers.

Mongfinder General

Augeo wrote: »

Maybe not
I don't think 2015 will bring about a significant rise in property prices.

It would need a flood of properties onto the market in sought after areas. The best you could hope for is to depress values is

1. A rise in interest rates (not going to happen)

2. Stricter Lending/Less Lending (unlikely)

3. Intervention from Government (Afraid of their fcuking lives to touch it).

gaius c

Very angry there MG but the sawn-off shotgun approach to debating means you'll pepper lots of topics with little pellets but none with headshots.

Mongfinder General

gaius c wrote: »

Very angry there MG but the sawn-off shotgun approach to debating means you'll pepper lots of topics with little pellets but none with headshots.

True story but it's that kind of topic.

Mongfinder General

Mongfinder General wrote: »

It would need a flood of properties onto the market in sought after areas. The best you could hope for is to depress values is

1. A rise in interest rates (not going to happen)

2. Stricter Lending/Less Lending (unlikely)

3. Intervention from Government (Afraid of their fcuking lives to touch it).

Well less than robust demand for the "Swords" development is contrary to what many people expected for Sep 2014 last week so I'm not at all surprised you think I'm wrong about 2015 :pac:

milltown

I think you're all missing the point here:

Shantelle Farrell and her boyfriend Andy Beveridge also queued from Tuesday for their first home.

If this ^ pair tie the knot, will she be Shandy Beveridge to her friends?
Andy and Shandy Beveridge?

Mongfinder General

Augeo wrote: »

Well less than robust demand for the "Swords" development is contrary to what many people expected for Sep 2014 last week so I'm not at all surprised you think I'm wrong about 2015 :pac:

It's Swords, not Ballsbridge. Actually, it's more out Balrothery direction which is the back of beyond. They'll sell but not as fast as the Indo led us to think.

TBH, the true value of a house is whatever you can sell it for. Plenty of gullible people out there still.

desertcircus

Mongfinder General wrote: »

It would need a flood of properties onto the market in sought after areas. The best you could hope for is to depress values is

1. A rise in interest rates (not going to happen)

2. Stricter Lending/Less Lending (unlikely)

3. Intervention from Government (Afraid of their fcuking lives to touch it).

Interest rates on variable mortgages are at least reasonably likely to go up; at least one Irish bank, as far as I remember, responded to the last ECB rate cut by increasing their variable rates in order to mitigate their losses. And every extra penny of a mortgage payment that goes on interest rather than principal means the mortgage a new buyer can afford goes down.

Mongfinder General

desertcircus wrote: »

Interest rates on variable mortgages are at least reasonably likely to go up; at least one Irish bank, as far as I remember, responded to the last ECB rate cut by increasing their variable rates in order to mitigate their losses. And every extra penny of a mortgage payment that goes on interest rather than principal means the mortgage a new buyer can afford goes down.

Link to coverage of the latest rate hike please?

The last one I know of was back in April.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/major-interest-blow-for-permanent-tsb-mortgage-customers-30229019.html

The cartel have "fixed" the variable rate at approx 4.5% for existing mortgage holders on a variable rate

Villa05

I thought with al that "pent up demand" all those houses would have sold Today

MouseTail

desertcircus wrote: »

Interest rates on variable mortgages are at least reasonably likely to go up; at least one Irish bank, as far as I remember, responded to the last ECB rate cut by increasing their variable rates in order to mitigate their losses. And every extra penny of a mortgage payment that goes on interest rather than principal means the mortgage a new buyer can afford goes down.

I wouldnt be surprised if there was a new entrant to the mortgage market in Ireland within 12 months. It will be a mixed blessing, will break the cosy 'cartel' that is there, but will could possbly inflate prices further.

NightOfTheHunt

Mongfinder General wrote: »

Link to coverage of the latest rate hike please?

The last one I know of was back in April.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/major-interest-blow-for-permanent-tsb-mortgage-customers-30229019.html

The cartel have "fixed" the variable rate at approx 4.5% for existing mortgage holders on a variable rate

ECB rate is lowest it's been in history, 0.05% since yesterday.

They'll be paying people interest on their loans if it goes much lower.

Last roll of the dice from Draghi.

While I might disagree with your general views on this issue, I am glad talk of interest rates is being discussed here. It's something which FTBs rarely consider (beyond past the first 4 - 5 years) and can have a huge impact on affordability and total repayments of a 25 - 35 year term loan.

hmmm

MouseTail wrote: »

I wouldnt be surprised if there was a new entrant to the mortgage market in Ireland within 12 months. It will be a mixed blessing, will break the cosy 'cartel' that is there, but will could possbly inflate prices further.

There's always new entrants, but the major European banks are unlikely to begin offering mortgages in Ireland. We have effectively created a non-recourse mortgage system by discouraging repossessions, so naturally interest rates are going to be high in this country in comparison to the rest of Europe - banks are even finding it hard to repossess buy-to-lets owned by wealthy property owners. The government were warned that this would happen, so they can't act all shocked now at how high interest rates are.

Mongfinder General

NightOfTheHunt wrote: »

ECB rate is lowest it's been in history, 0.05% since yesterday.

They'll be paying people interest on their loans if it goes much lower.

Last roll of the dice from Draghi.

While I might disagree with your general views on this issue, I am glad talk of interest rates is being discussed here. It's something which FTBs rarely consider (beyond past the first 4 - 5 years) and can have a huge impact on affordability and total repayments of a 25 - 35 year term loan.

An ECB rate of 5 or 6% will put a big chunk of mortgages in arrears. Barring a major shock, this is a few years away. But it could happen and with term loans of 35 and 40 years in place already, there is nowhere to hide.

Just imagine the carnage if the interest rates of the early 80's were to prevail!

D_D

Mongfinder General wrote: »

An ECB rate of 5 or 6% will put a big chunk of mortgages in arrears. Barring a major shock, this is a few years away. But it could happen and with term loans of 35 and 40 years in place already, there is nowhere to hide.

Just imagine the carnage if the interest rates of the early 80's were to prevail!

I have a general question on variable rate mortgages, which may be stupid, but I'm gonna ask it anyway... I got a small mortgage recently enough (€110,000 on a 4.25% variable rate). If the ECB rate keeps dropping like it did recently, banks begin to lose further on their tracker loans and need to make the difference up elsewhere, so could mean an increase in the variable rate loans (i.e. me paying more).

But if the ECB rate increases from its current all-time low position of 0.05%, to something more reasonable like 1% (I've no idea what's reasonable) does that mean that banks are now suddenly making money off these tracker mortgages, so potentially they can loosen their variable rates? (say a drop from 4.25% to 4.0% potentially)

Or will it be always a case for the likes of me that the variable rate will always have a threat of increasing, but never decreasing?

Sorry for the convoluted question, but it was something I wondered about. Was I foolish to take a variable rate mortgage? The reason I did so was because the amount I was borrowing was low, and a change in the rate didn't have a massive impact on the monthly repayments. The variable rate also gave me the option to overpay monthly (which I haven't availed of yet) so I could pay off the mortgage early, whereas the fixed did not give me this option...

bidiots

Mongfinder General wrote: »

An ECB rate of 5 or 6% will put a big chunk of mortgages in arrears. Barring a major shock, this is a few years away. But it could happen and with term loans of 35 and 40 years in place already, there is nowhere to hide.

Just imagine the carnage if the interest rates of the early 80's were to prevail!

Won't be a problem, just refuse to pay anything and live rent free like thousands are doing today.

2Mad2BeMad

bidiots wrote: »

Won't be a problem, just refuse to pay anything and live rent free like thousands are doing today.

the only people who are living rent free are the ones on the social welfare who are getting rent allowance, which are mostly lone parents who are actually not "alone".

This will fail. Swords was a popular place to live, but far to many pikeys live their now:pac:

washman3

Did the property cheerleaders on RTE cover this on the Six1 and 9 o'clock news tonight.
Nice to see them with a little egg on their faces...:p

BTW, in any normal society this particular developer would never be allowed build houses again, if not locked up for a very long time.!!

Mongfinder General

2Mad2BeMad wrote: »

the only people who are living rent free are the ones on the social welfare who are getting rent allowance, which are mostly lone parents who are actually not "alone".

This will fail. Swords was a popular place to live, but far to many pikeys live their now:pac:

Whereabouts are most of the piebalds based in Swords? Anything particular area that is full of scruffs?

Mongfinder General

D_D wrote: »

I have a general question on variable rate mortgages, which may be stupid, but I'm gonna ask it anyway... I got a small mortgage recently enough (€110,000 on a 4.25% variable rate). If the ECB rate keeps dropping like it did recently, banks begin to lose further on their tracker loans and need to make the difference up elsewhere, so could mean an increase in the variable rate loans (i.e. me paying more).

But if the ECB rate increases from its current all-time low position of 0.05%, to something more reasonable like 1% (I've no idea what's reasonable) does that mean that banks are now suddenly making money off these tracker mortgages, so potentially they can loosen their variable rates? (say a drop from 4.25% to 4.0% potentially)

Or will it be always a case for the likes of me that the variable rate will always have a threat of increasing, but never decreasing?

Sorry for the convoluted question, but it was something I wondered about. Was I foolish to take a variable rate mortgage? The reason I did so was because the amount I was borrowing was low, and a change in the rate didn't have a massive impact on the monthly repayments. The variable rate also gave me the option to overpay monthly (which I haven't availed of yet) so I could pay off the mortgage early, whereas the fixed did not give me this option...

It's hard to gauge exactly what the cost of funds is for Banks now. The eligible liabilities guarantee is no more so that is a big saving. Interest paid on deposits has dropped too so that's another saving. It would probably take a rise in interest rates of about 2% before trackers became viable again, maybe more. Would variable rates rise in tandem? They probably would but if Bank's really want customers off trackers then they may depress variable rates so that trackers don't look so attractive. This is unlikely though unless there is new competition in the market as Banks will ride you up the hole for as long as they can.

My advice to you is to pay as much as you can afford to overpay (Bank's hate this, they want as much interest out of you as possible). Variable rates are about the only show in town right now. Fixed rates are a total rip off but are useful if there is a threat that rates will take off.

Our opposition parties will probably make political capital out of this coming up to an election. Noonan mentioned at .25% decrease in the variable rate before he got the job he has now. I'm still waiting.

Sh1tbag OToole

NightOfTheHunt wrote: »

ECB rate is lowest it's been in history, 0.05% since yesterday.

They'll be paying people interest on their loans if it goes much lower.

Last roll of the dice from Draghi.

While I might disagree with your general views on this issue, I am glad talk of interest rates is being discussed here. It's something which FTBs rarely consider (beyond past the first 4 - 5 years) and can have a huge impact on affordability and total repayments of a 25 - 35 year term loan.

So the banks pretty much get the money for free or make it out of thin air, but a mortgage has 100x+ more interest on it than .05% so where in the almighty feck does all the money paid in interest by ordinary punters end up going?

jellybear

Just saw an update there for anyone interested- all 2 beds sold, good selection of 3 beds and two 4 beds left

gaius c

Interesting. Thought the "pent

up demand" would see the bigger houses go first. Guess their budgets must be too tight.

Sh1tbag OToole wrote: »

So the banks pretty much get the money for free or make it out of thin air, but a mortgage has 100x+ more interest on it than .05% so where in the almighty feck does all the money paid in interest by ordinary punters end up going?

Paying for the mortgages that are not being paid.

Arbiter of Good Taste

jellybear wrote: »

Just saw an update there for anyone interested- all 2 beds sold, good selection of 3 beds and two 4 beds left

I thought the whole point of the current rises in prices was pent up demand for 3 and 4 bedroom family homes?

jellybear

Don't know why you quoted me there and posed a question.
Not looking to get into a discussion was just giving a factual update.

Arbiter of Good Taste

jellybear wrote: »

Don't know why you quoted me there. Not looking to get into a discussion was just giving a factual update.

No need to be defensive. You quoted something that stated that 2 beds were sold out. My question - not necessarily for you, so no need for you to get into a discussion - was that we are being constantly told that there is pent up demand for 3 and 4 beds. I'd like to understand the apparent disconnect.

jellybear

Not being defensive, just wondering Just didn't see the point in quoting me and posing a question that's all. Suppose price had a lot to do with it as, in my opinion, the 3 and 4 beds, 4 beds in particular, seemed quite overpriced.

brooke 2

jellybear wrote: »

Just saw an update there for anyone interested- all 2 beds sold, good selection of 3 beds and two 4 beds left

Did I hear correctly yesterday that if the back garden is south facing, it will put an
extra €10,000 on the house price??

NIMAN

Of course it will, BBQs and decking !!

jellybear

brooke 2 wrote: »

Did I hear correctly yesterday that if the back garden is south facing, it will put an
extra €10,000 on the house price??

No idea. Didn't hear that myself.

MouseTail

brooke 2 wrote: »

Did I hear correctly yesterday that if the back garden is south facing, it will put an
extra €10,000 on the house price??

Interesting, south facing gardens always fetched a premium on the second hand market, this is the first time Ive heard it being priced into new homes.

jimosterberg

Mongfinder General wrote: »

It's hard to gauge exactly what the cost of funds is for Banks now. The eligible liabilities guarantee is no more so that is a big saving. Interest paid on deposits has dropped too so that's another saving. It would probably take a rise in interest rates of about 2% before trackers became viable again, maybe more. Would variable rates rise in tandem? They probably would but if Bank's really want customers off trackers then they may depress variable rates so that trackers don't look so attractive. This is unlikely though unless there is new competition in the market as Banks will ride you up the hole for as long as they can.

My advice to you is to pay as much as you can afford to overpay (Bank's hate this, they want as much interest out of you as possible). Variable rates are about the only show in town right now. Fixed rates are a total rip off but are useful if there is a threat that rates will take off.

Our opposition parties will probably make political capital out of this coming up to an election. Noonan mentioned at .25% decrease in the variable rate before he got the job he has now. I'm still waiting.

Bank of Ireland are offering a 10 year fixed rate now at 4.99%. What is people's opinion of the value of this?

mr_seer

MouseTail wrote: »

I wouldnt be surprised if there was a new entrant to the mortgage market in Ireland within 12 months. It will be a mixed blessing, will break the cosy 'cartel' that is there, but will could possbly inflate prices further.

No foreign bank wants to be anywhere near the Irish mortgage market. They are all trying to pull out (including KBC BTW). Why would any foreign bank want to lend here when they effectively cannot realise any value from the asset securing the loan in the event of default?

MouseTail

mr_seer wrote: »

No foreign bank wants to be anywhere near the Irish mortgage market. They are all trying to pull out (including KBC BTW). Why would any foreign bank want to lend here when they effectively cannot realise any value from the asset securing the loan in the event of default?

Because there will be money to be made. Bank of Scotland cleared their books of toxic loans in 2011 (loads of great bargains), and sold off the quality stuff to Certus.

Peter File

MouseTail wrote: »

Because there will be money to be made. Bank of Scotland cleared their books of toxic loans in 2011 (loads of great bargains), and sold off the quality stuff to Certus.

Are you serious?. The foreign banks left because they lost vast amounts of money.
There is very little chance of a another foreign entering the mortgage market here as it is very expensive to try to repossessive a house where payments are not being made.