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Archie's NCAA/NFL Log 2014

  • #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,719 ✭✭✭ JaMarcusHustle


    Back after a year out, and sticking with my old doubles system. Basically. 1 win will cover 2 losses and still leave a (minuscule) profit. This weekends doubles are:

    Tonight:

    Rutgers @ Washington State (-7.5)
    Ole Miss (-9.5) @ Boise State

    Rutgers defence was truly awful last year, and trecking across the country to face the Mike Leach Air Raid offence is not what they need right now. Connor Halliday was regularly attempting 50/60, even 89 pass attempts in games last year. I've no doubt Rutgers will score, but I don't trust their QB Gary Nova who is prone to really dumb turnovers. And that will make it hard for them to keep up with the Cougars who looked really competitive against better opposition last year. On the other hand, Rutgers gave up huge passing yards/points to Houston, Cincinnati, Louisville and UCF so it's hard to see them slowing down Halliday and co. I think there's too much in favour of Washington State here.

    At first I was reluctant to bet against Boise as an underdog at home on opening night, but that was before I realised the game was on neutral turf. So now I really like the Ole Miss pick here. They're just too strong for a Boise State team who are just beginning a long rebuilding process after the departure of Chris Petersen. Needless to say, this isn't the same team they were when they had Kellen Moore, Austin Pettis, Titus Young, Doug Martin etc. The stars are fewer and further between this time round. Ole Miss on the other hand have an experienced coach who has improved the program with some fantastic (relative) recruiting. The big advantage is obviously a very talented defence, and Bo Wallace has enough around him on offence to put up points (depending on which Bo Wallace shows up, that is). I'd never dream of betting against Boise a few years ago, but things change, and they are just outmatched here.

    Friday/Saturday:

    Will post my reasoning tomorrow or Saturday morning, but my doubles for the rest of the weekend are:

    Utah State (+6) @ Tennessee
    Houston (-10.5)

    Marshall (-24) @ Miami, OH
    Arkansas @ Auburn (-18.5)

    SMU @ Baylor (-32.5)
    Southern Miss @ Mississippi State (-30.5)


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Comments



  • Delighted to see you back. Best of luck. :D




  • Good luck with the log, tough break with the Rutgers game, could have gone either way but when you give up that much on the ground you are gonna be in trouble! Halliday did his part




  • SMU @ Baylor (-33) is my bet of the weekend.

    Baylor tend to cover these big home spreads early in the season. They were favoured by between -28 to -30 against Wofford for their home opener last year, they won by 66. They had the same spread against Buffalo at home the following week, - 28, and they won by 57. UL Monroe at home the next week, favoured by -30, they won by 63. A closer contest was anticipated at home to WVU the next week, favoured by -28, they covered and then some, winning by 31. 2 weeks later when hosting Iowa State, another high spread of -33, they won by 64. Two tougher home games would follow, favoured -15 against Oklahoma, they won by 29. The next week, favoured by -27 against a high scoring Texas Tech, they won by 29. Their final home game of the season, favoured -15 against Texas, they won by 20.

    The bottom line of all of this? Don't be put off by Baylor's huge spreads. They are one of the highest scoring offences in recent college football history with Bryce Petty as QB. What they lacked until recently was depth, but their recent success has improved their recruiting classes and now they have the depth, so even when the first string players get pulled as this one gets out of control, the second string players should pick up where they left off.

    As for SMU? Can't see how they keep up with Baylor. Last years leading QB? Gone. Last years leading rusher? Gone. Last years leading receiver? Gone. On the defensive side of things, also gone are their 4 leading tacklers from last year. Don't get me wrong, SMU will score. Baylor's defensive frailties are known, but I don't expect them to get more than 14/17, and Baylor should have close to 60 if not more.

    The final factor I like is that this is the first ever game in Baylor's new stadium. The atmosphere will be electric which should spur the home team on even more. I don't usually go big on single lines, particularly on opening week, but I might make an exception for this one.




  • Wow, great to see you back.

    Maybe El Horseboxo could make a comeback too.

    I was (following someone) on Louisville -3.0 pts last night.




  • Not the worst start in the world, 1 from 4 which if you kept stakes consitent would be a small overall loss?

    Very hard to pick handicaps this early in the year. I got burned badly (although I probably was lucky to get there) by Penn State's last second field goal in the game in Dublin and also by Wisconsin throwing away their massive lead against LSU.


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  • Well I've actually made a small profit as I also put a stake on Baylor to cover (post #4). Admittedly, it was not as a big a bet as I had anticipated when I typed the post. I put €10 on each double and €10 on my bet of the week - that's going to be the format for the duration of this log. Similar for NFL bets - each week I'll put on 3 NCAA Doubles, 1 NCAA Bet of the Week, 3 NFL Doubles, and 1 NFL Bet of the Week. Hopefully I start veering away from my preseason bias and put more stock in actual performances (i.e. bye bye betting on Utah State and Houston!).

    Anyway, after Week 1, here's where I stand with NCAA. I want to keep track of a pure Win/Loss record aswell as Betting Profit/Loss:

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  • Here's Week 1 NFL Picks:

    Will do a write-up tomorrow.

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  • Here's Week 1 NFL Picks:

    Will do a write-up tomorrow.

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    Yep I'm with you on your pick of the week for sure there. also the overs in that Bears game as I think both defences will struggle.

    Packers +6, Steelers -6.5, Saint -3 and New England I agree with but I'm going to take the Jets -5.5 and stay away from the Broncos game!

    Think the feel good story of Carr is clouding a few people's judegement about that Raiders game. He is still a rookie QB and going against a top 6 defence albeit with poor corner backs.

    Good picks all the same but the same as the NCAA the first week in NFL can be a graveyard with so little being known about teams! Looking forward to a few spreads on the NCAA now, what's your thoughts on Stanford vs USC??




  • Here's my NCAA pick for the week - I'll post reasoning for these and the NFL bets tomorrow, I'm just caught for time here (spent too long on the excel spreadsheet!)

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  • NCAA Write-Ups:

    Kansas State (-12): Granted, Kansas State is on the road, but I'm still convinced that -12 is a great line here. Iowa State just lost by 20 points at home to a Division 2 team. I know North Dakota State have beaten 5 FBS teams in the past 5 seasons, but Kansas State are better so I don't see why they can't win by the same margin. That's before you add in the fact that the home team/crowd will be deflated after last week's loss.

    Also, Iowa State's only relevant playmaker on offense in Quenton Bundrage tore his ACL last week. He was Iowa States leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last season, so that is a huge blow. In addition to that, their Center - who just happened to be an All Big-12 selection - sprained his MCL and while he trained in full pads yesterday, he didn't participate in the full practise and he can't be 100% for the weekend. Word is that he'll start, but I'm not sure how long he'll last. He missed a few games last year, and the Cyclones offense was brutal without him. When he went out of the game on Saturday, their production dropped from 6.8 yards a play to 3.7, and their sacks against count went from 0 to 4. They have no backup Center either, as expected backup Ben Loth tore his ACL in the spring. Not that I'd wish injury on any player, but I'm betting Kansas State in the hope that Farniok's injury will either limit his play, or his coaches will knowing how important he is for the rest of the season.

    They still have the same major issues at QB that they did last year too - Sam Richardson followed up a poor year last year with an awful performance on Saturday - and they have no real rushing threat (no Iowa State RB averaged better than 3.5 yards per carry last season). On defense, well, Iowa State had one of the worst defensive lines in the country last year. Nothing has happened to convince me it'll be any different this year. Behind the D-Line is a new, young secondary that I don't have much faith in either.

    As for Kansas State, it's hard to gauge much from their opener against Stephen F. Austin, but they scored a lot and moved the chains with ease. Jake Waters is legit dual threat QB who matches up really well against Iowa State's defense. Tyler Lockett is one of the leading receivers in the country - again, he matches up REALLY well against Iowa State's secondary, and at RB, even though Waters will take more carries than those at RB, the likes of DeMarcus Robinson and Charles Jones looked good last week. The cherry on top is of course Bill Snyder - there's not many coaches in all of college football who can match up to him. The spread here is -12, I expect Kansas State to win by at least 2 touchdowns, and it could be more once the Iowa State crowd give up on their team.

    Other Picks
    I just think that Stanford (-2) is coming a couple of weeks too soon for this young USC team. Last week was really encouraging as a Trojans fan, but Fresno State offered nothing on offense or defense. I just think the home crowd in a rivalry game gives Stanford the edge, added to the fact that they will be seeking revenge for last year. The spread is -3 so for comfort, I've gone for -2.5 to be on the safe side.

    It's very hard not to take 12 points with a defense like Michigan State (+12). They shouldn't fear anybody, and they are unbeaten in 10 games. Granted, if any offense has a chance of breaking through the Spartans, it's Oregon - but they have struggled in recent years against the elite defenses (I'm thinking in particular against LSU a few years ago, and their recent woes against Stanford). I wish I had the balls to pick Michigan State outright, but getting 12 points with that defense is too tempting to pass up.

    I know Alabama (-40) rarely cover these huge spreads, but I think they'll really want to send a message to some teams after looking almost human last week. Florida Atlantic are a horrible team and Nebraska ran up the score with ease last week. I think the combination of answering critics and it being a home opener means Alabama literally run all over them. They gave up 498 rushing yards on 57 carries against Nebraska last week, imagine what Yeldon, Henry, Drake and even Sims caan do.

    Auburn (-31) is another big spread, but I'm riding Auburn until they lose this year. I can't see San Jose State putting up near the same number of points as Arkansas did last week, but I can see Auburn scoring at ease as usual. Expecting this one to be a blowout,and Nick Marshall's backup Jeremy Johnson will see good playing time in this game. And he looked great last week so I don't expect there to be any let up.

    As for Missouri (-3.5), this line scares the hell out of me. They started as 6 point favourites, and despite being pounded by the public, they're now down to 3.5 point favourites. It's eerily similar to Vanderbilt last week who kept dropping despite being favourited by the public, and the bookies got that one right. But I'm going to be a sucker and bite. I just think Missouri are undervalued on the road despite going unbeaten on their travels last year. They were -2 at Indiana, they won by 17. They were 2 point underdogs at Vanderbilt, they won by 23. They were 12 point underdogs at Georgia, they won by 15. They were 4 point underdogs at Florida, they won by 19. They were -2 at Ole Miss, they won by 15. On the flipside, Toledo have a pretty poor record as underdogs at home. The only thing that scares me here is the line. You know the old saying, if it seems too good to be true etc.

    NFL write-ups to come later tonight.


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  • NCAA Write-Ups:

    Kansas State (-12): Granted, Kansas State is on the road, but I'm still convinced that -12 is a great line here. Iowa State just lost by 20 points at home to a Division 2 team. I know North Dakota State have beaten 5 FBS teams in the past 5 seasons, but Kansas State are better so I don't see why they can't win by the same margin. That's before you add in the fact that the home team/crowd will be deflated after last week's loss.

    Also, Iowa State's only relevant playmaker on offense in Quenton Bundrage tore his ACL last week. He was Iowa States leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last season, so that is a huge blow. In addition to that, their Center - who just happened to be an All Big-12 selection - sprained his MCL and while he trained in full pads yesterday, he didn't participate in the full practise and he can't be 100% for the weekend. Word is that he'll start, but I'm not sure how long he'll last. He missed a few games last year, and the Cyclones offense was brutal without him. When he went out of the game on Saturday, their production dropped from 6.8 yards a play to 3.7, and their sacks against count went from 0 to 4. They have no backup Center either, as expected backup Ben Loth tore his ACL in the spring. Not that I'd wish injury on any player, but I'm betting Kansas State in the hope that Farniok's injury will either limit his play, or his coaches will knowing how important he is for the rest of the season.

    They still have the same major issues at QB that they did last year too - Sam Richardson followed up a poor year last year with an awful performance on Saturday - and they have no real rushing threat (no Iowa State RB averaged better than 3.5 yards per carry last season). On defense, well, Iowa State had one of the worst defensive lines in the country last year. Nothing has happened to convince me it'll be any different this year. Behind the D-Line is a new, young secondary that I don't have much faith in either.

    As for Kansas State, it's hard to gauge much from their opener against Stephen F. Austin, but they scored a lot and moved the chains with ease. Jake Waters is legit dual threat QB who matches up really well against Iowa State's defense. Tyler Lockett is one of the leading receivers in the country - again, he matches up REALLY well against Iowa State's secondary, and at RB, even though Waters will take more carries than those at RB, the likes of DeMarcus Robinson and Charles Jones looked good last week. The cherry on top is of course Bill Snyder - there's not many coaches in all of college football who can match up to him. The spread here is -12, I expect Kansas State to win by at least 2 touchdowns, and it could be more once the Iowa State crowd give up on their team.

    Other Picks
    I just think that Stanford (-2) is coming a couple of weeks too soon for this young USC team. Last week was really encouraging as a Trojans fan, but Fresno State offered nothing on offense or defense. I just think the home crowd in a rivalry game gives Stanford the edge, added to the fact that they will be seeking revenge for last year. The spread is -3 so for comfort, I've gone for -2.5 to be on the safe side.

    It's very hard not to take 12 points with a defense like Michigan State (+12). They shouldn't fear anybody, and they are unbeaten in 10 games. Granted, if any offense has a chance of breaking through the Spartans, it's Oregon - but they have struggled in recent years against the elite defenses (I'm thinking in particular against LSU a few years ago, and their recent woes against Stanford). I wish I had the balls to pick Michigan State outright, but getting 12 points with that defense is too tempting to pass up.

    I know Alabama (-40) rarely cover these huge spreads, but I think they'll really want to send a message to some teams after looking almost human last week. Florida Atlantic are a horrible team and Nebraska ran up the score with ease last week. I think the combination of answering critics and it being a home owner means Alabama literally run all over them. They gave up 498 rushing yards on 57 carries against Nebraska last week, imagine what Yeldon, Henry, Drake and even Sims caan do.

    Auburn (-31) is another big spread, but I'm riding Auburn until they lose this year. I can't see San Jose State putting up near the same number of points as Arkansas did last week, but I can see Auburn scoring at ease as usual. Expecting this one to be a blowout,and Nick Marshall's backup Jeremy Johnson will see good playing time in this game. And he looked great last week so I don't expect there to be any let up.

    As for Missouri (-3.5), this line scares the hell out of me. They started as 6 point favourites, and despite being pounded by the public, they're now down to 3.5 point favourites. It's eerily similar to Vanderbilt last week who kept dropping despite being favourited by the public, and the bookies got that one right. But I'm going to be a sucker and bite. I just think Missouri are undervalued on the road despite going unbeaten on their travels last year. They were -2 at Indiana, they won by 17. They were 2 point underdogs at Vanderbilt, they won by 23. They were 12 point underdogs at Georgia, they won by 15. They were 4 point underdogs at Florida, they won by 19. They were -2 at Ole Miss, they won by 15. On the flipside, Toledo have a pretty poor record as underdogs at home. The only thing that scares me here is the line. You know the old saying, if it seems too good to be true etc.

    NFL write-ups to come later tonight.

    Great write ups pal. I absolutely agree with you on Alabama hurting from last week and people thinking that they are not this invincible team any more. They will be looking to re-establish their aura and I think Florida Atlantic are in for a major bashing this week.

    Stanford -2 is probably the safe pick. USC is such a talent laden team that they could easily go and win this game but I think Stanford just have a bit more experience and will get the job done.

    Kansas State was one of the teams that I wanted to follow this year along with Baylor and Auburn so I'm going to continue to show the faith with them.

    Only one other confident selection that I have on top of these picks would be Penn State -14 at home to Akron. Unless they completely believe their own hype after their Dublin win last week they should have too many guns for this Akron side and their defence should set a decent platform for the offence as they were the better side of the ball last week for them.




  • More thoughts on the Missouri line which has me so confused.

    Regarding the strange line movement on Missouri. I was just looking into their recent history on the road, well, last year at least.

    -2 @ Indiana, won by 17 points
    +2 @ Vandy, won by 23 points
    +12 @ Georgia, won by 15 points
    -14 @ Kentucky, won by 31 points
    -2.5 @ Ole Miss, won by 14
    +2.5 vs Oklahoma State (Cotton Bowl), won by 10

    Looking at some of their home games also:

    -39 vs Murray State, won by 44
    +4 vs Florida, won by 19
    -14 vs Toledo, won by 15
    -21.5 vs Arkansas State, won by 22
    -11 vs Tennessee, won by 28
    -4 vs Texas A&M, won by 7

    The only game they failed to cover was their loss to South Carolina where they were favoured by -2.5 but lost in double overtime.

    On one hand, we have a team here who are constantly undervalued by the bookies, particularly when they're on the road. Yet they constantly cover, and comfortably so. They covered on average 18 points MORE than the spread indicated last year on their travels. That's huge and I'd be very confident that no other team in the country covered to such an extent (heck I'd even be confident that no team covered that well at home, let alone on their travels).

    This should be screaming "Pick of the Year". On the other hand, the line movement has me scared stiff. It almost mirrors Vandy @ Temple last week. Vandy were favourites, the public were really heavy on them, yet the line kept dropping. It made no sense. But sure enough, Vandy got trounced by Temple. Likewise, Missouri opened at -6. They've had almost 70% of the public bets, yet it's dropped to -3.5. I keep reassuring myself with the fact that Vandy had a new head coach amongst other things, whereas Missouri have a lot more stability on that side of things. Still terrified though. On one hand, I'm so confident. On the other, it seems too good to be true. So that's why it's not my pick of the week but I'll still be keeping an eye on it.




  • The Week 1 NFL curse strikes again. That could barely have gone worse. I was worried someone here would call me out for changing my bets, as with my NFL selections above I had the Patriots as one of my picks yet in the doubles section I had the Steelers. That was a mistake on my part - I didn't put any bets on the Steelers, my doubles pick was the Patriots. Not that it matters, they both lost :o

    Still stuck with a 50% success rate in college football, determined to change that this week. I'm having most of my luck with the high spreads. Of my 7 correct picks, 6 of them have been by -9.5 or more and 5 of them have been double digit favourites. So I'm going for all favourites this weekend, though granted not all of them are huge favourites.

    Nebraska (-10) @ Fresno State
    Tulsa (1.5) @ Florida Atlantic
    Northern Illinois (-9) @ UNLV
    Rice @ Texas A&M (-31.5)
    USC (-19.5) @ Boston College
    Eastern Michigan @ Old Dominion (-14)

    I'm also waiting on Bet365 to post the Baylor spread. It's -33 at the moment which I'd be happy to take, but I presume their waiting to hear about Bryce Petty and the rest of their walking wounded. Bet of the week will be Old Dominion -14.

    Some other bets I like but haven't pulled the trigger on yet are Louisiana Tech +6.5, BYU -18.5, Central Michigan +7, Arkansas +3 and Oregon -43.5. Not including them for now but may add them to my list later in the week.




  • The Week 1 NFL curse strikes again. That could barely have gone worse. I was worried someone here would call me out for changing my bets, as with my NFL selections above I had the Patriots as one of my picks yet in the doubles section I had the Steelers. That was a mistake on my part - I didn't put any bets on the Steelers, my doubles pick was the Patriots. Not that it matters, they both lost :o

    Still stuck with a 50% success rate in college football, determined to change that this week. I'm having most of my luck with the high spreads. Of my 7 correct picks, 6 of them have been by -9.5 or more and 5 of them have been double digit favourites. So I'm going for all favourites this weekend, though granted not all of them are huge favourites.

    Nebraska (-10) @ Fresno State
    Tulsa (1.5) @ Florida Atlantic
    Northern Illinois (-9) @ UNLV
    Rice @ Texas A&M (-31.5)
    USC (-19.5) @ Boston College
    Eastern Michigan @ Old Dominion (-14)

    I'm also waiting on Bet365 to post the Baylor spread. It's -33 at the moment which I'd be happy to take, but I presume their waiting to hear about Bryce Petty and the rest of their walking wounded. Bet of the week will be Old Dominion -14.

    Some other bets I like but haven't pulled the trigger on yet are Louisiana Tech +6.5, BYU -18.5, Central Michigan +7, Arkansas +3 and Oregon -43.5. Not including them for now but may add them to my list later in the week.

    Ah don't mention the war man. Had Steelers -5.5, Saints -3, Pats -3 that all threw away massive leads and also had the Bears -6.5 and I've no idea how most of them didnt come in. Added to that I had a few horrible ones beings Jets -5.5, Broncos -7.5 and Broncos over 31.5 points that were sickening losses!

    Much better on the NCAA front with Baylor (-47), BYU (-1), Penn State (-14), Oklahoma (-24.5) that all came in but I was burned on Stanford (-2.5) and Kansas State (-12). Added to that, Bet365 refunded my bet when they were easily going to cover the -40 which was a bummer but overall up a good bit there. And then the NFL came around :(:(

    This week early doors in the NCAA i like:
    Georgia Tech (-21.5) -- They were very good against Tulane last week.
    BYU (-18.5) -- Been very impressive in their opening two games
    Ohio State (-30) -- Like Alabama last week I think they will be looking for a big statement this week after V.Tech upset them.
    Georgia (-6) -- I know S.Carolina are very good at home but I think they are not one of the better teams this year and Georgia look very good.

    Not all the lines up in the NFL yet so I'll have to take a rain check on them for the minute!




  • Week 1 in the NFL was a massacre, as it often it. No need to feel down about it at all, its not the week to go big on bets in that market.




  • Baylor worth a shot tonight?




  • For this weekend I've got:

    Auburn (-7) @ Kansas State

    Auburn keep dropping in price, they suspended their best DB, Kansas State are expecting the largest crowd in their history, and they are a home underdog on national TV. This game is getting a lot of hype and everything screams to pick Kansas State. But I'm going with Auburn, simply because they are a cover machine. They're on a run of 13-0 against the spread and are one of those teams you just ride with until you fall off. That could be tonight, but I'm much more confident that it won't be at -7 than I was at -9.5. The joker in this deck is that Auburn welcome back Sammie Coates to full fitness who could just be the best all round receiver in college football. His presence alone as a deep threat is a game changer, and his superior blocking skills suit Auburn perfectly. His return edges this one for me, and I expect Nick Marshall to have a big game.

    Texas A&M (-31.5) @ SMU

    SMU have scored 6 points this season. That's right, this season. They've been in the opponents red zone ONCE. Now, their coach has left and their starting QB is out injured. This one could get very ugly and I can see the Aggies winning by 40+ with ease. Another Heisman stat line for Kenny Trill beckons.

    Indiana @ Missouri (-13.5)

    Missouri are one of those teams who I always find are constantly undervalued, and Maty Mauk has turned out to be one of the most dangerous QBs in the SEC. He leads college football in TD passes, and has a Johnny Manziel-ness ability to keep plays alive and make plays where he has no right to. I like Missouri to establish a lead early on, and build on that through Indiana turnovers when they are forced to look for big plays, thanks to the best defensive end pairing in the nation in Shane Ray and Markus Golden. I fancy these guys to terrorise the Indiana offensive line and force some turnovers to help seal this one.

    North Carolina @ East Carolina (-2.5)

    I think this line is way, way off. East Carolina are buzzing after their big win last week, and Shane Carden is hitting form. Their air raid offence has the potential to shred NC. Let's not forget that San Diego State put up over 500 yards of offence against North Carolina, and despite 3 turnovers, NC still only won by 4 points - and that was at home. Few games in college football are decided by less than 3 points, certainly not as many as in the NFL, so I'm not worried about the line. I actually think ECU could win this by a TD or two, especially once NC get demoralised. SDSU QB Quinn Khaler went for over 300 yards against NC, imagine what Carden can do! Marquise Williams has been really poor this year for NC, just look at his stat line against lowly Liberty - 5.8 yards per attempt and as many interceptions as touchdowns. I really like this one.

    Hawaii @ Colorado (-8)

    Hawaii are a terrible road team. They're road schedule last year was: Oregon State (lost by 19), Nevada (lost by 22), UNLV (lost by 2), Utah State (lost by 37), Navy (lost by 12), Wyoming (lost by 3). They only won 1 game all season, and though they've already matched that this year, it was against the lowly Northern Iowa. Hawaii just don't travel well. They've also lost lead RB Joey Iosefa to injury which is a big loss, and their QB last year graduated. On the flip side, Colorado were very plucky at home to Arizona State and though they haven't set the world alight this year, it looks like Christian Powell is back to his best after a 100+ yard outing last week. I expect them to lean heavily on Powell for a comfortable win. This is also a 7am kick off in Hawaii, so that's a big factor.

    Northern Illinois (+13.5) @ Arkansas

    NIU are another team I'm big on this year, and there's always value to be had with them as it seems a lot of people are still in "But they lost Jordan Lynch" mode. Yeah, they did but the offence is still electric. I like Arkansas' offence, but I'm not sold on their defence and they haven't impressed me at all this year. I fancy Drew Hare to move the chains with relative ease. Arkansas also don't have a passing game, and it's hard to cover a 2 touchdown spread without a passing game. NIU are a smart team so I'm confident they won't give Arkansas any silly field position.




  • Pretty tired of going 50-50 almost every week! I'm going to sit down this evening and have a proper look at matchups rather than relying on overview-ish "X are trash, Y are much better" statements. Think I haven't put enough emphasis on previewing games rather than reviewing what the teams did last week, the week before etc.

    Initial lines I'll probably take are Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU but will post later on to confirm.




  • Pretty tired of going 50-50 almost every week! I'm going to sit down this evening and have a proper look at matchups rather than relying on overview-ish "X are trash, Y are much better" statements. Think I haven't put enough emphasis on previewing games rather than reviewing what the teams did last week, the week before etc.

    Initial lines I'll probably take are Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU but will post later on to confirm.


    Great job man. Keep up the good work and it will only be a matter of time before you blow the bookies out of the water. Best of luck man. Look forward to your write ups. :D




  • I'm sorry I haven't gotten round to posting write ups, im on my phone at the moment. But today I'm on UTEP 27.5, Colorado St 7.5, Texas St 3, Iowa St 21.5, Maryland 2.5. All underdogs!


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  • Might be onto something with this underdog algorithm if tonight's college ball is anything to go by. After I ran it for this week, I had Colorado State, Maryland and Texas State winning, with UTEP and Iowa State covering the spread whilst losing, hence my above picks. Colorado State and Maryland won, Texas State are winning (though it's very early days yet). Iowa State are still barely hanging within the spread of Baylor, but I'm not confident on that one at all given how the 1st Qtr has gone. UTEP fell just short of covering so not too far off. It also had Northwestern covering against Penn State but I didn't want to touch that one, should have followed the numbers instead of my gut! Let's see if it works for my NFL picks for tomorrow, which are are as follows:

    I have these winning outright, but taking the spread to be safe (and extra points where need be to extra safe):

    Buffalo Bills (+3) @ Houston Texans
    New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) - Currently at -3.0, so either buy the extra .5 now or wait until the public back NE prior to kickoff.
    Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - as above
    Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears
    Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (+3) - happy to take this at +3, but could go as high as +4 by kickoff
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Take the extra .5 for comfort

    I'm not confident it will yield the same results, but worth a shot. Nice picking more underdogs for a change as I don't have to fear the backdoor cover as much! :p




  • UTEP +27.5
    Colorado St +7.5
    Texas St +3
    Iowa St +21.5
    Maryland +2.5

    4-1 for the day - that's a definite improvement :)




  • Very happy with this weekend compared to the last few weeks of 50/50ish mediocrity.

    NCAA: 4-1
    NFL: 4-2

    New formula has gotten off to a flier, but I'm not naive enough to think I've found a sure thing. Seems to be a good indicator of value more than anything else as it flags more underdogs than I ever would have myself (have always preferred betting on favourites). Will of course need a larger sample size to see if this is worth leaning on long term. In the mean time, I need to input a whole weekend's worth of new data to see what it throws out next weekend. Given the time it'll take to do that in addition to the fact that underdogs are better value right before kick off, I'll post my picks at the same time next week - not long before kick off @ 5pm on Saturday. Will have the NFL picks in later that evening. Big weekend ahead with some huge, huge games :)




  • Today's NCAA picks:

    Florida (pick) @ Tennessee
    Alabama @ Ole Miss (+4.5)
    Oklahoma @ TCU (+4)
    Memphis (+3.5) @ Cincinatti
    North Texas @ Indiana (-13.5)
    Oregon State @ Colorado (+5.0)
    Nebraska (+7) @ Michigan State

    I also can't help but go with SMU @ East Carolina (-40.5). Huge spread, but one that could be covered half way through the 3rd quarter. SMU can't score and East Carolina can't stop scoring. My workings actually disagreed with this one, but one of those times where I just have to trust my gut.




  • NFL tomorrow:

    Colts @ Ravens (+3.5)
    Lions @ Bills (+7)
    Jets (+6.5) @ Chargers
    Bears (+3) @ Panthers
    Cardinals @ Broncos (-7)




  • Lovely day yesterday, going 6-1 (with 1 push). ECU were the only team that failed to cover, and as I said above that pick wasn't going off of my formula which went 6-0 with the push! Once again, I'm not naive enough to think it can predict games - but it does seem to be highlighting good value as it's gone 10-1 the last 2 weeks.
    Florida (pick) @ Tennessee WIN
    Alabama @ Ole Miss (+4.5) WIN
    Oklahoma @ TCU (+4) WIN
    Memphis (+3.5) @ Cincinatti WIN
    North Texas @ Indiana (-13.5) WIN
    Oregon State @ Colorado (+5.0) PUSH
    Nebraska (+7) @ Michigan State WIN
    SMU @ East Carolina (-40.5) LOSE




  • Very impressive, will keep an eye on this now more to see how this system works out over a decent sample size then anything else! Hope your onto something :) Great picking




  • Running late today and haven't ran as many stats as I would have liked, but of the early games, I'm going to go for:

    Northwestern @ Minnesota (-3.5)

    Will hopefully have something better for the late games.




  • For the late games:

    Oregon @ UCLA (+2)
    Penn State (+2.5) @ Michigan
    TCU (+7.5) @ Baylor
    Auburn @ Mississippi State (+3)


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  • NFL Tomorrow:

    Panthers (+7) @ Bengals
    Bears (+3.5) @ Falcons
    Ravens (-3) @ Buccaneers
    Packers @ Dolphins (+3)
    Raiders (+7)


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