August 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Time to enter the August forecast contest, with a link to the entry form below the usual guide:

1. IMT for the five stations, 1981-2010 average was 15.3

2. MAX for the met.ie stations.

3. MIN for the met.ie stations.

4. PRC (rainfall) as % of normal for the eleven stations used.

5. SUN as % of normal for the six stations used.

6. BONUS --
part 1 the number of sunny days (8.0 hours +) at Dublin A during August and
part 2 the date of the maximum amount of sunshine there.

Both parts of the bonus question will require a number in the range 1-31.

Enter by 0300h Saturday 2 August, after which we will have relaxed weekend penalties that will amount to 5% each day, but note that if you enter a date already past for the bonus, you can only score 2/5 max. ... This will not apply to on-time forecasts that mention the 1st or 2nd.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Bsal

Done.

omicron

Done

DOCARCH

Done

John mac

done

Joe Public

done

Jpmarn

Done

mickger844posts

done

okla

Done

dacogawa

Done

Harps

Done

delw

done

Tae laidir

Done.
Great Bonus Question!!

dasa29

Done

Rikand

Done

With my least confident entry this year

kindredspirit

Scraped in with 5 minutes to go. :eek:

lostinashford

Done

Fr_Dougal

Done

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts for August

FORECASTER _____________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN __ SUNNY days

omicron__________________16.5___ 27.0___5.0___080___110_____5____10
M.T. Cranium______________16.3___28.0___5.5___105___105_____9____17
Jpmarn __________________16.2___ 29.8___3.5___105___095____10____25
mickger844posts___________16.2___28.1___6.1___089___105____10____13
jd_______________________16.1___28.7___4.1___088___102____10____10
200motels________________16.0___26.9___6.0___095___110____10____14
sunflower3 ___(-5)_________15.9___29.2___6.3___090___115_____4____18
DOCARCH ________________15.8___28.3___2.8___092 ___110____12____16
Tae laidir_________________15.7___ 25.0___4.4___125 ___093_____3____27
kindredspirit______________15.6___ 26.4___3.8___085___105_____7____15
Rikand___________________15.6___ 25.8___4.0___090___120____10____24
lostinashford___(-5)________15.5___27.6___4.4___087___112____11____15

Con Sensus ______________ 15.5___26.9___4.4___097___102_____9____16

Joe Public ________________15.5___ 25.9___4.9___099___099_____8____21
TheZohan____(-5)_________15.4___28.5___3.0___150___090____15____28
dasa29 __________________15.4___27.0___5.0___100___100____20____15
Dacogawa________________15.3___26.6___3.9___105___092_____6____ 24
pauldry __________________15.3___24.7___3.1___112___094_____7____11
Bsal ____________________ 15.2___ 24.5___4.5___113___095_____5____20
okla_____________________15.1___ 26.5___4.6___120___085_____6____22
rameire__________________14.9___ 27.8___3.8___085 ___080_____4____20
john mac_________________14.9___26.3___4.7___095___102_____3____29
delw_____________________14.9___26.0__10.0___097___110____12____16
Harps____________________14.8___25.8___4.1___120___110_____6____15
________________________________________

We may get one or two more forecasts, as stated in the rules, the penalties will be lenient due to the timing of the weekend, just 5% each day (after 4th we'll have to go to double the usual rate to catch up).

This recent massive rainfall may appear to scupper many of the forecasts but note that the eleven stations used do not include Dublin, and do include four or five that saw almost no rain. I estimate that we are now sitting at 35% so nobody's forecast is entirely off the rails yet. The consensus seems to indicate a fairly warm month with the sunshine likely to improve mid to late month.

Meanwhile, take note, I will be off the internet most of the time until around the week of the 18th, so reports and updates may be a bit slow to appear. This table may not get updated especially after Monday.

Rikand

Its a pity the bonus question wasnt for valencia. Near perfect sunshine here the last 2 days

M.T. Cranium

Hello all, just had a few mins and noticed a late forecast from non-regular, sent them a PM as they don't seem to get IMT or MIN, in any case told them to resubmit if they wanted and won't count their forecast towards consensus, may also score it anecdotally for their benefit.

waterways

Do we have AUGUST?????? :eek:
It seems that I have missed something ....:pac::pac::pac:
Must be the age ... or the heat :rolleyes:?
Need to send me a PM next time to remind me ...

Jpmarn

As on the 5th Dublin airport recorded one sunny day def. over 8 hours of sunshine so far.

pauldry

it wasnt Saturday! :rolleyes:

Joe Public

waterways wrote: »

Do we have AUGUST?????? :eek:
It seems that I have missed something ....:pac::pac::pac:
Must be the age ... or the heat :rolleyes:?
Need to send me a PM next time to remind me ...

It's around the time you get your monthly tablets

Joe Public

Rikand wrote: »

Its a pity the bonus question wasnt for valencia. Near perfect sunshine here the last 2 days

Don't do Spain

Rikand

Joe Public wrote: »

Don't do Spain

haha - you know what I meant :pac:

M.T. Cranium

Just catching up, the IMT is 14.6 C, rainfall has been 155% of normal although varies from about 50% to 300% at various locations, and sunshine appears to be about 90% of normal. The bonus question so far is only 3 days above 8.0 hrs and the sunniest day so far was 11.3 hours on the 11th. That may seem low to some as there were about half a dozen more days with more than 6 hours but less than 8. Also it does not count today if that qualifies.

pauldry

It's been a showery cold sunny august in sligo n a biblical one in Dublin but sunny too

Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The bonus question so far is only 3 days above 8.0 hrs and the sunniest day so far was 11.3 hours on the 11th. That may seem low to some as there were about half a dozen more days with more than 6 hours but less than 8. Also it does not count today if that qualifies.

7.3 hours yesterday - another near miss.

pauldry

4.7c in Dublin Airport new low

Perhaps lower in Dunsany?

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

7.3 hours yesterday - another near miss.

another near miss 7.8hrs

M.T. Cranium

I think it reached 4.0 at Mountdillon on Tuesday morning. Not sure if that's the actual minimum for the month.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think it reached 4.0 at Mountdillon on Tuesday morning. Not sure if that's the actual minimum for the month.

Yes 4.0 is in the daily data for Mt. Dillon on the 19th and I think it is the minimum so far this month.

M.T. Cranium

You may have noticed a report of a minimum of 1.0 C at Shannon on Thursday but I suspect this is a data error that should be 10 or 11 C (from the hourly reports). Presumably this will be fixed by the time the MS is published.

Tae laidir

Bonus Question - Date__Hrs Sunshine Dublin Airport
pauldry________ 11___ 11.3
M.T. Cranium___ 17___ 8.7
sunflower3_____ 18___ 7.3
mickger844posts 13___ 6.7
200motels_____ 14___ 6.7
kindredspirit___ 15___ 5.8
lostinashford___ 15___ 5.8
dasa29________ 15___ 5.8
Harps_________ 15___ 5.8
Joe Public_____ 21___ 5.2
omicron_______ 10___ 5
jd____________ 10___ 5
Bsal__________ 20___ 3.7
rameire_______ 20___ 3.7
DOCARCH_____ 16___ 0.4
Con Sensus___ 16___ 0.4
delw_________ 16___ 0.4
okla_________ 22
Rikand_______ 24
Dacogawa____ 24
Jpmarn_______ 25
Tae laidir_____ 27
TheZohan____ 28
john mac_____ 29

Congrats Con :P

pauldry

2c in ballyhaise

waterways

^ ^ I don't know if my late late entry will count but 2c would be fine for me.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, I am planning to count that entry, I wasn't able to edit it into the table. The penalties were relaxed this month so you'll lose 25 points.

For the sunshine bonus, noticed another day breaking 8 hours yesterday, makes a grand total of four. How this is going to score -- 5 points for hitting correct date, 1 pt deduction for being one day off, 2 pts for 2 days off etc. For hitting any other correct date (not the max) it will be 4 pts with the same deductions on either side, except one forecast will get 5 points regardless, whoever has a correct date with the largest sunshine total of those that we manage to hit -- at the moment only 30th and 31st can come in as unscored maxes that beat 11th and allow it to qualify that way, same applies if 25th to 29th happen to beat out the 11th (which seems rather unlikely). Based on Tae laidir's version above (looked up waterways in the form, 22nd was the guess there), Pauldry has scored 5 points if the 11th holds up as the max, otherwise 4 if somebody later than today gets more than 11.3 hours on their day. Omicron and jd have 4 points or 3 if a future date has more sunshine. Mickger844posts has 3 points or 2 etc.

MTC has 4 pts for the 17th. Sunflower3 has 7 pts for the 18th and DOCARCH, delw and Con Sensus have 3 pts for the 16th. Anyone on the 15th has two points. Rikand, okla, waterways and dacogawa have 3 pts for the 22nd and 24th. Joe Public has 2 pts and 200motels likely has 2 also. Bsal and rameire have one point. Those beyond the 24th are sitting on 2,0,0,0 points going forward unless another day provides a hit to improve any of their day errors. 26th to qualify would make this 3,3,2,1 while only 30th to qualify would make this 2,1,2,3. Both qualifying but not reaching 11.3h would mean 3,3,2,3 for the final four in the list above. If 26th beats 11th then it would be 4,4,3,2 or 3. If 30th is max then only these scores can move up by one to 2,2,3,4 if 26th misses, 3,3,3,4 if 26th hits.

The other qualifying date was the 4th. Nobody took a guess anywhere near that so it's not in play. Interesting factoid -- if I had picked 7.0 hours for sunny days, then we would now be sitting at 9 days and if it had been 6.0 hours, 13 days.

As to number of days, also worth a maximum of five, the closest four will get five points, then in groups of four down the list. However, quite a few more than four will get the max if four days holds up, as there were two who guessed 4 days and a number who guessed 3 or 5. Nobody went lower than 3. So it's basically going to score in reverse order from number of days guessed. If another day qualifies and we reach five days, then the fours, fives and sixes will get the five points and the threes will join sevens with four points.

Looking at today's charts, Tuesday has an outside chance and the guidance for the last two days of the month continues to oscillate. There could end up anywhere from four to eight days but I think it will be five, maybe six. We'll see how it all works out.

M.T. Cranium

Mercy rule in force, 1.5 C at Mountdillon on Sunday morning. 18 pts to Waterways and 16 to DOCARCH, etc. Seem to recall this happening end of August in 2010, is that right? Or some other recent year.

M.T. Cranium

Any suggestions for a bonus question for September? Then I can get that thread started tomorrow perhaps.

Rikand

All ireland senior football championship on 21st september....

Max temp or/and rainfall for some station in dublin on that day ?

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, we'll go with that, thread is now open. No rush for forecasts, deadline as always 0300h 2nd (Tuesday). Is this a long weekend in Ireland as it is over here, Labour Day in Canada, and as we say, they don't want u in the USA (Labor Day).

I gather it's Electric Picnic or some such shenanigans also, could be very electric if Cristobal veers off course.

Jpmarn

There is no bank holiday this weekend. Lots of late summer festivities such as electric picnic. 1st September is the traditional back to school day. Most of the schools are inclining to come back on this last week of August.

pauldry

Think Dublin had another 8.0 hrs plus of sun today. Still one or two more possibilities with Saturday and Sunday either or both

Tae laidir

pauldry wrote: »

Think Dublin had another 8.0 hrs plus of sun today. Still one or two more possibilities with Saturday and Sunday either or both

8.2 hrs!

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring for August 2014

FORECASTER ____________IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN__BONUS(2)_____TOTALS

Confirmed final numbers_____14.0 _ 22.5 _ 1.5 _ 124 _ 133 _ 5,11th

Harps__________________ 17__14*__09*__14 __07___5__2____68
pauldry_________________12__16*__14*__11 __04___4__5____66
Bsal ___________________13__18*__07*__12 __04___5__1____60
Tae laidir________________08__15*__08*__15__04___4__3____57
okla___________________ 14__11*__06*__14 __03___5__3____56
Dacogawa_______________12__11*__11*__09 __04___5__3____55
john mac_______________ 16__12*__06*__05 __06___4__3____52
Rikand__________________09__14*__10*__04 __09___2__3____51
kindredspirit_____________ 09__12*__12*__02 __06___4__2____47
delw___________________ 16__13*__00 __06 __07___2__3_____47

Con Sensus _____________10__10*__08*__06 __06___3__3_____46

rameire_________________16__07*__12*__02 __02___5__1_____45
Joe Public _______________10__13*__05*__07 __05___3__2_____45
DOCARCH _______________07__04*__16*__04 __07___2__3_____43
TheZohan____(-5)________11__04*__15*__ 08 __05___1__4_ 47-5=42
dasa29 _________________11__09*__04*__07 __05___1__2_____39
lostinashford___(-5)_______10__08*__08*__03 __08___2__2_ 41-5=36
Jpmarn _________________03__01*__13*__09 __04___2__2_____34
200motels_______________05__10*__02*__05 __07___2__2_____33
M.T. Cranium_____________02__05*__03*__09 __06___3__4_____32
jd______________________04__03*__09*__03 __06___2__4_____31
waterways __ (-25) _______09 __09*__18*__09__05___2__3_ 55-25=30
omicron_________________00__09*__04*__01 __07___5__4_____30
mickger844posts__________03__06*__02*__03 __06___2__3_____25
sunflower3 ___(-5)________06__02*__01*__04 __08___5__3_ 29-5=24

* scored by minimum progression
-- sunshine scores are all +2 from actual scoring (nobody gains or loses)

Congrats to Harps and Pauldry for topping the charts, looks like Con Sensus had a relatively bad month so perhaps we will see an improvement in the annual scoring race which should be posted in a couple of hours or so.

Tae laidir

Dublin Airport 7.9 hrs sunshine yesterday.
Clouds drifted northwards from Croke Park late in the day!

M.T. Cranium

Okay, the monthly summary showed up, and some of my estimates were a bit off. The precip, despite being so high in the east, actually came to 124% -- it may mean a few changes and less of the mercy rule. Sunshine on the other hand -- my idea of 105% was pretty close for four stations but Belmullet and Valentia were running higher (almost twice normal) and this has bumped the average up to 133%. The max was 22.5 rather than what I said but that won't change a thing.

Having some unforeseen car troubles today which may slow down my editing of the table as it stands, would say check back late this evening and things may be sorted out by then. Probably won't get to the September tables until tomorrow at this rate.

August scoring is now final (two posts back) and working on the annual tables now (10 p.m. your time). Anyone handy with cars?

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update through August 2014

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A ___ TOTAL ___ Best 6/8 (rank)

01 _Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 _ 46 __ 550 ____ 446 (1)

01 _rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 _ 51 __ 541 ____ 439 (1)
02 _harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 _ 68 __ 536 ____ 416 (2)
03 _Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 _ 60 __ 497 ____ 403 (3)
04 _kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 _ 47 __ 481 ____ 385 (5)
05 _Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 _ 57 __ 478 ____ 394 (4)

06 _pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 _ 66 __ 474 ____ 384 (6)
07 _John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 _ 52 __ 457____ 357 (10)
08 _DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 _ 43 __ 442 ____ 361 (8)
09 _omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 _ 30 __ 439 ____ 369 (7)
10 _jpmarn _________ 61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 _ 34 __ 436 ____ 359 (9)

11 _dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 _ 39 __ 428 ____ 349 (14)
12 _waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 30 __ 424 ____ 357 (10)
13 _mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 _ 25 __ 422____ 356 (12)
14 _rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 _ 45 __ 414 ____ 328 (20)
15 _dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 _ 55 __ 410 ____ 335 (18)

16 _200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 _ 33 __ 391 ____ 320 (22)
17 _okla ___________ 59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 56 __ 391 ____ 342 (17)
18 _M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 _ 32 __ 390 ____ 333 (19)
19 _lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 _ 36 __ 383 ____ 347 (15)
20 _Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 _ --- __ 375 ____ 328 (20)


21 _Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 _ 45 __ 361 ____ 309 (23)
22 _traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ ---__ 351 ____ 351 (13)
23 _jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 _ 31 __ 346 ____ 346 (16)
24 _talkabout _______59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- _ --- _ xx __ 255
25 _nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ xx __ 236

26 _delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 _ --- _ 47 __ 227 ____ 211 (24)
27 _homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- __ 163
28 _The Zohan _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 _ 42 _ 42 __144
29 _Robxxx7 _______ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ -- _ --- _ --- __ 136
30 _seafields _______ 40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- __ 123

31 _melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- __ 104
32 _yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ --_ --- _ --- ___ 94
33 _sunflower3_____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ -- _ --- _ 24 ___ 64
33 _downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- ___64
35 _dexter647 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___55

36 _octo __________47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___47
37 _rebelcork _____ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 46
38 _drdidlittle _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- ___ 40
39 _billcarson _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 _ --- _ --- ___ 39
40 _aimsir ________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 28
_____________________________________________________________

so, we seem to be slowly catching up to Con Sensus, not much change in the order this month. ... Four seasons update next.

M.T. Cranium

Updated Four Seasons Award (summer 2014)

FORECASTER _______ Winter ___ Spring ___ Summer ___ Autumn ____ TOTAL

rikand ______________ 1 _______ 10________ 7 _______ -- _________ 18

harps_______________ 0 _______ 7 ________10 _______ -- _________ 17


Con Sensus __________ 1 _______ 10 _______ 4 _______ -- _________ 15


Bsal ________________10 _______ 3 ________ 1 _______ -- _________ 14

Jpmarn ______________ 6 _______ 6 ________ 0 _______ -- _________ 12

omicron _____________ 4 _______ 5 ________ 0 _______ -- __________ 9

pauldry______________ 7 _______ 1 ________ 1 _______ -- __________ 9

Tae laidir ____________ 3 _______ 1 ________ 4 _______ -- __________ 8

kindredspirit __________0 _______ 1 ________ 6 _______ -- __________ 7

John mac ____________ 0 _______ 0 ________ 6 _______ -- __________ 6

nilhg ________________ 5 _______ 0 ________ 0 _______ -- __________5

talkabout ____________ 0 _______ 4 ________ 0 _______ -- __________ 4

DOCARCH ____________ 0 _______ 0 ________ 3 ______ -- ___________3

traecy.1 _____________ 0 _______ 2 ________ 0 _______ -- __________ 2

waterways ___________ 2 _______ 0 ________ 0 _______ -- __________ 2

okla, lostinashford _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 2 _______ -- __________ 2

200motels, rameire ____ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 _______ -- __________ 1

dasa29 ______________ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 _______ -- __________ 1

__________________________________________________

10 pts for highest totals each season then 7,6,5,4,3,2 pts for 2nd to 7th and 1 pt for 8th, 9th or 10th. ... sometimes ties occur and people share same points ... meanwhile, Con Sensus is scored in order but that score does not affect points awarded to lower finishers each season. So Con will tie with another forecaster each time.

Summer points, as you can see from the table, went in this order:

10 -- Harps (205)

07 -- rikand (195)

06 -- John mac and Kindredspirit (176)

04 -- Con Sensus (174)

04 -- Tae laidir (170)

03 -- DOCARCH (165)

02 -- Okla and Lostinashford (163)

01 -- Pauldry (161), bsal (154) and dasa29 (151)