August 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Time to enter the August forecast contest, with a link to the entry form below the usual guide:

1. IMT for the five stations, 1981-2010 average was 15.3

2. MAX for the met.ie stations.

3. MIN for the met.ie stations.

4. PRC (rainfall) as % of normal for the eleven stations used.

5. SUN as % of normal for the six stations used.

6. BONUS --
part 1 the number of sunny days (8.0 hours +) at Dublin A during August and
part 2 the date of the maximum amount of sunshine there.

Both parts of the bonus question will require a number in the range 1-31.

Enter by 0300h Saturday 2 August, after which we will have relaxed weekend penalties that will amount to 5% each day, but note that if you enter a date already past for the bonus, you can only score 2/5 max. ... This will not apply to on-time forecasts that mention the 1st or 2nd.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Bsal

Done.

omicron

Done

DOCARCH

Done

John mac

done

Joe Public

done

Jpmarn

Done

mickger844posts

done

okla

Done

dacogawa

Done

Harps

Done

delw

done

Tae laidir

Done.
Great Bonus Question!!

dasa29

Done

Rikand

Done

With my least confident entry this year

kindredspirit

Scraped in with 5 minutes to go. :eek:

lostinashford

Done

Fr_Dougal

Done

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts for August

FORECASTER _____________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN __ SUNNY days

omicron__________________16.5___ 27.0___5.0___080___110_____5____10
M.T. Cranium______________16.3___28.0___5.5___105___105_____9____17
Jpmarn __________________16.2___ 29.8___3.5___105___095____10____25
mickger844posts___________16.2___28.1___6.1___089___105____10____13
jd_______________________16.1___28.7___4.1___088___102____10____10
200motels________________16.0___26.9___6.0___095___110____10____14
sunflower3 ___(-5)_________15.9___29.2___6.3___090___115_____4____18
DOCARCH ________________15.8___28.3___2.8___092 ___110____12____16
Tae laidir_________________15.7___ 25.0___4.4___125 ___093_____3____27
kindredspirit______________15.6___ 26.4___3.8___085___105_____7____15
Rikand___________________15.6___ 25.8___4.0___090___120____10____24
lostinashford___(-5)________15.5___27.6___4.4___087___112____11____15

Con Sensus ______________ 15.5___26.9___4.4___097___102_____9____16

Joe Public ________________15.5___ 25.9___4.9___099___099_____8____21
TheZohan____(-5)_________15.4___28.5___3.0___150___090____15____28
dasa29 __________________15.4___27.0___5.0___100___100____20____15
Dacogawa________________15.3___26.6___3.9___105___092_____6____ 24
pauldry __________________15.3___24.7___3.1___112___094_____7____11
Bsal ____________________ 15.2___ 24.5___4.5___113___095_____5____20
okla_____________________15.1___ 26.5___4.6___120___085_____6____22
rameire__________________14.9___ 27.8___3.8___085 ___080_____4____20
john mac_________________14.9___26.3___4.7___095___102_____3____29
delw_____________________14.9___26.0__10.0___097___110____12____16
Harps____________________14.8___25.8___4.1___120___110_____6____15
________________________________________

We may get one or two more forecasts, as stated in the rules, the penalties will be lenient due to the timing of the weekend, just 5% each day (after 4th we'll have to go to double the usual rate to catch up).

This recent massive rainfall may appear to scupper many of the forecasts but note that the eleven stations used do not include Dublin, and do include four or five that saw almost no rain. I estimate that we are now sitting at 35% so nobody's forecast is entirely off the rails yet. The consensus seems to indicate a fairly warm month with the sunshine likely to improve mid to late month.

Meanwhile, take note, I will be off the internet most of the time until around the week of the 18th, so reports and updates may be a bit slow to appear. This table may not get updated especially after Monday.

Rikand

Its a pity the bonus question wasnt for valencia. Near perfect sunshine here the last 2 days

M.T. Cranium

Hello all, just had a few mins and noticed a late forecast from non-regular, sent them a PM as they don't seem to get IMT or MIN, in any case told them to resubmit if they wanted and won't count their forecast towards consensus, may also score it anecdotally for their benefit.

waterways

Do we have AUGUST?????? :eek:
It seems that I have missed something ....:pac::pac::pac:
Must be the age ... or the heat :rolleyes:?
Need to send me a PM next time to remind me ...

Jpmarn

As on the 5th Dublin airport recorded one sunny day def. over 8 hours of sunshine so far.

pauldry

it wasnt Saturday! :rolleyes:

Joe Public

waterways wrote: »

Do we have AUGUST?????? :eek:
It seems that I have missed something ....:pac::pac::pac:
Must be the age ... or the heat :rolleyes:?
Need to send me a PM next time to remind me ...

It's around the time you get your monthly tablets

Joe Public

Rikand wrote: »

Its a pity the bonus question wasnt for valencia. Near perfect sunshine here the last 2 days

Don't do Spain

Rikand

Joe Public wrote: »

Don't do Spain

haha - you know what I meant :pac:

M.T. Cranium

Just catching up, the IMT is 14.6 C, rainfall has been 155% of normal although varies from about 50% to 300% at various locations, and sunshine appears to be about 90% of normal. The bonus question so far is only 3 days above 8.0 hrs and the sunniest day so far was 11.3 hours on the 11th. That may seem low to some as there were about half a dozen more days with more than 6 hours but less than 8. Also it does not count today if that qualifies.

pauldry

It's been a showery cold sunny august in sligo n a biblical one in Dublin but sunny too

Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The bonus question so far is only 3 days above 8.0 hrs and the sunniest day so far was 11.3 hours on the 11th. That may seem low to some as there were about half a dozen more days with more than 6 hours but less than 8. Also it does not count today if that qualifies.

7.3 hours yesterday - another near miss.

pauldry

4.7c in Dublin Airport new low

Perhaps lower in Dunsany?