Government too busy trying to halt the rise of Sinn Fein to run country properly

Good loser

yopy wrote: »

Nice admission from Rabbitte that Labour just told us what we wanted to hear. And we bought it. And when they broke their promises, we did sweet FA as always.

That's absolutely NOT what Pat Rabbitte said in that clip. VB has corrected numerous people on this very point. Go listen again.

goose2005

Arthur Beesley wrote: »

And I bet he still doesn't know the VAT rate down south.

He should piss off back to where he came from.

Ireland?

DazMarz

Rest assured, Sinn Féin will not be in government following 2016. It has become blatantly apparent from looking around the country following the local elections that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are getting closer and closer to one another (in fairness, they are two cheeks of the same arse). They will form a coalition in 2016, along with the remnants of Labour, any Greens who might get elected and a few Independents.

In order for Sinn Féin to force themselves into government, they will need to be at around 30/40 seats in the Dáil. Even at that, if Fine Gael don't lose too many seats, if Fianna Fáil manage to get to 30 seats or so and if Labour hold about 10 seats, that should be enough to form a coalition for them. They might not need straggling Greens or Independents.

The current make up of the Dáil is as follows:

FG: 70
Lab: 34
FF: 20
SF: 14
Others (incl. Ceann Comhairle): 28

Fine Gael will still have north of 55/60 seats following 2016. Labour will be cut severely, but will still probably maintain about 10 or so seats. Fianna Fáil could stagnate at 20, but will probably gain a few, putting them at 25 or so. Sinn Féin will gain, but will do very well to get to 30 seats, and probably won't.

Going on those numbers (FG 60, FF 25, Lab 10) that is enough to secure a majority, albeit a thinner one than currently exists. However, this is bearing in mind that the Dáil will be reduced from 166 seats to 158 at the next general election.

The current legal position is that the Dáil must be dissolved no later than Tuesday 9 March 2016, and the next general election must take place no later than Saturday 3 April 2016. However, it could come sooner than that. I don't think it will, but if the budget this October does not pass, there could be a general election in November.

I have no doubt that Sinn Féin will poll well, but they will struggle to get 2 candidates elected in any 1 constituency, due to their transfer toxicity and splitting the vote should there be 2 candidates. I do not think that, regardless of what the other parties do or do not do, Sinn Féin will win enough seats in the next General Election to force themselves into power.

This begs the question, however, do Sinn Féin REALLY want to get into power? Or would they rather continue to sit on the fence and snipe at everything? If they got into power (and it would only be via a coalition with FG/FF that this would happen), their core voters would see this as a betrayal, they would be a minority partner in government, would either go the way of Labour or pull out of government very rapidly and so on. I don't think they genuinely want to get into power (unless it was with an overall majority, which is not happening). I think they would prefer to play the victim card, keep sniping in opposition and continue to keep saying how much better they would run things, without ever having to put their money where their mouth is.

If it should come to pass that FG and FF go into coalition together, for the very first time in Irish politics there will be a clear left/right divide in the Dáil. Since the foundation of the state, the two major political parties have traditionally been, obviously, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Both of them have strikingly similar ideologies, core supporters, positions, etc. They are both centre-right parties (despite what Fianna Fáil might have said at various times). It was strange when you considered other countries; the divide between the two biggest political parties was usually the left/right divide.

All of that said, the General Election in 2016 (or whenever it will be) will be one of the most interesting in living memory. Quite simply put, absolutely anything could happen. I've said what I think will happen. But who knows. I could be completely wrong. I personally feel it will be some variation of FG/FF/Lab/misc., but it genuinely could swing any way.

K-9

SF doubling their numbers and becoming the main opposition party would be exactly what they want, and what they should do. It's what Labour should have done the last time.

DazMarz

K-9 wrote: »

SF doubling their numbers and becoming the main opposition party would be exactly what they want, and what they should do. It's what Labour should have done the last time.

Precisely. I don't see them getting to 30 seats, but even doubling their seat total to circa 28 seats would be massive for them.

Labour... dear, oh dear. They had the best opportunity of any political party in Irish history had they been able to see 5 minutes in front of their own faces. Had they stayed out of government and had they gone into opposition, the position they would now find themselves in would be phenomenal.

Labour won 31 seats at the 2011 Election. Had they gone into opposition, it would have forced FG/FF into coalition then. Labour would have been a crushing opposition party to that coalition. Labour's support would have skyrocketed. They would easily have taken north of 50 seats at the next election had they stayed out of government in 2011. They would have crippled both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in doing so.

However, they did not... and they find themselves in the position of being toxic and unpopular and will be lucky to retain a third of their seats.

K-9

DazMarz wrote: »

Precisely. I don't see them getting to 30 seats, but even doubling their seat total to circa 28 seats would be massive for them.

Labour... dear, oh dear. They had the best opportunity of any political party in Irish history had they been able to see 5 minutes in front of their own faces. Had they stayed out of government and had they gone into opposition, the position they would now find themselves in would be phenomenal.

Labour won 31 seats at the 2011 Election. Had they gone into opposition, it would have forced FG/FF into coalition then. Labour would have been a crushing opposition party to that coalition. Labour's support would have skyrocketed. They would easily have taken north of 50 seats at the next election had they stayed out of government in 2011. They would have crippled both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in doing so.

However, they did not... and they find themselves in the position of being toxic and unpopular and will be lucky to retain a third of their seats.

I don't know if FF would have gone in but I'd say there was enough of like minded/wheeler dealer independent TD's to get a Government. Wouldn't have been as stable but it would have been the right thing for Labour.

SF have problems with transfers but they definitely aren't as toxic as before. The locals showed people are sick of the 3 traditional parties with 50% of the electorate voting elsewhere. Obviously a GE is different but there's a significant disaffected vote that would have voted for the old big 3, looking for something different. They got 10% last time, they should be looking at 17/18% definitely. They'll top the poll in a lot of constituencies but will find it hard to get 2nd TD's in, except in strongholds.

A lot depends on what FF do, they should be getting 35-40 seats, if they take a hard no coalition line SF might be pressurised into going into Govt.

FTA69

Sinn Fein's plan is to try and force FF/FG into coalition in order to leave them as an opposition. They are probably hoping that Labour will rebuild (which it will due to the union base and its attractiveness to liberal minded, 3rd level educated people etc) and for the independents to cluster together in some shape or form. They hope to spearhead a left alternative.

DazMarz

K-9 wrote: »

I don't know if FF would have gone in but I'd say there was enough of like minded/wheeler dealer independent TD's to get a Government. Wouldn't have been as stable but it would have been the right thing for Labour.

SF have problems with transfers but they definitely aren't as toxic as before. The locals showed people are sick of the 3 traditional parties with 50% of the electorate voting elsewhere. Obviously a GE is different but there's a significant disaffected vote that would have voted for the old big 3, looking for something different. They got 10% last time, they should be looking at 17/18% definitely. They'll top the poll in a lot of constituencies but will find it hard to get 2nd TD's in, except in strongholds.

A lot depends on what FF do, they should be getting 35-40 seats, if they take a hard no coalition line SF might be pressurised into going into Govt.

Possibly... but I think FF would get into bed with Satan himself if it meant getting into power. But maybe I'm a bit too harsh!

SF will need to do something rapidly, because I honestly think that if they do not do something major for 2016, they will be suddenly reaping diminishing returns subsequent to that. As the economy normalises again, unemployment falls and things start to pick up, SF's raison-d'etre will suddenly shrink. The protest vote will begin to evaporate and less-hardline parties will grow again. They might get up to the magic 20% of the vote this time around, but will struggle to get there again (barring another economic meltdown).

SF are still transfer toxic, and many of the more rural, conservative minded people may not vote FF/FG/Lab, but they would most certainly never vote SF. Dublin will return a lot of SF, the rest of the country less of them. I think even in strongholds they will struggle to get 2 in, unless they can get their voters to vote strategically (as happened in Bray, Co. Wicklow, at the last local election; perennial favourite John Brady knew he was getting elected regardless, so he openly encouraged people to vote for his running mate, Oliver O'Brien, to ensure that both got elected).

An awful lot of people are going back to Fianna Fáil at this moment; it is staggering, but not surprising.

Bear in mind, Fine Gael and Labour still have another 18 months or so before crunch time. They can do a lot in those 18 months to try and shore up votes and protect seats. The keyboard warriors on the like of TheJournal.ie and so on will wail about it, but the vocal minority doesn't get people elected. The silent majority do.

Add in, the PR-STV system leads to a skewing of perception. For sure, SF might cream a huge percentage of 1st preferences... but that may not necessarily translate very well into actual seats (as evidenced in the Local Elections).

As I maintain, however, whatever happens... this is going to be one hell of an interesting General Election!

K-9

Martin seems to be hinting at coalition, I don't know if he'll have the power to carry it after the next GE, he's doing an ok job but not much more than that.

I can see SF getting close to 30, I do think the anti-SF vote is still there but it's mainly diehards from FG and FF. I'd say most of the undecideds just wouldn't be as hard line against SF as before and that will see a big increase in their vote.

I'd say their ceiling normally would be 12/13%, but the disaffected Labour support from 2011 in particular would have no major problem voting for them. They got an increase of 10% last time, that vote is very much up for grabs.

Kunkka

DazMarz wrote: »

Rest assured, Sinn Féin will not be in government following 2016. It has become blatantly apparent from looking around the country following the local elections that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are getting closer and closer to one another (in fairness, they are two cheeks of the same arse). They will form a coalition in 2016, along with the remnants of Labour, any Greens who might get elected and a few Independents.

In order for Sinn Féin to force themselves into government, they will need to be at around 30/40 seats in the Dáil. Even at that, if Fine Gael don't lose too many seats, if Fianna Fáil manage to get to 30 seats or so and if Labour hold about 10 seats, that should be enough to form a coalition for them. They might not need straggling Greens or Independents.

The current make up of the Dáil is as follows:

FG: 70
Lab: 34
FF: 20
SF: 14
Others (incl. Ceann Comhairle): 28

Fine Gael will still have north of 55/60 seats following 2016. Labour will be cut severely, but will still probably maintain about 10 or so seats. Fianna Fáil could stagnate at 20, but will probably gain a few, putting them at 25 or so. Sinn Féin will gain, but will do very well to get to 30 seats, and probably won't.

Going on those numbers (FG 60, FF 25, Lab 10) that is enough to secure a majority, albeit a thinner one than currently exists. However, this is bearing in mind that the Dáil will be reduced from 166 seats to 158 at the next general election.

The current legal position is that the Dáil must be dissolved no later than Tuesday 9 March 2016, and the next general election must take place no later than Saturday 3 April 2016. However, it could come sooner than that. I don't think it will, but if the budget this October does not pass, there could be a general election in November.

I have no doubt that Sinn Féin will poll well, but they will struggle to get 2 candidates elected in any 1 constituency, due to their transfer toxicity and splitting the vote should there be 2 candidates. I do not think that, regardless of what the other parties do or do not do, Sinn Féin will win enough seats in the next General Election to force themselves into power.

This begs the question, however, do Sinn Féin REALLY want to get into power? Or would they rather continue to sit on the fence and snipe at everything? If they got into power (and it would only be via a coalition with FG/FF that this would happen), their core voters would see this as a betrayal, they would be a minority partner in government, would either go the way of Labour or pull out of government very rapidly and so on. I don't think they genuinely want to get into power (unless it was with an overall majority, which is not happening). I think they would prefer to play the victim card, keep sniping in opposition and continue to keep saying how much better they would run things, without ever having to put their money where their mouth is.

If it should come to pass that FG and FF go into coalition together, for the very first time in Irish politics there will be a clear left/right divide in the Dáil. Since the foundation of the state, the two major political parties have traditionally been, obviously, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Both of them have strikingly similar ideologies, core supporters, positions, etc. They are both centre-right parties (despite what Fianna Fáil might have said at various times). It was strange when you considered other countries; the divide between the two biggest political parties was usually the left/right divide.

All of that said, the General Election in 2016 (or whenever it will be) will be one of the most interesting in living memory. Quite simply put, absolutely anything could happen. I've said what I think will happen. But who knows. I could be completely wrong. I personally feel it will be some variation of FG/FF/Lab/misc., but it genuinely could swing any way.

This is the most spot on post I've seen on what will probably happen in the next general election . I also think SF will learn from Labour's mistakes and sit in opposition while trying to become an overall majority over the next 10+ years. Why wouldn't they?