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Who's doing what?

  • 25-06-2014 1:34pm
    #1
    Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,545 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    With the news today that the CSO index is showing Dublin prices up over 22% in a single year, I'm curious as to what people who currently in the market are feeling...

    With the way things are going, I am... 71 votes

    ... going to bail out of this insanity and wait for another crash or never buy..
    0% 0 votes
    ... going to adjust my expectations downwards and go all in to get a property whatever the cost
    100% 71 votes


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,146 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    (C) Didn't get involved first time round, but due to changed personal circumstances, and mainly the mess that is the private rental sector (with no sign of it EVER being taken seriously), have decided that in the medium-long term, buying is really the only option in this country :(

    Ironic eh?.. Those who don't want/need to "get on the property ladder" are ultimately forced into it because of the knock-on effects the herd mentality has on other options


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭Caliden


    Kaiser2000 wrote: »
    (C) Didn't get involved first time round, but due to changed personal circumstances, and mainly the mess that is the private rental sector (with no sign of it EVER being taken seriously), have decided that in the medium-long term, buying is really the only option in this country :(

    Ironic eh?.. Those who don't want/need to "get on the property ladder" are ultimately forced into it because of the knock-on effects the herd mentality has on other options

    It's got to a point where rental prices are going above and beyond what you would be paying for a decent 25 year mortgage.

    People may say "oh but you're then stuck with a 25 year debt" but if you continue to work in Dublin (realistically speaking the majority of people will) you are still stuck with a constant debt that is rent without any security.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭jay0109


    I stopped viewing about 6 months ago as too many people showing up at them and most had offers over asking there and then.
    Houses that were going 450k in SCD around late 2011 are now asking 650k+, and it just makes no financial sense to jump in at those levels especially if only 1 can work while the OH is at home with kids- and who wants their young kids going to creche/child minders after a day in school or having to let themselves in if old enough to do so. Thats just not worth it

    So am prepared to sit this out and it either blows up again in the next 2 years or so, or I'll move out to the sticks and commute in by train. But I'm not spending 3/4's of a mill on a 1,500sq ft semi-d in an average estate, in a country with a national debt of Sudan!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,570 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Caliden wrote: »
    It's got to a point where rental prices are going above and beyond what you would be paying for a decent 25 year mortgage.
    That is actually the normal situation for rental in Ireland. You pay a premium to rent over purchasing. It has only been the other way for a very short time. It is one of the reasons why Ireland has such a desire to own a property, historically it has been cheaper to buy.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 971 ✭✭✭Senecio


    Needs another selection in the poll

    - Stopped looking on Daft/MyHome. Now looking on Zillow.

    Just the small matter of getting a work transfer.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,261 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    just took a look at some of the asking prices on daft, I have said it before and will say it again, anyone who had the ability to buy and didnt 1.5-2 years ago, was out of their mind and has seriously f**cked up. LOL at the prices now compared to then, they have nearly doubled in some cases.

    I wasnt and still am not in a position to buy, but when decent semi d houses in D.14 were going for a tad over 300k, if I had the ability to buy, that would have been it, whatever if prices dropped another bit...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,570 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    just took a look at some of the asking prices on daft, I have said it before and will say it again, anyone who had the ability to buy and didnt 1.5-2 years ago, was out of their mind and has seriously f**cked up. LOL at the prices now compared to then, they have nearly doubled in some cases.
    In fairness it was difficult to get a mortgage and a lot of job insecurity going about. Things haven't changed that much but at the end of this year the removal of CGT exemption will not be there so investment may suddenly stop.

    It is a all still a risk but the new assumption seems to be that property price rises mean a bubble and can only mean that when the reality is prices dropped too much in a very similar way to a bubble.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,040 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    just took a look at some of the asking prices on daft, I have said it before and will say it again, anyone who had the ability to buy and didnt 1.5-2 years ago, was out of their mind and has seriously f**cked up. LOL at the prices now compared to then, they have nearly doubled in some cases.

    I wasnt and still am not in a position to buy, but when decent semi d houses in D.14 were going for a tad over 300k, if I had the ability to buy, that would have been it, whatever if prices dropped another bit...

    Question is though if you're in a position to buy now should you.....comprimise and leave Dublin or hope the SCD prices come back a bit.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,261 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Question is though if you're in a position to buy now should you.....comprimise and leave Dublin or hope the SCD prices come back a bit.
    There would always be the option of compromising on the property i.e. 3/4 bed semi to 3 bed terrace or simply move from the likes of D.4>D.6, D.14>D.12, D.16>D18 etc. Leaving Dublin all together wouldnt be something I would personally entertain when I am in a position to buy... Or wait for new builds to come on the market, at least with them you dont have all the messing around with, "oh well the vendor wont take that or X other bid has been lodged"... then again it depends if these are going to come on-stream in your area...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭who_me


    Haven't seen the source of that figure, but would be curious what the nationwide figure is; I'd imagine it's still fairly stagnant outside of Dublin? If so, that must make it a nightmare setting economic policy - the city with ~25% of the population overheating and the rest of the country seeing little or no growth.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,053 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    who_me wrote: »
    Haven't seen the source of that figure, but would be curious what the nationwide figure is; I'd imagine it's still fairly stagnant outside of Dublin? If so, that must make it a nightmare setting economic policy - the city with ~25% of the population overheating and the rest of the country seeing little or no growth.
    This is actually a common problem globally. Just look at our nearest neighbour where interest rates are totally out of kilter between London and the regions. In Germany there are definitely bubbles forming in the likes of Munich but many regions are experiencing depopulation and property price falls. It'll always be a balancing act for most countries.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,648 ✭✭✭desertcircus


    I can't find it now, but there was an analysis of figures done recently that indicated that when you allowed for changes in average earnings, taxation levels and the end of tracker mortgages being offered, an average house in Dublin on a 25-year term costs the same per month now as it did in 2006.

    Even aside from that, 22% rises in Dublin just seem utterly deranged. That's a figure that should be setting off alarm bells; it's simply not sustainable. Assuming prices right now are at 55% of the peak, we'd hit about 66% by summer 2015, 80% by summer 2016, and a return to credit-fuelled, tracker-led, Ponzi-scheme peak prices by the autumn of 2017. 22% is, I think, a faster annual growth rate than we had during the peak of the bubble - except without banks lending to any great extent, new tracker mortgages having vanished off the face of the earth, virtually zero wage growth for the last five years, a population growth rate that's barely breaking even and a huge cohort of the next generation of buyers having emigrated. Something has to give (the effect of the end of the CGT exemption in December on the 50+% of the market comprised of cash buyers being a serious potential banana skin), and when it does, the question is whether it merely spikes growth or triggers further falls.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭jay0109


    I can't find it now, but there was an analysis of figures done recently that indicated that when you allowed for changes in average earnings, taxation levels and the end of tracker mortgages being offered, an average house in Dublin on a 25-year term costs the same per month now as it did in 2006.

    Even aside from that, 22% rises in Dublin just seem utterly deranged. That's a figure that should be setting off alarm bells; it's simply not sustainable. Assuming prices right now are at 55% of the peak, we'd hit about 66% by summer 2015, 80% by summer 2016, and a return to credit-fuelled, tracker-led, Ponzi-scheme peak prices by the autumn of 2017. 22% is, I think, a faster annual growth rate than we had during the peak of the bubble - except without banks lending to any great extent, new tracker mortgages having vanished off the face of the earth, virtually zero wage growth for the last five years, a population growth rate that's barely breaking even and a huge cohort of the next generation of buyers having emigrated. Something has to give (the effect of the end of the CGT exemption in December on the 50+% of the market comprised of cash buyers being a serious potential banana skin), and when it does, the question is whether it merely spikes growth or triggers further falls.
    Lack of mortgage affordability now rivals the bubble era
    http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/mortgage-affordability-ireland-2014-1533195-Jun2014/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,705 ✭✭✭✭Tigger


    jay0109 wrote: »
    I stopped viewing about 6 months ago as too many people showing up at them and most had offers over asking there and then.
    Houses that were going 450k in SCD around late 2011 are now asking 650k+, and it just makes no financial sense to jump in at those levels especially if only 1 can work while the OH is at home with kids- and who wants their young kids going to creche/child minders after a day in school or having to let themselves in if old enough to do so. Thats just not worth it

    So am prepared to sit this out and it either blows up again in the next 2 years or so, or I'll move out to the sticks and commute in by train. But I'm not spending 3/4's of a mill on a 1,500sq ft semi-d in an average estate, in a country with a national debt of Sudan!

    National debt of Sudan is only 36billion


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭jay0109


    I was being sardonic!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭kennyb3


    jay0109 wrote: »

    Except the figures are fudged as discussed here by esselte and bml.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭jay0109


    kennyb3 wrote: »
    Except the figures are fudged as discussed here by esselte and bml.

    Some would say that they are fudged alright, but in both directions. The very conservative purchase price of 161k used in his workings for example.
    Not too many bunfights right now over properties in that price region


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭kennyb3


    jay0109 wrote: »
    Some would say that they are fudged alright, but in both directions. The very conservative purchase price of 161k used in his workings for example.
    Not too many bunfights right now over properties in that price region

    I think it's a fact he fudged the figures not an opinion tbh.

    No doubt in both directions - but it renders the article pointless unless the correct statistics are used to actually analyse what he is attempting to.

    Even if affordability was exactly equal I'd much prefer a smaller capital on the loan to repay than a large amount. Much easier to pay back 400k (on 4.5% SRV) than 600k (tracker) if you come into inheritance/want to repay earlier.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭jay0109


    kennyb3 wrote: »
    I think it's a fact he fudged the figures not an opinion tbh.

    No doubt in both directions - but it renders the article pointless unless the correct statistics are used to actually analyse what he is attempting to.

    Even if affordability was exactly equal I'd much prefer a smaller capital on the loan to repay than a large amount. Much easier to pay back 400k (on 4.5% SRV) than 600k (tracker) if you come into inheritance/want to repay earlier.

    Give it another 12 months Kennyb with those 20%+ rises, and you'll be getting close to that 600k capital on the 4.5% SRV ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭kennyb3


    jay0109 wrote: »
    Give it another 12 months Kennyb with those 20%+ rises, and you'll be getting close to that 600k capital on the 4.5% SRV ;)

    Hopefully the market will cool off - I'm not sure when, or by how much but it's pretty evident things can't go on like that.

    Affordability at present in a lot of Dublin locations is shocking, just not quite as shocking as 2007 yet.

    anyway I only posted to point out the inaccuracies in that article.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 470 ✭✭Mr.McLovin


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    In fairness it was difficult to get a mortgage and a lot of job insecurity going about. Things haven't changed that much but at the end of this year the removal of CGT exemption will not be there so investment may suddenly stop.

    It is a all still a risk but the new assumption seems to be that property price rises mean a bubble and can only mean that when the reality is prices dropped too much in a very similar way to a bubble.

    I don't think the bottom overshot as people expected action taken against people not paying their mortgage or at least the BTLs and there would have been a presumption even in the media that prices would have bounced along 'the bottom' for some time, which it probably should have.

    I reckon the CGT has people over optimistic the same way MIR end had. The reality is there is a small pool of buyers in our economy that are doing well but there is a smaller pool of houses available and until that levels out they'll just keep competing for the same houses, in turn raising the prices.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,689 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    just took a look at some of the asking prices on daft, I have said it before and will say it again, anyone who had the ability to buy and didnt 1.5-2 years ago, was out of their mind and has seriously f**cked up. LOL at the prices now compared to then, they have nearly doubled in some cases.

    I wasnt and still am not in a position to buy, but when decent semi d houses in D.14 were going for a tad over 300k, if I had the ability to buy, that would have been it, whatever if prices dropped another bit...

    So true. If only we knew at the time that was the bottom. I think we all expected things like the introduction of the Property Price Register, ending of MIR, repossessions, etc to have an effect and make prices drop even further, but that didn't happen. I myself was a price-rise denier on here when certain posters here we're telling us prices were rising. Turns out they were right.

    Not at you directly Idbatterim, but are prices really so crazy now? They're not at "bottom" prices, but nor are they at "boom" prices either. Ignoring the current rises, and the price of houses when we were at the bottom, could you say prices at the moment at a normal level?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,146 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Not at you directly Idbatterim, but are prices really so crazy now? They're not at "bottom" prices, but nor are they at "boom" prices either. Ignoring the current rises, and the price of houses when we were at the bottom, could you say prices at the moment at a normal level?

    No they're not because you can't take them in isolation.

    You have to remember the ass fell out of the rest of the economy too - wage cuts, massive job losses, extra taxation and a cost of living that didn't really drop all that much either.

    Despite what Enda and co would have us believe, the "recovery" - if there even is one! - is extremely fragile. We still have a massive problem with mortgage arrears, huge unemployment, banks still aren't really lending, SME's are still in trouble (saw a report today that over 40% of SME loans are in arrears) and of course we still have water charges on the way and another massive budget adjustment (whether it's 800 million, or 2 billion it's still coming out of an already delicate economy).

    The current prices are being driven by limited supply and cash-rich buyers IMO - people who cashed out with generous redundancy packages back in 2009/2010 - but neither is sustainable long term.

    The difference this time is that when it crashes again, it'll be "real" money that's lost not the "free money"/endless credit of the Good Times :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,261 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    So true. If only we knew at the time that was the bottom. I think we all expected things like the introduction of the Property Price Register, ending of MIR, repossessions, etc to have an effect and make prices drop even further, but that didn't happen. I myself was a price-rise denier on here when certain posters here we're telling us prices were rising. Turns out they were right.

    Not at you directly Idbatterim, but are prices really so crazy now? They're not at "bottom" prices, but nor are they at "boom" prices either. Ignoring the current rises, and the price of houses when we were at the bottom, could you say prices at the moment at a normal level?

    the thing is, where the bottom was, was never going to be obvious until a few months if not a year or so later. It isnt an exact science. The logic was, why buy when prices keep dropping, I will wait for them to hit bottom, that way, yeah they might rise a few percent, but better than another potential 10-15% fall if I buy now. Problem was / is, the prices didnt creep back up, they jumped up and secondly, there is virtually no supply.
    The current prices are being driven by limited supply and cash-rich buyers IMO - people who cashed out with generous redundancy packages back in 2009/2010 - but neither is sustainable long term.

    The difference this time is that when it crashes again, it'll be "real" money that's lost not the "free money"/endless credit of the Good Times

    Public servants are retiring every year and getting generous tax free lump sums, people are also getting inheritances or gifts from parents, or as part of a couple are on fairly serious salaries, anyone thinking this is going to run out of steam or change are in for serious disappointment IMO.

    People mostly middle aged lost their shirts on shares, the old saying "safe as houses" leads me to believe that this is where more so than ever, this time around, people will be investing their wealth and speculating... I mean look how quick the turnaround has been, biggest bust in the history of the state and we are back to square one 5/6 years later...

    One thing is for sure, being gun ho can cost you a lot of money, so can being overly cautious!
    Not at you directly Idbatterim, but are prices really so crazy now? They're not at "bottom" prices, but nor are they at "boom" prices either. Ignoring the current rises, and the price of houses when we were at the bottom, could you say prices at the moment at a normal level?
    I wouldnt say they are crazy, the problem is a huge amount of people want to live in an area with a landmass of what % of the state? .5% maybe? these are the people with money, virtually no supply. I mean yeah it looks crazy / sick compared to what they were going for 18-24 months ago. Lets say prices rise 10% on average for another 4 years. At that stage they would be at boom prices, less 10% deposit, you wouldnt be in negative equity IF they dropped 50% from now, also you would factor in 4 years worth of repayments. There are a lot of ifs and buts, but one thing is for sure, if you are paying rent, that will be X amount for sure over the next X years. It also depends on if you are going to be paying market rent or like some fortunates, have had your rent frozen for years and are paying well below it. There are so many factors...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,917 ✭✭✭✭iguana


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    The logic was, why buy when prices keep dropping, I will wait for them to hit bottom, that way, yeah they might rise a few percent, but better than another potential 10-15% fall if I buy now.

    I'm not sure that was the logic. There are certain ways of calculating the actual value of a property and, apart from the occasional rarity, prices in Dublin never came close to value. And if you were buying with a mortgage, buying an overpriced house while interest rates are still so very, very low is incredibly foolhardy, risky behaviour. A lot of people who are now derided for missing the bottom, were just being prudent and sensible.

    Our perception of what property is actually worth is still warped by the boom. I'm sale agreed on a house in Limerick and if it all goes through I'll be paying a price that as far as I can work out is value. It's not a bargain, not what I believe the bottom should/will be, as traditionally bottoms go below value, just what it's probably worth. Yet I can't help but feel that it's 'cheap' because despite what I know about value, emotionally, I'm still swayed by peak prices.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    It's spreading to the commuter towns, as I predicted, they're the next ones to see jumps, as people realise that dream of the 3 bed semi in Dublin 14 is further out of reach. Had a conversation with a guy in work who's doing just that after seeing what he can get an hour outside Dublin as opposed to an hour spent crossing the city.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,261 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    I'm not sure that was the logic. There are certain ways of calculating the actual value of a property and, apart from the occasional rarity, prices in Dublin never came close to value. And if you were buying with a mortgage, buying an overpriced house while interest rates are still so very, very low is incredibly foolhardy, risky behaviour. A lot of people who are now derided for missing the bottom, were just being prudent and sensible.

    Our perception of what property is actually worth is still warped by the boom. I'm sale agreed on a house in Limerick and if it all goes through I'll be paying a price that as far as I can work out is value. It's not a bargain, not what I believe the bottom should/will be, as traditionally bottoms go below value, just what it's probably worth. Yet I can't help but feel that it's 'cheap' because despite what I know about value, emotionally, I'm still swayed by peak prices.

    a house is worth what someone is prepared to pay for it. There is no way you can put a figure on this house should be worth exactly this...
    It's not a bargain, not what I believe the bottom should/will be, as traditionally bottoms go below value, just what it's probably worth
    yes at this moment in time, if it goes up by 10% next year, I'm sure if you put it up on the market, that the potential purchaser would feel that its not a bargain, but that is the current market value at the time. No point in looking back and saying houses were 50k in 1994 or whatever, what has that go to do with anything?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,570 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    The Spider wrote: »
    It's spreading to the commuter towns, as I predicted, they're the next ones to see jumps, as people realise that dream of the 3 bed semi in Dublin 14 is further out of reach. Had a conversation with a guy in work who's doing just that after seeing what he can get an hour outside Dublin as opposed to an hour spent crossing the city.
    It's not like it was a genius prediction more like inevitable nature.

    What people are failing to predict is commuting by car into Dublin will just continue to get more difficult and expensive.

    Congestion charges will come in at some point it is just a matter of time. Petrol will be more expensive. The further out you are the more likely the space between you and the city will become housing making commutes longer.

    The people who live in Dublin will get hacked off soon enough. We have to pay higher property tax and that money is used for areas outside Dublin while our streets are full of cars from people who decided they wanted bigger houses in a more rural setting. Look at the traffic of Dublin at think is it reasonable that all the cars taking up the roads should be there considering they only move 35% of the commuters. It is simply idiotic waste of resources.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,261 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    I agree ray and thats why its about time those idiots in power got their act together and get the ball rolling on metro north and DU as soon as possible. It will allow for higher densities, increase the property tax take, open up new sites, reduce congestion, pollution etc...


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    It's not like it was a genius prediction more like inevitable nature.

    What people are failing to predict is commuting by car into Dublin will just continue to get more difficult and expensive.

    Congestion charges will come in at some point it is just a matter of time. Petrol will be more expensive. The further out you are the more likely the space between you and the city will become housing making commutes longer.

    The people who live in Dublin will get hacked off soon enough. We have to pay higher property tax and that money is used for areas outside Dublin while our streets are full of cars from people who decided they wanted bigger houses in a more rural setting. Look at the traffic of Dublin at think is it reasonable that all the cars taking up the roads should be there considering they only move 35% of the commuters. It is simply idiotic waste of resources.

    Well the N11 is being upgraded, as soon as that's done petrol costs will go down, motorway driving and all that, there's always the train which I've taken many times, and that's an easy trip in, you can also drive as far as greystones and get the dart, again easy.

    As for Dublin people being hacked off? doesn't matter all citizens have the right to travel to whatever part of the country they want.
    For people not to commute then businesses need to be spread out across the country, you can hardly complain if there's only one centre of decent jobs in the entire country and people decide to commute to those jobs?

    What would happen if they decided to move to Dublin instead, there's already lack of supply of housing for both rental and buying, rents and prices increase further.

    Agree about metro north, needs to be sorted out, swords road is a nightmare in the morning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭jay0109


    Spider

    where does the withdrawal of the early investors/bottom feeders (Wilbur Ross and Kennedy Wilson for example) fit into your theory?

    By my reckoning, we'll now see the amateur investor pile in as they start to realise (too late) that there's money to be made. So it seems we're well on the way to another bust


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    jay0109 wrote: »
    Spider

    where does the withdrawal of the early investors/bottom feeders (Wilbur Ross and Kennedy Wilson for example) fit into your theory?

    By my reckoning, we'll now see the amateur investor pile in as they start to realise (too late) that there's money to be made. So it seems we're well on the way to another bust

    Those guys got in made big gains and now they're out. I take from the statement online that they maybe may not make as big gains in the future, but who knows? Plenty of people sold apple shares and in hindsight they were ridiculously cheap when they sold them.

    Can't realistically see it busting unless supply is increased and it would have to be major, over 15'000 houses probably in the past I would have said in areas that people want to live, but I think we're past that now and as long as it was in Dublin people would buy them.

    Amateur investors may indeed pile in, the returns on rent alone will make you a profit, and there's still plenty of apartments (northside) around the 160 mark, mortgage would more than likely be around 6-700 depending on deposit, rent'll come in between 1150 and 1250, so there's reason right there, I'd be more cautious on southside apartments.

    Like I say though demand is beating supply at the moment, and that's why people are moving outside, example house in Ballymoney for sale currently at 150'000 in the boom those houses were 450'000 plus, if we are heading back towards recovery then buying that house now would be a wise move.

    If we crash not so wise, but again I can't see it unless there's a way for all the people who want houses in Dublin to get them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,040 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    The Spider wrote: »
    If we crash not so wise, but again I can't see it unless there's a way for all the people who want houses in Dublin to get them.

    But what is different now about Dublin supply and demand, as apposed to 20 years ago. Why has SCD suddenly become unaffordable to those without hundreds of thousands in cash?

    3 bed semi D in D16 now €0.5m - how is that sustainable ffs.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,012 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    The Spider wrote: »
    Can't realistically see it busting unless supply is increased and it would have to be major, over 15'000 houses probably in the past I would have said in areas that people want to live, but I think we're past that now and as long as it was in Dublin people would buy them.

    15,000 properties. I wonder how many properties there are in the greater Dublin region who haven't paid a cent towards their mortgage in 3+ years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    15,000 properties. I wonder how many properties there are in the greater Dublin region who haven't paid a cent towards their mortgage in 3+ years.

    That old chestnut, seriously if you're relying on that, good luck.

    Don't worry about what other people are doing, worry about what you should be doing.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    But what is different now about Dublin supply and demand, as apposed to 20 years ago. Why has SCD suddenly become unaffordable to those without hundreds of thousands in cash?

    3 bed semi D in D16 now €0.5m - how is that sustainable ffs.

    What's different is that for the past seven years more or less, is that no one was selling their houses, and people weren't looking to buy them because prices were dropping.

    No one is going to se their house and not cover the price of it. No one in negative equity is going to sell especially if they're servicing the mortgage.

    So you have years of no one selling, and now people see prices rising so they want to buy.

    Prices still aren't high enough for people to sell who bought in 2005-2007.

    Prices are still too low for people to downsize and have money to live off of.

    The only way for these people to sell their houses is for price increases.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 202 ✭✭Dredd_J


    My sister was in negative equity for years and had her house for sale because she wanted to take the hit and move back to the homestead. She used to stay awake nights worrying if she could sell her house and only have a shortfall of a 100k or so. She was so worried about eventually being under for 200k if she waited. Of course the house wouldnt sell at what she was asking and didnt sell.

    She just announced to me a couple weeks ago. "House has gone up in value. Lots of bids coming in now, way above the price it would take to get out of negative equity. No need to sell now. Taking it off the market. All happy again."

    How things change.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    15,000 properties. I wonder how many properties there are in the greater Dublin region who haven't paid a cent towards their mortgage in 3+ years.

    15000 a year is nonsense anyway. You get about 2.5 people per modern house. So that's about 40,000 a year growth in Dublin, almost ½ million in a decade.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    It looks to me that daft is growing supply fairly rapidly.

    I'd say wait. Last time that happened the bust followed at a lag of about 6 months.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    The Spider wrote: »
    That old chestnut, seriously if you're relying on that, good luck.

    Don't worry about what other people are doing, worry about what you should be doing.

    What other people should be doing is getting kicked out of the houses they can't afford rather than forcing those of us who could afford their houses to rent.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    What other people should be doing is getting kicked out of the houses they can't afford rather than forcing those of us who could afford their houses to rent.[/


    Worrying about the deals that other people have done with banks etc, is none of your business, if you're worried about it buy a house and don't pay the mortgage.

    Not something I'd like worrying every time the phone rings.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭jay0109


    The Spider wrote: »
    What other people should be doing is getting kicked out of the houses they can't afford rather than forcing those of us who could afford their houses to rent.[/


    Worrying about the deals that other people have done with banks etc, is none of your business, if you're worried about it buy a house and don't pay the mortgage.

    Not something I'd like worrying every time the phone rings.

    None of 'our business' - if only:mad:
    We're all paying for these deals....I refer you to the USC column on your pay slip!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    jay0109 wrote: »
    The Spider wrote: »

    None of 'our business' - if only:mad:
    We're all paying for these deals....I refer you to the USC column on your pay slip!

    Either way nothing I can do about it, and nothing you can do either. I see we're back to talking about repossessions, that's been discredited, it won't provide supply either rental or otherwise.

    Now you can stand around and yell about the injustice of it all, or try and carve out your own piece if the pie, because that's what everyone else is doing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭jay0109


    Such strong, bullish talk.....reminds me so much of a few years back.
    The next 3 years will tell the story one way or the other I reckon


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    Hi folks. Watching Dublin house prices from England. Does anyone else think that there may be a link between London (up 18% in year) and Dublin prices. In particular, if London pops, will Dublin?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    jay0109 wrote: »
    Such strong, bullish talk.....reminds me so much of a few years back.
    The next 3 years will tell the story one way or the other I reckon

    Nah stood out of the first bubble it was obvious what it was, bought at the bottom in 2012 outside Dublin, bargain price happy with the house and a very low mortgage.

    I know I sound bullish but if you met me any time up to 2007 I would have been the biggest bear you'd meet.

    This time around its a supply issue, brought on by lack of building and people not selling in negative equity, for seven years.

    If you think we're 2 years into price rises that leaves five years to resolve the issues around supply, until that's done prices will keep going up, in Dublin at least, could still go through the floor outside.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭jay0109


    Hi folks. Watching Dublin house prices from England. Does anyone else think that there may be a link between London (up 18% in year) and Dublin prices. In particular, if London pops, will Dublin?

    It will defo affect confidence in the Dublin market, and may cause a blip at least for a couple of months


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    jay0109 wrote: »
    It will defo affect confidence in the Dublin market, and may cause a blip at least for a couple of months

    Is overseas investment cash (e.g. Chinese, Singaporean, Russian) a factor in Dublin demand? It is in London and there are reports that it is elsewhere in GB - money that can't afford London goes to middle class suburban Birmingham. If the cash flows reverse, it may be a big factor in a fall in prices. Another factor is that Sterling is now looking a better bet that the Euro, so if you're are investment inflows, that may divert them away (or rather reduce the current trend) from Ireland.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,012 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    Hi folks. Watching Dublin house prices from England. Does anyone else think that there may be a link between London (up 18% in year) and Dublin prices. In particular, if London pops, will Dublin?

    Pretty much everything I had read has implied London is in the mother of all property bubbles, fueled to a huge extent by foreign investment and a powerhouse of a financial sector. I don't think there is anywhere in the world right now that could be compared to London.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    Pretty much everything I had read has implied London is in the mother of all property bubbles, fueled to a huge extent by foreign investment and a powerhouse of a financial sector. I don't think there is anywhere in the world right now that could be compared to London.

    True, but when London property catches a cold, it will spread a long way I think. Just not sure whether it will extend to Dublin.


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