Ebola Virus "beyond our control" in West Africa

Azwaldo55

The medical group Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) which is involved in a desperate struggle to contain the dreaded Ebola virus in West Africa have announced the outbreak is "beyond our control."

Hundreds have died across West Africa in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The outbreak was first discovered in February and has steadily worsened and its geographical spread as alarmingly widened. At the moment the World Health Organisation (WHO) has not yet recommended trade and travel restrictions however a conference is scheduled in Ghana for early July.

Ebola is an extremely contagious virus hemorrhagic fever with a 90% death rate among the infected. The initial symptoms of the virus are typical flu like symptoms such as chills, sore throat, severe headache, weakness, joint pain, muscle pain, and chest pain. However as it progresses the symptoms get worse resulting in nausea and vomiting, diarrhea (may be bloody), red eyes, raised rash, chest pain and cough, stomach pain, severe weight loss, bleeding from the nose, mouth, rectum, eyes and ears. Death occurs due to multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) due to fluid redistribution, hypotension, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and focal tissue necroses. From infection to death can take a little as ten days.

Were the virus to spread outside of West Africa to the rest of the Africa continent, to the Middle East, Asia, Europe and the Americas the results would be global catastrophe that would wipe out most of humanity.

http://time.com/2913079/doctors-without-borders-ebola/

snubbleste

Eh, repost
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057174793&page=5

eamonnq

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

Were the virus to spread outside of West Africa to the rest of the Africa continent, to the Middle East, Asia, Europe and the Americas the results would be global catastrophe that would wipe out most of humanity.

http://time.com/2913079/doctors-without-borders-ebola/

Yeah, but it won't.

Azwaldo55

eamonnq wrote: »

Yeah, but it won't.

And why not? The virus has a 90% death rate.

TwoShedsJackson

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

And why not? The virus has a 90% death rate.

And that's why it'll most likely not spread - it kills too fast, and most people in the area have neither the means nor the desire to travel elsewhere.

For a disease to spread globally it would need to be both highly infectious and have a relatively long incubation time.

Azwaldo55

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

And why not? The virus has a 90% death rate.

Not lessening the seriousness of the virus but that death rate is in 3rd world countries with terrible health care facilities. In a first world county with access to proper healthcare facilities I'd imagine that death rate would reduce significantly.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Aren't we all supposed to be dead from bird flu by now?

scudo2

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Aren't we all supposed to be dead from bird flu by now?

Na.
Swine flue got a court injunction to stop it spreading scaremongering rumors.

Azwaldo55

Beckham Flat Vaporizer wrote: »

Not lessening the seriousness of the virus but that death rate is in 3rd world countries with terrible health care facilities. In a first world county with access to proper healthcare facilities I'd imagine that death rate would reduce significantly.

There is no cure. The only way to stop it spreading is to quarantine the infected and pray that nobody from West Africa carrying the virus travels on an international flight infecting fellow passengers who in turn infect a crowded airport before spreading the virus to hundreds of thousands and then tens of millions.

eamonnq

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

And why not? The virus has a 90% death rate.

because they are having a conference about it in early July, viruses hate conferences.

The Dagda

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

There is no cure. The only way to stop it spreading is to quarantine the infected and pray that nobody from West Africa carrying the virus travels on an international flight infecting fellow passengers who in turn infect a crowded airport before spreading the virus to hundreds of thousands and then tens of millions.

You seem rather excited by that scenario.

biko

I will have to watch Outbreak again

SEPT 23 1989

and so it begins

wretcheddomain

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

There is no cure. The only way to stop it spreading is to quarantine the infected and pray that nobody from West Africa carrying the virus travels on an international flight infecting fellow passengers who in turn infect a crowded airport before spreading the virus to hundreds of thousands and then tens of millions.

Swine flu yawn

Barely There

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

There is no cure. The only way to stop it spreading is to quarantine the infected and pray that nobody from West Africa carrying the virus travels on an international flight infecting fellow passengers who in turn infect a crowded airport before spreading the virus to hundreds of thousands and then tens of millions.

The quarantine and prayer response to infectious diseases has been demonstrated to be effective in the past.

eamonnq

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

There is no cure. The only way to stop it spreading is to quarantine the infected and pray that nobody from West Africa carrying the virus travels on an international flight infecting fellow passengers who in turn infect a crowded airport before spreading the virus to hundreds of thousands and then tens of millions.

and would all the people on the plane be spreading it through their bodily fluids or blood ? And would they then go on and spread it to all the people in the 'crowded airport' in similar fashion.

Presumably all these people from the 'crowded airport' would be exchanging bodily fluids with all the people on the planes that they board also.

I would not be too worried about it.

Azwaldo55

eamonnq wrote: »

and would all the people on the plane be spreading it through their bodily fluids or blood ? And would they then go on and spread it to all the people in the 'crowded airport' in similar fashion.

Presumably all these people from the 'crowded airport' would be exchanging bodily fluids with all the people on the planes that they board also.

I would not be too worried about it.

Sneezing and coughing would do that.

TwoShedsJackson

biko wrote: »

I will have to watch Outbreak again

Watch Contagion instead.

Strawberry Swan

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

And why not? The virus has a 90% death rate.

". . . up to 90% death rate". It depends on which Ebola type it is. I'm no good at maths but I'm pretty sure 330 deaths out of 520 cases is not 90%. (If those figures are right)

No doubt a proper healthcare system, even running water and soap, in developed countries would bring the death rate way down.

TwoShedsJackson

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

Sneezing and coughing would do that.

No it won't

Ebola is introduced into the human population through close contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected animals. In Africa, infection has been documented through the handling of infected chimpanzees, gorillas, fruit bats, monkeys, forest antelope and porcupines found ill or dead or in the rainforest.

Ebola then spreads in the community through human-to-human transmission, with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and indirect contact with environments contaminated with such fluids. Burial ceremonies in which mourners have direct contact with the body of the deceased person can also play a role in the transmission of Ebola. Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery from illness.

wretcheddomain

TwoShedsJackson wrote: »

No it won't

They are wearing face masks here.

Explain.

Let me anticipate, they're for fashion reasons only?

Duckworth_Luas

Are apes immune to this virus?

When humanity falls they're the last guys I want to see take over.

Damned dirty apes!

TwoShedsJackson

wretcheddomain wrote: »

They are wearing face masks here.

Explain.

Let me anticipate, they're for fashion reasons only?

Simple precautions can't hurt.

Transmission

EVD is believed to occur after an ebolavirus is transmitted to a human index case via contact with an infected animal host. Human-to-human transmission occurs via direct contact with blood or bodily fluids from an infected person (including embalming of an infected dead person) or by contact with contaminated medical equipment such as needles. In the past, explosive nosocomial transmission has occurred in under-equipped African hospitals due to the reuse of needles and lack of implementation of universal precautions. Aerosol transmission has not been observed during natural EVD outbreaks. The potential for widespread EVD epidemics is considered low due to the high case-fatality rate, the rapidity of demise of patients, and the often remote areas where infections occur.

Jerrica

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

And why not? The virus has a 90% death rate.

No, it has up to a 90% fatality rate. According to the CDC (as of June 18) the current Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia outbreak has a case fatality rate of 64% (See Here)

As much as I love this virus (and I do, it's fascinating, popularised by The Hot Zone, but a much more realistic and less-sensationalised account of the virus is represented in Virus Hunters and Spillover: Animal Infection and the Next Human Pandemic) Ebolavirus most likely won't be responsible for the next pandemic catastrophe. It has a long and delightful history of emerging into pockets of human communities (from where we don't know, infected bushmeat? Bats?), killing a few hundred people (280 in 1976 in Zaire, 200ish in Uganda in 2001) and then disappearing again. It's a locally devastating virus but highly unlikely to become something we need to worry about.

Duckworth_Luas no apes aren't immune, and whole swathes of great ape populations (orang-utan, chimps, gorillas) have been wiped out at various times from ebola.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Are we all dead yet?

893bet

wretcheddomain wrote: »

They are wearing face masks here.

Explain.

Let me anticipate, they're for fashion reasons only?

Dont think that body they are carrying will be coughing any time soon.

eamonnq

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Are we all dead yet?

Just the OP.

Duckworth_Luas

Duckworth_Luas wrote: »

Are apes immune to this virus?

When humanity falls they're the last guys I want to see take over.

Damned dirty apes!

Azwaldo55

If the virus leads to infections in the thousands or the hundreds of thousands the use of nuclear weapons should not be ruled out.

KungPao

Of course Madagascar has already closed its shipping ports and airports. So, it'll be up to them to ride out the storm and begin re-populating the earth.

eamonnq

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

If the virus leads to infections in the thousands or the hundreds of thousands the use of nuclear weapons should not be ruled out.

Ah jaysus. :rolleyes:

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Nuke em all and let God sort em out. A pretty standard approach to disease control you'll find.

KungPao

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Nuke em all and let God sort em out. A pretty standard approach to disease control you'll find.

Or just nuke the entire planet from orbit. It's the only way to be sure the virus is gone.

Fozzie Bear

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

If the virus leads to infections in the thousands or the hundreds of thousands the use of nuclear weapons should not be ruled out.

Nukes huh?

Would you say it's time for us to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside??

Bear Grylls must be hoarding his own pi$$ as we speak....

eamonnq

Fozzie Bear wrote: »

Nukes huh?

Would you say it's time for us to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside??

I think some heads may not even have GOO inside.

o1s1n

KungPao wrote: »

Or just nuke the entire planet from orbit. It's the only way to be sure the virus is gone.

Fcukin' A!

Sugar Free

Tom Clancy predicted this global outbreak a long time ago. All it needs first is ISIS to capture some top scientists and doctors and voila!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Orders

KungPao wrote: »

Of course Madagascar has already closed its shipping ports and airports. So, it'll be up to them to ride out the storm and begin re-populating the earth.

I Pandemic

Beano

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

There is no cure. The only way to stop it spreading is to quarantine the infected and pray that nobody from West Africa carrying the virus travels on an international flight infecting fellow passengers who in turn infect a crowded airport before spreading the virus to hundreds of thousands and then tens of millions.

You been watching 12 monkeys again?

bb1234567

I think if humanity was as close to the brink of demise as you say, we would be hearing a bit more about it

Azwaldo55

bb1234567 wrote: »

I think if humanity was as close to the brink of demise as you say, we would be hearing a bit more about it

That's what they want you to think.

o1s1n

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

That's what they want you to think.

Can you make me a tinfoil hat too please?

miss no stars

In fairness, it's a pretty serious piece of news. MSF can't contain it anymore? While it might not wipe out all of humanity I'd hate to think it'd spread to here and what would happen if it did. Would our hospitals cope?

KungPao

miss no stars wrote: »

In fairness, it's a pretty serious piece of news. MSF can't contain it anymore? While it might not wipe out all of humanity I'd hate to think it'd spread to here and what would happen if it did. Would our hospitals cope?

They can barely cope as it is... A relentless killer pandemic may just push our health service over the edge!

Jerrica

miss no stars wrote: »

Would our hospitals cope?

Yes, but with a few casualties along the way. We don't have any dedicated infectious disease units in our hospitals so we'd be relying on standard hygiene practices, these have been shown on many occasions to be less than best-practice so they'd obviously have to be tightened up. It would take the loss of a few lives for that to happen. Then it depends on exposure levels to other people, if it stayed relatively self contained and only health care professionals contracted the virus then I imagine it would stay quite local within the hospital, and once isolation was established you could wait it out until all cases were either dead or recovered.

The difficulty is that we have no BSL-4 labs here in IReland, no official ones anyway, but I've heard rumours that some BSL-3 labs have small quantities of Ebolavirus for research purposes. So getting a confirmed diagnosis could cause a delay during which the virus could spread through improper handling of infected patients.

bb1234567

miss no stars wrote: »

In fairness, it's a pretty serious piece of news. MSF can't contain it anymore? While it might not wipe out all of humanity I'd hate to think it'd spread to here and what would happen if it did. Would our hospitals cope?

Well , itd be much easier to control a viral outbbreak in europe than west africa. Borders are tighter, more security, better health awareness and general hygiene. Also we are an island..Im sure that would stand to us? Like it would take longer to spread here than to the continent

But yeah wouldnt like to see it coming round here...90% mortality rate?! Thats crazy. Swine flu was like 10% mortality at most, and it mostly just killed the elderly and those with health problems

kowloon

Sugar Free wrote: »

I Pandemic

For those who are wondering what this means: http://www.crazymonkeygames.com/Pandemic-2.html

Jerrica

Jerrica wrote: »

Yes, but with a few casualties along the way. We don't have any dedicated infectious disease units in our hospitals so we'd be relying on standard hygiene practices, these have been shown on many occasions to be less than best-practice so they'd obviously have to be tightened up.

We have TB hospitals such as Merlin Park in Galway which as all separate units so a place like this would be ideal for segregation of patients at different stages of the disease.

Jerrica

Beckham Flat Vaporizer wrote: »

We have TB hospitals such as Merlin Park in Galway which as all separate units so a place like this would be ideal for segregation of patients at different stages of the disease.

What kind of biosafety precautions have they got there? You'd also have the issue of secure transport.

Musing about the demise of humanity is so much fun :pac:

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Jerrica wrote: »

Yes, but with a few casualties along the way. We don't have any dedicated infectious disease units in our hospitals so we'd be relying on standard hygiene practices, these have been shown on many occasions to be less than best-practice so they'd obviously have to be tightened up. It would take the loss of a few lives for that to happen. Then it depends on exposure levels to other people, if it stayed relatively self contained and only health care professionals contracted the virus then I imagine it would stay quite local within the hospital, and once isolation was established you could wait it out until all cases were either dead or recovered.

The difficulty is that we have no BSL-4 labs here in IReland, no official ones anyway, but I've heard rumours that some BSL-3 labs have small quantities of Ebolavirus for research purposes. So getting a confirmed diagnosis could cause a delay during which the virus could spread through improper handling of infected patients.

They do.

Jerrica

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

They do.

That's awesome

Those labs wouldn't be able to run large-scale diagnostics though would they? I mean not on a large-scale national level anyway.

Jerrica

Jerrica wrote: »

What kind of biosafety precautions have they got there? You'd also have the issue of secure transport.

Musing about the demise of humanity is so much fun :pac:

As it stands nothing out of the ordinary I'd imagine apart from the fact the there are 12 or 14 different totally separate units which is a very good start as you can completely isolate different groups of patients etc.