Royal Ascot Day Trois (that's 3)

Slattsy

One bet, my biggest fancy of the week and will def be carrying a serious load of my hard earned cash tomorrow is:

Pale Mimosa in the Gold Cup

Have her backed already once or twice at 16's each way and maybe some value has gone as only 12s now so will have some win only on that.
Ever since her staying on 4th at Ascot last year i've been dying to see her on fast ground in this race and gladly Weld as sent her.
That race was a sighter and sighter only to give her some experience travelling over and of the track with this race in mind and Smullen was handy on her and nursed her home yet she stayed on superbly.

Plenty to find with Leading Light on their last run, but she needed it and the trip was def a mile too short and she will love the ground tomorrow.

Leading Light won an awful Leger and is way too short, he has his chance in an open race but is not an even money shot and worth pointing out LL is not a certain stayer either (respect him given O'Briens record in the race)
While PM has never raced this far either, she will get every yard and improve big time for it. Weld is the man for this.
Huge fancy for me lads. Good thing

STADEdeLUC

Aidan O'Brien day tomorrow Leading Light and The Great War, Im loving Ascot this year the few winners, nice weather,cold beer combined with Gok Wan's tips, perfection

Harry Angstrom

Leading Light wins the Gold Cup.

Harry Angstrom

STADEdeLUC wrote: »

Aidan O'Brien day tomorrow Leading Light and The Great War, Im loving Ascot this year the few winners, nice weather,cold beer combined with Gok Wan's tips, perfection

They should have him on The Morning Line. He'd tip more winners than the so-called experts.

jimjamcos

Can't see Leading Light beat but I did say that about Treve, lol. Pale Mimosa well worth an each way bet though. As You say Slattsy ground perfect and Weld has always been bullish about her.

Goldcupfav

Didnt Weld say after the first race today that Pale Mimosa might be a doubt because of the drying ground? Pretty sure thats what i heard.

Harry Angstrom

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Didnt Weld say after the first race today that Pale Mimosa might be a doubt because of the drying ground? Pretty sure thats what i heard.

They're going to water tonight, although it shouldn't make a huge difference, unless it rains on the watered ground in the morning.

Slattsy

One of her 3 wins was on good to firm while another was on genuinely good ground.
Got to trust Weld if he's worried about it though.

Mostly Harmless

I am quite sweet on the chances of American Hope in the Britannia Handicap. Big, long striding sort who didn't look particularly well suited by Lingfield when not far behind Ertijaal on a couple of occasions. Should be much more at home over the straight mile here and should go well at a rewarding price if proving as effective on the turf.

ipitydafool

Fancy hors De combat in the Britannia.Has form on rattling good ground and is well thought of. 12-1 is fair price in competitive race

newuser89

I don't know how anyone can be confident in leading lights chances.
Won a bad irish st ledger and hasn't beat much else.
Stable hasn't quite fired this week as well.
Brown panther will take all the beating,I thought he was a nearly horse a couple years ago put he has proved me wrong and wins his share these days.
Weld was talking of pulling out pale mimosa if ground is gone against her

longshotvalue

Keep looking at the gold cup and stopping at Saddlers Rock , trying to convince myself he has any chance..

jimjamcos

aidankkk wrote: »

Keep looking at the gold cup and stopping at Saddlers Rock , trying to convince myself he has any chance..

Stay strong, he's been a let down for a long time now, even when getting his favoured ground like does tomorrow.

Harry Angstrom

newuser89 wrote: »

I don't know how anyone can be confident in leading lights chances.
Won a bad irish st ledger and hasn't beat much else.
Stable hasn't quite fired this week as well.
Brown panther will take all the beating,I thought he was a nearly horse a couple years ago put he has proved me wrong and wins his share these days.
Weld was talking of pulling out pale mimosa if ground is gone against her

Aidan knows exactly what it takes to win a Gold Cup. This horse has been trained with only one race in mind this season, just like Yeats and Fame And Glory before him. There are very few horses who win a Queen's Vase and have enough class to drop back two furlongs and win a Leger. He has the course form and his class will see him last out the two and a half miles.

jimjamcos

newuser89 wrote: »

I don't know how anyone can be confident in leading lights chances.
Won a bad irish st ledger and hasn't beat much else.
Stable hasn't quite fired this week as well.
Brown panther will take all the beating,I thought he was a nearly horse a couple years ago put he has proved me wrong and wins his share these days.
Weld was talking of pulling out pale mimosa if ground is gone against her

He's 6/8, the only two losses being debut and a high class Arc.

He's got better the further he's went.

His "laziness" during a race and temperament gives him every chance of staying the distance.

He beat two decent yardsticks comfortably fto despite trainers poor form at time and carrying a penalty.

He's trained by a master whose horses have not been under-performing this week. They've all ran as well as form suggested they would, he's had a few placers and cannot think of an AOB horse which was expected to win and didn't.

tryfix

Leading Light looks the business in the Gold Cup, but a place or each way bet on Estimate looks good to me. There's not many as suited by the race as she is, Leading Light will really make it a test of stamina which is her forte.

Dubron

My only real fancy tomorrow is Vazira in the 3.45, step up in trip and firmish ground should see her improve enough to win this, 3/1 a decent price. Might have a little mug double on The Great War and Leading Light, think they'll both win but they're both too short.

newuser89

I'm just really surprised at his price and confidence behind him as I don't think anything stacks up for him to be at that price.
Also if anyone can find trouble in running Joseph can.

bellybuster12

Going for another small e/w lucky 15 for interest


Royal Ascot 17:00 - Outright Betting Third Dimension 16/1

Royal Ascot 16:25 - Outright Betting Brown Panther 8/1

Royal Ascot 15:45 - Outright Betting Bright Approach 5/1

Royal Ascot 15:05 - Outright Betting Barley Mow 6/1


Have also done a double on The great war and Leading light 5/2

longshotvalue

Ascot Gold Cup

Saddlers Rock hasn’t really lived up to expectations in the last 18 Months, but does have his favoured fast ground today. He has had a couple of good runs at the end of last year and if he can get back to form he is capable of getting involved he on a course he generally runs well on. 50/1 is above the threshold that I can avoid selecting him for E/W value as his place chance is much better than 12/1. There is also the option of 40/1 with 4 places with coral, and its close as to which is the best value. I think I’ll err on the side of caution and go for the 4 places here.

1 Point EW 40/1 4 Places Coral

JuniorB

aidankkk wrote: »

Ascot Gold Cup

Saddlers Rock hasn’t really lived up to expectations in the last 18 Months, but does have his favoured fast ground today. He has had a couple of good runs at the end of last year and if he can get back to form he is capable of getting involved he on a course he generally runs well on. 50/1 is above the threshold that I can avoid selecting him for E/W value as his place chance is much better than 12/1. There is also the option of 40/1 with 4 places with coral, and its close as to which is the best value. I think I’ll err on the side of caution and go for the 4 places here.

1 Point EW 40/1 4 Places Coral

Powers are 10/1 place only betting

rossom

I'd be afraid blinkers would have a negative impact on a notoriously buzzy Saddlers Rock myself.

dilinja1

rossom wrote: »

I'd be afraid blinkers would have a negative impact on a notoriously buzzy Saddlers Rock myself.

what are peoples thoughts on simenon, guaranteed stayer, good track record, ground should be OK. Has the globe trotting taken it out of him?? I would put a line through his last run as is it looked like he was out for a spin and the ground was soft. 25s looks pretty big. Had a decent wedge e/w on him last year ante post. Seems to have snuck in under the radar this year granted his current form is not up to much. Will probably run like a dog!!

rossom

dilinja1 wrote: »

what are peoples thoughts on simenon, guaranteed stayer, good track record, ground should be OK. Has the globe trotting taken it out of him?? I would put a line through his last run as is it looked like he was out for a spin and the ground was soft. 25s looks pretty big. Had a decent wedge e/w on him last year ante post. Seems to have snuck in under the radar this year granted his current form is not up to much. Will probably run like a dog!!

This doesn't look a great renewal and although there are a good few risks attached I think they're factored into the price and 25s is fair.

Deco99

aidankkk wrote: »

Ascot Gold Cup

Saddlers Rock hasn’t really lived up to expectations in the last 18 Months, but does have his favoured fast ground today. He has had a couple of good runs at the end of last year and if he can get back to form he is capable of getting involved he on a course he generally runs well on. 50/1 is above the threshold that I can avoid selecting him for E/W value as his place chance is much better than 12/1. There is also the option of 40/1 with 4 places with coral, and its close as to which is the best value. I think I’ll err on the side of caution and go for the 4 places here.

1 Point EW 40/1 4 Places Coral

66s with betvictor. Is there a shop in dublin open.

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

One bet, my biggest fancy of the week and will def be carrying a serious load of my hard earned cash tomorrow is:

Pale Mimosa in the Gold Cup

Have her backed already once or twice at 16's each way and maybe some value has gone as only 12s now so will have some win only on that.
Ever since her staying on 4th at Ascot last year i've been dying to see her on fast ground in this race and gladly Weld as sent her.
That race was a sighter and sighter only to give her some experience travelling over and of the track with this race in mind and Smullen was handy on her and nursed her home yet she stayed on superbly.

Plenty to find with Leading Light on their last run, but she needed it and the trip was def a mile too short and she will love the ground tomorrow.

Leading Light won an awful Leger and is way too short, he has his chance in an open race but is not an even money shot and worth pointing out LL is not a certain stayer either (respect him given O'Briens record in the race)
While PM has never raced this far either, she will get every yard and improve big time for it. Weld is the man for this.
Huge fancy for me lads. Good thing

Non-Runner

Thems the breaks

Soft Falling Rain

newuser89 wrote: »

I don't know how anyone can be confident in leading lights chances.
Won a bad irish st ledger and hasn't beat much else.
Stable hasn't quite fired this week as well.
Brown panther will take all the beating,I thought he was a nearly horse a couple years ago put he has proved me wrong and wins his share these days.
Weld was talking of pulling out pale mimosa if ground is gone against her

Quite a large price @ 7/1 all things considered, surely there's not that much of a gulf between the top 2?

bellybuster12

Anyone know the pricewise selections?

dilinja1

rossom wrote: »

This doesn't look a great renewal and although there are a good few risks attached I think they're factored into the price and 25s is fair.

Yeah you are right. would be sickened if he came back to form and I had nothing on - has a fair bit to find tho on the face of it. Brown panther is a decent e/w. Cant believe the price on Leading Light. Ridiculous!!

Bateman

To Be Determined is one anyway

dilinja1

Bateman wrote: »

To Be Determined is one anyway

Today's best


To Be Determined
2.30 Royal Ascot
1pt win at 10-1 with Boylesports (9-1 with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power)


Bright Approach
3.45 Royal Ascot
1pt win at 8-1 with Hills (7-1 generally)


Advised ante-post
Royal Diamond
4.25 Royal Ascot
1pt win at 20-1


Hunters Creek
5.00 Royal Ascot
1pt win at 22-1 with Hills (20-1 with Betfred & Boylesports)


Bilimbi
5.00 Royal Ascot
1pt win at 14-1 generally


Alex My Boy
5.35 Royal Ascot
1pt win at 20-1 with Coral (16-1 with Paddy Power)

Gavin "shels"

bellybuster12 wrote: »

Anyone know the pricewise selections?

To Be Determined (2:30), Bright Approach (3:45), Hunters Creek & Bilimbi (5:00) and Alex My Boy (5:35)

Slim Charles

This is usually the day where my RA falls apart.

rossom

5.00 Ascot

American Hope 66/1

There's a good chance he'll finish closer to last than first but I've got a soft spot for the Mike Murphy yard and I think American Hope will really appreciate the lightning pace on a straight track for his turf/handicap debut. Having given Irish trainer his first winner in over 10 years when scoring on his second start at Dundalk, American Hope joined current connections for 34,000 Guineas prior to the start of his 3 year old campaign and I think he has run really well on all 4 starts on Lingfield's AW track - a track his trainer has stated from the outset does not suit him and which certainly looks to be the case for this long striding sort. Having run a fine race on his stable debut when 2nd in a Conditions event despite being unbalanced and green over 6f, he ran a blinder when just narrowly failing to reach the useful Ertijal upped to 7f for the first time. Upped to a mile on his 3rd start this year, American Hope was not at all suited by the tactical nature of the 3 runner Listed contest where he couldn't get sufficient cover but was still only beaten 2L and he ran another fine race in the 7f AW Championship race when 4th just 13 days later. With that his 3rd run in 6 weeks, American Hope has been given a couple of months off the track as he makes his turf and handicap debut today. Judged on his form thus far, I think a mark of 99 is workable given all his best efforts were achieved at a track that is not ideal for this big son of Lemon Drop Kid and I think he's really going to appreciate the switch to Ascot's galloping track as he embarks upon what is hopefully a fruitful turf campaign. Although there are unquestionably doubts about his stamina for 1m, I think he'll stay it fine if he can settle throughout the contest and I think he'll be able to get into a lovely racing rhythm in what is sure to be a typically well run Britannia Stakes. Shane Kelly takes the ride and knows the horse well and I think there is a good chance he'll be instructed to drop American Hope out for a late rattle which I think will suit this horse who travels kindly through his races. With just 6 starts thus far I think American Hope is still in an improving Colt and at 66/1 I think he's well worth a small each way in the hope he can land this contest.

rossom

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

I am quite sweet on the chances of American Hope in the Britannia Handicap. Big, long striding sort who didn't look particularly well suited by Lingfield when not far behind Ertijaal on a couple of occasions. Should be much more at home over the straight mile here and should go well at a rewarding price if proving as effective on the turf.

Good to see I'm not the only mad man to fancy him!

Johner

I think The Great War and Leading Light will both win but are too short in the betting.

3.05 Cannock Chase 9/4

Was impressed with the way Cannock Chase travelled and won at Newbury last time out, has to improve another chunk now but he looked a lovely prospect and there is still loads to come from him on only his 3 start on turf. Has the best jockey on board and I think he'll take all the beating.

5.00 Chatez 25/1 / Table Rock 18/1

Both are racing off high enough marks and Chatez would probably prefer the ground to be soft but I was impressed with how both won last time out.

5.35 Arab Dawn 10/1

Arab Dawn rattled off a quick hat-rick in handicaps going from 66 to 90 in about 3 weeks. He was raised 10 pounds for his last effort at Kempton where he won with loads in hand. I still think there is a bit more to come from him and have backed him each way.

Bateman

Backed Bilimbi the last day, don't think I could have him again.

There is a free newsletter you can sign up to, the "HUB", (heads up bulletin), they email you Pricewise selections at about 7 every Saturday morning, could probably make a living backing them at 7 in the morning, going back to bed for a few hours and then laying off around lunchtime...don't think they do the newsletter on weekdays during the big meets though.

Bateman

Am also on the mug double today, as someone above said, the iffy patch Ballydoyle were having might be over now and they seem to be running their races at least.

mickey1979

RA 5.00 Lyn Valley 1ptew 25/1 ew Third Dimension 1pt ew 16/1
RA 5.30 3 pts Elite Army 5/1 win 1 point ew Black Snapps 20/1

Harry Angstrom

I hope this O'Brien 2yo is as good as they think in the opener.

Nulty

Deco99 wrote: »

66s with betvictor. Is there a shop in dublin open.

Theres one in Mayor Square down by Spencer Dock across from NCI.

Theresalwaysone

Nulty wrote: »

Theres one in Mayor Square down by Spencer Dock across from NCI.

Closed a while ago.

irish_major

Gone e/w on missunited in the gold cup, 80/1 is too big to be ignored.

Nulty

Theresalwaysone wrote: »

Closed a while ago.

Never many in there. It was a decent shop though. Loads of room and comfy seats

Bateman

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I hope this O'Brien 2yo is as good as they think in the opener.

2/2 so far at SPs of 1/9 and 3/10, different ball game today but hopefully the mug double gets off to a good start

Bateman

Nulty wrote: »

Never many in there. It was a decent shop though. Loads of room and comfy seats

full of mugs and women during Cheltenham week every year but other than that it used to be fairly quiet alright, was a nice spot for eating lunch in peace

Harry Angstrom

Fcuk it, if they take out the American filly, they'll shorten up the fav.

Harry Angstrom

So much for reputations.

Gringo180

Dodged a bullet with O Briens. Some scandalous prices this week.

tucker1971

To be determined should never had ran. Feel bloody cheated

Francie Barrett

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.