Ascot Day 1

longshotvalue

Ascot 5:00

Waterclock sticks out for me considerably here at the prices. The Trainer is boasting a very good strike rate at the moment and especially with Graham Lee on board. He was a great 2nd at the end of last year in the Cesarewitch off only 2 lbs. less and looks sure to be better for the step up in trip. His first run this year can be discounted as he was never in the Chester Cup, being behind all the way. 33/1 looks a fairly significant overprice compared to the rest of the field and as a 5yo with more improvement to come over this type of trip he looks great value.

1 Point EW 33/1 Various

andyman

The Wow Signal surely has the best form going into the Coventry?

Won his maiden ahead of Doc Charm and Jungle Cat, both of whom have gone on to win nto and the horse who finished 2nd to Jungle Cat on that occasion has also gone on to win.

longshotvalue

Ascot 4:25

War Command has some of the best 2yo form possible and blew away the field here in the Coventry here last year. I think he could well improve massively from the 2000 and wouldn’t be surprised if he went of much shorter that 15/2. That price is just 2-3 points to big at least as has to be taken for value

1 Point win 15/2 Stan/888

nuckeythompson

5.00 Suraj

3.05 Portamento

both solid each way chances. I fancy Sole POwer but really wonder will R Hughes suit him? Id love to see jamie spencer on him

jimjamcos

aidankkk wrote: »

Ascot 4:25

War Command has some of the best 2yo form possible and blew away the field here in the Coventry here last year. I think he could well improve massively from the 2000 and wouldn’t be surprised if he went of much shorter that 15/2. That price is just 2-3 points to big at least as has to be taken for value

1 Point win 15/2 Stan/888

Not saying War Command won't win but I think the form of that Coventry and his form on the whole is highly questionable. Out of the 14 other Coventry runners, there has only been two races won since. From what I remember, they went pretty hard that day and he was dropped out and produced late to beat a pretty woeful field. I know he won a Dewhurst after but I'd question the quality of that win too with Outstrip not getting his ground while he ran as good as I'd expect in The Guineas on his bare form.

Maybe I'm totally wrong and Ascot will bring out the best in him but just think he could be flattered by his Coventry run and a false price as a result.

rossom

jimjamcos wrote: »

Not saying War Command won't win but I think the form of that Coventry and his form on the whole is highly questionable. Out of the 14 other Coventry runners, there has only been two races won since. From what I remember, they went pretty hard that day and he was dropped out and produced late to beat a pretty woeful field. I know he won a Dewhurst after but I'd question the quality of that win too with Outstrip not getting his ground while he ran as good as I'd expect in The Guineas on his bare form.

Maybe I'm totally wrong and Ascot will bring out the best in him but just think he could be flattered by his Coventry run and a false price as a result.

Clock was good on his time in the Coventry. 0.4 seconds outside 2 year old record and I remember rain was coming down on what was officially called good ground.

Granted, from a form perspective, he looks to have a bit to find and although that race was ran at a really decent clip and fell apart the clock is hard to argue with.

longshotvalue

jimjamcos wrote: »

Not saying War Command won't win but I think the form of that Coventry and his form on the whole is highly questionable. Out of the 14 other Coventry runners, there has only been two races won since. From what I remember, they went pretty hard that day and he was dropped out and produced late to beat a pretty woeful field. I know he won a Dewhurst after but I'd question the quality of that win too with Outstrip not getting his ground while he ran as good as I'd expect in The Guineas on his bare form.

Maybe I'm totally wrong and Ascot will bring out the best in him but just think he could be flattered by his Coventry run and a false price as a result.

your probably right , its a visual thing sometimes, he just impressed me last year.. Felt 15-2 is a bjt of value..

jimjamcos

aidankkk wrote: »

your probably right , its a visual thing sometimes, he just impressed me last year.. Felt 15-2 is a bjt of value..

That's fair enough and wasn't aware of the time of that run until Rossom posted above tbh. Been solid money for him and all's in his favour so if he is going to go close in a big one, could well be tomorrow. Best of luck with him anyway.

jimjamcos

Great days racing!


2.30: Tough race to call. Toronado is supremely talented and Hannon/Hughes comments added to the flood of money for him would suggest he's a good thing but there's just something about him that never instills confidence - has had his breathing issues and flopped when connections were bullish before. Verrazano, a beautiful animal, is also tough to gauge. Got a hands and heels ride in The Lockinge like the lack of market support suggested he would with AOB more than happy with the educational run. Question is though, if Olympic Glory beat him comefortably what do Hannons expect Toronado to do to him? Market would suggest a similarly decisive victory. Can't be having any of the rest. Would be disappointed if SFR could win a Gr1 of this class. At evens, Toronado is not a single bet for me but one for multiples.

3.05: Another tough race. Can't be having War Envoy. Although AOB says he left him short the last day he'd little excuses in my book. One I like is The Wow Signal- impressive lto, form franked and worth a small ew bet @ 13/2.

3.45: Hot Streak has to be respected but I'm happy to let him prove himself in this company before believing he's good enough to deserve favourite in tomorrow's class of race. Sole Power has already beaten him this season and him and Shea Shea @ 5/1 and 4/1 respectively are the two best horses in the race in all known form. Both get their ground tomorrow and I'm happy to back both with Paddy Powers money back offer on 2nd and 3rd. If anything Hot Streak may set it up for the two established stars. Guerre is the unknown - has beaten Maarek comfortably this season and Moore onboard when he had the Sole Power ride is intriguing. Probably worth a bet too but can't have them all.

4.25: I can't really explain why but I expect Kingman to put on a show if given a patient ride. Couldn't knock anyone for backing NOT but just have a gut feeling that Gosdens is classier and that class will come to the fore in a race less frantic than the Guineas. Double with Toronado.

5.00: Domination @ 12/1 - Byrnes, a valuable handicap and likes good ground. Got to be worth a small each way.

5.35: hootenanny @ 13/2 - Wesley Ward 2yo speed balls tend to do well at Ascot. Have watched a couple of his American runs. Has searing pace but responds to pressure too and will take a good one to pass him on ground he'll relish.

newuser89

3.05
Cock of the north

Well backed to beat tiggy wiggy last time in listed race
And played up before being loaded,started slowly and flew home to be beaten 3 lengths over 5 f.
Extra furlong to suit
Should be great e/w chance

tryfix

I'm hoping Toormore will get to the front of the field in the St James Palace stakes and stay there under Ryan Moore, but I wouldn't put the house on it.:pac:

It's absolutely top class class racing tomorrow.

sdoc13

Think verazzano a cracking ew bet to nothing.
Have also backed sole power with the pp offer at 5s.

Great days racing.

newuser89

tryfix wrote: »

I'm hoping Toormore will get to the front of the field in the St James Palace stakes and stay there under Ryan Moore, but I wouldn't put the house on it.:pac:

It's absolutely top class class racing tomorrow.

I think the guineas run is as good as Toormore is,he beat the grey gatsby the same distance in the guineas as in the prep race.
Group 2 will be his level I think

Dubron

Anyone know the latest on the ground? Hoping it'll be on the firm side of good, really fancy Sole Power and Domination. Hughesie should suit Sole Power perfectly!

Slattsy

Hard to see past Toronado and really think he's a 4/7ish shot. Evens wont be around tomorrow.

Shea Shea a great bet to nothing, really cant see this fella out of the places and coming here fresher than last year. Really think he's there or thereabouts.

Kingman the obvious one in the James Palace, although i dont think Night of Thunder should be a 5/2 shot so i might take a chance on him confirming the form.

No huge interest in the Coventry.... but if Cappella Sansevero was trained by AOB he'd probably be 4/1 fav so maybe a bit of value there at 8's.

Plinth will be my main bet tomorrow. Im certain this horse has been running with the handbrake on and this (well maybe Punchestown was) the time they let it off but im taking the chance with Joey

tryfix

newuser89 wrote: »

I think the guineas run is as good as Toormore is,he beat the grey gatsby the same distance in the guineas as in the prep race.
Group 2 will be his level I think

That's fair enough, Kingman looks a monster, but I've a soft spot for Toormore and will kick myself if he wins and I don't back him.

He quickened twice at the Curragh in his National Stakes win and he gave 3lb weight away to The Grey Gatsby and a 2l beating, so he ran 1 1/2l below that in the Guineas. That stands side in the Guineas has produced the Derby 1.2 and French Derby winner while Night Of Thunder gave Kingman on the far side a huge advantage by running across the track and still beat him, so it's worth having a nibble against Kingman just in case he's vulnerable.

jimjamcos

Dubron wrote: »

Anyone know the latest on the ground? Hoping it'll be on the firm side of good, really fancy Sole Power and Domination. Hughesie should suit Sole Power perfectly!

He's such a hold up horse though i'd be slightly worried Hughes'll overdo it. Still though, very hard to see him not place making PP's offer very good.

Francie Barrett

Guerre, Guerre, Guerre!

I know Sole Power is a forum favourite, but my ratings have it on the decline and I expect Shea Shea to turn around the form on it. If anything though, I think it's Guerre who has the best chance of all. For that horse to run as well as it early in the season against a horse of the quality of Maarek was seriously impressive. You can say that the going didn't suit Maarek perhaps, but you can't deny the time in which Guerre won, which was impressive. Also, the way it quickened in the last furlong suggests to me that good to firm should suit it quite well. Cannot understand for the life of me why this horse is 10/1 whereas Hot Streak is only 4/1. The fact that Ryan Moore takes the ride over the 2lb overweight Joseph is only a bonus in my eyes.

11/1 Betvictor.

jimjamcos

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Guerre, Guerre, Guerre!

I know Sole Power is a forum favourite, but my ratings have it on the decline and I expect Shea Shea to turn around the form on it. If anything though, I think it's Guerre who has the best chance of all. For that horse to run as well as it early in the season against a horse of the quality of Maarek was seriously impressive. You can say that the going didn't suit Maarek perhaps, but you can't deny the time in which Guerre won, which was impressive. Also, the way it quickened in the last furlong suggests to me that good to firm should suit it quite well. Cannot understand for the life of me why this horse is 10/1 whereas Hot Streak is only 4/1. The fact that Ryan Moore takes the ride over the 2lb overweight Joseph is only a bonus in my eyes.

11/1 Betvictor.

The fact that Moore surely had the choice of Sole Power could be telling too. Lynam said he wouldn't run unless Moore was available after his last win so something has obviously changed, whether that be a more solid arrangement between Moore and Ballydoyle or simply a preference for Guerre, who knows.

Dubron

jimjamcos wrote: »

The fact that Moore surely had the choice of Sole Power could be telling too. Lynam said he wouldn't run unless Moore was available after his last win so something has obviously changed, whether that be a more solid arrangement between Moore and Ballydoyle or simply a preference for Guerre, who knows.

Saw an interview with Eddie Lynam at Leopardstown last week where he said something along the lines of 'Aidan has one in the race so Ryan has to ride that.'

hudhastings

Got word for Anodin in the 1st hes 12's at the mo will it last?

rossom

Think 5.00 Ascot Agreement 33/1 might run a big one on debut for John Quinn. Ex AOB horse who won on his 3rd and final flat start for his former Irish trainer in good style over 12f at Galway in testing conditions and has since been hurdling with Rebecca Curtis with moderate success. He switches to the John Quinn yard for his handicap debut off a mark of 91 and is upped a massive 1 mile to this mammoth 20f contest and although it's difficult to decipher how well handicapped he is and if he'll stay this trip I think he's got a decent chance in both regards. Quinn showed his adept ability with a slightly similar recruit from the Curtis yard in Swymor recently and if he can do the same with this 4 year old son of Galileo then hopefully he can go close at a big, big price.

longshotvalue

Ascot 3:45

I really think this is between Sole Power and Shea Shea, but I think I’ve found a possible wrong priced horse in Stepper Point at 100/1. I’m not sure there is much between him and the likes of Steps who is a far shorter price. His close 4th behind Sole Power and Hot Streak in similar conditions reads really well and if we can put 2 poorer runs in France behind him a repeat of that form might have him in with a big chance to outrun those odds.

1 Point EW 100/1 Stepper Point BetV/888

Harry Angstrom

Verrazano weak enough in the betting for the Queen Anne. I'm surprised at that.

andyman

I expect a late surge of Coolmore money close to the off.

jimjamcos

How do we arrest faltering viewing figures? Lets add Gok Wan to the team!

Channel 4 - LOL

andyman

Think that Hughes interview has put me off Toronado tbh. He says he would be disappointed if he didn't win because of the price he is in the market, nothing to do with how he's training.

Harry Angstrom

The last time the Toronado team were that confident, he got well beat in the 2000 Guineas.

bellybuster12

This may not be true but i heard a rumor that Toronado has some sort of breathing issue(pinch of salt), hope it's nonsense.

Harry Angstrom

bellybuster12 wrote: »

This may not be true but i heard a rumor that Toronado has some sort of breathing issue(pinch of salt), hope it's nonsense.

It would explain why he ran so badly at York last year.

andyman

Guess that explains the lack of support for Verrazano. Sweating up a lot.

Gringo180

He had a breathing op after the Guineas last season too. Have went for Soft Falling Rain myself very over priced at 9/1.

andyman

Oh, forgot to mention my L15

Verrazano
The Wow Signal
Hot Streak
War Command (giving him one more chance)

Harry Angstrom

I hate those white bridles.

The Mig

Just doubles and a Treble for me

Verrazano
Capella Sanservro
Guerre

bellybuster12

Nicely done, breathing just fine:D

andyman

Verrazano reverses that nto I reckon

rossom

andyman wrote: »

Verrazano reverses that nto I reckon

Don't see why? Toronado looked well on top for the second time (although Verrazano was a lot better today)

Harry Angstrom

andyman wrote: »

Verrazano reverses that nto I reckon

He couldn't match the winner's turn of foot.

tomaussie

Very tired. Very drunk. Nearly midnight here.

Kodie Bear is a silly price on form with the fav.

Solid EW bet.

jimjamcos

Verrazano, as good as he ran, will never reverse the form. Does not have the exceptional turn of foot needed and Toronado will come on for that. Would be interesting if Toronado and Olympic Glory ever met but doubt it'll happen.

andyman

rossom wrote: »

Don't see why? Toronado looked well on top for the second time (although Verrazano was a lot better today)

What you said in brackets really. He looked to be struggling early on as well and finished very well despite this.

Toronado deserved winner and the best horse today, no doubt about that and I'm not talking out of my pocket, just think there's more to come from Verrazano.

The Mig

Think both horses will definitely improve again from today. Toronado will still beat him next time out though. Got to remember that today was Verrazano's 2nd run on Turf

Gringo180

andyman wrote: »

What you said in brackets really. He looked to be struggling early on as well and finished very well despite this.

Toronado deserved winner and the best horse today, no doubt about that and I'm not talking out of my pocket, just think there's more to come from Verrazano.

I think he needs a step up in trip more than anything, not in the same class as Toronado over a mile.

bellybuster12

Great to see channel 4 tackling the drop in viewers, Gok is a solid addition:rolleyes:

Harry Angstrom

Gringo180 wrote: »

I think he needs a step up in trip more than anything, not in the same class as Toronado over a mile.

He'd be an interesting runner in The Eclipse.

Slattsy

Australia will go for that

(i hope)

jimjamcos

Aboy Frankie! Nice horse, that. Gutsy!

andyman

Get in! Liked the look of Cappella Sansevero too.

jimjamcos

Starspangledbanner's lot are flying on that good ground!

Francie Barrett

results please.