dairying post 2015

farm14

Dairy is a very profitable enterprise right now. Strong prices for milk are leaving farmers with v positive margins but what will dairying be like post 2015 when quotas go & the massive extra supply of milk comes. Will it be profitable? How much does it cost to produce a litre of milk now for the most efficient producers?

micraX

With nearly everyone at it seeming to be getting bigger, it's only going to end one way, badly. So sit back grab the popcorn and prepare for a good laugh from all the lad crying and moaning about making nothing and getting no price, the very lads that will be boasting about expansion and uping production. It's going to be funny.

mahoney_j

micraX wrote: »

With nearly everyone at it seeming to be getting bigger, it's only going to end one way, badly. So sit back grab the popcorn and prepare for a good laugh from all the lad crying and moaning about making nothing and getting no price, the very lads that will be boasting about expansion and uping production. It's going to be funny.

Great post ur dead right!.we could trie production in this country and it would only have a tiny impact on world market price.markets will be volatile ,good and bad and it's up to each dairy farmer to set his/her business up to capitalise on both.youd have to be worried for sone new entrants comming in and guys upscaleing who just want to milk big nos cause they think there's money to be made with big nos.theres many a 60/70 cow man out there that are making more money and running better ships than guys with 100 plus cows just to be bigger than john farmer next store and look the big man

Conmaicne Mara

If it does go wrong, the one fella I won't have sympathy for is the fella throwing digs into the neighbour just because they want their land.

cristeoir

micraX wrote: »

With nearly everyone at it seeming to be getting bigger, it's only going to end one way, badly. So sit back grab the popcorn and prepare for a good laugh from all the lad crying and moaning about making nothing and getting no price, the very lads that will be boasting about expansion and uping production. It's going to be funny.

I fail to see the humour in anybodies misfortune, I certainly hope that it doesn't happen as I think dairy farmers are some of the hardest workers this country has.

Brown Podzol

Ireland produces about 5.5 billion litres of milk per year. The total world production of milk is about 720 billion litres. Another 2 or 3 billion litres isin't going to make much impact on the market. A good business man will succeed in dairying or indeed any other farming system. Poor business man will fail in any farming system. Simples.

micraX

cristeoir wrote: »

I fail to see the humour in anybodies misfortune, I certainly hope that it doesn't happen as I think dairy farmers are some of the hardest workers this country has.

Do you know many veg men? Because I know many of both and the vegetable farmer does more work than a dairy man hands down, but the exact same thing happened is the vegetable end off it everyone getting bigger and bigger and bang. It's standard business, you can't expect a lot of expansion band up in production to be getting the same price for the milk, just doesn't make sense, but most dairy farmers are ignoring this, and expecting to make a fortune, thats the humour, peoples stupidity.

cristeoir

No micra I don't know any veg growers, it is only dairy and beef around me and I have no doubt that you are getting a raw deal as I have read your previous posts but any dairy man going bust is not going to improve your lot or mine.

_Brian

The volitility in prices probably won't appear for a few years.

Lads would want to get borrowed money paid off ASAP.
Then maybe they will be able to withstand the lean years leaving them to capatilise on the good years.

It's going to be no bed of roses that's for sure and the killer could be when a period of strong price appears our weather may not facilitate low cost production.

micraX

cristeoir wrote: »

No micra I don't know any veg growers, it is only dairy and beef around me and I have no doubt that you are getting a raw deal as I have read your previous posts but any dairy man going bust is not going to improve your lot or mine.

I never said anything was going to be improved, dunno where you got that from, just said what was going to happen.

mf240

I think farmers are a lot smarter than ye give them credit for.

Very few of us got burned during the tiger years by comparison to the generall population.

Every farmer knows his own costs and what he can manage.


Theres always the odd gob****e but sure let them at it.

Farmer Pudsey

The cowman and the farmer should be friends, or rather the Dairyman and the Vegman should be friends.

Milk is traded on a world wide market Veg is not that is the main difference. We are a low cost producer a little dearer than NZ but a hell of a lot cheaper than most other producers. Even with high prices in Irish terms they are struggling to get US farmers to expand again. Also there is resistance growing to Hormone produced milk in the US. Grain prices are still dear compared to 3-4 years ago so hard to see huge pressure that will drop milk below 30c/L not to mind 25c/L.

Will milk processors in the US be as fast to drop below the cost of production again. The big Feedlot type milk producers have no choice but to slaughter cows when costs go above milk price. At 30c/L feed lot milk producers have to start slaughtering cows, grass based milk is still profitable relatively speaking.
Have no doubt about it there will be peaks and valleys but we are well placed to benefit from the removal of milk quota.

Milked out

The milk price has always gone up and down, its the ability to ride out the low prices untill they rise again is the key really. However weather here and all over the world can put stresses on regardless of milk price, along with energy enviromental policies esp in the US. Where I can see issues with those starting off or expanding is that if the debt level is maxed out and cash flow is used in good years to complete capital projects/ investments or whatever with not enough put away for the bad year, thats when the sh!t will hit the fan for some lads.

Timmaay

On the general post 2015 topic. My predictions are that we'll easily hit the harvest 2020 figure of a 50% growth. Farmer Pudsey explained the dynamics of the Irish and world market very well above. Of course not every farmer will grow by 50%. In general the bigger boys will do the bulk of the expansion of cow numbers, whereas the better lads who are limited by land will go down the root of higher yielding cows knocking out likes of 500kgMS/year. Of course it wont all be plain sailing, how big of a dip in milk prices, and what the weather is like are the two big unknowns which have the biggest impact. Further on from that I can see farmers attempting to keep on expanding past 2020 definitely, I've heard figures of 100% increase by 2030! However I'd guess that environmental issues could put the brakes on expansion, as is agriculture is one of the biggest contributes to emissions in Ireland, and if the likes of the Greens ever got back in power that could throw a spanner in the works.

On the shorter term, a softening of milk prices on the world market for now is probably a good thing! The USA have been quite slow to ramp back up production, even in the face of cheap enough grain, if the milk price is closer to the mid 30s they hopefully will be less incline to bother ramping up production, as they know how volatile the world market is.

Lambofdave

cristeoir wrote: »

I fail to see the humour in anybodies misfortune, I certainly hope that it doesn't happen as I think dairy farmers are some of the hardest workers this country has.

They certainly won't be taking responsibility if the Sh1t hits the fan it will be everyone else's fault. Just dairy farmers or farmers in general? As we all know everything in ireland is done to favour the dairy sector god be damed beef sheep and tillage

Greengrass1

Is this just a dairy bashing thread? If ye beef/sheep/tillage farmers want to make the same money get into dairy? Its not our fault its the highest paid farming profession at the minute?

mahoney_j

Key word there 'at the moment *.dont see it as a dairy bashing thread either..a lot see it as a gravy train though where all u do is rock up twice a day to milk and pick up a cheque 18 of every month .the reality is different,the hard long nights in spring,sick calves,mastitis ,scc etc etc.i worked in a well paid job though for 10 years but wouldn't return to it for live nor mobey .dairy farming can be a really fulfilling job and obe which I really enjoy

Greengrass1

mahoney_j wrote: »

Key word there 'at the moment *.dont see it as a dairy bashing thread either..a lot see it as a gravy train though where all u do is rock up twice a day to milk and pick up a cheque 18 of every month .the reality is different,the hard long nights in spring,sick calves,mastitis ,scc etc etc.i worked in a well paid job though for 10 years but wouldn't return to it for live nor mobey .dairy farming can be a really fulfilling job and obe which I really enjoy

Them are good points. A lot if hard work in the spring. But if its well set out its no harder than suckling in the summer

awaywithyou

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

If it does go wrong, the one fella I won't have sympathy for is the fella throwing digs into the neighbour just because they want their land.

Hmmmm... Throwing digs is unacceptable... But a lad letting his land go idle when there are young enthusiastic farmers around that would look after it if they were able to rent it isn't right either...

There must be 150 acres bounding me between 4 farmers that is growing some amount of weeds and rushes.... And the bloody thing that annoys me is that 3 of the 4 farms have absolutely no future whatsoever..... The other might which would be great if it did.... I think land being left idle is a sin tbh

Greengrass1

awaywithyou wrote: »

Hmmmm... Throwing digs is unacceptable... But a lad letting his land go idle when there are young enthusiastic farmers around that would look after it if they were able to rent it isn't right either...

There must be 150 acres bounding me between 4 farmers that is growing some amount of weeds and rushes.... And the bloody thing that annoys me is that 3 of the 4 farms have absolutely no future whatsoever..... The other might which would be great if it did.... I think land being left idle is a sin tbh

Try 350 acres 2 mile up the road with 50 animals on one and even less on the other. Some shame

Conmaicne Mara

awaywithyou wrote: »

Hmmmm... Throwing digs is unacceptable... But a lad letting his land go idle when there are young enthusiastic farmers around that would look after it if they were able to rent it isn't right either...

There must be 150 acres bounding me between 4 farmers that is growing some amount of weeds and rushes.... And the bloody thing that annoys me is that 3 of the 4 farms have absolutely no future whatsoever..... The other might which would be great if it did.... I think land being left idle is a sin tbh

When it's your land it's a sin. When it's someone elses land, it's their business. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbours acres

Viewtodiefor

awaywithyou wrote: »

Hmmmm... Throwing digs is unacceptable... But a lad letting his land go idle when there are young enthusiastic farmers around that would look after it if they were able to rent it isn't right either...

There must be 150 acres bounding me between 4 farmers that is growing some amount of weeds and rushes.... And the bloody thing that annoys me is that 3 of the 4 farms have absolutely no future whatsoever..... The other might which would be great if it did.... I think land being left idle is a sin tbh

It's a free country ted! Their property they can do what they like whether you or anyone else likes it or not. No one is entitled to another's idle land. Make use of what you have be thankful of it. You could just as easy have none

farmerjj

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Them are good points. A lot if hard work in the spring. But if its well set out its no harder than suckling in the summer

You serious??

joejobrien

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Them are good points. A lot if hard work in the spring. But if its well set out its no harder than suckling in the summer

There is some serious hard work in the spring its day and night job, feeding new calves everyday, sick ones:mad:,trying to mind land form poaching, scc , you get my point. At the end of calving season, more hard works continues for the next 12 week with the breeding season .Then it becomes a little bit easier but lets not forget its 7 day week, twice a day. In my opnion it doesnt even compete with sucklers. I dont what kind of system your running , sound idealic!!!

willfarmerman

micraX wrote: »

With nearly everyone at it seeming to be getting bigger, it's only going to end one way, badly. So sit back grab the popcorn and prepare for a good laugh from all the lad crying and moaning about making nothing and getting no price, the very lads that will be boasting about expansion and uping production. It's going to be funny.

Yes how dare they have the audacity to try something that they hope will increase their family income. Boasting all day they are. Il just sit with my thumb up my ass waiting for them to fail because i have a small penis.

Oldtree

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Let us keep this civil please

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EamonKilkenny

micraX wrote: »

With nearly everyone at it seeming to be getting bigger, it's only going to end one way, badly. So sit back grab the popcorn and prepare for a good laugh from all the lad crying and moaning about making nothing and getting no price, the very lads that will be boasting about expansion and uping production. It's going to be funny.

Ye your right, stay on the fence and laugh away. You will be safe there.

"He lay beneath stars and sat beneath the sun.
He lived a life of going to do and never got anything done."

frazzledhome

Lambofdave wrote: »

They certainly won't be taking responsibility if the Sh1t hits the fan it will be everyone else's fault. Just dairy farmers or farmers in general? As we all know everything in ireland is done to favour the dairy sector god be damed beef sheep and tillage

3 examples of how this country is favouring dairy farming?

Brown Podzol

Comes as quiet a surprise to me, anti dairy farmer sentiment, Gerald Potterton in the IFJ during the IFA elections and a couple of posts here. A case of "The beggar on horseback striking the beggar on foot."

frazzledhome

micraX wrote: »

With nearly everyone at it seeming to be getting bigger, it's only going to end one way, badly. So sit back grab the popcorn and prepare for a good laugh from all the lad crying and moaning about making nothing and getting no price, the very lads that will be boasting about expansion and uping production. It's going to be funny.

I'd say you can't sleep at night with excitement. Waiting for people to take a fall floats some people's boats but some people roll up their sleeves and get on with their lives.

I've listened to people like you all my life but thankfully while they're loud it becomes White noise after a while.

Milk prices rise and fall and will continue to do so and you know what we've survived

sheebadog

EamonKilkenny wrote: »

Ye your right, stay on the fence and laugh away. You will be safe there.

"He lay beneath stars and sat beneath the sun.
He lived a life of going to do and never got anything done."

"We may be lying in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars" Oscar Wilde

sheebadog

frazzledhome wrote: »

I'd say you can't sleep at night with excitement. Waiting for people to take a fall floats some people's boats but some people roll up their sleeves and get on with their lives.

I've listened to people like you all my life but thankfully while they're loud it becomes White noise after a while.

Milk prices rise and fall and will continue to do so and you know what we've survived

Milk price fall? Never. !
Sure it only ever fell once! Or was that twice?

willfarmerman

frazzledhome wrote: »

I'd say you can't sleep at night with excitement. Waiting for people to take a fall floats some people's boats but some people roll up their sleeves and get on with their lives.

I've listened to people like you all my life but thankfully while they're loud it becomes White noise after a while.

Milk prices rise and fall and will continue to do so and you know what we've survived

And with the help of god will always be above the begrudgers! I would thank this post a thousand times if I could!

Brown Podzol

sheebadog wrote: »

Milk price fall? Never. !
Sure it only ever fell once! Or was that twice?

Up and down like a whores knickers since the mid eighties.:D

sheebadog

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Up and down like a whores knickers since the mid eighties.:D

What century? .

sheebadog

Sold a few ton of wheat a few weeks back at €199.
All I can get today is € 166.
Do the maths with milk price at 37cpl.
Roughly equates to 30 or 31 cpl.

Start a thread called WHEAT PRICE. ?

Nobody gives a shyte.

Brown Podzol

sheebadog wrote: »

What century? .

The last one.:) can't remember before that as only commitments before the mid eighties were beer and chasing women, bank and wife since so milk price is of more importance.

EamonKilkenny

sheebadog wrote: »

"We may be lying in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars" Oscar Wilde

We're getting very poetic here tonight!

sheebadog

EamonKilkenny wrote: »

We're getting very poetic here tonight!

You started it.

Deepsouthwest

sheebadog wrote: »

"We may be lying in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars" Oscar Wilde

"Would u go away and sh1te, last night all u did was curse those stars". Bellx1!!!

Greengrass1

joejobrien wrote: »

There is some serious hard work in the spring its day and night job, feeding new calves everyday, sick ones:mad:,trying to mind land form poaching, scc , you get my point. At the end of calving season, more hard works continues for the next 12 week with the breeding season .Then it becomes a little bit easier but lets not forget its 7 day week, twice a day. In my opnion it doesnt even compete with sucklers. I dont what kind of system your running , sound idealic!!!

I meant dairy farming in there SUMMER is no harder than suckling in the SUMMER.

Timmaay

Greengrass1 wrote: »

I meant dairy farming in there SUMMER is no harder than suckling in the SUMMER.

I had this discussion the other day, yes dairying is more labour intensive than sucklers, disguardless of the time of year, however the increased income more than covers you for this extra labour, historically it has, at the minute, with the suckler sector on it's knees it obviously does, and moving forward there doesn't appear to be any end to the pain for suckler farmers, so I can't see this changing. The whole thing would hinge around if you are working full time outside the farm (forget about dairying!), the availability of relief milking (not a problem in most places, even if it's just the frs), and the availability of extra labour during the spring. Of theses, the last one is most certainly still an issue in my view, teagasc have released figures stating something like 5000 extra employees would be needed from 2015-20 to cover the 2020 50% increase in milk, I don't know if enough is being done to facilitate this.

rangler1

Timmaay wrote: »

I had this discussion the other day, yes dairying is more labour intensive than sucklers, disguardless of the time of year, however the increased income more than covers you for this extra labour, historically it has, at the minute, with the suckler sector on it's knees it obviously does, and moving forward there doesn't appear to be any end to the pain for suckler farmers, so I can't see this changing. The whole thing would hinge around if you are working full time outside the farm (forget about dairying!), the availability of relief milking (not a problem in most places, even if it's just the frs), and the availability of extra labour during the spring. Of theses, the last one is most certainly still an issue in my view, teagasc have released figures stating something like 5000 extra employees would be needed from 2015-20 to cover the 2020 50% increase in milk, I don't know if enough is being done to facilitate this.

Would agree with this, always seems to be plenty help on dairy farms, whereas sucklr farmers tend to have a job with suckling, These guys would be working way harder than any dairy farmer

Panch18

Is there any form of farming that is more inefficient than sucklers??

almost definitely not

It's nothing more than hobby farming so to compare it to dairying is just ridiculous

Viewtodiefor

Panch18 wrote: »

Is there any form of farming that is more inefficient than sucklers??

almost definitely not

It's nothing more than hobby farming so to compare it to dairying is just ridiculous

Have seen lads put 3 calves under each cow it makes it more efficient in my opinion.

Panch18

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Have seen lads put 3 calves under each cow it makes it more efficient in my opinion.

why not eliminate the cow completely?? That's what makes it so inefficient

Deepsouthwest

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Have seen lads put 3 calves under each cow it makes it more efficient in my opinion.

I'd say the amount of suckler men putting 3 calves under a cow are pretty slim. A few lads around here don't even have one calf under some of their cows

Greengrass1

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

I'd say the amount of suckler men putting 3 calves under a cow are pretty slim. A few lads around here don't even have one calf under some of their cows

That's the problem. If they all became more effient and every cow had a calf every year and had better grassland management would they not be a lot better off?
I can see a massive difference thus year in my herd where every cow that us milking has had a calf.

Panch18

Greengrass1 wrote: »

That's the problem. If they all became more effient and every cow had a calf every year and had better grassland management would they not be a lot better off?
I can see a massive difference thus year in my herd where every cow that us milking has had a calf.

The thing is GreenGrass that they mightn't/wouldn't be better off - being more efficient in sucklers isn't worth it - it definitely is in dairy - much harder to make a case for it in beef

Greengrass1

Panch18 wrote: »

The thing is GreenGrass that they mightn't/wouldn't be better off - being more efficient in sucklers isn't worth it - it definitely is in dairy - much harder to make a case for it in beef

Yes but hanging on to a cow for a yr when the rest have had calves is not going to make you money.

Deepsouthwest

Panch18 wrote: »

The thing is GreenGrass that they mightn't/wouldn't be better off - being more efficient in sucklers isn't worth it - it definitely is in dairy - much harder to make a case for it in beef

That's just a silly statement, surely being more efficient in any system of farming has to be worth it. It's like saying it doesn't matter how inefficient u are, u'll still make the same money!