Derby day

UrbanSea

Tangerine Trees about six points too big at 20/1 for the Dash. A sharp five furlongs and the well handicapped former Abbaye winner could take some pegging back. Really not sure some of those ahead of him in the betting are all that well handicapped, particularly Elusivity, Even Stevens and Steps. Good each way bet but went win only

unitedrover

Some great racing tomorrow. Fancy Smoothtalkinrascal for the Dash. Close 2nd last year so clearly handles the track.

With regards to the Derby, I was always a big fan of Australia and I do hope he turns out to be as good as his trainer claims. The quantity of rain the track gets is the question mark though.


Tomorrow could also see the first Triple Crown winner in the States since Affirmed in 1978 if California Chrome can claim the Belmont. A new triple crown winner is well due and I believe if he handles the longer trip he should do it.

rossom

3.10 Doncaster

Aviator 20/1

James Eustace's 6 year old is a bit of a speculative punt but I think he looks very interesting on his 3rd start in Britain and well worth a play at 20/1. A winner in both France and Germany, Aviator arrived at the James Eustace yard in April off a rating of 92 and having run very poorly when held up in two competitive handicaps he has dropped down 10lb to a mark of 82 and he faces a much easier task today. What looks very interesting is that he sports blinkers today for the first time since moving to England but all his best form came wearing them in the past and I'm hoping their return can certainly perk him up. When trained in Germany by Paul Harley, his best effort probably came in a French Listed contest at Saint Cloud when going down by a short head to Hughie Morrison's talented Quiz Mistress in October 2012 and a replication of that performance would surely see him outclass this field. With any rain sure to help and Luke Morris (14% for the yard) booked, I think Aviator will be ridden more aggressively over today's 12f trip and if the blinkers spark a revival (trainer reports on his site he's been working well at home) then he could go close at a big price.

3.15 Epsom

Even Stevens 12/1

Scott Dixon's 6 year old showed blistering pace over 5f at York LTO when probably going off in front a little too fast but I think a mark of 90 is workable and he's bagged the plum draw in stall 20. Testing conditions won't be any problem for him and Matthew Hopkins takes an extremely valuable 7lb off getting him down to a featherweight 8 stone and at 12/1 with 5 places paid with PP he definitely looks worth an each way play to me as he should prove hard to catch over the world's fastest 5f.

4.50 Epsom

Open Eagle 25/1

Although a lot of improving types line up here, I'm taking a chance with David O'Meara's 5 year old Open Eagle in what looks a wide open contest. Formerly trained by J C Rouget in France, Open Eagle made a big first impression when running out an impressive winner of a handicap at Carlisle off a mark of 88 when an eased down 3L scorer and he backed that up with a fine effort when 3rd in the November handicap off a mark of 95. Having run poorly twice late last year on the AW, Open Eagle made his seasonal reappearance in the Chester Cup when shaping much better than the bare result in a first time hood (retained) as he just didn't seem to stay the 2m2f trip and eased 1lb to a mark of 93 and dropped to a more suitable 1m4f I think he could certainly surprise a few for the blistering Tudhope/O'Meara partnership. Likely testing conditions shouldn't bother him having one on them in France.

8.15 Newcastle

Gala Casino Star 7/1

Gala Casino Star made an encouraging stable debut for Deborah Sanderson on the back of an 8 month absence over an inadequate trip at Pontefract last month and with a further 2lb ease in the weights to a mark of 68, the step back up to 10f, the reapplication of a visor which was worn for his 3 wins and the run sure to have done him a world of good I'm hoping this well handicapped 9 year old can record his first win since running up a hat trick which culminated back in August 2012. That win was a very ready 9L success off an 11lb higher mark and although he remained winless since then for former trainer Geoff Harker he did run well in defeat on a few occasions last year off higher marks than this. Regular pilot Jordan Nason takes a handy 7lb off and if the change of yard has reinvigorated Gala Casino Star he could prove tough to beat at a venue where he recorded a victory on his sole start.

8.45 Newcastle

New Story

The Ismail Mohammed yard is a stable I follow very closely and I was very taken by this 3 year old's recent debut when a ridiculous eye catcher in a Maiden at Newbury and I had him pegged as a guaranteed NTO winner that day. In a traditionally hot maiden won by the talented pair Remote and Fiorente in 2 of the past 3 seasons, New Story (sent off an unfancied 33/1 shot) was held up last under Jamie Spencer in the 16 runner contest where he was racing a little freely for much of the contest. Swinging into the home straight, New Story still remained at the rear of the field and he met some interference when he was just starting his run 2f and having been switched out wide with 1f to go he made up some really good headway under absolutely minimal coaxing from Spencer as he looked like he finished with a boat load in the tank as he was a never nearer 5.5L beaten 7th. I thought that day he looked like he had a very bright future ahead of him and this son of New Approach is certainly bred to be decent being a half brother to the French and Italian Listed winning pair of Tennenbaum and Aischa. Given that Ismail Mohammed normally leaves plenty of horse to work with, I expect New Story to come on a lot for the run and he should take an awful lot of beating in my book. Likely favourite Mange All actually finished 3rd in that Maiden and was about 2.5L in front of of this colt but I definitely think the experience and a more charmed run will see New Story overturn that form and I think its going to take a very decent sort to prevent New Story from winning today. With likely soft ground at Newcastle, New Story faces vastly different conditions than the good to firm ground he encountered on debut but two half brothers won on soft/heavy and the unraced Dam's full sister handled it too so I don't think he'll be disadvantaged by give underfoot. Paul Mulrennan takes the ride today and I feel his style will suit New Story quite well and for an in form yard who are 2-5 at the track I think he's going to take a truck load of beating as long as this 9 runner contest isn't too tactical an affair as I firmly believe this is a Pattern Class horse in the making and he'll hopefully be about 3/1 or bigger in the morning.

longshotvalue

Epson 3:15

This race is possibly the most difficult sprint of the year given the amount of luck in running, the track and the speed of it. I would have to go with outsiders here as the margins are tiny here between the runners and anything near the top of the market isn’t value in this race.

I’m going with 2 horses with a bit of class in Free Zone and Racy. Free Zone is off a decent mark after his poor recent form but given that he would have needed his seasonal reappearance I don’t this it’s out of the question that he can improve here and the mark of 100 is well within his grasp on his best form. He’ll go on more of less any ground and 33/1 looks a bit of value. Racy has been very good at Meyden this year and he probably needed his couple of runs since. He is worth a small risk at huge odds of 40/1. Again he is flexible with ground.

½ Point win Free Zone 33/1 Various

½ Point win RACY 40/1 Betvictor Stan James

longshotvalue

Doncaster 5:20

Gramercy got behind at Chester last time out and his race was run. He is of a very good mark has shown a few times this year he is possibly ready to win a race and 8/1 looks value in this weak enough affair.

2 Points win 8/1 Various

longshotvalue

4:35 Worcester

Star of Angels is back here after a very long layoff, but has a decent record fresh and is down to a very decent mark. The trainer is well capable of getting one to win after this kind of layoff and 16/1 looks value.

1 Point win 16/1 Various

superfurry1

Cornea Lilly 13.55 Worcester 11-1 First time jumping fences Mullholland has had a few winners lately and receiving alot of weight from fav could be a nice price.

oPATCHo

aidankkk wrote: »

4:35 Worcester

Star of Angels is back here after a very long layoff, but has a decent record fresh and is down to a very decent mark. The trainer is well capable of getting one to win after this kind of layoff and 16/1 looks value.

1 Point win 16/1 Various

Pipe only has two runners today and they both run in this race. hmmmmmmm :rolleyes:

I've backed Angels out of the two

tomaussie

oPATCHo wrote: »

Pipe only has two runners today and they both run in this race. hmmmmmmm :rolleyes:

I've backed Angels out of the two

My thoughts too.

Gringo180

That Boylesports are a joke, Ebanoran only 12s and its 16s everywhere else.

Gringo180

Andrew Cooper;

Given @EpsomRacecourse as Good, Good to Soft places. Revised Going Stick 7.5. Generally Good but just odd slower place.

Slattsy

Sunny there now, expect it dry out further. Might get the soft out of it officially by 4pm.

BorneTobyWilde

Zampa Manos 20-1 1.35
I like this ew.

Johner

Well done Jimmy Fortune.

Delighted for Jimmy after a difficult time of late.

Johner

Ballymore Castle in the next for me.

Johner

Johner wrote: »

Ballymore Castle in the next for me.

Balls.

superfurry1

superfurry1 wrote: »

Cornea Lilly 13.55 Worcester 11-1 First time jumping fences Mullholland has had a few winners lately and receiving alot of weight from fav could be a nice price.

Tiny mare going chasing late terrible call, what was i thinking i was more hoping for a big beasty butch of a mare, maybe later in coppers

mailburner

Is cda a good thing at 10/11?

somethings stopping me from pulling the trigger

Gatame

So who are we taking on CDA with?

Ground change: Good All Round.

Harry Angstrom

Gutted that Ruler of the World is missing this ordinary Coronation Cup. He might have been a backable price with Cirrus Des Aigles in the field.

Johner

Was Urban on?

handsfree2

Gatame wrote: »

So who are we taking on CDA with?

Ground change: Good All Round.

Flintshire, backed him this morning before the rain Fabre tends to only send horses he thinks will win.

jimjamcos

Mon CDA!

billy2012

Have to be on the FAV here!!

jimjamcos

What a CHAMP.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

Is cda a good thing at 10/11?

somethings stopping me from pulling the trigger

fook
chickened out

class act

Johner

What a horse.

jimjamcos

Done it injured too. Facking hell.

billy2012

Nice win. Hope he is okay.

On Fallon in the next two.

Slattsy

Serious cash for Australia now.

Bateman

Didn't fancy CDA as the ground dried out and layed him, impressive performance but like someone said, fairly ordinary race

TheMilkyPirate

On smoothtalkinrascal here

Johner

Swan Song.

Slattsy

Smoothtalkingrascal

mailburner

rascal ew at 10s here

hope the gaps come

Lapin

I love The Dash.

Fastest race in the world apparently.

andyman

Did Swansong finish 5th there?

UrbanSea

Dash winner by a now national hunt stallion

Gatame

andyman wrote: »

Did Swansong finish 5th there?

Yeah

jimjamcos

Australia to win in style! Western Hymn ew, Buick very bullish in ATR column.

Itziger

10 ew on Orchestra. No great confidence tbh.

Slattsy

If i wasnt on Australia i'd be laughing at the current price, its crazy as he's no 5/4 shot. I dont think.

I'd be on Oxx's horse e/w maybe

Soft Falling Rain

Johner wrote: »

Ballymore Castle in the next for me.

Was on it myself, bad out of the stalls and generally out of sorts throughout. I'm surprised Moore even got it going in the end.

Harry Angstrom

A "small" bet for Tabor is probably 100k.....

Slattsy

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

A "small" bet for Tabor is probably 100k.....

And he's probably on at 10/1 or bigger.

Slattsy

Every horse shortening now. Crazy stuff.

Lapin

I bet those arabs behind the Sheik are armed to the teeth.

You don't wanna mess with those feckers.

Lapin

Luckily for The Queen, the Normandy Landings in WWII didn't take place on the 7th of June.

The commemorations would clash with the Derby !

Harry Angstrom

Lapin wrote: »

Luckily for The Queen, the Normandy Landings in WWII didn't take place on the 7th of June.

The commemorations would clash with the Derby !

She probably would've sent Charlie off to France.

Lapin

Geoffrey Chaucer E/W.