Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer/Autumn/Winter 2014-15

road_high

A few rumbles here in Kilkenny city the past few minutes. Not surprised, it's been very hot and heavy out.

maquiladora

A few days away but Saturday is looking interesting. Plume setup could see some severe storms over in the eastern UK with a lesser risk here but still a decent chance of some sparks.

V_Moth

Large cell moving into south Dublin from Wicklow and just heard first (distant) rumbles.

V_Moth

Several rumbles now here (near Shankill), rain getting heavier.

V_Moth

Heavy rain and the odd rumble now.

V_Moth

No more sparks since the last post - just heavy rain. Looks like there might be another cell building behind the one over S Dublin.

MiNdGaM3

Storm just passing Cahir now, with some very heavy rain. Plenty of thunder, but only saw 2 flashes. Some nice structure visible though.

Darwin

Just had a short but intense hail shower (West Laois), fairly ominous looking returns on the rainfall radar over Kilkenny moving north-eastwards.

tylercollins

3/4 confirmed tornadoes/landsports along with hail, torrential rain, thunder & lightning just North East of Lough Neagh in Northern Ireland.

highdef

Going by the radar returns, most likely a fully fledged tornado. The net weather radar was showing colours that I have never seen in this country at the north and north west end of Lough Neagh....almost to the top of the scale and it would indicate some areas experiencing rainfall rates of up to 200mm/hr between around 19:15 - 19:30 :eek:

Hal1

Wow holy sheet they are some great captures.

mallards

I seen it, I seen it!
I was looking from Pomeroy in Tyrone towards the North West top of the Lough this evening and got a couple of pics. The clouds looked nasty!

Hal1

Nice feckin wall cloud .

Harps

I was at Belfast International Airport until 6.30 yesterday evening, missed it by an hour

Hopefully Saturdays potential holds up over here though not too hopeful

maquiladora

Saturday still looking good for severe thunderstorm potential for the UK. We are a bit too far west for these kind for plume setups, but still a chance of a few storms breaking out. Should feel humid overnight Friday into Saturday.

Harps

Just into hi res range and it's showing CAPE of over 2500J/kg and a LI of -8 right over me with plenty of precipitation. I know how fickle thunderstorm forecasts can be so far too early to get excited but certainly potential there for a good plume event

snowstreams

On that map it still looks like the west midlands of Ireland could get a few thunderstorms?
I knew there was a chance when I saw Siobhan Ryan mention humid weather coming up from Biscay. Pity were too far west though.

maquiladora

snowstreams wrote: »

On that map it still looks like the west midlands of Ireland could get a few thunderstorms?
I knew there was a chance when I saw Siobhan Ryan mention humid weather coming up from Biscay. Pity were too far west though.

A few thundery showers look possible in the midlands and west, but if things do kick off the real action will be across the water.

tylercollins

Who wants to go halfs on ferry to England? I'll drive

£150 return from Belfast to Cairnryn

goat2

what is the sign when we see a very red sky,

Rikand

Red sky at morning, neighbour take warning.
red sky at night, neighbour take flight!

odonopenmic

goat2 wrote: »

what is the sign when we see a very red sky,

Red sky at night, shepherds pie 😊

Oscar Bravo

Rainfall warning for the following areas issued by Met Eireann

Rainfall Warning for Cork, Kerry and Waterford.
Spells of heavy rain will affect southern coastal counties at times on Friday.
25 to 35mm of rain are likely.
Issued:
Thursday 05 June 2014 23:15

Valid:
Friday 06 June 2014 03:00 to Friday 06 June 2014 21:00

maquiladora

Looking a little better for thundery prospects here tomorrow, midlands to northern areas looking best at the moment.



Here's the plume pushing up tonight/early tomorow which should make things feel a bit humid.



Could be some real downpours in places regardless anyway.

pad199207

Met office for overnight tonight showing some heavy rain straddling the country

Harps

Heat has arrived here this morning, 24C today and higher tomorrow. Met forecast this morning says hot and humid tomorrow with a chance of hailstones, not a combination you see too often

Think we might miss out here but you never know in these situations so I'm looking forward to tomorrow

redsteveireland

If you played a drinking game which involved taking a shot every time the word thunderstorm is mentioned in recent daily forecasts there would be interesting results!

Iancar29

Widespread thunderstorms possible for midlands , east and north tomorrow . ( The south seeing things kick off but head north )



Conditions.

• Strong cape and LI values . With decent diurnal heating , 1200+ j/kg of cape is possible
• Cold pool of roughly -20C at 500hpa with surface temp/ dewpoint spread of 20/15c will lead to strong lapse rates.
• Jet streak ejecting over the country early morning , into the afternoon leading to strong deep layer shear . The timing not perfectly coinciding with maximum diurnal heating but with over 50knts some supercell characteristics are possible . Noting on hi res some decent vorticity early on , a funnel , waterspout is not out of the question ( bray flashback anyone ? )

So id expect to see some isolated thunderstorms early morning and then increasing throughout the day , some severe ones , with hail and gusty winds and CG lightning possible before evening . Concerned though about the amount of cloud cover possible from early morning activity in the east.


MCS ( mesoscale convective system ) for England , kicking off near London and moving north west. Would love to be over there .







My Estofex guess for tomorrow would be a level one for Ireland. ( CG lightning , hail and weak tornado possible )

England - High end level two . ( large hail , severe gusts , widespread CG lightning and tornadoes possible.

:cool:

Video

This is all well and good but wouldn't you guys kill for some high pressure for a few weeks, really close to us too, cant afford a holiday this year so i need it lol

Larbre34

Driving Dublin to Cork in the morning, can't believe I'll actually be driving away from the action!!:mad:

Iancar29

Video wrote: »

This is all well and good but wouldn't you guys kill for some high pressure for a few weeks, really close to us too,

:rolleyes:

maquiladora

pad199207 wrote: »

Met office for overnight tonight showing some heavy rain straddling the country

Thats the cold front. Should bring some very heavy rain as it passes.

Storm 10

Maq what are the chances of storms in the West tomorrow

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

Maq what are the chances of storms in the West tomorrow

Some heavy showers should pop up around there. Some of them likely to be thundery. It's pot luck after that.

chris2007

What are the chances of Dublin seen some thunderstorms tomorrow?

whitebriar

chris2007 wrote: »

What are the chances of Dublin seen some thunderstorms tomorrow?

A few bangs are possible(more than likely actually)throughout leinster including Dublin over the next few days.
Its not impossible.
Pin pointing where except at short notice is difficult.
You may see one or someone up the road may instead.
Thats the way it works.
Keep your ears peeled I suppose.

maquiladora

Latest 12Z GFS has downgraded the potential for severe storms in the UK. No real change for here though.

Harps

Looks like it could be an interesting day on both sides of the Irish Sea now tomorrow, quite a big shift in the forecast since yesterday. A bit of a downgrade over here though actually better imby, hard to know if it'll mainly just be heavy rain but the local BBC forecast mentioned the possibility of 'spectacular lightning shows' tonight and tomorrow morning and the met office forecast says hail and frequent lightning

Euro4 model is promising for Ireland as well, nothing organised like in England but a lot of very heavy showers showing behind the front so potential for some widespread storms

As always, things could go belly up but I don't think I'll be getting much sleep tonight!

Bejubby

Harps wrote: »

Looks like it could be an interesting day on both sides of the Irish Sea now tomorrow, quite a big shift in the forecast since yesterday. A bit of a downgrade over here though actually better imby, hard to know if it'll mainly just be heavy rain but the local BBC forecast mentioned the possibility of 'spectacular lightning shows' tonight and tomorrow morning and the met office forecast says hail and frequent lightning

Euro4 model is promising for Ireland as well, nothing organised like in England but a lot of very heavy showers showing behind the front so potential for some widespread storms

As always, things could go belly up but I don't think I'll be getting much sleep tonight!

Hi.
Is that euro 4 forecast for tonight in ireland?
Thanks

pad199207

Strike off the Wexford Coast

Supercell

Crazy mild outside tonight, 16.8C and rising at 23:00, warmest part of the day, incredible.

maquiladora

Supercell wrote: »

Crazy mild outside tonight, 16.8C and rising at 23:00, warmest part of the day, incredible.

It's 20 in is some places in Wales at the moment. Getting licked by a tongue of warm air.

vickers209

A level 1 was issued for England mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail and to the lesser degree for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

... England ...

A short-wave trough is forecast to cross the region by 15 UTC Wednesday, so that any severe activity will likely happen by this time. GFS and ECMWF are in strong disagreement regarding the timing and degree of evolving instability - while ECMWF simulates the highest instability during the morning hours, GFS counts with the afternoon destabilisation. The main culprit behind this disagreement may be the amount of morning convective debris and subsequent stratiform precipitation. Nevertheless, as strong mid-level flow overspreads the region, DLS values above 20 m/s may overlap with at least marginal CAPE values. This would suggest some potential for well organised DMC, including supercells, which may pose the hazards of large hail or marginally severe wind gusts. Especially in the morning hours, stronger low-level flow will contribute to LLS above 10 m/s, so if some supercells manage to develop at that time (and provided they are not elevated), isolated tornado event is not ruled out. As storms cluster thanks to the forcing by the approaching short-wave, excessive precipitation threat will be enhanced.

redsteveireland

Some activity in the Irish sea, just off Wexford coast.

highdef

And another due east of Gorey just now

vickers209

Think just seen flash and heard a distant rumble in wicklow town

vickers209

Defo lightning just seen forks across the sky

EDIT
And again

EDIT EDIT
Heavy rain now more fork lightning thunder getting louder

vickers209

Just stoped as quick ??

Supercell

Heavy rain now in Loughlinstown, hoping for some fireworks.

rain is battering down in D 15

sparrowcar

Lovely active cell heading up through Wales at the moment.