Derby 2014

UrbanSea

Continuing on from the posts in the Australia thread. Who do you fancy

fizzyboy

Expect a big run from Kingston Hill if ground stays soft...Guineas looking a hot race especially after The Grey Gatsby....

FIVE2_THREE

If the going is soft Orchestra will storm home.

andyman

WESTERN HYMN!!

diomed

Geoffrey Chaucer

king Henry 14

Fascinating Rock e/w

Dubron

Was impressed with Orchestra at Chester, still a fair price at 16s so that's what I'm on.

Johner

Moore is on Geoffrey Chaucer.

Watching the Derrinstown again he really got an utter toilet ride from Joey.

Johner

Joseph O’Brien – Australia
Ryan Moore – Geoffrey Chaucer
Seamus Heffernan – Orchestra
Colm O’Donoghue – Kingfisher

Soft Falling Rain

Will probably just back GC each way and leave it at that. I feel a little uneasy about piling in on Aus, might have something to do with piling in on DA last year though. :pac:

tryfix

I try to look at who I could visualize winning the race.

Australia has the form and I believed him all along, I am loath to desert him, but the vibes aren't great.

The Moore factor makes Geoffrey Chaucer a real threat, but the Derrinstown form is meh.

Kingston Hill has the kind of stable confidence and form behind him which should make him second favourite in my book, at least on soft ground it should.

Orchestra or True Story wouldn't be a shock result.

The rest are hard to see in the winners spot, Fascinating Rock is quite interesting but Weld's record in the Derby is crap.

Hulk Hands

Geoffrey Chaucer for my biggest AP win ever. And to come in here and gloat about this from June 18th last year

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Next years Derby winner about to make his debut here at Leopardstown. You heard it here first

Slattsy

Snow Sky out.

UrbanFret

Hopefully we'll be spared another barrow full of ****e from o Brien for example
"Australia was sick six weeks before the Guineas" or
“I left Tapestry a bit light and it was trainer error,”
or last Sundays gem after punters had piled on war envoy
“I might have left him a bit short. We were looking at Ascot on the way here and he got a bit tired."
Enlightening punters after the event, disgraceful.

Slattsy

How did you get those facey things??

Limestone1

UrbanFret wrote: »

Hopefully we'll be spared another barrow full of ****e from o Brien for example
"Australia was sick six weeks before the Guineas" or
“I left Tapestry a bit light and it was trainer error,”
or last Sundays gem after punters had piled on war envoy
“I might have left him a bit short. We were looking at Ascot on the way here and he got a bit tired."
Enlightening punters after the event, disgraceful.

Look to the positive ....
Istabraq - "He'll destroy them "
Australia - O'Brien has indicated the horse, a son of 2001 Derby winner Galileo and 2004 Oaks victor Ouija Board, is the best he has trained

UrbanFret

Slattsy wrote: »

How did you get those facey things??

http://forums.somethingawful.com/misc.php?action=showsmilies

ChuckProphet

Couldn't be backing Australia with JOB and a big field...he'll run into traffic problems as usual. Ebanoran e/w for me.

Bateman

On GC at 16s and also looking to back him e/w tonight (he's a model to get Pricewised).

UrbanSea

Bateman wrote: »

On GC at 16s and also looking to back him e/w tonight (he's a model to get Pricewised).

if you're on at 16s at what price does he become underpriced? I'd have thought a few weeks ago

Bateman

You have a point. Maybe I am subsonsciously trying to load up because I missed the brief 25s after the Derrinstown. Vibes on Australia just not great though

dicky dunne

Gosden seemed very bullish about Australia, basically said all of them are running for place money. To be fair he seemed quite sincere when saying it and believed what he was saying.

Slattsy

Only the ground (monsoon due) will stop Australia winning i hope/think.

Gringo180

This is the best Derby in a long long time. You can make a good case for half of the field.

Gatame

Ground changed to good/gfip there now

diomed

Geoffrey Chaucer

BorneTobyWilde

Romsdal 25-1 & Kingston Hill 8-1
I like both EW

unitedrover

Australia Australia Australia

accap1f8

There's a fairly big drift on Australia now. Is he that bad on soft or is it unknown? William hill have him at 5/2. Can't go near him now.

That price immediately disappeared back to 7/4.

40now

Thanks lads some nice info in here.

Soft Falling Rain

Just don't have the stomach to back Aus with JOB on board. He'll probably hack in mind but I'll be happier watching the race with a nominal bet on Chaucer rather than a heavy one on Aus. True Story is one that is also nagging me.

nuckeythompson

mid morning showers forecast. I still cant see beyond fascinating rock at 14/1 great value. Australia is so overhyped. With AOB saying he is probably the best he has trained is complete poppycock.

Harry Angstrom

Australia 2/1 with Ladbrokes is starting to look like value, even allowing for the Joseph factor.

accap1f8

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Australia 2/1 with Ladbrokes is starting to look like value, even allowing for the Joseph factor.

I might get on at this. The risk of showers isn't as bad now. Is Ladbrokes open at 10?

Just went back to 7/4. Doubt I'll back at less than 2/1

Francie Barrett

Two bets for me.

Ebanoran my primary bet at 16/1, hoping for a bit of rain so it can turn this race into a bit of a slog which I feel suits it.

Have backed Our Channel to place at 25/1. Unexposed type who has a nice draw and whose trainer does well at the Derby. No chance to win, but may just squeak a place at a big price.

Soft Falling Rain

Newsboy in The Mirror is going with GC while having a rant at the "Ballydoyle hype machine" behind Australia.....Australia to hack up so. :P

Harry Angstrom

accap1f8 wrote: »

I might get on at this. The risk of showers isn't as bad now. Is Ladbrokes open at 10?

Just went back to 7/4. Doubt I'll back at less than 2/1

Opened at 10am but the fcukers had it cut to 7/4 already :mad:

mailburner

never found it as hard to pick one for this race

have true story backed at 11/2 pre dante
with with geoffrey at 10s last night


never great to hear the likes of hammond or newsboy is picking
same though
at least hammond has jinxed kingston hill

Slattsy

It's pissing down at the course.

Australia will drift big time I reckon, once the ground changes to soft. 3/1 sp!!! What!

Gringo180

Ebanoran and Romsdal each way for me.

MonkstownHoop

Alex Hammond has put a hex on GC

kfallon

Stable runners have been awful the last few days plus the rain means it's just a watching brief for me, not going near Australia!

Gatame

Speaking of Australia I'll be heading off there for a nice little Holiday if Arod wins the Derby! Looks like the extra 2f will definitely suit after he stayed on so well in the Dante behind TGG, who went on to win the french derby, we know he can handle cut after that race too. I don't know too much about breeding but I know JB had said Teofilo was going to be an even better 3yo over the mile and a half, and after trading leather's Irish derby win last year maybe he can get himself an English one to go with it. Trainer had the 2007 winner Authorized, who won the Dante (Arod second) before going on to win the Derby. 20/1; Best of luck chaps!

mohican22

Its on the soft side of good after the 6mm of rain they have had this morning,awaiting Andrew Cooper Clerk of the Course next update on twitter as he is presently walking the course

mohican22

https://twitter.com/EpsomRacecourse

Its Australia for me

Gringo180

Gatame wrote: »

Speaking of Australia I'll be heading off there for a nice little Holiday if Arod wins the Derby! Looks like the extra 2f will definitely suit after he stayed on so well in the Dante behind TGG, who went on to win the french derby, we know he can handle cut after that race too. I don't know too much about breeding but I know JB had said Teofilo was going to be an even better 3yo over the mile and a half, and after trading leather's Irish derby win last year maybe he can get himself an English one to go with it. Trainer had the 2007 winner Authorized, who won the Dante (Arod second) before going on to win the Derby. 20/1; Best of luck chaps!

Was looking at Arod myself until I seen Spencer was on board

accap1f8

Is there any comparison between this and the Irish 2000 guineas. Because kingman and Australia are very close and he won the guineas very easy. Or is there no comparison at all in the 2 races?

Harry Angstrom

accap1f8 wrote: »

Is there any comparison between this and the Irish 2000 guineas. Because kingman and Australia are very close and he won the guineas very easy. Or is there no comparison at all in the 2 races?

It shows that the Newmarket Guineas was a very good race. The subsequent Prix du Jockey Club winner was back in tenth.

You can get 2-1 Australia in many places now.

I'm in the John Oxx camp each way

sdoc13

Ebanoran ew for me. Oxx has a great record in the race and the extra 2 furlongs should help.

tryfix

The lack of confidence behind everything in the race is annoying. Australia is home and hosed on form, but the vibes are not good. Neither is there a stand out alternative, Kingston Hill has shown the class and Stamina as a 2yo to win a Derby but he's not exactly being backed off the boards and I don't recall a horse from as far back as 8th in a 2,000 Guineas winning a Derby.

It's a coin toss as who to pick out most of the others. Orchestra is calling, but Romsdal who nearly beat him isn't even the most fancied of the Gosden runners and Western Hymn the more fancied Gosden Horse isn't exactly being championed anywhere. He's a big old boat of a horse with good form who hasn't been tested, a bit like Taghrooda but can't see him doing much more than placing.

Australia by default.