Friday 16th

Francie Barrett

A feast of fine racing tomorrow, but predictably enough, my only pick for the day comes in the last at Dundalk. Asian Wing is out again tomorrow, and for the masochists like myself and Urban Sea, this represents a fantastic chance to lose our money betting opportunity. Horse has won at course and distance twice before off a mark of 54 and 59 and once at a furlong less off of 47. Ross Coakley took the ride on all three winning occasions and takes the ride again tomorrow, retaining his 7lb claiming allowance.

Just last month, a lot of these horses raced each other, Asian Wing beat 2 and was only a length behind the other two. Tomorrow though, the weights will all move in favour of Asian Wing.

Horse beat Melanippe carrying 10lbs less - tomorrow it carries 19lbs less.
Horse was beaten 1/2l by General Bunching carrying 6lbs less, tomorrow it carries 14lbs less.
Horse was beaten by 1l by Whatever It Takes carrying carrying 8lbs less - tomorrow it carries 20lbs less.
Horse beat Armed Guard with 2lbs less - tomorrow it carries 9lbs less.

Even if Asian Wing hasn't shown it lately, a year ago when it won, it was winning off very competitive times over the distance here. So in terms of a potential speed rating, Asian Wing should be quick enough to beat this lot, especially carrying such little weight. No odds up yet, but reckon this could go very close tomorrow and is at least worth a EW shot.

Best Early Price - 16/1 Corals.

UrbanSea

One I'm waiting for Francie don't think he tried last time, I'll only back him if he is backed. Drift said it all the last day 12 out to about 36.

And he is drawn widest of all. Not too off putting because he is held up I just wonder would they keep him for one more race

ste2010

2 for me tomorrow
Party rock and Pure faith at aintree

tomaussie

DANCE AND DANCE in the 5.05 at Newmarket looks the tickets. Great form in the book and has been unlucky more than once. Ideal conditions tomorrow and I think and with a bit of luck in running should win it late and fast and at 5/1 is a solid EW selection.

MEDIA HYPE in the 2.15 at York is the other one like. Again, has the form in the book and has conditions to suit tomorrow for the first time in a while. 40/1 is just too big. The more I look at the race the more confident I get.

Richard Hughes has some decent book of rides in Newbury today. I might do a small lucky 15 with them

ETA I did a 25c heinz to cover all 6 rides.

BumperD

Going to back these in ew singles/double today - Personal Opinion Newbury, Sarista at York.

UrbanSea

tomaussie wrote: »

DANCE AND DANCE in the 5.05 at Newmarket looks the tickets. Great form in the book and has been unlucky more than once. Ideal conditions tomorrow and I think and with a bit of luck in running should win it late and fast and at 5/1 is a solid EW selection.

MEDIA HYPE in the 2.15 at York is the other one like. Again, has the form in the book and has conditions to suit tomorrow for the first time in a while. 40/1 is just too big. The more I look at the race the more confident I get.

Dance and dance possibly the biggest cliff horse in training

tomaussie

UrbanSea wrote: »

Dance and dance possibly the biggest cliff horse in training

Doh. This will be the first time I've dabbled though.

BumperD

Cliff horse indeed but no more for me. I've backed dance & dance a number of times with a degreee of confidence. And on each occasion, he didn't fire & I couldn't understand why so I cannot touch him but he'll pop up again sometime at a big price.

BumperD

Speaking of cliff horses, Rossom or Aidans Saptapadi runs in that 2.15 at York

longshotvalue

BumperD wrote: »

Speaking of cliff horses, Rossom or Aidans Saptapadi runs in that 2.15 at York

I presume he will win when i'm not on.. he is surly been readied for something.. Silly looking ride last time out and wouldn't be the first..

BumperD

I'll have to stick €1 on him just for a token bet. I'm not great at picking well handicapped horses so tend to note any you guys pick out & if I fancy them, have a bet. And I did fancy him a few times - frustrating horse.

UrbanSea

Is 29.14 25 pounds I'm assuming

UrbanSea

A speculative punt, but Penglai Pavillion could be worth an each way stepped up in trip in the Cup. 33/1

Bangor Billy

Lovely sunshine and three days racing ahead - Aintree tonight, Bangor tomorrow and a point to point at Knutsford on Sunday. What could be better?

Francie Barrett

Denis Hogan has one over in York today in the 2:15 called Shalaman. Best price is currently 18/1 and you'd have to think that he's not sending the horse over for the fun of it. Horse looks very nicely handicapped, should go well on the good ground and we all know Hogan loves to get a big priced winner in England. Certainly looks better value that the favourite.

Francie Barrett

Wachman has Lahinch Classics going in the 2:00 at Newbury. Horse finished a very respectable third place behind My Titania (who is obviously a class horse) and Afternoon Sunlight, which has gone on to with a group 3 race. Best price is 10/1 which looks like decent value given that this horse has shown as much as anything else here (if anything, its form holds up a little better).

skippymac6

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Wachman has Lahinch Classics going in the 2:00 at Newbury. Horse finished a very respectable third place behind My Titania (who is obviously a class horse) and Afternoon Sunlight, which has gone on to with a group 3 race. Best price is 10/1 which looks like decent value given that this horse has shown as much as anything else here (if anything, its form holds up a little better).

Yep I've been following Lahinch Classics' entries alright and will be on today. Also in the bumper at Kilbeggan Gone Platinum has some good form behind Western Boy and Wrath of Titans in bumpers and if he can overcome his longish layoff (since nov) he could go close at 5/1

Francie Barrett

One thing I've noticed, but Robson Aguiar rides Doux Douce this evening at Dundalk. Why does he not get a claiming allowance if he's never won a race in Ireland/UK? Has he been prolific elsewhere?

rossom

Shalaman looks a cracking e/w at 18s alright. Been beaten less than 2L and placed of 8 of last 9 starts winning 2 and looks sure to run another big one as he hasn't stopped progressing yet.

Seems a very hard horse to win with though. Will wait to see if I can get 3s on a place.

qc3

Friday pricewise
Saptapadi unlikely to
get stuck in the mire

If I were a bookmaker, I would make it my business to obtain a prime pitch at York racecourse. So far this week there have been plenty of unfathomable results, with only one horse priced shorter than 9-2 winning and that is continuing a trend that has been happening for a few years, writes Tom Segal.

My theory is that loads of runners simply can't get hold of the ground up the home straight and the only horses you can back with confidence on the Knavesmire are ones that have run well at the track before.

For those reasons I would be nervous about backing anything at a short price, especially one having only his fourth start, as is the case with Arab Spring in the sportingbet.com Jorvik Handicap (2.15).

There is a good chance Arab Spring is a class above his rivals - and he certainly looked a Group horse in the making when running out an easy winner on soft ground at Doncaster recently.

However, he is up 11lb in a better race and, at around 6-4, I would prefer to have a dart at Saptapadi, who always runs well at York and is down to a workable mark.

Off today's mark of 88 over course and distance last season, Saptapadi looked a bit unlucky in a competitive race won by Lahaag and, provided he has a decent pace to run at, he should run really well.

Brian Ellison's gelding had a nice warm-up run over too far a trip at Ripon recently and that should have put him spot-on for today's assignment. At 18-1 he's a value poke against the favourite.

The Sky Bet Yorkshire Cup (2.45) looks really hard to solve and I wouldn't be surprised if there were a shock. However, guessing which one will provide it is not easy and therefore I would rather have a couple of bets in the Irish Champions Weekend Fillies' Stakes (3.15).

Alan Jarvis has been in the headlines this week and only has a few weeks of a long career to go, but he had a nice winner at the track yesterday and his horses always seem to go well on the Knavesmire.

Lady Lara, under Kieren Fallon, is the one I like most in this as she has already run well in two top contests this season and looks sure to be suited by a mile with some give underfoot.

Last time she stumbled badly entering the Dip in the Guineas and had no chance when held up in the rear in a really slowly run race.
She ran as well as could be expected given those circumstances and, prior to that, she wasn't beaten far in a Group 3 at Newbury. She is just about the form horse on those efforts and makes plenty of appeal at 10-1.

I also can't resist a small bet on Pelerin at the prices. She has inexperience to overcome and I have no idea if she will handle the ground, but Marco Botti has always rated her extremely highly and ran her in the Nell Gwyn despite her having only an all-weather maiden win to her name.

She was badly drawn on that occasion and ran a bit free, but she bounced back in handicap company at Thirsk last time, easily beating a highly regarded rival. Botti said afterwards he knew she was the best-handicapped horse in his yard and that she was at least Listed class. Today she gets the chance to prove it.

The big threat is Radiator, who looked special when winning her maiden by 15 lengths, and next time she was a short price to beat the Guineas 1-2 Miss France and Lightning Thunder. She did not run her race but could still be really good. It will be interesting to see how she goes in the market.

Today's bets

Saptapadi
2.15 York
1pt win at 18-1 with Hills (16-1 generally)

Lady Lara
3.15 York
1pt win at 10-1 generally

Pelerin
3.15 York
1pt win at 12-1 with Paddy Power (10-1 with bet365)

Francie Barrett

Bit of cash for Asian Wing now...

the groutch

Is there not always money for him though?
There's some horses, King Vuvuzela for example, that I've just started ignoring any market support.

Anyway my one for today is Dougal 3:25 Newmarket
The favorite Justice Good has the benefit of a run when they were only a length apart last time, and think with Dougal having 2 runs under his belt and stepped up to 6f can reverse the form.

tomaussie

Not quite sure why GLENS DIAMOND is 20/1 to repeat last years success in the 2.45 at York. An easy EW decision made.

UrbanSea

No he is rarely backed. Was backed a few runs back with Smullen on. If there is a huge drift this evening it'll tell your chances before the off

BumperD

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Wachman has Lahinch Classics going in the 2:00 at Newbury. Horse finished a very respectable third place behind My Titania (who is obviously a class horse) and Afternoon Sunlight, which has gone on to with a group 3 race. Best price is 10/1 which looks like decent value given that this horse has shown as much as anything else here (if anything, its form holds up a little better).

Missed her last night when I was looking through the cards. Stuck her up here when she ran in Dundalk. The two I picked out for today are easy in the market so my confidence is dampened. But I like this filly's run against my Titania (who was 3rd fav for the 1,000 g before a bad scope 48 hours before race ruled her out) so I will have to back her ew.

BumperD

Tiger Cliff rarely runs a poor race, has CD form and runs well fresh. 12\1 will do for me 2:45 York.

rossom

For anyone interested about the horse Laurelita I put up Yesterday who ran like a drain.

"Yesterday at Salisbury. Laurelita is a very classy filly. We have very high hopes for her and, despite yesterday's reverse, we still do. But Classic aspirations are on hold. We have a reason for her poor showing yesterday, and nothing that will affect her going forward, but frustratingly yesterday's events have put us on the back foot"

That's the thoughts of trainer George Baker. I've always found his blog to be a very frank and honest assessment. Given that it seems the yard genuinely had Epsom Oaks aspirations, she definitely looks worth following as she'll surely fall from a mark of 82 for Yesterday's performance.

BumperD

Spruce betting in shop 3.50 York money back 2nd for those having a crack at that big field handicap

Luap

Like the look of Patience Alexander even with the drift out to 15/2.

Small win stake.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Wachman has Lahinch Classics going in the 2:00 at Newbury. Horse finished a very respectable third place behind My Titania (who is obviously a class horse) and Afternoon Sunlight, which has gone on to with a group 3 race. Best price is 10/1 which looks like decent value given that this horse has shown as much as anything else here (if anything, its form holds up a little better).

Beaten on the line by a neck

rossom

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that 3.50 York Dinneratmidnight 11/1 is quite a bit better than a mark of 81. Will take a big performance to win this big, competitive handicap on just his 2nd career start though.

bmcc10

Great run by Gospel Choir

BorneTobyWilde

Dutch Courage ew 3.15
10-1
Hard race to call.

Luap

E/w on Lustrous 20/1.

Luap

Nice way to celebrate my 2,000th post with a 20/1 winner!

rossom

Great shout Luap. Looking forward to the 10,000th post!

Luap

rossom wrote: »

Great shout Luap. Looking forward to the 10,000th post!

Watch this space!

BumperD

BumperD wrote: »

Tiger Cliff rarely runs a poor race, has CD form and runs well fresh. 12\1 will do for me 2:45 York.

Ran really well. Happy with ew 3rd

Johner

That was some performance from G Force.

TheTorment

TheTorment wrote: »

Richard Hughes has some decent book of rides in Newbury today. I might do a small lucky 15 with them

ETA I did a 25c heinz to cover all 6 rides.

3 up and 1 to go.

Get the fûck in there Richard!!!w

25c Heinz for €14.25

Returns €200.83

That will do Richard. That'll do

Dice75

TheTorment wrote: »

Get the fûck in there Richard!!!

Followed this with a 50c Heinz = €454.

Some profitable drifters

wpwp Sir

Francie Barrett

Well done lads.

BumperD

Party Rock goes tonight in aintree and was going to win lto. CD winner and fav at 7\2. Also like seeyouincoppers in the lucky last at Dundalk, was tipped up here for aintree but blew up . Its flat run behind the well handicapped dark crusader looks good now and if he's ready, he would blow these exposed horses away. Going to have a go at him 8\1 ew.

BorneTobyWilde

Local Flier 6.45 20-1
Armed Guard 9.15 7-1

Single & ew double

Francie Barrett

Johann Strauss as short as 1/4 in the opener at Dundalk. Lump on lads :pac:

NaiveMelodies

Punta Marraqui fairly well treated for me in the 6.45, nice bet at 8s.

Following the lads on Asian Wing, can't argue with the write up.

ste2010

Party rock comes in it'll be hookers, monocles and pipes for the next few weeks!

Grape tree flame and McManus horse look overpriced in the next. Mccoys mount is severely under priced

rossom

Party Rock was one I put up last time at 33/1 and I was fairly gutted when he took a horrible, horrible fall at the 2nd last as I think he would have gone extremely close. He won this contest last year, looks on a workable mark of 135 and if that fall didn't leave any mental or physical scars he should take a bit of beating.

I also like Candlish's other runner tonight in the shape of 8.25 Aintree Wake Your Dreams 12/1. A winner of 3 Novice Hurdles and a Bumper, the unexposed 6 year old has an incredibly likeable grit and determination about him and I was very impressed by his resolution when winning twice from the front at Market Rasen last August. On the back of a 231 day absence, Wake Your Dreams made his handicap debut off his current mark of 125 over fixed brush hurdles in a hot handicap at Haydock last month where I thought he shaped very well. Unusually not sent off in front, he shaped if he needed the run as he finished an admirable 8L 3rd (miles clear of the rest) behind a couple of horses that I think were very well handicapped in the shape of Horizontal Speed and Horatio Hornblower and I thought it was a very pleasing effort. Sure to have come on for the run, Wake Your Dreams steps up in trip to extended 3m which I think will suit him really well and I definitely feel a mark of 125 is one he can win off. In a race where not many like to get on with it, I'll be absolutely stunned if Sean Quinlan doesn't send Wake Your Dreams on in front and I think he may get an easy lead which will certainly help him. Additionally, the horse seems to relish when an opponent tries to pass him and I think it will take a well handicapped horse to beat him. With ground to suit, I'm very sweet on Wake Your Dreams' chances and I think 12/1 is a superb price about him.

ste2010

ste2010 wrote: »

Mccoys mount is severely under priced

Obviously not :-)