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Saturday 3rd

  • 02-05-2014 7:56pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭


    Am I mad to think Mikael D'Haguenet has a good chance tomorrow?


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,886 ✭✭✭MoscowFlyer


    So is Kingman basically guaranteed to be a NR tomorrow with the ground being on the good side of firm?

    Also think Pearl Secret will stamp his authority tomorrow. Available at 7/2 - Doubt that lasts long


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Am I mad to think Mikael D'Haguenet has a good chance tomorrow?

    I'm on at 20's. He has generally been pretty good over hurdles and with Ger Fox taking 7lb off I think he has a good chance!

    I'm probably blinded by love.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭sdoc13


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Am I mad to think Mikael D'Haguenet has a good chance tomorrow?

    Was thinkibg the same. Also had the madness doubts. Think 20s is bout 8 points too big.

    Also really like war command in the guineas


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,068 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Like war command for the guineas as well, King man a bit short with doubts about the ground.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 ✭✭✭sonnky


    Mullins runs 9 in the 5.30 tomorrow.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 844 ✭✭✭qc3


    Saturday Pricewise

    8-1 War capable of a command performance

    THERE aren't many better days racing all year than Qipco 2,000 Guineas day at Newmarket. It's the day all the talking stops and while Kingman has looked an absolute superstar, this afternoon we will find out for sure, writes Tom Segal.

    The clock watchers have been raving about him since his debut and they were proven spot on when he ran away with the Greenham on his three-year-old reappearance. As always with a winner of a trial, there are naysayers who try to crab the form, but Kingman could only win in a canter and he is certainly the horse to beat.

    However, given his injury issues over the winter, there is the nagging doubt that Newmarket's undulations might not be ideal for him and, make no mistake, this is a very good Guineas.

    I still expect him to win, but I don't think it will be easy and the bet has to be War Command at 8-1. For the last few months all the talk has been about Australia being the best horse at Ballydoyle, but he certainly wasn't the best two-year-old in the yard on form - that honour went to War Command.

    The day he won the Coventry at Royal Ascot, I was convinced I had seen the Guineas winner and he did little afterwards to suggest that impression was wrong. He has proven form at the track, having won the Dewhurst, and with the ground very much in his favour he's the most likely runner to beat Kingman.

    Of the rest it would be unwise to underestimate Toormore, who has done nothing wrong, or Kingston Hill, who has been working well, but having suggested backing the Spanish horse Noozhoh Canarias a few weeks ago, he still strikes me as being underestimated.

    While the Guineas is all about potential, the horse who has achieved the most running at Newmarket is undoubtedly Trading Leather. Jim Bolger's colt won the Irish Derby and was second in the King George last season and he really should have a big class edge on his rivals in the Jockey Club Stakes.

    I will be surprised if he's beaten, although he might not have things all his own way as Gospel Choir ran an eyecatching trial over an inadequate trip at this track a few weeks ago.

    It's hard to see a shock occurring in the Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes, a race in which the sponsors have two good chances with Pearl Secret and Hot Streak. They will have to A-game to beat the top-class Sole Power, but they are the up and coming younger horses and might easily be up to it.

    The Qatar Racing Suffolk Stakes (2.05) looks extremely tricky. Rock Choir has the entries to suggest she is better than a handicapper and William Haggas often runs one of his well-handicapped horses in this race, so it certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see her win.

    However, at the prices I prefer the Queen's Bold Sniper and Niceofyoutotellme.

    The latter always goes well fresh and should get the race run to suit, as he needs to come off a strong pace on decent ground. Niceofyoutotellme's form tailed off last season but this will have been the target for some time and I expect him to improve again this season.

    Bold Sniper is dropping in trip but he has always been considered really classy and a mile and a half was stretching him last season.
    There is a chance he might just need the run, but the stable won the race with a similar type in Confront a few years ago and Bold Sniper has the potential to become a Group performer this season.

    Today's bets

    Bold Sniper
    2.05 Newmarket
    1pt win at 10-1 with Betfred, Boylesports and Hills


    Niceofyoutotellme
    2.05 Newmarket
    1pt win at 16-1 with bet365 (15-1 Hills)


    War Command
    3.50 Newmarket
    1pt win at 8-1 with Bet365, Betfred and Hills

    Big scoop 6 on offer tomorrow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Roachdale House is out again tomorrow.

    Please don't slaughter me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 844 ✭✭✭qc3


    He also give 3 more but no write up's
    4.55 Pun chartreux

    5.30 Pun valmy baie

    11.24 CHURCHILL DOWNS medal count


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 ✭✭✭sonnky


    Would there be a draw bias at Newmarket for the Guineas?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Has anyone got any thoughts on the Kentucky Derby?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    I thought tiger roll was a bit of value at 9/4. Think he will go off a good bit less than that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,031 ✭✭✭✭ShaneU


    Went with Toormore at 17/2, expecting a good run


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Went with the well handicapped Fort Bastion at 10s at Thirsk in a decent handicap


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 186 ✭✭bookman2


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Went with the well handicapped Fort Bastion at 10s at Thirsk in a decent handicap

    I have invested on this one too earlier - best of luck!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 186 ✭✭bookman2


    I have also backed the well handicapped circumvent in the first at Newmarket - I suppose will be doing well to get one of them placed!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Red Baron went straight into my notebook after fairly annihilating them at Doncaster last week and he runs again in the 5.20 at Thirsk tomorrow. Trainer commented after the Doncaster race that he expects him to develop into a smart horse this year. Should improve for the better ground tomorrow and although the opposition is big in quantity it is limited in quality. Still some 8/1 available and it will take a good one to beat him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    How in the name of jaysus is Ertijaal 33-1 in the Guineas should be at least 12s.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭the groutch


    I'd say tomorrow could be a going day for Hisabaat, and Regal Encore is stupidly well handicapped in the same race, so dutched the two at about 9/2 and did the reverse forcecast.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Gringo180 wrote: »
    How in the name of jaysus is Ertijaal 33-1 in the Guineas should be at least 12s.

    Didn't he win a handicap and a woeful listed race, he has a lot to find


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Didn't he win a handicap and a woeful listed race, he has a lot to find

    Won a listed race from a horrible draw fto then a conditions race on his second start. But I think he will fair better back on the turf, he ran a bit green on his debut and was only beaten a neck by Toormore. I think he is lively outsider.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 145 ✭✭Dubron


    Can't see Trading Leather (11/10) or Postponed (3/1) being beaten tomorrow, really strong on the two of them.

    Outstrip at 25/1 in a wide open Guineas looks the value bet to me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    I've both Australia and War Command backed tomorrow at much bigger prices so I'm happy enough.
    I do think Outstrip is overpriced.
    Don't fancy Toormore.

    Trading Leather tough to beat.

    Great to have the flat back, proper racing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭unitedrover


    Has anyone got any thoughts on the Kentucky Derby?

    If he breaks well then California Chrome should win. If he flops I'm not sure who'll win, maybe Samraat.


    http://touch.boards.ie/thread/post/90086074


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭the groutch


    I'd be worried that TL might need the run.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Really looking forward to this 2,000 Guineas, I had a nice bet on Toormore because I think Kingman has plenty to prove, but would be delighted if Kingman turned out to be a superstar.

    Australia's price held up remarkably well considering the received wisdom that he needs a trip and that the hyping up of his chances went very quiet once Kingman dazzled in the Greenham. That says a lot in my book, but I note his stablemate War Command is down to 5/1 with Ladbrokes, a price which is below the level his form justifies, so maybe something's up.. Kingman's price too has gone out a lot, which doesn't inspire confidence in him.

    The 2 French horses and the Spanish one might contain a surprise package in an average year, but hopefully this is an above average year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭NewApproach


    Despite already being on at 14/1 and 8/1, I plan on getting up bright and early to be ready to hoover up any 2/1 Kingman.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,474 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    I’ve limited time to day to go into detail

    Newmarket 2:40
    Sole Power
    easily has the best form in the race has his ideal conditions and should be shorter than 4/1 . 2 Points win 4/1 a few places

    Newmarket 2:05
    Strickly Silver
    looks the value here at a huge price. He has a decent course record and is down to a winnable mark. 1 Point EW 40/1 Betvictor and Betfair

    Thirsk 3:40
    I was kind of hoping Anderigo would be a bigger price but he looks to have been readied for this and is of a very winnable mark having been second in this last year of 5lbs higher. 9/1 still has a bit of value and he looks the most likely winner to me. 1 Point win 9/1 a few places

    I’m also going with a min bet on Osteopathic Remedy at a huge price he usually puts in a good run or two a year at a huge price and 33/1 is worth a small gamble. ½ Point win 33/1 Generally


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Where are you getting 4s sole power Aidan wouldn't mind some thought it was all gone


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,474 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Where are you getting 4s sole power Aidan wouldn't mind some thought it was all gone

    Its a while since i typed it up. 7/2 is fine he wins with the minimum of fuss ;-)..


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Took 7/2 with coral they have 18/5 win only but it's not guaranteed. Still think 7/2 is a good price couldn't remotely have Pearl Secret on this ground


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Bit surprised to see Be Positive out again today in the 2:30 at Punchestown (it won the first at Punchestown on Tuesday). I'd be incline to oppose it given that that this field looks a bit stronger than the horses it was up against on Tuesday.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,657 ✭✭✭brandon_flowers


    Technically it is tommorow but I'll stick it up here so lads don't miss it in the morning.

    Gordon Lord Byron goes in the Champions Mile at Sha Tin at 9.35 (GMT) tomorrow morning. Zac Purton HK champion jockey gets the ride and from 11/1 earlier in the week is now 7/1 with Corals and 5/1 with Boylesports. The favourite Able Friend (9/4) has won 3 times over C&D in the past 4 months and has a pretty good turn of foot judging by his last win a month ago. However his jockey for the last win Karis Teetan will ride Glorious Days who is second favourite (4/1).

    Main problem is the draw, GLB is drawn in 13 and no horse has ever won this race from a double figure draw. I saw an interview with Tom Hogan where he said he did some light work on the track yesterday morning and everything seems in order.

    Race card available here
    http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meeting/RaceCard/English/Local/20140504/ST/9

    Kentucky Derby on too, not much interest in it for me but the favourite looks a lay at such ridiculous short odds for a race like that.

    Now back to Punchestown and less of this flat malarky.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Kingman 2/1 will do for me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 145 ✭✭Dubron


    BumperD wrote: »
    Kingman 2/1 will do for me.
    9/4 with Bet 365, who appear to be best price every runner? I'll gladly take the 28/1 about Outstrip anyway!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 713 ✭✭✭newuser89


    6.15 Saint Cloud
    Nolohay 4/1
    Angus mc nae from racing uk tipped up this horse today.
    He was in France the last week and was interviewing the trainer and he seems confident it will win


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,909 ✭✭✭greenman09


    What's the story with kingman. Will hill doing 5/1 that he wins by 3 lengths or more. Is he that good? Seems high enough


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Red Baron went straight into my notebook after fairly annihilating them at Doncaster last week and he runs again in the 5.20 at Thirsk tomorrow. Trainer commented after the Doncaster race that he expects him to develop into a smart horse this year. Should improve for the better ground tomorrow and although the opposition is big in quantity it is limited in quality. Still some 8/1 available and it will take a good one to beat him.

    Any semblance of value is long gone now, as short as 5/2 with Laddies


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    As well as my Fort Bastion bet, took a chance on Mikael at Punchestown and Sole Power at Newmarket. Not having hefty bets, I've learned in the past nothing quite brings you down to earth following a big win by losing half the next day.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    25/1 Mikael with Stan James Urban


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Saw that alright Colonel. Took the 20s last night I'll leave it be. Couldn't get the e/w part on though, might just let the win part run


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 449 ✭✭hawkhead


    Red not Blue(13/2) 2-45 Uttoxeter.

    This one is now 12lbs below its last winning mark and has been running in better races than this one recently. The drying ground should be perfect today and he normally comes into form around this time of year having won three times in the summer of 2012. Everything is set for him to run a big race today


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,219 ✭✭✭Goldcupfav


    Not having a great week punting so hopefully one of these selections of mine goes in today.

    3.05 Too late to sell E/W at 14/1 good course form as he is 2 wins from 4 runs around here. His two wins here he bolted in by 10 and 15 lengths. Should get the trip his wins were 3m 1f around here. Negative is Danny Mullins on board as always but i think this fella can run a big race back at this track.

    5.30 Deep Trouble horse has been dropped 3lbs (138 to 135) for his 7th place finish in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham wasnt given the best ride that day by Leighton Aspell. Noel Fehily takes over today step up in trip shouldnt be a problem and i simply think that 20/1 with firms paying 5 places is a very decent price.

    4.55 Goodwood Magic City is 3/3 around here back down to his last winning mark of 97. Seems to need his first run back ran got that 3 weeks ago at Newmarket. With 8 runners at 4/1 1/4 odds with 365 i think its an e/w bet to nothing.

    5.00 Newmarket Postponed this one has been well backed since prices went up yesterday. Really caught my eye in the craven when never given a hard time and staying on nicely under hands and heels to finish 3rd. Cloudscape the obviously danger but Cumani should have a idea of his level of form having sent out Volume to finish 3rd in the race he won. With the money down i expect the stable think that Postponed is a better animal then Volume.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,657 ✭✭✭brandon_flowers


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Saw that alright Colonel. Took the 20s last night I'll leave it be. Couldn't get the e/w part on though, might just let the win part run

    Still 20/1 with PP, 5 places 1/4 odds. Best value you'll get for e/w.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭NewApproach


    Kingman is the greatest 2/1 shot ever to step foot on a racecourse.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    All roads lead to the Ripon Rowels for Osteopathic Remedy (could win along the way). If he's feasibly handicapped he could be my biggest bet of the year come August.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,641 ✭✭✭andyman


    rossom wrote: »
    All roads lead to the Ripon Rowels for Osteopathic Remedy (could win along the way). If he's feasibly handicapped he could be my biggest bet of the year come August.

    Livias Dream runs at Goodwood, what you think Ross?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    andyman wrote: »
    Livias Dream runs at Goodwood, what you think Ross?

    She needed her reappearance run last year and would probably find a couple too good anyway. Will be delighted if she can win.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 449 ✭✭hawkhead


    There's a bit of money about for Livias now


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,641 ✭✭✭andyman


    I've put a small stake on anyway. Trumpet Major placing has given me a few quid to play with


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 225 ✭✭Morleystreet


    Interesting comment from r Hughes there on C4. Asked how trumpet major would go and wasn't too confident but he then mentioned keep an eye on pethers moon 15:10.


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