What is your opinion of the future of property prices?

2rkehij30qtza5

Prices seem to be increasing, even if the increases each year are small. This increase is even more apparent in Dublin than in other parts of the country.

What are people's thoughts on the future of property prices?

Do you think they will get to a point and level-off or will they continue to creep up year on year.

Do you think price increases will be small or will increase by even greater %ages from here on?

Just curious what people think...

Villa05

Dublin and commuter areas are in a bubble and it will not end well. Prices are out of reach of the majority of people working in Dublin. This Property is marketed as an affordable Dublin city family property for those priced out of the market. The property require considerable refurbishment and has an asking price of €365,000 which is 10 times average salary and nearly 20 times average disposable income (Income - State deductions)

Those that tried to hide the last bubble are saying "You cannot have a bubble without credit" are wrong. While credit is scarce we have central banks around the world printing money. This money is not filtering down to Joe or Jane public so it needs to find a home. This home includes Greek, Irish Debt and Dublin property. Someone is going to get burned, where Ireland is concerned when someone important gets burned. Taxpayer bails them out

It is hard to predict where prices go from here in the short term as the market is rigged, however the fundamentals would point to a considerable fall in prices when the rigged market is found out. These fundamentals include:

Upcoming significant drop in the population of young people in the FTB, renter category.
Emigration amongst our younger people at family creating age
Continuing lower salaries for people entering the workforce in the past 4 years
Ageing population leading to a pension crisis

Zombie de-leveraging banks meaning new mortgage loans will be close to historic lows for some time
40,000 mortgages 2 years or more behind in repayments. The most likely solution in this scenario is repossesion + write off on the remaining debt. This will create a double whammy of increased supply of property on the market + increased losses for the banks meaning less credit for new mortgages.
I know people will say this has not happened to date, but the longer you leave a problem fester the greater the after affects are

on_my_oe

I would like to hope that there will be a dip next year... The government wanted prices up, so they extended the CGT deadline out a year - and the investors, particularly those with cash keep coming. Next year they'll disappear but sellers will probably still hope for the high(er) prices they've been hearing about this year.

murphaph

Villa05 wrote: »

Dublin and commuter areas are in a bubble and it will not end well. Prices are out of reach of the majority of people working in Dublin. This Property is marketed as an affordable Dublin city family property for those priced out of the market. The property require considerable refurbishment and has an asking price of €365,000 which is 10 times average salary and nearly 20 times average disposable income (Income - State deductions)

Not being able to buy the property you live in is certainly not restricted to Dublin or Ireland. My sister in law and her family recently moved out of Munich city centre and bought in a commuter town 25 miles outside because the flat they could afford to rent in Munich would have cost over a million to buy. They wanted to stay in the area but realised long term it would be a poor financial decision and moved out. I imagine it's the same story in many cities. Economic prosperity brings with it such changes and Ireland is much more prosperous now than 30 years ago, despite the national debt we voted upon ourselves.

Villa05

murphaph wrote: »

Not being able to buy the property you live in is certainly not restricted to Dublin or Ireland. My sister in law and her family recently moved out of Munich city centre and bought in a commuter town 25 miles outside because the flat they could afford to rent in Munich would have cost over a million to buy. They wanted to stay in the area but realised long term it would be a poor financial decision and moved out. I imagine it's the same story in many cities. Economic prosperity brings with it such changes and Ireland is much more prosperous now than 30 years ago, despite the national debt we voted upon ourselves.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I suspect, in Germany, Commuter town means commuter town i.e Infrastructure, attitude and service is present to get you to work swiftly and economically.

dashcamdanny

There was a line for the show houses in Sallins recently. The prices of the new builds are increasing in the area. Not so slowly either.

I would love to sell and get my 2006 price back in my pocket. Wont hold my breath though.

topcatcbr

A 4-5% increase per year would have been considered normal way before any tiger or bubble madness.

anything below 2% increase would be a devaluation allowing for inflation.

therefore much of the country has room to grow. Dublin has seen some speculation recently and needs to level off soon to avoid the mistakes of the past

bmwguy

Villa05 wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong but I suspect, in Germany, Commuter town means commuter town i.e Infrastructure, attitude and service is present to get you to work swiftly and economically.

I can access Dublin city centre in 30 minutes by a choice of 2 train stations and 3 dublin bus routes. Its not even in county Dublin. We have commuter towns here too, Ireland isnt all bad!

lima

topcatcbr wrote: »

A 4-5% increase per year would have been considered normal way before any tiger or bubble madness.

anything below 2% increase would be a devaluation allowing for inflation.

therefore much of the country has room to grow. Dublin has seen some speculation recently and needs to level off soon to avoid the mistakes of the past

Isn't the inflation rate currently 0.2% though?

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/annual-inflation-remains-steady-at-0-2-per-cent-1.1698574

kampik

I found this site today, it could be useful to someone who would like to check house prices in their area or any area by comparing price with Google street view house picture.

Google this: propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/pprweb.nsf/PPR?OpenForm

Boards wont let me put up links yet, silly rule for genuine user...

topcatcbr

lima wrote: »

Isn't the inflation rate currently 0.2% though?

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/annual-inflation-remains-steady-at-0-2-per-cent-1.1698574

"domestically-driven services inflation is now running at a much punchier 3 per cent, better reflecting the recovery in the domestic economy through the second half of 2013,”
from your link

This inflation rate is not normal though

The aimed for inflation national rate is usually 2% with house price rising slightly more.

Frank Lee Midere

murphaph wrote: »

Not being able to buy the property you live in is certainly not restricted to Dublin or Ireland. My sister in law and her family recently moved out of Munich city centre and bought in a commuter town 25 miles outside because the flat they could afford to rent in Munich would have cost over a million to buy. They wanted to stay in the area but realised long term it would be a poor financial decision and moved out. I imagine it's the same story in many cities. Economic prosperity brings with it such changes and Ireland is much more prosperous now than 30 years ago, despite the national debt we voted upon ourselves.

We voted that debt because of the last bubble. Dublin and Ireland has just seen the biggest destruction of wealth since WW II. There are still hundreds of thousands in mortgage arrears. The "big cities are expensive" argument won't wash.

Frank Lee Midere

topcatcbr wrote: »

A 4-5% increase per year would have been considered normal way before any tiger or bubble madness.

anything below 2% increase would be a devaluation allowing for inflation.

therefore much of the country has room to grow. Dublin has seen some speculation recently and needs to level off soon to avoid the mistakes of the past

Assets should never increase higher than inflation for long unless previously undervalued.

on_my_oe

Dan O'Brien from the Independent doesn't think there's a bubble...

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/the-property-bubble-wont-burst-because-there-isnt-one-30241835.html

lima

topcatcbr wrote: »

"domestically-driven services inflation is now running at a much punchier 3 per cent, better reflecting the recovery in the domestic economy through the second half of 2013,”
from your link

This inflation rate is not normal though

The aimed for inflation national rate is usually 2% with house price rising slightly more.

I'm not that informed in this area, but why not include oil prices and interest rates into inflation? Would they not have knock-on effects in prices? Everywhere I search it says 0.2% for the inflation rate in Ireland.

David900

lima wrote: »

I'm not that informed in this area, but why not include oil prices and interest rates into inflation? Would they not have knock-on effects in prices? Everywhere I search it says 0.2% for the inflation rate in Ireland.

Overall inflation rate is running at 0.2% but inflation can be broken down into many components.
For example, the euro area inflation rate for April was estimated at 0.7% - below the anticipated level of 0.8%.
If you strip out the more volatile components to this sure as externally driven energy and food prices (presumably because these are based on commodity prices but I'm open to correction on that) core inflation came in at 1%. Hitting economist expectations.

This is why the ECB has been slow to bring in non-standard policies as the core inflation rate, although low, has been stronger than the headline rate.

After prices overshoot to the downside during a market decline, they often rise faster than expected when they begin to rise again. This has occurred in Dublin due to pent up demand and low levels of stock on the market. I think this should begin to ease over the coming year as new stock is brought to the market.

Muahahaha

on_my_oe wrote: »

Dan O'Brien from the Independent doesn't think there's a bubble...

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/the-property-bubble-wont-burst-because-there-isnt-one-30241835.html

I saw that earlier. If Dan O'Brien is saying there isn't a bubble then there definitely is one.

Frank Lee Midere

Muahahaha wrote: »

I saw that earlier. If Dan O'Brien is saying there isn't a bubble then there definitely is one.

I don't know him, he says he warned about the bubble in 2006 though to counter claims that he might be wrong now.

That said there are two mantras these guys come out with.

1) you can't have a bubble without a credit bubble.
2) supply is constrained.

The answer to that are

1) of course you can have a cash bubble. It's just not sustainable.
2) supply is constrained partially by gov interference, partly by the lack of repossession, partly by price. It's easy to see that the supply could double or more in any year. Demand won't.

snubbleste

Frank Lee Midere

David900 wrote: »

Overall inflation rate is running at 0.2% but inflation can be broken down into many components.
For example, the euro area inflation rate for April was estimated at 0.7% - below the anticipated level of 0.8%.
If you strip out the more volatile components to this sure as externally driven energy and food prices (presumably because these are based on commodity prices but I'm open to correction on that) core inflation came in at 1%. Hitting economist expectations.

This is why the ECB has been slow to bring in non-standard policies as the core inflation rate, although low, has been stronger than the headline rate.

After prices overshoot to the downside during a market decline, they often rise faster than expected when they begin to rise again. This has occurred in Dublin due to pent up demand and low levels of stock on the market. I think this should begin to ease over the coming year as new stock is brought to the market.

What happened in Dublin is the prices just about hit the long term average (relative to wages) and then backed up. Given the overhang from the last bust we should have seen an undershoot of larger proportions and for longer.

The Economist metric on average prices is a weak one, firstly because the average is affected by the very bubble you are trying to model ( that is before 2000-2007 the 30 year average much be lower) and because a proper metric would be average house price to post tax income.

quadrifoglio verde

Well without an increase in supply and more mortgages being given out, house prices in Dublin are going to continue going up.
Personally if it was me, id buy somewhere that i could happily see myself living in over the next 20 years and raising a family in.

Don't buy into this crap of getting on the ladder like what was thrown around a few years ago. If house A is 20% more expensive than house B and you buy house B in the hope that you can flip it in a few years to buy house A, house A will have risen as well by a similar amount.

Also buy what you can afford to buy and make sure that you're better off buying and not renting. Theres more to home ownership, than paying the mortgage.

The current price of property, or where its going, whether up or down doesn't bother me if I'm buying as a family home.
If I'm buying as an investment to rent out, then I want a nice yield of at least 10% but good luck finding that.

handlemaster

Dublin house prices will continue to rise for another two/ three years . House building hasn't kicked off yet and will take time to catch up with the demand in the mean time,the curve will be an upward trajectory on prices.

Villa05

on_my_oe wrote: »

Dan O'Brien from the Independent doesn't think there's a bubble...

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/the-property-bubble-wont-burst-because-there-isnt-one-30241835.html

He raises some valid points, but lets break them down
Point 1 Bubbles can't inflate without excessive credit
Dan correctly believe the cause of the bubble was excessive credit in the Irish economy driven by banks borrowing short term from other banks in Europe and loaning it out to joe and jane home buyer in Ireland i.e. a transfer of money in EU Banks to Irish house buyers. This has all stopped so there cant be a bubble?
Quantitative easing or money printing by central banks is doing the same thing via a different route the money is not going to Joe an Jane, but to investors

Point 2 Prices to average incomes are now below the long run average
Issues with this metric as pointed out by Frank Frank Lee Midere altough I would add that we had abnormal property price increases from 96 to 07

The Economist metric on average prices is a weak one, firstly because the average is affected by the very bubble you are trying to model ( that is before 2000-2007 the 30 year average much be lower) and because a proper metric would be average house price to post tax income.

there are also other issues: This metric measures the country as a whole and not Dublin or other hotspots in isolation.
15 houses in Tipperary were sold at the latest allsop auction at €12,000 per house. How many transactions like this have there been and how does this affect the national average. Dublin and most of the rest of the country are different planets.

Point 3 High property price inflation is not necessarily proof of a bubble

An articlefrom the same rag published on the same day

PETER FLANAGAN – PUBLISHED 04 MAY 2014 02:30 AM

A two-bed prime apartment can be had for a little over €400,000 currently, but at very attractive yields.

What do you think?

murphaph

Bubbles can definitely inflate without credit. Come check out the bubble Berlin is experiencing! Foreign (and domestic) cash rich investors are pumping money into Berlin property because the 2% return is still better than the bank and seen as low risk (which it isn't really).

Germany as a whole is experiencing a property bubble which has been driven by investors looking for a perceived safe port in a storm for their money. They see German property as that safe port and thus prices are increasing.

Do people also think that the massive price increases in Chelsea & Kensington are credit driven? Some people just have money and plenty of it. You certainly do likely need credit to inflate property prices in Ballygobackwards but not in Dublin, so long as rents are high enough to provide a half decent return to investors, foreign and domestic.

Villa05

handlemaster wrote: »

Dublin house prices will continue to rise for another two/ three years . House building hasn't kicked off yet and will take time to catch up with the demand in the mean time,the curve will be an upward trajectory on prices.

I wont say you are wrong in your prediction as such is the nature of the way we do things in this country i.e. corruption, bad planning, voting for known (at best dishonest) people, you can see how areas that are overpriced may rise further and areas that are under priced may fall further. In the long run this will come back to kick us in the ass.

Check out the large fall in population in the 15 to 30 age group between 2008 and 2013(-225,000). Add in lower salaries, higher unemployment, emigration amongst this demographic.
Property may rise for 2 to 3 years driven by the few in the 30 to 39 age group who escaped the madness last time out but the next collapse is not far off. In Dublin the current madness is a Selling opportunity and a trap for buyers.

2008 2009 2010 20111 2012 2013
15 - 19 " 295.6 294.3 289.4 281.0 275.7 274.5
20 - 24 " 373.6 354.4 326.3 298.6 277.7 258.8
25 - 29 " 408.3 400.6 381.6 362.9 341.2 320.0

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2013/#.U2daLfkVq_i

Daithi_2014

You can easily tell the people who dont know what they are talking about.
They are the ones telling you that they know where prices are going. They dont and they cant. Unless they are psychic.
So decide, are they knowingly bullsh1tting you, while pretending they have some superior knowledge, as bullsh1tters tend to do ..... or are they psychic.

handlemaster

Daithi_2014 wrote: »

You can easily tell the people who dont know what they are talking about.
They are the ones telling you that they know where prices are going. They dont and they cant. Unless they are psychic.
So decide, are they knowingly bullsh1tting you, while pretending they have some superior knowledge, as bullsh1tters tend to do ..... or are they psychic.

You missed "your opinion" in the thread title.

Daithi_2014

handlemaster wrote: »

You missed "your opinion" in the thread title.

Didnt.

Theboinkmaster

Daithi_2014 wrote: »

You can easily tell the people who dont know what they are talking about.
They are the ones telling you that they know where prices are going. They dont and they cant. Unless they are psychic.
So decide, are they knowingly bullsh1tting you, while pretending they have some superior knowledge, as bullsh1tters tend to do ..... or are they psychic.

I don't see anyone on this thread claiming to know where property prices are going, just sharing opinions :cool:

dizzymiss

What people think their house is worth and what they would actually sell their house for are so so different!

We are first time buyers and looking on the outskirts of Galway. Some of the listing prices are imho and the opinion of most people I know, ridiculous. A lot of houses in areas we are looking have increased their prices in the last number of weeks for no real reason other than the frenzy that is being communicated through media about increading property prices. Depand in galway is high because people are holding out on putting their houses for sale because they think the frenzy will get them a better price. And it probably will because people are stupid and succumb to frenzy.

A house is only worth what someone serious is willing to pay. Asking prices are going up but the amounts people are able to get a mortgage for arent so an entire section of buyers are going to get priced out. It's all an illusion. A dangerous one at that.

makeorbrake

dizzymiss wrote: »

We are first time buyers and looking on the outskirts of Galway. Some of the listing prices are imho and the opinion of most people I know, ridiculous. A lot of houses in areas we are looking have increased their prices in the last number of weeks for no real reason other than the frenzy that is being communicated through media about increading property prices. Demand in galway is high because people are holding out on putting their houses for sale because they think the frenzy will get them a better price. And it probably will because people are stupid and succumb to frenzy. It's all an illusion. A dangerous one at that.

Galway prices have been ridiculous over the past 12 months. Galway is a nice city and place to live but clearly many people are deluded - as it's not this good - not good enough to justify current pricing.

It's hard to believe this is happening only 7 years after the peak of the boom.

dizzymiss

You're right makeorbrake, people are deluded. A house we looked at in early Feb went sale agreed at 166k (it wad worth that, no more. Needed good bit of work),we got a call mid April from EA saying it was back on the market as the bank had changed their mind and think they'd get more for it and the couple who had put in original offer couldnt afford above that. The banks again. Doing what they do best, screwing people over.

We spoke to an auctioneer at the weekend, who actually said a house we were looking was priced too high, about 60k too high but that's what the client wanted it at. Suffice to say it's on the market a while and we were only the second people to look at it. Others never got back to him.

bidiots

makeorbrake wrote: »

Galway prices have been ridiculous over the past 12 months. Galway is a nice city and place to live but clearly many people are deluded - as it's not this good - not good enough to justify current pricing.

It's hard to believe this is happening only 7 years after the peak of the boom.

For the past year there has been a mini bubble in certain area's of Galway, people thought I was doting when I said it but it's becoming pretty clear now. I think I seen a house in Roscam go for over 300k in one of the auctions. For the life of me I can't figure out how it reached the price it did, the scary truth is that people will not learn from past mistakes.

That said, if I could get my hands on a tracker I'd be jumping on the bandwagon

dizzymiss

300k in Roscam, oh please. What is wrong with people? Seriously. It makes me worry that we'll rush into something because of fear of being priced out.

bidiots

dizzymiss wrote: »

300k in Roscam, oh please. What is wrong with people? Seriously. It makes me worry that we'll rush into something because of fear of being priced out.

Actually, 330k!
https://propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-FF370F804782D1B780257C8B004CF958?OpenDocument

2rkehij30qtza5

dizzymiss wrote: »

What people think their house is worth and what they would actually sell their house for are so so different!

We are first time buyers and looking on the outskirts of Galway. Some of the listing prices are imho and the opinion of most people I know, ridiculous. A lot of houses in areas we are looking have increased their prices in the last number of weeks for no real reason other than the frenzy that is being communicated through media about increading property prices. Depand in galway is high because people are holding out on putting their houses for sale because they think the frenzy will get them a better price. And it probably will because people are stupid and succumb to frenzy.

A house is only worth what someone serious is willing to pay. Asking prices are going up but the amounts people are able to get a mortgage for arent so an entire section of buyers are going to get priced out. It's all an illusion. A dangerous one at that.

Hi, I am from Galway city and I don't necessarily agree with your thoughts on people only holding out because they think they will get better prices. A good few of my friends who own houses in areas like Knocknacarra, Roscam, Doughiska, few in Salthill would all LOVE to sell their houses. They would all be houses aimed at the first-time-buyer market. We were out as a group of friends last Saturday night and we all got talking about this topic and i'd honestly say 10 of the group in Galway city would love to sell but their mortgages are all so far off what the property is worth. So as soon as they get to the point that the mortgage equals what the property is worth they will sell it. They won't have made a profit..they will infact have made a massive loss over the years. Most current first time buyers are looking for properties that people in my age group bought as first time buyer properties between 8-10 years ago and those properties are not on the market because people simply cannot afford to sell them as they are in negative equity.

dizzymiss

Kendall Itchy Flagpole wrote: »

Hi, I am from Galway city and I don't necessarily agree with your thoughts on people only holding out because they think they will get better prices. A good few of my friends who own houses in areas like Knocknacarra, Roscam, Doughiska, few in Salthill would all LOVE to sell their houses. They would all be houses aimed at the first-time-buyer market. We were out as a group of friends last Saturday night and we all got talking about this topic and is honestly say 10 of the group in Galway city would love to sell but their mortgages are all so far off what the property is worth. So as soon as they get to the point that the mortgage equals what the property is worth they will sell it. They won't have made a profit..they will infact have made a massive loss over the years. Most current first time buyers are looking for properties that people in my age group bought as first time buyer properties between 8-10 years ago and those properties are not on the market because people simply cannot afford to sell them as they are in negative equity.

You're right. That is to be considered too and something we as a group have discussed. I didnt include it in my post. We always say if we were 7/8 years older we would be caught in the same net.

But there are some people out there that are holding back. And then there are all the vacant properties held by the banks that arent online because they too are trying to control the market. The estate in which the previous property I spoke about (166k) is full of empty houses and when I asked the different EAs about them, I was told the bank hasnt authorised them for sale yet.

gaius c

bidiots wrote: »

For the past year there has been a mini bubble in certain area's of Galway, people thought I was doting when I said it but it's becoming pretty clear now. I think I seen a house in Roscam go for over 300k in one of the auctions. For the life of me I can't figure out how it reached the price it did, the scary truth is that people will not learn from past mistakes.

That said, if I could get my hands on a tracker I'd be jumping on the bandwagon

Not borne out by data from the PPR.

bidiots

What area of Galway does this represent?

jmayo

murphaph wrote: »

Not being able to buy the property you live in is certainly not restricted to Dublin or Ireland. My sister in law and her family recently moved out of Munich city centre and bought in a commuter town 25 miles outside because the flat they could afford to rent in Munich would have cost over a million to buy. They wanted to stay in the area but realised long term it would be a poor financial decision and moved out. I imagine it's the same story in many cities. Economic prosperity brings with it such changes and Ireland is much more prosperous now than 30 years ago, despite the national debt we voted upon ourselves.

Please tell me you are not comparing one of Germany's major cities with Dublin ?

Is Ireland much more prosperous now than 30 years ago ?
I don't think so.
Yeah we have some better roads, and we might have a fair chunk of people with better standard of living all due to the number of high profile multinaitonals now here.

But then take a look at our national debt.
Look at our level of personal indebtedness today compared to 30 years ago.
There are thousands of people stuck in this limbo for the rest of their lives.

And while you are at it, how many functioning non taxpayer drip fed banks have we today in comparison to 30 years ago.

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

What happened in Dublin is the prices just about hit the long term average (relative to wages) and then backed up. Given the overhang from the last bust we should have seen an undershoot of larger proportions and for longer.

The Economist metric on average prices is a weak one, firstly because the average is affected by the very bubble you are trying to model ( that is before 2000-2007 the 30 year average much be lower) and because a proper metric would be average house price to post tax income.

I firmly believe that property prices did not reach the bottom that normally would follow such a large bubble as ours.
Prices started increasing mid 90s, granted they started from a low base.
But prices did not go back to those levels in most cases.
They might have in the ass end of nowhere, but property was never a runner there in the first place and only occurred due to our bubble.

Supply was constricted and all the repossessions that should have occurred were prevented and thus we have had a distortion of the market.
To paraphrase what some others have said here, you can delay the inevitable for so long.

I also wonder how things are going to pan out in the UK where there is now also a bubble in London.

Villa05

bmwguy wrote: »

I can access Dublin city centre in 30 minutes by a choice of 2 train stations and 3 dublin bus routes. Its not even in county Dublin. We have commuter towns here too, Ireland isnt all bad!

As a daily user of public transport, reliability is a major issue. The private operators are much better, but are prevented from providing a more comprehensive service
Ireland is a great country, one of the most beautiful in the world unfortunately her rulers, not so great. Her people are amongst the most friendly and trusting. Ireland's rulers and powerful try to take advantage of that

jmayo

Villa05 wrote: »

As a daily user of public transport, reliability is a major issue. The private operators are much better, but are prevented from providing a more comprehensive service
Ireland is a great country, one of the most beautiful in the world unfortunately her rulers, not so great. Her people are amongst the most friendly and trusting. Ireland's rulers and powerful try to take advantage of that

I wouldn't have said trusting and even at this stage friendly, well certainly not late at night in most of our towns and cities at least. The uncurrent of violence and threatening behaviour all due to alcohol is sad to see.

We are more apathetic than anything.
If you want a good example, I give you the fact that bertie got voted back into power in 2007, even though we already knew he was a chancer, he had very dodgy finances, how much money he and his arrogant colleagues had wasted and how cr** things like our health service was after a litany of wastage, misdiagnosis and avoidable deaths.

Yet people were happy out because they were doing ok.
I could drag out multiple posts around here who couldn't care about his affaires or the state of the health service as example, as he had presided over the good times.
Who cared if a few old people had to suffer trolleys or maltreatement in a tax haven nursing home.

We get the politicans we deserve and it isn't some grand conspiracy visited upon us by some malevolent very smart political class.

The political class and the connected ones get away with it, not because we are trusting, but because often half of us couldn't give a shy*e because it doesn't affect us directly.

As evidenced by the whole church abuse saga too many people in this country turn a blind eye and let things slide, all for an easy life.

NZ_2014

Can`t believe this is happening again. Absolute madness and bedlam. Feic it, I`m going to live in a caravan in my parents garden.

Ray Palmer

jmayo wrote: »

Please tell me you are not comparing one of Germany's major cities with Dublin ?

Is Ireland much more prosperous now than 30 years ago ?
I don't think so.
Yeah we have some better roads, and we might have a fair chunk of people with better standard of living all due to the number of high profile multinaitonals now here.

.

I remember the 80s and yes we are much better off. The vast majority are better off. You think unemployment is bad now it was worse then and effected many more people of different age groups.

I don't know what figures you are using for debit but have you index linked them?

What was always going to happen as Ireland became more international the country would adjust to be more like other countries. That would include lowering our home ownership rate to be closer to that of other countries.

Property prices could easily stay high stopping people from owning forever. Expecting them to return to rates everybody can buy could be a false assumption as it is not the norm internationally.

Personal debit is also the norm in many western countries so for it to increase is not something unique to Ireland that has to disappear but could be the new reality.

People are complaining that the government's failure to reposes is the cause but that isn't new it is old law. You can't have house prices forced to be low and no repossessions in a vacuum. There are inter-dependencies. Just like people claimed rent allowance was keeping rent up in Dublin. It wasn't and has been proven by reality. I suspect most of the people claiming house prices have to drop believed rent allowance was keeping rent high.

GavMan

A think at this point in time, I'd settle for adequate stock. Nevermind prices dropping..

Villa05

Agree on the 80's with regard to now, more people suffered. This time round the suffering is targeted and more concentrated at our younger citizens. House prices reflect our older citizens more comfortable position, eventually it will have to reflect our childrens lower income as they grow older

If we were playing catch-up on debt levels with the rest of the western world, we have achieved with quiet a bit of change Linky

Home-ownership rates are not that different to the rest of the western world

gaius c

bidiots wrote: »

What area of Galway does this represent?

All of it.

bidiots

gaius c wrote: »

All of it.

Aye.... and as I said, 'certain areas', which deems that graph irrelevant.

thestar

Villa05 wrote: »

Dublin and commuter areas are in a bubble and it will not end well. Prices are out of reach of the majority of people working in Dublin. This Property is marketed as an affordable Dublin city family property for those priced out of the market. The property require considerable refurbishment and has an asking price of €365,000 which is 10 times average salary and nearly 20 times average disposable income (Income - State deductions)

Those that tried to hide the last bubble are saying "You cannot have a bubble without credit" are wrong. While credit is scarce we have central banks around the world printing money. This money is not filtering down to Joe or Jane public so it needs to find a home. This home includes Greek, Irish Debt and Dublin property. Someone is going to get burned, where Ireland is concerned when someone important gets burned. Taxpayer bails them out

It is hard to predict where prices go from here in the short term as the market is rigged, however the fundamentals would point to a considerable fall in prices when the rigged market is found out. These fundamentals include:

Upcoming significant drop in the population of young people in the FTB, renter category.
Emigration amongst our younger people at family creating age
Continuing lower salaries for people entering the workforce in the past 4 years
Ageing population leading to a pension crisis

Zombie de-leveraging banks meaning new mortgage loans will be close to historic lows for some time
40,000 mortgages 2 years or more behind in repayments. The most likely solution in this scenario is repossesion + write off on the remaining debt. This will create a double whammy of increased supply of property on the market + increased losses for the banks meaning less credit for new mortgages.
I know people will say this has not happened to date, but the longer you leave a problem fester the greater the after affects are

excellent post but would only disagree with the fact that if families were going to go, they would be well gone at this stage in my opinion

Monife

bmwguy wrote: »

I can access Dublin city centre in 30 minutes by a choice of 2 train stations and 3 dublin bus routes. Its not even in county Dublin. We have commuter towns here too, Ireland isnt all bad!

I live in Dublin about 9km from work and it takes me an hour on the bus! No access to DART. And I can't walk due to rheumatoid arthritis.

Villa05

thestar wrote: »

excellent post but would only disagree with the fact that if families were going to go, they would be well gone at this stage in my opinion

Still are families leaving in much smaller numbers. My original point referred to young couples with no children and single people. They are, likely to lay down roots abroad and not return