Punchestown Day 1

longshotvalue

4:20

The Liquidator probably came up against a superstar in Vautour and the fact that he tried to go with him for too long took its toll and he weakened in the end. I fancy this easier 2 miles on good ground will probably suit him better and he could well outrun his big looking price of 20/1 here. There may not be much between him and the 2nd and 3rd fav here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Boyles/Paddy

4:55

The Game Changer struck me straight away as the value here. He has a decent c&d win at the end of last year that has worked out well, and looked to be running well last time at Aintree until hampered 2 out. His mark of 130 may have some leeway and I expected him to be shorted here
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1 Point EW 16/1 Bet365/Coral

5:30

Somersby should be a fairly solid favourite here on form and I think he is being underestimated here again as he was at Cheltenham. Module was catching him at the end of the Champion but this is less of a staying race and really he should have too much class. He jumped and ran about as good as he ever did in that race and a repeat would be good enough to win here.

2 Points win 5/1 Various.

shy-tall-knight

Like the look of Sea Beat down the bottom in the 16:55. Had him down as a lively one for the Fred Winter but didn't get in. Could yet be a blessing in disguise. Jumps well, travel's well and looks progressive. Really liked the way he knuckled down to beat Le V'ent Dantan the last day. Only things is the bookies seem to share the above reasoning and he looks a bit short at 8/1 for just his fourth start in a hot 2 mile handicap. Get's plenty of weight though being just a 4 year old and novices have won this in the past.

jimjamcos

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Like the look of Sea Beat down the bottom in the 16:55. Had him down as a lively one for the Fred Winter but didn't get in. Could yet be a blessing in disguise. Jumps well, travel's well and looks progressive. Really liked the way he knuckled down to beat Le V'ent Dantan the last day. Only things is the bookies seem to share the above reasoning and he looks a bit short at 8/1 for just his fourth start in a hot 2 mile handicap. Get's plenty of weight though being just a 4 year old and novices have won this in the past.

Been pricewised too.

UrbanSea

Stocktons wing caught the eye last time. Backed it at 14s but you are always taking a chance backing one of JP's

Francie Barrett

Enda Bolger loves to win hunter chases at Punchestown and all four of his horses out tomorrow are in the opening hunter chase. He did the same thing last year for this very race and had the winner (Zest For Life, second favourite). Near Perfection was the favourite that day (also owned by Bolger), was punted off the boards and probably would have won but it fell.

This year though it's a bit of a head scratcher as Bolger has three 5 year olds and a 6 year old out, none of whom have any decent form to speak of. Early market is likely to be the best indication and it suggests that Be Positive is the one that's supposed to win tomorrow.

sonnky

3.40:
Shocking race to kick off the meeting. No bet for me but Lord Hawkfield, Be Positive and Linnel look the main contenders. Lord Hawkfield was 2nd in this last year and should handle the good ground(He won a point on Good-to-Firm), it looks as though this has been the target since then and he should have an e/w shout. Be Positive hasn't much form in the book but is from the Enda Bolger stable who do very well in these events, he wears a first time hood and will surely be in the first three under Nina Carberry. Linnel is the class act rated 116 and if showing his best form he will be very hard to beat. Under last years winning rider he should go well for the Arthur Moore team and if handling the good ground, he should get a first victory under rules.
No Bet

4.20:
This race is all about Faugheen and if he jumps around okay he should win this to further enhance his huge reputation. It's interesting to see him drop down to the minimum distance for this and I think it will help him settle better and it may even improve his jumping going faster. Each way bet would have to be The Liquidator who won the Champion Bumper here last year and is being sent over from England for this. He was well fancied for the supreme before his Sandown run and then ran at Cheltenham despite being a doubt in the weeks leading up to it. He looks a nice bet w/o Faugheen at 6/1.
Faugheen Win 8/11
The Liquidator W/O Faugheen 6/1


4.55
The Game Changer looks a great e/w bet here at 10/1. He ran well for a long way at Aintree last time in a Grade 2, before he was hampered and lost his place before 2 out. Before that he was second at Naas giving 3lbs to a 130 rated rival. On his seasonal re-appearance he beat Daneking who won a handicap at Fairyhouse off 128 last Sunday, Katie T(A grade 3 winner now) and 2 more winners finished behind. 2 runs later he won a good novice hurdle here at Punchestown, beating Gilgamboa who won the Boylesports Hurdle off 128 and ran well in the Supreme Novices before almost unseating AP McCoy at the 3rd last. So off just 130, carrying 11 stone and with Davy Russell who is 2 from 3 on board, he should run a very big race in a first time hood.
The Game Changer e/w 10/1

5.30
Somersby and Hidden Cyclone look the ones to concentrate on. I'm a big fan of Hidden Cyclone and would love to see him win it but I'll let the head rule the heart and say Somersby will triumph. He has been an excellent servant throughout the years to connections and he has been in great form this season. He seems a better horse right handed too with all bar one of his wins coming going that way round. He likes the good ground and should have the beating of these. I'll take Hidden Cyclone in the betting without Somersby Market, He's been a bit of a bridesmaid this season finishing second in 3 grade ones, and he put up a tremendous performance last time just being caught late on by Dynaste in the Ryanair. He was very unlucky at Leopardstown at Christmas when he was checked before running on again and he should go well again. Twinlight, Baily Green ad Module can fight it out for third place.
Somersby win 9/2
Hidden Cyclone W/O Somersby 3/1

6.05
Wide open event where the Nicky Henderson trained newcomer Native Display looks the most likely winner with Patrick Mullins an interesting booking for the English Raider. At 33/1 however Sir Pedro might be worth an e/w bet. He was sixth on his debut and with that run under his belt, this half brother to champion bumper winner Total Enjoyment is worth a few quid e/w.

Sir Pedro e/w 33/1

del roy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Stocktons wing caught the eye last time. Backed it at 14s but you are always taking a chance backing one of JP's

urban
the guy who gave us the bumper winners on the beat the thread says stocktons
really fancied for this, they did n't want any rain though.

ste2010

I personally think its Dalisiri day tomorrow. Fantastic price at 25-1 or 20-1 with Paddy Power money back if 2nd or 3rd.
Others I will go with are
Module in the champion chase
Morning Assembly in the 3m novice
and the guessing game... its interesting the fact mullins is riding Native Display. Whats more interesting for me is that Katie Walshe may well have got the ride on Mullins horse. So that rules that one out for me. The fact that she has gone with Noel Meades second string suggests there is probably strength in his first string with Nina Carberry on board. Pure guess work but Snow Falcon gets the nod!

ste2010

UrbanSea wrote: »

Stocktons wing caught the eye last time. Backed it at 14s but you are always taking a chance backing one of JP's

I think your selling out on dalisiri day...

walrusgumble

If Hidden Cyclone does not get, it, though I hope he does, I have a shneaky feeling that Geraghty and Module will pip McCoy and Somerby. Interesting that neither horse has their original jockeys. Geraghty is on fire. Wonder if 16f is a bit sharp for Cyclone.? At least he is use to the weights, unlike Sombery

Heart ruling head, but I wonder is this race a race too many for Carlingford Lough? (the novice chase) again, with Geraghtys magic, I wonder can Don Cossack be in contention (worried about trip)

Moon Dice

I have to go for Ballycasey again today. Was so impressive last time out until the fall

kfallon

Christ the 'Champion' Chase is horrific! Would have loved to see Champagne Fever run in this to add a bit of spice! We are being spoiled with evening racing in Ireland all this week, will pass the time til Newmarket on Saturday!

walrusgumble

kfallon wrote: »

Christ the 'Champion' Chase is horrific! Would have loved to see Champagne Fever run in this to add a bit of spice! We are being spoiled with evening racing in Ireland all this week, will pass the time til Newmarket on Saturday!

In what way horrific? Bad horses or just really hard to pick ?

All of these horses have some rivialry between them eg Carlingford Lough - Morning Assembly-Don Cossack and Ballycasey, all meet each other before and bet each other, all had falls recently (bar MA) looks competitive, no?

Yes, jolly well looking forward to Newmarket - you do you reckon will do the 2000 guineas?

kfallon

walrusgumble wrote: »

In what way horrific? Bad horses or just really hard to pick ?

All of these horses have some rivialry between them eg Carlingford Lough - Morning Assembly-Don Cossack and Ballycasey, all meet each other before and bet each other, all had falls recently (bar MA) looks competitive, no?

The Champion Chase is not the Novice Race you are referring to above. The Champion is the race with Hidden Cyclone, Module, Sizing Europe et al. Shows the lack of depth in the 2m division when you take out Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy! Terrible race!

Johner

I'm really looking forward to the Champion Chase, it might not be the strongest grade 1 ever but it's very competitive and should be a good spectacle.

Only bet of the day for me is Ballycasey.

Slattsy

Ballycasey too - have to keep the faith.

walrusgumble

kfallon wrote: »

The Champion Chase is not the Novice Race you are referring to above. The Champion is the race with Hidden Cyclone, Module, Sizing Europe et al. Shows the lack of depth in the 2m division when you take out Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy! Terrible race!

Ah, fair point so

superfurry1

What are peoples thoughts on Mozoltov first time at distance could be a decent price tricky race though.

triggerharvey

morning assembly is rock solid and loves the place 4 out of 5

kfallon

Doesn't Morning Assembly have a great record at Punchestown?

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

Ballycasey too - have to keep the faith.

You know he's running over 3m today, right?

His form for the distance inc p2p reads 53234. For a clearly talented horse, that's not good enough. Non stayer.

UrbanSea

Yeah definitely opposable over this trip. Stocktons Wing very strong last half hour

cson

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yeah definitely opposable over this trip. Stocktons Wing very strong last half hour

JP has the word out so.

Surprised Carlingford Lough is still being flogged. Near enough a full year on the go at this stage.

NaiveMelodies

Having watched the Supreme again there and his previous run vs Vautour, I'm very very confident that Western Boy has the beating of the rest today and may give Faugheen something to think about.

shy-tall-knight

cson wrote: »

JP has the word out so.

Surprised Carlingford Lough is still being flogged. Near enough a full year on the go at this stage.

Been put up by Gary O Brien, he's also put up Western Boy Baily Green.

bumper234

Dalasari e/w 4:55 my only bet today

mdwexford

Ballycasey is a total non stayer.

Shaped like the best horse in the RSA for a long time and then emptied.

I'll be interested in him over 2m4f next season.

Johner

Djakadam is a non runner, Ruby on Ballycasey I presume.

luketitz

Anyone opposing Faugheen at all?

I fancy Very Much So in the Land Rover bumper (6.05) tonight (fairly reliable source has him tipped for greatness!)

Also a few small punts on Cool Macivity, Baily Green and Don Cossack, although Morning Assembly will take some beating on this track.

walrusgumble

kfallon wrote: »

Doesn't Morning Assembly have a great record at Punchestown?

Those races, Ruby rode him. Now has other regular, Davy Russell

kfallon

luketitz wrote: »

I fancy Very Much So in the Land Rover bumper (6.05) tonight (fairly reliable source has him tipped for greatness!)

Heard quite the opposite which would explain why Patrick doesn't ride him!

Gringo180

Real Steel 25/1 in the novice hurdle surely the bookies have got that wrong, wasnt too far off Vasuer de Lido last time out and gave him 6lbs if I remember correctly.

walrusgumble

cson wrote: »

JP has the word out so.

Surprised Carlingford Lough is still being flogged. Near enough a full year on the go at this stage.

McCoy and the trainer have done a fantastic job with Carlinford Lough. Ya, a whole year or so, often on big weight, little or no rest. If he gets as much as top 3 , that is some achievement on the basis on being on the go for so long

At Leopy, I think he was fierce unlucky to fall, at Cheltenham, his jumping was disappointing, but, hopefully he can make amends here.

It has been a huge step in progress this term. This time last year, CL pulled up in Punchestown in at a lesser distance and lighter weight. Don't know how good is really is on ground better than heavy or soft.

I am simply sticking to CL on the basis of doing so since Galway Plate.

Fear Don Cossack, even though one wonders could he make 3 miles, he was 10 l behind in Aintree on flatter surface. If anyone can do the business, its Geraghty .

Ballycasey, doubt he will fall again, Ruby and Townend will have him up the front as usual. He might have a better shot if he was more rested.

Motivator

walrusgumble wrote: »

Ballycasey, doubt he will fall again, Ruby and Townend will have him up the front as usual. He might have a better shot if he was more rested.

Jesus the others have no chance if the 2 of them are riding him

byronbay2

Motivator wrote: »

Jesus the others have no chance if the 2 of them are riding him

I wouldn't be so sure - the horse is giving around 140lb to the rest of the field. That's quite a concession!

Dickerty

sonnky wrote: »

3.40:
Shocking race to kick off the meeting. No bet for me but Lord Hawkfield, Be Positive and Linnel look the main contenders. Lord Hawkfield was 2nd in this last year and should handle the good ground(He won a point on Good-to-Firm), it looks as though this has been the target since then and he should have an e/w shout. Be Positive hasn't much form in the book but is from the Enda Bolger stable who do very well in these events, he wears a first time hood and will surely be in the first three under Nina Carberry. Linnel is the class act rated 116 and if showing his best form he will be very hard to beat. Under last years winning rider he should go well for the Arthur Moore team and if handling the good ground, he should get a first victory under rules.
No Bet

When in doubt, you should just Be Positive. :cool:

sdoc13

2 bets for me today

Dalisari 40s corals 1 pt ew
Somersby 2 pts win

UrbanSea

Chanced Wicklow Brave each way. Think he ran too bad to be true and he travelled very well in the supreme. Worth a chance at 20s on better ground.

UrbanSea

Chance gone at the start :pac:

UrbanSea

"Faugheen and Ruby Walsh win by half the track"

Johner

Holy fuck.

TakeTheVeil

Mighty impressive

Johner

That is what you call a machine.

Dickerty

Faugheen wins it - I'm 2 for 2!

Did The Liquidator place?

kfallon

Faugheen The Machine

BQQ

What a monster :eek:

mailburner

8s from 16s for next years ch
as low as 5s in a place


can't wait to see this one again
sky is the limit

mailburner

Dickerty wrote: »

Faugheen wins it - I'm 2 for 2!

Did The Liquidator place?

no



1st 1 Faugheen (IRE) 1/2 f
2nd 6 Valseur Lido (FR) 9/1
3rd 4 Sgt Reckless 8/1

kiers47

Ridiculously impressive.

An absolute monster gamble here in lingfield. Fav was 12s last night gone off 10/11.

jimjamcos

Machine. Think he's better than Vautour myself.

Slattsy

SRFC called that from early doors.