Wed 2nd.

sting60

I watched a horse last year who looked so backward and looked liked he needed time and was never a 2yr old he runs tomorrow at Leopardstown called Fiscal Focus he also looked like a horse on breeding that might want a trip so the mile tomorrow is a worry.

Francie Barrett

I was at DownRoyal a few weeks ago and met up with a few lads who I used to knock around with. One of the lads who had told me that See Double You was set to win a race (I tipped it on here) told me of a horse running that day was an absolute cert. The horse was called Black Spot On and it was heavily punted and as low as 6/4 before the off. I got on, and it paid for a few pints, but you're never going to make serious money at that price. The interesting bit was that I was told that once it broke its duck over hurdles, then it would be switched over to the flat for awhile. Needless to say, its time has come tomorrow in the last at Leopardstown. Horse is 3lbs out of the handicap, but is rated 47 over the flat (as opposed to 114 over hurdles). I haven't spoken to my chum, but early betting should act as a guide for tomorrow. If there's early money for it, then get on.

3ndahalfof6

sting60 wrote: »

I watched a horse last year who looked so backward and looked liked he needed time and was never a 2yr old he runs tomorrow at Leopardstown called Fiscal Focus he also looked like a horse on breeding that might want a trip so the mile tomorrow is a worry.

?

Francie Barrett

Ok lads, which one of you hoovered up all the chump change on betfair?

sting60

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I was at DownRoyal a few weeks ago and met up with a few lads who I used to knock around with. One of the lads who had told me that See Double You was set to win a race (I tipped it on here) told me of a horse running that day was an absolute cert. The horse was called Black Spot On and it was heavily punted and as low as 6/4 before the off. I got on, and it paid for a few pints, but you're never going to make serious money at that price. The interesting bit was that I was told that once it broke its duck over hurdles, then it would be switched over to the flat for awhile. Needless to say, its time has come tomorrow in the last at Leopardstown. Horse is 3lbs out of the handicap, but is rated 47 over the flat (as opposed to 114 over hurdles). I haven't spoken to my chum, but early betting should act as a guide for tomorrow. If there's early money for it, then get on.

Francie will have a look at the race but 47,wow.

Francie Barrett

For fecks sake lads. Ten minutes after I posted all the double digit prices were hoovered up. Could you not have held on a bit, now this damn thing is going to open at 2/1 if we're lucky.

Colonel Sanders

Always the way Francie

Prices are ruined for pennies on Betfair the night before all the time. People who do it should be strung up by the balls

BorneTobyWilde

Can't see past Zemario, begins with Z!
And has finished ahead of Guitar Pete 3 races back

BumperD

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Ok lads, which one of you hoovered up all the chump change on betfair?

I don't do betfair but someone is obviously watching the site and backing to lay for buttons. If I were you, I wouldn't bother my hole putting them up until the day when the markets are up. There's zero benefit from what I can see, other than the odd retard backing for jelly beans on betfair.

hucklebuck

Francie Barrett wrote: »

For fecks sake lads. Ten minutes after I posted all the double digit prices were hoovered up. Could you not have held on a bit, now this damn thing is going to open at 2/1 if we're lucky.

Thats ****ing shocking, they have ruined the price you might have got from the bookies too.

boysinblack

7/2 opening with bet365

anuprising

hucklebuck wrote: »

Thats ****ing shocking, they have ruined the price you might have got from the bookies too.

if the bookmakers are influenced by someone having €8 on at 12,s ,then they need to find a new business or people on here need to understand or learn how books work - €50 matched at the time of the screenshot won't influence s book

was paper fav in a number of racing papers long before the 'tip' was posted on this site

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/Leopardstown_Wed_2nd_Apr_2014_6_40.html

http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=809944&meetingid=65318&date=2014-04-02&ref=fixtures&refsite=&nav=racecards

Colonel Sanders

anuprising wrote: »

if the bookmakers are influenced by someone having €8 on at 12,s ,then they need to find a new business or people on here need to understand or learn how books work - €50 matched at the time of the screenshot won't influence s book

Bookmakers do use the exchanges as an "early warning" system (maybe not in this case)

You often see a horse forecast a huge price backed for buttons on Betfair the night before and bookmakers open it a lot shorter as a result

In a lot of cases bookmakers simply close punters accounts as soon as they show a small bit of cop on rather than employ compilers who actually have a clue in the first place

NaiveMelodies

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Bookmakers do use the exchanges as an "early warning" system (maybe not in this case)

If this is the case, surely it can be exploited fairly handily to push the price out a tad for the one you actually want to back?

I thought Francie was being tongue in cheek when having a pop???
Please say he was.

Colonel Sanders

only1stevo wrote: »

If this is the case, surely it can be exploited fairly handily to push the price out a tad for the one you actually want to back?

Stuart Williams landed a huge gamble in 2004 with a horse called Exponential, 100/1 into 8/1

Some people were suggesting connections were pushing the price out in an illiquid market the night before, no idea if its true however

anuprising

only1stevo wrote: »

I thought Francie was being tongue in cheek when having a pop???
Please say he was.

I posted my response as that was the second time he suggested (or how I took it up ) that he influenced a market . first one was €200 on big shu cut to 25/1 then this . maybe I'm reading it wrong but looked like someone with little understanding of markets , or self promotion .

Colonel Sanders

anuprising wrote: »

I posted my response as that was the second time he suggested (or how I took it up ) that he influenced a market . first one was €200 on big shu cut to 25/1 then this . maybe I'm reading it wrong but looked like someone with little understanding of markets , or self promotion .

there's no self promotion in claiming bookmakers cut prices after relatively small bets. Some (*cough Boyles cough*) do it all the time. Back anything in an office to win a monkey or more, they'll ring in the bet and the price will vanish.

In any case the €200 bet was placed for someone else

NaiveMelodies

anuprising wrote: »

I posted my response as that was the second time he suggested (or how I took it up ) that he influenced a market . first one was €200 on big shu cut to 25/1 then this . maybe I'm reading it wrong but looked like someone with little understanding of markets , or self promotion .

To be honest I'd have it as neither... I think 'acting the fcuking idiot' would be what I'd put it down as.. if indeed he wasn't being tongue in cheek.

Francie Barrett

only1stevo wrote: »

If this is the case, surely it can be exploited fairly handily to push the price out a tad for the one you actually want to back?

I thought Francie was being tongue in cheek when having a pop???
Please say he was.

Ì am not being tongue in cheek. This kind of thing happens all the time. When I have a bit of a tip, I am like a hawk watching the exchanges and oddschecker for the early bookies prices. For evening Irish handicaps, the books will always offer prices that morning at about 7-9am. If Bet365 aren't the first to offering prices, then it's Powers/Boils. If you watch the starting prices that they put up, you will notice they are NEVER higher than what's on the exchanges. It's blatantly clear that bookies use the exchanges as their guides, even if there's only been a few hundred quid matched.

NaiveMelodies

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Ì am not being tongue in cheek. This kind of thing happens all the time. When I have a bit of a tip, I am like a hawk watching the exchanges and oddschecker for the early bookies prices. For evening Irish handicaps, the books will always offer prices that morning at about 7-9am. If Bet365 aren't the first to offering prices, then it's Powers/Boils. If you watch the starting prices that they put up, you will notice they are NEVER higher than what's on the exchanges. It's blatantly clear that bookies use the exchanges as their guides, even if there's only been a few hundred quid matched.

I get all of the above but the fact your A) thinking it's definitely people on this forum and b) actually giving out and moaning to people for backing a horse after tipping it up is absolutely hilarious.

irish_major

only1stevo wrote: »

If this is the case, surely it can be exploited fairly handily to push the price out a tad for the one you actually want to back?

I thought Francie was being tongue in cheek when having a pop???
Please say he was.

If you dont know by now that the bookies use betfair prices to price there market you are very very niave.
The danger with trying to get a big price is you may have to have a big outlay. Say you lay 50 at 20/1. It could be snatched up in minutes and then you need to go again.

Its something ive taught about alot, I think if I got huge word Id wait til just before the market opens and for tiny money lay it upto say 20/1. When the market opens withdraw your lay and lump on in the bookies. Risky but the potential rewards are huge

Francie Barrett

anuprising wrote: »

I posted my response as that was the second time he suggested (or how I took it up ) that he influenced a market . first one was €200 on big shu cut to 25/1 then this . maybe I'm reading it wrong but looked like someone with little understanding of markets , or self promotion .

Self promotion, what are you talking about? I have nothing to promote, I am an anonymous person on the internet who has been punting for over 25 years now. These days, my bets are small, but at times, I do get asked to put money on for friends. You walk into any bookies with any decent three figure sum and you try to put it on a horse, alarms bells go off, head office is called - the bookie is running scared.

You're some man to talk about not understanding a market. You do realise when bookies take money, they cut prices. When bookies see any remotely substantial money on anything, they get very fearful and cut prices heavily. I thought this kind of thing was self-evident?

Francie Barrett

only1stevo wrote: »

I get all of the above but the fact your A) thinking it's definitely people on this forum and b) actually giving out and moaning to people for backing a horse after tipping it up is absolutely hilarious.

Of course it does.

Look at all that nonsense with the Rakebackmypoker horses a few weeks ago. Some idle chat on Twitter the night before got seized upon and prices tumbled and betting got suspended. In that instance, there wasn't even a tip for those horses. The tip I gave was at 17 when I posted, within 20 minutes, all the small money was hoovered up and the horse was into 3. That is why I posted the picture, it was no accident.

rossom

anuprising wrote: »

if the bookmakers are influenced by someone having €8 on at 12,s ,then they need to find a new business or people on here need to understand or learn how books work - €50 matched at the time of the screenshot won't influence s book

was paper fav in a number of racing papers long before the 'tip' was posted on this site

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/Leopardstown_Wed_2nd_Apr_2014_6_40.html

http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=809944&meetingid=65318&date=2014-04-02&ref=fixtures&refsite=&nav=racecards

If I was a bookie and I saw that a punter was willing to back a horse at a certain price the night before on Betfair then I wouldn't open it any bigger than that. If someone is willing to back it at a lower price then what they planned to open the horse then logic dictates that others will also be willing to back it at that price.

Don't forget they can always lengthen the horse's price if no money comes for it on the day. Bookies mostly proceed with caution using Betfair as a guide and you can hardly blame them.

I absolutely despise the ****ing idiots who ruin the prices by backing something at a short price on Betfair for buttons.

NaiveMelodies

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Of course it does.

Look at all that nonsense with the Rakebackmypoker horses a few weeks ago. Some idle chat on Twitter the night before got seized upon and prices tumbled and betting got suspended. In that instance, there wasn't even a tip for those horses. The tip I gave was at 17 when I posted, within 20 minutes, all the small money was hoovered up and the horse was into 3. That is why I posted the picture, it was no accident.

Jesus man.
So say it was definitely people on boards who saw the tip and backed it on Betfair.
For someone who's constantly checking out the prices and trends why would you put up the 'tip' before a proper market had formed?
Surely with your knowledge this is an extremely idiotic thing to do?
And then to have the gaul to give out after the fact....

bumper234

Have just been told by a colleague who knows the owner that stretaw in the 5-10 @ Leopardstown will win tonight (in to 4/1 from 10s)

Johner

Backed Makadamia in the first at Wincanton. The big step up in trip should suit down to the ground, took some 5/1.

Colonel Sanders

rossom wrote: »

I absolutely despise the ****ing idiots who ruin the prices by backing something at a short price on Betfair for buttons.

Testify!

BorneTobyWilde

Man Of Erin 25-1 ew
I like it's chances on this ground, 4 to place ?

Johner

Absolutely shocking ride by O'Brien.

Dr. Bre

Johner wrote: »

Absolutely shocking ride by O'Brien.

awful stuff

UrbanSea

Jesus 1/3 to 4/5. Some money to be made on O'Briens this time of year

The Mig

sting60 wrote: »

I watched a horse last year who looked so backward and looked liked he needed time and was never a 2yr old he runs tomorrow at Leopardstown called Fiscal Focus he also looked like a horse on breeding that might want a trip so the mile tomorrow is a worry.

Hope you were on Sting

Johner

UrbanSea wrote: »

Jesus 1/3 to 4/5. Some money to be made on O'Briens this time of year

It was because of O'Briens interview before, the horse would have won though if Joey didn't try go for a gap that wasn't there. But yep definitely always worth taking on O'Briens short ones this time of the year.

sting60

The Mig wrote: »

Hope you were on Sting

10/1 for small money.

sting60

UrbanSea wrote: »

Jesus 1/3 to 4/5. Some money to be made on O'Briens this time of year

1/5 or 2/9 best this morning.

Whosthis

I've had a couple of quid each way on Trojan Sun in the next at Wincanton

Johner

Hat-rick of shorties beaten for O'Brien.

mr.jingle

A horse like Kingbarns running on a Wednesday afternoon at a student meeting, what has happened to what was thought to be O'Briens 'Best ive ever had'

Anyone backing O'Briens horse before the Guineas meeting I think are mad, under priced and most likely in need of a run along with some decent ground.

Joke of a meeting at Leopardstown anyway apparently loads are legless already and falling everywhere.

Johner

mr.jingle wrote: »

Joke of a meeting at Leopardstown anyway apparently loads are legless already and falling everywhere.

Chappers is going to clean up.

Johner

Looks like Peter Casey already did!

mr.jingle

The ATR cameraman is having a great time by the looks of it, must have followed the one in the red dress wearing stilts for a full minute!

Johner

Jollyallen was very impressive in that bumper at Wincanton, lovely fine big horse!

mr.jingle

Joseph O Brien comes across very well once again in that interview, could have easily told Chapman to f off. The lad is in a lose/lose situation at times

BorneTobyWilde

Black Spot On is OFF !

Will be breathing heavy before race if they don't catch him quick.Not a bonus on this ground

UrbanSea

One of the lads was heading to Leop told him to back Ibsen each way he was around 14s at the time. Well backed

BorneTobyWilde

Ibsen led inch before line, then head went back.

Johner

When they flashed past I thought Ibsen won a short head.

Well done Francie and unlucky Urban.

BorneTobyWilde

Amber Romance saved my day.
What was looking like a disaster has turned into a profit

sdoc13

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I was at DownRoyal a few weeks ago and met up with a few lads who I used to knock around with. One of the lads who had told me that See Double You was set to win a race (I tipped it on here) told me of a horse running that day was an absolute cert. The horse was called Black Spot On and it was heavily punted and as low as 6/4 before the off. I got on, and it paid for a few pints, but you're never going to make serious money at that price. The interesting bit was that I was told that once it broke its duck over hurdles, then it would be switched over to the flat for awhile. Needless to say, its time has come tomorrow in the last at Leopardstown. Horse is 3lbs out of the handicap, but is rated 47 over the flat (as opposed to 114 over hurdles). I haven't spoken to my chum, but early betting should act as a guide for tomorrow. If there's early money for it, then get on.

Cheers francie. Though we were goosed.

newuser89

Why was there a rule 4
I lost 20 cents for every euro