CSO - Dublin House prices fall in Feb 2014, 2nd month in a row

moxin

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexfebruary2014/#.UzK2jah_tNo

Great news That's a fall in both January and February 2014. Its ironic given the reporting here by bulls that Dublin house prices have been increasing!

Awaiting to see which news outlets pick up on this story. Last month, the media hardly mentioned January's fall.

GavMan

Front page of the indo site. -0.6% in Dublin.

There was also a rise outside of Dublin.

Are dubs returning to the commuter belt???

marathonic

GavMan wrote: »

Are dubs returning to the commuter belt???

You're not going to gain any insight into the movement of people based on 1-2 months data. I'm not saying that the trend will, or won't, continue down but don't do too much analysis on figures over such a short timeframe.

GavMan

marathonic wrote: »

You're not going to gain any insight into the movement of people based on 1-2 months data. I'm not saying that the trend will, or won't, continue down but don't do too much analysis on figures over such a short timeframe.

Just postulating the theory and asking the question.

Could be a few large transactions in Cork/Galway/Limerick skewing things...who knows at this stage

marathonic

GavMan wrote: »

Just postulating the theory and asking the question.

Could be a few large transactions in Cork/Galway/Limerick skewing things...who knows at this stage

That's true. I'm still noticing significant falls locally athough, in fairness I'm in Donegal - an area that's now part of what's being called "the third tier of a 3-tier market".

The larger cities, such as those you've mentioned, probably have a lot of people panic buying after seeing the 2013 gains experienced in Dublin and fearing that they'll miss out again.

As we're all aware, a market involving panic buying is the last thing we want.

Cuddlesworth

Doesn't this data exclude cash which is currently the majority of the market?

spockety

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Doesn't this data exclude cash which is currently the majority of the market?

Yes, but it always has.

Lombardo86

Based on my experience (Albeit in SCD) of looking since the beginning of the year, it seems like it's up up up.

lima

Property Prices fall again in Dublin.

Bulls, I await your input..

Roger_007

These monthly ups and downs don't mean much. The volume of sales is so small that a few exceptional transactions can skew the overall percentage one way or the other. Also the fact that there are very few new houses coming on to the market that it is impossible to be sure that there is a definite trend. A normal market would have a good mix of new and second-hand homes being bought and sold.

The housing market in Dublin is in danger of grinding to a halt completely because of lack of supply both for sale and for rent.

Sand Wedge

moxin wrote: »

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexfebruary2014/#.UzK2jah_tNo

Great news That's a fall in both January and February 2014. Its ironic given the reporting here by bulls that Dublin house prices have been increasing!

Awaiting to see which news outlets pick up on this story. Last month, the media hardly mentioned January's fall.

Doesn't January/February of most years not always show a decline in house prices as this is when the market is normally at it's quietest. There was a decline in Jan/Feb 2012 and Feb/Mar 2013 but prices were still up overall in the year!

lima

Sand Wedge wrote: »

Doesn't January/February of most years not always show a decline in house prices as this is when the market is normally at it's quietest. There was a decline in Jan/Feb 2012 and Feb/Mar 2013 but prices were still up overall in the year!

I would say things are different now. Repossessions on the rise, less cash buyers, all the 'good deals' gone.. Prices will probably go down a bit more and then roughly stabilize. We are seeing price falls for two months in a row, no matter how annoyed you may be about it, it is happening.

Then again if all these freeloaders were booted out of the houses they occupy whilst not paying for them then prices would plummet!!

Sand Wedge

lima wrote: »

I would say things are different now. Repossessions on the rise, less cash buyers, all the 'good deals' gone.. Prices will probably go down a bit more and then roughly stabilize. We are seeing price falls for two months in a row, no matter how annoyed you may be about it, it is happening.

Then again if all these freeloaders were booted out of the houses they occupy whilst not paying for them then prices would plummet!!

Why would I be annoyed, from the data you have referenced a decrease of two months in a row is fairly normal. It happened last year and there was an annual increase of 13% per your data.

lima

Sand Wedge wrote: »

Why would I be annoyed, from the data you have referenced a decrease of two months in a row is fairly normal. It happened last year and there was an annual increase of 13% per your data.

I wouldn't know why you are annoyed, but fact is that the CSO reckons that property has been falling in value in Dublin all year so far, which is fabulous news.

Sand Wedge

lima wrote: »

I wouldn't know why you are annoyed, but fact is that the CSO reckons that property has been falling in value in Dublin all year so far, which is fabulous news.

All year lol, it is only two months and as I said it happened last year also and prices actually went up in the full year 13%.

moxin

Lombardo86 wrote: »

Based on my experience (Albeit in SCD) of looking since the beginning of the year, it seems like it's up up up.

SCD is a MINORITY market in Dublin.

lima

Sand Wedge wrote: »

All year lol, it is only two months and as I said it happened last year also and prices actually went up in the full year 13%.

You are right. Prices went up last year.

Prices this year have been falling so far. January and February had price falls in Dublin. Also, they have been trending this way for 4-5 months.

Right now it's cheaper for me to buy compared to December last year

Dr Turk Turkelton

lima wrote: »

You are right. Prices went up last year.

Prices this year have been falling so far. January and February had price falls in Dublin. Also, they have been trending this way for 4-5 months.

Right now it's cheaper for me to buy compared to December last year

A lot more expensive than 2012 though.Would have been the time to pull the trigger then.

lima

Dr Turk Turkelton wrote: »

A lot more expensive than 2012 though.Would have been the time to pull the trigger then.

For sure, and I was actually looking back then, but all that was around were scraps, which could be used as BTL's, but in my case I am looking for somewhere to live in, and up until now there has been nothing available to suit my standards. The place I rent suits me though and prices are still half of what people paid for them back in that boom. The lasted falling prices give me a tiny bit of hope too that madness v2 is not happening any longer.

Barely Hedged

lima wrote: »

For sure, and I was actually looking back then, but all that was around were scraps, which could be used as BTL's, but in my case I am looking for somewhere to live in, and up until now there has been nothing available to suit my standards. The place I rent suits me though and prices are still half of what people paid for them back in that boom. The lasted falling prices give me a tiny bit of hope too that madness v2 is not happening any longer.

I was also looking at places in 2012 in D2/D4/D6 and there were and i got decent places but the market for them was much more competitive than obvious BTL places.

If you want somewhere in a desirable location, thats move-in that day, top spec condition you will always pay a large premium for that and you will also face stiff competition for it. Waiting for the perfect storm of an ideal apartment, in turn key condition at rock bottom prices and you being the lone bidder on it will not happen.

My opinion is that if somewhere good comes along just go for it. Finding consolation in a small trend downwards in a quiet transaction period is just procrastination.

SeanSouth

The lower the prices go, the less supply that will be available

The higher the prices go, the more supply that will be available.

House prices have to rise in Dublin as there is not enough supply in areas that people wish to live. The lack of supply cant be corrected in the short term.

Repossessions do create more supply but they create an equal amount of extra demand as owners who are repossessed still need housing

The_Conductor

The interesting statistic in all of this- is the remarkable fall in the proportion of cash transactions- it would seem that a lot of the cash that was sitting on the fence has jumped. The numbers of mortgages drawn down- has also increased- albeit from an artificially low base.

Yes- prices have fallen for 2 months in a row- however- its part of a trend evidenced since June of last year- where the increases in Dublin prices were tapering. We discussed it then and since- and hypothesized that Dublin prices would turn negative around March of this year- so the falls in Jan/Feb are ahead of schedule- but predicted nonetheless.

All-in-all its meaningless. We do not have a properly functioning market. In the Dublin area- we don't have a functioning market, and we don't have supply. Elsewhere- we have supply- but we have vendors playing mindgames with potential purchasers.

People will read into it what they want- but all in all- I predict prices have plateau'ed for the time being- and will probably broadly pause, awaiting some outside factors before determining their next direction.

The biggest factor will probably be the budget in October- where the government are still expected to take another 2.5 billion out of the economy....... Where they're going to get it from- I really do not know.......

jay0109

from some analysis that I've seen on the Pin, supply in Dublin (per the PPR) for the past few months is up 24% or so over the last year. Perhaps thats whats driving the tapering off of price rises...though as noted above, I'm still seeing rise after rise in the 3-4 bed family home section of the market.

handlemaster

Its funny reading the posters who have the. dark cloud over their heads no matter what the weather. Negative the whole time and will never buy as there is no such thing as a perfect time to buy.

Belfunk

The market in Dublin 3,5 and 9 is going crazy.

Last Friday the asking on this was already at 200k.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/13-hawthorn-terrace-east-wall-dublin-3/2759857

This went on the market last week @ 300k, quickly changed to 350k Monday morning and today it has an offer of 400k 360k

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915

Brussels Sprout

You have to love the Indo's spin on the story

hfallada

There is such a small sample size to make an accurate percentage increase/decrease. I know if you look in an estate agents window nearly everything has a sale agreed sign on it. Which means they dont have enough new property for sale to replace the sale agreed ones on the window

Jaybor

Im gonna go out on a limb and predict that year on year Dublin house prices are going to be rising for a long time to come.
Monthly data is useless on its own, for obvious reasons that have been done to death on forums far and wide.

superman28

I want to point out the obvious,,, there are almost zero repossessions in Ireland.. This means that the supply of housing is restricted artificially, if the banks will actually begin the process of repossessing the family home is the great unknown... Socially in ireland we don't like this idea, however it is a basic economic principle that is being ignored by banks..

20,000 houses would flood the market at low priced to sell prices if we ran the same levels of repossessions as the UK,, it's all here from the Sunday business post..

mrmitty

Jaybor wrote: »

Im gonna go out on a limb and predict that year on year Dublin house prices are going to be rising for a long time to come.
.......

You may very well be correct but if house prices rise by any more than inflation over an extended period then sooner or later you're going to pay the piper if you speculate.

mrmitty

The_Conductor wrote: »

The interesting statistic in all of this- is the remarkable fall in the proportion of cash transactions- it would seem that a lot of the cash that was sitting on the fence has jumped. The numbers of mortgages drawn down- has also increased- albeit from an artificially low base.

Yes- prices have fallen for 2 months in a row- however- its part of a trend evidenced since June of last year- where the increases in Dublin prices were tapering. We discussed it then and since- and hypothesized that Dublin prices would turn negative around March of this year- so the falls in Jan/Feb are ahead of schedule- but predicted nonetheless.

All-in-all its meaningless. We do not have a properly functioning market. In the Dublin area- we don't have a functioning market, and we don't have supply. Elsewhere- we have supply- but we have vendors playing mindgames with potential purchasers.

People will read into it what they want- but all in all- I predict prices have plateau'ed for the time being- and will probably broadly pause, awaiting some outside factors before determining their next direction.

The biggest factor will probably be the budget in October- where the government are still expected to take another 2.5 billion out of the economy....... Where they're going to get it from- I really do not know.......

There is no such thing as a "properly functioning property market"in Ireland and there hasn't been one in a long time, if ever.
There is no due process, supply is restricted artificially and the intertwined political and landed class have a stranglehold on it's functionality.
I feel for those who have to purchase or rent in Dublin or elsewhere in Ireland for that matter. It has become a form of enslavement.
All you young people just starting out be warned.

Idbatterim

firstly the sample size as has been mentioned is tiny and given the paltry amount of sales, a few big or small ones can skew the numbers easily enough. I know of a guy looking to buy for the past few years, cash buyer, he should have jumped years ago, he was out looking at loads of houses towards the end of the year, now he doesnt feel the urgency anymore, whatever good value was out there, has well and truly disappeared, so where is the rush, he might just decide at these prices, that renting is the better option...

I mean, I'll be happy if prices continue to fall in one way, but if you offered me a grand on whether houses prices in dublin would be higher or lower than at present, this time next year, it would be going on higher, no doubt about it...

lima

It's funny people saying that month-on-month doesn't matter or that there are not many transactions etc. - they were raving about monthly rises when they were happening, why are they not taking the data into account now that prices are falling in Dublin?

lima

Belfunk wrote: »

The market in Dublin 3,5 and 9 is going crazy.

Last Friday the asking on this was already at 200k.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/13-hawthorn-terrace-east-wall-dublin-3/2759857

This went on the market last week @ 300k, quickly changed to 350k Monday morning and today it has an offer of 400k 360k

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915

Here seriously though, don't let EA's random and arbitrary asking price rises and falls into account. They are just playing the market and know exactly what they are doing. I'm sure they have a complex plan for example they may put up a property at 250k for a few weeks, get a few viewings and already know quite well they will raise the asking up to 300k, stoking the fire from pent up demand. They are clever and know people get emo about property in Ireland.

Sand Wedge

lima wrote: »

It's funny people saying that month-on-month doesn't matter or that there are not many transactions etc. - they were raving about monthly rises when they were happening, why are they not taking the data into account now that prices are falling in Dublin?

If this month-on-month decrease happens later in year it will matter. But when the month-on month decrease at the start of the year is what happens normally then that is why people are not taking the price falls into account.

I for one hope that prices will level off this year and only increase in line with inflation.

handlemaster

lima wrote: »

Here seriously though, don't let EA's random and arbitrary asking price rises and falls into account. They are just playing the market and know exactly what they are doing. I'm sure they have a complex plan for example they may put up a property at 250k for a few weeks, get a few viewings and already know quite well they will raise the asking up to 300k, stoking the fire from pent up demand. They are clever and know people get emo about property in Ireland.

Most shocking statement yet EA are clever .. next they will be able to control the market !!

jon1981

lima wrote: »

Here seriously though, don't let EA's random and arbitrary asking price rises and falls into account. They are just playing the market and know exactly what they are doing. I'm sure they have a complex plan for example they may put up a property at 250k for a few weeks, get a few viewings and already know quite well they will raise the asking up to 300k, stoking the fire from pent up demand. They are clever and know people get emo about property in Ireland.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915

this is 380k now

handlemaster

jon1981 wrote: »

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915

this is 380k now

Would think that's high for that house

jon1981

handlemaster wrote: »

Would think that's high for that house

given the work needed in side, i'd agree. 2 houses sold on that road 40-50k shy of that, one needs serious work, the other walk in condition. I guess nice area, good transport options, family house...etc. just what ppl are looking for right now.

bombs away

it's a bloody rip off for that house to be honest, not even that decent an area. Anyone who pays that needs their head examined

jon1981

house literally around the corner went for 400-500k. I know this will make ppls heads spin but in the "good times" you were looking at over 500k for houses on that road. I know that area pretty well as I was looking all around there during our house hunt last year.

jon1981

this is becoming a joke

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

400k now, that's 2 price rises in a day

stevedublin

jon1981 wrote: »

this is becoming a joke

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

400k now, that's 2 price rises in a day

buy now before it goes to 420k

jay0109

jon1981 wrote: »

this is becoming a joke

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

400k now, that's 2 price rises in a day

This must be what Enda Kenny referred to recently!
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-says-pent-up-demand-causing-sharp-property-price-rises-1.1729997

who_ru

jon1981 wrote: »

this is becoming a joke

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

400k now, that's 2 price rises in a day

Nobody has to pay those prices, why they are is anyone's guess. The Dublin housing market is a rigged game, more so than ever now. Little or no supply, vendors ripping it up with asking prices, EAs getting 10,20,30 couples to a viewing and a bidding war breaks out. The 'must buy now' mentality is very strong still, panic is still very much part of the decision making process, media spin on asking prices, management of nationalised banks on the one hand writing off debt for some mortgage holders, while at the same time putting 5% + interest rates on new mortgage holders. It's a trap I'd prefer to avoid.

harpsman

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/market-bounces-back-as-mortgage-approvals-up-33pc-30133841.html

handlemaster

harpsman wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/market-bounces-back-as-mortgage-approvals-up-33pc-30133841.html

I'm all for been positive but the indo would say anything to give a positive spin on property in Ireland they are long pass any kind of credibility.

handlemaster

harpsman wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/market-bounces-back-as-mortgage-approvals-up-33pc-30133841.html

I'm all for been positive but the indo would say anything to give a positive spin on property in Ireland they are long pass any kind of credibility.

jon1981

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/03/2832014-irish-mortgages-approvals.html

Number of new mortgages approved is running well below the trend, so improvement in February is driven by something other than market growth. Instead, it is driven (as argued below) by extraordinary volatility in approvals around the end of 2012 - beginning of 2013, which was down to expiration of tax breaks at the end of 2012.
Average mortgage approved is on-trend and the trend is down not up. So things are getting worse, not better.

I notice how the Indo won't allow comments under that article...

who_ru

Charlie Weston is the Paul Reynolds of financial reporting, totally biased and totally unbelievable.

Jaybor

I get the feeling that all of the people coming out with the sarcastic little slogans (eg "Quick buy now before they go up again", "Have we learned nothing") that slate the people buying or who have bought houses, may actually end up being the ones who are sorry in the end.

Do a quick calculation of how much you need to live on when you retire if you are renting and if you own your house by then.

Then go to pensionsboard.ie and calculate how much more its going to cost you to make up the shortfall in extra pension payments. Scary.