Wales v Scotland, RBS 6 Nations, Millenium Stadium Cardiff, 15/03/2014 14.45

Larbre34

Preview by irishbucsfan

Wales

|

V

|

Scotland

||
Liam Williams|15|Stuart Hogg
Alex Cuthbert|14|Dougie Fife
Jonathan Davies|13|Alex Dunbar
Jamie Roberts|12|Matt Scott
George North|11|Max Evans
Dan Biggar|10|Duncan Weir
Mike Phillips|9|Greg Laidlaw
Gethin Jenkins|1|Ryan Grant
Ken Owens|2|Scott Lawson
Rhodri Jones|3|Geoff Cross
Luke Charteris|4|Richie Gray
Al Wyn Jones|5|Jim Hamilton
Dan Lydiate|6|Ryan Wilson
Sam Warburton (C)|7|Kelly Brown (C)
Taulupe Faletau|8|Dave Denton
|Replacements
Richard Hibbard|16|Ross Ford
Paul James|17|Al Dickinson
Adam Jones|18|Euan Murray
Jake Ball|19|Tim Swinson
Justin Tipuric|20|Al Strokosch
Rhys Webb|21|Chris Cussiter
Rhys Priestland|22|Duncan Taylor
James Hook|23|Jack Cuthbert

As the 6 Nations Championship threatens to close with a bang in Rome and Paris, it is left to taper away in Cardiff. Wales and Scotland meet in the Millennium Stadium for the 8th time on Saturday with little more than pride left to play for, although for some it will mean far more.

Venue: Millenium Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Jérôme Garcès
Assistant referees: Chris Pollock, Greg Garner
Kick-off: 14:45 GMT

Where Did It Go Wrong?

To call the 2014 6 Nations season a disappointment for these two sides would be an understatement, although both had set out with very different expectations. Wales are reigning champions of this competition, and some of their performances this year have left fans bewildered and disappointed. In previous years they have played confidently and authoritatively and dominated their way to many successful victories. Warren Gatland is a name which demands respect in Welsh rugby, so where has it all gone wrong? Poor half back play and a lack of discipline have left Wales in poor positions, both on the field and in the rankings of the competition itself. While a squad that is this experienced and settled is often a strong thing for a nation to possess, there is that danger that they can become too reliant on things which have worked previously, and cracks once papered over can be reopened.

The Welsh have a lot of very talented players, of that there is no doubt. Especially up front, where they have earned a lot of their victories throughout the years. "Gatty ball" saw them wrestle control of possession off their opponents and refuse to give it up, with double digit phase counts an expectation, where they would be an objective for most other sides. In 2009 the changes at the breakdown saw teams who sought to control games with defensive dominance (see South Africa, Ireland) marginalised in favour of teams who could control the ball offensively at the breakdown, and this shifted the spectre of public appreciation away from the likes of Declan Kidney and Peter De Villiers, straight into the open arms of the likes of Warren Gatland.

However such an approach to the game is dependent on control of the ball. And control of the ball is dependent on communication and understanding within a side, and more importantly strong performances from half backs. The decline of Mike Phillips and the repeated failures of the likes of Dan Biggar and Rhys Priestland to deliver consistently at international level meant a sufficient level of control was not available to Wales. And so the cracks began to show. This was a Welsh team that had moulded itself into a bludgeon, beating its opponents to death consistently over long possessions, and lacked the rapier-like attacking qualities developed by teams who are unable to achieve such a feat. And so Wales ambled through this year's Championship looking flat and without attacking nous.

North of the border, and then North of another border, Scotland entered this year's Championship with the hopes that Scott Johnson was more than a soundbite merchant. The charismatic, yet bewildering, figure charged with taking care of Scottish rugby until the arrival of Vern Cotter seemed to be confident that he knew what he was doing, which was good because noone else seemed to.

To put it lightly, Scotland have not been very good in this year's Championship. They look committed, and they certainly have some strong individuals, but they seem to lack a gameplan that can force opponents into dangerous positions. There is no doubt that they are not the most talented side in the competition, but that does not mean they should not be competitive. They have a potentially dangerous lineout and backs who should have the kicking ability to put that lineout in strong positions. However they don't seem capable of taking control in any of their games, and it's sad to see them fall so low. Certainly their constant change of captaincy can't be helping their plight.

In Inceptum Finis Est

They say styles make fights. However I wonder if this fight might just dictate the style of these teams going forward. Dan Biggar is reintroduced to a Welsh side beside fallen star Mike Phillips in what seems a rather drastic attempt to improve the poor performances of the Welsh half backs this season. Warren Gatland will be hoping that these two can take control of the game away from the Scottish and prove that "Gatty ball" can still have it's day. Expect the Welsh to hold onto possession and attempt to create mismatches over time against a diminutive and unbalanced Scottish backline. If either of the two Scottish wingers can be isolated it could mean big trouble for Scotland. The Scots meanwhile will be looking for Kelly Brown and his boys to create havoc with Welsh possession, and for Dunbar and Scott to be aggressive with their line speed in defense.

When the Scottish have possession, they need to be very selective with how they use it. There is no joy to be gained from attempting prolonged attacks against this Welsh team. Their defensive systems are solid and they are operated by players who are extremely familiar with them. Moreover, the Scottish pack will be incapable of beating the Welsh to breakdowns after 3 or 4 phases of their own possession. The temptation for teams is to let loose on the final day of the tournament, but that will lead to ruin for the Scottish team. If they are going to play the ball, it needs to be in Welsh territory. Laidlaw and Weir need to ensure that their kicking game is precise. There may be space to be found between Cuthbert and Williams, but if there is not then kicks need to be contestible and they need to be chased effectively. I expect to see Stuart Hogg joining the line out wide and kicking from there, in the hopes of drawing their back three up field to create space. If the Welsh lineout misfires, this phase of play could be a game changer.

Key Men
Wales - Mike Phillips & Dan Biggar

It's hard to isolate which of these two performances will be more important for Wales on Saturday. They will need to get their decision making right, deciding when to kick as well as how. More importantly however they will need to be awake to Scottish defensive frailties to ensure their dangerous backs can take advantage of them. A strong performance from both could allow Wales to walk away from this Championship with renewed vigour, this game is not just about the scoreboard.

Scotland - Kelly Brown

They don't come much tougher than Kelly Brown. Scotland's captain needs to ensure his men are on the same page in defense and that they are aggresive enough to prevent the Welsh from consistently marching up the field. At the same time, he himself will need to be investing himself into any loose breakdowns at every opportunity. The battle between Brown and the Welsh back row (Warburton in particular) when Wales are in possession will be absolutely fascinating for the purists.

Verdict

Saturday's game will surely come a year too soon for this Scottish team. Vern Cotter will welcome a Welsh side to Murrayfield in 2015 and hopefully the Scottish will be in a much stronger position on that day. There are some wonderful Scottish rugby fans out there, and I hope for their sake we will be able to view their team in a more positive light on that day.

For Saturday however, I expect the Welsh to rally at home. Scotland will not roll over, and the Welsh are not a team to decimate weak opposition, but I see this one being a comfortable 15-20 point victory to Wales.

I will be at this one myself, through some work commitments. I am looking forward to meeting some good Welsh fans. Not just so I can remind them of the score in Dublin either, they are good rugby folk and they often do their country a great credit. I might also drink some of their brutal alcohol, but if I'm lucky I'll be able to avoid that.

irishbucsfan

Ha, I'm in the middle of a preview for this but I keep getting pulled away!

Larbre34

Feel free to replace my very tongue in cheekness with the preview! A lot of pride on the line for both sides.

irishbucsfan

I've done the wordy bits, I just need to do the colourdy bits.

Podge_irl

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I've done the wordy bits, I just need to do the colourdy bits.

And the table.

Don't forget the table.

razorblunt

Dougie Fife is on the wing, the Welsh are focked, focked I tells ya!

irishbucsfan

Wales

|

V

|

Scotland

||
Liam Williams|15|Stuart Hogg
Alex Cuthbert|14|Dougie Fife
Jonathan Davies|13|Alex Dunbar
Jamie Roberts|12|Matt Scott
George North|11|Max Evans
Dan Biggar|10|Duncan Weir
Mike Phillips|9|Greg Laidlaw
Gethin Jenkins|1|Ryan Grant
Ken Owens|2|Scott Lawson
Rhodri Jones|3|Geoff Cross
Luke Charteris|4|Richie Gray
Al Wyn Jones|5|Jim Hamilton
Dan Lydiate|6|Ryan Wilson
Sam Warburton (C)|7|Kelly Brown (C)
Taulupe Faletau|8|Dave Denton
|Replacements
Richard Hibbard|16|Ross Ford
Paul James|17|Al Dickinson
Adam Jones|18|Euan Murray
Jake Ball|19|Tim Swinson
Justin Tipuric|20|Al Strokosch
Rhys Webb|21|Chris Cussiter
Rhys Priestland|22|Duncan Taylor
James Hook|23|Jack Cuthbert

As the 6 Nations Championship threatens to close with a bang in Rome and Paris, it is left to taper away in Cardiff. Wales and Scotland meet in the Millennium Stadium for the 8th time on Saturday with little more than pride left to play for, although for some it will mean far more.

Venue: Millenium Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Jérôme Garcès
Assistant referees: Chris Pollock, Greg Garner
Kick-off: 14:45 GMT

Where Did It Go Wrong?

To call the 2014 6 Nations season a disappointment for these two sides would be an understatement, although both had set out with very different expectations. Wales are reigning champions of this competition, and some of their performances this year have left fans bewildered and disappointed. In previous years they have played confidently and authoritatively and dominated their way to many successful victories. Warren Gatland is a name which demands respect in Welsh rugby, so where has it all gone wrong? Poor half back play and a lack of discipline have left Wales in poor positions, both on the field and in the rankings of the competition itself. While a squad that is this experienced and settled is often a strong thing for a nation to possess, there is that danger that they can become too reliant on things which have worked previously, and cracks once papered over can be reopened.

The Welsh have a lot of very talented players, of that there is no doubt. Especially up front, where they have earned a lot of their victories throughout the years. "Gatty ball" saw them wrestle control of possession off their opponents and refuse to give it up, with double digit phase counts an expectation, where they would be an objective for most other sides. In 2009 the changes at the breakdown saw teams who sought to control games with defensive dominance (see South Africa, Ireland) marginalised in favour of teams who could control the ball offensively at the breakdown, and this shifted the spectre of public appreciation away from the likes of Declan Kidney and Peter De Villiers, straight into the open arms of the likes of Warren Gatland.

However such an approach to the game is dependent on control of the ball. And control of the ball is dependent on communication and understanding within a side, and more importantly strong performances from half backs. The decline of Mike Phillips and the repeated failures of the likes of Dan Biggar and Rhys Priestland to deliver consistently at international level meant a sufficient level of control was not available to Wales. And so the cracks began to show. This was a Welsh team that had moulded itself into a bludgeon, beating its opponents to death consistently over long possessions, and lacked the rapier-like attacking qualities developed by teams who are unable to achieve such a feat. And so Wales ambled through this year's Championship looking flat and without attacking nous.

North of the border, and then North of another border, Scotland entered this year's Championship with the hopes that Scott Johnson was more than a soundbite merchant. The charismatic, yet bewildering, figure charged with taking care of Scottish rugby until the arrival of Vern Cotter seemed to be confident that he knew what he was doing, which was good because noone else seemed to.

To put it lightly, Scotland have not been very good in this year's Championship. They look committed, and they certainly have some strong individuals, but they seem to lack a gameplan that can force opponents into dangerous positions. There is no doubt that they are not the most talented side in the competition, but that does not mean they should not be competitive. They have a potentially dangerous lineout and backs who should have the kicking ability to put that lineout in strong positions. However they don't seem capable of taking control in any of their games, and it's sad to see them fall so low. Certainly their constant change of captaincy can't be helping their plight.

In Inceptum Finis Est

They say styles make fights. However I wonder if this fight might just dictate the style of these teams going forward. Dan Biggar is reintroduced to a Welsh side beside fallen star Mike Phillips in what seems a rather drastic attempt to improve the poor performances of the Welsh half backs this season. Warren Gatland will be hoping that these two can take control of the game away from the Scottish and prove that "Gatty ball" can still have it's day. Expect the Welsh to hold onto possession and attempt to create mismatches over time against a diminutive and unbalanced Scottish backline. If either of the two Scottish wingers can be isolated it could mean big trouble for Scotland. The Scots meanwhile will be looking for Kelly Brown and his boys to create havoc with Welsh possession, and for Dunbar and Scott to be aggressive with their line speed in defense.

When the Scottish have possession, they need to be very selective with how they use it. There is no joy to be gained from attempting prolonged attacks against this Welsh team. Their defensive systems are solid and they are operated by players who are extremely familiar with them. Moreover, the Scottish pack will be incapable of beating the Welsh to breakdowns after 3 or 4 phases of their own possession. The temptation for teams is to let loose on the final day of the tournament, but that will lead to ruin for the Scottish team. If they are going to play the ball, it needs to be in Welsh territory. Laidlaw and Weir need to ensure that their kicking game is precise. There may be space to be found between Cuthbert and Williams, but if there is not then kicks need to be contestible and they need to be chased effectively. I expect to see Stuart Hogg joining the line out wide and kicking from there, in the hopes of drawing their back three up field to create space. If the Welsh lineout misfires, this phase of play could be a game changer.

Key Men
Wales - Mike Phillips & Dan Biggar

It's hard to isolate which of these two performances will be more important for Wales on Saturday. They will need to get their decision making right, deciding when to kick as well as how. More importantly however they will need to be awake to Scottish defensive frailties to ensure their dangerous backs can take advantage of them. A strong performance from both could allow Wales to walk away from this Championship with renewed vigour, this game is not just about the scoreboard.

Scotland - Kelly Brown

They don't come much tougher than Kelly Brown. Scotland's captain needs to ensure his men are on the same page in defense and that they are aggresive enough to prevent the Welsh from consistently marching up the field. At the same time, he himself will need to be investing himself into any loose breakdowns at every opportunity. The battle between Brown and the Welsh back row (Warburton in particular) when Wales are in possession will be absolutely fascinating for the purists.

Verdict

Saturday's game will surely come a year too soon for this Scottish team. Vern Cotter will welcome a Welsh side to Murrayfield in 2015 and hopefully the Scottish will be in a much stronger position on that day. There are some wonderful Scottish rugby fans out there, and I hope for their sake we will be able to view their team in a more positive light on that day.

For Saturday however, I expect the Welsh to rally at home. Scotland will not roll over, and the Welsh are not a team to decimate weak opposition, but I see this one being a comfortable 15-20 point victory to Wales.

I will be at this one myself, through some work commitments. I am looking forward to meeting some good Welsh fans. Not just so I can remind them of the score in Dublin either, they are good rugby folk and they often do their country a great credit. I might also drink some of their brutal alcohol, but if I'm lucky I'll be able to avoid that.

marienbad

Larbre34 wrote: »

Feel free to replace my very tongue in cheekness with the preview! A lot of pride on the line for both sides.

I am waiting for Cary Grant to appear.

Swiwi.

Hmmm, IBF has thanked his own preview...

...and then to prove his point has repeated the preview further down the page for good measure

.ak, what are you doing?!

irishbucsfan

The Welsh fellas at lunch here are all telling me they want ireland to win. So ill be supporting them!

Roof closed if anyone is interested.

ScrubsfanChris

irishbucsfan wrote: »

The Welsh fellas at lunch here are all telling me they want ireland to win. So ill be supporting them!

Roof closed if anyone is interested.

What the hell is the point of a retractable roof if you keep it closed on a day like this

No wonder the grass is always f*cked

wicklowdub

Hard to be excited about this one, just want it out the way and the Ireland match to start really

Celly Smunt

wicklowdub wrote: »

Harhd to be excited about this one, just want it out the way and the Ireland match to start really

You could always watch it from the point of view of how scotland will try their best to lose? Always entertaining.

Inner City Hedgehog

Is there a prize for the most stupidly dressed person in the crowd?

Celly Smunt

Inner City Hedgehog wrote: »

Is there a prize for the most stupidly dressed person in the crowd?

Just wait until you see the leprechauns in paris

wp_rathead

Is Halfpenny injured or dropped?

cruiserweight

Come on Scotland, win be enough and they can overtake Wales

Lapin

Impressive previews lads but it's hard to get excited about this game.

Pity it wasn't on first.

Wales by 22 points.

Crazy decision to close the roof today.

Taco Corp

wprathead wrote: »

Is Halfpenny injured or dropped?

injured, out for the season

Swan Curry

wprathead wrote: »

Is Halfpenny injured or dropped?

Dislocated shoulder,out for the rest of the season.

Kanrith

wprathead wrote: »

Is Halfpenny injured or dropped?

Injured, out for the season I think.

Pudsy33

wprathead wrote: »

Is Halfpenny injured or dropped?

Injured

Lapin

So Halfpenny is injured then yes ?

sydthebeat

I think the whole of Ireland just groaned "ah not him"

laugh

I dislike Liam Williams.

Lapin

Nice try. He fairly jumped over that line !

Some kick that.

Celly Smunt

Who needs halfpenny?

CatFromHue

laugh wrote: »

I dislike Liam Williams.

Now there's a guy who is easy to dislike!

Principal Skinner

Are Liam Williams and Owen Farrell brothers? Have to be the most hateable players in world rugby

petebricquette

Feck sake, of all people to score.

LightningBlue

How is Biggar second choice to Priestland? Seriously

CatFromHue

Principal Skinner wrote: »

Are Liam Williams and Owen Farrell brothers? Have to be the most hateable players in world rugby

What's Owen Farrell ever done?

sydthebeat

CatFromHue wrote: »

What's Owen Farrell ever done?

Petulant, mouthy and childish.

Celly Smunt

CatFromHue wrote: »

What's Owen Farrell ever done?

lI'll take that as sarcasm

Lord Trollington

CatFromHue wrote: »

What's Owen Farrell ever done?

Presumably he has just one of those pompous heads on him.

LightningBlue

Well that was a stupid cheap shot. Feck sake could have broke his jaw. Should be red.

Lardy

CatFromHue wrote: »

What's Owen Farrell ever done?

I'm an England fan and I'd like to kick him in the teath. He's an arrogant so and so, not to mention dirty at times...

Kaizersoze81

gone. well deserved

RuggieBear

well done ref.

probably not allowed under the protocols but right decision

Pudsy33

Never realized Hogg was an utter prat?

And that's the end of this as a game

KERSPLAT!

Ouch! Deserved red

DDC1990

Red for Hogg.

A certain yellow but a red seems a little harsh.

Was nasty though.

EDIT: Watching that replay angle he knew what he was doing. To the head area. Red is fair.

errlloyd

Absolutely unfair call, hogg knew nothing about it. Yellow, but red is harsh

LightningBlue

Utter dirt by Hogg. Lined him up when he was completely defenseless.

RuggieBear

no more name calling

wicklowdub

right decision, very silly and he meant it by the look of it.

ThisRegard

RuggieBear wrote: »

well done ref.

probably not allowed under the protocols but right decision

First time I saw it happen.

aimee1

Nice to see a ref admit his mistake and correct it. Stupid thing to do

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

CatFromHue wrote: »

What's Owen Farrell ever done?

plenty

Tim Riggins

Just like Clancy robbed the Allblacks in 2011 against SA ruling for a fwd pass pre-try when he couldn't ask.dont think the ref can do that