Would I be totally mad?

simx

Have thought about it a few times off and on about going milking next year and have always said I wouldn't be able to milk a big number, although I wouldn't have to spend big money to get setup, we milked here years ago and have been suckling since, got out of my sucklers and just have drystock now, realistically I could milk 40-45 cows and wouldn't chance anymore, because of thinking of wet year, etc. land around house would only allow me milk that number, have enough housing and cubicles included, have old parlour there, 6 unit but would do the finest too, would have to get tank and plate cooler and tip up a few other things to be ready to go but nothing major and not big € towards what other lads are spending, have read before that it takes roughly 45-50 cows to pay a mans wage, but that's now, I'm very cautious about making a move as I'd be worried I'd get in and set up and then the arse would fall out of it, but no one knows what will happen milk price, so said I'd put the idea out there

bbam

simx wrote: »

Have thought about it a few times off and on about going milking next year and have always said I wouldn't be able to milk a big number, although I wouldn't have to spend big money to get setup, we milked here years ago and have been suckling since, got out of my sucklers and just have drystock now, realistically I could milk 40-45 cows and wouldn't chance anymore, because of thinking of wet year, etc. land around house would only allow me milk that number, have enough housing and cubicles included, have old parlour there, 6 unit but would do the finest too, would have to get tank and plate cooler and tip up a few other things to be ready to go but nothing major and not big € towards what other lads are spending, have read before that it takes roughly 45-50 cows to pay a mans wage, but that's now, I'm very cautious about making a move as I'd be worried I'd get in and set up and then the arse would fall out of it, but no one knows what will happen milk price, so said I'd put the idea out there

So.. last figures I saw were quoting margins of ~€800/cow in dairy.
Knock that down by 30% gives you €560/cow

How would you feel about that margin for the additional workload..
Looking at your required investment, how would those sort of returns sit ??

I'd have thought lads with existing 40 cow herds could contine to make modist incomes providing mild revenue doesn't drop too far... but I'm not sure if there was a huge investment to be made would the returns warrant it.

Other things that would be worrying me...
What is to stop the price collapsing completly 2 years down the road, akin to the way beef factories manupilate the price.?
If you got a call and were told that any milk supplied from 1 May to 1 Sept was at 50% of usual price because of the glut at that time?

cute geoge

Go for it , imo once u keep it simple u cant go far wrong . Worst case milk drops to 20 cent u still make more out of it then drystock. The only drawback is u are tied to milking day in day out . This year 50 1k gallons cow should turnover 100,ooo

simx

bbam wrote: »

So.. last figures I saw were quoting margins of ~€800/cow in dairy.
Knock that down by 30% gives you €560/cow

How would you feel about that margin for the additional workload..
Looking at your required investment, how would those sort of returns sit ??

sure it would sit ok in fairness, I know its a 7 day twice a day thing but I always had a fondness for milking anyway

I'd have thought lads with existing 40 cow herds could contine to make modist incomes providing mild revenue doesn't drop too far... but I'm not sure if there was a huge investment to be made would the returns warrant it.

well that's the thing I reckon 10k would get me out buying a 2nd hand tank and getting things up and going, the drystock should cancel out cost of cows

Other things that would be worrying me...
What is to stop the price collapsing completly 2 years down the road, akin to the way beef factories manupilate the price.?
If you got a call and were told that any milk supplied from 1 May to 1 Sept was at 50% of usual price because of the glut at that time?

that is a big thing worrying me too, talked to lads and they say there will be 5 good years at least, how could you say that for sure? lads that killed bulls this time last year were making a few bob and no problem getting them killed, now they are begging factories to take them at a loss

simx

cute geoge wrote: »

Go for it , imo once u keep it simple u cant go far wrong . Worst case milk drops to 20 cent u still make more out of it then drystock. The only drawback is u are tied to milking day in day out . This year 50 1k gallons cow should turnover 100,ooo

I know you are tied to it, would be a stinker at times alright but nothing that ya couldn't get over, the cashflow every month is appealing aspect of milking too, could anyone tell me a modest figure for cost per litre, and what would be included in costings

kevthegaff

id put in a 10-12 unit so yel be finished the milking in no length and yel have time for a job or other things

maxxuumman

kevthegaff wrote: »

id put in a 10-12 unit so yel be finished the milking in no length and yel have time for a job or other things

Wasn't there a guy on the IFJ donkey's years ago that put in a 30 unit Parlour for 60 cows. No cow yard, basically built Parlour on the cow passage. Had milking done in a matter of minutes.

bbam

simx wrote: »

I know you are tied to it, would be a stinker at times alright but nothing that ya couldn't get over, the cashflow every month is appealing aspect of milking too, could anyone tell me a modest figure for cost per litre, and what would be included in costings

Cash flow isnt profit though... Living off cash flow is a dangerous game, first blip and your sunk !!

simx

bbam wrote: »

Cash flow isnt profit though... Living off cash flow is a dangerous game, first blip and your sunk !!

Oh I know that. Net profit is what is what matters at the end of the day

bbam

simx wrote: »

that is a big thing worrying me too, talked to lads and they say there will be 5 good years at least, how could you say that for sure? lads that killed bulls this time last year were making a few bob and no problem getting them killed, now they are begging factories to take them at a loss

Indeed..
Lads are taking a huge gamble that the processors will behave ethically. However, evidence shows that processors - when they have you dependant on them are anything but ethical. Farms in the beef industury have become slaves to the factories whims, personally I see milk going the same way.

F.D

simx wrote: »

Have thought about it a few times off and on about going milking next year and have always said I wouldn't be able to milk a big number, although I wouldn't have to spend big money to get setup, we milked here years ago and have been suckling since, got out of my sucklers and just have drystock now, realistically I could milk 40-45 cows and wouldn't chance anymore, because of thinking of wet year, etc. land around house would only allow me milk that number, have enough housing and cubicles included, have old parlour there, 6 unit but would do the finest too, would have to get tank and plate cooler and tip up a few other things to be ready to go but nothing major and not big € towards what other lads are spending, have read before that it takes roughly 45-50 cows to pay a mans wage, but that's now, I'm very cautious about making a move as I'd be worried I'd get in and set up and then the arse would fall out of it, but no one knows what will happen milk price, so said I'd put the idea out there

if you can do it low cost enough, why not, as as already stated will still pay better than other types of farming providing your not borrowing too much, but then how much borrowing is done and supported by the off farm job in the beef and suckler game anyway so no difference in this case if the milking is kept simple and the set up is efficient, my opinion is for a small herd the breed of cow and the calf is also important, from what i see a good calf to sell if milk price is bad could be a nice bonus

onyerbikepat

Why not just wait and see how things pan out? There will be a bit of a goldrush at the start, but when prices level off, you will have a clearer picture of where you stand.

dzer2

In the same boat here have parlour and dairy all fields reseeded in last 15 yrs or so Fields in paddocks with water supply and road way. Can run 40 cows with 8 to 10 followers. Nearly better set up than most have teenage sons looking to milk and an Uncle that helps out whenever we go on holiday. Have all our own machinery for silage and slurry. Was thinking of renting cows for the first years.

leg wax

simx i am in the same boat and did some costings, same set up as you, need a bigger tank 750 gallons not big enough,it needs a new compresser and auto wash,so they were 5k, second hand tank 12-14 k. 6 k to get parlour up and going,plate cooler ,water heater,etc etc, meal bin 3k, so up and going for 30k max, to milk 40 cows, not bad but will still wait as i cant see milk been dumped for the first months as a great way of starting out, and the supply of heifers is also a problem.

bogman_bass

an important question you have to ask is why did you get out of cows first time round?

simx

bogman_bass wrote: »

an important question you have to ask is why did you get out of cows first time round?

We are finished milking 10 or so years due to health issues at the time

leg wax

bogman_bass wrote: »

an important question you have to ask is why did you get out of cows first time round?

family reasons, it was costing me 350 euros a acre to lease the home place and with only 35 acres.i mind the kids now instead of paying some one else to do it,i sold the qouta used the money, now i have a chance to go back at it with no qoutas,still have not made up my mind, loved milking the cows and i am milking this weekend for a friend.kids are older also and that helps a great deal, for me and my family i made the correct choice,esp since glanbia are now not just going to charge new suppliers on new milk, but sly glanbia will just take a cent off all milk going in to pay for bellview.

bogman_bass

in both those cases things have changed sufficently in the mean time but I think some guys might have short memories when they are getting back in the game

dzer2

bogman_bass wrote: »

an important question you have to ask is why did you get out of cows first time round?

2 factors,

The father was doing the milking while I worked he had a brain haemorage and that winter a cow died and the dep said it was bse and took the herd.

I was working over seas and had a good job.

Now I am home full time minding the kids and have all the facilities to go back in.

simx

dzer2 wrote: »

2 factors,

The father was doing the milking while I worked he had a brain haemorage and that winter a cow died and the dep said it was bse and took the herd.

I was working over seas and had a good job.

Now I am home full time minding the kids and have all the facilities to go back in.

farming on paper i could hold rougly 60 cows but with land type it would be a nightmare on a bad year, no bother last year but a 2012 and a disaster, is your land heavyish dzer2? i know from past posts you are somewhere in my locality, would land type be an issue with you too? im just very cautious would it be viable after 2015? even if i got 5 good years and had to throw my hat at it after that id still be happy, one neighbour going back at it next year and will be milking 60, he says hes going to keep all calves as all land not near yard, the only thing is he has to make money for himself and father so at 40-45 going by what hes going at i should be ok, i know theres loads of ifs and buts and i cant compare myself to my neighbour, noboby said its going to be a sucess, going into teagasc next week for a chat, anyone want to throw a modest example of cost to produce a litre of milk to be going by? would be greatly appreciated

dzer2

simx wrote: »

farming on paper i could hold rougly 60 cows but with land type it would be a nightmare on a bad year, no bother last year but a 2012 and a disaster, is your land heavyish dzer2? i know from past posts you are somewhere in my locality, would land type be an issue with you too? im just very cautious would it be viable after 2015? even if i got 5 good years and had to throw my hat at it after that id still be happy, one neighbour going back at it next year and will be milking 60, he says hes going to keep all calves as all land not near yard, the only thing is he has to make money for himself and father so at 40-45 going by what hes going at i should be ok, i know theres loads of ifs and buts and i cant compare myself to my neighbour, noboby said its going to be a sucess, going into teagasc next week for a chat, anyone want to throw a modest example of cost to produce a litre of milk to be going by? would be greatly appreciated

We survived in 87 poor yr and in 97 another poor yr we made a few quid. Land is heavy here but still have the cows out with a better cash flow and more grass awareness in the autumn I would be able to be out 13 feb with calved cows and all out 17th march. I would be a bit behind on new ferts and grasses but with a small bit of advice I am quite sure its viable

Greengrass1

Shares are going to be new quotas lads.
Glanbia wants all suppliers to have shares.
If you want to supply milk and don't have shares its up to the board if they want to take your milk or not.
1 share for every 250l they say.
But I don't know where these shares are going to cone from,and they will become dear when they do

dzer2

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Shares are going to be new quotas lads.
Glanbia wants all suppliers to have shares.
If you want to supply milk and don't have shares its up to the board if they want to take your milk or not.
1 share for every 250l they say.
But I don't know where these shares are going to cone from,and they will become dear when they do

have close to 10k shares not a problem

Sam Kade

simx wrote: »

farming on paper i could hold rougly 60 cows but with land type it would be a nightmare on a bad year, no bother last year but a 2012 and a disaster, is your land heavyish dzer2? i know from past posts you are somewhere in my locality, would land type be an issue with you too? im just very cautious would it be viable after 2015? even if i got 5 good years and had to throw my hat at it after that id still be happy, one neighbour going back at it next year and will be milking 60, he says hes going to keep all calves as all land not near yard, the only thing is he has to make money for himself and father so at 40-45 going by what hes going at i should be ok, i know theres loads of ifs and buts and i cant compare myself to my neighbour, noboby said its going to be a sucess, going into teagasc next week for a chat, anyone want to throw a modest example of cost to produce a litre of milk to be going by? would be greatly appreciated

Around 22 cent/litre for variable and fixed costs.

simx

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Shares are going to be new quotas lads.
Glanbia wants all suppliers to have shares.
If you want to supply milk and don't have shares its up to the board if they want to take your milk or not.
1 share for every 250l they say.
But I don't know where these shares are going to cone from,and they will become dear when they do

Have shares there should be ok if 250l to share

frazzledhome

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Shares are going to be new quotas lads.
Glanbia wants all suppliers to have shares.
If you want to supply milk and don't have shares its up to the board if they want to take your milk or not.
1 share for every 250l they say.
But I don't know where these shares are going to cone from,and they will become dear when they do

It will be 180 shares per 1000 litres

You do not need shares to supply milk. You will need them if any bonus such as 13th payment etc is to be claimed

Greengrass1

frazzledhome wrote: »

It will be 180 shares per 1000 litres

You do not need shares to supply milk. You will need them if any bonus such as 13th payment etc is to be claimed

Meeting we were at last month about the contracts Jim said 250l per share.
And that if you didn't have shares it was up to the board if they wanted your milk or not

Sam Kade

maxxuumman wrote: »

Wasn't there a guy on the IFJ donkey's years ago that put in a 30 unit Parlour for 60 cows. No cow yard, basically built Parlour on the cow passage. Had milking done in a matter of minutes.

Was that Meehan from clare? He used be on the Journal 3-4 times a year but no sign of him in years. His son was taking over the milking when he built that parlour if I remember correctly.

freedominacup

frazzledhome wrote: »

It will be 180 shares per 1000 litres

You do not need shares to supply milk. You will need them if any bonus such as 13th payment etc is to be claimed

So someone planing to increase production by 500k litres will have to spend north of 300,000 euro on shares. They have a face value of two euro but are trading st over three without any huge demand. I can't see why glanbia would do this as they have said plainly that no new shares are being issued as it would never get past dry shareholders whose shareholding would be massively diluted. Glanbia have nothing to gain so why would they increase costs on their suppliers?

I would actually support a rate of 18 per 1000 if they were at face value and the money was going to the co-op as it would increase milk supplier control of the co-op and help to ensure we make decisions in the long term interest of suppliers rather than some sort of cash out.

frazzledhome

freedominacup wrote: »

So someone planing to increase production by 500k litres will have to spend north of 300,000 euro on shares. They have a face value of two euro but are trading st over three without any huge demand. I can't see why glanbia would do this as they have said plainly that no new shares are being issued as it would never get past dry shareholders whose shareholding would be massively diluted. Glanbia have nothing to gain so why would they increase costs on their suppliers?

I would actually support a rate of 18 per 1000 if they were at face value and the money was going to the co-op as it would increase milk supplier control of the co-op and help to ensure we make decisions in the long term interest of suppliers rather than some sort of cash out.

+ 1

Clutch Pack

simx wrote: »

anyone want to throw a modest example of cost to produce a litre of milk to be going by? would be greatly appreciated

28 c/l here on heavy ground.
I'm slightly amused reading this thread and wondering where all this money is going to be made from dairying.Fifty cows here on heavy ground,single income with three secondary school going children with the first starting college in September.
We would not be making anywhere near the average industrial wage.
Unless you have a means of subsidising the cows with a good off farm income or large SFP (a figure i always look for but have yet to see mentioned in any beef to dairy conversion) then you are at nothing.
We are rapidly approaching the day where the new small farmer is someone milking 100 cows on a single labour unit.
Our discussion group is mentoring two new entrants to dairying both will be maxed at 60 cows,At 39 c/l both are just about solvent.
When milk price falls which it will (April) i fear we could have a lot of "what have i done" moments among new entrants.