Italy v England, Rome, Saturday 15th March. KO 12:30PM. Live on RTE2/BBC2

Losty Dublin

Lets face facts here; Italy haven't a hope of winning a game like this under a normal set of circumstances. However, this game is not what you'd call a normal context; if anything it's more like a scene from a rather profound yet absurd dream.

On the one hand England stand to win the 6 Nations, one many feel will be the first of many in the years to come. On the other hand, England may well end up fourth in the Six Nations if Wales run riot, Ireland capitulate in Paris and Italy do the unthinkable on this seasons Triple Crown winners. While most of England's destiny is now outside of their control, how possible is it for a famous first ever Azzurri victory against England?

Changes

This weekend, Stuart Lancaster has yet another strong hand to play with. Mako Vunipola is the only change to the team that beat Wales last Sunday, standing in at hooker for Dad to be, Joe Marler. The sole other change of note is the long awaited return of Tuilagi; with just 70 minute of football behind him since his 6 month lay off with a pectoral muscle tear he makes the bench in lieu of Alex Goode.

Italy have made three changes to last weeks whipping to Ireland, all in the pack. Inspirational Sergio Parisse returns to the back row in lieu of Paul Derbyshire Veteran tight head Castrogiavanni, an early casualty at the Aviva, is replaced by Treviso's Lorenzo Cittadini while Alberto De Marchi is replaced by Zebre's Matias Aguero at loose head.

My Outlook.

In spite of having a tiny player base, Italy have one hell of a knack in producing great forwards and especially scrummaging forwards. While the loss of Castrogiovanni is a big blow the fact is that they missed the superior player that is Parisse far more against Ireland; he will bring the control to both their breakdown and pick and drive game which was missing in Dublin. Add this to their toughness and they have more than enough to contain and cause England a lot of bother provided that they retain ball and not fall foul to sledging or Danny Care's snipes.

Lancaster knows that his team need only to win as the other games dictate that tries won't come into it. England just need to use their pack to keep the ball off the ground, even if it's held in the pack, as Italy are well able to slow down and retain the ball till the cows come home. Their backs are more capable that they have shown this year and, with two less than impressive defenders in May and Nowell on the England wings, fast ball could well result in large territorial gains for them which will upset England as they rely on being on the front foot all day.

The Italians cannot afford to lose the ball through the referee as Farrell is kicking like no other and he will pick off the 3 pointers at will. Failing that he will feed crash balls to his at times bland back line to win the game via attrition, as they did in 2013 and 2012. You can expect Tuilagi to come on with 15 to go to try hammer holes through the Italian's 5/8's line; maybe earlier if they get stuck and begin to panic.



Key players on the day will be Morgan, Farrell and Care. My guess is for an England win, somewhere along the lines of 31-17 with a late surge to widen the gap.

Teams

England: M Brown (Harlequins); J Nowell (Exeter), L Burrell (Northampton), B Twelvetrees (Gloucester), J May (Gloucester); O Farrell (Saracens), D Care (Harlequins); J Marler (Harlequins), D Hartley (Northampton), D Wilson (Bath), J Launchbury (Wasps), C Lawes (Northampton), T Wood (Northampton), C Robshaw (Harlequins, capt), B Morgan (Gloucester).

Replacements: T Youngs (Leicester), M Vunipola (Saracens), H Thomas (Sale), D Attwood (Bath), T Johnson (Exeter), L Dickson (Northampton), G Ford (Bath), M Tuilagi (Leicester).

Italy: L McLean (Treviso); A Esposito (Treviso), M Campagnaro (Treviso), G Garcia (Zebre), L Sarto (Zebre); L Orquera (Zebre), T Tebaldi (Ospreys); M Aguero (Zebre), L Ghiraldini (Treviso), L Cittadini (Treviso), Q Geldenhuys (Zebre), M Bortolami (Zebre), J Furno (Biarritz), R Barbieri (Treviso), S Parisse (Stade Francais).
Replacements: D Giazzon (Zebre), M Rizzo (Treviso), A De Marchi (Treviso), G Biagi (Zebre), P Derbyshire (Treviso), E Gori (Treviso), T Allan (Perpignan), A Masi (Wasps).

molloyjh

That would be an ideal result I think. A 20 point win won't come close to our points differential but it will put the French out of reach of a tournament win. If we don't win it then I want England to. They deserve it a hell of a lot more than the French, who in reality shouldn't be in the running still!

Larbre34

I'm liking the Poll. Straight out of the Crimean regional government

Option A) Join Russia

Option Vote for the Parliament to take the decision, and they will join Russia for you...


Oh yeah, England by 25 - close but no cigar....

Losty Dublin

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'm liking the Poll. Straight out of the Crimean regional government

Option A) Join Russia

Option Vote for the Parliament to take the decision, and they will join Russia for you...


Oh yeah, England by 25 - close but no cigar....

I went to set up a poll but I thought the dare to dream option was more fun

former legend

Mako Vunipola will start with Matt Mullan on the bench; Joe Marler is off having a kid.

Somewhere in Rome, Martin Castrogiovanni is rubbing his hands together.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

former legend wrote: »

Mako Vunipola will start with Matt Mullan on the bench; Joe Marler is off having a kid.

Somewhere in Rome, Martin Castrogiovanni is rubbing his hands together.

that could be massive, few scrum penalties could be the diff between a 30 and 50 point win

Podge_irl

former legend wrote: »

Somewhere in Rome, Martin Castrogiovanni is rubbing his hands together.

He's not playing is he?

Neil3030

former legend wrote: »

Mako Vunipola will start with Matt Mullan on the bench; Joe Marler is off having a kid.

Somewhere in Rome, Martin Castrogiovanni is rubbing his hands together.

Presumably to clear off residual ragu...

I actually fancy Italy to put up a pretty good showing tomorrow. Parisse and Zani back, home advantage, memories of the last round scalp against Ireland at home last year, the pissedoffedness of having played quite well so far without registering a victory.... certainly eying up the +23 handicap at the very least.

former legend

Podge_irl wrote: »

He's not playing is he?

Ha! Fair point.

Losty Dublin

former legend wrote: »

Ha! Fair point.

Pudsy33

FORZA ITALIA!

Buer

I never know whether Hook is trolling or just that ignorant. Who is Vinipolo? Apparently Italy have 6 tightheads who can destroy him. I wonder if George could name another prop outside of Castro.

Buer

Pope not much better. England have young guys like Brown and Burrell coming through apparently. I'm sure that would be news to guys who turn 29 and 27 this year respectively.

wp_rathead

Everybody now:

Fratelli d'Italia,
l'Italia s'è desta,
dell'elmo di Scipio
s'è cinta la testa.
Dov'è la Vittoria?
Le porga la chioma,
ché schiava di Roma
Iddio la creò.

Stringiamci a coorte,
siam pronti alla morte.
Siam pronti alla morte,
l'Italia chiamò.
Stringiamci a coorte,
siam pronti alla morte.
Siam pronti alla morte,
l'Italia chiamò!

thomond2006

Is the tenor singing a song from the movie Gladiator there? Sounds like it!

petebricquette

wprathead wrote: »

Everybody now:

Fratelli d'Italia,
l'Italia s'è desta,
dell'elmo di Scipio
s'è cinta la testa.
Dov'è la Vittoria?
Le porga la chioma,
ché schiava di Roma
Iddio la creò.

Stringiamci a coorte,
siam pronti alla morte.
Siam pronti alla morte,
l'Italia chiamò.
Stringiamci a coorte,
siam pronti alla morte.
Siam pronti alla morte,
l'Italia chiamò!

I usually just go with "Italia, ITALIA, laah laaah lahlaaaaah, Italia"

Buer

Former Italian winger is the tenor singing on player's entrance. Some lungs on him. The Italian Kev McLaughlin!

OldRio

Wow what a way for the Italian team to enter the pitch.
Classy

RuggieBear

big scrum italy

Buer

First line out claimed by Tom Wood. RTE: "Won by Launchbury"

Aaaand BBC.

thomond2006

That wasn't smart by Nowell, that was Brown's ball.

thomond2006

First two scrums have been all Italy.

RuggieBear

if italy can do that all game they have a small chance.

kevohmsford

Penalty to Italy. Great start from the Italians

RuggieBear

3-0 6mins

Buer

RuggieBear wrote: »

if italy can do that all game they have a small chance.

I don't think they will win but I reckon there won't be that much in it. I think the talk of England putting up a big score just because of the requirement of one is way off.

Kanrith

And then they mess up the restart...

ScrubsfanChris

C-mon ref, blow it up

RuggieBear

ffs italy keep calm

kevohmsford

3-3 now 11 mins. Italy making a few mistakes

Kanrith

Ah damn...

RuggieBear

brown scores.

kevohmsford

Mike Brown try for England 8-3

Jeasus I hate farrells face.

Fecking mike brown what a tournament he's had

wp_rathead

great pass by burrell

Stev_o

Brilliant try, Brown player of the 6N. Strange seeing England center's who can actually create space and pass.

its_phil

Cracking offload by Burrell and great finish by Brown. Brown is definitley the player of the tournament. Burrell is a revelation too.

Stev_o

Im very surprised with how much Burrell has grown in the England 13 shirt, saw him as just a bosh merchant at 12 for the Saints.

its_phil

I do think Italy are still in this though. They need to slow English ball down, but England are very effective recycling the ball.

Swiwi.

Well this is great. I thought the game started at 1

wp_rathead

i know it is legal, but hate that England tactic of kicking the ball when a ruck is about to form

Tox56

Eng have perfected the art of kicking ball out at ruck

Tox56

Bit of a disgrace Owens is running the line on the deciding 6N weekend

Stev_o

Does May do anything other then cutting back in?

RuggieBear

oh italy

Stev_o

Greedy had he passed would of been a try.

Gota finish that

Lightbulb Sun

Italians butchered the try there, should have passed inside.

Pudsy33

Why didnt Sarto pass!?

wp_rathead

Tox56 wrote: »

Bit of a disgrace Owens is running the line on the deciding 6N weekend

He would have beeen perfect for the France v Ireland game this evening

laugh

Oh Italy if only you a nice offloading game.