Beef post 2015

Farmer Pudsey

All the talk in farming has been related to dairying post 2015. Very few have looked at the implications to other sectors and to Beef production in particular. Over the last few weeks we have strayed into it in other threads.

The curse of beef farming over the last thirty years is that it profit margins were eroded by dairy farming limited by quota expanding into it and that we have access to no cheap byproducts. Post 2015 this will change as dairy farmers exit and simplify there operations and calf become a byproduct of there system. We see already the drop in calf prices and this will only continue post 2015 as the dairy cow herd expands.

However there are other changes that will impact. Sexed semen is being the one mainly talked about however it will be five years before beef calves hit the ground in commercial numbers because of it. However this will be the final nail in suckler beef production.

However there are other changes not talked about. Due to quality assurances bonus'es movement number will be restricted and the present four may be reduced to three. In the UK one supermarket want only two the birth farm and the rearing/finishing farm. This may not be an acceptable solution in Ireland and we will require three. Birth farm, rearing and finishing farms. This will eliminate the cattle dealer from the system He is already under pressure with four movements as he can only trade at one time in the Irish system for farmers to recieve QA. QA will also effect over 30 month cattle and lesser quality below O- grade.

Another issue is carcass weight. Over the last few months factory's/supermarkets have forced down thw maximum weight to below 400kgs with clear intensions to implement a weight limit of sub 380kgs ( maybe even 360 may emerge) If we look at NI, already a limit of 380kgs was in place for a while (not sure if it still is). This will impact hard on suckler progney, however it will also mean that beef cattle numbers will have to increase to supply the same amount of beef. Not sure of average bull/steer weight but it would be well in excess 360kgs average. IF this average carcass weight decreases by 30-40kgs it will mean a 20% increase in beef production numbers to supply same amount of beef. carcass weight will drop any way due to use of crossbred cows in the dairy industry.

Bull beef production is now gone for the UK market for the foreseeable future. This has eliminated the only profitable method of winter production in a non seasonal price market. At present the factory's/supermarkets can control supply, however if other options are open to beef farmers,contract rearing of heifers, fodder supply etc this will chande factory control. It may well see issue such as export of store cattle to the UK returning.

Then again is the light at the end of the tunnell an oncoming train.

bbam

You would expect that any much change in the market will finish suckler herds.. But remember many, many are already being supported via large SFP and will continue to be.. The stock loosing a bit more won't deter them as they are being supported anyway..

Sex'd semen will bring an interesting dynamic to beef, bring it on !!

Again, more lads moving into contract rearing has to be positive..

However.. I'm not that confident that the factory/supermarket control on prices will be broken.. the will to upset the status quo just isn't there !!

cute geoge

Beef will boom in Ireland if a lot of these cheap calves are exported if they are kept in the country the factories only get choosey to force down prices like this year . I cant see beef farmers guarented cheap calves year in year out , calf trade is like yoyo with the export price bringing up the base. There is not much leeway for Larry and co. to manepilate the market when supply is tight and thus our only hope is to either to export or euthuinise every jersey and Holstein out of this country

Round Bale

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

All the talk in farming has been related to dairying post 2015. Very few have looked at the implications to other sectors and to Beef production in particular. Over the last few weeks we have strayed into it in other threads.

The curse of beef farming over the last thirty years is that it profit margins were eroded by dairy farming limited by quota expanding into it and that we have access to no cheap byproducts. Post 2015 this will change as dairy farmers exit and simplify there operations and calf become a byproduct of there system. We see already the drop in calf prices and this will only continue post 2015 as the dairy cow herd expands.

However there are other changes that will impact. Sexed semen is being the one mainly talked about however it will be five years before beef calves hit the ground in commercial numbers because of it. However this will be the final nail in suckler beef production.

However there are other changes not talked about. Due to quality assurances bonus'es movement number will be restricted and the present four may be reduced to three. In the UK one supermarket want only two the birth farm and the rearing/finishing farm. This may not be an acceptable solution in Ireland and we will require three. Birth farm, rearing and finishing farms. This will eliminate the cattle dealer from the system He is already under pressure with four movements as he can only trade at one time in the Irish system for farmers to recieve QA. QA will also effect over 30 month cattle and lesser quality below O- grade.

Another issue is carcass weight. Over the last few months factory's/supermarkets have forced down thw maximum weight to below 400kgs with clear intensions to implement a weight limit of sub 380kgs ( maybe even 360 may emerge) If we look at NI, already a limit of 380kgs was in place for a while (not sure if it still is). This will impact hard on suckler progney, however it will also mean that beef cattle numbers will have to increase to supply the same amount of beef. Not sure of average bull/steer weight but it would be well in excess 360kgs average. IF this average carcass weight decreases by 30-40kgs it will mean a 20% increase in beef production numbers to supply same amount of beef. carcass weight will drop any way due to use of crossbred cows in the dairy industry.

Bull beef production is now gone for the UK market for the foreseeable future. This has eliminated the only profitable method of winter production in a non seasonal price market. At present the factory's/supermarkets can control supply, however if other options are open to beef farmers,contract rearing of heifers, fodder supply etc this will chande factory control. It may well see issue such as export of store cattle to the UK returning.

Then again is the light at the end of the tunnell an oncoming train.

Picking out the low butty continental X heifers for the bull this year:o
Crazy or what

reilig

produce what the factories want

Absolute Bull!

The factories don't want anything other than cheap cattle. When all of these people stop suckling and rearing dairy calves, dairy calves will become expensive and the factories will be looking for higher grading cattle. Factories will cut prices for the type of animals that are plentyful and pay ok money for what they really need.

Don't anybody kid themselves that they'll make a fortune on dairy beef - Larry and the boys are the only ones that will make money on that!

blue5000

Great opening post there Pudsey. There are swings and roundabouts, what will happen I think will be very similar to what happened in NZ when quotas started here in the mid 80's.


They still have suckler cows in NZ but they are on the worst land along with sheep. For most beef farmers here the future I reckon will be dependent on cheap calves from the dairy herd. Whatever age they will be slaughtered at remains to be seen, veal, bulls or steers. Whatever happens larry will still win (if he's still alive)

Better land will either be converted to dairying, arable or perhaps contract rearing. Here, change will be slower than happened in NZ because of subsidies, but don't forget subsidies were eliminated in NZ with dire consequences for a lot of farmers, dairy farmers included.

mf240

The problem with buying calves every year to finish is when The beef price is good the farmers will drive the price of calves up and ruin it on themselves.

When I was a young lad I used to have a black cow out of one of my dad's milkers.

When she calved I used to buy three more calves and rear them on her. Then after three months Id buy four more and put them on her. Then three months later Id buy two more.

That was ten calves a year on my little black cow. She was a pure pet and no bother train her to calves, we used to feed her very well but still she was paying her way.

coolshannagh28

I think Reilig has just about summed it up ,Larry and co will manipulate the market to their own ends totally unhindered by any regulation and beef farmers will scrabble around trying to provide what Pudsey indicates the market requires ,its a zero sum game and only one winner.

blue5000

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I think Reilig has just about summed it up ,Llarry and co will manipulate the market to their own ends totally unhindered by any regulation and beef farmers will scrabble around trying to provide what Pudsey indicates the market requires ,its a zero sum and only one winner.

Fixed that for you:cool:

Farmer Pudsey

I cannot see dairy calves getting expensive. However it is all relative. The reality is that at present with dairy herds expanding most dairy farmers are breeding to dairy bulls. this will change post 2015. It is expected that milk output double this will result in a 50% increase in cow numbers to about 1.5 million cows.

It may also mean that land base required by dairying will increase by 50%.This will be at the expense of tillage and beef. The natural replacement rate in a mature heard is about 15%. If sexed semen is a commercial reality in maybe 2018 this will mean that about 1.15 million beef breed calves will be hitting the ground post 2018. In that case calves will not be an expensive product.

Across Europe milk production will expand but not to the Irish extent. However excess calves there will mean that exports will be more or less level. At present there is about 1 million suckler cows in Ireland. This will drop right back. The total projected kill in Ireland is about 1.6 million cattle this year. 1.2 million will be prime cattle (steers, heifers and young bulls). This equates to near enough the production of calves post 2018. We will be short a few due to mortality etc but a million dairy bred beef calves would be just enough to keep the system going.

IMO as suckler will be virtually eliminated ( only product capable of being exported will be commercially viable or pedigree herds). This will just be enough to keep land base left for beef in production. Maybe we will see a return to multiple suckling off culled dairy cows along the west coast. Other than that it will be back to calf rearing like 40-50 years ago.

The biggest issue will be calf rearing. A lot of beef farmers work full time so rearing 20-200 beef calves may be an issue. This will leave the beef factory's below the magical 30K cattle/week to slaughter( this includes cull cows about 200k/year)

kevthegaff

why do lads not rear calves from winter milking herds and then finish them off grass at less than 24 months old, normaly better price from august-october??

Farmer Pudsey

kevthegaff wrote: »

why do lads not rear calves from winter milking herds and then finish them off grass at less than 24 months old, normaly better price from august-october??

calves tend to be from the more extreme holstein. Winter herds have higher replacement rates and these farmers often breed most of there cows to dairy straws as the later heifers can calf into a spring herd at 26-28 months of age.

Muckit

And what couch loving once part time suckler farmer has the get up and go to change over to bucket feeding calves??

I think the price of dog food will go down!!

farmingmad10

A good point. Everyone always talks about dairy post 2015 but never talk about beef sheep or tillage enterprises. The profit in beef is at an absolute all time low now. The suckler farmers are complaining that they aren't making money on weanlings less than €900 & the finisher is saying he isn't making money on them when sold in factory. Never mind dairy where is the profit in beef at the moment & sheep too? Teagasc profit monitors show that both enterprises on average make losses before receipt of their sfp. Surely that is not sustainable? Tillage too is a v volatile business & have had a few disastrous years in that majority of growers only barely covered costs.

Robson99

Muckit wrote: »

And what couch loving once part time suckler farmer has the get up and go to change over to bucket feeding calves??

I think the price of dog food will go down!!

I agree muckit. But I think what needs to change also is the grid increments

6cent does not reflect the grading based on the base price. It should be more like 9 cent per grade difference. I think if the suckler herds are falling then we will see this rate change.

Currently the difference between a U-3 and an O+3 animal is 24 cent. This will need to be at least 36cent if sucklers are to remain profitable

mf240

Muckit wrote: »

And what couch loving once part time suckler farmer has the get up and go to change over to bucket feeding calves??

I think the price of dog food will go down!!

If I was working full time I'd nearly prefer feeding bucket calves to calving sucklers.

farmingmad10

That is crazy ha poor type cattle like friesans are nearly leaving more money than u grade continental cattle. The men who breed top top quality stock are not being paid for it.

tomwaterford

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I cannot see dairy calves getting expensive. However it is all relative. The reality is that at present with dairy herds expanding most dairy farmers are breeding to dairy bulls. this will change post 2015. It is expected that milk output double this will result in a 50% increase in cow numbers to about 1.5 million cows.

It may also mean that land base required by dairying will increase by 50%.This will be at the expense of tillage and beef. The natural replacement rate in a mature heard is about 15%. If sexed semen is a commercial reality in maybe 2018 this will mean that about 1.15 million beef breed calves will be hitting the ground post 2018. In that case calves will not be an expensive product.

Across Europe milk production will expand but not to the Irish extent. However excess calves there will mean that exports will be more or less level. At present there is about 1 million suckler cows in Ireland. This will drop right back. The total projected kill in Ireland is about 1.6 million cattle this year. 1.2 million will be prime cattle (steers, heifers and young bulls). This equates to near enough the production of calves post 2018. We will be short a few due to mortality etc but a million dairy bred beef calves would be just enough to keep the system going.

IMO as suckler will be virtually eliminated ( only product capable of being exported will be commercially viable or pedigree herds). This will just be enough to keep land base left for beef in production. Maybe we will see a return to multiple suckling off culled dairy cows along the west coast. Other than that it will be back to calf rearing like 40-50 years ago.

The biggest issue will be calf rearing. A lot of beef farmers work full time so rearing 20-200 beef calves may be an issue. This will leave the beef factory's below the magical 30K cattle/week to slaughter( this includes cull cows about 200k/year)

this something I have often taught of getting into...even in a few years when dairy farmers begin to cull on cow performance, surly a averge enough cow would rear 3 calves
surly would be a lot easier than bucket rearing calves

also why do suckler men not try to rear 2nd calve under each cow,like try to get bull calf to go with bull calf and vice verso??

tanko

Muckit wrote: »

And what couch loving once part time suckler farmer has the get up and go to change over to bucket feeding calves??

I think the price of dog food will go down!!

I know there's plenty of work involved in bucket feeding calves but I don't know any part time suckler farmers who I would describe as couch potatoes.

We can all talk about different farming systems, price grids, carcass weights, sexed semen etc till were blue in the face but unless something is done to tackle the total control which the supermarkets and processors have built up and give farmers a fair share of the final value of beef animals I can't see fortunes of beef farmers improving no matter what type or weight of animal were producing.

J.O. Farmer

tomwaterford wrote: »

this something I have often taught of getting into...even in a few years when dairy farmers begin to cull on cow performance, surly a averge enough cow would rear 3 calves
surly would be a lot easier than bucket rearing calves

also why do suckler men not try to rear 2nd calve under each cow,like try to get bull calf to go with bull calf and vice verso??

Do you mean putting a second calf on your typical commercial continental cow. That's a lot of hardship and would she have the milk to feed 2. I know a cull dairy cow would do it but I don't think the average suckler would.
Also the price of a continental calf is nearly the price of a weanling and even angus calves can be pricey so that leaves dairy bred bulls which aren't worth much as weanlings anyway.

tomwaterford

J.O. Farmer wrote: »

Do you mean putting a second calf on your typical commercial continental cow. That's a lot of hardship and would she have the milk to feed 2. I know a cull dairy cow would do it but I don't think the average suckler would.
Also the price of a continental calf is nearly the price of a weanling and even angus calves can be pricey so that leaves dairy bred bulls which aren't worth much as weanlings anyway.

I just wondered tbh...it would seem a less looked at path/discounted path to increase profits....surly increasing calves reared to cow to even..1 in 3 cows rearing a second calf would equal a 15 cow herd rearing 20 calves (assuming all adult cows rear calves)

you could even rear the dairy bred heifer angus type calves??....with a view to replacements....even have half your herd with this type cow rearing a 2nd calf would leave you with 33% extra calves to sell as weanlings...surly cow costs would be roughly the same??

I just be wondering...don't have any cows meself TBH...and see loads of neighbour who are stuck with dairy bred bull calves after fattening them

freedominacup

Robson99 wrote: »

I agree muckit. But I think what needs to change also is the grid increments

6cent does not reflect the grading based on the base price. It should be more like 9 cent per grade difference. I think if the suckler herds are falling then we will see this rate change.

Currently the difference between a U-3 and an O+3 animal is 24 cent. This will need to be at least 36cent if sucklers are to remain profitable

24 cent or 36 cent more than what? I assume 24/36 cent above zero would be damn all good anf by the same token if ho bulls were getting a fiver per kg you'd be fairly unconcerned about the increments as the margins should be much improved.

Farmer Pudsey

Double suckling on present suckler cows is not an option for two reasons. Most cows have only enough milk for one calf some do not have even that and then there is the temprement of the cow. On the other hand cull dairy cows would be easy enough to train 2-3 calves onto. Again 20+ years ago this was quit common. The advent of suckler cow premia, which excluded these cows from payment ended multiple suckling. Why put a second calf under a Friesian cow when you recieved the price of a virtual calf from the suckler premia.

Most here forget that prior to milk quota beef production was quite profitable. If milk remains profitable and there is no reason that it will not remain so. Then the pressure on land will reduce beef volumes substancially. This may not just be an Irish phenomon. Looking at the USA at present Beef prices are nearly the same as Ireland. This is a good omen if there hormone produced beef is on an upward trend then it will leave less presssure on prices across Europe.

I think too many fail to understand the change in dynamics that the extra dairy production will bring to bear. Looking at present dairy farmers are selling calves even though many are over quota as they making a bit of money on milk. Will a dairy farmers not continue to do this post 2015 and post 2018 with beef bred calves.

Too many fail to relise that sutle movements can change profitability. A cheap calf, (maybe 100 euro cheaper than at present) and a little less beef around* due to lower weights and numbers) less farmers and production area will mean less competition. We are in a price retrenchment at present however these thing will not last forever, how long again before oil and grain prices increase.

Farmer Pudsey

Robson99 wrote: »

I agree muckit. But I think what needs to change also is the grid increments

6cent does not reflect the grading based on the base price. It should be more like 9 cent per grade difference. I think if the suckler herds are falling then we will see this rate change.

Currently the difference between a U-3 and an O+3 animal is 24 cent. This will need to be at least 36cent if sucklers are to remain profitable

An O+3 animal killing at 360kgs is to British supermarket spec, a U-3 kiling maybe 380+kgs is not to British Supermarket, it will either be sold onto the lower priced continental market or minced for Burgerking or McDonalds

bbam

tomwaterford wrote: »

I just wondered tbh...it would seem a less looked at path/discounted path to increase profits....surly increasing calves reared to cow to even..1 in 3 cows rearing a second calf would equal a 15 cow herd rearing 20 calves (assuming all adult cows rear calves)

you could even rear the dairy bred heifer angus type calves??....with a view to replacements....even have half your herd with this type cow rearing a 2nd calf would leave you with 33% extra calves to sell as weanlings...surly cow costs would be roughly the same??

I just be wondering...don't have any cows meself TBH...and see loads of neighbour who are stuck with dairy bred bull calves after fattening them

Chap near us rears dairy calves on 2 cull dairy cows.
Rears six to eight calves per cow per year. 12 weeks on the cow and the wean and introduce another set of calves.
So his two cows rear maybe 16 calves for the year.

Now I know his son well and the son says it's just pure hardship. And to be honest our own bucket reared sucks would be every bit as good I not better in the mart. So why bother with the hastle.


We spent a few years double suckling calves onto suckler cows here at home. Again it was pure hardship getting calves onto cows, and cows to stand. Just when you think you have them all settled the cow will turn on the calf again.

Crossakiel

Is this the end for certain types of beef cattle? http://www.agriland.ie/news/380kg-carcass-limit-end-continental-sucklers-icsa/

tanko

Crossakiel wrote: »

Is this the end for certain types of beef cattle? http://www.agriland.ie/news/380kg-carcass-limit-end-continental-sucklers-icsa/

It's good to see someone actually speak the truth for a change and say that "all the talk about the importance of the irish suckler herd is "just waffle".

Justin McCarthy wrote an article in last weeks journal called "Rural Ireland needs viable suckler herd" which is full of the usual lazy cliches and bull crap about the irish suckler herd. He never mentions the role of beef processors or supermarkets in the irish beef industry.

Sean Coughlan wrote a very good article which exposes the sham which is the use of "labelling issues" to restrict the movement of irish cattle.

Timmaay

What if we do hit the 2020 50% increase in Dairying? In my view that's not a limit either, every chance we could keep on expanding, if dairying remains the most profitable system by the degree that it is now. In the Leinster area, alot of this expansion will be by the conversion of tillage, however the 2020 harvest report sees scope for a 10% increase in tillage also. It really doesn't spell a positive outlook for other sectors at all. I personally can see replacement dairy heifers getting considerably more expensive, the only reason an animal capable of generating 2-3k in milk sales per year is only worth say 1200quid now is because of quotas. The dairyfarmer will have to accept that he will need to pay 2k or more to have a heifer brought into the system, this in term would mean a better margin for contract rearers.

rancher

tanko wrote: »

It's good to see someone actually speak the truth for a change and say that "all the talk about the importance of the irish suckler herd is "just waffle".

Justin McCarthy wrote an article in last weeks journal called "Rural Ireland needs viable suckler herd" which is full of the usual lazy cliches and bull crap about the irish suckler herd. He never mentions the role of beef processors or supermarkets in the irish beef industry.

Sean Coughlan wrote a very good article which exposes the sham which is the use of "labelling issues" to restrict the movement of irish cattle.

I'd guess that Justin wrote that to convince the Government to up the cow subsidy, a lot of farms need suckling to be a viable option, because of land quality ..... not suited to dairying or tillage, we need a good cow sub.
Agriland don't have all the answers either, I used to have sucklers here, charolais and simmenthals. sold the heifers at 360kg dw at 20mths and steers at up to 400kg at 22mths, so they are able to meet the market spec

Mad4simmental

Crossakiel wrote: »

Is this the end for certain types of beef cattle? http://www.agriland.ie/news/380kg-carcass-limit-end-continental-sucklers-icsa/

That's a very interesting read.

Mad4simmental

Their are allot of average to poor suckler stock about in sales and wenling sales. I don't know how sum of these were ever kept around a place. Sum lads naby don't see it or don't give a dam I don't know. It cost way to much to have a bad one.

I do think if this stays going like it is, it will wipe out all of these animals, as they have little or no advantage over half descent beef breeds out off dairy stock.

I do think (and hope) that for the very very good stock, e u grade wenling our exporter mate and a few more may be able to give us a good price and keep them going with less supply and more demand. The lads getting out mostly are going to dairy or contract raring or putting the boots up and renting.

To be honist I would be nervous if I was a dairy man. Huge bills with higher rent more animals and a huge increase in the volume of milk produced in Ireland. This May wipe out allot of average to poor dairy men to. The dairy man that may have got away with doing the minimum the last few years is going to have to be at the top of his game to compete in this market that will take no prisoners in a few years.

We may be seeing the death of the family farm in Ireland, and that would be a shame.

That's just my two cents worth.

reilig

rancher wrote: »

I'd guess that Justin wrote that to convince the Government to up the cow subsidy, a lot of farms need suckling to be a viable option, because of land quality ..... not suited to dairying or tillage, we need a good cow sub.
Agriland don't have all the answers either, I used to have sucklers here, charolais and simmenthals. sold the heifers at 360kg dw at 20mths and steers at up to 400kg at 22mths, so they are able to meet the market spec

Wise words Rancher!

At our last BTAP we had some speakers talking about what the factories want. The consensus seems to be that dairy calves won't satisfy the factories either.

The speakers made the point that continental heifers and steers will still be the animal of choice.

Steers 600 to 650 kg live and heifers just under that.

Suckled animals will be preferred for grading purposes and to ensure proper fat cover.

Animals under 22 months will be preferred. The day of the 36 month 900kg bullock is over and on the other side dairy calves under 22 months @ 650kg are rare.

The opinion was that quality suckled animals will be in demand as they will be the ones that will be able to be finished at the correct age, correct weight and correct grade with fat cover.

We had a factory speaker - not a teagasc speaker.

Fact is that the media loves hype, and some people thrive on making people worry. The papers and agriland published assumptions and only parts of the story in the hope of sensational headlines.

Look at the panic already in the posts on this page after the agriland article was published only a few hours ago. Calm down lads and keep your heads!

Crossakiel

Take you point about the media hyping things up, but as a beef finisher it is difficult to decide what to do next.

If you are trying to compete at a mart for top end stores you are looking at paying north of €1,100 for a good store animal. By the time you get the animal to 350 kgs unless the beef price rises there is no return.

The second option is to go with a lesser animal, but once again it is impossible to finish the animal under age and still make a margin.

maxxuumman

Just a question, know very little about beef finishing. There are a couple of chaps around here that buy either Fr weanlings or Fr stores and let them roam the place. They never ( rarely) see a bag of meal and are loaded up at 36 months finished or not. No sheds, no machinery, low cost, but massive acreage. What does this announcement mean for them.

Panch18

reilig wrote: »

Wise words Rancher!

At our last BTAP we had some speakers talking about what the factories want. The consensus seems to be that dairy calves won't satisfy the factories either.

The speakers made the point that continental heifers and steers will still be the animal of choice.

Steers 600 to 650 kg live and heifers just under that.

Suckled animals will be preferred for grading purposes and to ensure proper fat cover.

Animals under 22 months will be preferred. The day of the 36 month 900kg bullock is over and on the other side dairy calves under 22 months @ 650kg are rare.

The opinion was that quality suckled animals will be in demand as they will be the ones that will be able to be finished at the correct age, correct weight and correct grade with fat cover.

We had a factory speaker - not a teagasc speaker.

Fact is that the media loves hype, and some people thrive on making people worry. The papers and agriland published assumptions and only parts of the story in the hope of sensational headlines.

Look at the panic already in the posts on this page after the agriland article was published only a few hours ago. Calm down lads and keep your heads!

Where did the 22 months business come from for being preferred?? Have never heard of that before

Panch18

maxxuumman wrote: »

Just a question, know very little about beef finishing. There are a couple of chaps around here that buy either Fr weanlings or Fr stores and let them roam the place. They never ( rarely) see a bag of meal and are loaded up at 36 months finished or not. No sheds, no machinery, low cost, but massive acreage. What does this announcement mean for them.

Absolutely nothing

They'll still make as much money as they used to and they'll still make as much money as the guy breaking his back to get the meal into his cattle as fast as he can - maybe more than him

The difference between being an intensive beef man and an extensive beef man isn't worth the bother

We've been finishing cattle for 40 years now I'd say and over that 40 years FR's have made as much profit for us as any other breed - in fact some years a lot more.

Lads love getting carried away about how a bullock looks in the field or in the shed e.g. some lads only buying Angus because they look nice - ditto for continentals. That's nuts IMO, it doesn't matter what the breed is as long as he makes money for you

mf240

Killed bullocks lately Angus and friesan 22 to 24 months 270 to 350 kgs all o's

Didn't get the qa on some o- all out of my dairy cows.

Not to bad as their mothers work full time so cover their own costs.

A lot better than a 400 kg charlie that has to carry the full cost of a big hungry unemployed suckler.

Greengrass1

mf240 wrote: »

Killed bullocks lately Angus and friesan 22 to 24 months 270 to 350 kgs all o's

Didn't get the qa on some o- all out of my dairy cows.

Not to bad as their mothers work full time so cover their own costs.

A lot better than a 400 kg charlie that has to carry the full cost of a big hungry unemployed suckler.

Ye my father always maintained that there a bank account that you could use to buy your fert with in the spring.
But I'm not prepared to rent land for bullocks and I'd prefer look at a dairy cow or a heifer in a field compared to a bullock

leg wax

just after unloading a double decker of bulls for the boat on friday, a lot of aa and wh , with some lims thru it as well, 2 more loads coming tomorrow , and another boat is on its way for next week ,so lets keep them going:D:p;)

Farmer Pudsey

Crossakiel wrote: »

Is this the end for certain types of beef cattle? http://www.agriland.ie/news/380kg-carcass-limit-end-continental-sucklers-icsa/

Agriland and Justin are a few months behind the curve. A dog with a mallet up his you know what know that the sums on a suckler fails to add up if stock is limited to below 400 not to mind 360kgsDW. I saw a horrendus figure that the figure for calves from sucklers is 85/100 reach maturity. :eek:

The best farmers manage about 95/100. This gives a return of 1500/cow at a price of 4.3/kg to carry a cow, a calf and a finishing animal. Maybe there is a market for specialist producers breeding for the export market. However I wouldn't hold my breath. The sums just do not add up.

reilig wrote: »

Wise words Rancher!

At our last BTAP we had some speakers talking about what the factories want. The consensus seems to be that dairy calves won't satisfy the factories either.

The speakers made the point that continental heifers and steers will still be the animal of choice.

Steers 600 to 650 kg live and heifers just under that.

Suckled animals will be preferred for grading purposes and to ensure proper fat cover.

Animals under 22 months will be preferred. The day of the 36 month 900kg bullock is over and on the other side dairy calves under 22 months @ 650kg are rare.

The opinion was that quality suckled animals will be in demand as they will be the ones that will be able to be finished at the correct age, correct weight and correct grade with fat cover.

We had a factory speaker - not a teagasc speaker.

Fact is that the media loves hype, and some people thrive on making people worry. The papers and agriland published assumptions and only parts of the story in the hope of sensational headlines.

Look at the panic already in the posts on this page after the agriland article was published only a few hours ago. Calm down lads and keep your heads!

Yes factory's want suckler bred cattle at 360kgs dw, the problem is it profitable to produce same. I think the factory's, the journal and the government know that within five year sexed semen may change the game. If dairy farmers can get away with breeding less than 20% of there cows to dairy bulls and mop the rest up to WH, LM and AA this will leave about 1.2 million calves on the ground with 50% beef breeding. Dairy farmers with mature cows may well move to slightly better type of bulls.

From a finishing point of view the last 100 days are loaded with expense. When prices were high, and weight not an issue then yes for about the first time ever money could be made from sucklers with out a subsidy. However most lads consider that it costs about 500/cow to keep them. If you want a 200 euro margin at weaning then calves have to average 750 (to allow for a 95% survival rate) across all calves to allow for mart fees and transport.

When you go to a mart in October/November even when prices were strong I failed to see that.

Panch18

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

From a finishing point of view the last 100 days are loaded with expense. When prices were high, and weight not an issue then yes for about the first time ever money could be made from sucklers with out a subsidy. However most lads consider that it costs about 500/cow to keep them. If you want a 200 euro margin at weaning then calves have to average 750 (to allow for a 95% survival rate) across all calves to allow for mart fees and transport.

When you go to a mart in October/November even when prices were strong I failed to see that.

And at what stocking rate Pudsey? a cow to the hectacre for a lot of them, very few stocked tighter than 1.5 acres to the cow I reckon

so that breaks down to what - 150 an acre for the good lads and a fair bit less if sparsely stocked

Any kind of beef system has to give better returns than that surely. - not saying other systems are much better but you'd want to be breaking the 200 an acre mark handy enough every year

And that doesn't take into account that sucklers are surely the most labour intensive form of beef

reilig

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Agriland and Justin are a few months behind the curve. A dog with a mallet up his you know what know that the sums on a suckler fails to add up if stock is limited to below 400 not to mind 360kgsDW. I saw a horrendus figure that the figure for calves from sucklers is 85/100 reach maturity. :eek:

The best farmers manage about 95/100. This gives a return of 1500/cow at a price of 4.3/kg to carry a cow, a calf and a finishing animal. Maybe there is a market for specialist producers breeding for the export market. However I wouldn't hold my breath. The sums just do not add up.



Yes factory's want suckler bred cattle at 360kgs dw, the problem is it profitable to produce same. I think the factory's, the journal and the government know that within five year sexed semen may change the game. If dairy farmers can get away with breeding less than 20% of there cows to dairy bulls and mop the rest up to WH, LM and AA this will leave about 1.2 million calves on the ground with 50% beef breeding. Dairy farmers with mature cows may well move to slightly better type of bulls.

From a finishing point of view the last 100 days are loaded with expense. When prices were high, and weight not an issue then yes for about the first time ever money could be made from sucklers with out a subsidy. However most lads consider that it costs about 500/cow to keep them. If you want a 200 euro margin at weaning then calves have to average 750 (to allow for a 95% survival rate) across all calves to allow for mart fees and transport.

When you go to a mart in October/November even when prices were strong I failed to see that.

The factory speaker was adamant that you are wrong - even went on to say that the information above which is being pedaled by some of the media is just hype and sensationalism.

He gave us figures which showed that based on the kill for the last 10 years 60% to 75% of dairy bred cattle (Bucket fed calves) were not finished under 30 months. On good years when a lot of the FR were exported and the continentals kept, the figures went as low as 60% but in years where export was low they went up to 75%. His belief is that a large % of dairy bred cattle won't meet the weight to age criteria at slaughter that the factories are demanding. This could be improved by better feeding - but that quickly puts up cost. Which means that there will always be a market which will pay more for quality suckler cattle than dairy bred counterparts.

His message was that factories want to see suckler farmers producing quality animals that could be finished at a young age. He expressed the opinion that the day of the big 36 month 900kg CH bullock is over - the future for animals is a maximum of 3 movements, Board Bia approved, quality young animals.

Round Bale

reilig wrote: »

The factory speaker was adamant that you are wrong - even went on to say that the information above which is being pedaled by some of the media is just hype and sensationalism.

He gave us figures which showed that based on the kill for the last 10 years 60% to 75% of dairy bred cattle (Bucket fed calves) were not finished under 30 months. On good years when a lot of the FR were exported and the continentals kept, the figures went as low as 60% but in years where export was low they went up to 75%. His belief is that a large % of dairy bred cattle won't meet the weight to age criteria at slaughter that the factories are demanding. This could be improved by better feeding - but that quickly puts up cost. Which means that there will always be a market which will pay more for quality suckler cattle than dairy bred counterparts.

His message was that factories want to see suckler farmers producing quality animals that could be finished at a young age. He expressed the opinion that the day of the big 36 month 900kg CH bullock is over - the future for animals is a maximum of 3 movements, Board Bia approved, quality young animals.

The question is, what kind (breed) of suckler animal, is suitable to finish at a young age, with appropriate finish?
Do we need a scrappage scheme for all the lim and chaar cows in the country?
What about the AI beef bulls??? Best lims / chars ............... fit for the new purpose????

You know, I sat in Ennis mart a few years ago and listened to the same factory reps, promote and encourage farmers down the 16 month bull route? Where are those weasle words now???

Bet your bottom dollar, the words you heard at your meeting, are quite possible no less weasle words, spoken a few years ago by factory reps up and down the country!
Did anybody challenge this guys integrity and beliveability at your meeting?

freedominacup

Round Bale wrote: »

The question is, what kind (breed) of suckler animal, is suitable to finish at a young age, with appropriate finish?
Do we need a scrappage scheme for all the lim and chaar cows in the country?
What about the AI beef bulls??? Best lims / chars ............... fit for the new purpose????

You know, I sat in Ennis mart a few years ago and listened to the same factory reps, promote and encourage farmers down the 16 month bull route? Where are those weasle words now???

Bet your bottom dollar, the words you heard at your meeting, are quite possible no less weasle words, spoken a few years ago by factory reps up and down the country!
Did anybody challenge this guys integrity and beliveability at your meeting?

Those specs will last until the first Monday they have enough cattle hitting them and they know that there is a good supply of them in the pipeline or until the second Monday they are facing a kill under 27000 hd. Then they will either cut the sh1t out of the price or pay whatever they have to for any cattle they can get to fill their contract depending on which scenario they are facing. They have no word.

mf240

And paddy farmer like the proverbial battered housewife never learns. He even blames himself.

reilig

Round Bale wrote: »

The question is, what kind (breed) of suckler animal, is suitable to finish at a young age, with appropriate finish?
Do we need a scrappage scheme for all the lim and chaar cows in the country?
What about the AI beef bulls??? Best lims / chars ............... fit for the new purpose????

You know, I sat in Ennis mart a few years ago and listened to the same factory reps, promote and encourage farmers down the 16 month bull route? Where are those weasle words now???

Bet your bottom dollar, the words you heard at your meeting, are quite possible no less weasle words, spoken a few years ago by factory reps up and down the country!
Did anybody challenge this guys integrity and beliveability at your meeting?

Well from our point of view, the best breeding cows always had the best calves for us and we always got the best prices for them. Why would we change this? Scrap cows that feed their calves well? Scrap bulls that breed the best calves?? It's like a frenzied panic!! Surely the better the quality the animal, the younger you will be able to finish him, the less it will cost to finish him and the more profit you will have?

A lot of people challenged his integrity and believability. A lot of people brought up the same information as we are lead to believe on this forum - that suckler farming will be no more when the dairy expansion happens! The above was his reply.

Demands change, people change, we cannot do a whole lot about that. But a lot of this crap is being driven by the media who seem to come on to forums like this to get their stories and they take the sensational stories without doing enough research on them and publish them just to scare farmers. Factories won't confirm or deny anything to the media because they love seeing farmers scared ****less and love it when they panic sell.

Farmer Pudsey

The question is what is the most profitable to produce. Most cattle that gain weight fast need to go to heavy weights to get into correct fat score. The other question what return do you need on a suckler animal to make a profit. If a fiarmer pays 750 euro for a 300kg weanling can he carry it to a DW of 360kgs and make a profit.

Yes the factory's want suckler bred cattle the question is if weight limits of 380kgs come in is it profitable to produce such cattle. The issue with dairy bred cattle going over 30 months is mainly due to too many farmers not getting cattle to gain weight all year long. I have seen this happen with suckler bred cattle as well.

At present with the absence of bulls factory's will have an issue next year on with access to finished cattle over the winter. We all know it is unprofitable at present prices to feed Fresian steers to finish at 22-24 months of age. Factory's want suckler bred cattle to fill this gap either as 22-26 month steers or under 16 months bulls.

However in 3-5 years as sexed semen becomes a proven technology and as expansion in dairy slackens/ends, dairy farmres will only need to breed less than 20% of cows to dairy bred sires. After that a stock bull( the majority of which will be HE, AA and LM) will help produce a cheap byproduct for beef production.

There may be a market for good quality weanlings for the export market, but hard to see a suckler cow being being able to survive on an o/p of 1500 euro for the Irish beef factory's. For that matter the factorys may well get the 30 month age limit lifted and this would allow dairy bred cattle to make the specs easy. Tesco's is supposed to be open to the idea of raiszing the age limit. However they are still dead set against bulls.

However if sexed semen is a proven technology this will again change the goalposts as 1.2 million LM AA and HE cattle would make it easier to increase the sub 30 months kill.

Remember if you go into a mart there are still lads buying elephants, however will they make money from them

Round Bale

reilig wrote: »

Well from our point of view, the best breeding cows always had the best calves for us and we always got the best prices for them. Why would we change this? Scrap cows that feed their calves well? Scrap bulls that breed the best calves?? It's like a frenzied panic!! Surely the better the quality the animal, the younger you will be able to finish him, the less it will cost to finish him and the more profit you will have?

A lot of people challenged his integrity and believability. A lot of people brought up the same information as we are lead to believe on this forum - that suckler farming will be no more when the dairy expansion happens! The above was his reply.

Demands change, people change, we cannot do a whole lot about that. But a lot of this crap is being driven by the media who seem to come on to forums like this to get their stories and they take the sensational stories without doing enough research on them and publish them just to scare farmers. Factories won't confirm or deny anything to the media because they love seeing farmers scared ****less and love it when they panic sell.

But did not the best continental weanlings, go on the boat, or get finished as bulls, or get finished at big weights?
How do you see your good lim / char weanling getting finished within the new spec, and leave profit fot you and the finisher at current and probable future beef price?

reilig

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Remember if you go into a mart there are still lads buying elephants, however will they make money from them

I don't know what marts you are going to, but I've been to 10 different marts in the west and north west over the last 3 weeks and the best description of how the elephants are being gotten rid of is "smash and grab". 24 month unfinished animals that will probably need another 8 month's feeding are struggling to make €2 per kg while quality young (12 month old) bullocks are making €3 to €4 per kg.

The message is out there - Nobody wants the Elephants because it's impossible to make money from them. Even today's indo is telling us about the price cuts to these elephants in the last week. A good quality suckled 12 month old Ch or LIM or BB or AA that is squeezed and weighs 250 KG to 400kg is what farmers are buying for finishing because it is realistic to be able to get them to 650kg within 12 months.

reilig

Round Bale wrote: »

But did not the best continental weanlings, go on the boat, or get finished as bulls, or get finished at big weights?
How do you see your good lim / char weanling getting finished within the new spec, and leave profit fot you and the finisher at current and probable future beef price?

Our BB's went on the boat. Our CH were squeezed and we kept them over the winter. They were sold 2 weeks ago. All bought by farmers and all in excess of €3 per Kg. How hard will it be for a farmer to put 300kg onto a good quality CH or a LIM bullock over the next 12 months to have him ready for slaughter?

If a farmer buys a 350kg bullock from me at €1000 and feeds him for 12 months. puts him to 650kg, kills out at 390kg and he gets €3.70 per kg in the factory for him. Then he has €443 for him for keeping him for 12 months. After me keeping a cow to raise the calf that costs me over €600 per year, then surely the finisher has a better opportunity to make a profit out of the €443??? Or do you believe that the finisher deserves more profit than the suckler farmer?

At €4 per kg where beef needs to be, then the finisher stands to make a fairly good profit in a relatively short period of time - certainly more profit than he stands to make by buying a cheaper and poorer quality animal and feeding it over a 24 month period until it is finished at 36 months!

Crossakiel

reilig wrote: »

I don't know what marts you are going to, but I've been to 10 different marts in the west and north west over the last 3 weeks and the best description of how the elephants are being gotten rid of is "smash and grab". 24 month unfinished animals that will probably need another 8 month's feeding are struggling to make €2 per kg while quality young (12 month old) bullocks are making €3 to €4 per kg.

The message is out there - Nobody wants the Elephants because it's impossible to make money from them. Even today's indo is telling us about the price cuts to these elephants in the last week. A good quality suckled 12 month old Ch or LIM or BB or AA that is squeezed and weighs 250 KG to 400kg is what farmers are buying for finishing because it is realistic to be able to get them to 650kg within 12 months.

Based on your figures above there is no money to be made as a finisher.

Buy cost (live weight) 300 kgs @ €4 per kg = €1,200

Sell price 380 kgs (new spec) @ €4 per kg = €1,520

Margin €320

The above assumes that the price of beef doesn't fall.

i cant see even top quality finishers making a margin once feed, transport, commission, levies etc etc etc are taken out.