Wales vs France, Fri 21 Feb 8pm, BBC/RTE

thomond2006

Wales:
15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 George North, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Delon Liam Williams, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Rhys Webb,
8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (capt), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Gethin Jenkins.

Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Paul James, 18 Rhodri Jones, 19 Jake Ball, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Mike Phillips, 22 Dan Biggar, 23 James Hook.

France:
15 Brice Dulin, 14 Yoann Huget, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Hugo Bonneval, 10 Jules Plisson, 9 Jean-Marc Doussain,
8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Wenceslas Lauret, 6 Yannick Nyanga, 5 Yoann Maestri 4 Pascal Papé (c), 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Dimitri Szarzewski, 1 Thomas Domingo

Replacements: 16 Brice Mach, 17 Yannick Forestier, 18 Vincent Debaty , 19 Sebastien Vahaamahina, 20 Damien Chouly, 21 Maxime Machenaud, 22 Rémi Talès, 23 Gael Fickou.

The murmured selection call for Wales has happened: Mike Phillips has been dropped to the bench in favour of Ospreys' Rhys Webb. With Davies and Scott Williams injured George North is moved to 13 with a really nice and fair player selected on the left wing.

For France Wenceslas Lauret is a straight swap for Bernard Le Roux who suffered a concussion against Italy. Szarzewski starts at hooker after Benjamin Kayser picked up a knee injury playing for Clermont. Remi Tales is back from injury and is on the bench ahead of Francois Trinh-Duc.

Prediction: This is very difficult to call as both sides are not playing at their very best. Wales are looking to bounce back after a humbling defeat to Ireland while France haven't hit the high notes following a late winner against England and a largely lethargic performance against Italy. Webb's selection will speed up Wales attack and George North at centre may have opportunities to get outside Mathieu Basteraud. While both players are monsters North offers significantly more running ability than Basteraud who can be a plodder. From an Ireland perspective it is better if Wales win this in order to derail France's Grand Slam hopes early. Wales by a whisker.

Not that I want that to happen really, I've money on Ireland and France to win the championship!

.ak

If we beat England I would love for Paris to be the GS decider. So go France!

ScissorPaperRock

Mad to see Phillips benched and Tipuric still on the bench.

Would love Wales to take this one, just to leave Ireland as the only team with the chance of a GS.

thomond2006

I forgot to mention: Debaty is back on the bench so it will be fun to watch when he comes on! Hopefully he'll have a few runs down the channel of a certain winger...

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

the clash of those two giants in midfield will be something else.

Orlaw3136

Jebus. How can Warren Gatland pick that backrow again. On his showing against Ireland you would have to conclude that Dan Lydiate is just not fit - never mind match fit I mean he's not conditioned to a basically acceptable level. Again on his showing against Ireland Warburton is not firing at all - this could actually be affected by him lacking an effective partner, but the logic of leaving Lydiate on that 15 with him is just...not present.

Similar comments could be made about 1 & 3. They're manifestly not fit for purpose if the Ireland game was a fair measure of them.

If Fofana gets decent ball I think he will dance around Roberts & North all day. Nyanga is the best 80 minute forward on the park. I can't see how the French props will not prosper in the scrum. The next most effective forward by a mile is Picamoles.

If you did the exercise of picking a joint team from the starting 15 you'd be left with a Welshman at 15, one wing (Cuthbert) and one Centre (Roberts), with a possible case to be made for AWJ. Tipuric is the standout on the replacements but Gatland seems to be refusing to bring him on when he can still make a difference.

Charteris adds a lot back into the Welsh set-piece and restart but to my mind if Wales can't dominate possession (like maybe 80% or something extreme) I think they'll be hosed.

Even with home advantage I'm calling it 25 - 12 in favour of France.

sydthebeat

France

very hard to call this one, but maybe the alterations in the back line will suit France more. North is an absolutely deadly winger and id fancy him against huget all day. Thats also a very destructive tight five for france against a welsh pack that havent really ignited yet.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

I don't think it was a case of Lydiate being unfit, just that he's a seriously one dimensional player

ssaye2

France are +3

sydthebeat

France

ssaye2 wrote: »

France are +3

very hard to predict what a travelling france are going to be like though

norrie rugger

Come on the draw

rrpc

France

Orlaw3136 wrote: »

Jebus. How can Warren Gatland pick that backrow again. On his showing against Ireland you would have to conclude that Dan Lydiate is just not fit - never mind match fit I mean he's not conditioned to a basically acceptable level. Again on his showing against Ireland Warburton is not firing at all - this could actually be affected by him lacking an effective partner, but the logic of leaving Lydiate on that 15 with him is just...not present.

Warburton was only back for the Ireland match, you'd have to assume that the intervening two weeks have sharpened him up as well as Lydiate. It's still a Lions back row, it can still cause problems for the French.

If Fofana gets decent ball I think he will dance around Roberts & North all day. Nyanga is the best 80 minute forward on the park. I can't see how the French props will not prosper in the scrum. The next most effective forward by a mile is Picamoles.

The thing is France don't seem to be able to put in a full 80 without their minds wandering. They always seem to take their foot off the gas and that's when Wales could hurt them.

Wales at home are always good value and France away are always a mystery.

Thekidneybean

I don't know who I want to win tbh. I think France will, Wales seem to just be hitting the panic button. However I kind of want Wales to win because of our chances improving and all the bad days France have given us. Wales have a point to prove and will want a good result.

Personally I think I'd have put hook at 13 and North at 11

norrie rugger

Remember that Wales lost to us last year and still won the championship.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

norrie rugger wrote: »

Remember that Wales lost to us last year and still won the championship.

Considering the points difference I don't see them doing it again

Wouldn't be surprised if they went out and spanked France though. In fact, considering how poor of a coach PSA I'd nearly expect them to get a lot more joy in attack

Orlaw3136

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

I don't think it was a case of Lydiate being unfit, just that he's a seriously one dimensional player

I think he's a very good defensive 6, although his offensive capability is not at the same level, so we may be saying the same thing in that sense.

In either event though he's been a very effective player in his role. He was a non-participant against us except when penalised and looked blown out after 20 minutes. The pace of the game when it was still in the balance would if anything have suited his style - so I think he's completely unfit. I don't think it was a case of us doing anything especially to negate him.

BoarHunter

Simon Zebo

rrpc wrote: »

Warburton was only back for the Ireland match, you'd have to assume that the intervening two weeks have sharpened him up as well as Lydiate. It's still a Lions back row, it can still cause problems for the French.

The thing is France don't seem to be able to put in a full 80 without their minds wandering. They always seem to take their foot off the gas and that's when Wales could hurt them.

Wales at home are always good value and France away are always a mystery.

While all the nations rested their players last week only 6 french players were left aside. with the rythm of the TOP14 it's already a good thing we can get on top of a match over 40 minutes of open play.
Ireland rested 98% of their squad. Wales rested as well as England and Italy.

that's your mystery solved

Orlaw3136

rrpc wrote: »

Warburton was only back for the Ireland match, you'd have to assume that the intervening two weeks have sharpened him up as well as Lydiate. It's still a Lions back row, it can still cause problems for the French.

I think those are very fair points. With that, the Lions back row was of course selected by...:pac: But look, I'm sure Lydiate/Warburton as proud players will be hurting tremendously and the need for redemption should put them on the pitch on Friday night as driven men. A few others in that pack would be in the same category I suppose - perhaps too many of them. If Lydiate is not actually properly fit that just won't matter, and he may drag Warburton's effectiveness down with him if he's the passenger I think he is.

rrpc wrote: »

The thing is France don't seem to be able to put in a full 80 without their minds wandering. They always seem to take their foot off the gas and that's when Wales could hurt them.

Can't gainsay that either - I just don't see where Wales are likely to score many points outside of the unerring boot of Leigh Halfpenny, if their 8 get trodden on the way I think they will.

Thekidneybean wrote: »

I don't know who I want to win tbh. I think France will, Wales seem to just be hitting the panic button. However I kind of want Wales to win because of our chances improving and all the bad days France have given us. Wales have a point to prove and will want a good result.

Personally I think I'd have put hook at 13 and North at 11

I'd have done that and picked Tipuric over Lydiate to start on the assumption that selecting Hook means your going to play with width and close to the gainline. I don't know what I would have done with his props as in I'd like to drop them both but there's not much behind to replace them.

If I was picking the team on the basis of the quest for redemption getting me a far enhanced performance, as he seems to have done, then I'd have left Phillips at 9. He rarely plays badly twice in a row (and he was by no means the cause of the problems against us) and he's always been good vs France.

Neil3030

North at 13 could be outlet for Fofana to do some serious damage and on the other side of things, his direct running style will not trouble Bastareaud in the slightest. North at 13 made sense for the Saints against Leinster, as he wasn't facing a very dynamic midfield attacking threat, and had a significant size advantage for ball carrying. But this matchup just gives France such an edge, I can't understand what Gatland is thinking.

(Cut to George North, hat-trick of tries, 4 turnovers, MOTM... )

Swiwi.

Wales to win easy IMO. They'll want to make amends at home after their Dublin downtrou. France have PSA and that gives the home team a 10 point head start. And I doubt Lady Luck smiles on the French for 3 weeks running when it comes to bounce of the ball etc.

Ah jet lag. It's 2 in the morning here and I'm wide awake

Thekidneybean

I'd have done that and picked Tipuric over Lydiate to start on the assumption that selecting Hook means your going to play with width and close to the gainline. I don't know what I would have done with his props as in I'd like to drop them both but there's not much behind to replace them.

If I was picking the team on the basis of the quest for redemption getting me a far enhanced performance, as he seems to have done, then I'd have left Phillips at 9. He rarely plays badly twice in a row (and he was by no means the cause of the problems against us) and he's always been good vs France.[/QUOTE]


Well I think they'd have to play a wide game because Roberts and North won't just run over fofana and basteraud. Hook would be better I think because he would do more with ball in hand rather then just crashball.

Glass Prison 1214

Maybe I'm mistaken but aren't both of the french replacement props looseheads?

molloyjh

France

Wales will be hurting and will need to restore some pride. A home game is exactly what they need right now. Still though there have to be serious question marks around their squad with so many underperforming against Ireland and the weaknesses at half-back.

France on the other hand could really go either way. They haven't been massively impressive yet. In fact I thought they were pretty average against Italy, one or two little snippets aside. They don't seem to have it in them to play for 80 mins (which I think will be our biggest advantage over them in a few weeks). They don't seem to have the structure or the organisation to be able to shut Wales out like we did. It could end up an open game like the France-England opener. And that could go either way.

At the end of the day I think we should be cheering on Wales though. If they were playing after us it might be different, but with 2 away games to London and Paris for us after this game we need to air on the side of caution. I don't see Wales making up the points difference at this stage (we're 60 points ahead of them on that front). If France win and we lose this weekend that puts France in the driving seat with a home game against us to seal it. But if France and ourselves both lose we are still in the driving seat (unless England utterly trounce us).

Obviously if we win then we're well and truly in the drivers seat....

thomond2006

Glass Prison 1214 wrote: »

Maybe I'm mistaken but aren't both of the french replacement props looseheads?

That's right. Luc Ducalcon was originally called up to replace Slimani but he got injured at the weekend.

There are very few eligible tightheads who are regular starters in the Top14.

[Jackass]

France

I'd say Wales will win without it being too tight. I can't see them buckling at home and I can't see them not giving a big reaction to the Irish performance. The Welsh team is a pretty proud one and are capable of massive backlashes, see the Lions tour and how Wales did in the third test!

I'm also not overly excited about the French team, I think if they played England in Twickenham they would have been well beaten, but the partizan French crowd really got them over the line and they probably didn't deserve the win on balance, but for some French magic that only they can produce when they really get their tales up. I don't think Wales will let them get into that free flowing style in Cardiff.

simonmln

Is there any way for Wales to win but Liam Williams still to lose?

That's what I'd like to see.

rrpc

France

simonmln wrote: »

Is there any way for Wales to win but Liam Williams still to lose?

That's what I'd like to see.

Yep, he could get a red card in the last minute of the match which puts him out for the rest of the season.

pickarooney

A draw all the way please. 54-54 would be nice.

Neil3030

molloyjh wrote: »

Wales will be hurting and will need to restore some pride. A home game is exactly what they need right now. Still though there have to be serious question marks around their squad with so many underperforming against Ireland and the weaknesses at half-back.

France on the other hand could really go either way. They haven't been massively impressive yet. In fact I thought they were pretty average against Italy, one or two little snippets aside. They don't seem to have it in them to play for 80 mins (which I think will be our biggest advantage over them in a few weeks). They don't seem to have the structure or the organisation to be able to shut Wales out like we did. It could end up an open game like the France-England opener. And that could go either way.

At the end of the day I think we should be cheering on Wales though. If they were playing after us it might be different, but with 2 away games to London and Paris for us after this game we need to air on the side of caution. I don't see Wales making up the points difference at this stage (we're 60 points ahead of them on that front). If France win and we lose this weekend that puts France in the driving seat with a home game against us to seal it. But if France and ourselves both lose we are still in the driving seat (unless England utterly trounce us).

Obviously if we win then we're well and truly in the drivers seat....

From a Hiberno-centric perspective, I think France winning on Friday night helps us in two ways.

I think regardless of how we fair out against England, I'd prefer to go to Paris to face an unbeaten French team. The weight of expectation they'll put themselves under, combined with an arguable propensity to buidéal affairs every so often, may allow us slip in relatively under the radar. Of course, if we ourselves are unbeaten, we will have our own internal pressure, but being away to an unbeaten French side allows us assume our more comfortable position of underdog.

Plus if any team could be relied on to close a 40ish point gap at home to Scotland with the tournament on the line, it's Wales. I'd much rather they were out of the picture tbh, even if they must go to Twickenham in the interim.

andrewdcs

France

Reckon Wales should win this but not by much, they are always crcrking games. I don't think we'd seek nor deserve any underdog status going to paris I'd we win this week and next. ... If we lost obvs we would.

?

penybont exile

France

molloyjh wrote: »

Wales will be hurting and will need to restore some pride. A home game is exactly what they need right now. Still though there have to be serious question marks around their squad with so many underperforming against Ireland and the weaknesses at half-back.

France on the other hand could really go either way. They haven't been massively impressive yet. In fact I thought they were pretty average against Italy, one or two little snippets aside. They don't seem to have it in them to play for 80 mins (which I think will be our biggest advantage over them in a few weeks). They don't seem to have the structure or the organisation to be able to shut Wales out like we did. It could end up an open game like the France-England opener. And that could go either way.

At the end of the day I think we should be cheering on Wales though. If they were playing after us it might be different, but with 2 away games to London and Paris for us after this game we need to air on the side of caution. I don't see Wales making up the points difference at this stage (we're 60 points ahead of them on that front). If France win and we lose this weekend that puts France in the driving seat with a home game against us to seal it. But if France and ourselves both lose we are still in the driving seat (unless England utterly trounce us).

Obviously if we win then we're well and truly in the drivers seat....

The way I see it is that if we get two home wins this weekend England & France will be in the driving seat.

This competition is really about six matches. For Ireland or Wales to prevail they will have to pick up an away win.

shuffol

Interesting comments from Gatland on Phillips being dropped.

http://www.espn.co.uk/six-nations-2014/rugby/story/215305.html

Some people questioning Lydiates selection, I think this is the type of game that he's made for, everything good the French pack does comes through Picamoles, Lydiates role will be to shut him down. One of the contests I'm most looking forward to.
Millenium Stadium on a Friday evening will be a cracking atmosphere, I expect a reaction from Wales and a big performance.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Gatland putting his foot in his mouth there. Why in gods name did he say that to the press?

Burgo

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

Gatland putting his foot in his mouth there. Why in gods name did he say that to the press?

Yeah seems like a very odd thing to say to the press, don't know what he was thinking with that one.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

At least Phillips looked pissed off to be losing

.ak

What's wrong with what he said? Aside from sounding like a school teacher?

andymx11

.ak wrote: »

What's wrong with what he said? Aside from sounding like a school teacher?

I think it's fair enough. His aggression has the Potiential to impact his team. Nothing like a public hanging to focus the mind.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

.ak wrote: »

What's wrong with what he said? Aside from sounding like a school teacher?

Those kind of things should be kept within a squad, especially when there were a lot of players a lot worse than Phillips against Ireland that remain in the side.

Nothing to be gained from saying it to the press

shuffol

.ak wrote: »

What's wrong with what he said? Aside from sounding like a school teacher?

I dunno, I think if Phillips is playing well it'd be something Gatland would be using to praise him for, being confrontational is Phillips game.

corny

France easily have the superior team on paper but they'll be brushed aside in this. Why? Wales are not going to gift them points and they are incapable (moments of individual brilliance aside) of constructing good attacking play. If the Welsh get ahead, they'll stay ahead and keep pulling away. The French, or more precisely PSA, are waiting to be exposed.

Also, i suspect the Welsh are going to turn in a performance. They were complacent against Italy and complacent against us. Reality check should sort them out.

aimee1

Orlaw3136 wrote: »

Jebus. How can Warren Gatland pick that backrow again. On his showing against Ireland you would have to conclude that Dan Lydiate is just not fit - never mind match fit I mean he's not conditioned to a basically acceptable level. Again on his showing against Ireland Warburton is not firing at all - this could actually be affected by him lacking an effective partner, but the logic of leaving Lydiate on that 15 with him is just...not present.

Ive never been convinced by Warburton. I see a lot of hype but no end result on the pitch. The excuses were made in the 1st Lions test because he was injured, and he was hailed as a legend in the 2nd for a few turnovers. The Lions smashed the Aussies in the third test when he was absent through injury.

Any time I see him play for Cardiff he is anonymous. Wales smashed England last year because Tipuric was on the pitch. He had an outstanding game, much better then any game i've ever seen from Warburton.

Gatland seems to just pick players on reputation/hype despite obvious injury concerns or lack of game time [or form] lately.

I think France might edge this one. They have a strong pack and will prefer a set piece oriented game [surely they saw how Ireland beat them] which does not suit Wales and the Welsh scrum and lineout is pretty poor. One key area will be the bench. Like Ireland did, France have a huge advantage on the bench i think.

Ardillaun

Simon Zebo

More think Wales will win? I don't see that.

stpaddy99

Thekidneybean wrote: »

I don't know who I want to win tbh. I think France will, Wales seem to just be hitting the panic button. However I kind of want Wales to win because of our chances improving and all the bad days France have given us. Wales have a point to prove and will want a good result.

Personally I think I'd have put hook at 13 and North at 11

100% agree with this. another negative selection from gatland. instead of adding hook for his skill and flair and keeping north as a world class finisher, hes instead gone defensive and picked a team to stop basteraud and fofana. very negative and wales will be narrow and one dimensional again. it annoys me because i want wales to turn the french over and this damage limitation selection has thrown awau any chnace wales had. also dropping phillips for that midget from the ospreys is a joke. france by 15

rrpc

France

stpaddy99 wrote: »

100% agree with this. another negative selection from gatland. instead of adding hook for his skill and flair and keeping north as a world class finisher, hes instead gone defensive and picked a team to stop basteraud and fofana. very negative and wales will be narrow and one dimensional again. it annoys me because i want wales to turn the french over and this damage limitation selection has thrown awau any chnace wales had. also dropping phillips for that midget from the ospreys is a joke. france by 15

On the other hand Joe has published the blueprint on how to defeat Warrenball. PSA is a crap coach, but he won't have missed that.

stephen_n

rrpc wrote: »

On the other hand Joe has published the blueprint on how to defeat Warrenball. PSA is a crap coach, but he won't have missed that.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if PSA sends them out to play the exact opposite to the way we played, also they don't really have the the game management from their halfbacks that we do.

irishbucsfan

Warburton and Lydiate are both superior players to Tipuric. There is definitely a question of their own form but Tipuric's weaknesses are and have always been magnified by the way Gatland has his pack playing. I can completely understand why he isn't used, if there was someone else on the periphery I'd imagine they'd feel much more comfortable making the change. Ultimately they're much more likely to get an effective performance from the incumbents, as they've at least shown themselves as capable of that particular style of play. If someone like Kidney was coaching them it'd be Tipuric every time I'd imagine.

rrpc

France

stephen_n wrote: »

I wouldn't be at all surprised if PSA sends them out to play the exact opposite to the way we played, also they don't really have the the game management from their halfbacks that we do.

I don't agree at all. Plisson is well capable of dinking balls into space and the likes of Huget, Bonneval and Dulin are well capable of chasing them. Never mind their 'centre' Szarzewski

It's not as though they haven't already played that kind of game. I think Murray Kinsella referred to it in his analysis of England's defense. Granted, they weren't wholly effective, but they did cause England some problems.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Warburton and Lydiate are both superior players to Tipuric. There is definitely a question of their own form but Tipuric's weaknesses are and have always been magnified by the way Gatland has his pack playing. I can completely understand why he isn't used, if there was someone else on the periphery I'd imagine they'd feel much more comfortable making the change. Ultimately they're much more likely to get an effective performance from the incumbents, as they've at least shown themselves as capable of that particular style of play. If someone like Kidney was coaching them it'd be Tipuric every time I'd imagine.

You've been saying this for a while, and bar one or two isolated games, the opposite seems to be true

Granted they're different 7's but Warburton and Lydiate have been largely average for a long time while Tipuric is in great from consistently and still doesn't get a look in even after the entire Welsh backrow is obliterated against Ireland

irishbucsfan

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

You've been saying this for a while, and bar one or two isolated games, the opposite seems to be true

Granted they're different 7's but Warburton and Lydiate have been largely average for a long time while Tipuric is in great from consistently and still doesn't get a look in even after the entire Welsh backrow is obliterated against Ireland

The opposite certainly doesn't seem to be true to me. Tipuric may be better at the defensive breakdown but Warburton is a clearly superior player in every other facet of play as well as being a very strong player. I don't know why anyone would compare them directly really. Maybe if it wasn't a Gatland team focused on retention of possession and control there would be a better case for Tipuric, but I know who I'd rather play beside.

Orlaw3136

Tipuric v Warburton.

Warburton = fine athlete & rugby player who seems to have a patchy form and injury profile. My guess is that the latter influences the former and I have a suspicion that he has over-extended himself physically to muscle up which renders him prone to injury.

Tipuric - as good if not better athletically. Also a difference-maker and influences games at key moments as does Warburton when fit. To say he might be outshone offensively by warburton is to ignore his role in e.g. the try against England in the decider last year when he dealt with the play like a top class centre would have (show, go, gone and timed pass). Witness also his game-changing cameo in the 2nd half against us last year when he almost won them the game. He's better than Warburton the other side of the ball, beyond doubt.

I'd agree that warburton free from injury and on form might be preferred but when exactly did Warburton last tick both of those boxes ? Whereas I don't think Tipuric has dipped at all. His misfortune is that Warburton is captain when available for selection (which doesn't mean 'fit' in Wales) and that Gatland refuses to accept that Lydiate is not currently the player he was when he was integral to grand slam/RWC efforts - also that Warren is pretty much obsessed with big lads smashing it up in both directions the last while.

stephen_n

rrpc wrote: »

I don't agree at all. Plisson is well capable of dinking balls into space and the likes of Huget, Bonneval and Dulin are well capable of chasing them. Never mind their 'centre' Szarzewski

It's not as though they haven't already played that kind of game. I think Murray Kinsella referred to it in his analysis of England's defense. Granted, they weren't wholly effective, but they did cause England some problems.

It wasn't just a case of dinking balls into space though with us against Wales, it was varying the kicks and generally pulling the strings, I don't think the French half backs have that. Against Italy the French looked like headless chickens for probably 65 minutes of the game, it was only that the Italians lacked any form of penetration that saved flattered the French. Given the amount of possession the Italians had, the Welsh will score tries, even against good defenders. Will be interesting to see, because the French have talent in abundance but don't seem to know how to use it.