Ireland vs Wales, Saturday 8th February, 2:30pm, Aviva Stadium

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Wales: Leigh Halfpenny (Cardiff Blues), Alex Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Jamie Roberts (Racing Metro), George North (Northampton Saints), Rhys Priestland (Scarlets), Mike Phillips (Racing Metro), Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), Richard Hibbard (Ospreys), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Andrew Coombs (Newport Gwent Dragons), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Dan Lydiate (Racing Metro), Sam Warburton (capt - Cardiff Blues), Taulupe Faletau (Newport Gwent Dragons).
Replacements: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Paul James (Bath Rugby), Rhodri Jones (Scarlets), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Rhys Webb (Ospreys), James Hook (Perpignan), Liam Williams (Scarlets)




In the grand scheme of things Ireland have a very good record against Wales over the last ten years. Take away two massively dodgy officiating decisions and it would likely be even better. What that record doesn’t tell you is the massive contrast in consistency of performance outside of the fixture for both sides.

Wales have won a glut of championships through consistency of performance and operating in a system each and every player is clearly comfortable with. Under Declan Kidney, Ireland failed to form any sort of consistency outside of one or two good performances a year that highlight just how capable this Irish side are with the right tools at their disposal.

Under Joe Schmidt there seems to be green buds appearing. In times gone Ireland would have struggled to dispose of Scotland last week. Instead we remained patient, took our chances and ran out comfortable winners without ever really having to come out of second gear.

Wales had a much more sluggish against a young Italian side in Cardiff. But if last year’s championship taught us anything it’s that Wales shouldn’t be discounted because of their opening performance.

Key Clashes
Front Row

Four years ago you would have struggled to find a better scrummaging combination than Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins. However, a nightmare stint in France seems to have neutered Jenkins and Jones seems to be really struggling with the new scrum laws.
Mike Ross has had similar problems with the new laws, but the man nicknamed “the scrum doctor” seems to be coming to terms with the new engagements during a time when he is under considerable pressure from Martin Moore both nationally and provincially.

Cian Healy’s scrummaging may not be at the same level as the rest of his game but it’s worth noting that he easily disposed of Jones on numerous occasions in the Leinster/Osprey’s Heineken Cup match last week. Things don’t get better for Jones when you look at the Irish bench. He’s had big issues against Jack McGrath recently too.
It’s hard to see the Welsh reserve fatties striking much fear in the Irish pack either. Paul James had a stinker against Italy last weekend that cost him his starting place.

The scrum is certainly an area Ireland can and presumably will target on Saturday.
Richard Hibbard and Rory Best are both in very good form. Hard to separate the two hookers but Best might have an easier time carrying out his core duties with Devin Toner more or less guaranteeing secure lineout ball for Ireland while Welsh beanpole Like Charteris is ruled out through injury.

Back Three

Wales clearly have the upper hand in this area. George North and Alex Cuthbert are two world class wingers whereas Dave Kearney (room for improvement at only 23) and Andrew Trimble are solid if unspectacular international players.
Any loose kicking from Sexton or Murray will be punished. North in particular has a penchant for breaking hearts following sloppy Garryowen (see Lions tour). Trimble will need to improve his kick chase from last week and Dave Kearney will have to be solid in the tackle area for 80 minutes (the memory of Cuthbert’s try in the RDS prior to Christmas should remind him of the danger slacking off the big Welshman).

Poor kicking will feed the strengths of Cuthbert and North, but if executed correctly it can highlight what is a massive weakness in both wingers’ games. Cuthbert’s defensive positioning cost him his Lions starting place, and although North offered too much in attack to leave out his own defense was exposed during the tour and more recently under a high ball against Italy that could have easily led to a try but for a knock on.

In Rob Kearney and Leigh Halfpenny, Ireland holds an advantage imo. Halfpenny is a top class fullback, his positional sense, defensive capabilities and kicking game paper over a lot of the cracks exposed by his two wingers when Wales are on the back foot. But an inform Rob Kearney is much more of a weapon, and Kearney is really in top form at the moment. His try against Scotland last week exhibited the massive upper body strength he has with ball in hand and under the high ball he’s a serious attacking weapon.

If we can neuter the Welsh wingers and implement our kicking game with accuracy it will go a long way to seeing Ireland get the win.

Backrow

It’s hard to appreciate the importance of this particular clash. With SOB out Ireland are undoubtedly weaker in terms of personnel but it’s refreshing to see that POM/Heaslip/Henry are all individually playing well and complimenting each other as a unit.
Lydiate and Warburton are going to get through a **** load of dog work and it’s going to be a lot harder for POM to replicate his turnover heroics of last week.

The clash between Heaslip and Toby Falatau will be a mouth-watering battler considering how close they ran each other for the Lions test shirt over the summer.

Justin Tipuric will provide top class impact off the bench but Ireland have an able but green seven in Tommy O’Donnell that has the potential to make a similar impact.

It’s very hard to separate the two units but the outcome could very easily decide the game. Here’s hoping we don’t see a repeat of the dominance this very unit inflicted on what was arguably Ireland’s best backrow of the professional era in 2011.

Verdict

There are so many variables at play in this game that I haven’t even mentioned, the clash between two massively contrasting midfields, Gatland’s simplicity versus Schmidt’s obsessive attention to detail, Murray facing up against Phillips and Wales’ ability to cope with our rolling maul.

I could easily go on for another 1,000 words and be none the wiser as to how this game is going to play out. On paper I think we’ve the better side, better ball carriers up front and the better halfbacks, but we need to see a consistency in performance that has escaped this Irish team for the last four years.

Ireland by 7

former legend

Good man Ugo.

I would hope that another advantage Ireland would have is:
Replacements: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Paul James (Bath Rugby), Rhodri Jones (Scarlets), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Rhys Webb (Ospreys), James Hook (Perpignan), Liam Williams (Scarlets)
vs
Replacements: Sean Cronin, Jack McGrath, Martin Moore, Dan Tuohy, Tommy O'Donnell, Isaac Boss, Paddy Jackson, Fergus McFadden

With Jenkins short of match fitness and Adam Jones really shoving on, Wales are going to need their front-row subs and none of them inspire much confidence, whereas our front-three are a much better proposition IMO. Tipuric is top-class of course and Williams is a threat, but I would still think that if the game is in the balance and legs are getting tired on a heavy pitch, our bench can make more of an impact than theirs.

thomond2006

Another Key "Clash": POM vs Liam Williams :pac:

Quint2010

Ireland are 2 point favourites for this. I think 7 points is generous. Anyone think Schmidt pick Tuohy ahead of Toner for this to counteract the Welsh physicality? Apparently Coombs is a very physical player.

ScissorPaperRock

Team will be announced at 13:05 live on IrishRugby.ie

BoarHunter

Following up on the weather :

Yet another storm will approach from the Atlantic Ocean on Friday, delivering a shot of rainfall and strong winds across the entire region on Friday night into Saturday. Once again Ireland and all of the United Kingdom will be at risk for localized flooding problems as rainfall up to 30 mm (1.18 inches).

Strong winds will batter the region with sustained winds over 65 kph (40 mph) at times along with gusts upwards of 95 kph (60 mph).

Forecast for the saturday afternoon is a bit more gentle with winds around 55-60 km/h

Swiwi.

My number one hope is that we don't groan as North & Cuthbert punish Ireland from diabolical kicking errors. I would try and give them as little ball as possible. I don't think the Welsh have the pack or the halves to win it for them, so they'll be relying on Halfpenny's boot (no silly penalties now lads), Roberts, and their wings. Can take HP out of the equation with discipline, and the wings out of it by not kicking rubbish, and then it's just up to the midfield to tackle Roberts, who is not known for his off-loading ability.

danthefan

Swiwi. wrote: »

My number one hope is that we don't groan as North & Cuthbert punish Ireland from diabolical kicking errors. I would try and give them as little ball as possible. I don't think the Welsh have the pack or the halves to win it for them, so they'll be relying on Halfpenny's boot (no silly penalties now lads), Roberts, and their wings. Can take HP out of the equation with discipline, and the wings out of it by not kicking rubbish, and then it's just up to the midfield to tackle Roberts, who is not known for his off-loading ability.

Tbh I don't mind if we kick at Cuthbert, as long as it's not directly at him. His positioning can be off and he's about as nimble as an oil tanker, so with a decent chase I think there could be some joy there. He's lethal given a run at you though obviously.

Molester Stallone

Excitement is starting to build now boyos!

ScissorPaperRock

For a six-day turnaround, this week has been slooooooowww.

Not looking forward to the upcoming two week turnaround. I guess I'll have to resort to working again.

danthefan

ScissorPaperRock wrote: »

For a six-day turnaround, this week has been slooooooowww.

Not looking forward to the upcoming two week turnaround. I guess I'll have to resort to working again.

Obviously it's not the same at all but at least there's provincial rugby in the off-week.

eyeball kid

Nice write up Ugo.

Hope O'Connell manages to play on Saturday. Touhy played well last week but I think POC's leadership was missing a bit, especially in the 1st half. Would be worried if we kick a lot of ball back to them. Really don't need to be giving Cuthbert and North the ball to run at us.

danthefan

Marshall named on the bench for Ulster this weekend, so confirmed D'Arcy is starting.

Kayless

Good article on the BBC about the Ireland/Wales revivalry

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/26040258

"The Irish media was appalled that the chosen one wasn't chosen" :eek: they even describe Keith Wood as a "vengeful prophet!" haha

the baby bull elephant

Any stream for the team announcement?

awec

the baby bull elephant wrote: »

Any stream for the team announcement?

Usually on irishrugby.ie

bilston

the baby bull elephant wrote: »

Any stream for the team announcement?

I would say Irishrugby.ie but since the reboot I don't see a link anywhere?

former legend

the baby bull elephant wrote: »

Any stream for the team announcement?

tinyurl.com/mlz377q

1.15pm

Kayless

danthefan wrote: »

Marshall named on the bench for Ulster this weekend, so confirmed D'Arcy is starting.

Cave playing 12 and Payne at 13, a sign of things to come? Ulster and Ireland must see Cave as a 12 now but I'm not sure how this is going to work when you have Marshall and Olding fighting it out for the 12 jersey at Ulster. Unless Olding slots in at 13 and Payne returns to 15 for Ulster/Ireland. Still with Fitz set to play 13 for Leinster it looks like we are going to have serious depth at 12/13 and 15 next season.

Also Henderson on the bench so Dan must be starting for Ireland or on the bench vs Wales

ScissorPaperRock

Irish Rugby ‏@irfurugby 5m
Ireland Team Announcement Live on Irish Rugby TV at 1.15pm #IrlvWal #Irishrugby #RBS6Nations http://tinyurl.com/mlz377q

molloyjh

Excellent write up Ugo.

Regarding the kicking I thought we were very good there on Sunday for the most part. The chase was generally good and we managed to regain possession or turn over the ball a fair bit as a result. That said the weather reports I was reading yesterday indicated it could get very windy on the day so depending on the conditions we may not see much of that.

I think our pack will fare well enough and our bench options are better in the tight 5 anyway. Our line-outs should be a good source of possession and we could possibly cause them some headaches there. I was impressed with how we competed against the Scottish line-out.

The battle at the breakdown is the one area that we might struggle in up front. It's crucial that we don't as that will undoubtedly be the winning and losing of the game.

n the back line the lack of a spark like Fitzy or Earls is a worry. Ferg has to start because he is the closest we have to something like that. But with the way Joe uses forwards and backs together the back line issues might not be as pronounced.

Shut Wales down in the middle of the park by targeting Priestland and giving their centres no space to operate and their back line is half way to nullified. Again though the breakdown will determine how effective we can be there. If we've got bodies tied up in that we will suffer for it.

Overall I'm optimistic, but not wildly so. I reckon Ireland by 4.

bilston

Link up now.

cson

Wouldn't necessarily agree that we have the advantage at full back; Halfpenney is world class.

molloyjh

awec wrote: »

Usually on irishrugby.ie

Circular links. Circular links everywhere!

You click on the link on the homepage and it brings you to a landing page. Click on that and it brings you to the live page. Click on the Announcement link and it brings you back to the first landing page again.

thomond2006

Luke Marshall playing for Ulster...

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

cson wrote: »

Wouldn't necessarily agree that we have the advantage at full back; Halfpenney is world class.

So is Kearney. Halfpenney has gotten a serious amount of hype since the Lions. Where he was rock solid, but take away his kicking and there's not much to his attacking game

DGRulz

Theres a new section for live streaming, its playing the usual loop of IRFU TV videos so it might be this, http://www.irishrugby.ie/live_streaming.php

ssaye2

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

ssaye2 wrote: »

my neck hurts!

ssaye2

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

my neck hurts!

Blame Kelly from the indo

pc7

To those a hell of a lot more knowledgeable than me, would you consider it unlucky or fair for Marshall not to even be on the bench. I didn't think he did too bad at all Sunday, or is Joe just trying all the options out with an eye to the future (in that he gave him a run for an easier game than wales and is back to D'arcy as its a tougher call this week)?

former legend

Here we go so. http://www.irishrugby.ie/live

As expected. D'Arcy in, Tuohy benches, no other changes

Late fitness test for O'Connell on Saturday morning but expected to be fine.

ScissorPaperRock

What the **** is going on with this team announcement/website?

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

pc7 wrote: »

To those a hell of a lot more knowledgeable than me, would you consider it unlucky or fair for Marshall not to even be on the bench. I didn't think he did too bad at all Sunday, or is Joe just trying all the options out with an eye to the future?

Think it's Schmidts rotation approach rather than Marshall being dropped. He's not suited to the bench either considering he only really covers 12

Marshall was decent last week but Darcy is in great form and we'll need to have a defensively familiar midfield up against the Welsh backline

Sandwlch

pc7 wrote: »

To those a hell of a lot more knowledgeable than me, would you consider it unlucky or fair for Marshall not to even be on the bench. I didn't think he did too bad at all Sunday, or is Joe just trying all the options out with an eye to the future?

Fair. He is not a good bench option so unlikely ever to be picked there.

Cosmo Kramer

pc7 wrote: »

To those a hell of a lot more knowledgeable than me, would you consider it unlucky or fair for Marshall not to even be on the bench. I didn't think he did too bad at all Sunday, or is Joe just trying all the options out with an eye to the future?

He's an out and out 12 - so if he doesn't start he can't cover enough positions to bench. I think D'arcy is a fair call for Saturday but Marshall is still the most likely option longer term.

LeeroyJones

pc7 wrote: »

To those a hell of a lot more knowledgeable than me, would you consider it unlucky or fair for Marshall not to even be on the bench. I didn't think he did too bad at all Sunday, or is Joe just trying all the options out with an eye to the future?

He's strictly a 12 with, albeit some, minimal experience at other positions. So going by the basis that you bench a scrum half, fly half and a utility back he doesn't fit the bill for the bench.

Unlucky not to start but he was never going to bench

Sandwlch

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

Think it's Schmidts rotation approach rather than Marshall being dropped.

I would have thought its a clear dropping.

ssaye2

POC embarrassed with illness - legend

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Sandwlch wrote: »

I would have thought its a clear dropping.

How? Darcy was fantastic against the AB's and Marshall came back in for last weekend will almost certainly feature again in the six nations

It's fairly clear Schmidt is rotating Darcy and Marshall

pc7

Thanks guys good insight, makes sense.

Zzippy

thomond2006 wrote: »

Another Key "Clash": POM vs Liam Williams :pac:

Williams has calmed down a lot and doesn't deserve the troublemaker tag any more. I'm sick of seeing POM get involved in niggly arguments and handbags, IMO he needs to kick that sh!te out of his game before he can really be considered an asset to the team. I would hope JS has told him to concentrate on the game and his role for the team and not to get involved in silly confrontations, it does us no favours. Great player but really annoying to watch sometimes...

.ak

Any word of Maccer's head?

Pudsy33

Sandwlch wrote: »

I would have thought its a clear dropping.

It's not, I reckon Darcy was gonna play here regardless.

Tox56

Pudsy33 wrote: »

It's not, I reckon Darcy was gonna play here regardless.

Schmidt says they were always looking for Marshall and D'Arcy to both play in the opening 2 games. Says Marshall took his chance last week

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Zzippy wrote: »

Williams has calmed down a lot and doesn't deserve the troublemaker tag any more. I'm sick of seeing POM get involved in niggly arguments and handbags, IMO he needs to kick that sh!te out of his game before he can really be considered an asset to the team. I would hope JS has told him to concentrate on the game and his role for the team and not to get involved in silly confrontations, it does us no favours. Great player but really annoying to watch sometimes...

Williams hasn't cleaned up his act at all from any of the times I've seen him this season

As for POM. If it ever starts hurting the team it will be an issue. He knows the line

Grimebox

What are they talking about? Penney leaving?

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

In an interesting side note, Cave starts at 12 for Ulster this weekend

b.gud

Does anyone else think that it's not really the place to be asking O'Connell questions about Penney leaving?

I know it's breaking news and that O'Connell is obviously someone who the press would be first to ask questions about it, but it's the Ireland team announcement, so it should be Ireland related questions

ssaye2

Grimebox wrote: »

What are they talking about? Penney leaving?

Fecking Journos - talking about match now -

small amount of training
healy swelling - ankle fine no issue like old ankle problem - trained scrummaged well

marshall fine positive

Mahatma Geansai

Pretty uninspiring squad tbh. Marshall and Tuohy both very unlucky to miss out.