Sunday 9th (Hennessey day)

Francie Barrett

Race cards for all races now up on Irishracing.com. Event looks like it will be a cracker although I am saddened to hear Salsify won't defend its title in the hunter chase.

Anyone want to score me a few tickets?

STADEdeLUC

Looking forward to seeing Plinth

Francie Barrett

I see that Vivega (full brother to Quevega) has an entry for the bumper here. Horse is unraced and owned by the Ricci's, probably be a great 10/11 favourite.

Francie Barrett

Betti g taking shape for tomorrow. Plan on taking Tony Martin's horse, Quickpick Vic at an early price.

Colonel Sanders

Took 7/2 Plinth during the week. I'm with Urban in thinking he was a lot better than the winning distance at Xmas. Ivan probably improved next time out but I couldn't fathom the prices

All the 9/4 gone now & seems to be bits & pieces for the Triumph again too (after being well backed during the week)

Plinth Plinth Plinth

BumperD

Going for 2 tomorrow. I'm not sure why Guitar Pete is the price he is, he has the best experience in the field and is a better jumper than the 2 market leaders imo. His form is solid (bagged a Gr 2 lto by 7L). The race Plinth won was visually good, but the form has not worked out brilliantly, other than for Ivan Grozny (I can already sense Colonel & Urban heading my direction with flaming torches and a couple of pitchforks after me dissing the Plinth Plinth Plinth). Guitar Pete represents trainer who won this race last year and I think he's a cracking bet 13/2.

Whatever the hype about lockstockandbarrell, I'm going with Vigil in the last. The horse that beat him getting weight was snapped up during the week by JP - Windsor Park destroyed a decent looking field a couple of weeks back over the course for this trainer after a couple of seconds. I wouldn't be surprised if this fella is primed for a big run & I guess the market will prove a good guide tomorrow. 11/2 looks value.

2 singles & an ew double for me.

Colonel Sanders

What do people make of the Hennesy?

Last Instalment is quite weak & listening to Fenton during the week he seems to think he'll come on for it & Cheltenham is priority number 1. First Lieutenant must have every chance, I love Tidal Bay, he's 13 but judged on the Welsh National is still going strong. Nicholls is a genius at keeping these old horses sweet & running well

Not so sure last years staying novices are all that hot so I think Lyreen Legend isn't a great price at all

Trappy old contest, I'll settle for Last Instalment running well

Hulk Hands

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

What do people make of the Hennesy?

Last Instalment is quite weak & listening to Fenton during the week he seems to think he'll come on for it & Cheltenham is priority number 1. First Lieutenant must have every chance, I love Tidal Bay, he's 13 but judged on the Welsh National is still going strong. Nicholls is a genius at keeping these old horses sweet & running well

Not so sure last years staying novices are all that hot so I think Lyreen Legend isn't a great price at all

Trappy old contest, I'll settle for Last Instalment running well

Re: Plinth, I could basically copy and paste your post above.

FL is starting to verge on too big a price now at 5/2. While I can forgive the run of seconds on his CV as circumstance as he not ungenuine, I think he hates this ground (lexus was a much better surface). However, I wouldn't be laying 5/2 as he's clear of these on form. Tidal Bay has every chance but this isnt his 'Grand National' and the value's gone. I have Lyreen e/w 3 places at 9s which i'm delighted with but he seems to be one of those under the radar horses that the market has copped on to. Great comeback run, everything suits but likely to find one too good. LW has no chance in the ground as much as I respect Gary O'Brien and pricewise's opinion. If Last instament was near 8's or so on betfair tomorrow (very possible), I couldnt put anyone off. Backing drifters isnt advised but in a race like this where much is known, it might be ok and need it or not he could be value on that with trip and conditions likely perfect. Roi du Mee 25s on betfair, i've seen worse long shots. TJ won't stay

I know its a skinny price but I hear the Bolger camp are confident of a win today with On The Fringe

I was also told weeks ago (I posted it here) to back it for the Foxhunters.

If winning today odds will surely shorten for Cheltenham.

Francie Barrett

On The Fringe looks very skinny now. Remember Tammys Hill was very unlucky LTO, it made a few mistakes and lunged left at the last. With even worse ground, I can see it overturning the favourite.

Colonel Sanders

Christ, just noticed Bet365 (briefly) went 8/1 Baily Green yesterday

handsfree

Francie Barrett wrote: »

On The Fringe looks very skinny now. Remember Tammys Hill was very unlucky LTO, it made a few mistakes and lunged left at the last. With even worse ground, I can see it overturning the favourite.

would you give Pandorama a chance? He's the horse that has achieved the most?

Francie Barrett

handsfree wrote: »

would you give Pandorama a chance? He's the horse that has achieved the most?

Nope, generally these declining chasers disappoint in hunter chases.

ste2010

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Christ, just noticed Bet365 (briefly) went 8/1 Baily Green yesterday

As good as that price was and even still is I would purposely avoid it . It's obvious he's out for a fitness spin for Cheltenham and if it comes down to a battle I can see instructions being to make sure the race doesn't leave it's mark. That would also turn me off First Lieutenant. Pn another note I would still head to the Ryanair with FL. he could win it this year

Francie Barrett

Organising a bus from galway here, just got a tip for Vigil at the last from a usually good source. Good luck all.

Themonkey

im a big fan of On the fringe but i really like quel esprit today at 7 to 2 showed there was still some spark left when winning its point easily last month and i think its a smashing bet today choo choo

BumperD

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

What do people make of the Hennesy?

Last Instalment is quite weak & listening to Fenton during the week he seems to think he'll come on for it & Cheltenham is priority number 1. First Lieutenant must have every chance, I love Tidal Bay, he's 13 but judged on the Welsh National is still going strong. Nicholls is a genius at keeping these old horses sweet & running well

Not so sure last years staying novices are all that hot so I think Lyreen Legend isn't a great price at all

Trappy old contest, I'll settle for Last Instalment running well

Tidal Bay for me but I'm not having a bet in the race.

Bangor Billy

Themonkey wrote: »

im a big fan of On the fringe but i really like quel esprit today at 7 to 2 showed there was still some spark left when winning its point easily last month and i think its a smashing bet today choo choo

Told Quel Esprit didn't school well at Punchestown and the price drift seems to reflect that.

jimjamcos

Judging by the market, looks like Last Instalment will need the run alright, but would still expect him to rattle them and enhance his GC prospects. Not a betting proposition but trip & ground are perfect for him today. Have put Tidal Bay in a small yankee with Plinth, Carlingford Lough and On The Fringe for interest though.

Tidal Bay: C&D winner. Track & going will suit. Perfect jockey onboard and a stronger stayer than First Lieutenant.

Plinth: Jumping on the Urban bandwagon here. I'd find it hard to split him and the fav though myself. Both have claims on their previous clash.

Carlingford Lough: Unstylish grinder but looks to be underrated today. Was unlucky enough over same trip against Don Cossack on GY two runs back at Fairyhouse and, while a thorough stayer, should go close on today's soft-heavy ground. Ballycasey is all hype as of yet. CL's beating of Morning Assembly (had previously beaten both Don Cossack and Ballycasey) is the best in the formbook imo.

On The Fringe: Following the word on here.

UrbanSea

Back a horse on PP messenger and if he wins today and Cheltenham they will double today's winnings

Away from Plinth Plinth Plinth Docofthebay has been given a real chance by the handicapper at Southwell at 14s

superfurry1

Like the look of Clara mcd loud 12-1 in second at leopards town condon has won before on her if you can forgive last run seems a nice price

UrbanSea

That lad from Timeform is what one would call a pain in the rectum

BumperD

The market points to a big run from Vigil. Very heavily punted this morning.

ste2010

Mick Fitz is an absolute degenerate. He thinks the moriarty is over 3m...wtf

carpothepunk

Vigil, plinth, tullow tank, don Cossack, on the fringe. Right bet on plinth plinth plinth during the week and think the tullow tank will do a job on vautour. Backed him for march a couple times already.

BumperD

Matt Chapman is funny.

UrbanSea

Had another little dabble on Sir Plinth for the Triumph at 14s

BumperD

Fingal Bay another to keep an eye on in Exeter for his comeback. Really classy a couple yrs back, non runner a week or so ago, I'd like to see a good run today to put him spot on for Cheltenham.

UrbanSea

I still cannot believe there is someone stupid enough that has had 19 quid already bet on Plinth at 1.08. Unbelievable

UrbanSea

Showed the replay of the day he beat Ivan Grozny there. He didn't half make a hash of the last. Would have won comfortably if he didn't do that think he was going away at the last

Howjoe1

Ivan to put Plinth in his place.

NaiveMelodies

Joanna Morgan's team have accidentally brought the wrong horse to the races for the mares' handicap hurdle at 1.45, so News Show, who is still at home in Meath, will not be running.
That race is now down to 12 runners.
By Jessica Lamb, live from Leopardstown (IRE) 11 mins ago

HAHAHA!

UrbanSea

Plinth very weak

Colonel Sanders

To my untrained eye Ivan looks very well here. Wylie's missus looks like she's been trained for today & today only

BumperD

BumperD wrote: »

Going for 2 tomorrow. I'm not sure why Guitar Pete is the price he is, he has the best experience in the field and is a better jumper than the 2 market leaders imo. His form is solid (bagged a Gr 2 lto by 7L). The race Plinth won was visually good, but the form has not worked out brilliantly, other than for Ivan Grozny (I can already sense Colonel & Urban heading my direction with flaming torches and a couple of pitchforks after me dissing the Plinth Plinth Plinth). Guitar Pete represents trainer who won this race last year and I think he's a cracking bet 13/2.

Whatever the hype about lockstockandbarrell, I'm going with Vigil in the last. The horse that beat him getting weight was snapped up during the week by JP - Windsor Park destroyed a decent looking field a couple of weeks back over the course for this trainer after a couple of seconds. I wouldn't be surprised if this fella is primed for a big run & I guess the market will prove a good guide tomorrow. 11/2 looks value.

2 singles & an ew double for me.

Form beats hype. Now the sweat...

UrbanSea

It's disappointing if Guitar Pete is the best juvenile we have

carpothepunk

Plinth weak as anything on the blue and on course there. Made plenty mistakes. Ah well.

UrbanSea

Looked as if Plinth never jumped a hurdle in his life

BumperD

UrbanSea wrote: »

It's disappointing if Guitar Pete is the best juvenile we have

I think your under estimating his ability.

ste2010

The Triumph is broughtons to lose

UrbanSea

BumperD wrote: »

I think your under estimating his ability.

He is a nice horse but his form isn't outstanding. He was readily beaten by Royal Irish Huzzar and he'd do well to place in a Triumph

BumperD

UrbanSea wrote: »

He is a nice horse but his form isn't outstanding. He was readily beaten by Royal Irish Huzzar and he'd do well to place in a Triumph

I'd always forgive a horse one run. Might have had an off day travelling over. Rest of his form is very solid. You don't win Grd 1's like that unless your very good. I must get a look at broughton's last race as the form ties in there.

UrbanSea

In fairness he was beaten down at Gowran too, it wasn't a bad run at Cheltenham he was beaten no excuses, he only went to England not America. A nice horse but just disappointing if he is the best we have

jimjamcos

BumperD wrote: »

Form beats hype. Now the sweat...

Well done but, in fairness, how can you say form beat hype? Guitar Pete's form was hardly anything special given that he was well beaten early in season at Cheltenham by Royal Irish Hussar who subsequently got trounced by Fox Norton and Broughton. He beat little at Christmas too given that Analifet was pulled up.

BorneTobyWilde

Good As Gold 12-1 ew 1.45
The Tullow Tank 1-1 2.15
Don Cossack 11-8 2.45

ste2010

For the record..broughtons first run over hurdles was when he was beaten by fox norton. he was out for a spin and never put into the race..watch the replay..after I watched that race there were ridiculous prices available in the 50's if I can recall...broughton is serious and I think he might the one break the ferguson /Cheltenham record..laughing at 25's anyway

BumperD

UrbanSea wrote: »

In fairness he was beaten down at Gowran too, it wasn't a bad run at Cheltenham he was beaten no excuses, he only went to England not America. A nice horse but just disappointing if he is the best we have

He idled. Think visor was applied after Gowran? I've no doubt that trip to the uk will serve him well experience wise. Not sure he's the best 4yr old (plenty of UK ones to take him on with, including that one that won on trials day, I forget his name)

BorneTobyWilde

Star of Aragon 25-1 ew 3.15
Texas Jack 16-1 ew 3.50
Quel Esprit 4-1 4.20
Vigil 9-4 4.50

BumperD

jimjamcos wrote: »

Well done but, in fairness, how can you say form beat hype? Guitar Pete's form was hardly anything special given that he was well beaten early in season at Cheltenham by Royal Irish Hussar who subsequently got trounced by Fox Norton and Broughton. He beat little at Christmas too given that Analifet was pulled up.

Plinth won a maiden hurdle, clattering a couple of them and went into the race with a huge reputation. I would describe that as hype.

NaiveMelodies

BumperD wrote: »

Plinth won a maiden hurdle, clattering a couple of them and went into the race with a huge reputation. I would describe that as hype.

Yes agreed. It was clearly and obviously a case of form over potentially very good unexposed types.

UrbanSea

I think what Jim meant is that he may have had the form, but the gelding is below top class and it wasn't top form he was bringing in. The horse is clearly improving but he was gifted a gr.2 when Analifet was pulled up, and that race will prove to be a poor gr.1 in all probability