Grand National 2014

Gringo180

Any fancies as of yet lads? One that is catching my eye so far in the betting is Walkon but would like to see him run in the Haydock trial in a few weeks time before I really commit to him. I see Tidal Bay will run, as much as I like the horse I honestly cannot see him winning with the way he likes to be held up he could run into serious traffic problems and be brought down.

kiers47

If Long Run gets a mid 150s rating for it I would think he'd have a fair chance granted he will be over bet.
There probably wouldn't be a dry eye in the place were Tidal Bay to win and it will be interesting to see how the weight end up.
Not to much interest in analyzing it myself until the weights are released really.

Gringo180

kiers47 wrote: »

If Long Run gets a mid 150s rating for it I would think he'd have a fair chance granted he will be over bet.
There probably wouldn't be a dry eye in the place were Tidal Bay to win and it will be interesting to see how the weight end up.
Not to much interest in analyzing it myself until the weights are released really.

I think I would shed a tear myself if Tidal Bay won it, what a servant he has been. If only Nicholls had him earlier in his career he may have had a Gold Cup to his name. Would love to see him win it but he will be carrying far too much weight plus I dont think a 13 year old has ever won it.

Bangor Billy

Can't be bothered looking it up to check but I think Seargeant Murphy might have been the last 13 year old to win it in the 1920's.

Dr. Bre

would fancy trio d'alene if he has good weight. won over the fences before. cappa bleu not here this year. any idea why ? hes done me proud last few years

madmoose

Monbeg dude im looking at

longshotvalue

I have mr moonshine at 230 on betfair along with Shackalaka whatever his name is at 70, and id be happy with those at the moment.

tonic wine

I thought soll ran a very good race last year, and should get in again this year on a nice low weight. Best odds 50/1

finbarrk

I backed Tidal Bay today at 25/1. Odds are against him but he is a class animal.

the cat burglar

Raz de maree of dessie Hughes down to run this Sunday, a certain stayer and great jumper. 170/1 on betfair.

Dr. Bre

was looking thru the fairyhouse results today and saw lion na bearnai won. hes entered for the national. was he impressive? former irish national winner also

Francie Barrett

Worth keeping an eye on this tomorrow as a number of entries will be scratched.

Seabass took a bit of a pasting in the antepost markets after a very poor run which saw in finishing last, unable to outstay fellow National entrant, Bog Warrior. This surely has no hope of staying the distance.

Bog Warrior ran a bit of a strange race and made a few mistakes. It seemed to jump left-handed too and you'd think it would go better the other way around at Aintree. Form suggests otherwise though. If it runs, it's surely too quirky to win.

Willie Mullins has seemed to suggest that On His Own will be targeted at Punchestown, which certainly makes sense given the race it had last week. You'd think Boston Bob will be the main Mullins threat for the National, although you couldn't really be backing an unknown quantity like that.

For me, the best bet so far would have to be Monbeg Dude at 25/1. Seems to go over both good and bad ground, has a trainer that has won the national and knows how to prepare a horse for the race, quite nicely handicapped when compared to the field, it has a good chasing pedigree and we know it'll stay. For me, the fact that it's fairly lightly raced and hasn't been put through a national before is a positive. For me, it'll be there or thereabouts come race day.

mountai

I think that Big Shu carrying 15lbs less than at Cheltenham is a stand out bet. Wasn't given a hard race and PP have him up at 25s. 40/I with Ladbrokes , have PPs taken connection money??

Deco99

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Worth keeping an eye on this tomorrow as a number of entries will be scratched.

Seabass took a bit of a pasting in the antepost markets after a very poor run which saw in finishing last, unable to outstay fellow National entrant, Bog Warrior. This surely has no hope of staying the distance.

Bog Warrior ran a bit of a strange race and made a few mistakes. It seemed to jump left-handed too and you'd think it would go better the other way around at Aintree. Form suggests otherwise though. If it runs, it's surely too quirky to win.

Willie Mullins has seemed to suggest that On His Own will be targeted at Punchestown, which certainly makes sense given the race it had last week. You'd think Boston Bob will be the main Mullins threat for the National, although you couldn't really be backing an unknown quantity like that.

For me, the best bet so far would have to be Monbeg Dude at 25/1. Seems to go over both good and bad ground, has a trainer that has won the national and knows how to prepare a horse for the race, quite nicely handicapped when compared to the field, it has a good chasing pedigree and we know it'll stay. For me, the fact that it's fairly lightly raced and hasn't been put through a national before is a positive. For me, it'll be there or thereabouts come race day.

Is this the same monbeg dude that was very poor in the grand national trial a few weeks ago?

I liked the look of Storm Survivor who finished 2nd that day, currently @66/1 is he likely to get entry? how would i go about finding that out?

Johner

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Bog Warrior ran a bit of a strange race and made a few mistakes. It seemed to jump left-handed too and you'd think it would go better the other way around at Aintree. Form suggests otherwise though. If it runs, it's surely too quirky to win.

It was be an amazing achievement if Bog Warrior made it round Aintree.

Bangor Billy

Deco99 wrote: »

Is this the same monbeg dude that was very poor in the grand national trial a few weeks ago?

I liked the look of Storm Survivor who finished 2nd that day, currently @66/1 is he likely to get entry? how would i go about finding that out?

Storm Survivor is entered. Well down the handicap though so might not get in. As Francie said we will know more tomorrow after the latest elimination stage.

Johner

Has no chance of getting in off 9-6.

Nulty

Johner wrote: »

Has no chance of getting in off 9-6.

Depends on what number in the entries he is but it's been a few years since one got in out of the handicap. 9-6 ha no chance

Colonel Sanders

73 left in

Francie Barrett

mountai wrote: »

I think that Big Shu carrying 15lbs less than at Cheltenham is a stand out bet. Wasn't given a hard race and PP have him up at 25s. 40/I with Ladbrokes , have PPs taken connection money??

Horse will stay forever and jump well, but if you're going to assume that the ground continues to dry out then there will be a few on the day that are just too quick for it.

sonnky

Will Saint Are get in lads? He's 54th on the list now, loves Aintree.

Francie Barrett

Ted Walsh must not have been too pleased with Seabass either, because it has been scratched.

Bangor Billy

Saw posted on another site that Seabass strained a tendon yesterday.

BumperD

Bangor Billy wrote: »

Saw posted on another site that Seabass strained a tendon yesterday.

He's out. On RP website.

Nulty

No need to worry lads, Sunnyhillboy will put things right this year, only worry is that he has gone sour after last years poor performance

Colonel Sanders

Just noticed, bet365 are NRNB on The Grand National

kfallon

Can't believe they took On His Own out, would have been the handicap good thing and I would finally have got the GN win out of him

Colonel Sanders

Mossey Joe swerves the National, runs in the Foxhunters instead

ForeverYoung90

Balthazar king may be in the mix?

pugw

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Balthazar king may be in the mix?

I hope so! He ran a good race in defeat last year but was in the mix the whole way around! Will he get a few pound extra since his win at Cheltenham! He was out on his feet coming to the line there and the GN is a further trip again! Great horse IMO has won me a nice few pound

Colonel Sanders

Victor Chandler appear to be paying 6 places in their ante post market

Good few other paying 5

Nulty

Some I'm interested in:

Alvarado - jumping problems, not much worse than Monbegs though.

Last Time D'Albain - good sighter in the Topham last year

Pineau De Re - better hurdler than chaser but ran a better race in the pertemps this year than before.

Big Shu - this could be the main target instead of the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Trainer is keen providing the ground is suitable

Same Difference - looks a national type but may be a year too soon.

The rainbow Hunter - unlucky to come down last year when squeezed out at the canal turn. I hate when a jockey tries to go up the inside there!

mountai

Big Shu - this could be the main target instead of the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Trainer is keen providing the ground is suitable

I believe this to be the case, having seen him interviewed on the run up to Cheltenham.

Francie Barrett

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Mossey Joe swerves the National, runs in the Foxhunters instead

Delighted. Couldn't see how this horse could win a Grand National. The Foxhunter is a different kettle of fish. It looks far too classy not to win it.

kksaints

Nulty wrote: »

Some I'm interested in:

Alvarado - jumping problems, not much worse than Monbegs though.

Last Time D'Albain - good sighter in the Topham last year

Pineau De Re - better hurdler than chaser but ran a better race in the pertemps this year than before.

Big Shu - this could be the main target instead of the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Trainer is keen providing the ground is suitable

Same Difference - looks a national type but may be a year too soon.

The rainbow Hunter - unlucky to come down last year when squeezed out at the canal turn. I hate when a jockey tries to go up the inside there!

I'd be a fan of this horse but I'd be wary of backing him for the Grand National. Hes a dodgy jumper and doesnt travel particularly well in his races, always has to be scrubbed up after a litlle while. Most horses who win the Grand National tend to travel smoothly during the race. I would be much more likely to back him in the Scottish National or the old Whitbread at Sandown.

unitedrover

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Mossey Joe swerves the National, runs in the Foxhunters instead

Unfortunately I happened to back Mossey Joe ( only small money) with PP at 1pm today. I definitely wouldn't have done him if I read today's RP. Do I have any comeback re a refund because at that particular time he seemed to have the race completely ruled out.

Nulty

kksaints wrote: »

I'd be a fan of this horse but I'd be wary of backing him for the Grand National. Hes a dodgy jumper and doesnt travel particularly well in his races, always has to be scrubbed up after a litlle while. Most horses who win the Grand National tend to travel smoothly during the race. I would be much more likely to back him in the Scottish National or the old Whitbread at Sandown.

Well he's going to Aintree. He'd be at the bottom of my list though. None of the ones I've mentioned there are making me run to the bookies.

Deccar

Who will the Gold Cup winning jockey, Davy Russell ride?

Deco99

Deccar wrote: »

Who will the Gold Cup winning jockey, Davy Russell ride?

Never heard of him, is he new?

Colonel Sanders

Deccar wrote: »

Who will the Gold Cup winning jockey, Davy Russell ride?

Gigginstown have at least one left in (Quito De La Roque) so possibly their representative?

kiers47

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Gigginstown have at least one left in (Quito De La Roque) so possibly their representative?

He came over to Ayr(I think it was for a spin on Burton Port but he ran no sort of race. So I thought he might be riding him but not sure really.

shy-tall-knight

Anyone fancy Raz de Maree?
Was a progressive handicapper before injury intervened and he missed a year. Some signs of a revival at Downroyal last time when not really bullied to go after Yes Tom. Obviously that was a poor race but offers something to work with and I doubt they wanted to risk a penalty for the national just to win a mickey mouse race for 9k. Also he probably needed the run, why else run him again so quick after pulling up early in Naas a week before. Dessie has hit the crossbar in this with the likes of Black Apalachi and Rare Bob and though it's a bit of a cliche, he's firmly training Raz de Maree for one day. Also I think there are reasonable excuses for some poor runs this term and particularly that penultimate run in Naas-by all accounts he's not suited to big weights or heavy ground(look up Hughes' quotes after his wins on irishracing.com)
Loves good ground, big fields, is a sound jumper and a thorough stayer, worse 50/1 shots in this in my book.

Colonel Sanders

No penalties after publication of the weights

shy-tall-knight

Well there's my bubble burst...ah feck it, he'll probably still be one of my many darts in this

oldfella

Anyone fancy Raz de Maree?
Was a progressive handicapper before injury intervened and he missed a year. Some signs of a revival at Downroyal last time when not really bullied to go after Yes Tom. Obviously that was a poor race but offers something to work with and I doubt they wanted to risk a penalty for the national just to win a mickey mouse race for 9k. Also he probably needed the run, why else run him again so quick after pulling up early in Naas a week before. Dessie has hit the crossbar in this with the likes of Black Apalachi and Rare Bob and though it's a bit of a cliche, he's firmly training Raz de Maree for one day. Also I think there are reasonable excuses for some poor runs this term and particularly that penultimate run in Naas-by all accounts he's not suited to big weights or heavy ground(look up Hughes' quotes after his wins on irishracing.com)
Loves good ground, big fields, is a sound jumper and a thorough stayer, worse 50/1 shots in this in my book.

think he could run well also...i also like chance du roy at 40/1 ..has course form......

Nulty

I can only see 3 likely non runners:

8 Bog Warrior
9 Mossey Joe
29 Mountainous

Bets so far:

4pt Sunnyhillboy @ 46
1pt Last Time D'Albain @ 40 nrnb
1pt Alvarado @ 40 nrnb

Sadly tempted by Walkon who has a good record at the course, second in last years Topham and winning a grade 1 hurdle on the Mildmay. I know Aidan has great prices on Mr Moonshine and I'm coming round to taking his current price of 50s on the exchanges. ran a good race in the Becher this season and probably has enough on pedigree to go close, weight is an issue though. Full brother to Double Ross by the way

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

I can only see 3 likely non runners:

8 Bog Warrior
9 Mossey Joe
29 Mountainous

Bets so far:

4pt Sunnyhillboy @ 46
1pt Last Time D'Albain @ 40 nrnb
1pt Alvarado @ 40 nrnb

Sadly tempted by Walkon who has a good record at the course, second in last years Topham and winning a grade 1 hurdle on the Mildmay. I know Aidan has great prices on Mr Moonshine and I'm coming round to taking his current price of 50s on the exchanges. ran a good race in the Becher this season and probably has enough on pedigree to go close, weight is an issue though. Full brother to Double Ross by the way

I have over 200/1 on Mr Moonshine, but the trainer has been silly letting it win twice before the weights were out, it should really have 6-7 lbs less and would still get in.. Still in this race its more about having a raceable weight and travelling well and jumping which he did last time, im not writing him off yet. I love the look of Burton Port after his last run, he is really on a nice mark and suddenly came to life last time out, after the weights were published which augers well.. I wouldnt swap the 50/1 about him..

Francie Barrett

Storm Survivor out tomorrow at Newbury.

Colonel Sanders

aidankkk wrote: »

I love the look of Burton Port after his last run, he is really on a nice mark and suddenly came to life last time out, after the weights were published which augers well.. I wouldnt swap the 50/1 about him..

Don't mention the war

Hills were slow to cut it after, added to bet slip. Deposited funds. Tried to back it got the dreaed "price has changed" warning

longshotvalue

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Don't mention the war

Hills were slow to cut it after, added to bet slip. Deposited funds. Tried to back it got the dreaed "price has changed" warning

Racebets were even slower, i had time to make an account deposit and then back it at 50/1.. .. All he has to do now is jump all those fences not get brought down and stay over 4 miles..

Colonel Sanders

Pineau De Re blue across the board, has some tipster out him up?

Sunnyhillboy is shortening daily too.

Only two weeks to go now!