Irish property roulette

hedgehog2

Are you buying into this property bubble that the media are talking up.
Independent had an advert on the radio "how much is your house worth"this Sunday in the independent property supplement find out.
Estate agents holding back properties ,sellers holding out for higher prices using same tactic.
Its all happening over again all be it slowly but I see the next 2-5 yrs turning into another property bubble.
Anyone else think what is wrong with the Irish and property bubbles;have we not learnt from the mistakes of the past.

debabyjesus

Nows the time to buy so! Sur prices can only go up!

kneemos

hedgehog2 wrote: »

Are you buying into this property bubble that the media are talking up.
Independent had an advert on the radio "how much is your house worth"this Sunday in the independent property supplement find out.
Estate agents holding back properties ,sellers holding out for higher prices using same tactic.
Its all happening over again all be it slowly but I see the next 2-5 yrs turning into another property bubble.
Anyone else think what is wrong with the Irish and property bubbles;have we not learnt from the mistakes of the past.

Just people trying make a buck.

Sir Arthur Daley

Time to grease up the cement mixer

dxhound2005

hedgehog2 wrote: »

Are you buying into this property bubble that the media are talking up.
Independent had an advert on the radio "how much is your house worth"this Sunday in the independent property supplement find out.
Estate agents holding back properties ,sellers holding out for higher prices using same tactic.
Its all happening over again all be it slowly but I see the next 2-5 yrs turning into another property bubble.
Anyone else think what is wrong with the Irish and property bubbles;have we not learnt from the mistakes of the past.

Have we not learnt? I hope you are not another one of these AH types that puts everyone in the country in the same category whenever something is being discussed. Ireland is greedy, the Irish are obedient etc etc.

Usually they think that other people are not as smart as them as well.

MadsL

Sunday Supplements in Housing Market Boosting Shocker!

Phoebas

hedgehog2 wrote: »

Are you buying into this property bubble that the media are talking up.
Independent had an advert on the radio "how much is your house worth"this Sunday in the independent property supplement find out.
Estate agents holding back properties ,sellers holding out for higher prices using same tactic.
Its all happening over again all be it slowly but I see the next 2-5 yrs turning into another property bubble.
Anyone else think what is wrong with the Irish and property bubbles;have we not learnt from the mistakes of the past.

So you recommend that we all get in now?

whupdedo

It's Dublin and it's commuter surroundings their talking about, the rest of the country is a long way from being anywhere near house prices increasing again, prices will rise as demand increases and will continue to do so as long as banks and estate agents hold the trump card and are not regulated accordingly

dxhound2005

whupdedo wrote: »

It's Dublin and it's commuter surroundings their talking about, the rest of the country is a long way from being anywhere near house prices increasing again, prices will rise as demand increases and will continue to do so as long as banks and estate agents hold the trump card and are not regulated accordingly

So if the banks and estate agents were regulated a different way this would stop prices rising as demand increases? Or would cause prices to fall? Do you want the banks regulated to be forced to lend out more or lend out less at present?

snubbleste

• Rent is dead money
• They're not making any more land
• If you don't get on the ladder now you never will
• Banks are tightening lending criteria
• You need a pension
  etc

earlyevening

debabyjesus wrote: »

Nows the time to buy so! Sur prices can only go up!

"Ooh, mama! This is finally, really happening. After years of disappointment with get-rich-quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme...and quick!"

drunkmonkey

They were talking up "Starter Homes" in the indo, that itself should be a crime. A lot of younger people bought apartments to start and got burned, rent an apartment but buy a home.

dxhound2005

I think "we" have learnt the lesson from the mistakes of the past. All is well.

Ruu

You understand that there are more forums than After Hours? Moved.

whupdedo

dxhound2005 wrote: »

So if the banks and estate agents were regulated a different way this would stop prices rising as demand increases? Or would cause prices to fall? Do you want the banks regulated to be forced to lend out more or lend out less at present?

In short, if the banks lend money on the strength of rising property prices as they did a decade ago and less ,well then we're going for the same boom, bust we are going through now.
Banks were lending to people who just couldn't afford to pay it back, where is the regulation to stop all this happening again, if only you had some way of regulating the banks, maybe a regulator perhaps ? I'm being facetious by the way, we all know how the regulator carried out his duties in the past
We need banks to lend not more or less, but responsibly, not 100/110% mortgages to young people buying their first home, also not to people who buy investment property with no collateral other than the fact it will pay for itself on the rent alone.
House prices will rise and fall due to demand, but this demand should be driven by genuine home buyers and property investors, not every dick and Mary out to make a killing in the property market

gaius c

hedgehog2 wrote: »

Are you buying into this property bubble that the media are talking up.
Independent had an advert on the radio "how much is your house worth"this Sunday in the independent property supplement find out.
Estate agents holding back properties ,sellers holding out for higher prices using same tactic.
Its all happening over again all be it slowly but I see the next 2-5 yrs turning into another property bubble.
Anyone else think what is wrong with the Irish and property bubbles;have we not learnt from the mistakes of the past.

There's no credit because the banks are FUBAR'd so assuming there is a bubble, it certainly won't last as long as five years.

Main factor is that market mobility is broken and a good chunk of houses for sale are not really for sale. Tiny volume of houses for sale (relative to size of overall market) causing a spike in prices. Similar to the volatility in AIB share price.

chopper6

The Govt line is,predictably that it's important to have a strong construction industry once again. No doubt because stamp duty is a handy way to make money in taxes.

There are certain voices calling now for more building of houses and no mention of what's to happen to the thousands of vacant or negative equity apartments that have already been built.

ardmacha

chopper6 wrote: »

The Govt line is,predictably that it's important to have a strong construction industry once again. No doubt because stamp duty is a handy way to make money in taxes.

There are certain voices calling now for more building of houses and no mention of what's to happen to the thousands of vacant or negative equity apartments that have already been built.

Construction has been below its long term average and this isn't desirable either. If construction resumes it should not be of buildings that are in oversupply, but of building types that are in demand. There may be a no demand for pokey apartments, but there may be a demand for large duplexes or semi-D houses.

Stamp duty is now modest, but there will be savings to the public purse of bringing people off the dole.

_Kaiser_

I was watching Sky on Saturday afternoon and every ad break contained a promo for the return of the Sunday Times' property supplement.

That plus the recent hype around the bubble in South Dublin and even some of the posts here on our own Accommodation & Property forum would have you believe the Good Times are definitely back. I fully expect the phrase "Get on the property ladder" to make a return this year too!

All this against the backdrop of still massive unemployment, high taxation (with the farcical mess that is Irish Water imminent as well), and banks not lending of course.

We haven't learned a thing IMO. I will say one thing though - if the days of "free money" DO return, this time I'll be taking everything they offer as the one thing *I* learned is that not overextending yourself and "going mad" only means you'll be left out in the cold and STILL having to pay for the mistakes/choices of others when it all goes wrong anyway!

chopper6

ardmacha wrote: »

Construction has been below its long term average and this isn't desirable either. If construction resumes it should not be of buildings that are in oversupply, but of building types that are in demand. There may be a no demand for pokey apartments, but there may be a demand for large duplexes or semi-D houses.

Stamp duty is now modest, but there will be savings to the public purse of bringing people off the dole.

Yeah but where are all these properties going to be built?

This will require more rezoning and opens up the way for more planning corruption to say nothing of thenegative impact on what remains of our countryside.

We cant just keep building and building it needs a balance and it should at least be done with some sort of coherent plan.

Idbatterim

There are certain voices calling now for more building of houses and no mention of what's to happen to the thousands of vacant or negative equity apartments that have already been built.

These are either in areas nobody wants to be in OR havent been completed for reasons that have nothing to do poor location or lack of demand, i.e. a few of the big blocks in wyckham place, Dundrum. Also yes construction was way too big as a % of gdp, but is too low now.

If construction resumes it should not be of buildings that are in oversupply, but of building types that are in demand.

true, the problem is, nearly all the land where prices are rising again quickly are totally developed, there is very little scope for any new development.

andrew

Hard to see how there can be a housing bubble given this graph.

housing loans.png

Idbatterim

Hard to see how there can be a housing bubble given this graph.

housing loans.png

Its very simple, virtually no supply, high demand in SOCODU. It is that simple. So often we are seeing stats that would suggest prices shouldnt or wont rise, yet they are and have been for quite some time. Honestly I would prefer if we didnt get back to the stage of people having to shoulder themselves with massive debt to put a roof over their head BUT I think it has become very populist now to call it "a dead cat bounce" "its another bubble" etc etc etc, from people who have now educated themselves a bit on the issue, but their very limited understanding of it, makes them come across as ignorant. Nobody will disagree with the scandalous marginal rate of tax, water tax, budget cuts, property tax, but this has been the case for most of those points, for several years now, prices have been rising for the past 18 months in SOCOCU regardless of these, I am well past the point of pointing out reasons I would expect prices to continue falling, like I did on this forum maybe 2-3 years ago, the fact is, I change my mind when the facts change...

Hard to see how there can be a housing bubble given this graph.

housing loans.png

The below hits the nail on the head IMO, we are pretty much all talking about Dublin or certain parts of it. A quote from the below link. You just cant make blanket generalisations anymore.

http://propertypad.ie/2012/05/08/the-irish-property-market-where-to-from-here/

"However, dare I say, discussing the trough of the Irish market at this point is somewhat futile as we don’t have a homogeneous market. We have 26 different counties with 26 different employment structures, 26 different demand and supply dynamics and as such we will have at a minimum 26 different troughs."

chopper6

Idbatterim wrote: »

Its very simple, virtually no supply, high demand in SOCODU. It is that simple. So often we are seeing stats that would suggest prices shouldnt or wont rise, yet they are and have been for quite some time. Honestly I would prefer if we didnt get back to the stage of people having to shoulder themselves with massive debt to put a roof over their head BUT I think it has become very populist now to call it "a dead cat bounce" "its another bubble" etc etc etc, from people who have now educated themselves a bit on the issue, but their very limited understanding of it, makes them come across as ignorant. Nobody will disagree with the scandalous marginal rate of tax, water tax, budget cuts, property tax, but this has been the case for most of those points, for several years now, prices have been rising for the past 18 months in SOCOCU regardless of these, I am well past the point of pointing out reasons I would expect prices to continue falling, like I did on this forum maybe 2-3 years ago, the fact is, I change my mind when the facts change...

The below hits the nail on the head IMO, we are pretty much all talking about Dublin or certain parts of it. A quote from the below link. You just cant make blanket generalisations anymore.

http://propertypad.ie/2012/05/08/the-irish-property-market-where-to-from-here/

"However, dare I say, discussing the trough of the Irish market at this point is somewhat futile as we don’t have a homogeneous market. We have 26 different counties with 26 different employment structures, 26 different demand and supply dynamics and as such we will have at a minimum 26 different troughs."

But would not abubble in dublin alone be signficant,and damaging?

Irish Steve

As I look at all the different comment, the only thing I will say is that until my property can be sold for at least the cost of rebuilding it, there's still a problem with the property market.

Way too many of the wrong sorts of properties were built. Too many cramped apartments with poor access, and inadequate services around them. An apartment with a massive set of stairs to get up to it is only suitable for young singles or couples, once children are in the scenario, or for older adults, that same set of stairs becomes a nightmare, especially if the one allocated parking space is half a sabbath's journey away, and there's no services within walking distance, and the nearest schools are 20 minutes drive in the wrong direction from work.

Houses that are the right size for families, or for older adults, if they are in the middle of nowhere, with no shops, or other services, and no public transport, are limited in their suitability, not everyone has a driving licence, or can afford to run 2 cars, and what do a retired couple who are faced with the possibility of having no transport other than public transport or a taxi do? That means that some of the properties that are at present unoccupied may well remain unoccupied for ever, as they should never have been built where they were.

That's why SOCODU is popular, if nothing else, it does have public transport, and access to services, in a way that many other areas don't. It's only in the last few months that Bus Eireann have decided that a bus from Ashbourne to Drogheda would be a good idea, despite the fact that Drogheda is deemed to be the local town for hospital services.

A bubble in Dublin will just serve to do what it did before, and encourage people to look further out, into the commuter belt that has already become well established, for exactly the same reasons as it will become popular again, when people decide that parts of Dublin can't be justified, they will look further afield. Ideally, the Government would also be looking to encourage industry and employment in those areas, to reduce the numbers commuting, but I can't see that happening any time soon.

We bought in Ashbourne in 1989, because I wasn't prepared to pay stupid money for a shoebox in SOCODU, which is where we were renting, and we got a family size house, with a family size garden, for less than we'd have paid for a small unit in Galloping Green in Stillorgan, which had a garden that wasn't much bigger than the space needed to fit a rotary clothes drier in to it, At that time, the local services were dire, very few buses, no supermarkets worth talking about, and very few local jobs, or schools. That has changed over time, and the town is now a much better place to live in than it was.

The SOCODU bubble will happen again if people let it, if they deem being in SOCODU so important, they won't care that better value is available near by. If that is the case, then they only have themselves to blame if the bubble bursts again before too long.

It is unlikely to get too big in the first place, the demographics are not the same any more, the banks don't have the bottomless money pit to lend, the rules on lending are more restrictive, and the numbers of properties are not available like they were.

Frank Lee Midere

As the loans show there is no credit bubble in Dublin. Instead people with cash bought significant amount of housing . Why? Because rents have gone up, and Internet rates have fallen to negligible levels. When interest rates pop back up - sooner than people think - that will collapse again.

chopper6

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

As the loans show there is no credit bubble in Dublin. Instead people with cash bought significant amount of housing . Why? Because rents have gone up, and Internet rates have fallen to negligible levels. When interest rates pop back up - sooner than people think - that will collapse again.

Interest rates can fly up very quickly...i have an ECB tracker and as a banker friend says its unlikeley the rates will fall below thier current 1% so they can only go up basically.

I'm paying an extra chunk off my mortage every month so as to get into the principal rather than just the interest,and i'm doing it now while rates are low.

gaius c

chopper6 wrote: »

Yeah but where are all these properties going to be built?

This will require more rezoning and opens up the way for more planning corruption to say nothing of thenegative impact on what remains of our countryside.

We cant just keep building and building it needs a balance and it should at least be done with some sort of coherent plan.

There's two storey houses a stones throw from O'Connell St and bungalows only a little further out. Everything inside the canals should be 4 stories minimum.

ardmacha wrote: »

Construction has been below its long term average and this isn't desirable either. If construction resumes it should not be of buildings that are in oversupply, but of building types that are in demand. There may be a no demand for pokey apartments, but there may be a demand for large duplexes or semi-D houses.

Stamp duty is now modest, but there will be savings to the public purse of bringing people off the dole.

Why don't we put them to use building stuff that might actually provide some use to society like infrastructure, instead of more frigging apartments in Stepaside?

chopper6

gaius c wrote: »

Why don't we put them to use building stuff that might actually provide some use to society like infrastructure, instead of more frigging apartments in Stepaside?

Because wretchedly built,high density,overpriced aprtments are the bread and butter of developers,landowners and the rest of the gang.

Chazz Michael Michaels

hedgehog2 wrote: »

Are you buying into this property bubble that the media are talking up.
Independent had an advert on the radio "how much is your house worth"this Sunday in the independent property supplement find out.
Estate agents holding back properties ,sellers holding out for higher prices using same tactic.
Its all happening over again all be it slowly but I see the next 2-5 yrs turning into another property bubble.
Anyone else think what is wrong with the Irish and property bubbles;have we not learnt from the mistakes of the past.

Lots of people/foreign investors are demanding property in Dublin. Supply is limited, as construction had collapsed. Our friend Leon Walras explained the rest.

No bubble.

Frank Lee Midere

Chazz Michael Michaels wrote: »

Lots of people/foreign investors are demanding property in Dublin. Supply is limited, as construction had collapsed. Our friend Leon Walras explained the rest.

No bubble.

The foreign investors story is a myth. It's all Irish capital. But it doesn't matter anyway because a rise in interst rates will see cash flee back to bonds. Bubble.

Chazz Michael Michaels

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

The foreign investors story is a myth. It's all Irish capital. But it doesn't matter anyway because a rise in interst rates will see cash flee back to bonds. Bubble.

What utter bollocks. LOL!

Idbatterim

Chazz Michael Michaels

totally off topic, but loving the username LOL

Chazz Michaels and Jimmy MacElroy *are* figure skating.

chopper6

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

The foreign investors story is a myth. It's all Irish capital. But it doesn't matter anyway because a rise in interst rates will see cash flee back to bonds. Bubble.

Thats not true about foreign investors being a myth.


There are lots of auctions with bids arriving from as far away as thailand and russia...cash buyers in many cases.

People abroad with "new" money are using it to purchase irish properties in anticipation of turning a quick buck,enteriing the rental market or laundering dirty money.

Uriel.

gaius c wrote: »

There's two storey houses a stones throw from O'Connell St and bungalows only a little further out. Everything inside the canals should be 4 stories minimum.


Why don't we put them to use building stuff that might actually provide some use to society like infrastructure, instead of more frigging apartments in Stepaside?

Because that costs money. Huge money, that we don't have and has a long return on investment if any.

Frank Lee Midere

Chazz Michael Michaels wrote: »

What utter bollocks. LOL!

Great argument mate. Fantastic.

Frank Lee Midere

chopper6 wrote: »

Thats not true about foreign investors being a myth.


There are lots of auctions with bids arriving from as far away as thailand and russia...cash buyers in many cases.

People abroad with "new" money are using it to purchase irish properties in anticipation of turning a quick buck,enteriing the rental market or laundering dirty money.

Any links on this?

chopper6

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Any links on this?

I'm sure there are,i couldnt be bothered looking for them though.

sarumite

chopper6 wrote: »

I'm sure there are,i couldnt be bothered looking for them though.

If you can't even be bothered looking for a link, then I can't be bothered taking anything you write seriously.

chopper6

sarumite wrote: »

If you can't even be bothered looking for a link, then I can't be bothered taking anything you write seriously.

What do i care what you think?


But here's a link seeing if it's not on the web you dont think it happens :rolleyes:

Scofflaw

chopper6 wrote: »

I'm sure there are,i couldnt be bothered looking for them though.

I can see that you have now provided a link to back up your claims, but your first post is never an acceptable response. If you're going to make claims, stand over them. If you're not going to stand over them, don't make them.

This is not a forum for evidence-free discussion. You are expected to provide evidence for your claims. If you're unwilling to do so, and keep making the claims, access to the forum may well be withdrawn.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Frank Lee Midere

chopper6 wrote: »

What do i care what you think?


But here's a link seeing if it's not on the web you dont think it happens :rolleyes:

That link is for high end commercial property and hotels. And the evidence is one guy. These guys are not buying houses in Foxrock to rent out.

chopper6

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

. These guys are not buying houses in Foxrock to rent out.

No they're not...a house in foxrock would make no sense as a rental property.

The guys i'm talking about ar purchasing whole apartment blocks and unfinished estates as well as plots of development land.

Frank Lee Midere

chopper6 wrote: »

No they're not...a house in foxrock would make no sense as a rental property.

The guys i'm talking about ar purchasing whole apartment blocks and unfinished estates as well as plots of development land.

That would make sense. If it were happening. However since it is family houses in parts of Dublin which have shown the greatest increases and prices for apartments are rock bottom I don't see it.

chopper6

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

That would make sense. If it were happening. However since it is family houses in parts of Dublin which have shown the greatest increases and prices for apartments are rock bottom I don't see it.

Irish well-off people are buying properties like the ones in Foxrock or Dalkey...there may wll be foreign interest in really high end properties,especially for business people based here or in the UK.

The apartments are being bought up precisely because they are so cheap...a savvy investor can make good returns on renatl or could see futiure potential for resale(subject to some improvements at their expense).

RichardAnd

hedgehog2 wrote: »

Are you buying into this property bubble that the media are talking up.
Independent had an advert on the radio "how much is your house worth"this Sunday in the independent property supplement find out.
Estate agents holding back properties ,sellers holding out for higher prices using same tactic.
Its all happening over again all be it slowly but I see the next 2-5 yrs turning into another property bubble.
Anyone else think what is wrong with the Irish and property bubbles;have we not learnt from the mistakes of the past.

The quoted line raises two points, and they will answer the question.

Firstly, there is no "we." Secondly, humans have been repeating the same mistakes for centuries. I see no reason why they would stop now.

creedp

RichardAnd wrote: »

The quoted line raises two points, and they will answer the question.

Firstly, there is no "we." Secondly, humans have been repeating the same mistakes for centuries. I see no reason why they would stop now.

The scale of the probelm will not be repeated so long as banks don't approve mortgage above and beyond what the home owners can reasonably pay.

gaius c

chopper6 wrote: »

Irish well-off people are buying properties like the ones in Foxrock or Dalkey...there may wll be foreign interest in really high end properties,especially for business people based here or in the UK.

The apartments are being bought up precisely because they are so cheap...a savvy investor can make good returns on renatl or could see futiure potential for resale(subject to some improvements at their expense).

You got caught out and are attempting to move the goalposts in order to hide that. You were clearly talking about houses and not commercial property. See your post below.

chopper6 wrote: »

Thats not true about foreign investors being a myth.


There are lots of auctions with bids arriving from as far away as thailand and russia...cash buyers in many cases.

People abroad with "new" money are using it to purchase irish properties in anticipation of turning a quick buck,enteriing the rental market or laundering dirty money.

The properties you allude to in that link you posted, how many of them were sold by auction?

gaius c

Uriel. wrote: »

Because that costs money. Huge money, that we don't have and has a long return on investment if any.

Good thing that Irish residential property is so cheap then!

chopper6

gaius c wrote: »

You got caught out and are attempting to move the goalposts in order to hide that. You were clearly talking about houses and not commercial property. See your post below.


The properties you allude to in that link you posted, how many of them were sold by auction?

Huh?

So i was lying then...what the **** for?

OMD

chopper6 wrote: »

Huh?

So i was lying then...what the **** for?

Of course foreigners are buying residential property in Ireland
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/home-hunters-losing-out-as-chinese-and-russian-investors-buy-up-property-29811190.html

Just as they are buying investment property
http://www.politics.ie/forum/media/219054-whos-buying-ireland-rte-documentary-9-12-13-a.html