Irish Champion Hurdle

boysinblack

The fly seems plenty short enough at 1/2.

But surely his to lose .... ?

Backstreet Moyes

Ye can't see him being beaten here but i expect Our Connor to be closer this time.

What's the story with Un De Sceaux why won't they put him against good horses so we can find out how good he is. Surely this race would have been perfect to find out where he stands before Cheltenham.

kfallon

Un De Sceaux is going to the Red Mills Trial in Gowran next month!

triggerharvey

jezki was very unlucky the last day I have a feeling he might beat the fly the next day

Jayo11780

heading up to it on sunday myself...
Good day's racing in store - I reckon the Fly could be turned over myself.

tipster

the fly will hack up again think our conor might reverse placings with jezki this time

Andalucia

reckon its a repeat of the Xmas hurdle 1-2-3
we won't see the best of Our Conor until March
Dessie going with the softly softly approach - no point pulling the trigger when he won't be 110% ready till March
Hurricane Fly excels around Leopardstown and Jezki wants better ground

jimjamcos

Won't be having a bet but wouldn't be surprised to see OC go very close. Hopefully there's no trouble in running or excuses in general this time round.

Francie Barrett

Thoroughly depressing that were likely to see the same 5 horses contest this race again. Really don't understand why some of the English trainers come over and try for the prize money.

longshotvalue

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Thoroughly depressing that were likely to see the same 5 horses contest this race again. Really don't understand why some of the English trainers come over and try for the prize money.

Because they have no chance of winning for the last few years on soft ground against Hurricane Fly..

paddy no 11

The fly by half a lenght from jezki, OC a lenght back. Hopefully its a clean run race this time.

Dr. Bre

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Thoroughly depressing that were likely to see the same 5 horses contest this race again. Really don't understand why some of the English trainers come over and try for the prize money.

and this is why the fly doesnt get the credit in the uk as much as here cos they look at him winning races with few runners here

Backstreet Moyes

Dr. Bre wrote: »

and this is why the fly doesnt get the credit in the uk as much as here cos they look at him winning races with few runners here

What do you mean the English fear him so much they won't come over and face him but they don't rate him? From my personal experience the English rate him higher than a good few Irish who talk down his achievements.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

mdwexford

Dr. Bre wrote: »

and this is why the fly doesnt get the credit in the uk as much as here cos they look at him winning races with few runners here

The trials in England have few runners also and he gets credit everywhere.

He's a two time Champion Hurdler and a million time Grade 1 winner.

ziggy wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

No, anyone who uses it should be set on fire.

premierstone

mdwexford wrote: »

The trials in England have few runners also and he gets credit everywhere.

He's a two time Champion Hurdler and a million time Grade 1 winner.



No, anyone who uses it should be set on fire.

No way he gets the credit he deserves its beyond a joke at this stage, and as for the nickname, both Patrick and Willie have referred to horse by that name, if its good enough for them its good enough for me

Hon the Fly!

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

No way he gets the credit he deserves its beyond a joke at this stage, and as for the nickname, both Patrick and Willie have referred to horse by that name, if its good enough for them its good enough for me

Hon the Fly!

You are wrong. Patrick refers to him as 'Fly', which is another parish to 'The fly' which is frankly stupid. Was Hurricane Run called 'The Run'

shamdrog63

Dr. Bre wrote: »

and this is why the fly doesnt get the credit in the uk as much as here cos they look at him winning races with few runners here

Its not just "fly" "the fly" (you know who i mean) its ALL Irish horses that are begrudged in the UK on TV but with the removal of that Jingoistic B.....d McCrirrick it may be somewhat addressed.

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

You are wrong. Patrick refers to him as 'Fly', which is another parish to 'The fly' which is frankly stupid. Was Hurricane Run called 'The Run'

Yes 'The Run' would be silly as a run is an inanimate object, a fly on the other hand is a living thing ergo your argument is frankly stupid

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Yes 'The Run' would be silly as a run is an inanimate object, a fly on the other hand is a living thing ergo your argument is frankly stupid

Both horses were named after the movement, ie to run or to fly so your argument is ridiculous

premierstone

shamdrog63 wrote: »

Its not just "fly" "the fly" (you know who i mean) its ALL Irish horses that are begrudged in the UK on TV but with the removal of that Jingoistic B.....d McCrirrick it may be somewhat addressed.

Can't agree there, Istabraq was reveered in the UK for achieving pretty much the same as Hurricane Fly - I don't think its a national/patriotic thing anyway, he hasn't been giving the credit he deserves in Ireland either tbh.

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Both horses were named after the movement, ie to run or to fly so your argument is ridiculous

Nah the fly was named after the insect, was talking to his mammy who confirmed as much, sorry to be a fly in the ointment if you will

shamdrog63

premierstone wrote: »

Nah the fly was named after the insect, was talking to his mammy who confirmed as much, sorry to be a fly in the ointment if you will

I spoke to his daddy & he said he was named after the zipper on the front of his pants;)

convert

Let's keep on topic, guys.

MassDeb8r

shamdrog63 wrote: »

I spoke to his daddy & he said he was named after the zipper on the front of his pants;)

Wrong Wrong Wrong!

For those of you who were wondering how Hurricane Fly got his name I have the answer.

The poem "The Night Before Christmas" by Clement Clark Moore contains the verse

"Now dash away! dash away! dash away all!"
As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky;

Case closed.

Source ? -- it's my job to know these things:)

anuprising

last year in the novices race at leopardstown jezki posted a time of 3.57.7
hurricane fly ran two days later and posted a time of 3,56.6

what you would expect 1.1 sec in the difference , until you take into account that jezki was a novice and hurricane fly was a seasoned champion hurdler

they met this year in the same race on 27 December and the official time that separates them is half a second (0.5secs) 2.5 lengths
what you would expect until you take into account that jezki was trapped in a pocket and hampered and didn't get going quick enough .
with normal improvement I think jezki can beat hurricane fly in the irish champion hurdle at the weekend and I have him backed for the champion hurdle at Cheltenham
I honestly think hurricane flys domination is over, too many queing up to take him on .

RichieLawlor

anuprising wrote: »

last year in the novices race at leopardstown jezki posted a time of 3.57.7
hurricane fly ran two days later and posted a time of 3,56.6

what you would expect 1.1 sec in the difference , until you take into account that jezki was a novice and hurricane fly was a seasoned champion hurdler

they met this year in the same race on 27 December and the official time that separates them is half a second (0.5secs) 2.5 lengths
what you would expect until you take into account that jezki was trapped in a pocket and hampered and didn't get going quick enough .
with normal improvement I think jezki can beat hurricane fly in the irish champion hurdle at the weekend and I have him backed for the champion hurdle at Cheltenham
I honestly think hurricane flys domination is over, too many queing up to take him on .

Comparing times of races is a futile exercise. All manner of things have to be taken into consideration.

nobody told me

anuprising wrote: »

last year in the novices race at leopardstown jezki posted a time of 3.57.7
hurricane fly ran two days later and posted a time of 3,56.6

what you would expect 1.1 sec in the difference , until you take into account that jezki was a novice and hurricane fly was a seasoned champion hurdler

they met this year in the same race on 27 December and the official time that separates them is half a second (0.5secs) 2.5 lengths
what you would expect until you take into account that jezki was trapped in a pocket and hampered and didn't get going quick enough .
with normal improvement I think jezki can beat hurricane fly in the irish champion hurdle at the weekend and I have him backed for the champion hurdle at Cheltenham
I honestly think hurricane flys domination is over, too many queing up to take him on .

Time only matters when your in jail

anuprising

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Comparing times of races is a futile exercise. All manner of things have to be taken into consideration.

agreed , it's just a factor in a bigger picture but it is the basis of timeforms analysis of races and is used much more in other country's than here , but it has to matter a bit to people if there are official times recorded for every race and documented in the form book .
handicapper uses times in both codes to assist in his conclusion on a new mark

was just something I noticed while going thru the form , will know more on Sunday evening :-)

nuckeythompson

I would not agrre its futile. It is an important factor to take on boards. One of many factors but important all the same

premierstone

nuckeythompson wrote: »

I would not agrre its futile. It is an important factor to take on boards. One of many factors but important all the same

No its completely irrelevant over 2m, if you have sectionals and want to compare them then that is a worthwhile exercise.

nuckeythompson

disagree, first of why are the races timed to compare previous years etc, it is a factor taking the ground into considersation. Mick Fitzgerald has rstated the importance on many occasion. As I said its a factor and not the be all and end all

UrbanSea

Mick is hardly known for his top class analysis. The Yanks put a stupidly large amount of emphasis on times. Times can be useful but comparing races year on years based on time can be deceptive

faoile@n

Comparing times is a very misleading method of analysis.

The ground, weight carried, rail configurations and most of all pace of a race have a massive bearing on the time of a race.

For my money Jezki doesn't have the tactical speed to win a champion hurdle and will continue to find trouble like he did the last day.

He couldn't pick up in a truly run race in the Supreme and he didn't have the pace to go past Captain Cee Bee lto in a muddling affair.

Not for me.

BumperD

Interesting Update on Hurricane Fly here -

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1127457&category=0

Hurricane Fly improves for each run, and achieved his highest ever rating of 175 lto. Its hard to see him do anything other than run to that level again or better it at his favourite track under the same conditions.

Our Conor is the next in the betting. He will surely strip a little sharper for the last run & experience of an open Gr 1 contest, but they stated before his last race that he was as fit despite his early season setback (B Cooper in the racing post) and he was beaten fair & square. He needs to improve a full stone on Official Ratings to beat the favourite. Its possible as he was marked 11lbs higher between his triumph blitzkrieg and his comeback race in December but even the favourite (who is exceptional) didn’t have that rate of progression nor can I see any comparatives to match against. Only 2 5yr olds in the last 20 yrs have managed to land the Champion Hurdle crown and I think Our Conor is a class act, but up against an exceptional horse. If he still retains notions of dethroning the champ in March, he has to win this Sunday.

Jezki came into the last race with 2 wins to his name and was theoretically the fittest of the 3. I have watched the replay of his last race again tonight & I’m of the same view as when I saw it live. He would not have won the race, even with a clear run. Even when he was pulled out to deliver his run, he didn’t jump the final hurdle as cleanly as Hurricane Fly, who is just sharper, faster and slicker. I think he stayed on well on the run in rather than gained any ground.

Given HF is 3/1 for the champion hurdle, and assuming he wins on Sunday, what price post race for the CH? The New One disappointed me lto (and cost me money) in Kempton and while I’m confident he’ll beat My Tent Our Yours at Cheltenham, I am doubting he can turn over Hurricane Fly. It was my first time ever backing Hurricane Fly lto (better to join the party late than never at all?) and although unbackable this Sunday given my modest stakes, I think we’re just witnessing one of the greatest hurdlers of all time, going for a record 20th Grd 1 win & I’m probably going to make the effort & get to Leopardstown on Sunday to see, what should be, a fascinating race though I can only see one outcome – A Comfortable 2 or 3L win for the Champ.

Backstreet Moyes

BumperD wrote: »

Interesting Update on Hurricane Fly here -

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1127457&category=0

Hurricane Fly improves for each run, and achieved his highest ever rating of 175 lto. Its hard to see him do anything other than run to that level again or better it at his favourite track under the same conditions.

Our Conor is the next in the betting. He will surely strip a little sharper for the last run & experience of an open Gr 1 contest, but they stated before his last race that he was as fit despite his early season setback (B Cooper in the racing post) and he was beaten fair & square. He needs to improve a full stone on Official Ratings to beat the favourite. Its possible as he was marked 11lbs higher between his triumph blitzkrieg and his comeback race in December but even the favourite (who is exceptional) didn’t have that rate of progression nor can I see any comparatives to match against. Only 2 5yr olds in the last 20 yrs have managed to land the Champion Hurdle crown and I think Our Conor is a class act, but up against an exceptional horse. If he still retains notions of dethroning the champ in March, he has to win this Sunday.

Jezki came into the last race with 2 wins to his name and was theoretically the fittest of the 3. I have watched the replay of his last race again tonight & I’m of the same view as when I saw it live. He would not have won the race, even with a clear run. Even when he was pulled out to deliver his run, he didn’t jump the final hurdle as cleanly as Hurricane Fly, who is just sharper, faster and slicker. I think he stayed on well on the run in rather than gained any ground.

Given HF is 3/1 for the champion hurdle, and assuming he wins on Sunday, what price post race for the CH? The New One disappointed me lto (and cost me money) in Kempton and while I’m confident he’ll beat My Tent Our Yours at Cheltenham, I am doubting he can turn over Hurricane Fly. It was my first time ever backing Hurricane Fly lto (better to join the party late than never at all?) and although unbackable this Sunday given my modest stakes, I think we’re just witnessing one of the greatest hurdlers of all time, going for a record 20th straight win & I’m probably going to make the effort & get to Leopardstown on Sunday to see, what should be, a fascinating race though I can only see one outcome – A Comfortable 2 or 3L win for the Champ.

I expect Our Conor to turn the tables with Jezki and run HF close. Last day was really his first run of the season and he should be sharper. Last day he pulled very hard early on and he needs to settle better this time. He turned for home travelling as well as the others but i think he tired after pulling hard early on. Also his jumping last day was not as slick as usual. Would love to see him win but if he is going to beat HF i feel it will be at Cheltenham and not in Ireland.

Dr. Bre

hopefully our conor doesnt run hurricane to close so his odds will be better at cheltenham when he peaks ha

Colonel Sanders

He will surely strip a little sharper for the last run & experience of an open Gr 1 contest, but they stated before his last race that he was as fit despite his early season setback (B Cooper in the racing post) and he was beaten fair & square

While I'm not suggesting that I know better than Bryan Cooper (I read his racingpost column before the race) I could smell the pre-race drift on Our Conor all the way down the M9 in Kilkenny.

Was anyone there who saw the horse in the flesh before the race? For me the alarming market drift told its own story

nobody told me

With the way Dessie Hughes trains his horses there is one day our conor will be cherry ripe and that's the 11th of march. If he gets within a length or two of hurricane fly at leop he'll beat him at chelt.

Panrich

I don't agree with the RP analysis that says Our Conor HAS to win on Sunday to have a chance in the Champion. I still think that Hurricane Fly is much better around Leopardstown and has yet to show that level of form at Cheltenham despite his two champion hurdle wins.

shamdrog63

Our Conor while visually stunning beat nothing in the Triumph. Far West? Sametegal are good handicappers at best and apart from Rolling Ball whose chasing it was a poor field.While each year we expect
novices to step up to the plate HF is exceptional and his like don,t come round every year.Judged on his last run he is not in decline yet while the our conor will improve
I dont think it will be enough.

Backstreet Moyes

Panrich wrote: »

I don't agree with the RP analysis that says Our Conor HAS to win on Sunday to have a chance in the Champion. I still think that Hurricane Fly is much better around Leopardstown and has yet to show that level of form at Cheltenham despite his two champion hurdle wins.

No it's nonsense alright his best chance to beat him is Cheltenham. HF is just near bombproof in Ireland. I don't think anybody from the Champion Hurdle field would beat him over here. Would be very happy if Our Connor run's him close Sunday.

BumperD

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

While I'm not suggesting that I know better than Bryan Cooper (I read his racingpost column before the race) I could smell the pre-race drift on Our Conor all the way down the M9 in Kilkenny.

Was anyone there who saw the horse in the flesh before the race? For me the alarming market drift told its own story

Yes, it would be good to hear if anyone reckon'd he was carrying a bit of condition that day. He did seem to tire close home which suggests he shoul improve for that first run over timber this season.

BumperD

nobody told me wrote: »

With the way Dessie Hughes trains his horses there is one day our conor will be cherry ripe and that's the 11th of march. If he gets within a length or two of hurricane fly at leop he'll beat him at chelt.

HF is also being primed for 11 march, as are all the main contenders. Our Connor still has to find 1stone improvement on HF to become the 3rd five yr old in the last 20yrs to win a champion hurdle. The last winner (Katchit) faced nothing of the calibre of this yrs renewal. HF is there to be dethroned, but until someone does, it makes sense to stick with those with proven form. Hope our Connor and Jeski run we'll this Sunday as it would be some race if all top 5 in the CH market approach the last flight with a shot at the title come match.

Having said all that, it's easy make a case for the fav in any race but I do think, based on what we have seen to date with 7 weeks left to the main event, that he will retain his crown

kiers47

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

While I'm not suggesting that I know better than Bryan Cooper (I read his racingpost column before the race) I could smell the pre-race drift on Our Conor all the way down the M9 in Kilkenny.

Was anyone there who saw the horse in the flesh before the race? For me the alarming market drift told its own story

I was there for it Colonel. To my untrained eye :rolleyes:
Our Conor is by far the best looker of the bunch. He didnt look to me like he had much work left in him. But i expect him to come on and at least reverse places with Jezki. Whether he can find 6L improvement around the same track i highly doubt it.

I didnt get much of a look at Jezki but he looked good from what i seen and was there to give a good account of himself.

HF i have seen him now 10+ times and i remember thinking that he looked the fittest that he has ever been for this stage of the season.

yaboya1

Regardless of whether he beats Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown or Cheltenham, I fully expect Our Conor to improve with every run. Anybody who remembers how Hardy Eustace was campaigned shouldn't be surprised by this. I don't think Jezki will be finishing in front of him again this season. Even if he does, he doesn't jump anywhere near well enough to be winning the top races when all the main protagonists show up. People keep claiming he was unlucky the last day, but he wasn't gaining ground on the winner after he got out of trouble in that race, and is likely to be overbet on Sunday because of this as punters love an unlucky loser.

premierstone

Hurricane Fly has won two Champion Hurdles over CD and yet people maintain that Our Conor who has never even ran over CD has a better chance of beating him there than anywhere else I must be missing something here, FWIW he has the exact same chance of beating him, no matter where they run.

nobody told me

premierstone wrote: »

Hurricane Fly has won two Champion Hurdles over CD and yet people maintain that Our Conor who has never even ran over CD has a better chance of beating him there than anywhere else I must be missing something here, FWIW he has the exact same chance of beating him, no matter where they run.

Where was our conor most impressive? Where has hurricane fly been least impressive? He doesn't travel round chelt as well as he does at leop. This is a way better race than last year and the year he won it IMO.

Hulk Hands

Hurricane Fly hasn't been at his best on any visit to Cheltenham. The proximity of Thousand Stars in year one and Rock on Ruby in year 3 should tell you that, judging by how he destroyed them in punchestown afterwards. Our Conor has never run over Cheltenhams old track, but he ran over a similar track and undulations on Cheltenhams new track and was sensational. Completely logical to think that the old track might be OK best chance of beating HF.

premierstone

nobody told me wrote: »

Where was our conor most impressive? Where has hurricane fly been least impressive? He doesn't travel round chelt as well as he does at leop. This is a way better race than last year and the year he won it IMO.

Our Conor won on the new course, the Champion Hurdle is on the old course, apples and oranges! With the exception of 2012 how has he not been impressive, a horse does not need to win by 10 lenghts to be deemed impressive, he just does enough and maybe thats why he doesnt get the credit he deserves.

As for last years race been weak, ROR, Binocular and Zarkandar had between them achieved far more than the four main protaginists that Hurricane Fly will put to the sword this year. Grandouet would be at a similar level to where Jezki and MTOY are aswell and he couldnt complete the course, nothing to say one of the challengers this year wont meet a similar fate, infact both Jezki and TNO look prime candidates for it.

In 2011, I seem to remember Peddlars Cross been hyped up and that Hurricane had never met anything like this beast who was unbeaten and a multiple Graded winner, wasn't long putting him in his place either

premierstone

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Hurricane Fly hasn't been at his best on any visit to Cheltenham. The proximity of Thousand Stars in year one and Rock on Ruby in year 3 should tell you that, judging by how he destroyed them in punchestown afterwards. Our Conor has never run over Cheltenhams old track, but he ran over a similar track and undulations on Cheltenhams new track and was sensational. Completely logical to think that the old track might be OK best chance of beating HF.

Hurricane Flys highest ever rating is 175, he has achieved 172 and 173 in his two Champion wins, thats pretty damn close to his best and doesn't suggest a horse that has a problem with the undulating nature of the course.

Our Conor's triumph was visually sensational, but in hindsight the race lacked any sort of depth and not even one of those behind have endorsed the form, he looks to me a very very exciting prospect but I suspect that he was a lot more forward as a juvenile than most and that the expected level of improvement from 4 to 5 yo will not be as dramatic as many assumed.

Very much respect the horse and landed quite a nice touch last year, would also agree that 9/1 is a lovely e/w price but the suggestions that have been made by some that if he finishes within 2 lenghts of Hurricane on Sunday he will turn the tables in March is based more in myth than fact as of now.