Saturday January 18th

convert

I see Dunguib is entered for the Limestone Lad Hurdle in Naas on Saturday: http://www.irishracing.com/cards/Naas_Sat_18th_Jan_2014_1_00.html
It'll be interesting to see how he runs. It's not an easy race for the first one back.

BumperD

Last chance saloon for him. 11 yr old, not sure how much he can achieve at this age but good to see him back on track.

shy-tall-knight

Always tough to come back at his age but hopefully he can. I remember getting very excited about Weapon's Amnesty coming back last year off a similar injury. That run turned out to be his last. Touch wood Dunguib can show the fire still burns.
I'm really rooting for connections as they were so sporting and so brave to (A)Turn down all the big offers after his festival bumper win and (B)Sticking by Brian O Connell and showing true loyalty to him as his career was starting out. They deserve another trip or two the winners enclosure at the very least.

convert

Here's some coverage of his return: http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=74135&headline=Dunguib-set-for-Naas-return

sonnky

Some very good racing tomorrow, 2 horses that stand out to me throughout the day, a double and two singles. Might have another one later:

Naas 13.00: Rule The World 2/1

Rule The World is a big price for the 6 runner Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas. A grade two winner, he has also been placed in Grade 3 company and twice in Grade 1 company. He has a 100 per cent record at Naas with two victories, taking a Grade 2 novice hurdle here last spring and winning here on his seasonal reappearance in October. The soft to heavy ground is certainly in his favour, his record on ground soft or worse reads 1,1,1,P,1,2. He was pulled up in a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown festival when he got injured after the third flight of hurdles, whilst his only other defeat came in a Grade One at Leopardstown over 3 miles, when he finished second beaten just 4 length.

He clearly is a high class animal and with the ground and course in his favour he should provide a winner for Bryan Cooper and Mouse Morris.

Haydock 14.40: Melodic Rendezvous 9/4
Melodic Rendezvous attempts to get back to winning ways here in the Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial, having finished outside the first two for the first time in his career last time out in the fighting fifth at Newcastle. However I think that run doesn't show the horses true ability and he can bounce back tomorrow to take this Grade 2 event.

On heavy ground this horse has a brilliant record of 2,1,1,1. A place in the Irish champion bumper was his only defeat in heavy ground and the wins came in a novice event at Cheltenham, where he beat last week's Kempton Grade 1 victor Royal Boy, he also won the Grade 1 Tolworth hurdle at Sandown and a listed event at Exeter on Heavy ground.

His poor showing last time out came after an impressive win at Wincanton on his seasonal debut, carrying top weight in a Handicap. That win came off a mark of 150 and he beat some decent horses like Far West and Cotton Mill. That day Cotton Mill finished 8 1/4 lengths behind Melodic Rendezvous in receipt of 2lbs, however off level weights in the Fighting Fifth, Cotton Mill finished half a length in front of Melodic Rendezvous. I think this shows Melodic Rendezvous wasn't quite right in the Fighting Fifth and it is reported he came back with a pulled muscle in one of his legs.

I think he has the beating of his main rival Ptit Zig based on their handicap form. Ptit Zig was second off 1lb higher in a race that was a small bit weaker IMO and although Ptit Zig won't mind the ground I think it will play more to Melodic Rendezvous strengths. If Jeremy Scott has gotten him back to his best Melodic Rendezvous is a cracking price at 9/4.

jimjamcos

Agree on Rule The World and Melodic Renezvous. Might give Katenko one last chance too given that he was turned out very quick lto after fall in Hennessy. My main bet of the day will be Sizing Gold though. I know Foxrock is decent but I think SG will prove very good over 3m. Will be having a small bet on him for RSA in morning too.

paddy no 11

Not sure rule the world is the same since injury, would prefer a meloding/sizing gold double also.

jimjamcos

See Katenko is pricewise selection. No more 5s, 7/2 now. Kant.

unitedrover

I hate when they call these races Champion Hurdle trials. I couldnt imagine any of them winning the CH.

UrbanSea

Winner$ and dinner$

Bourne 2.25 Ascot 7/1

An open looking race with plenty of young, unexposed horses but a chance is taken on Bourne who is a frustrating horse but has dropped to a handy mark. Now an eight year old, he only has 3 wins from 21 starts over hurdles and should probably have more, with three wins on the flat up to 10 furlongs. He won on his hurdling debut at Catterick over this trip back in December 2011 and has been hit and miss since. He won on his handicap debut over this course and distance off of this mark 2 years ago in what was a very strong race, winning with a fair bit in hand to beat a really smart horse in Smad Place 3 ½ lengths (who was third to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle next time out, and was third in the same race last year), with Swincombe Flame back in third (third to Quevega in the Mares’ Hurdle) with them clear of Dunraven Storm a winner since.

He looked as if he was in the grasp of the handicapper for a few runs after that, finishing no better than midfield in some strong handicaps off a mark in the 130s before getting his head back in front over 2 miles at Kempton on heavy ground in December 2012. His form dipped thereafter, but did run well when beaten only 7 lengths over this course and distance last February off a mark of 140. Hadn’t been showing a whole lot since, but is often well backed and the handicapper has given him some slack, well backed at Bangor in November when a four lengths third, and ran much better than the result suggests in a hot Sandown handicap next time out, leading two out before seemingly not staying over 2 ¾ miles, and it was probably the same last time at Wetherby when travelling strongly.

This is a decent race but he gets in at the foot of the weights carrying just 10-4 and his form over this course and distance is very, very strong. Frustrating, he probably isn’t one to overly rely on but he should be able to win off a mark like this and hopefully it can be tomorrow.

Dance and Dance 3.45 Lingfield 7/1

Similar to Bourne but even worse, this is one of the most frustrating horses around. He’s a really talented gelding and was once rated as high as 110, he’s down to a mark of 90 tomorrow and it’d be really disappointing if he couldn’t get competitive off a mark like
this. I’ve twice put him up before this is what I’d to say:

‘’Probably the most wide open race of the day as the market suggests when it’s 9/1 the field and again it’s a risky enough bet for a horse who hasn’t been in the best of form of late but is very well treated if he decides to put his best foot forward. Was at one stage of his career one of the most progressive horses in training, entering handicaps off a mark of 78 back in 2009 before winning four really good handicaps in two years before going on to be a half length runner up in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot off an 8lb higher mark back in 2011 and earned himself a rating as high as 110 after running well in group races, including when beaten a neck by Side Glance in a gr.3 at Salisbury.

Not as good in the meantime, but did easily win a conditions race at Doncaster last summer. Ran okay for the most part since without landing a blow, but really caught the eye the run before last at York in a good handicap when hampered and not beaten all that far, though didn’t build on that last time at Newcastle. Down to a mark of 94 which he would have bolted up on in his better days. Most of his racing has been done over a mile and has to prove he has the speed for seven, but there is likely to be a very strong pace on for him tomorrow in such a big field which will play to his strengths. Ryan Moore is a real positive booking and he has ridden him three times, a winner at Epsom, runner up in the Hunt Cup and another runner up in the Diadem Stakes at Epsom. A tricky race but could bounce back with blinkers fitted.’’

Ran really well that day, finishing really strongly having being hampered to be beaten around two lengths into fourth, having probably being worth more. He hasn’t done so well since, he did finish runner up next time out off the same mark (was given too much to do, but wouldn’t have won regardless) behind the gambled on Glen Moss. He was sent off favourite next time out for a really hot Curragh handicap, never really landing a blow, but showed more than enough to suggest he was ready to strike soon when a very good sixth of 30 in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket behind the very smart Educate off a two pound higher mark. This is a much, much easier race tomorrow and it would be very disappointing if he finished out of the first three here in what is his best opportunity to get his head in front in quite a while, though his win to run ratio is poor.’’


He ran disappointingly that day, hampered at the start and raced on the stands side, running too badly to be true. He did run better than the result suggests last time out in a good Wolverhampton handicap (had to race wide). This race isn’t as good, I think plenty here are in the grip of the handicapper. He is a tough horse to win with but is dangerously well handicapped and hopefully tomorrow is his day, though he needs a bit of luck in running (races behind and runs late)

Katenko 3.15 Haydock 4/1

Ex French trained gelding who was a multiple winner there, including a Grade 3 chase over 2 ¾ miles at Auteil as a four year old on heavy ground, and has proven himself a very smart handicapper in his light British career, and looks like one who may progress from handicaps. He had his first start for Venetia Williams in November 2012 in a competitive handicap hurdle, looking in need of the run when finishing well beaten as an unfancied 25/1 shot.


He left that form well behind him since, finishing runner up first start over fences in Britain when a good second to the progressive Wyck Hill in tough conditions at Ascot off a mark of 136 (pair 35 lengths clear of the only other finisher) and went one better in impressive style over that trip at Sandown next time out off the same mark in a race that is working out rock solid, easily beating John’s Spirit (won twice since) and Fruity O’Rooney (winner since). Proved that to be no fluke when dotting up over an extended 2 ½ miles at Cheltenham in heavy ground next time out off a mark of 147 in his final start last season before getting injured when on course to run in the Gold Cup.

Was travelling as well as any on his seasonal reappearance in the Hennessey when falling at the fourteenth, and he may well have needed the run next time out when disappointing at Aintree. His two victories last year created a really favourable impression and he can take this en route to higher targets.

king Henry 14

I see DUNGUIB makes a comeback in rule the world' s race tomorrow. Has been off the track for three years and has a lot on his plate here but might have a small bet for old times sake. Had unbelievable potential a few years ago before loss of form and injury stopped his progress. Will be interesting to see him run.

mailburner

agree on melodic, some price and the horse has
been good to me

Francie Barrett

Lads, if there's a plot horse out tomorrow, then surely it's Get Back In Line. Have been following this one since its debut and in all three races it has run, we have never seen the best of it.

The first time it ran in Plumpton a year ago, it came second to Mr Watson. I remember watching the race later that evening and roaring at the tv for Maurice Linehan to actually make an attempt to put the horse into the race. It still finished second with loads in hand. Needless to say, I wasn't the only one who noticed something was wrong. There was an investigation into the ride given to Get Back In Line that day, unsurprisingly it found nothing wrong, but it was clear as day to anyone that Get Back In Line wasn't supposed to win that day.

The next time it ran, McCoy took the reins and it won a lot easier than what the finish suggested. Take a look at the race and you'll actually see that McCoy had the horse well held even at the second last, it looked a very crafty ride to try and keep the handicapper from noticing just how good this horse was. The last race it ran, it veered out right at the second last and unseated Richie McLernon off. At that point it was well in touch and going well, certainly looked to be travelling better than Irish Saint who is also out tomorrow. That race was featured what may very well be a few future stars, so for Get Back In Line to be competitive there, there's just no way you can justify an official rating of 127.

There's certainly a few unexposed types out, but with the horse carrying nearly 2 stone less than the top weight, you'd have to fancy it for what could turn out to be a stamina sapping race over the muck. 5/1's with a few bookies, I'd expect the price to get skinny tomorrow.

The_Kew_Tour

Put a few quid earlier ew on Night Alliance 3.15 Haydock tomorrow at 8/1.

Trainer Richard Newland in good form at Minute. Still progressive type and has won 3 from 4 starts. Loves heavy ground having won 2 of his 3 races in these conditions. Was very impressed with his win at this course just before Christmas so will be worth ew bet. Going up in class dont think will be a problem

prettyboy81

Is Colonel backing Hidden Cyclone today?

I'm gonna have a bet on him & put him in a double with Melodic & a treble with those two & Suarez 1st goal scorer.

Happy Saturday!

sting60

Naas bumper Take The Hit 16/1.I know nothing about the horse but he is bred for deep deep ground.If mouse has this fit he will adore the heavy today.I landed a right few Euro last time Lujeanie won and i fancy him again today at 10/1 at Ling 2.35.Based on handicap Rule The World has a fair bit to find to win the 1pm Naas and 2/1 is poor value.Two cracking rides there at Flemington for Oisin Murphy a boy going to the top.

hucklebuck

I love Vino Griego in a visor and Night Alliance who is till ahead of the handicapper but I think The Minack is a superb bet today at 14/1 (skybet), he has been off for almost 2 years and was very much still improving, he slipped up after a fence lto and was not out of the race if I recall properly.

Interestingly the race before that he gave a visored Vino Griego a 6l beating when giving him 15lbs, today he receives 5lbs from Vino. Nicholls is a dab hand at getting horse very fit after a long lay off and I would be amazed if he is not in the shake up. My only concern is the ground, he has no history in ground this deep.

I am going to do a reverse tricast, Minack, Night Alliance and Vino Griego which comes off will result in much more than chicken dinner

johnnybegood

What are the thoughts on Sire de Grugy?

heavydemon

johnnybegood wrote: »

What are the thoughts on Sire de Grugy?

I dont think he'll stay somersby to edge out hidden cyclone for me

akelly02

Cant see past sire de grugy, form in the book, serious engine.

Somersby is a dog imo and hidden cyclone is below top class.

oPATCHo

Backed Somersby (@ 11/2 - ante post). I don't really rate Sire de Grugy all that much and think he will be exposed very late in the race

sting60

In the 12.55 Haydock Paddy Griffin sends Maggio on the relative short trip to Liverpool from Swords north Dublin instead of his normal haunts to Scotland.What should be noted very carefully is James Reveley rides Trustan Times for Tim Easterby.Reveley is a close friend of the Griffins and rides most of Paddys runners.Trustan Times is worth investing in today.Pipes in the 2.05 Haydock cost 450k sterling christ he must be good.

jimjamcos

Find it hard to like Sire De Grugy myself. He's never fully convinced me and neither has his jockey. I think he's beatable today but wouldn't be putting money on it as he will love the ground.

UrbanSea

Not fully convinced by him myself but it's not the strongest bunch around at the minute. Hope he hacks up and is further cut for the champion, my 25/1 ante post still looks very good.

BumperD

Sire de Grugy is surely too good for this lot today.

Goldcupfav

johnnybegood wrote: »

What are the thoughts on Sire de Grugy?

I can see Days Hotel out running his odds of 12/1 today. Trainer has said they have had this race in mind all season and Henry never sends once across the water unless they ready to run a big one.

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

Not fully convinced by him myself but it's not the strongest bunch around at the minute. Hope he hacks up and is further cut for the champion, my 25/1 ante post still looks very good.

Seen an interview Moore last night and think he said he's definitely going Champion Chase now with the doubts over SS. With a lot of other contenders likely to be upped in trip if SS turns up, looks like you've a great chance of getting a ew return anyway.

nobody told me

Very impressive winner if the first in naas, to quicken up like that in that ground was awesome

jimjamcos

nobody told me wrote: »

Very impressive winner if the first in naas, to quicken up like that in that ground was awesome

20s for the Triumph is not the worst price.

kiers47

I get why people want to take on Sire Du Grugy but the horse is as consistent as any rarely running below a 160 rating since last january. I think 6/4-13/8 is a serious price.

mailburner

good performance by rule the world

jimjamcos

Rule The World's record left-handed now reads 5 wins, 2 2nds from 7 runs. Still very much a live outsider for WH on my mind.

BorneTobyWilde

Irish Saint 7-1 2.25 Ascot
I like this ew. Has ran in some nice races previous, don't think this is as tough.

Merry King 6-1 3.15
EW. Consistent sort, won't mind the ground. Safe ew I hope.

Glastonberry 14-1 2.35 Lingfield
EW. Consistent of late, this drop in class may help

jimjamcos

Money spoke there. Didn't see the race. Sizing just beaten by a better horse or fail to stay?

kiers47

I thought Utopies Des Bordes was probably a bit over priced this morning was 6/1-7/1 ish. No bet though.

UrbanSea

Lovely attitude by Highland Retreat. Love fillies who aren't afraid a battle

TheMilkyPirate

jimjamcos wrote: »

Money spoke there. Didn't see the race. Sizing just beaten by a better horse or fail to stay?

Practically walked over the line. Dead on his feet.

Highland retreat showing a great attitude there, Jumped well throughout looks a nice horse.

Backstreet Moyes

Can;t get near a winner. Last bet Stand to Reason 2.05, Henderson's only horse in Haydock and he seemed sweet on him in his blog.

MoscowFlyer

2.35 Lingfield - Temple Road 7/1

Back on the AW track so expecting a decent showing here. Long absence but if it is ready to go I don't see why this one shouldn't be fighting out the finish. Decent E/W bet imo

BumperD

I've done sire de grugy/kiltullagh Vic double. I won't get rich from it but will pay for a night out if it lands.

UrbanSea

Bourne Bourne Bourne

carpothepunk

The Skyfarmer is a bloody huge price here. I had 2pts win last night, but 11/8 to place, I can't resist.

mailburner

thomas crapper please

BorneTobyWilde

I called that, too easy for Irish Saint class above today.

UrbanSea

Nag nag nag

MoscowFlyer

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

2.35 Lingfield - Temple Road 7/1

Back on the AW track so expecting a decent showing here. Long absence but if it is ready to go I don't see why this one shouldn't be fighting out the finish. Decent E/W bet imo

What the **** just happened there? Cruising around the bend then ask for an effort and just imploded. Finished stone last. Maybe blowing the cobwebs off but that was embarrassing.

BorneTobyWilde

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Irish Saint 7-1 2.25 Ascot
I like this ew. Has ran in some nice races previous, don't think this is as tough.

Merry King 6-1 3.15
EW. Consistent sort, won't mind the ground. Safe ew I hope.

Glastonberry 14-1 2.35 Lingfield
EW. Consistent of late, this drop in class may help

Just failed, draw no help. It was short of room no choice but to go widest of all. But good ew price

sting60

Watched Ascot and it looks very heavy so no more pussy footing went in fairly large on Sire De Grugy.

Francie Barrett

sting60 wrote: »

Naas bumper Take The Hit 16/1.I know nothing about the horse but he is bred for deep deep ground.If mouse has this fit he will adore the heavy today.I landed a right few Euro last time Lujeanie won and i fancy him again today at 10/1 at Ling 2.35.Based on handicap Rule The World has a fair bit to find to win the 1pm Naas and 2/1 is poor value.Two cracking rides there at Flemington for Oisin Murphy a boy going to the top.

33/1 Take the Hit, put a small each way on it

oPATCHo

Grandioso for me in the 3:00

Backed him for Chelt when he pulled up. Going to give him another try

MoscowFlyer

Noel SATURDAY Fehily