Longshotvalue @ Cheltenham

longshotvalue

I'm going to start with my few Ante-Post Bets, and continue this tread all through the festival.

Arkle Chase

Looking at this race Rock on Ruby sticks out for me at the current prices. He will be suited by the much better ground that should be available on the day and I think his running style will lend itself well to this race. He’ll hopefully go out in front and should help him jump. Judging by his hurdling career if he is jumping reasonably well he should be very difficult to pass up the hill and I’m willing to take the chance at 10/1 NRFB with bet victor. If he arrives on the day there isn’t any chance he’ll be going off at that price.

2 Points win 10/1 BetVictor NRFB.

longshotvalue

World Hurdle

I’m going with a small EW bet here in Gemix. He was pretty shocking last time out in Cheltenham, but with the NRNB offer the current 40/1 with BetVictor is too big. If he shows up here at all he is sure to be in top form and his routing of Solwit is France is not the form of a 40/1 shot. He may well need softer ground, but I’m willing to take the risk at that price. He is only 6 and possibly has some improvement in him yet. This race could well cut up badly and I want to be holding that docket if it does.

½ Point EW 40/1 BetVictor NRNB

Dr. Bre

at fishers cross at 10/1 for world hurdle. i know hes not a great jumper but if they can improve on that he has a shout

BumperD

aidankkk wrote: »

World Hurdle

I’m going with a small EW bet here in Gemix. He was pretty shocking last time out in Cheltenham, but with the NRNB offer the current 40/1 with BetVictor is too big. If he shows up here at all he is sure to be in top form and his routing of Solwit is France is not the form of a 40/1 shot. He may well need softer ground, but I’m willing to take the risk at that price. He is only 6 and possibly has some improvement in him yet. This race could well cut up badly and I want to be holding that docket if it does.

½ Point EW 40/1 BetVictor NRNB

His trainer confirmed after his last run there that they will not travel over with him again. He's staying in France Aidan.

longshotvalue

Foxhunter Chase

I’ve been looking at his race a few times this week, and although I’ve missed the 10/1 that was available a few days ago, with the couple of fairly important defections today I’m beginning to think this could well be a 2 horse race between Salsify and Mossy Joe. Salsify has the hugely important course form and Mossey Joe destroyed him at Stratford, but it’s very likely that Salsify has only on big day out a year and that’s at the festival. Still thinking of the NRFB offer at BetVictor there is simply no chance at all that if Mossy Joe turns up hell go off at 7/1 (he will go off at 7/2 or lower), so that has to make it a bet at those odds. It’s somewhat tempting to have a decent bet on both here as I can’t see anything else getting near, as for the most part they are up against horses that they are proven against with what looks to be left. They are 6/1 and 8/1 best prices ante post but I think I’ll go for the 7/1 NRFB Betvictor instead on Mossey Joe.

2 Points win Mossey Joe BetVictor NRFB 7/1

rossom

aidankkk wrote: »

Foxhunter Chase

I’ve been looking at his race a few times this week, and although I’ve missed the 10/1 that was available a few days ago, with the couple of fairly important defections today I’m beginning to think this could well be a 2 horse race between Salsify and Mossy Joe. Salsify has the hugely important course form and Mossey Joe destroyed him at Stratford, but it’s very likely that Salsify has only on big day out a year and that’s at the festival. Still thinking of the NRFB offer at BetVictor there is simply no chance at all that if Mossy Joe turns up hell go off at 7/1 (he will go off at 7/2 or lower), so that has to make it a bet at those odds. It’s somewhat tempting to have a decent bet on both here as I can’t see anything else getting near, as for the most part they are up against horses that they are proven against with what looks to be left. They are 6/1 and 8/1 best prices ante post but I think I’ll go for the 7/1 NRFB Betvictor instead on Mossey Joe.

2 Points win Mossey Joe BetVictor NRFB 7/1

Mossey will absolutely piss this if he's 100% fit and I have absolutely no doubt in the world about that.

Had a very, very nice bet on 10s after Connell announced his plan. The speed he goes off from the front will force Coleman Sweeney to play Salsify way earlier than he wants to and could see him finish out of the first 3.

madmoose

Salsify won't be getting the hatrick here so it's mossey joe all the way. Backed him at 7/1 nrfb like above. Will he get a race in before the festival?

longshotvalue

Champion Hurdle

I’m firmly in the Hurricane Fly camp here, even more so after his gutsy performance at the weekend, but I can’t ignore a silly price about Rock on Ruby with non-runner no bet at 40/1. I know there is very little chance of him showing up in this race, although his chances might have improved with him not getting a run at the weekend. In my view he is easily in the top 4 hurdlers even with the new group of pretenders and if he was to turn up I would fully expect him to have a great chance of a place at least here. More than likely won’t get a run for our money but there is a time to take advantage of these offers.

1 Point EW Rock on Ruby 40/1 NRNB 365/Victor

longshotvalue

rossom wrote: »

Mossey will absolutely piss this if he's 100% fit and I have absolutely no doubt in the world about that.

Had a very, very nice bet on 10s after Connell announced his plan. The speed he goes off from the front will force Coleman Sweeney to play Salsify way earlier than he wants to and could see him finish out of the first 3.

I have that 10/1 myself earlier this week, but unfortunately i forgot to put it up. Still as the race has cut up even more now i'm happy enough with a few more quid on at 7/1.

I still wouldn't underestimate the effect of course (particularly festival) form at cheltenham though and id be 100% sure that he wont win as easily as at stratford..

STADEdeLUC

Sizing Gold 25/1 in the JLT, I've a small E/W if he turns up I think its a great value bet

Mossey Joe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzWF_TdJRy4

Just replace Bobby with Mossey

zpehtsfd

Hidden Cyclone @ 70/1 on BF (Ryanair Chase). Not much size but it's worth a fiver. Good chance that will be his target if SS turns up in the Champion Chase. Ran a cracker in the PP and seems to be a different horse this season.

Agree with poster above re. Sizing Gold.

longshotvalue

Ryanair Chase

In a race that could cut up significantly Menorah now great value at 16/1 nrnb with bet365. His last 2 runs last year would put him in with an excellent chance here, just getting beat by First Lieutenant at Aintree and then just about failing to give 17lbs to Champion Court at Cheltenham. He was poor on the King George in soft ground but has in the past has numerous times come back from poor runs to excel and I wouldn’t rule it out here.

1 Point win 16/1 NRNB Bet365

yaboya1

aidankkk wrote: »

Ryanair Chase

In a race that could cut up significantly Menorah now great value at 16/1 nrnb with bet365. His last 2 runs last year would put him in with an excellent chance here, just getting beat by First Lieutenant at Aintree and then just about failing to give 17lbs to Champion Court at Cheltenham. He was poor on the King George in soft ground but has in the past has numerous times come back from poor runs to excel and I wouldn’t rule it out here.

1 Point win 16/1 NRNB Bet365

I thought the same last year and backed him for exactly the same reasons. He ran a stinker though which would put me off doing the same again.

longshotvalue

yaboya1 wrote: »

I thought the same last year and backed him for exactly the same reasons. He ran a stinker though which would put me off doing the same again.

Yeah but he has often put in stinkers and then run well . He just looks value at 16/1 given Cue Card wont be there or First Lieut.. He is capable if on a going day of winning ..

longshotvalue

JLT Novice Chase

Oscar Whiskey just looks overpriced here. He hasn’t really set the world alight with his jumping but this could well be a week enough affair and I really can’t have the 2 above him in the market at shorter prices. It’s risky enough without NRNB but 10/1 is just too big here and I’ll have to go for a 1 point bet as I’d be more raging if I wasn’t on at that price before the race than if I lost it if he didn’t run.

1 Point win 10/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

Ryanair Chase

Mount Benbulben is one I’m going to take a flyer with as I’m not sure he is going to go at all to the festival but that possibility is nicely built into his price. He should be well suited to the Ryanair trip especially if the ground is soft, and in addition I have no interest in him for the gold cup really as he doesn't look to stay that far. His King George run wouldn't put him very far out of this picture and at 120 on Betfair in my view he only need a slight chance of showing up to make that value.

½ Point win 120 betfair

shy-tall-knight

Benbulben entered for the Bobbyjo on Saturday. Has such a massive engine that he can't he dismissed out of hand for either race at Cheltenham. That said, I'd like them to keep him for Punchestown against tired horses.
Did well to finish where he did in the KG considering all the mistakes

longshotvalue

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Benbulben entered for the Bobbyjo on Saturday. Has such a massive engine that he can't he dismissed out of hand for either race at Cheltenham. That said, I'd like them to keep him for Punchestown against tired horses.
Did well to finish where he did in the KG considering all the mistakes

Probably will go to punchestown, but worth a gambel at those odds for the slight chance he might turn up.

longshotvalue

2:40 Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase

Very competitive handicap which isn’t a surprise but I think Tour Des Champs has been underrated here after his very good run last time out. He has a very decent record at Cheltenham and ran a particularly good race over this course and distance earlier this year when 2nd behind Baltazar King on good ground. He had 4lbs more that time and if he can improve at all on his last run where he really stuck his neck out when passed, he could well be very hard to knock out of the places here at 20/1. The connections know how to get a winner here and I expected him to be lower than 20/1


1 Point EW 20/1 Various

UrbanSea

Backed Time for Rupert at 25s this morning ill be sick if Tour wins after backing him the last day, didnt think he would get in

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

I'm going to start with my few Ante-Post Bets, and continue this tread all through the festival.

Arkle Chase

Looking at this race Rock on Ruby sticks out for me at the current prices. He will be suited by the much better ground that should be available on the day and I think his running style will lend itself well to this race. He’ll hopefully go out in front and should help him jump. Judging by his hurdling career if he is jumping reasonably well he should be very difficult to pass up the hill and I’m willing to take the chance at 10/1 NRFB with bet victor. If he arrives on the day there isn’t any chance he’ll be going off at that price.

2 Points win 10/1 BetVictor NRFB.

Runs tomorrow very happy with the now as he is generally 9/2 and the ground has worked out well for him.

shamdrog63

I like Vendor for the coral cup.Would prefer a stronger Jockey
as Jack Doyle gave it a poor ride last time.

ste2010

Choooo choooo couldn't believe TDS got in this morning..snapped up 25's very quickly and also dutched with TFR.

I have a nice little selection picked out for the coral...I'm going to 'creep' around the prices first before I come out of hiding

longshotvalue

5:15 Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase

Attaglance sticks out immediately on looking at this race. He needs good ground, was 4th in the Paddy Power this year of this mark over this course and distance on good ground, which would probably be good enough to take a serious hand in this race. He has won at the festival before over hurdles and some of his form this read makes interesting reading like loosing to Double ross by 2 lenghts, that horse is no rated 152. He hasn’t run over fences at all in the poor ground and should be primed for this race.


2 Points win 18/1 Bet Victor

I’m also going for a ew bet on Ohio Gold, he was 3rd in this last year of a 2lbs higher mark and is generally a very consistent animal, making his prince of 25/1 look great value. He hasn’t been over raced this year and hopefully he should be there or thereabouts again this year. He has more experience than most of the field and that could be invaluable in this novice handicap.


1pt EW 25/1 Betfred Ladbrokes

UrbanSea

Great mind and all that, backed Attaglance once Romford was out

Slattsy

Backed Attaglance yesterday (sorry)

Goldcupfav

Backed Attaglance for this race last year but ended up being a non runner. Think he is a cracking each way bet tomorrow.

ste2010

Aidan - would you consider giving fruity o Rooney another whirl?

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

5:15 Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase

Attaglance sticks out immediately on looking at this race. He needs good ground, was 4th in the Paddy Power this year of this mark over this course and distance on good ground, which would probably be good enough to take a serious hand in this race. He has won at the festival before over hurdles and some of his form this read makes interesting reading like loosing to Double ross by 2 lenghts, that horse is no rated 152. He hasn’t run over fences at all in the poor ground and should be primed for this race.


2 Points win 18/1 Bet Victor

:mad::mad::mad:.. I just dont know what to think. im not going to blame the jockey... Such a clear winner with a decent run at all..

Slattsy

Blame the jockey like the rest of us. Awful ride.

kiers47

aidankkk wrote: »

:mad::mad::mad:.. I just dont know what to think. im not going to blame the jockey... Such a clear winner with a decent run at all..

Backed it myself Aidan. Another to take out of the race is Buywise I think if he didn't decide to walk through 2 of the last 5 fences he would have been very hard to beat.

tomaussie

aidankkk wrote: »

:mad::mad::mad:.. I just dont know what to think. im not going to blame the jockey... Such a clear winner with a decent run at all..

How can you not blame the jockey ? He was all over the shop from 5-6 fences out.

Nulty

Slattsy wrote: »

Blame the jockey like the rest of us. Awful ride.

Awful ride? Bad split second decision is what I'd say. The ride up til then was perfectly fine.

longshotvalue

4:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)


Balthazar King will have his ideal conditions for this tomorrow and although he is lumbered with top weight he has already won over the course & distance this year on good ground and looks sure to run a big race again here. I think the favourite could struggle of his new mark and I’m having difficulty seeing a lot of the field being good enough particularly in these conditions. The 6/1 available now is at least 2 points too big and has to be taken.


2 Points win 6/1 Lads/Will/Stan

Any Currency is worthy of a small saver bet here as he has a huge turnaround with Balthazar King in the weights for a 6 length beating. He has great form on good ground and should be involved in the finish here at a decent looking 12/1.


1 Point win 12/1 Generally

4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle


Solar Impulse is one I picked out when I saw him finish 3rd to Actival trying to give that good horse 7lbs on his first run in this country. He ran and eye-catching race from the front and didn’t fold as could have been expected. He looks on a decent enough mark and 20/1 looks a decent price . 888sport are paying 5 places which is worth taking advantage of.
1 Point EW 20/1 888 5 places.

2:40 Coral Cup

Edgardo Sol is a huge price here for one with a decent festival record and a liking for good ground. He was 2nd in the county hurdle 2 years ago and 6th last year again. His last run needs to be forgotten but he was obviously in trouble there and has been given a break since. He has performed at a big price a few times in the past and 50/1 is great value for such a talented animal with good course form.


1 Point EW 50/1 Coral 5 places.

ste2010

aidankkk wrote: »

4:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)


Balthazar King will have his ideal conditions for this tomorrow and although he is lumbered with top weight he has already won over the course & distance this year on good ground and looks sure to run a big race again here. I think the favourite could struggle of his new mark and I’m having difficulty seeing a lot of the field being good enough particularly in these conditions. The 6/1 available now is at least 2 points too big and has to be taken.


2 Points win 6/1 Lads/Will/Stan

Any Currency is worthy of a small saver bet here as he has a huge turnaround with Balthazar King in the weights for a 6 length beating. He has great form on good ground and should be involved in the finish here at a decent looking 12/1.


1 Point win 12/1 Generally

4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle


Solar Impulse is one I picked out when I saw him finish 3rd to Actival trying to give that good horse 7lbs on his first run in this country. He ran and eye-catching race from the front and didn’t fold as could have been expected. He looks on a decent enough mark and 20/1 looks a decent price . 888sport are paying 5 places which is worth taking advantage of.
1 Point EW 20/1 888 5 places.

2:40 Coral Cup

Edgardo Sol is a huge price here for one with a decent festival record and a liking for good ground. He was 2nd in the county hurdle 2 years ago and 6th last year again. His last run needs to be forgotten but he was obviously in trouble there and has been given a break since. He has performed at a big price a few times in the past and 50/1 is great value for such a talented animal with good course form.


1 Point EW 50/1 Coral 5 places.

Also on solar impulse. Considered Edgardo but decided to steer clear. Harry Derham is taking 3 lbs off both. I think Edgardo is down 3 aswell from last years county.

What's your view on duke of Lucca or hey big spender. They could spring a surprise in this if taking to the banks

Slattsy

Nulty wrote: »

Awful ride? Bad split second decision is what I'd say. The ride up til then was perfectly fine.

When it mattered, he ****ed up and it cost the race. Fact.

Awful ride.

Fact.

Santa Cruz

Le Bec 14/1 2.05
Indevan 20/1 Paddy Power paying e.w. on first five

longshotvalue

Cross Country



As shocking as it seems to have 3 bets in this race I have to have a min saver bet on Sin Palo in this race at 80/1 on betfair. He had some decent form in Ireland but was poor in his last 2 runs. He has been given a break and has the assistance of Paul Townend here. Simply put no Willie Mullins horse is and 80/1 shot in this type of race, and something would get kicked if I hadn’t at least a min bet just in case.


½ Point win 85 Betfair

Nulty

Slattsy wrote: »

When it mattered, he ****ed up and it cost the race. Fact.

Awful ride.

Fact.

Cry me a River

Slattsy

Nulty wrote: »

Cry me a River

Timberlake fan eh. Seems right.

Nulty

Slattsy wrote: »

Timberlake fan eh. Seems right.

That makes at least two things you "saw" wrong.

Slattsy

Nulty wrote: »

That makes at least two things you "saw" wrong.

Name three if thats at least two.....

Quote from Snowden ,who trained the winner, whom i'd assume knows a bit more than you and I about riding horses:
"It was a ludicrous ride from the second jockey,I think the second jockey should never have been there, without a shadow of a doubt"

Now lets not drag this thread off topic as bans are handed out wildly here these days, but safe to say im not the only one that "saw" an awful ride.
And i doubt he was pocket talking either :rolleyes:

longshotvalue

3:20 BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase

Looking through the markets for an angle in this race, I fancy Sire De Grugy at the prices but I think Somersby is seriously underrated this year. He has looked better than ever winning his first start and 2nd in the Tingle Creek. He looks to have the beating of Captain Conan on that form and is 14/1 with Ladbokes in the w/o Sire De Grugy market. He will be fine on the ground and in my mind is the forgotten horse here.


1 Point win 14/1 Without Sire De Grugy Ladbrokes

Gringo180

Cup Final today at 20s, only out for a spin as you can see in the video below wasnt beaten much by Irving. Could run a big race today, extra 5f will suit.

BQQ

aidankkk wrote: »

4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle


Solar Impulse is one I picked out when I saw him finish 3rd to Actival trying to give that good horse 7lbs on his first run in this country. He ran and eye-catching race from the front and didn’t fold as could have been expected. He looks on a decent enough mark and 20/1 looks a decent price . 888sport are paying 5 places which is worth taking advantage of.
1 Point EW 20/1 888 5 places.

Was having a look at this one myself.
Looks even better out to 25/1 in places now.


Hope you don't mind me adding a couple of selections to your thread.

2:40 Coral Cup
Yesyoucan 1pt e.w. @ 50/1 (5 places)

Was a decent hurdler before being sent chasing this season. In fact, he has the joint top racing post rating in this race.
He's been in decent form over fences winning 2 from 5 (both at around this trip)
Back over hurdles 50/1 looks good value.


5:15 Champion Bumper
Our Kaempfer 1pt e.w. @25/1 (4 places)

Has course experience when he was an excellent third to Red Sherlock beaten only about 1 1/2 lengths.
Charlie Longsdon has a very good record in Bumpers, but a very poor record at the festival.
However, I do think he's done things differently this year. His horses were on fire very early in the season then came a lull and now they are back in form at just the right time.
He had 3 winners and 2 places at market rasen on Sunday and he saddled Pendra to be third here yesterday despite blundering at the last.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

4:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)


Balthazar King will have his ideal conditions for this tomorrow and although he is lumbered with top weight he has already won over the course & distance this year on good ground and looks sure to run a big race again here. I think the favourite could struggle of his new mark and I’m having difficulty seeing a lot of the field being good enough particularly in these conditions. The 6/1 available now is at least 2 points too big and has to be taken.


2 Points win 6/1 Lads/Will/Stan

Any Currency is worthy of a small saver bet here as he has a huge turnaround with Balthazar King in the weights for a 6 length beating. He has great form on good ground and should be involved in the finish here at a decent looking 12/1.

No wories about the photo either way.. :D:D

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

3:20 BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase

Looking through the markets for an angle in this race, I fancy Sire De Grugy at the prices but I think Somersby is seriously underrated this year. He has looked better than ever winning his first start and 2nd in the Tingle Creek. He looks to have the beating of Captain Conan on that form and is 14/1 with Ladbokes in the w/o Sire De Grugy market. He will be fine on the ground and in my mind is the forgotten horse here.


1 Point win 14/1 Without Sire De Grugy Ladbrokes

Fecking beauty:D:D:D:D

Slattsy

Fair play Aidan

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

Fecking beauty:D:D:D:D

Well done Aidan. I took him each way at 18s. Should have taken your advice, greedy

longshotvalue

4:00 Byrne Group Plate

Nadiya De La Vega is one I’ve picked a few times in the past around here after she had a few decent few runs of this course and distance. She has dropped below her last winning mark and has plenty of good form on decent ground. There is a visor applied today which could work well given her suspect temperament. She is a standout 25/1 with 5 places on SKYBET and that looks a good few points too big here.



1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Skybet.

I’m also going to go back to my old failing of backing some of my favourite older horses here, in the form of Tartak. He has run well in this race for the last 2 years in 6th and 3rd of higher marks and judging by his very decent 4th over C&D earlier this year, he is overpriced at 33/1 with 5 places.


1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places BetVictor