Would an UK EU exit really effect Ireland ?

ewan whose army

Considering the UK and Ireland have agreements (like right to settle in either and vote in parliaments) long before the EU was formed ? While I am worried about a lot of the British flippancy on the issue I just wonder what effects this would have outside of the UK.

micosoft

ewan whose army wrote: »

Considering the UK and Ireland have agreements (like right to settle in either and vote in parliaments) long before the EU was formed ? While I am worried about a lot of the British flippancy on the issue I just wonder what effects this would have outside of the UK.

It would have an enormous effect depending on how it proceeded and the effects will be both positive and negative.

For example - does the UK leave to become part of EFTA like Norway or Switzerland or exit exit?

In the later case we have the challenge of one of our largest trading partners leaving a free trade zone...

The flip side is that a substantial number of global (and indeed UK companies) may relocate here to take advantage of the EU market. Many have indicated they would...http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/04/goldman-sachs-warns-london-exit-britain-eu

So many factors and variables that is hard to say, but honestly, overall it will be worse for everyone. Mostly the UK, but everyone.

MarkR

Didn't see Ireland mentioned there, just Paris & Frankfurt?

micosoft

MarkR wrote: »

Didn't see Ireland mentioned there, just Paris & Frankfurt?

Sorry - I didn't mean to imply that Goldman would move over. Dublin usually does back office so unlikely to attract an operation like GS who likely would move to the next biggest Financial Hub and Exchange. I suspect it would be Frankfurt.

That said, we would gain a lot of US multinationals, backoffice Finance, some UK firms head offices who all would want to remain in the EU. Mid way down this article you have John Bruton (who heads the IFSC)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb88ee48-859e-11e2-bed4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2qVRHbygv
And here - IDA are bullish:
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/british-exit-seen-as-opportunity-by-business-sector-220509.html

As I said though - other things will be an almighty pain and Irish firms who export to England Wales would suffer.

Jimminism

In a good way, yes.

FreudianSlippers

Jimminism wrote: »

In a good way, yes.

Excellent contribution. I'm not so sure that there are many advantages to the UK leaving, but is can't see how it benefits Ireland to be aligned with the EU without the UK. Given the enormous legal similarities between Ireland and the UK, I would think we should probably consider political and economic cooperation with the UK if they leave. Of course there are massive problems with that idea too. So, I don't think there is a clear answer.

Jimminism

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Excellent contribution. I'm not so sure that there are many advantages to the UK leaving, but is can't see how it benefits Ireland to be aligned with the EU without the UK. Given the enormous legal similarities between Ireland and the UK, I would think we should probably consider political and economic cooperation with the UK if they leave. Of course there are massive problems with that idea too. So, I don't think there is a clear answer.

How could leaving the EU with the UK possibly benefit Ireland? America, Ireland's main trading partner, wants Ireland to remain in the EU. Ireland does more trade with the Rest of the EU than the UK.

FreudianSlippers

Jimminism wrote: »

How could leaving the EU with the UK possibly benefit Ireland? America, Ireland's main trading partner, wants Ireland to remain in the EU. Ireland does more trade with the Rest of the EU than the UK.

It really depends on what a structured exit would look like. Since it's moot, there is no clear answer. I think the future of our trade with the US in particular is uncertain in the wake of the patent cliff issues. Not sure about the rest of America (I presume you're referring only to North America) but I don't think there is a significant view on the subject as I haven't heard anyone actually discussing an Irish exit.

Scofflaw

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Excellent contribution. I'm not so sure that there are many advantages to the UK leaving, but is can't see how it benefits Ireland to be aligned with the EU without the UK. Given the enormous legal similarities between Ireland and the UK, I would think we should probably consider political and economic cooperation with the UK if they leave. Of course there are massive problems with that idea too. So, I don't think there is a clear answer.

I think the legal similarities are somewhat overplayed. We're not on the same voting side as the UK very often in the EU, although I'll grant you there may be some cooperative value in legislative drafting.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Cool Mo D

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Excellent contribution. I'm not so sure that there are many advantages to the UK leaving, but is can't see how it benefits Ireland to be aligned with the EU without the UK. Given the enormous legal similarities between Ireland and the UK, I would think we should probably consider political and economic cooperation with the UK if they leave. Of course there are massive problems with that idea too. So, I don't think there is a clear answer.

Why would we possibly want to align with the UK over the EU? The EU is a far more attractive trading partner, and the UK economy would be in big trouble if it cut itself off from the EU. Just because we have similar legal systems?

The UK leaving the EU would likely be bad for Ireland, and throw up a whole load of practical problems with the border and residency. But there could be a windfall of multinationals leaving London to set up in Ireland for access to EU markets.

ewan whose army

Cool Mo D wrote: »

Why would we possibly want to align with the UK over the EU? The EU is a far more attractive trading partner, and the UK economy would be in big trouble if it cut itself off from the EU. Just because we have similar legal systems?

The UK leaving the EU would likely be bad for Ireland, and throw up a whole load of practical problems with the border and residency. But there could be a windfall of multinationals leaving London to set up in Ireland for access to EU markets.

Actually since the UK imports more from the EU that it exports (note EU exports include anything routed through another EU country if it isn't sold there such as goods to Asia via Holland) the EU wouldn't do a tariff law since the EU would stand to loose out a lot if it tried that.

the perfect ten

Would there not have to be formal border controls between ourselves and the UK, including Northern Ireland?

ewan whose army

the perfect ten wrote: »

Would there not have to be formal border controls between ourselves and the UK, including Northern Ireland?

No, the UK Irish border is controlled under the Common Travel Area, an agreement that predates the EU considerably. Its related to the idea that Irish people can go and live in the UK visa free and actually vote there, and vice versa (as a UK citizen I can vote for the Dail)

Banjoxed

Well since the Irish State was already effected in (say) 1922, not much.

How the UK leaving the EU would affect the Republic of Ireland, now there's an interesting thread.

the perfect ten

ewan whose army wrote: »

No, the UK Irish border is controlled under the Common Travel Area, an agreement that predates the EU considerably. Its related to the idea that Irish people can go and live in the UK visa free and actually vote there, and vice versa (as a UK citizen I can vote for the Dail)

But that only applies to Irish and British citizens.

Surely EU law would require that all other nationalities would require a passport (or possibly a national identity card as exists in several EU countries) for all other people to enter the EU from outside?

whatstherush

ewan whose army wrote: »

Actually since the UK imports more from the EU that it exports (note EU exports include anything routed through another EU country if it isn't sold there such as goods to Asia via Holland) the EU wouldn't do a tariff law since the EU would stand to loose out a lot if it tried that.

This doesn't make sense. Let say there was a trade war and for arguments sake all trade between the EU and UK ceased. The UK would be losing access to a market for roughly 50% of its export goods where as the EU would be losing a market for 22% of its export goods. In this hypothetical both losses would be devastating, but 22% is a lot less then 50%.

View

ewan whose army wrote: »

Actually since the UK imports more from the EU that it exports (note EU exports include anything routed through another EU country if it isn't sold there such as goods to Asia via Holland) the EU wouldn't do a tariff law since the EU would stand to loose out a lot if it tried that.

If the UK leaves the EU then the standard level of tariffs that apply to all non-members of the EU would apply to the UK (save those who have - after years of negotiation - secured a free trade agreement with the EU).

Richard

the perfect ten wrote: »

Would there not have to be formal border controls between ourselves and the UK, including Northern Ireland?

No, only if Ireland joins Schengen.

realitykeeper

View wrote: »

If the UK leaves the EU then the standard level of tariffs that apply to all non-members of the EU would apply to the UK (save those who have - after years of negotiation - secured a free trade agreement with the EU).

If there was such a thing as competent Irish politicians, such an agreement would have been negotiated and put in place as a contingency years ago. Unfortunately, nationally elected politicians in this country spend their time on local issues in order to get re-elected. This is the same as bribery, even if nothing is given or promised in return.

Banjoxed

realitykeeper wrote: »

If there was such a thing as competent Irish politicians, such an agreement would have been negotiated and put in place as a contingency years ago. Unfortunately, nationally elected politicians in this country spend their time on local issues in order to get re-elected. This is the same as bribery, even if nothing is given or promised in return.

You'll have to dissolve the people and appoint a new one then. It's crap but the only way the system will change is by persuading all the local minded electorate that ultimately localism isn't in their long term interest.

View

realitykeeper wrote: »

If there was such a thing as competent Irish politicians, such an agreement would have been negotiated and put in place as a contingency years ago.

It takes considerable time and tax-payers' money to negotiate any trade agreement. There is no pressing reason why the governments of the member states would do so.

It isn't up to the governments of the other member states to figure out what the UK wants. Neither is there any reason for them to interfere in the UK's domestic politics which is what they would be doing by putting in place contingency agreements for a potential UK's EU exit.

View

Richard wrote: »

No, only if Ireland joins Schengen.

Under current EU law every EU member state is obliged to join Schengen except:
a) the UK which has absolute discretion on joining or not joining, and,
b) Ireland which has a conditional exception on the continuing existence of the UK-RoI CTA,

Should the UK depart the EU, UK related conditions such as a) above no longer apply in EU law, hence Ireland's conditional exception b) ceases to apply and we are then under EU law an "ordinary" EU member state obliged to join Schengen (and to avoid confusion, EU law trumps bilateral agreements with non-EU member states if those agreements do not comply fully with EU law).

ewan whose army

From what I understand an EU secession would take 5 years under Lisbon, I am assuming that is what the time is meant to be used for

keeponhurling

View wrote: »

Under current EU law every EU member state is obliged to join Schengen except:
a) the UK which has absolute discretion on joining or not joining, and,
b) Ireland which has a conditional exception on the continuing existence of the UK-RoI CTA,

Should the UK depart the EU, UK related conditions such as a) above no longer apply in EU law, hence Ireland's conditional exception b) ceases to apply and we are then under EU law an "ordinary" EU member state obliged to join Schengen (and to avoid confusion, EU law trumps bilateral agreements with non-EU member states if those agreements do not comply fully with EU law).

If Britain did leave EU and border controls were coming in anyways, it would make sense for us to join Schengen.

View

keeponhurling wrote: »

If Britain did leave EU and border controls were coming in anyways, it would make sense for us to join Schengen.

Well, I suspect that it makes sense for us to start examining the possibility now as we can attempt to quantify how to do it, the cost of doing it and what, if any, EU assistance we might receive were we to do so.

I'd imagine a last minute request for help from the rest of the EU would just look desperate whereas one planned well in advance can be calmed considered and we'd have a better chance of securing financial support (it being easier to commit to support when it is just a possibility it'll be called upon).

keeponhurling

Well yes, but also I'm sure there are costs it to.
I wouldn't invest too much in a contingency plan for something that might never happen, and is unlikely to happen at some undetermind date later than 2017.

UK exit from EU from presumably have a transition period as well.
What we would need to do would be small compared to what UK would have to do adminstratively

View

keeponhurling wrote: »

Well yes, but also I'm sure there are costs it to.
I wouldn't invest too much in a contingency plan for something that might never happen, and is unlikely to happen at some undetermind date later than 2017.

I would suggest we plan on joining Schengen at some stage irrespective of what the UK does, not just as a last minute panic driven contingency measure because of a UK EU exit.

Schengen is THE common travel area for Europe and we disadvantage ourselves by being outside it (as there are costs to being outside it just as there are other costs of being in it). We should intend to rectify that not leave it to the whim of the UK as to whether we join it.

Richard

View wrote: »

Under current EU law every EU member state is obliged to join Schengen except:
a) the UK which has absolute discretion on joining or not joining, and,
b) Ireland which has a conditional exception on the continuing existence of the UK-RoI CTA,

Should the UK depart the EU, UK related conditions such as a) above no longer apply in EU law, hence Ireland's conditional exception b) ceases to apply and we are then under EU law an "ordinary" EU member state obliged to join Schengen (and to avoid confusion, EU law trumps bilateral agreements with non-EU member states if those agreements do not comply fully with EU law).

That's not true. According to what you have said, Ireland's opt out from Schengen is conditional on the CTA existing, not the UK beImg an EU state. If the UK left the EU then its opt-out would no longer be required but the Irish one would still be in force.

In any case, even if what you said about Ireland having to join Schengen is true then they'd change the rules to either mean Ireland wouldn't have to join or that it could but with special arrangements to allow a similar situation as present to continue.

Remember that Russians have special arrangement for passing through EU territory between Kalliningrad and Russia proper.

View

Richard wrote: »

That's not true. According to what you have said, Ireland's opt out from Schengen is conditional on the CTA existing, not the UK beImg an EU state. If the UK left the EU then its opt-out would no longer be required but the Irish one would still be in force.

To clarify, the exemptions - from the Schengen commitment - exist under EU law. Should the UK leave the EU any and all exemptions it has under EU law obviously disappear as they are null and void. That means the exemption for Ireland therefore depends on a condition that no longer applies under EU law. Hence we are bound by the Schengen commitment like every other EU member state.

Richard wrote: »

In any case, even if what you said about Ireland having to join Schengen is true then they'd change the rules to either mean Ireland wouldn't have to join or that it could but with special arrangements to allow a similar situation as present to continue.

That is wildly improbable. Why should the other member states rewrite (and undertake the hassle and expense of ratifying) a treaty provision (Art 3.2 of the TEU) that we have already agreed to?

Remember the Schengen commitment exists as the default under EU law because we agreed to it just like we agreed to the conditional exemption.

Why should - on principle - any member state agree to us putting an arrangement with a non-EU member state ahead of our arrangements with the EU member states?

ewan whose army

Its pretty unlikely the UK will pull out anyway

(Reuters) - More Britons would vote to stay in the European Union than leave it, a poll showed on Tuesday, the first time the "in" camp has been ahead since Prime Minister David Cameron pledged a referendum on Britain's membership last year.

Cameron has promised to offer Britons a vote on whether to leave the 28-nation EU if he wins a national election next year.

Under pressure from eurosceptics in his Conservative party and the anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) ahead of European elections in May and the 2015 general election, Cameron has promised to first try to reshape Britain's ties with the EU.

YouGov said its poll of 3,195 adults, carried out on March 9 and 10, found 41 percent would vote for Britain to remain a member of the EU, while 39 percent would choose to leave.

Furthermore most young Brits like myself would vote to remain in

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/uk-britain-politics-europe-idUKBREA2A0TQ20140311

R.E The CTA, I heard Rabies was one of the reasons why the UK and Ireland opted out? That the UK may join when they are more convinced about border controls and disease control

Richard

View wrote: »

To clarify, the exemptions - from the Schengen commitment - exist under EU law.

You said that before. I know that.

Should the UK leave the EU any and all exemptions it has under EU law obviously disappear as they are null and void.

Well, yes the UK will no longer require exemptions.

That means the exemption for Ireland therefore depends on a condition that no longer applies under EU law.

No, the Irish exemption does not depend on the UK being a member state. It depends on the existence of the CTA, which is a bilateral agreement between two states, not governed by UK law.

Hence we are bound by the Schengen commitment like every other EU member state.

No

That is wildly improbable. Why should the other member states rewrite (and undertake the hassle and expense of ratifying) a treaty provision (Art 3.2 of the TEU) that we have already agreed to?

Not really. Given that there is an opt-out already in place, even if what you say is true, another one could be agreed. There are special arrangements for places like Gibraltar and the Canaries (part of the EU) and Kaliningrad (not part if the EU).

There are opt-outs from the Euro currency officially (UK/Denmark) and unofficially (Sweden and anyone else who choses not to meet the joining criteria such as being in EMU II).

If it came to it and Ireland supposedly had to join and didn't, what would happen? - absolutely nothing! The fact that border controls would have to established with Northern Ireland would make the Irish government doing anything to avoid it.

Why should - on principle - any member state agree to us putting an arrangement with a non-EU member state ahead of our arrangements with the EU member states?

Because they do it already?