GOLD CUP

stretchaq

just looking through the field for the gold cup is there any horse which can get near Bobs worth and Silviano Conti??

CC wont stay surely going for Ryanair
Long run probably wont even turn up spent force anyway I think
first lieutenant hasn't being good enough for gold cup yet
Sir Des Champs injured
Boston Bob mightn't turn up
Rubi ball dark horse

with BW available at 3.3 and silviano conti at 4.6 thinking of some serious bets someone talk me out of it???????:D

Dubron

Only bet I'd even consider at the moment is First Lieutenant at 12/1 NRNB with Bet365. No way he's a 12s shot if he turns up on the day.

stretchaq

Dubron wrote: »

Only bet I'd even consider at the moment is First Lieutenant at 12/1 NRNB with Bet365. No way he's a 12s shot if he turns up on the day.

Would he stay the gold cup trip??? I doubt it?

davesmith7

Seems good in theory Stetchaq, but it is horse racing....,..anything could happen.

hucklebuck

I think Rubi Ball is a better ew option that FL and I have backed him.

His Lexus run was mightily impressive and he could improve for it.

FL may not get the trip, dont forget its 2f longer than the Lexus and Bobs was scooting away and its 5f longer than the Ryanair where CC was scooting away.

Dubron

stretchaq wrote: »

Would he stay the gold cup trip??? I doubt it?

2nd in the Lexus twice on soft ground, I know he was pretty much out stayed both times but I'd rather have an each way bet at 12s NRNB than lump on BW and SC at those prices on Betfair as the OP suggested.

stretchaq

I would be considering having a good wedge on bobs worth and then putting an ew saver on SC really think its between them all others seem to have stones to find

NaiveMelodies

hucklebuck wrote: »

I think Rubi Ball is a better ew option that FL and I have backed him.

His Lexus run was mightily impressive and he could improve for it.

FL may not get the trip, dont forget its 2f longer than the Lexus and Bobs was scooting away and its 5f longer than the Ryanair where CC was scooting away.

Is Rubi Ball confirmed as being aimed at the GC?
Was half thinking he might go for the Aintree Bowl, just a hunch, although with SDC out he may be likely for the GC.

The Mig

Can't see BW being beaten to be honest.

slimshady007

Couldnt agree more with the OP. Rubi Ball got the run of the race in the lexus and Ruby has said he needs it soft which wouldnt be guaranteed in the gold cup. I think bobs worth tho will win it again. Unbeaten at cheltenham - loves the hill. FL will not stay the trip as well as BW but may get a place. SC was travelling well last year wen he fell but not sure he would've beaten BW who won going away. Long Run is been aimed at handicaps so cant see him going for the gold cup.

kiers47

Long Run is being talked up for a tilt at the national depending on entries there is a chance he might not even have top weight.
I do agree that bobs worth is the most likely winner not sure I'd want to be going in at 2/1 at this stage but each to their own.

jimjamcos

Can only see two horses winning it, either Bobs Worth or Silvinianco. Field will almost surely be weaker than last years with Long Run finished and SDC out. Have never been a fan of SC but we know he travels well and on his King George win, he looks a proper stayer He's the only real unknown for a Bobs Worth backer. If the champ can be backed at 2's on the day though, I'd rate him a good bet. Unbeaten at track and unbeaten when getting to the front so hard to see any horse outstaying him if he's there come the hill.

First Lieutentant will be a sight and a half, jumping like the best horse in the race, but no way could I see him outstaying the top two. The two outsiders I'd be interested in are Al Ferof and Last Instalment. I'm convinced that Al Ferof is a Cheltenham beast same as Bobs Worth and Champagne and can see him saving his best for the festival. Think Hales will go all out for a Gold Cup run if his prep goes any way well, too. The aul fella is in it for the big wins! Last Instalment will be a serious player if he, miraculously, turns up on the day.

oPATCHo

Dunno whether this is out of pure stupidity.... but hey, here it goes.

Theres no question that the two market leaders, and we know both will travel well in March - Conti was looking good last year before falling (seemed to be more of a mistake than tiredness). BW is a beast at Chelt... but I'm not getting stuck into any of these 2/1's and I've missed all of the decent ante post prices, so will save my bet until March.

However... (here comes the stupidity), I still have a small fancy for Cue Card. Obviously connections will need to decide whether they want to go for the big one or go elsewhere with CC after the KG run, which the jockey and trainer didnt seem all that disappointed with.

Think people are forgetting that CC finished 11L ahead of Al Ferof - a horse that many backed to win that day and was claimed to be a so called 'stayer' after winning the Paddy Power. As for the rest, Dynaste was terribly disappointing, the outsider Mount Benbulben finished a distant 17L, Long Run fell for the first time and the remaining contenders pulled up. For me, this suggests this was a almighty and gruelling race, which adds weight to the form of the first two. It would be interesting to try and compare the KG with the Lexus Chase - but I'll save that for another day.

So, we come back to Cue Card...

- a horse that has only race three times over 3 miles and has capacity for improvement over this distance
- is another one who's a beast at Cheltenham; 3 wins and 2 seconds in 7 appearances, and thus is likely to put in an improved performance in March
- has a proven record over left handed tracks, more so than right handed. Again, room for improvement come March


I started this post with a simple "don't rule out CC just yet" but thought I'd try and justify why I still have him in my shortlist.

I'm not saying that CC will win the KC, hey might not even line up for big one.... I just think he shouldn't be blindly ruled out.

He remains a 8/1 NRNB selection for me

davesmith7

I really feel that Cue Card could win the GC, but they will need to put more stamina emphasis in his training. Also they need to ride him slightly differently. No horse has led the GC from pillar to post, if you make your own running it takes more out of a horse. They need to ride him a different way, switching him off during the race then taking it up from around 10 out. That should give him enough staying power.

madmoose

Cue card will not stay 3 and a quarter miles at cheltenham im certain of that, when pressed at kempton but conti he emptied alarmingly at the end and at chelt wouldnt get his own way again in the gc. He will win the ryanair yet again though.

jimjamcos

oPATCHo wrote: »

Dunno whether this is out of pure stupidity.... but hey, here it goes.

Theres no question that the two market leaders, and we know both will travel well in March - Conti was looking good last year before falling (seemed to be more of a mistake than tiredness). BW is a beast at Chelt... but I'm not getting stuck into any of these 2/1's and I've missed all of the decent ante post prices, so will save my bet until March.

However... (here comes the stupidity), I still have a small fancy for Cue Card. Obviously connections will need to decide whether they want to go for the big one or go elsewhere with CC after the KG run, which the jockey and trainer didnt seem all that disappointed with.

Think people are forgetting that CC finished 11L ahead of Al Ferof - a horse that many backed to win that day and was claimed to be a so called 'stayer' after winning the Paddy Power. As for the rest, Dynaste was terribly disappointing, the outsider Mount Benbulben finished a distant 17L, Long Run fell for the first time and the remaining contenders pulled up. For me, this suggests this was a almighty and gruelling race, which adds weight to the form of the first two. It would be interesting to try and compare the KG with the Lexus Chase - but I'll save that for another day.

So, we come back to Cue Card...

- a horse that has only race three times over 3 miles and has capacity for improvement over this distance
- is another one who's a beast at Cheltenham; 3 wins and 2 seconds in 7 appearances, and thus is likely to put in an improved performance in March
- has a proven record over left handed tracks, more so than right handed. Again, room for improvement come March


I started this post with a simple "don't rule out CC just yet" but thought I'd try and justify why I still have him in my shortlist.

I'm not saying that CC will win the KC, hey might not even line up for big one.... I just think he shouldn't be blindly ruled out.

He remains a 8/1 NRNB selection for me

I agree with you that Cue Card loves Cheltenham and may be slightly better left-handed while you could also mention the pre King George Tizzard yard virus at a push. However, he was travelling way to well to have any excuses from the King George. He looked the best horse and winner all over before hitting the stamina wall. Nicholls and Fehily are sure to implement the same pressurizing tactics again so can't see Joe getting a breather into him. Wherever Cue Card finishes I can't see him reversing placings with SC.

oPATCHo

jimjamcos wrote: »

I agree with you that Cue Card loves Cheltenham and may be slightly better left-handed while you could also mention the pre King George Tizzard yard virus at a push. However, he was travelling way to well to have any excuses from the King George. He looked the best horse and winner all over before hitting the stamina wall. Nicholls and Fehily are sure to implement the same pressurizing tactics again so can't see Joe getting a breather into him. Wherever Cue Card finishes I can't see him reversing placings with SC.

.. they also have Bobs Worth in the race this time round, so they'll have to balance their tactics out. It wont be ALL about beating CC.

I hope CC runs it, otherwise the GC will be thin on serious contenders

longshotvalue

jimjamcos wrote: »

I agree with you that Cue Card loves Cheltenham and may be slightly better left-handed while you could also mention the pre King George Tizzard yard virus at a push. However, he was travelling way to well to have any excuses from the King George. He looked the best horse and winner all over before hitting the stamina wall. Nicholls and Fehily are sure to implement the same pressurizing tactics again so can't see Joe getting a breather into him. Wherever Cue Card finishes I can't see him reversing placings with SC.

I've looked at the king george a few times and although he looked to empty 2 out, i'm not sure it was a typical non staying performance as he lost a load of ground before the fence and then more or less kept pace until the line. He didnt really slow to a crawl only for what looked a few strides . I think on better ground he may well not be out of it at all in the Gold Cup.

stretchaq

aidankkk wrote: »

I've looked at the king george a few times and although he looked to empty 2 out, i'm not sure it was a typical non staying performance as he lost a load of ground before the fence and then more or less kept pace until the line. He didnt really slow to a crawl only for what looked a few strides . I think on better ground he may well not be out of it at all in the Gold Cup.

I do somewhat agree with aidans statement however I don't think he has the stamina for the extra 3 furlongs I would be amazed if he wasn't in Ryanair perhaps even champion chase if SS doesn't turn up I think willie Mullins said about quevega it's better to win any race in Cheltenham than place in 1 of the big 4

longshotvalue

stretchaq wrote: »

I do somewhat agree with aidans statement however I don't think he has the stamina for the extra 3 furlongs I would be amazed if he wasn't in Ryanair perhaps even champion chase if SS doesn't turn up I think willie Mullins said about quevega it's better to win any race in Cheltenham than place in 1 of the big 4

Is Sprinter Sacre isnt going , cue card will be absolutely nailed on for Champion Chase and id imagine they would be happy to win that.. He looks miles clear of the rest in that race..

davesmith7

Willie Mullins would say that because he has only won the Champion Hurdle out of the big four while Nicholls and Henderson have won them all. I would disagree. The other races at the festival are insignificant when compared to Gold Cup, Champion Chase and Champion Hurdle. FACT Mullins best record is in the champion bumper which says it all. His horses are piss poor at jumping fences. Never has tough animals.

ComplyOrDie

Am I missing something, why do people think FL does not stay????? at 12/1 he is a cracking bet. His jumping is fantastic and while he has it to do to beat Bob he will put it up to him and should be in the money. Just look how consistent he is in G1's. He will have the hill to contend with but he will more than likely have better ground....he even beat SC over 3m1f in Aintree

2nd bt 1.5L in G1 ovr 3m soft
3rd bt 1.25L in G1 ovr 3m1f Soft/Heavy
1st by .75L in G1 ovr 3m1f Good

ComplyOrDie

davesmith7 wrote: »

Willie Mullins would say that because he has only won the Champion Hurdle out of the big four while Nicholls and Henderson have won them all. I would disagree. The other races at the festival are insignificant when compared to Gold Cup, Champion Chase and Champion Hurdle. FACT Mullins best record is in the champion bumper which says it all. His horses are piss poor at jumping fences. Never has tough animals.

davesmith7 what can I say, WOW where did you pull that fact from?? I said to myself that cant be true and then started thinking the more I thought the harder it became to prove you wrong...then I had to Google it......Willie has only won 1 of the big 4.
I'm still kind of shocked :eek:

davesmith7

Yeah he's been training since 88 and only won CH in 11. I just don't understand why his horses that win the bumper, excellent novice hurdlers and the odd decent novice chaser don't train on. His chasers always seem to fall and get injured, make mistakes or underperform. Arvika Legionaire, Sir DES Champs. Felix Yonger, Champagne Fever, that horse in the listed race yesterday. The biggest jumps race he won recently was in Japan. Given the turnover he has, and money being spent on his horses, it's a very bad record.

The Mig

Have many of the current top Irish trainers won more than 1 of the 4?

davesmith7

Mouse Morris has won the Gold Cup, World Hurdle and Champion Chase. Dessie Hughes has also won Champion Hurdle twice.

jimjamcos

Have you looked into how many favs he's had beaten in the big 4 down the years? I haven't FWIW but does seem strange given how strong he is now. Still though, I'd give him a few years with his current bunch to see as they're undoubtedly the best he's ever had.

byronbay2

aidankkk wrote: »

Is Sprinter Sacre isnt going , cue card will be absolutely nailed on for Champion Chase and id imagine they would be happy to win that.. He looks miles clear of the rest in that race..

I wouldn't say he was nailed on but would certainly have a great chance. I reckon SS will run but, if he doesn't, would agree that CC should run there. Otherwise, CC should go for the Ryanair, which he won so convincingly last year. I would fancy him to win that again.

I don't fancy CC for the Gold Cup at all. This is always a grinding slog of a race, invariably won by thorough stayer. If CC couldn't stay 3 miles at Kempton (whatever about the ground), he won't stay 3 miles 2 furlongs at Cheltenham.

stretchaq

it is intresting that with all the opinions in this thread we are down to 4 live contenders in my opinion
FL - who I cant see winning at this stage think he is just a small bit off top class
CC- probably wont run
im then back to BW and SC ya think I will make a good bet

hucklebuck

davesmith7 wrote: »

Mouse Morris has won the Gold Cup, World Hurdle and Champion Chase. Dessie Hughes has also won Champion Hurdle twice.

Byrnes won a World Hurdle

yaboya1

First Lieutenant does stay, just not as strongly as some of the main contenders. I think he might well be placed but it's difficult to see him beating Bobs Worth who is 3-0 against him in their head to head meetings.

hucklebuck

yaboya1 wrote: »

just not as strongly as some of the main contenders.

Surely that is the same thing

Using that rationale Sizing Europe could get the Gold Cup trip, he would not stay on as strongly as Bobs Worth as he would be walking home.

yaboya1

hucklebuck wrote: »

Surely that is the same thing

Using that rationale Sizing Europe could get the Gold Cup trip, he would not stay on as strongly as Bobs Worth as he would be walking home.

Yes, I kind of agree with you except that First Lieutenant has won a Grade 1 over 3m1f, has been placed in the Lexus twice, the Punchestown Gold Cup once and the Hennessy over 3m21/2f. I doubt Sizing Europe could do the same. I could see First Lieutenant placing in the Gold Cup (but not winning). Sizing Europe would never place in a Gold Cup.

jimjamcos

hucklebuck wrote: »

Surely that is the same thing

Using that rationale Sizing Europe could get the Gold Cup trip, he would not stay on as strongly as Bobs Worth as he would be walking home.

Technically any horse could get the GC trip. Might fall over the line but they'd get it. He's right about FL - he's stayer but does not stay as well as BW and maybe SC. Sizing isn't.

yaboya1

The reason I can't see him winning is because I can't see him finishing ahead of Bobs Worth. However, if something was to happen to that horse, I wouldn't be so quick to say he couldn't beat the rest of them.
I don't think you could say the same about Sizing Europe no matter how bad the field was.

davesmith7

Cue Card would have beaten SC if it was good ground in Kempton. Kings Theatre horses prefer good ground. If it comes up good can see CC winning. He has a high enough dosage index for that distance. No one says Captain Chris doesn't stay. He's less stoutly bread than Cue Card. They need to change tactics though running from the front like that would reck any horse. They did nt need to do it in Ryanair last year. At 8-1 that's my bet.

kiers47

davesmith7 wrote: »

Cue Card would have beaten SC if it was good ground in Kempton. Kings Theatre horses prefer good ground. If it comes up good can see CC winning. He has a high enough dosage index for that distance. No one says Captain Chris doesn't stay. He's less stoutly bread than Cue Card. They need to change tactics though running from the front like that would reck any horse. They did nt need to do it in Ryanair last year. At 8-1 that's my bet.

I suggest you watch last years ryanair again dave. The horse led from flag fall(might have been headed a couple of times by champion court due to sloppy jumps).
I have suggested numerous times before and after last years king george that the horse needs to be set out in front and left to his own devices. Is it any coincidence that most of his big triumphs have been when he races from the front? I doubt it!!

davesmith7

Sorry I should of watched that. Yes maybe your right. Do you think that would work for GC? Is there any other way they could approach it. Also will they get prep run over 3miles into him?? I don't think Tizzard knows what he's doing yet!Is there a way to train jumps horses to improve stamina?

kiers47

davesmith7 wrote: »

Sorry I should of watched that. Yes maybe your right. Do you think that would work for GC? Is there any other way they could approach it. Also will they get prep run over 3miles into him?? I don't think Tizzard knows what he's doing yet!Is there a way to train jumps horses to improve stamina?

An average GC i think it possibly could but we havent had one of them for a while and Bobs worth is a top notch stayer.
I am a massive fan of the horse. If i was involved with him i would be going for the Ryanair. I just dont think the horse will be beating Bobs Worth over 3 and a quarter around cheltenham and thats only 1 potential treat.
What i would be doing is seriously considering the Champion Chase if there is any doubts about Sprinter Sacre.
But other than that i would be going the same route as last year with Ryanair and Aintree.

mailburner

was convinced last march that it would be bobs worth again and
I see no reason to change my mind
looks a weaker renewal
price will be awful on the day though 6/4/7/4

there appears to be very little to beat bob although I didn't
see boston bobs last run yet

for punting purposes I really hope they take the ryanair route with cc but
who could blame them for having a go in what looks like the weakest
gold cup for years

hucklebuck

jimjamcos wrote: »

Technically any horse could get the GC trip. Might fall over the line but they'd get it. He's right about FL - he's stayer but does not stay as well as BW and maybe SC. Sizing isn't.

Tongue in cheek my man, not much point in being a poor stayer against strong stayers imo.

The further they go the further Bobs and Conti finish ahead of First Lieutenant. Riverside Theatre and For Non Stop were getting back at FL at the end of the Ryanair too.

Dr. Bre

36 left in gold cup http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/horse-racing/25655435

oPATCHo

CC 85% heading to Gold Cup

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/colin-tizzard-cue-card-almost-certain-to-go-for-gold-cup/1592706/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

IMO, they're waiting to confirm if ground will come up decent.. if it does, CC will run GC... and I'll be there to donate my hard earned cash to the book makers

Dr. Bre

if cc didnt stay 3 mile at kempton which is flat hard to see him staying 3m2 at chelt

ste2010

Dr. Bre wrote: »

if cc didnt stay 3 mile at kempton which is flat hard to see him staying 3m2 at chelt

You could argue Imperial commander couldn't handle kempton yet he went on to beat the best 3m chasers of the decade. If the gold cup came up good , good to soft cue card would have them all at it down the back straight. Even though he's not the strongest stayer he might not need to be this year

The Mig

ste2010 wrote: »

cue card would have them all at it down the back straight.

If he tries to do that, I could see him finishing the last furlong absolutely legless with Bobs Worth flying by him

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

You could argue Imperial commander couldn't handle kempton yet he went on to beat the best 3m chasers of the decade. If the gold cup came up good , good to soft cue card would have them all at it down the back straight. Even though he's not the strongest stayer he might not need to be this year

He'll definitely need to be if SC and BW show up. Whatever about Bobs Worth, Silvinianco showed he could go with him at Kempton so no reason to think he can't at Cheltenham.

NaiveMelodies

The Mig wrote: »

If he tries to do that, I could see him finishing the last furlong absolutely legless with Bobs Worth flying by him

Ultimately this is what I envisage happening.
All going well, Cue Card will leave most of the field with too much work to do to catch him.
But once he jumps ok without any huge errors, Bobs Worth will be well able to get past him imo.

ste2010

jimjamcos wrote: »

He'll definitely need to be if SC and BW show up. Whatever about Bobs Worth, Silvinianco showed he could go with him at Kempton so no reason to think he can't at Cheltenham.

I don't think SC will figure. Wouldn't surprise me if his run reflects that of his ability in aintree last season

mr.jingle

ste2010 wrote: »

I don't think SC will figure. Wouldn't surprise me if his run reflects that of his ability in aintree last season

He was going as well as any when he tipped up last year, with his stamina guaranteed by his King George win he's the main danger to Bobs Worth. If all 3 stay up without major mistakes coming around 2m4/5f i'd imagine Bobs Worth being niggled along with 3 or 4 to go with Cue Card tanking along at the front with a stalking SIlviniaco Conti to take it up coming to the last as Cue Card gives way and Bob's Worth getting up to nail Silviniaco Conti in the last 100

jimjamcos

I was never a big SC fan and paid little heed to all his supporters and Nicholls talk of how well he was going in last years race and how close he would have went. Must admit though, I was very impressed with his KG performance considering the way it was run. He showed class to go that gallop with Cue Card for as long as he did and proved himself a dour stayer. Still think Bobs Worth will pass him up hill mind.